May 21st, 2009 Picks

Ahhh, 1-0-0 again today after Florida and Arizona combined for 3 runs in the first four innings of their game. Dough Davis had a real hard time with the first 5 or 6 batters in the Marlins' order, but was able to retire 7 through 9 easily. The result was Davis giving up 2 runs in the first and 1 run in the third. Fortunately, after walking in the run in the 3^rd Davis was able to retire Paulino to end the inning. Volstad did his job just fine, putting only 1 Diamondback on base in the first 4 innings. So it's an insane stunt prop day with 25 offerings on the board. I'll try to offer up some quality previews starting with overviews of the pertinent holes at TPC Four Seasons. Enjoy, good luck, and on to the picks!

1) Bo Van Pelt’s Score On #1: Par vs. Any Other Score – Par
2) Who Scores The First Runs: Bangalore Royal Challengers vs. Hyderabad – Bangalore
3) David Toms’ Score On #7: Birdie vs. Any Other Score – Any other score
4) SV Josko Ried @ F.C. Kärnten – 1^st goal of 2^nd half scored in 65^th minute or earlier
5) A. Kim’s Score On #17: Ace, Birdie, or Par vs. Any Other Score – Ace, Birdie, or Par
6) Ryuji Imada’s Score On #10: Bogey vs. Any Other Score – Any other score
7) Charles Howell III’s Score On #13: Par vs. Any Other Score – Any other score
8) Phillies @ Reds – Combine for 4 or more total bases in 1st inning
9) Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers – No runs scored in 1st inning
10) Vijay Singh’s Score On #1: Birdie or Par vs. Any Other Score – Birdie or Par

11) J. Mauer’s 1^st Plate Appearance: Walk, Hit, Strikeout vs. Any Other Result – Walk, Hit, Strikeout

12) Will Z. Greinke Record A Strikeout In The First Inning: Yes or No – Yes
13) Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds – Score a run in the 7th inning
14) Fred Couples’ Score On #16: Eagle or Birdie vs. Any Other Score – Eagle or Birdie
15) Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays – No A's hits in the 1^st inning

16) E. Longoria’s 1^st Plate Appearance: Walk, Hit, Strikeout vs. Any Other Result – Any Other Result

17) Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox – 0 or 1 hit in the 8^th inning
18) Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals – No extra base hits after 7^th inning
19) Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays – At least 1 run scored in the 4^th inning
20) Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays - 2 or more batters strikeout in the 8^th inning
21) Washington @ Long Island – 9 goals or more scored in the 1^st quarter
22) Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees - Yes, a home run hit in the first 2 innings
23) Carolina Hurricanes @ Pittsburgh Penguins – 2 goals or fewer scored in 1^st period
24) Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox - 2 hits or fewer in 3rd inning
25) Ohio State vs. Georgia – 0 runs scored in the 5^th inning
26) A. Pujols' 1^st Plate Appearance: Hit or Walk vs. Any Other Result - Any other result
27) Hurricanes @ Penguins – Carolina has more shots on goal in the 3^rd period
28) Carmelo Anthony vs. Kobe Bryant – Bryant 1^st quarter pts.
29) Arizona vs. Stanford – Stanford lead after 3 innings
30) Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners - 0 extra-base hits in first 2 innings

Analysis
1) The EDS Byron Nelson Championship is being played this year at the TPC Four Seasons golf course for all four rounds of the tournament for the second year in a row. Prior to 2008 participants would play the Cottonwood Valley Course for one of the first two rounds, and the TPC course for the final two rounds. Last year

Back

Bo Van Pelt hit par on the first hole in three rounds and had a birdie in the other round. This year the hole has been lengthened and the green moved to increase it's difficulty. Van Pelt will likely hit par without any serious hazards to negotiate, but a poorly placed approach could still lead to bogey here.

3) David Toms is having a good year on the Tour, having made over $1 million in his first 11 events. He's doing well statistically also, with a 3.88 birdie average and his 69.69 scoring average being good enough for 2^nd on the Tour. Still, it's beeen a while since Toms has played in the Byron Nelson Championship, 2004 being most recent.

David Toms' Scores On #7 (Par 5)
Year
2004	5
2003	5	4	5
2002	4	5	4
2001	3	5	5

Althought #7 has been the easiest hole on the course in terms of average score to par over the years one can see that a birdie has been elusive for Toms.



5) Anthony Kim is also having a nice year on the Tour with $800,000 in his pocket from 9 events. Hole #17 is considered one of the top 5 most difficult holes on the course, but Kim is averaging over 4 birdies per round, so a par seems well within his reach. Last year he hit par three times and birdied once on #17.

6) Ryuji Imada has played in this event for the past 4 years and has done quite well. The table to below shows his scores on TPC Four Seasons in those years. Hole #10 was one of the easiest last year so a par or better seems very likely.

Ryuji Imada's Scores On #10 (Par 4)
Year
2008	4	4
2007	3	4	5
2006	4	4	4
2005	5	4	3

7) This par 3 has a difficult looking green, so I can see Charles Howell III either placing his tee shot close enough for a birdie, or being forced to three putt for a bogey, assuming he hits onto the green in the first place, though he did hit par on the hole in all 5 rounds he played at TPC Four Seasons from 2005 to 2007.

8) The Detroit Tigers host the Texas Rangers in a rematch of a game they played April 12th where Kevin Millwood pitched against Edwin Jackson. In that game Jackson gave up a 2 run Josh Hamilton home run in the first inning and the Tigers went on to win 6-4. Jackson has given up only 4 home runs in 52 innings while Millwood has given up 7 homers in 58¹/₃ innings. Texas are batting .165 and slugging .286 in their last three games, the previous two being against Detroit. They have not scored in the 1^st inning in any of those games and have scored in the 1^st in 2 of their last 10 games. In their last 3 games the Tigers are batting .330 and slugging .580 but have still only scored in the 1^st inning in one of those games and in only 2 of their last 10. With the pitchers being as good as they are no scoring seems safest, but with Detroit and Texas each having powerful offenses it would be no surprise for one team, or both even, to score.

