Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

click it

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

June 16th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)2-1-0 today thanks to the goddamn Indians relievers. They could not hold on to a 4 run lead with only 5 outs to go. Wedge finally put in Joe Smith who disposed the last 5 Brewers quickly and efficiently the damage had already been done. Thoroughly. At least U.S. born Giuseppi Rossi got me a win with Italy and then the Giants' clean up crew with three hits in the 6th. So on to some unadulterated picks.



Recaps

New Jersey Born Rossi Nets Two For The Azzuri
Italy 3 - 1 United States
Another battle, more red cards, a penalty kick, a called off own goal. Simply put this is U.S.A. versus Italy.
``Teaneck-born Giuseppe Rossi scored twice in the second half, Daniele De Rossi had a goal and Italy rallied to overcome a Landon Donovan penalty kick and beat the United States 3-1 Monday night in its opener at the FIFA Confederations Cup. The U.S. played a man short after Ricardo Clark was ejected in the 33rd minute for a late tackle on Gennaro Gattuso, but went ahead eight minutes later when Donovan scored his American-record 40th international goal after Giorgio Chiellini hooked and kicked Jozy Altidore."
Read more....Box ScoreIn DepthAPBBCCBCUSA Today

Fielder's Grand Slam Completes Brewers Comeback; Indians Relievers Embarrass Themselves, The City Of Cleveland
Milwaukee Brewers 14 - 12 Cleveland Indians
Wow, Cleveland had a 5 run lead at two points in this one. Joe Smith, the fifth reliever used by the Indians retired 5 straight to end the game, but it was too late.
``Prince Fielder hit a go-ahead grand slam in Milwaukee's six-run eighth inning and the Brewers rallied to beat the Cleveland Indians 14-12 on Monday night. Milwaukee's comeback overshadowed another difficult outing for Dave Bush, who was charged with eight runs in 31/3 innings, his shortest outing of the season. Cleveland starter Carl Pavano struggled again, allowing six runs in five innings. In two starts since his shutout against the Chicago White Sox on June 5, he has allowed 15 runs and 20 hits in 92/3 innings."
Read more....Box Score

Sandoval's Two Home Runs Not Enough To Overcome 7 Run 4th By Angels
Los Angeles Angels 9 - 7 San Francisco Giants
A seven run 4th inning was just about enough for the Angels to secure this win.
``Aybar hit a two-run homer before Abreu connected in the Angels' seven-run fourth. Robb Quinlan singled in two runs, Mike Napoli added an RBI double and Lackey even singled in a run for his first major league hit and RBI. Juan Rivera and Sean Rodriguez also went deep for Los Angeles. Pablo Sandoval hit a three-run homer with two outs in the ninth to go with an earlier solo shot, his first career multihomer game. Brian Fuentes then entered and got pinch-hitter Rich Aurilia on a flyout for his 17th save in 20 chances. The teams combined for seven homers and 31 hits."
Read more....Box Score



Picks
1) Amelie Mauresmo vs. Vera Zvonareva - Zvonareva
2) South Africa vs. India - South Africa
3) Belarus(U21) @ Sweden(U21) - 2 goals or fewer
4) North Carolina vs. Southern Miss - 12 runs or more
5) Serbia(U21) @ Italy(U21) - Serbia win or draw
6) Texas vs. Arizona State - Texas
7) New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles - Baltimore
8) Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds - Cincinnati
9) Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers - Houston
10) Justin Verlander vs. Adam Wainwright - Verlander pitches more 1/3 innings
11) Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies - Tampa Bay
12) How Many Hits+Runs+RBIs Will Ichiro Suzuki Record: 2 or fewer vs. 3 or more - 2 or fewer
13) Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Los Angeles

Previews
1) Muscovite and world #7 ranked Vera Zvonareva is set to return to the WTA Tour after sitting out the past two months with an ankle injury suffered at Charleston. She had been set to return at Roland Garros but thought better of aggravating the ankle. It's not the first time she's had problems with her ankles. She was set for a final round match at the Hobart International last January in a run up to the Australian Open before rolling her ankle in practice and being forced to withdraw. Perhaps it was her first round exit at the Australian that taught her a lesson in patience. She took a month off after the early Oceanic exit before returning to reach the finals at Doha where she was defeated by a healthy Maria Sharapova.


Vera Zvonareva quietly celebrates another victory in 2009.

Her opponent in this match, #17 Amelie Mauresmo, has not had the same kind of success on the Tour this year, despite playing in more events having avoided any injuries so far this year. Neither player has had much experience on the grass surfaces in England recently with Zvonareva going 1-2 on grass in 2008 and Mauresmo going 2-1, at Wimbledon, in her only grass matches of the year. Mauresmo has enjoyed more success on the grass surface, especially when she was in her prime 3 to 5 years ago. She's also dominated Zvonareva in those years with a 7-1 all-time record. None of those matches have come on grass, however, and the most recent victory for Mauresmo was in 2005, when Zvonareva was 20 years old.

