September 15th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)It was just another one of those days. Started out with Randers really being as bad as advertised as they went down 3-0 at home. Then I picked up a win with del Potro actually defeating Federer in 5 sets. Missed the 7pm picks and capped it off with a Florida Marlins loss. Their pitching was just too awful to win the game. Rule of thumb 83: Florida teams have shitty bullpens. So on to the picks.

Picks
1) Greece vs. France - Greece
2) Piacenza @ Padova - Piacenza win or draw
3) Manchester United @ Besiktas - 2 goals or fewer
4) Real Madrid (@ FC Zürich) vs. Chelsea (v. FC Porto) - Real Madrid wins by more goals
5) Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees - Toronto
6) How Many Innings Will Cliff Lee Pitch: 6²/₃ Or Fewer vs. 7 Or More - 7 or more
7) Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox - Los Angeles
8) Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs - Chicago
9) How Many Strikeouts Will Dan Haren Record: 6 Or Fewer vs. 7 Or More - 7 or more
10) Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants - Colorado

September 14th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Well, another poor day for me in which I remained over .500 but still picked more losers than winners for my own streak. I went 4-1 in NFL straight up picks, but ended up taking the Houston Texans who could not do anything against a revamped Jets defense. Then the Dodgers got shut down by AL transfer Brady Penny. I never got a chance to pick Green Bay who pulled off a last minute victory so I'm stuck on the losing end of things at the end of the day. On the plus side I should win 2 out of 3 fantasy football league games even though I played a man down with Anthony Gonzalez going out. The one loss was my team that had Gonzalez and Breaston so I played two men down in that one. Well, I think the streak breakers of the day lie in baseball so good luck and on with the picks.

Picks
1) Aalborg BK @ Randers FC - Randers FC win or draw
2) Juan Martin del Potro vs. Roger Federer - 4 or 5 sets played
3) Terrell Owens vs. Randy Moss - Moss records more receiving yards
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles - Tampa Bay
5) Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds - Cincinnati
6) Florida Marlins @ St. Louis Cardinals - Florida
7) Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres - San Diego
8) San Diego Chargers Winning Margin vs. Oakland Raiders 2^nd Half Points - Chargers winning margin

September 13th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Ouch, today hurt. I continued my losing ways with Tim Clark carding a stroke worse than Mahan in the morning golf. From there Manchester United demolished by Tottenham Hotspur pick 3-1 and after that Notre Dame made some poor play calls near the end of the game, failed to eat up enough clock, and gave away the game in the last minute to Michigan. That put me at L6, a personal worst. At least the Dodgers' bats seem to have woken up as they won easily. Thank goodness for that and on to the picks.

Picks
1) AS Roma @ Siena - Siena win or draw
2) Stewart Cink vs. Kenny Perry - Cink cards a lower or equal front 9 score
3) Rafael Nadal vs. Juan Martin del Potro - Nadal
4) Tiger Woods vs. Brandt Snedeker or Marc Leishman - Snedeker or Leishman card a lower 4^th round score
5) Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals - Denver
6) Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons - Atlanta
7) Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers - Philadelphia
8) Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns - Minnesota
9) New York Jets @ Houston Texans - Houston
10) Maurice Jones-Drew and Torry Holt vs. Reggie Wayne and Joseph Addai - Wayne and Addai record more total yards
11) Kansas City points scored vs. Baltimore Ravens winning margin - Baltimore winning margin
12) Roy Williams vs. Antonio Bryant - Bryant records more receiving yards
13) Calvin Johnson vs. Marques Colston - Johnson records more receiving yards
14) Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants - Los Angeles
15) Clinton Portis vs. Brandon Jacobs - Jacobs records more total yards
16) Steven Jackson vs. Julius Jones - Jones records more rushing yards
17) San Francisco 49ers Total Touchdowns vs. Arizona Cardinals Passing Touchdowns - 49ers total touchdowns
18) Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers - Green Bay