11) Joe Mauer started off the season on the disabled list but has made a fine comeback in the 18 games he's played since then with a .397 batting average and a .284 KWAP (strikeouts + walks per plate appearance). Together that means 61.7% of his plate appearances end with a hit, a strikeout, or a walk.

Results of Joe Mauer's 1st Plate Apperance
Opposing pitcher	Result
Danks	SO
Buehrle	SO
Pettite	single
Burnett	ground out
Chamberlain	ground out
Hughes	ground out
Verlander	single
Willis	fielder's choice
Galarraga	flied out
Bedard	single
Hernandez	double
Jakubauskas	ground out
Bergesen	single
Porcello	SO
Jackson	SO
Soria	single
Bannister	single
Ponson	home run

From this table one can see Mauer has not walked in his first at bat so far this season and has struck out or hit in 12 of 18 games. Mauer has 3 at bats against Bartolo Colon and hit twice and struck out once. Colon has a 1.00 ground ball to fly ball ratio, however, so Mauer grounding out seems likely enough to make this a risky proposition.

12) Zach Greinke has been the best pitcher in the major leagues this season, allowing 4 earned runs off of 40 hits in 60 innings pitched this season. He averages 9.75 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched, or a little over one per inning. The top of the Cleveland Indians' batting order is expected to be Sizemore, Martinez, and Cabrera again. In their careers against Greinke they have been KAPped (K per plate appearance) at a rate of .124, which is obviously very low. The three Indians have a combined batting average of .338, however, which means if they are walked or get a hit it will bring up batters lower in the order. I think the career numbers for the Indians against Greinke are a bit misleading as well, with Greinke never pitching this well in the past. Barring a base hit followed by a double play I think there is a very good chance Greinke records at least one strikeout in the first inning.

14) Fred Couples is having a decent year so far, with $600,000 netted from 9 events played. He does not have much recent experience on the TPC course at Four Rivers, having played one round in this event in 2006 and three rounds in 2001. In those four rounds he birdied #16 twice and hit par twice. The par 5 has been the easiest hole, in terms of average score to par, on the course over the past 23 years, and Couples' 4.11 birdie average is 9^th best on the Tour this year. So far 8 of 17 players through 16 have hit birdie or eagle on #16, and that includes the players destined to miss the cut. As of right now Couples has not teed off, so it might be best to check out his progress before selecting this prop.

15) Matt Garza is having a pretty good year with Tampa Bay, posting a 4-2 record in 8 starts to go along with his 3.50 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.

Garza's hits against and Oakland's hits in the 1st
Garza's Hits Against	Opponent	Oakland's Hits	Opposing Pitcher
1	@Boston	2	Hochevar
2	N.Y. Yankees	0	Bannister
0	Chicago White Sox	2	Jackson
0	@Oakland	0	Porcello
0	Boston	4	Galarraga
1	Baltimore	2	Niemann
0	@Boston	1	Shields
0	Cleveland	1	Kazmir
Most recent results are at the bottom

Only 61% of that low WHIP comes from hits with 36 hits in 54 innings pitched, which averages to two hits given up for every three innings pitched. Oakland's batting order has a lifetime batting average of .171, so they hit off of Garza less often than the average opponent Garza faces. From the table one sees Garza limited Oakland to zero hits in a game earlier this season and that Oakland has been hitting well in the first in their past 4 games. I think Oakland is due to have a tough first inning and Garza will do well to limit their hits.

16) American League Rookie of the Year, Evan Longoria, is looking to make a regular appearance at the All-Star game during his career.

Longoria's Most Recent 1st Plate Apperances
Opposing pitcher	Result
Beckett	popped out
Hendrickson	lined out
Bergesen	ground out
Carmona	single
Reyes	SO
Pavano	SO
Aquino	BB
Gallagher	single
Outman	ground out
Most recent results are at the bottom

He's started off this season with a .331 batting average and .650 slugging average. He has a KWAP of .323 meaning he's walked, hit, or struck out in 62.4% of his plate appearances this season. From the table on the right one can see Longoria has gotten out with the ball in play 4 times in his last 10 games. Longoria has 5 plate appearances against Dallas Braden, failing to hit, walk, or strikeout in 2 of them. Braden has walked, struck out, or been hit by 102 of the 210 batter's he's faced. Longoria flied out in his first plate appearance in a game earlier against Oakland with Braden pitching so I can see something like that happening again. I think Braden is too skilled to walk Longoria, he's walked only 14 batters this year, and Longoria is too skilled to be struck out by Braden. That leaves Longoria to get a hit, and batting .200 against Braden in 5 at bats I have to favor any other result.

17) This game is in the bottom of the 7^th inning and the Twins currently have 20 hits to 4 hits for the White Sox. The table to the left shows the White Sox's and Indians' reliever's hits per inning pitched (HIP). Only relievers with 10 or more innings pitched, i.e.in the regular rotation, are included. Keep in mind that Nick Blackburn may well pitch through the 8^th inning with 65 pitches getting him through 5.

Bullpen HIP for CWS and CLE
White Sox	HIP	Cleveland	HIP
Dotel	0.59	Mijares	0.75
Linebrink	1.00	Nathan	0.75
Thornton	0.89	Dickey	1.33
Jenks	0.86	Guerrier	0.66
Carrasco	1.22	Ayala	1.28
Richard	1.38	Breslow	0.77
Broadway (CWS) out, Crain (CLE): 0.92

One can see that Dotel and Guerrier lead their teams with the lowest HIP. There probably won't be a chance to see which reliever will be pitching before the prop locks, but at least one can get a good idea of their chances. With the way Minnesota has been hitting the ball Chicago will need Dotel to limit them to 0 or 1 hit, while Cleveland could probably get away with anyone against the White Sox today. It looks like it will be the bottom 3 batters of the order that will be up in the 8^th for the White Sox, but the top of the order will be up for Minnesota though with a 20 run lead they may pinch hit. I favor 0 or 1 hit in the inning but only because I see Chicago playing Dotel.