Mauresmo is the money line favorite to win this match with Zvonareva returning from that ankle injury. I think she is probably the better grass court player, but at this stage in their careers Zvonareva is easily the more talented of the two. I'm going to guess that Zvonareva has been practicing during this off time and will be well prepared entering into this tournament.

2) South Africa have used a terrific run in test and Twenty20 cricket to become the #1 team in the world. Their recent defeat of West Indies have put them into the ICC Twenty20 semifinals and left them undefeated in the tournament. India, on the other hand, are facing questions of whether the recent Indian Premier League season put too much strain on their team as they have dropped two straight matches. Their failure to chase 153 at the death against England on Sunday was a `bitterly disappointing' result for the defending champions that eliminated them from the competition. Cricinfo has put together a very nice and succinct preview of the match here.


South Africa is unbeaten in this tournament and looks to avoid another international choke by winning at all times.

India is eliminated and should be eager to prove their skill before leaving England.

This dead rubber match will thus pit the former top cricketing nation against the newest to hold that title. All the buzz in India has focused on explaining away their failure. Fatigue, both mental and physical, the absence of Virender Sehwag and the effect of his supposed rift with captain Dhoni, and an Achilles heel here and there being cited as reasons for their early exit and to avoid sounding the alarm just yet. Current coach Gary Kirsten focused on the strain the IPL schedule and busy international schedule placed on the players while former national coach Lalchand Rajput put Virender Sehwag's absence and the effect on team chemistry as the main factors. Click here to listen to Kirsten's reasoning as well as some analysis regarding India's weakness against bouncers and short-pitch bowling.

South Africa will be well aware of those weaknesses and will have the bowling attack to take advantage of them, especially with Morne Morkel being added to the squad in order to rest Jacques Kallis.

``It gives us an aggressive bowing option. A few other guys slide up the order and get more batting chances. This is our last week of what has been a great season so we want to make it count."
South Africa's Graeme Smith on Morkel's inclusion
The South Africans will want to put forth their best effort in order to maintain their winning form in this tournament and avoid yet another let down in international cricket. Past disappointments after a strong run have led to South Africa being labeled as `chokers' by some and have taught their fans to not expect anything from their team. South Africa have even gone so far as to hire a psychologist to keep them focused on winning and not on the pressure of high expectations.

With Parnell in top form - he bowled Chris Gayle out on three balls in their match against West Indies - and the knowledge of India's weakness against the bouncer South Africa should be well prepared to limit India's run rate to a manageable number should they bat second. India was unable to chase 153 against England and it is hard to see them coming out victorious here if they should chase, with South Africa likely to set a higher target. Although India should be eager to prove they did belong in the semifinals with a strong final match the overall tone from their camp is one of defeat and a desire to regroup and retool as quickly as possible.

(left) Yusuf Pathan fails to chase at the death against England; (center) West Indies' Chris Gayle is retired by South Africa's Parnell after only 5 on 3; (right) J.P. Duminy scores a four for South Africa.



Serbia are the runners up from the 2007 edition of the UEFA U21 Championship. Italy last made the finals 5 years ago.
5) Italy face Serbia in the UEFA Under-21 Championships after both teams made successful qualifying bids (Results displayed in table). Marco Motta and the Azzurini will be looking for revenge against a Serbian side that disposed of them 1-0 in the 2007 campaign, a tournament in which Serbia reached the finals before losing to the Netherlands 4-1. Italian coach Pierluigi Casiraghi will have to decide whether to play a standard 4-4-2 formation or go with a 4-3-3 formation to take advantage of his talented trio of strikers, Mario Balotelli, Robert Acquafresca and Sebastian Giovinco. UEFA highlights some of the stars to watch out for from each squad in this article with Bojan Krkić and Mario Balotelli getting the nod for Serbia and Italy, respectively. Serbia sees this match against Italy as the most important towards their goal of reaching the semi-finals, but that they have set the sights below the Championship implies even they do not see themselves as the best of the best. Italy may be too powerful up front for the Serbians to claim victory, but I think they have enough firepower in their own arsenal to secure a draw.
Results From UEFA U21 Championship
SerbiaItaly
Denmark (1:0)Israel (1:3)
Denmark (0:1)Israel (0:0)
Hungary (8:0)Croatia (1:1)
San Marino (0:5)Greece (1:1)
Belarus (1:1)Azerbaijan (0:2)
Scores reported in (home:away) format