September 12th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)1-3-0 today and I did it by picking against my picks when they won and with them when they lost. Kevin Na got me on the winning track after Oswalt's abysmal performance last night. I followed that up with a ridiculous 40 pitch inning from Harden preventing him from going 5 innings. He gave up 1 run and still was at 100+ pitches after four. So with the pitchers fucking me I went against my own pick and took Tiger to birdie the par-5 15^th. Big mistake. Tiger overshot the green on his second approach shot and managed just a par. So finally I went with Cleveland to defeat Greinke. Greinke pitched well and allowed just 4 hits and 1 run in 7 innings but the Indians were in the game because, of course, Greinke received only a single run of support. Well, a couple blown walk off opportunities thrown out at home later the Royals finally got a home run and took the game 2-1. I would like to write more, but it would just sound like bitching, because it would be simple bitching. So on to the picks.

Picks
1) Tim Clark vs. Hunter Mahan - Clark cards a lower or equal front 9 score
2) Duke Blue Devils @ Army Black Knights - Duke
3) North Carolina Tarheels @ Connecticut Huskies - North Carolina
4) Stanford Cardinal @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons - Wake Forest
5) Manchester United @ Tottenham Hotspur - Tottenham Hotspur win or draw
6) Virginia Tech (v. Marshall) vs. Boston College (v. Kent State) - Boston College has a larger winning margin
7) Tiger Woods' 3^rd Round Score: 67 or lower vs. 68 or higher - 67 or lower
8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Michigan Wolverines - Notre Dame
9) Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals - Atlanta
10) Air Force Falcons @ Minnesota Golden Gophers - Air Force
11) LSU Tigers (v. Vanderbilt) vs. Auburn Tigers (v. Mississippi State) - LSU has a larger winning margin
12) Kyle Busch vs. Matt Kenseth - Busch has a better final position
13) USC Trojans @ Ohio State Buckeyes - USC
14) Detroit Shock @ Chicago Sky - Chicago
15) Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants - Los Angeles
16) Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres - San Diego
17) Oregon Ducks (v. Purdue) vs. Utah Utes (@ San Jose State) - Utah has a larger winning margin

September 11th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Aaarrgghghgh, well I got my 14^th W5+ with David Toms this morning but then my special ability kicked in. Instead of picking Chicago Sky, Florida Marlins, the 114 yards or under, or Chris Johnson in the Steelers game (all winners) I settled on Roy Oswalt to give up fewer hits than Derek Lowe. Well, Oswalt may claim he felt healthy enough to pitch but 10 hits and 6 runs in 2 innings do not lie. Even still Lowe teased me by giving up 9 hits in 5²/₃ innings before he got pulled. Oh well, another streak down the drain, but if I keep picking around .600 overall I should be back to W5 post haste. So on to the picks then!

Picks
1) Kevin Na vs. Retief Goosen - Na cards a lower or equal front 9 score
2) Serena Williams vs. Kim Clijsters - 2 sets played
3) Will Rich Harden Be The Winning Pitcher (Reds @ Cubs): Yes vs. No - Yes
4) Leeds United @ Southend United - Leeds United win
5) Tiger Woods' Score On The Par 5 15^th: Birdie (4) vs. Any Other Score - Any other score
6) Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians - Cleveland
7) Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ Toronto Argonauts - Toronto
7) Carl Edwards vs. Brad Keselowski - Edwards has a better final position
9) Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis
10) Colorado Buffaloes @ Toledo Rockets - Colorado
11) Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Arizona
12) Calgary Stampeders @ Edmonton Eskimos - Edmonton
13) Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants - San Francisco

September 10th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Today was full of down to the last second props with Belgium scoring in injury time, the last shot of the game putting Poland/Turkey over, the Yankees going up 4-2 with 4 runs in the eighth though by now we're used to the Rays bullpen blowing leads. They're at 4 or 5 leads blown in a row now. I continued my streak with that Euro basketball over/under then picked up another win with an easy Nationals hitting Cliff Lee prop. Today looks like some decent picks but I'm still hoping we get some soccer on the board. So on with the picks!