22) Adam Eaton and the Baltimore Orioles take on Joba Chamberlain and the New York Yankees at the new Yankee Stadium. Most anyone who has followed baseball this season is aware of the penchants the ballpark has for home runs, especially out towards right field. Eaton and Chamberlain are both right handed pitchers, a favorable situation for left handed batters already predisposed to hitting out to right field.

Home Run Stats For Eaton and Chamberlain
	Eaton	Chamberlain
Home Runs per 2IP ('09)	0.39	0.25
Batters Faced per HR ('09)	36	24
BF/HR vs. Opponent (Career)	11	69

If both pitchers do their job they would only face 6 batters, and by definition would not have given up a home run. Chamberlain doesn't seem likely to give up a home run to the Orioles in any case. If Eaton puts men on base, however, he could see 11 batters in 2 innings. I would favor either pitcher giving up a home run early at Yankee Stadium here with the Orioles having 5 players who can bat left handed in the lineup today and the Yankees with 6.

23)	2 of Pittsburgh's 14 playoff games and 2 of Carolina's 15 have had 3 or more goals scored in the 1st period.

27) During these playoffs the Carolina Hurricanes have taken an average of 10.6 shots on goal per period and allowed an 10.5 per period. The Pittsburgh Penguins have taken 11.6 shots on goal and allowed 9.5 on average. Generally, when a team is behind they will take more shots on goal to make up for that so the best pick here would be to take whoever is behind going into the 3^rd period. If the game is tied then I would take Pittsburgh, but I have a feeling Carolina will be trailing after 2.

30) Erik Bedard and Joe Saunders face off at Safeco Field and we look to see if either team can be expected to make an extra base hit in the first two innings. Saunders already has one game under his belt allowing zero extra base hits in 2 innings at Safeco Field. Bedard did the same to the Angels at Angel Stadium. Obviously one hit could end this but I think Bedard and Saunders can retire 6 to 9 batters without giving up anything more than a single.

Pitcher vs. Batter Stats
	Saunders/LAA	Bedard/SEA
Total Bases/Hit	1.38	1.40
Hits/IP	1.83	1.86
Bats Faced/Hit	16	15

May 20th, 2009 Picks

1-0-0 today as I brought my streak to 7 with the Los Angeles Angels' hits off of Felix Hernandez. The Angels had three singles, by Figgins, Abreu, and Hunter before Hernandez got his first strikeout. King Felix trailed by only 1 after the 2^nd inning, with 4 hits given up. Things started to get away from Hernandez in the 3^rd inning as he gave up two more hits without striking any batters out. In fact, Hernandez never got his fourth strike out as he gave up 1 hit in the 4^th, and 2 hits in both the 5^th and 6^th innings. The Angels had gotten 11 hits off of Hernandez and were leading 6-4 at that point. Los Angeles held on to win 6-5 and hand Hernandez his third loss of the season. And so, on to some fucking picks.

1) Chennai Super Kings vs. Kings XI Punjab – 299 runs or fewer
2) Werder Bremen vs. Shakhtar Donetsk – Shakhtar Donetsk
3) Arizona Diamondbacks @ Florida Marlins – 4 runs or fewer by the 5^th inning
4) Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals – Pittsburgh
5) Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox – Toronto
6) Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals – Kansas City
7) Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox – Chicago
8) Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals – St. Louis
9) Cleveland Cavaliers win margin vs. Rashard Lewis FG made – Cleveland win margin
10) San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres – San Diego leads after 4 innings
11) David Wright vs. Rafael Furcal – Furcal records more total bases

Analysis
1) A spot in the top four will be up for grabs when Chennai Super Kings battle Kings XI Punjab at Centurion Park with either team able to clinch a spot in the semi-finals with a victory.

Kings XI Punjab will try to survive Hayden's onslaught.

Can Chennai Super Kings figure out their bowling woes in time to clinch a semi-final spot?

As always there is a terrific preview of the match from CricInfo. Both teams are in decent form, going 3-2 in their last 5 matches. Chennai's most recent match, against Kolkata Knight Riders, saw 377 runs being scored as Kolkata successfully chased 188 runs by Chennai in the first innings. Captain M. Dhoni called it one of the worst bowling performances all year in the Indian Premier. Chennai won the match previous to the Kolkata debacle, chasing Mumbai Indians' 147 runs successfully by scoring 151 with only 3 wickets against them. Kings XI Punjab are coming off a nail-biting victory over Deccan Chargers, winning by 1 run, 134/7 to 133/8, as they successfully fended of Deccan. They also picked up an impressive victory over Delhi Daredevils by 5 wickets, 123/4 to 120/9. Altogether Kings XI Punjab have collected 17 wickets from their previous two matches. They will need to do that well against Chennai to defeat the Super Kings for the first time ever in the Indian Premier. With orange cap leader Matthew Hayden near the top of the order a few early wickets would greatly boost Kings XI's chances. Their first match of the tournament saw 357 runs being scored as Hayden went ballistic, scoring 89 runs off 58 balls for a strike rate of 153.45! Punjab nearly won the match anyways but for the death bowling of Surresh Raina. He was not up to the task against Kolkata, however, which is a concern for the Super Kings. Punjab's bowlers will still have a difficult task in any case as Chennai's batsmen are all in prime form. These two teams have seen 300 or more runs scored in three of the four matches they have played. All three times the Super Kings batted first, and the one match which saw only 228 runs scored had Kings XI batting first with Chennai completing the chase with 31 balls remaining. For this match purple cap hopeful, Yusuf Abdulla, should get the start in favor of Brett Lee, but whoever starts the Punjabi will have strong bowlers. It should be a great match with the most in-form bowling side facing the most in-form batting side. I think it will be the falling of wickets that will decide if this match goes over 300 runs or under. If Chennai bowl as they did against Kolkata then Kings XI will surely score over 150 runs, but if Kings XI can get batsmen such as Hayden and Dhoni out before they reach their half-centuries the match will surely go under 300.

