June 9th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)And right back into it with a 1-2-0 day and my baseball picks being perfectly wrong. That will change. Took the White Sox to start off, errors, balks, and walks doomed them. Then Texas for a win, and ended with the Diamondbacks' weak lineup not being able to keep up with San Diego with Reynolds and Upton out of the lineup. So on to the picks.

Recaps

Fucking Tigers Win Fucking Game, South Siders Slide Off Pace Of Detroit

Detroit Tigers 5 - 4 Chicago White Sox

``If this was the 1980s, [none] of these guys would be in the big leagues right now, because if you hit .210-.230 and you can't execute, I don't think you should be out here. When you can't bunt, hit-and-run, squeeze and move the guy over, you better hit 40 home runs and drive in 140."
---White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen

The White Sox committed three errors and Richard walked in a run in this one.

``Miguel Cabrera opened the ninth by reaching on third baseman Josh Fields' error. Marcus Thames followed with an infield single off shortstop Alexei Ramirez's glove. Inge then grounded a single into left field off Scott Linebrink (2-3), scoring pinch-runner Josh Anderson from second base. Chicago starter Clayton Richard lost his control in the fifth with two outs. Magglio Ordonez singled before Richard walked three straight batters, including Inge to force in a run, and put Detroit ahead 3-1."

Read more....Box Score

Texas Longhorns Advance To College World Series

Texas Longhorns 5 - 2 TCU Horned Frogs

``Freshman Taylor Jungmann allowed two hits over six innings Monday night and top-seeded Texas earned its first trip to the College World Series since 2005 with a 5-2 win over TCU. Jungmann got himself out of his only jam in the sixth inning. A single and hit batter put two runners on with no outs. But Jungmann got the next two hitters to ground right back to the mound. The first he threw to third for the first out of the inning. The second started a double play that ended it. TCU finally scored in the top of the eighth. Pinch hitter Hunt Woodruff doubled and scored on Coret Steglich's single to center. The Horned Frogs added another in the ninth when Matt Vern tripled off Wood and scored on Bryan Holaday's single that sent Wood to the bench. Ruffin replaced Wood with one out in the ninth and picked up his second save."

Read more....TCU's RecapBox Score

Peavy Recovers From 1 Inning Start To Lead Padres To Victory; Kouzmanoff Wasn't Bad Neither

San Diego Padres 6 - 3 Arizona Diamondbacks

Peavy was the better pitcher here, striking out 8 and walking 1, while Garland walked 5 and struck out 1.

``Kevin Kouzmanoff tied his career-high with four RBIs and Jake Peavy bounced back from the shortest start of his career to lead the San Diego Padres to a 6-3 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday night. Peavy (6-6), bothered recently by tendinitis in his right ankle, appeared to be limping as he walked to the dugout after the top of the seventh inning and after laying down a sacrifice bunt in the bottom of the fifth. Kouzmanoff chased Garland when his two-out double in the seventh dropped in just beyond the glove of Eric Byrnes, who was trying to run it down in left-center. Gwynn was aboard on a walk and Gonzalez had been intentionally walked ahead of Kouzmanoff."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Poland vs. Iraq - Poland win
2) Shelbourne @ Crumlin United - 3 goals or more
3) Seattle Storm @ Indiana Fever - Seattle
4) Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals - Cincinnati
5) St. Louis Cardinals @ Florida Marlins - Florida
6) New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox - Boston
7) Detroit Red Wings @ Pittsburgh Penguins - Pittsburgh
8) Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers - Milwaukee
9) Which Quarter Will See More Points: 1^st quarter vs. 2^nd quarter - 1^st quarter
10) Los Angeles Lakers @ Orlando Magic - Orlando
11) Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics - Oakland
12) San Diego Padres total hits vs. Chad Billingsley strikeouts - Billingsley strikeouts

Picks
2) Crumlin United currently lie in 7^th place of Division 1A (the 2^nd tier) of the Northern Amateur League._link They are 16 points off promotion to the Premier of the NAL and realistically will not be promoted this season. That means their best chance of success lies in the national Cup tournaments. They already won the FAI Umbro Intermediate Challenge Cup, the 2^nd tier cup to the FAI Ford Senior Challenge Cup which today's match is involved in. Their homepage is absent of any news regarding this match, but that is most likely due to a part-time webmaster than a nonchalant attitude towards the match.

Shelsbourne have more pressing concerns, such as promotion into the Irish Premier.

Crumlin, winners of the FAI Intermediate Cup, will not be promoted to the Premier of the Northern Amateur League and are focused on today's match.

The players of Shelbourne know Crumlin will be up for this match.

There is no injury news for Crumlin United, so I assume they will put out their strongest side, while Shelbourne have three first team injuries to contend with. Defender Damien Brennan and midfielders Richie Baker and Mark O'Brien are all likely to miss out for this match. Looking at their respective league tables one sees Crumlin has played 28 matches and there have been a total of 100 goals scored in them. Shelbourne have played 13 matches with only 28 goals scored in total. Because Shelbourne are a professional side while Crumlin are an intermediate club Shelbourne are overwhelming favorites at 2/9 compared to 11/1 for Crumlin at some books. Crumlin may take an all-out defensive approach to this game, though their attack has proven effective against more senior clubs than themselves at earlier stages of this competition. Even if Crumlin play defensively it may not be enough to keep Shelbourne out of the goal, but I can certainly see the game being played to a low score and am just hoping Crumlin can scratch a goal out.

"When you play junior or intermediate clubs in the cup you know that the minimum you will get is a battle. Their focus will be totally on this game and we have to match them."
---Shelbourne defender Kevin Doherty

San Diego Padres' Total Hits Minus Opposing Starters' Strikeouts

The Padres generally have more hits than batters struck out by the opposing team's starter, but have failed to do so twice against Billingsley this season.

12) The San Diego Padres visit Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers. Los Angeles are 22-8 at Dodger Stadium this season, leading the Majors in home winning percentage. San Diego has not had much luck there themselves, being swept in a 3 game series earlier this season. In those three games they had 4, 3, and 6 total hits, well below their season average of 7.9 hits per game. In their other four games against the Dodgers, in San Diego, they had 5, 6, 3, and 7 hits. Looking at the graph above one can see Chad Billingsley had more strikeouts than the Padres had hits both times he started against them this season. Obviously, the Dodgers' starting pitching is solid, but it's their bullpen that has kept teams down. Over 199 innings they have given up a total of 176 hits, or 0.88 per inning.

Proportion of Padres' games with 'N' hits or less. Notice they have 7 or fewer runs in 50.9% of their games.

With Billiingsley giving up 0.78 hits per inning himself the Padres can't expect to get much relief from the Dodgers' relievers.

To the right we have a graph showing the proportion of Padres games where San Diego gets 'N' hits or fewer. One can see they have gotten 7 hits or fewer in 50.9% of their games. With Billingsley averaging 7.3 strikeouts through 12 starts this season he would appear to have a 50/50 chance of at least tying the Padres' total hits in this game. I favor Billingsley to get more strikeouts in Dodger Stadium, however, where the Padres have averaged 4.3 hits per game this season.