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And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Monday, April 6, 2009

April 6th, 2009 Picks

1-3-0 on a day that could have easily been 3-1-0. My first pick was Switzerland rather than Everton. The Germans were ahead 7-5 after 8 ends but the Swiss pulled off an amazing 4-0 9th end to take a 9-7 lead. The Germans tied things up in the 10th to force an 11th and won the final end 1-0 and 10-9 overall. My second pick was Tony Parker points and assists. It was nice to see both players in the prop have great starts with LeBron going for 18 points in the first quarter and Parker netting 14 points and 1 assist. LeBron and the Cavaliers dominated in the game, however, and James ended up with 38 points on 14 for 21 shooting from the field and 8 for 8 from the line. Parker finished with 24 points but only 4 assists.

My third pick was Dallas. It was a special day for the Mavericks as Jason Kidd passed Magic Johnson for third all-time in assists in the second quarter. He picked up his 16th assist in the first half when he inbounded the ball with just under 2 seconds left to Josh Howard who promptly made a 71 foot three pointer! The Mavericks were playing alright defense and getting every bounce as they shot 60% from the field for the entire game. Final score, Dallas 140, Phoenix 116.

My final pick was Oklahoma, which was against what I was thinking when I posted my blog. I figured Louisville had made it to the final four by winning on the road while Oklahoma had been winning at home. With Louisville being a 3 seed in the tournament they had beaten the top seeds on the road while Oklahoma had been beating lower seeds at home. Well, I went against my own advice. Oklahoma had a 12 point lead at the half but promptly gave it up in the second as Louisville went on a 20-4 run to take the lead. The game was close from there, but with Louisville up two and 2 seconds to go Nyeshia Stevenson missed her 8th three pointer of the night and Louisville grabbed the rebound to win the game 61-59. So on to a new series of picks to pick against!

1) Norway vs. United States – Norway
2) Galatasaray @ Gaziantepspor – Gaziantepspor win or draw
3) New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds – NY Mets
4) Cleveland Indians @ Texas Rangers – Texas
5) Total Runs Scored vs. Webb SO and BB – Total Runs Scored
6) Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox – Tampa Bay
7) New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles – NY Yankees
8) Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros – Houston
9) Detroit Red Wings @ Buffalo Sabres – Detroit
10) Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
11) Michigan State vs. North Carolina – North Carolina

1) Norway is favored in this match with common odds being quoted as 1:2 for Norway and 6:4 for United States. A two dollar bet wins one dollar for Norway while a two dollar bet wins three dollars for U.S.A. This is an article about the Canadian team but the sidebar to the left has a tiny bit of info on the teams. Norway is 3-0 in competition so far and the United States is 2-1. Two of Norway’s victories were against teams predicted to finish in the bottom 4 and one against Finland who ‘has a good chance’ to finish in the top four. United States defeated Germany who is ‘a good bet’ to make the playoffs, and Switzerland who is predicted to finish in the middle of the pack. They lost to Scotland who are ‘an easy pick’ to make the top four. It should be a very close match and either side could win.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

2) Gaziantepspor is 6-3-3 at home, with those losses coming against Besiktas, Istanbul Buyuksehir BSK, and Konyaspor. The match against Istanbul BSK was a game in which they played mostly reserves including a reserve goal keeper. The loss against 12th ranked Konyaspor, however, was with their starters, except for Hakan Bayraktar. Gaziantepspor have defeated or drawn the two teams above Galatasaray in the standings at home. Galatasaray is 5-3-5 on the road this season, with their best win coming against Konyaspor as well. Their other 4 victories on the road have been against some of the worst teams in the league. Galatasaray have a strong squad with 5 members from the Turkish national team, one from the Czech team, one from the Australian team, and Cassio Lincoln who plays for Brazil. When they defeated Konyaspor they had 6 of those players active, including Lincoln. When they defeated Gaziantepspor in a home match they had all 8 active. They have lost to far worse teams than Gaziantepspor with 6 of the players active, including Lincoln. Cassio Lincoln is projected to miss the match, but Harry Kewell and Milan Baros should be active. I would check the lineups before the match and if Kewell, Baros, Cetin, Sarioglu, Balta, Akmen, and Turan are all playing I would seriously consider taking Galatasaray.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

7) In this game C.C. Sabathia is pitching for the Yankees and Guthrie is pitching for the Orioles. In the past 5 years of their career Guthrie has given up nearly 3 times as many runs per at bat to the Yankees, twice as many total bases per at bat and 1.5 times as many hits per at bat.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

9) Detroit is defeated Minnesota last night at home with Chris Osgood in net. Detroit is 6-4-0 in their last 10 games and 4-1-0 on the road recently. Their record on the second night of back-to-backs is 8-5-1 with all of those games coming on the road. Chris Osgood will be playing his second game in two nights as goalie for the Red Wings. Buffalo is 4-4-2 in their last 10 games and 2-2-1 on the road. Ryan Miller will be in net for the Sabres and he is 3-1-1 since his return from injury. Most casinos have Buffalo at -105 and Detroit at -115.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

11) So Michigan State lost to North Carolina by 35 points earlier this year. They were injured, sick, and had no momentum. Michigan State is tops in the nation in rebounding margin with +9.6 per game and North Carolina is 11th with +7.0 per game. North Carolina commits fewer turnovers than Michigan State and forces more, shoots the ball better from three, the free throw line, and from the field in general. The Tar Heels actually limit their opponents to the same field goal percentage as Michigan State do. North Carolina averages more blocks, steals, and assists than Michigan State as well as coming up empty on fewer possessions overall even with their greater pace. Michigan State will enjoy a terrific home court advantage, but I do not see North Carolina becoming flustered with a loose game being called like UCONN appeared to. It will be up to North Carolina to match the Spartans’ intensity and step up their effort in getting to loose balls.
Confidence: W6 streak or less

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