2) After 37 years the final champion of the UEFA Cup will be crowned before the newly minted Europa League debuts next season. SV Werder Bremen will take on Shakhtar Donetsk FC at Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium for a knockout final to determine the champion. Should the score be tied after 90 minutes there will be two 15 minute halves added on, and a penalty shootout to determine a winner if the score remains tied after the extra time. Both clubs entered the UEFA Cup in the third knockout round thanks to their finishing third in their respective Champions League groups. A detailed summary of their roads to Istanbul can be found here. Werder Bremen will be unable to field their strongest side with star striker Diego and forward Hugo Almeida suspended, and defender Per Mertesacker to miss with injury. Fortunately, Nando, Rosenberg, and Pizarro have all returned to training and will likely figure in the final. In the pre-match press conference Shakhtar Donetsk manager Mircea Lucescu emphasized that the injuries and suspensions are not important with the quality and depth of both clubs, though he would like to see Diego play. When asked how he would solve the task of winning the final Lucescu said:

"I am sure that tomorrow we shall see a very interesting match between two teams representing different styles. Werder are playing attacking football. They have physical presence. Shakhtar’s style is based on individual skills."

A couple of previews give some perspective for the match, one being from Soccer Lens. They highlight Shakhtar Donetsk's excellent form domestically, winning their past 6 matches, and in the UEFA Cup in which they defeated Tottenham Hotspur, CSKA Moscow, Olympique Marseille, and Dynamo Kiev by a combined score of 12 to 4.

Will it be Shakhtar Donetsk or Werder Bremen hoisting the trophy today?

Another nice preview can be found atgoal.com. They point out Shakhtar Donetsk are the healthier side, with only Tomas Hübschman to miss. Both previews predict a 2-1 win for Shakhtar Donetsk despite most sports books very slightly favoring Werder Bremen to be the first German side to win a European competition in 8 years. Part of the reason for this is the German Bundesliga being highly regarded with respect to the Ukrainian Premier League and the fact a Ukrainian club has never won a UEFA Cup or Champions League trophy. I think Shakhtar Donetsk will prove to be the more disciplined side, and with a strong defense will be able to clear most balls before Pizarro, Rosenberg, and Hunt can cause too much danger. The key for Werder Bremen in this match, in my mind, is the play of their backfield and keeper Tim Wiese. Shakhtar Donetsk's Brazilian attack will be on target with shots conceded to them inside the box, so they will have to do well on clearance. On top of that players like Ilsinho and Jadson have the skill to be on target from distance. Wiese will have to be at his very best to deny those opportunities. Overall I think Shakhtar Donetsk will prove to be the more disciplined side and that will make the difference in a 3-2 win in extra time for the Ukrainians.

4) The Washington Nationals are hoping to snap a 6 game losing streak tonight when they host the Pittsburgh Pirates who are the winners of 4 straight. Washington will look to John Lannan and their strong offense to deliver. Lannan has a 4.00 ERA and 1.47 WHIP through 8 starts this season, fairly respectable numbers. They only tell half of the story, however, which is that only half of Lannan's starts would qualify as quality starts. Part of the reason for the lack of quality starts is that he has yet to throw over 100 pitches, limiting how far he can go in a game. He has a good ground out to fly out ratio, but he has some control issues, yielding 7 home runs in his 8 starts. The Pirates have been batting .305 and slugging .500 in their last three games, and have a lifetime batting average of .269 against Lannan. I think they may start to average out, but with the number of poor starts under Lannan's belt Pittsburgh's batting may not drop off much at all. To help ensure they do keep hitting the Pirates are likely to startCraig Monroe against the left-hander Lannan. Wahington's bullpen has been atrocious this season, giving up countless leads the Nationals have earned. With a combined ERA of 6.68 and WHIP of 1.79, they have been very unlucky with the sheer number of runs given up and the Nationals' fielders have not helped. Unfortunately for Washington they will have to do without their starting center fielder, Elijah Dukes. The Nationals lost Dukes in the series against Philadelphia, and have designated infielder Alex Cintron and called up outfielder Justin Maxwell to help patch up the position. Washington also called up reliever Jason Bergmann to hopefully bolster their bullpen. Bergmann has pitched in 12 games for AAA Syracuse giving up 11 earned runs for a 1.12 ERA and 1.13 WHIP so he may be able to help some time soon, but not in today's game. If Pittsburgh can get a few hits, hit some foul balls, and generally work the count against Lannan they should see the Nationals' bullpen for 3 or 4 innings. The Nationals will probably need to build a large lead by the 6th inning, and they could do it. I would bet on Washington's offense to score runs over Pittsburgh's on any given day. Paul Maholm, who will be starting for the Pirates, should keep Pittsburgh in the game, even in that scenario. Maholm is coming off a terrific start against Colorado in which he pitched 7 shutout innings, giving up only 5 hits. Although Maholm has not pitched well at Nationals Park in the past I think he will be able to keep Pittsburgh within striking distance, say within 3 runs. Overall I can see Washington winning this game, with Maholm struggling a bit and Lannan pitching well against a Pirates team whose offense has been known to suddenly disappear, but I think it's more likely Lannan is the one who is off and the Pirates come from behind to win a close game.

6) The Cleveland Indians, losers of four straight, are another team looking to discard their losing ways as they continue their visit to Kauffman Stadium. It won't be easy however, as the Royals have one of the best pitching staffs in the majors, though Gil Meche has been struggling lately. Meche's struggles started against Toronto in Kansas City when the Blue Jays bombed him for 7 hits and 5 earned runs. Meche walked 5 batters, only striking out 2. He then suffered through two mediocre starts on the road before another poor outing at home, this time against Baltimore. Meche lasted only 4¹/₃ innings, giving up 5 earned runs off of 6 hits, and striking out only 1 batter. He's disappointed, saying:

"It's pretty much mostly because of my back and all the things going on. So hopefully Wednesday will be a different story and we'll turn the corner."