Relevant Statistics
VerlanderWainwright
PIP17.116.7
BAA.222.250
BB/92.63.6
K/911.17.5
DetroitSt. Louis
K/AB0.150.18
BB/AB0.100.10
PIP - pitcher/inning pitched; BAA - bat against avg.;
10) Well, I have to favor Justin Verlander in this prop as he is facing a team who walks less often and has a lower bat against average. He also has a higher K/9 so that when the other team does not put the ball in play he is more likely than Adam Wainwright to get an out from it rather than put a man on base and face another batter. Verlander does use slightly more pitches per inning on average than Wainwright, but both pitchers are on a 100 to 120 pitch count and will pitch up to 120 if they are having a good game. I favor Verlander to have a better game as he is facing a weaker offense and has a lower bat against average than Wainwright. Looking at the chart below one sees that in the past couple of weeks Verlander has pitched more innings but that for certain stretches earlier in the season Wainright was pitching more games. I am hoping Verlander can stay ahead on innings pitched for one more start before we see another reversal in that graph.
Justin Verlander and Adam Wainwright's innings pitched in 2009, game-by-game. Verlander has more innings pitched in 6 starts, Wainwright more in 5 starts.

Monday, June 15, 2009

June 15th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)2-0-0 today with the 2 goals or fewer in the Sud Afrika match and the Yankees steamrolling over the Mets. It was a good day overall for my picks and with another couple like that I can start to push the red days off that two-week graph over there. I was kind of hoping Orlando would win the Championship, but I can get behind rooting for Kobe and Gasol. No reason they shouldn't win it again next year too really. And if my Utah Jazz draft another OSU big man (B.J. Mullens), well let's just say we have an overabundance of 7 footers we don't utilize already, why add another? Well, on to the picks then.



Recaps

Hosts South Africa Graciously Keep Iraq From Stepping In It
South Africa 0 - 0 Iraq
Iraq had only a few real scoring opportunities and denied Bafana Bafana at every other turn.
``Hosts South Africa and Iraq shared the spoils in the opening game of the Fifa Confederations Cup in Johannesburg. The hosts missed a hatful of chances with Kagisho Dikgacoi unlucky to see a goalbound header accidently blocked on the line by team-mate Bernard Parker. Earlier South Africa's Macbeth Sibayo saw his 20-yard shot tipped round the post by Iraqi keeper Mohammed Kassid. Striker Parker saw two efforts saved by Kassid while Thembinkosi Fanteni headed Teko Modise's corner over the bar. Substitute Katlego Mashego should have done better for South Africa when finding himself one-on-one with Kassid. But as was the case for much of the game the Iraq keeper proved to be unbeatable, doing well to smother the ball at the feet of Mashego."
Read more....Box ScoreIn DepthAround The World

Yankees Chase Off Santana, Stokes, Anyone In A Mets Uniform
New York Yankees 15 - 0 New York Mets
``Today was a terrible day and that's about it. I didn't locate my fastball today the way it's supposed to be located."
--Johan Santana on today's performance
I think Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Hideki Matsui all kept their slugging averages against Johan Santana above .500 in this one.
``Johan Santana was way off track in the Subway Series. Derek Jeter and the New York Yankees hammered Santana in the worst start of his career, routing the Mets 15-0 on Sunday for the biggest interleague blowout between the Big Apple rival. They [the Yankees] needed only four innings to set a season high for runs in a game, building a 13-0 cushion for A.J. Burnett (5-3). The Yankees finished with 17 hits, three by No. 9 batter Francisco Cervelli, and pulled several stars before the seventh."
Read more....Box ScoreYankees' ViewMets' View



Picks
1) Marc Gicquel vs. Steven Darcis - Gicquel
2) Brazil vs. Egypt - No, Kaka or Robinho will not score
3) Fabrice Santoro vs. Robert Kendrick - Kendrick
4) Cal State Fullerton vs. Virginia - Cal State Fullerton
5) Italy vs. United States - Italy win
6) LSU vs. Arkansas - 11 runs or more
7) Milwaukee Brewers @ Cleveland Indians - Cleveland
8) Prince Fielder vs. Victor Martinez - Martinez records more total bases
9) Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants - Los Angeles
10) Which Team Will Record More Hits In The 6th Inning: Angels vs. Giants - Giants

Previews
1) World #40 Marc Gicquel faces off against #72 Steve Darcis in the first round of the Ordina Open today. Both players are coming off grass court tournaments over the weekend, with Gicquel losing in the first round at Halle to #32 Rainer Schuettler and Darcis losing in the quarterfinals at Queen's Bridge to #90 Juan Carlos Ferrero. Darcis advanced into the quarterfinals past Gael Monfils who withdrew from the tournament. Both Queen's Bridge and Halle were ATP 250 Series events with Darcis advancing further past lower ranked players and Gicquel bowing out to #32 Schuettler. Gicquel defeated Schuettler in straight sets at Roland Garros, however, meaning he's either seen a drop in play in the past week or that Schuettler is simply a weak clay court player.


Marc Gicquel seeks his first match victory on grass this year at Ordina. Gicquel was runner up at this event last year.