Picks
1) David Toms vs. Ernie Els - Toms cards a lower or equal front 9 score
2) Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays - Toronto
3) Phil Mickelson's Score On The Par 5 15^th: Birdie (4) vs. Any Other Score - Birdie (4)
4) Florida Marlins @ New York Mets - Florida
5) Fernando Gonzalez vs. Rafael Nadal - 4 or 5 sets played
6) Jonathan Dwyer's Rushing Yards (Clemson @ Georgia Tech): 114 Or Fewer vs. 115 Or More - 114 or less
7) Indiana Fever @ Chicago Sky - Chicago
8) Derek Lowe vs. Roy Oswalt - Oswalt allows fewer hits
9) Chris Johnson vs. Willie Parker - Johnson records more total yards
10) San Antonio Silver Stars @ Sacramento Monarchs - Sacramento
11) Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels - 8 runs or fewer

September 9, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Lost my meager three game streak yesterday on that European Basketball Championship over/under but did manage to get back a couple wins with Marin Cilic defeating Andy Murray and the Yankees walking off with Nick Swisher's second home run of the game. I can already tell those two soccer matches are trying to trick me into losing my streak while attempting to get two picks in for the price of one. By lucky charms I'll have some sort of winning streak come 7pm. And so on to the picks.

Picks
1) Belgium @ Armenia - 2 goals or fewer
2) Poland vs. Turkey - 156 points or more
3) Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh
4) St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers - 26 hits+runs+errors or fewer
5) Netherlands @ Scotland - Netherlands win
6) Novak Djokovic vs. Fernando Verdasco - 40 games or more played
7) Melanie Oudin vs. Caroline Wozniacki - Wozniacki wins 2-0
8) Cliff Lee's strikeouts vs. Washington Nationals' Hits Off Lee - Nationals hits off Lee
9) Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees - Rays win or lose by 1
10) United States @ Trinidad & Tobago - Trinidad & Tobago win, tie, or lose by 1
11) Detroit Shock @ Minnesota Lynx - Minnesota
12) Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros - Houston
13) Roger Federer vs. Robin Soderling - Federer loses 13 games or fewer
14) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Arizona
15) Who Will Score More Runs In Innings 4 Through 6 (Dodgers @ Diamondbacks) - Arizona

Previews
1) I like 2 goals or fewer since Belgium defeated Armenia 2-0 in Belgium and now they're on the road so I would expect them to either win 1-0, 2-0, or draw 1-1, or lose 1-0. The only 3 goal or plus scoreline I see having a chance of occurring here is a 2-1 Belgium win. The odds at Skybet have under at -137.5 (8/11) and the over at even odds (+100).

3) The Cubs are 30-40 on the road while Pittsburgh is 36-33 at home. Carlos Zambrano is a pretty solid pitcher, but his ERA is only 4.60 in day games this season compared to 3.17 in night games. Kevin Hart has given up 3 or more earned runs in all 6 of his starts since being acquired by Pittsburgh from the Cubs. He has also made it out of the 6^th inning three times. Chicago actually looks like a decent pick here, I just don't like their losing record on the road.

Click image for larger view.

8) Looking at the graph on the right one sees Cliff Lee has been causing NL teams to strike out more often relative to their season average than AL teams. The red line represents strikeouts in relation to season average while the black line represents hits per strikeout in that particular game. Whenever the black line is over the red line it represents a loss in the context of this prop. Wins are when the red line is over the black line. One can then see that overall Lee is 8-17 with one push so far this season and has lost three in a row after dominating the NL for four games after being traded to Philadelphia. The Nationals are at the top of the bottom third of MLB in terms of plate appearances per strikeout though at 5.27; they also average 4.33 plate appearances per hit, which is poor overall. The Angels lead the MLB in plate apperances per hit with one every 3.91 while the worst team is San Diego with one every 4.69 plate appearances, so Washington's 4.33 is closer to the bottom. Cliff Lee could dominate Washington and win the prop 4 to 3, but I think Washington will get at least 6 hits and strike out no more than 6 times.