His back supposedly feels fine today, but one has to wonder about 'all the things going on.' Cleveland have only batted .230 with a slugging average of .390 in their last three games but have a slugging average over .450 against Meche in 254 at bats, so I think they should hit fairly well. If Meche has not regained his form the Royals will be looking at overcoming 5 or 6 runs instead of just 2 or 3. Fortunately, Kansas City has been batting well themselves and will be facing Fausto Carmona, against whom they have a .343 batting average and .496 slugging average in 137 at bats. Carmona has been consistently average in his starts for the most part. He has a 5.70 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in 47¹/₃ innings this season. In his last two starts he's pitched 12 innings, giving up 6 earned runs off of 8 hits. One problem for him has been walking batters onto base. In those two starts he walked 9 batters while striking out only 6, and he has a K/BB ratio of 1.0 all season. I think the Royals only win as long as Meche has a decent outing, keeping the Royals close, or allowing them to take a lead if Carmona has a poor outing. The Royals' bullpen can be counted on to hold a lead, but as in yesterday's game where the Royals scored 4 runs in the 9th inning to win, the Indians bullpen cannot.

8) The St. Louis Cardinals will try to win two games in a row for the first time since the beginning of May, when they won two against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates. Helping them in their cause will be 2005 Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter, who will get his first start since injuring himself in a game against Arizona while batting after pitching 3 scoreless innings. He pitched another 7 scoreless innings in his first start, against Pittsburgh, allowing only 1 hit and striking out 7. Ryan Dempster will take the mound for the Chicago Cubs with two starts against St. Louis already under his belt. One game was at Wrigley Field which the Cubs won, and one was at Busch Stadium which the Cubs lost. Dempster pitched 6 innings in both giving up 4 runs at Wrigley and 3 runs at Busch Stadium. Dempster has been alternating between quality starts and decent starts, and is coming off a quality start against San Diego.

Another home run by Albert Pujols would catapult St. Louis' chances of winning.

Prior to that he had a decent start, giving up 4 earned runs in 6 innings at Milwaukee, a game which the Cubs eventually lost 12-6. The Cardinals have continued their futility at the plate without Ryan Ludwick and Ricky Ankiel out of the lineup. Their batting average has sunk all the way to .179 and their slugging average to .305 for their last three games. Ricky Ankiel could return from a bruised right shoulder which might bolster their offense, but will probably help the outfield more than anything as Ankiel is batting .100 with one single against Dempster in 10 at bats. With Dempster pitching away from Wrigley, and potentially due for a mediocre outing, the Cardinals can only hope they figure out how to swing those bats the way they started the season. The Cubs, meanwhile, have also been struggling with their bats, though it may be expected considering the number of injuries they have had to deal with. If Carpenter is still in form after hurting his rib cage the Cubs will certainly struggle to generate offense and it will then be up to Pujols, Duncan, Rasmus, and Molina to deliver Carpenter the win. I think Carpenter will probably give up a couple of runs, and the Cardinals will hit better than they have been, but still not well enough to give themselves a large lead. The bullpens may only see two innings of play, but that would be long enough for either to give up a small lead. Overall, either team has a good chance of winning this game, but I favor the Cardinals with Carpenter pitching at home.

11) The New York Mets try to avoid a three game sweep at the hands of the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight after losing the first game due to costly errors. Starting for New York will be Livan Hernandez, who carries a 5.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP into the game. Opposite Hernandez will be Jeff Weaver, filling in for the scratched Stults. It will be Weaver's third start of the season. Weaver's WHIP is not much better than Hernandez's at 1.44, the difference being Weaver's WHIP consists of 70% hits and 30% walks, while Hernandez's WHIP is made up of 80% hits and 20% walks. Being walked does not count as an at bat, and obviously, precludes a player from getting a hit in that plate appearance.

Tonight, we're most interested in the number of total bases recorded by David Wright of the Mets and Rafael Furcal of the Dodgers. Thus far this season Wright has been the superior batter, with a .361 batting average and a .544 slugging average compared to Furcal's .239 batting average and .296 slugging average. Unlike last season where each player averaged an identical 2.1 total bases per game

David Wright is currently hitting on base in over 80% of games he's played. Click on the image for a closer view.

Furcal is only averaging 1.3 total bases per game so far this season. Looking at the chart it's apparent Wright's numbers are greater because of his lack of games with zero hits and the larger number of games with 4 or more hits. The lower chart shows the proportion of each players' games with a specific number of total bases. One can see

that each player went 'oh-fer' at about the same rate, with Wright having more games with 1 or 8 total bases, and Furcal having more games with 2 or 3 total bases. Wright is currently on an 11 game hit streak and might be expected to have a game with zero hits, the caveat being that Wright is 26 years old and likely to have the best season of his career this year or next. Furcal has been dealing with injuries all season and is by no means due to have a huge game batting. Of the two pitchers Hernandez gives up home runs at nearly twice the rate Weaver does, with the bullpens being equal so if there is a home run hit it would most likely be by Furcal, or one of the other Dodgers. Unless Furcal does hit a home run I think this will end up being a very close contest. I have to give the edge to Furcal with Hernandez giving up more hits of the starting pitchers, with Hernandez being more homer prone, and with the prospect of Wright maintaining over 80% of his games played with a hit being highly unlikely.

May 19th, 2009 Picks

1-0-0 again today and do I feel lucky to have gotten it. After I passed up on FC Nordsjælland and switched my pick to Carolina, meaning I wasn't confident in either pick, I settled on the L.A. Dodgers against the Mets. It looked good at first with the Dodgers picking up a couple of runs in the 1^st inning off of Redding. The Mets got a run back in the 2^nd, however, with a Wright double and a couple of sacrifice hits to advance the run in. Then, something I did not expect, Redding took on Wolf straight up in the pitchers duel. For the next 5 innings each pitcher did well with Wolf giving up 3 hits and Redding giving up 1. In the top of the 8^th Wolf gave up a double to Angel Pagan and was relieved after retiring the next two batters.

Wade gave up an RBI single to Sheffield immediately after and the Mets tied the game 2-2. J.J. Putz was brought in and nearly gave up a run with runners on first and third with two outs, but induced a ground out from pinch hitter Loretta. The Dodgers brought in Broxton for the top of the 9^th with the idea of ending the game at the bottom of the inning. Broxton did his job, but the Dodgers brought in a pinch hitter for him to lead off the ninth and Paul ground out. Feliciano was brought in with runners on first and third again with two outs and he caused Ethier to ground out to send the game into extra innings.

