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And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Sunday, March 1, 2009

March 1st, 2009 Picks

Well, it was an up and down day for me yesterday that ended mostly down. Utah State and Arizona State both went down, the ASU loss was particularly hard to stomach as it was a miracle three that gave Washington State the win. Harvick crashed after looking like he would beat Earnhardt. And Houston collapsed in the final six minutes to lose to Chicago. Ah well, new month, new games, new chances to win some TACOS! And I’d like to thank mnvikings2010 for his NBA insights. Now, on to the picks.

1) Ogilvy wins in first 33 holes vs. Ogilvy wins on 34+ or loses – Ogilvy wins in first 33 holes
2) Stoke City @ Aston Villa – 3 goals or more
3) Final margin in Mayakoba Classic: 1 stroke/playoff vs. 2 strokes plus – 1 stroke or playoff
4) Richard Hamilton vs. Ray Allen – Hamilton pts. + ast.
5) Wes Malott vs. The Field – Wes Mallot wins
6) Stewart Cink vs. Ross Fisher – Cink
7) AS Roma @ Inter Milan – Inter Milan wins
8) Rhode Island @ Duquesne – Duquesne
9) Kobe Bryant vs. Shaq O’Neal + Leandro Barbosa – O’Neal + Barbosa pts.
10) Michigan State @ Illinois – Illinois
11) Jimmie Johnson vs. Jeff Gordon – Gordon
12) Denver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers – Indiana
13) LeBron James pts. vs. Joe Johnson pts. + ast. – James pts.
14) Oregon State @ Oregon – Oregon

2) Aston Villa is returning a lot of offensive (and defensive) firepower to their team after the match with CSKA Moscow. Aston Villa’s total goal average for home matches is 2.38 and Stoke City’s total goal average for away matches is 2.85. 53.8% of Aston Villa’s 13 home matches have gone over and 76.9% of Stoke City’s 13 away matches have gone over.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

4) Rip is back in the starting lineup and the offense goes through him more than through Stuckey. That should give Hamilton the advantage in assists. I also see Hamilton shooting well, even against a tough Boston defense. Hamilton has won this prop two of the three times Detroit has played Boston this season. With Hamilton and Allen guarding one another it should be an exciting matchup as neither one is a particularly great defender.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

7) Internazionale Milano defeated AS Roma 4 – 0 on the road. Both teams are more or less healthy. Inter Milan will not win by 4 goals this time, but 1-0 or 2-1 are possible.
Confidence: W6 streak or less

9) With Steven Nash feeding the ball Barbosa and Shaq can score quite a few points, without him they can apparently score even more. A good game for Kobe would be 35 points and he could still lose against two average games for the Suns’ duo, with 18 apiece. Kobe won only once in their past three matchups, against Shaq alone. He and Barbosa pushed in a game Shaq sat out, and Barbosa and Shaq won in the only game they played together against Kobe.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

10) From looking at box scores in their conference schedules it’s apparent that Illinois will be out-rebounded by Michigan State. Their offensive execution will be crisper than Michigan State’s, and they won’t give the game away by turnovers. The big factor here is whether Michigan State gets a significant advantage from the free throw line. If Illinios can make even 30% of their threes and keep from fouling the Spartans they should pull out a big win.
Confidence: W7 streak or less

13) LeBron James has been performing better on the road this season, mainly because Cleveland doesn’t blow teams out as often on the road and rely on James to carry them. Joe Johnson is capable of outscoring LeBron straight up, but it’s more likely LeBron outscores him even with the assists. The stats are skewed slightly in LeBron’s favor because of his 40 and 50 point scoring outbursts, but LeBron is averaging one more point than Johnson gets points and assists over the season. LeBron has won 24 – 9 and 33 – 25 in their past two matchups this season.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

14) Oregon State hasn’t won at Oregon since at least before the 2001-2002 season. Oregon is probably the worst they’ve been in that time, but Oregon is having a low season as well. Oregon State only won by 3 points at home earlier this season versus Oregon.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

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