Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Thursday, June 18, 2009

June 18th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)2-0-0 today with Kassid and the Iraqis playing solid disicplined football and Lincecum battling through the 8th inning to earn his eighth and ninth K's. I think I need to make some modifications to the mp3 player so it will play streams online. I guess the only real utility of that would be to listen to music on a device with a sound card, but no playback software. Hah. I guess I can be pleased most of my losing picks went down in ridiculously close games but really I'm kind of ticked the bad luck douchebag drained all over my picks. Fair warning, tomorrow's picks will almost assuredly go down in flames. I imagine there'll be a streak extending path in there somewhere, good luck finding it. And on to the picks.

I'll be updating the layout today, but I'll also try and get up a preview of the Cabrera v. Pujols total bases prop. One thing to keep in mind, Piniero may not give up runs, but his BAA for the season is over .300, much worse than Porcello's.


David Villa Brings The House Down Around Bora And Iraq
Spain 1 - 0 Iraq (David Villa 54')
Bora Multinovic got the best out of his Iraq squad but it was not quite enough as Spain continued their undefeated streak to 34 matches.
``Iraq played with a lot of dignity. They played a smart game and played to their limits and made it very diffuclt for us today."
---Spain coach Vicente del Bosque
``Forward David Villa's powerful 55th minute header made him Spain's second highest scorer of all time with 30 goals - 14 behind Raul's record of 44. Spain had to work hard against the ultra-defensive Asian champions who, despite drawing their opening match 0-0 against South Africa and losing this one without scoring a goal are still in with a chance of reaching the last four."
Read more....Box ScoreBBCCBCUEFAVideo Highlights

Lincecum Gets Touched Up In The 8th, Angels Win
Los Angeles Angels 4 - 3 San Francisco Giants (Tim Lincecum 8 IP/9 K)
A disappointing loss after a strong showing for Tim Lincecum.
``Los Angeles' eighth began with singles from pinch-hitters Torii Hunter and Vladimir Guerrero, who fell behind on the count 0-2 before grounding a low pitch up the middle past shortstop Edgar Renteria. Hunter scored on Chone Figgins' double -- a line drive off the glove of second baseman Downs, who dove for the ball but couldn't quite snare it. Erick Aybar's infield single to deep shortstop scored Guerrero with the tying run. Figgins advanced to third on a passed ball and, after Maicer Izturis struck out, scored on Juan Rivera's groundout to third base. San Francisco's infield was playing in, yet third baseman Pablo Sandoval threw to first base even though Figgins was barely more than halfway home when he gloved Rivera's chopper."
Read more....Box ScoreAngels' Recap

1) Tiger Woods vs. Padraig Harrington/Angel Caberera - Woods cards a lower first round score
2) Zach Johnson vs. Lee Westwood - Westwood cards a lower front 9 score
3) Brazil win margin vs. United States goals scored - Brazil win margin
4) Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds - Atlanta
5) Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs - White Sox
6) Italy vs. Egypt - 3 goals or more
7) Arizona State vs. North Carolina - Arizona State
8) New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles - Baltimore
9) Miguel Cabrera vs. Albert Pujols - Cabrera records more total bases
10) Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals - Arizona
11) Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Los Angeles
12) Oakland @ Los Angeles (Will There Be A Run Scored In The 1st Inning): Yes vs. No - Yes

Brazil seeks a return to form with a convincing victory over a gutsy United States side.
3) The United States will seek to claw out a place over Italy or Brazil in the semifinals of the Confederations Cup, though it would most likely require a win today to do so. Brazil can clinch their place in the semifinals with a victory over Landon Donovan and the United States, and would like to accomplish not only that but a return to the form that saw them cruise through their South American World Cup qualifying stage most recently. Click here for a selection of previews from the BBC, ESPN, FIFA.com and more. SkyBet has placed odds on the particular scoreline for this match and I must say it does not look good for the U.S. Converting to percentages and removing the sportsbooks' profits the odds for Brazil to have a larger winning margin are 66.1%, for the U.S. to have more team goals 22.4%, and for the total to be equal 11.5%.
Recent Form/Results
BrazilUnited States
Egypt (4:3)Italy (1:3)
Paraguay (2:1)Honduras (2:1)
Uruguay (4:0)Costa Rica (1:3)
Peru (3:0)Trinidad & Tobago (3:0)
Ecuador (1:1)El Salvador (2:2)
Scores reported as (team:opponent)
The U.S. will rely heavily on Landon Donovan to create and will need players like Jozy Altidore to do better finishing if they hope to beat Julio Caesar (Brazil's keeper) and keep their semifinal hopes alive. Brazil has a powerful counter attack with superior speed and dribbling ability so the U.S. will also need to move away from traditional football and play a more possession styled approach. Unfortunately, I do not see the U.S. team as being disciplined enough to pull this off and it will only be through extraordinary luck that they may be able to keep pace with Brazil's scoring. With a penalty here and a questionable offsides call going their way there they may be able to secure a draw, but I somewhat expect Brazil to come out with a fury and to score quickly and repeatedly as they seek to reestablish themselves in this tournament.
``Over the last few years we (Brazil) have played a good number of matches against the United States. We may have won most of those games and have the edge in the overall record, but not a single one of those games was easy for us. I remember our last meeting, in 2007 in Miami, the 4-2 scoreline may not show it, but we had to fight hard for that win. The US team is tactically very disciplined and organised and I am sure Dunga will brief us properly to face them the right way and to avoid the kind of mistakes we made in the second half against Egypt," ---Brazil midfielder Kaka
``After losing our opener, this game against Brazil is now a must-win for us. We know we can give a hard game to any team we meet and Brazil will be no different. We need to put the first game with Italy behind us and bounce back by getting right at Brazil." ---USA forward Landon Donovan

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