Troncoso was brought in for the Dodgers, and he retired his first two batters before giving up a single and walking the next. Fortunately, Tatis grounded out to third to end the Mets' turn in the 10^th. Brian Stokes made quick work of the Dodgers to extend the game for another inning. Troncoso remained in the game and repeated his patter, retiring two, and giving up a single. Angel Pagan then hit a deep triple but Ryan Church was called out when the umpires determined he had failed to step on third base as he ran past. Stokes started off the bottom of the 11^th by walking a batter, then a throwing error by Beltran allowed runners to reach first and second, and the Mets intentionally walked Pierre to load the baess. Furcal almost walked to end the game but ended up hitting a fly ball to get out. The Dodgers nearly blew another chance when Hudson hit into a routine double play but another error by the Mets allowed Loretta to score and end the game. *whew* And so on to the picks.

1) Southern California vs. Ohio State – Southern California
2) California vs. Duke – Duke
3) Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers – Detroit
4) Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox – Boston
5) Chicago Blackhawks @ Detroit Red Wings – 5 goals or fewer
6) Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros – Milwaukee
7) Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals – St. Louis
8) Which Team Gets No. 1 Pick: Kings or Wizards vs. Any Other Team – Any Other Team
9) Chauncey Billups ast. vs. Los Angeles Lakers win margin – Los Angeles win margin
10) San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres – San Diego
11) L. A. Angels hits off Hernandez vs. Felix Hernandez strikeouts – Angels hits off Hernandez

Analysis
4) The Boston Red Sox return to Fenway Park after a rough 6 game road trip that saw them drop 2 of 3 to both the Angels and the Mariners. In their series with the Mariners they batted a paltry .224, though they did slug .398 off of those hits to average 1.78 total bases per hit. They will be facing Brian Tallet when the Blue Jays visit today. Tallet has been a reliever for most of his career, and was pressed into a starting role after injuries struck Toronto's rotation. Tallet has done very well this season with only one truly awful outing, at Kansas City, where he gave up 10 earned runs on 11 hits in only 4 innings. Even with that on his record he has a 4.68 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, striking out nearly 7 batters per 9. He will face a stiff test against the Red Sox, who will be without Kevin Youkilis but will be returning David Ortiz and Julio Lugo to the lineup. Toronto should consider themselves fortunate if Tallet can get through 6 innings with only 2 or 3 runs conceded. Boston will be starting 42 year old Tim Wakefield on the mound tonight. Wakefield is coming off a poor outing against the Angels in which he lost a 4 run lead, giving up 7 earned runs without getting out of the 5^th inning. Wakefield has been very up and down this season, at one point throwing a 7 inning 1 hit gem followed by a 5 inning, 7 hit, 5 run game. Toronto has been batting well in their past three games, but no better than their season average. Against Wakefield they have batted .267 and slugged .409 in 247 at bats, and I think Wakefield will have an average game, meaning just a few runs given up to the Blue Jays. Overall I think Tallet is fortunate to have as low an ERA as he has, due to the number of batters he puts on base. As long as Wakefield has a quality start the Red Sox should be able to take a lead and hold on to it.

6) The Milwaukee Brewers are on a roll, winning their last 6 in a row and 8 of their last 10. Somehow they've found a way to win even when their bats are quiet, taking all three against the Cardinals and scoring 17 runs even though they only batted .183 and slugged .326 in the series. For their series against the Houston Astros the Brewers will have to do without second baseman Rickie Weeks, who suffered a season ending wrist injury while striking out in the first inning on Sunday against the Cardinals. Casey McGehee is expected to start against left-hander Mike Hampton today. McGehee is batting only .188 in 16 at bats this season, all singles. The Brewers still have plenty of power in their lineup, with Braun, Fielder, Hart, and Cameron all over .400 in slugging percentage. The Astros have some power in their lineup as well, with Lance Berkman improving, Hunter Pence showing promise, and the ever dangerous Carlos Lee. The Astros will have Mike Hampton on the mound to try and limit the Brewers. Hampton has a 5.31 ERA and 1.54 WHIP so far this season but has done very well in giving up only 4 home runs, and inducing more ground balls than fly balls this season. That doesn't bode well for the Brewers' power hitting, but it's unlikely Hampton could possibly shut down the Brewers any more than the Cardinals' pitchers did. In his last three starts he has pitched 15²/₃ innings and given up 19 hits for 13 earned runs while walking one more batter than he's struck out. If anything the Brewers will see a resurgence in hitting against Hampton, and with the number of batters he walks even singles could be deadly. The key for the Brewers will be Dave Bush limiting the Astros' improving bats. Bush has a 3.83 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, mainly due to his rarely walking a batter. Bush has had three straight quality starts, including a 5-3 win over Florida where he pitched for 7 innings, giving up 6 hits for 2 runs and striking out 7 batters and walking only 1. Overall, even if Hampton has a terrific start, it would take an abysmal one from Bush to give Houston a large lead. Even a four run lead with 3 innings to go would not be considered safe with Houston's bullpen giving up a home run every 6 innings pitched. If Milwaukee starts hitting well again, and I suspect they will, it should be a fairly easy victory.

7) The St. Louis Cardinals are hoping to get back on track when they return home to Busch Stadium after being swept in a 3 game series against the Milwaukee Brewers. They'll have to do so without the help of Ryan Ludwick or Rick Ankiel both of whom are still recuperating from minor injuries. That could spell trouble for the Cardinals, not only because of their skill with the bat, but also because Joel Piniero will be pitching. Piniero is quite possibly the league leader in putting balls in play, having walked only 7 batters in and struck out only 14 in 45¹/₃ innings pitched. Without two of their starting outfielders it could mean more hits for a Cubs team that is already batting .283 and slugging .462 in their last three games and have a career slugging average of .642 against Piniero. Piniero will have to hope for mostly ground outs, however, and he can get them with a 1.40 ground ball to fly ball ratio. His opponent, Ted Lilly, is hoping the Cardinals remain in a major hitting slump. St. Louis batted .222 and had a .273 slugging average in their series with the Brewers, a serious drop from their season average where they earned 1.67 total bases for each hit. With a 0.39 ground ball to fly ball ratio Lilly depends on striking batters out and getting enough action on the ball so that a hit pops out rather than reaches the fence. Lilly has been rock solid at Wrigley field and has put in three quality starts in a row. Away from home it has been a bit different where he has put in both of his poor starts, including a game at Houston where he gave up 4 home runs. I think there's a good chance St. Louis' offense wakes up and Lilly gets roughed up a bit, but unless Piniero can do better against the Cubs, especially Lee and Soriano, it will be for naught. I think there are more scenarios that could play out that favor the Cubs winning and they would make a good pick, but I favor the Cardinals at home over the Cubs away from Wrigley in this one.