Darcis is the more successful ATP Tour player of the two as he has two ATP Tour wins at the young age of 25 while Gicquel has yet to win any ATP event at 32. Still, Gicquel is a regular on the ATP Tour while Darcis still plays a number of Challengers events. I think Gicquel's overall experience will serve him well in this match as will his experience of reaching the finals at Ordina last year before losing to current #4 David Ferrer in straight sets.

Over Darcis' short career he is 2-0 against Gicquel, with clay court wins coming in the Netherlands in 2007 and 2008. Darcis has won 4 out of 5 sets played against Gicquel, though he has won only 29 of 53 games played. So far this year statistically they are nearly identical in terms of 1st serve percentage, service points won, and so on. Oddsmakers have the odds on the two dead even at -120 each.


Brazil are peaking at the right time and are ready to defend their Confederation Cup crown.

Egypt hope to regain some of the form that saw them become African champions in 2007.
2) Brazil are all set to defend their Confederation Cup title from 2005 with Egypt simply looking to avoid the `whipping boy' status imparted on New Zealand by Spain yesterday. Egypt won the 2007 African Cup to qualify for this tournament but are currently sitting in last place in their World Cup qualifying group, though they are only through 1/3 of their matches. There are previews from a number of sources all over the internet, click here for a sampling of the best.

"We're expecting a very hard match, a lot harder than a lot of people are expecting back in Brazil. Most of the Egyptian players aren't that well known around the world, but one thing's for sure; you don't win two consecutive continental championships just by chance. You need a lot of quality to do that." ---Brazil coach Dunga
"Egypt cannot afford to fear Brazil in our opener because if we enter the first match with such a feeling, we will show the same fear against the other teams." ---Egypt coach Hassan Shehata

Sportsbook SkyBet has Brazil as heavy favorites with over 2.5 goals scored favored at -150 and under 2.5 goals at +110. They also have markets on who will score in the game. Fabiano is most favored at -110 with Robinho next at +100 and followed by Kaka and Pato at +135 each. Looking at the tables below Brazil has been in excellent form, scoring 12 goals in their past 5 matches. Kaka has scored one of those goals, a penalty kick against Uruguay and Robinho has two goals, one in the friendly against Italy and another in their most recent match against Paraguay. It should be noted that Fabiano was suspended for the match against Paraguay and played limited minutes against Italy, however. As for Egypt, the Pharaoahs have been in relatively poor form, conceding 6 goals in their last 5 international matches, all against moderately weak African sides. I think the Seleção will play at just under 100% and Egypt may surprise them with their defense. Brazil should score at least 2 goals, but I would be surprised if they put on 5 goals like Spain did against the All Whites. Considering Kaka has not scored in 5 matches except on penalty kicks I think he is less likely to be the receiver in an attack. Fabiano is the main focus of the offensew with Robinho the secondary threat. Kaka will play on the wings and take fewer shots than either of the two. I think Egypt will be the more motivated club, with something to prove, and favor Kaka and Robinho to be out of the scoring in this match.

Recent Form/Results
BrazilEgypt
6/11#13 Paraguay (2:1)6/7#66 Algeria (1:3)
6/6#17 Uruguay (0:4)5/30#80 Oman (0:1)
4/2#88 Peru (3:0)3/29#92 Zambia (1:1)
3/29#39 Ecuador (1:1)2/11#35 Ghana (2:2)
2/10#4 Italy (2:0)1/23#84 Kenya (1:0)
All matches took place in 2009; Scores given in (home:away) format.



The U.S. will field a strong squad against Italy but still have to prove they can win away from North America.

Italy will be without experienced center back Cavanno but are still one of the elite teams to beat.
5) Both Italy and the United States come into this Confederation Cup tournament in good position for World Cup qualification. The Yanks currently sit in 2nd place, two points behind Costa Rica. They must finish strong to remain in 3rd place or better and a strong showing away from the friendly fields of the U.S.A. would be a good start to that. Italy lie in the first position of their World Cup qualifying group but as the defending World Cup champions their place is already confirmed. Still, they have struggled some of late and would like to show they remain one of the best in the world. Of course, according to their coach that only applies to a certain point:

``This first game with the United States is obviously the most important for us. They are a quality opponent, eager, and a strong team that are difficult to break down. We need to keep totally focused on this first game because it will set the rhythm for us. It could make or break us." ---Italy coach Marcello Lippi

There are a number of previews from sources such as the BBC and goal.com with most predicting a win for Italy, but not without a major fight from the Americans. Click here to peruse them at your leisure.

From what I can gather it sounds as if the United States will be taking the opportunity to try out some new formations and tactics while Italy will simply be looking to find that dominating groove. From the table below it appears as if Italy is a bit out of sorts and the United States should have a very good chance at securing a draw here. It is only their poor road form which has me favoring Italy strongly to come out the victors in this match.

