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And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Tuesday, March 31, 2009

March 31st, 2009 Picks

A nice turnaround for myself today as I went 3-0-0. My first pick was Cambridge United to win. This was a matchup of the 2nd place team in the Blue Square Premiere against the 22nd place team. Both offenses were lacking with few shots being taken. Jai Reason finally booted in a shot from the edge of the box in the 82nd minute and Cambridge United held on to defeat Woking 1-0.

My next pick was the Rangers over the Devils. The first period was scoreless, but in the 2nd the Rangers broke loose with three goals. The Devils turned up the pressure and started taking more shots but Henrik Lundqvist made saves on all 38. The Devils grew frustrated in the 3rd and were unable to make a run with at least one player in the box after the 10 minute mark. The Rangers continued their recent dominance over Brodeur and the Devils with a 3-0 victory.

My final pick of the day was Oregon State. They came out with their zone defense and jumped out to a 7-0 lead. They were up by as much as 11 in the first half but UTEP made a small run to make it 35-29 at the half. Oregon State started the second half strong as well and were up by as much as 21 before UTEP made a run again. The Miners got the deficit down to 3 with under 5 minutes to go behind the play of Randy Culpepper, Stefon Jackson, and Arnett Moultrie. Oregon State was 50% from the free throw line, but turned it around at the end to extend their lead. A couple of missed jumpers from Jackson and some more free throws from the Beavers and Oregon State pulled out the victory at home, 75-69. Now it’s on to the picks.

1) Portugal vs. South Africa – 2 goals or fewer
2) Atlanta Hawks @ Philadelphia 76ers – Philadelphia
3) Baylor vs. San Diego State – San Diego State
4) Chicago Blackhaws @ Montreal Canadiens – Montreal

1) Portugal has been in a bit of a slump lately. They were beaten 6-2 by Brazil in an international friendly. Aside from that they have scored 1 goal in 4 matches in international competition. South Africa has done much better against African competition, going 3-0-0 in defeating Equatorial Guinea 1-0, Ghana 2-1, and Cameroon 3-2. They lost to Chile 2-0 but then defeated Norway 2-1. So 80% of Portugal’s games going back to October have gone under and they’ve scored 0.6 goals per match and allowed 1.4 goals per match including the 6 goals Brazil tagged on them, while 80% of South Africa’s games have gone over while scoring 1.2 goals and allowing 1.2 goals.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

3) This game is being played in Madison Square Garden. Baylor shoots the ball better, from three point range, from the free throw line, and in general. They make more three pointers than San Diego State, get more blocks and have a higher adjusted points rating. The Aztecs have a greater rebounding margin, their opponents shoot lower percentages from the field than Baylor’s do, they have a higher assist to turnover ratio, have a greater turnover margin, get more steals, commit fewer fouls, and come up with fewer empty possessions. Both teams play 7 to 8 men, with Baylor starting two seniors, two juniors, and a sophomore with two seniors in the rotation off the bench. San Diego State starts four seniors and a sophomore, with a junior, a sophomore, and a freshman in the rotation off the bench. Lomars, at 7 feet, could give the Aztecs hassles as their tallest player is 6’8". San Diego State will need to play good man-to-man defense to stop Baylor’s three point shooting and will want to force turnovers. Baylor will want to use their athleticism to get easy baskets around the rim and play inside-out to get open jump shots. If Lomars gets into foul trouble it will enable the Aztec forwards to score around the rim much easier, but they should be looking to attack in any case.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

4) Cristobal Huet has a lower goals against average (GAA) and a higher save percentage than Carey Price of Montreal. Montreal is 4-3-3 in their last 10 games and Chicago is 4-4-2. Montreal is 2-1-2 at home recently, while Chicago is 1-3-1 on the road. Both teams lost their previous game. Montreal lost their previous home game and Chicago has lost their last 4 road games. Montreal is a -115 favorite in Vegas.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

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