8) It's time for the NBA Draft Lottery and to see who will be selecting the first player on June 25^th. The Lottery works by selecting the teams who will select the first three picks with the remaining 11 places determined by each team's final record during the regular season. The teams to pick first are chosen during the lottery process by selecting 4 balls out of 14 from a lotto machine. There are a total of 1001 combinations. Each team is assigned a certain number of combinations, in this case Sacramento receives 250 and Washington receives 178 while 1 of the combinations is a designated 'null' combination, i.e. they redraw the 4 balls if this 1 is chosen. The remaining 12 teams in the lottery receive some proportion of the other 572 combinations. Clearly there are more combinations representing the other 12 teams which could be drawn. Indeed, in the past 17 years the two teams with the most combinations have received the number 1 pick only 4 times: Orlando in 1992 who selected Shaquille O'Neal with the pick, Philadelphia in 1996 who picked Allen Iverson, Cleveland in 2003 who got LeBron James, and Orlando again in 2004 who selected Dwight Howard. It's a toss-up no matter what, but the odds favor any other team.9) Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, featuring the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets, is finally upon us. Denver has been incredibly hot lately, winning both of their series in 6 games or less. In the first round they lost an early 16 point first quarter lead before falling just short against New Orleans and followed up that game with a 58 point thrashing on the road. Against Dallas they lost Chris "Birdman" Andersen for a game and had Andersen in foul trouble for a second to earn their two losses in that series. In Denver's road games Chauncey Billups has averaged 6 assists during the playoffs which is exactly what he averaged on the road all season. Looking at the graph above one can see Billups had 7 or more assists in only 17 of 41 road games this year, with 83% of his games seeing him net 3 to 8 assists. Los Angeles has also played well, though they've been hot and cold, playing terribly in their losses to Houston and loss to Utah, and being dominant in their 8 victories. At the Staples Center the Lakers are 6-1 in these playoffs, losing Game 1 to the Houston Rockets and winning all 6 other games by double digits. Throughout the season the Lakers have an average margin of victory of 13.1 points on their home court. They will face tough competition against the Denver Nuggets, though they beat Denver by double digits in both games at the Staples Center during the regular season. Obviously, it will be very important for Denver to get strong performances from their bench, especially from Andersen and J.R. Smith. If they get those performances, and the starters can avoid too many turnovers, say 12 or fewer, Denver actually has a good chance of winning this game. I think the Lakers' defense will cause those turnovers, however, as Denver averages just over 15 turnovers per game. If Bynum continues to play as he did in Game 7 against the Rockets I think the Lakers will win by at least 8 points and that will be equal to or more than Billups' assists in this game.

Click on the image for a closer look.

11) The Los Angeles Angels will visit Safeco Field for the fifth time this season to take on the Mariners and Felix Hernandez. The red line in the graph above shows how many hits the Angels have gotten off of the starting pitcher of the opposition on a game-by-game basis. The navy blue line shows the number of times the Angels struck out against those starting pitchers. It's immediately apparent the Angels usually get a hit more often than they strike out, and on average they get nearly twice as many hits as strikeouts with 6.9 hits per game compared to 3.7 strikeouts per game. Looking at the graph one can see the Angels have only had fewer hits than strikeouts in 3 of 37 games this season. It's no surprise considering the Angels are averaging 1 strikeout for every 6 at bats and 1 hit every 4 at bats. The dotted lines represent, above, Hernandez's game high number of strikeouts last season and this season, and below, his average number of strikeouts this season. Hernandez has done well this season with 5 of 8 starts seeing him record more strikeouts than hits given up. Against the Angles, however, he has not seen that kind of success. In 4 starts against L.A. last season he gave up more hits in 3 games and had the same number of strikeouts as hits given up in 1. The current Angels' lineup, without Vlad Guerrero, is batting .267 against Hernandez over their careers, with a .222 strikeout average. That will make things very close, with the Angels averaging one more hit than strikeouts if they manage 24 at bats against Hernandez. As long as the Angels are able to get a bat on the ball rather than strike out they should win this prop by a small margin.

May 18th, 2009 Picks

1-0-0 today for me, and props to you if you picked up on Goydos, Torquay United, the Yankees, the Padres, and the Magic. My sole win of the day came with Jake Peavy and the San Diego Padres. San Diego took an early 2-0 lead in the bottom of the first before Arroyo settled down to give us a true pitchers duel. Arroyo started off the game by walking walking Macias and hitting Edgar Gonzalez with a pitch. He got Adrian Gonzalez and Headley to strike out and nearly got out of the jam, but Kouzmanoff and Gerut hit a pair of RBI singles before Wilson flied out to end the inning.

From there the Padres got a man or two on base but couldn't drive them home each inning while the Reds got absolutely nothing, no walks and no hits, until Dickerson hit a solo shot home run in the top of the 6^th. Kouzmanoff got the run back with a solo home run of his own to lead off the bottom of the 8^th. In the 9^th inning Peavy got the first two outs before giving up a single to Hairston Jr., and finished the complete effort by striking out Bruce. The Padres completed the sweep with the 3-1 victory. So on the damn picks.