Recent Form/Results
#4 Italy#14 U.S.A.
6/10#82 New Zealand (4:3)6/7#35 Honduras (2:1)
6/6#27 N. Ireland (3:0)6/4#41 Costa Rica (3:1)
4/1#34 Ireland (1:1)4/2#75 Trinidad & Tobago (3:0)
3/28#112 Montenegro (0:2)3/29#106 El Salvador (2:2)
2/10#5 Brazil (0:2)2/12#24 Mexico (2:0)
All matches took place in 2009. Scores given in (home:away) format


7) The Milwaukee Brewers continue Interleague play after dropping two of three games at home to the Chicago White Sox. The Brewers batted .238 with a .376 slugging average in those three games and were outscored 14 to 12. Their opponents tonight, the Cleveland Indians, continue their Interleague homestand after winning 2 of 3 against the St. Louis Cardinals, outscoring the Red Birds 11 to 6 thanks to some fantastic pitching. The Indians also had some fairly mundane batting numbers with a .242 batting average and .385 slugging average. The Brewers scored about half a run below their average this season, but the Indians were worse, over 1 run below their season runs per game average. The Indians' batting numbers were also further off their season marks. Overall, Cleveland is scoring more of their base runners and doing it on fewer total bases than the Brewers meaning they have better base running, better batting with runners in scoring position (RISP), or both.

The Indians will try and continue their Interleague success with a celebration of `Major League'.

The Cleveland Indians may need every bit of offensive apptitude working for them with right hander Carl Pavano starting on the mound. Pavano has recorded a 5.40 ERA and 1.34 WHIP through 13 starts this season. Pavano is coming off a one of the worse starts by any starting pitchers in the league this season, giving up 9 earned runs from 11 hits in only 42/3 innings to the Kansas City Royals. The only bright spot being that Pavano still only walked one batter. Pavano rarely walks a batter, as in his next prior start where he walked two batters while shutting out the White Sox for 9 innings, and has a 3.6 K/BB ratio. His counterpart this evening will be Dave Bush. The Milwaukee Brewers pitcher has a 4.58 ERA and 1.26 WHIP through 13 starts this year and is coming off a decent start against the Rockies. In that game he gave up only 3 earned runs in 5 innings but it proved to be one run too many as the Brewers lost 4-2. It was his first game pitching since being struck in the elbow against Florida on June 4th.

Dave Bush has given up a home run every 5 innings he's pitched on average this season and his ground ball to fly ball ratio reflects that. Cleveland will probably be without the services of Grady Sizemore in this game, but still have a lot of skill in the lineup with players like Martinez, Choo, and Peralta. With Bush pitching it seems these players could expect to scratch out at least a 3 runs with only 4 or 5 hits. I think the Brewers will need a more solid performance from their lineup to match the Indians offensively. With quality starts at Fenway (Boston), Yankee Stadium (New York), and against the Tampa Bay Rays this season Pavano has the greater potential for shutting his opponent down. Milwaukee has a much better bullpen, especially in terms of home runs conceded, however, so they should not be counted out of the game if only trailing by those three runs.

8) Although Victor Martinez is 0-for-6 against Dave Bush in his career he simply gets hits in more games than Prince Fielder. Fielder has never faced Carl Pavano and looking at these graphs I would not be surprised if he goes 0-fer today. In fact, a zero to zero push would not surprise me at all in this one.


Total bases, game-by-game.
Martinez's numbers have gone down significantly in the last month. Fielder's numbers have been off and on all season.


Proportion of games with 'N' total bases for each player.
Fielder (1-3 TB: 39%); Martinez (1-3 TB: - 59.4%)

Sunday, June 14, 2009

June 14th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)0-2-0 today, thanks to Cal State-Failing Titanically and the prowess of Antonio Bastardo linking up with the Red Sox. Well, that's just fine because I'm eating Coco Puffs and celebrating the official recognition by IUPAC of `Element 112'. Of course, until they can figure out how to create trillions of these bad boys at a time (at the very least) it'll continue to be a news story with some interesting applications to particle physics and little utility to the rest of us.



Recaps

With Two Outs Razorbacks Cut Titans Down To Size
Arkansas Razorbacks 10 - 6 Cal State-Fullerton Titans
The Titans' offense could only scratch out a few runs here and there against Arkansas' Dallas Keuchel.
``Home runs by Zack Cox and Andy Wilkins keyed an early offensive outburst by Arkansas, and Razorback starter Dallas Keuchel threw six solid innings to lead the Hogs to a 10-6 victory over Cal State Fullerton in the opening game of the 2009 College World Series. ... Tschepikow led off the third with a single and came home when Cox blasted a two-out home run deep into the right field bleachers for a 4-0 lead. ... The Razorbacks chased Ramirez with more two-out magic in the fourth. Fullerton coach Dave Serrano lifted Ramirez, and brought in Tyler Pill, who was greeted with a two-run single by Lyons to make it 6-2. Wilkins followed with a back-breaking three-run blast to right to make it 9-2."
Read more....Box ScoreQuotes And Notes

Rain Delays Inevitable As Sox Put Philly In The Red
Boston Red Sox 11 - 6 Philadelphia Phillies
Remember ``Wings"? Antonio's life was comically tragic in that show. Here, Antonio's life is not so comic. After throwing fewer than half his pitches for strikes and giving up 5 runs it's just tragic. And his last name isn't Scarpacci.
``Jason Bay and Jacoby Ellsbury homered, Julio Lugo had four hits, and the Boston Red Sox overcame another shaky outing by Matsuzaka to beat the Philadelphia Phillies 11-6 on Saturday night. Phillies starter Antonio Bastardo (2-1) issued three walks and Philadelphia made three errors in the first. Bay hit a long drive out to left-center for his 17th homer. With two runners on, Lugo lined a two-out single to center that skipped past Victorino. Both runners scored to put the Red Sox up 5-0."
Read more....Box Score



Picks
1) Iraq vs. South Africa - 2 goals or fewer
2) Who Will Win The St. Jude's Classic: Brian Gay vs. Any Other Player - Gay
3) New York Mets @ New York Yankees - N.Y. Yankees
4) Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Detroit
5) Arizona State vs. North Carolina - Arizona State
6) Jimmie Johnson vs. Tony Stewart - Johnson has a better finishing position
7) Chicago White Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers - Chicago
8) Spain vs. New Zealand - 4 goals or more
9) Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies - Colorado
10) Houston Astros @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Arizona
11) Southern Miss vs. Texas - 10 runs or fewer
12) Los Angeles Lakers @ Orlando Magic - Los Angeles
13) St. Louis Cardinals @ Cleveland Indians - Cleveland
14) The Result Of Albert Pujols' 3rd Plate Appearance: Hit/Walk vs. Other - Other
15) Final Basket Of Game 6 Of The NBA Finals: 2PFG vs. 3PFG/FT - 3PFG/FT

Previews

South Africa hosts the Confederation Cup ahead of the World Cup in 2010.
Iraq won the Asian Cup in 2007 but still has much to prove to the world.
1) When Iraq takes the pitch at converted Ellis Park to face hosts South Africa it will be as defending Asian Cup champions, which they won in 2007. Unfortunately, they have not been able to further that success as they have been eliminated from World Cup qualification after going 2-1-3 (W-D-L) in their round three group. Only one of their 6 matches had 3 or more goals scored, a 2-1 away win over China. South Africa have qualified for the World Cup automatically as the host country, but would have been eliminated from contention in round 2 of the Confederation of Africa qualifying as they went 2-1-3 in their group with Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Equatorial Guinea. Only one of their six matches had 3 or more goals scored, a 4-1 home win over Equatorial Guinea. Looking at the table below shows the results of each sides last 5 matches, international friendlies but one Gulf Cup match for Iraq, a competition they failed to advance past the Group Stage in as well.
Recent Form
South AfricaIraq
Poland (1:0)Poland (1:1)
Portugal (0:2)Qatar (0:1)
Norway (2:1)South Korea (1:2)
Chile (0:2)Saudi Arabia (0:0)
Cameroon (3:2)Kuwait (1:1)
Most matches took place at neutral sites
FIFA has a decent preview of the match, with thinks to other tidibits of information. They don't offer much in the way of predicting the outcome, however. I thought the quotations selected for each coach were interesting.
``We have three games and if we win against Iraq, we will have a lot of confidence. That is what we are aiming at," ---South Africa coach Joel Santana

``We have tried our best to prepare the team for the FIFA Confederations Cup despite the short period that we had. Our team have good players who are skilful, and I'm really optimistic that we can deliver good performances in the tournament," ---Iraq coach Bora Milutinovic

Odds for this match have South Africa as a heavy favorite to win with a low scoring match being the money favorite. SkyBet has under 2.5 goals at 8/11 (-135) with over 2.5 goals at even (+100) odds. I don't see either of these sides fielding particularly potent offenses and would not be surprised to see a 1-0 South Africa win or 1-1 draw.

2009 PGA Tour Results
PlayerTo Par
Brian Gay-14
Bryce Molder-13
Robert Allenby-11
Paul Goydos-10
Heath Slocum-9
Vaughn Taylor-9
Woody Austin-9
Click players' names to see their results in 2009
2) Brian Gay is now 18 holes of solid golf away from his second tour win in as many months and his first since winning by 10 strokes at the Verizon Heritage. With a victory he would earn a spot at the U.S. Open at Bethpage Black next weekend. A quick look at the leaderboard shows Gay with a one stroke lead after having led each of the previous three rounds. His closest competitor is Bryce Molder, followed by Robert Allenby, Paul Goydos, and three others five strokes back. Of those top seven Gay is the only one to have won an event on the Tour this season, with Goydos, Slocum, and Allenby the only players with one top five finish this year.

Brian Gay has been the most successful golfer of the group including himself and those chasing him and a big part of that success has been his ability to get himself out of tough spots. He had to scramble to save par on a number of holes to maintain his lead in the 3rd round, as he talks about in this interview yesterday. Bryce Molder is the player with the best shot in that he has the least ground to make up. He was an all-star golfer in college and overcame a number of congenital defects, such as being born with no left pectoral muscle, to get where he is today. Of the group within 5 strokes of the lead Brian Gay is also the best performer in the fourth round. He is the only one in the group whose final round score is better than his score the first three rounds on average in 2009.

▐▀▌▐▀▌▐▀▌Click On The Image Below To Track The Top Three Groups ▌▀▐▌▀▐▌▀▐


4) The Detroit Tigers wrap up a three game Interleague series with the Pittsburgh Pirates today at PNC Park. The main sideline for the Tigers in this game is the play of Dontrelle Willis and how he'll do in his first at bat in over a year. For his career Willis is batting .234, with a .359 slugging average which would make him a very strong presence at the bottom of the order.

Dontrelle Willis throws out Podsednik from the ground in a game this season.
``I hope he pitches well because I want to see him hit." said Tigers manager Jim Leyland about Willis' upcoming National League start. And there lies the problem. Nobody wants to see Willis take just one at bat, he will probably need two or three to get that RBI extra base hit. To do that he will need to pitch a solid game and that has been a problem for him. Nearly two weeks ago he lasted only 21/3 innings against the Red Sox. He started out strong, but proceeded to walk in two runs on his way to giving up 5 earned runs off of zero hits. That's right, Willis allowed the Red Sox zero hits but still walked in a couple of runs, left the bases loaded when he came out, and had all three of those runners score. He's been difficult to hit off of when he gets his pitches in the strike zone, but his location has been awful all season for the most part. The one notable exception was a little gem he threw against the Texas Rangers back in May, shutting them out for 61/3 innings and allowing only one hit while walking only 2 batters. It's hard to say why Dontrelle has such a hard time staying under control, but when he does he is a terrific pitcher.

Starting opposite Willis will be Ross Ohlendorf. Ohlendorf has been up and down this season, though not to the extremes Willis has, on his way to recording a 4.82 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. His last couple of starts have been difficult for him, a 6 inning effort against the Braves with a game ERA of 4.50 and a 41/3 inning outing against the Mets with a game ERA of 10.38. He'll be facing a Tigers team who have struggled to score lately, with only 7 runs in their last three games. They are batting around their season average of .259 in that time, and have a .450 slugging average in those games so they are getting the hits, but have been unable to string them together, have had poor luck hitting into double plays, and have exercised some questionable base running in those games.


Either Dontrelle Willis will have to keep from losing it mid-way through or the Tigers will have to see a major resurgence in their offense.
Ohlendorf has yielded 11 home runs in 71 innings this season so there is a decent chance the Tigers will put some runs on the board with a homer, but if they cannot put men on base in front of that it will do them little good.

Pittsburgh is in the same boat, only their lack of scoring this season has stemmed from a lack of power in the batting order. They have had some breakout games in that department, including their game yesterday which saw two of their league trailing 36 home runs this season, but overall it is not something they can depend on. The Pirates are 11-24 this season when they do not hit a home run and Willis is not big on giving up homers with fewer than one every 8 innings pitched this season. What the Pirates can do is scratch out runs. They will need to continue batting near .300 as they have for their past three games. If they do that and Willis continues his trend of losing control in the middle of games and walking men on base it could get ugly very quickly for Detroit. Overall the Pirates have the stronger bullpen, especially when it comes to giving up home runs. Detroit should still be able to score off the Pirates' bullpen, but a major run would not be expected. Overall, I don't see Pittsburgh repeating their power hitting performance from yesterday, and would set 10 hits as a high mark for them in this game. Their biggest chance for victory lies in a Willis meltdown or a big hit off the Tigers' bullpen. Those things are certainly not unlikely to happen so I would not feel too nervous about picking the Pirates today. If Willis does not meltdown however, I would not give Pittsburgh a snowball's chance in hell.

7) It's funny, the main storylines for both the White Sox and the Brewers today revolve around pitchers in their bullpens. For the Brewers it is relief pitcher Trevor Hoffman's proximity to a 27 year old franchise record. He has pitched 18 scoreless innings so far this season and would break the record with his 19th today. For the White Sox it is the new addition of 2007 draft pick Aaron Poreda who pitched his first Major league effort on Friday, going for 22/3 innings while allowing only one hit. Unfortunately for both pitchers they were brought in facing 7 run deficits. That both games in this Interleague series between the Brewers and White Sox have become blowouts belies the fact that today's game has all the makings of a bullpen duel, though perhaps only after the starting pitchers give up more than their fair share of runs.


Both teams have talented bullpens, but will their performance even matter? Only if Looper or Buehrle, or both, continue their shaky ways.

Chicago will start Mark Buehrle today, easily their most dependable starter all season long. Even the steady Buehrle has been having some trouble lately, however. In his last start, against Detroit, he gave up 5 earned runs from 4 hits in 61/3 innings while walking an unusually high 4 batters. In the game before that he pitched decently against Oakland, going for 8 innings but still giving up 4 earned runs, and the White Sox lost badly as they could not generate a single run in support. He's been strong enough that it's hard to imagine he'll have the same trouble throwing strikes, but two such games in a row is already unlikely yet it's happened. Fortunately for Buehrle the Brewers appear to be headed into an epic slump. They were dominated by Jose Contreras who had just returned from a stint in the minors after an awful start to his season. Sure, he probably managed to improve some wrinkles in his mechanics in the lower pressure environment but Milwaukee surely played their part.

On the other side is Braden Looper. He has been called an innings eater, meaning he has the ability to go deep into games, saving the bullpens. That won't be necessary for a talented Brewers' bullpen that is itching at a chance to show their stuff. Looper has given up 12 home runs in 68 innings, or one every 5 or 6 innings, so he might get chased off early. Ideally he would be worked deep into the count by White Sox batters hitting foul, letting the bullpen in early without giving up runs, but the White Sox are actually hitting well in their past three games with a .414 slugging average resulting in 1.57 total bases per hit, or a double every other hit or so. To me that suggests runs will be scored by the White Sox.

Overall I think Buerhle has a better chance of limiting runs by the opposition. If he walks too many batters he could get into trouble, and the Brewers are certainly good at drawing bases on balls, but I'm counting on him throwing an overabundance of strikes. If Poreda can work his magic and Dotel can get back on track I favor the White Sox to hold on to a lead down the stretch and win this game.


Arizona will try and provide young Billy Buckner with some run support today, though they may not need it.
10) When it comes to records the biggest of the day has to be the Houston Astros' Ivan Rodriguez who is in line to catch his 2225th career game, which would put him one behind all-time leader Carlton Fisk. It may not imply much towards how the Astros will perform in this game, but with over 100 years of history an all-time record is fairly significant. Despite Miguel Tejada (2000th hit) and Lance Berkman (300th home run) passing major milestones during their current series against the Diamondbacks the Astros are batting a woeful .202 with a .312 slugging average in their past three games, thanks in large part to a 2 hit game against Dan Haren on Friday.

The Astros will face rookie pitcher Billy Buckner who has performed tremendously at the AAA level for the past couple of years, but has been ridiculously up and downARI 4 - 9 SF
ARI 3 - 2 LAD
in the Majors this year. In his last start he gave up 8 earned runs off of 13 hits and failed to make it out of the 6th inning, yet in his previous start he shutout the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium for 6 innings, allowing only 4 hits. Houston will start Brian Moehler who has posted a 6.95 ERA and 1.73 WHIP this season through 44 innings this season. In his last start, against the Cubs, he gave up 5 earned runs from 8 hits and only made it through the 3rd inning.


Ivan `Pudge' Rodriguez tags out Chicago's Mike Fontenot at home earlier this season.

Overall, I favor Billy Buckner in this matchup as he's shown better stuff this season when he is on. Moehler has had some solid games, but I think Buckner is the better pitcher at this stage in their careers. As great as Ivan Rodriguez's accomplishment and as much as his experience will help defensively he has not been contributing at the plate much lately. He has gone 6-for-31 in June, all singles, for a .194 batting average. I think Arizona's lineup is more likely to click all together with Houston getting spotty bursts leading to players getting on base, but not being batted in for runs. With Houston's bullpen giving up a home run once every 8 or 9 innings I can see Houston giving up a small lead, or falling further behind after the 7th inning and would trust Arizona's relievers with that lead much more.

14) Well, looks like Pujols walked in his first plate appearance in this game.


Albert Pujols' Hits + Walks, game-by-game, from most recent to first game of the season (left-to-right).
His on base percentage (OBP) has dropped off in the month of June, to .352 where it's been above .400 for the season as a whole and over .450 for most of April and May. You can click on the image to get a better look. He had a period of 5 games recently without getting on base more than once from a hit or a walk but in his past 4 games has gotten at least 2 hits or walks combined. I think it's likely he'll get at least 2 hits or walks in this game, and possibly even 4 total which would make hit/walk a very good choice in this prop. In three plate appearances against Cliff Lee (four now) Pujols has a hit and two walks. Assuming Lee is still in the game I think it's very likely for Pujols to reach base, especially if there are men in scoring position though it's doubtful we'll know if that's the case by the time the prop locks. In any case, I think the numbers speak for themselves.
UPDATE: Cliff Lee has pitched a no-hitter through 6 innings and is still under 70 pitches. I think he can keep up the no hitter until at least the 80 pitch mark. So, go with `Any Other Result'.