1) Vejle @ FC Nordsjælland – FC Nordsjælland win
2) Sunderland @ Portsmouth – Sunderland win or draw
3) Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees – Minnesota
4) Carolina Hurricanes @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Carolina
5) Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals – St. Louis
6) Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners – Seattle
7) New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers – Los Angeles

Analysis
1) Today the relegation focus is shifted to the Danish SAS-Ligæn when Vejle Boldklub visit Farum Stadion to take on F.C. Nordsjælland. Vejle currently sit at the bottom of the table and have 4 matches to try and gain 4 points on their closest rival, Sonderjyske. FC Nordsjælland are currently 4 spots safe of relegation with 28 points and need to secure 6 points from their final 4 matches to ensure their place in the SAS-Ligæn next season. Overall Vejle have had the better recent form, going 0-3-3 (W-D-L) in their previous 6 matches, with draws away at AaB and Sonderjyske and a draw at home with fellow relegation side AC Horsens. They have scored 4 goals in those matches but have conceded 12, being outscored by 8 in their three losses. FC Nordsjælland are only 0-1-5 in their previous 6 matches, with the draw coming at home against Sondersjyske. They have only scored 2 goals and conceded 8 in those 6 matches. FC Nordsjælland played a much tougher schedule in that stretch, however, with the losses coming against the top 4 clubs in the league and 6^th place AGF Aarhus, while Vejle had played mostly bottom half teams. The selection of each side has been revealed by their managers. FC Nordsjælland will see their defense bolstered by the return of Henrik Kildentoft, while Vejle are forced to field one of their weakest sides yet this season with Brian Nielsen and Ibrahim Salou failing to pass their latest fitness tests, and defender Bora Zivkovic, and midfielders Steffan Kielstrup and Allan Gaarde being out with suspensions. It will be only the second match of the season Velje BK have played without Zivkovic, while Kielstrup and Nielsen have started a majority of their matches. All five players out started for Vejle in 1-1 draw played at home against FC Nordsjælland and their contributions will be missed. I think FC Nordsjælland will take advantage this situation, their best opportunity for 3 points, and bring themselves one victory away from safety with a 2-0 win.

2) Portsmouth F.C. interim manager Phil Hart has some decisions to make as Hull City and Newcastle United failed to make up the ground necessary to be able to catch Portsmouth in the tables, making Pompey safe and ensuring their place in the Premier League for next season. With that in mind Hart may decide to rest some of his senior players in favor of giving some younger reserves some match experience. Striker Peter Crouch may receive some rest in favor of Kanu, Younes Kaboul in the backfield could start on the sidelines as well. Look for Noe Pamarot and Armand Traore to possibly figure in the Starting XI as well for this match. Ricky Sbragia, for Sunderland, cannot be as free with his selections with Newcastle still within reach and relegation an unlikely, but real, possibility. SkySports highlights each clubs recent form. Portsmouth are 1-2-3 (W-D-L) in their last six with 3 goals scored and 9 goals conceded while Sunderland are 1-1-4 in their last 6 with only 2 goals scored and 7 goals conceded. Both sides have had an awful time finishing for the past few weeks, with Sunderland not having scored in their last 3 matches, and Portsmouth with zero goals in their previous 4. Overall Pompey are 7-3-8 with 23 goals for and 28 goals against in 18 matches this season at Fratton Park. Sunderland are 3-6-9 with 12 goals scored and 26 against away from The Stadium of Light. Sunderland look to be bolstered by the return of defender George McCarthy to the backfield. They also expect Teemu Tainio, Kenwyne Jones, and Kieran Richardson to shake off minor knocks and figure for this match. As always the BBC has a wonderful preview prepared for the match. They note that reserve keeper Craig Gordon and defender Nyron Nosworthy are out for Sunderland. They also note that Sunderland have not won at Fratton Park since 1997 and have not won a top flight match there in 51 years. Another good sign for Portsmouth, who have had 5 players sent off this season, is that referee Alan Wiley has only sent off two players in 26 matches. The BBC also carry statistics for the Black Cats and for Pompey. Sunderland F.C. will be looking to possibly continue their use of a 4-2-3-1 formation as a way of getting Kieran Richardson more scoring opportunities, although he has not been able to finish lately. Pompey fans believe their side can come away with the result, but they see it as a difficult prospect especially if Hart opts to go with a younger lineup. The London Telegraph carries a preview in which they expect these sides to play to a 'boring, lifeless draw'. Even some Pompey fans agree with the prospect of a scoreless draw being the result here. Portsmouth have won the last two matches they have played against Sunderland, both thanks to penalty kicks drilled home by Jermaine Defoe, who was transferred to Tottenham Hotspurs this January. Once the penalty came in the final minute of injury time and Sunderland lost 2-1 and the other time they were well on their way to a 0-0 draw when Portsmouth was awarded a 69' penalty that eventually led to a 1-0 win. I think barring the same kind of finish and penalties Sunderland will be motivated to get a result and can secure a 1-1 draw here.

3) After three straight games won with a walk-off run the New York Yankees hope to complete a four game sweep of the Minnesota Twins. Minnesota will start Glen Perkins on the mound for this game. Perkins has a 4.27 ERA and an impressive 1.19 WHIP through 7 starts this season. His first three games were very good, shutting down teams such as the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays and going 8 innings in each and allowing no more than 7 hits and 2 earned runs. Since then he has faced some control issues, walking more batters than usual and allowing more runs. In his last start he lasted only 5¹/₃ innings against the Detroit Tigers, allowing 5 earned runs on 5 hits and walking 4 batters. The Twins still won the game 14 to 10, so even if Perkins pitches a poor game the Twins still have a chance with solid hitting on their side. The Twins have struggled a bit in their series against the Yankees, however, even at the the new Yankee Stadium with a .231 batting average and .398 slugging average. Andy Pettite will be pitching for the Yankees and try and keep the Twins from seeing a resurgence of their bats. Pettite has a 4.00 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the season and appears to have regained his form after a rough patch saw him 13 earned runs in 3 games, including 4 home runs to the Tampa Bay Rays over 6 innings against them at Yankee Stadium. In his last start he shut down the Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre, pitching for 6 innings and giving up only 5 hits leading to 1 earned run. He did walk 4 batters while only striking out 2, but the Blue Jays' batters are skilled at taking walks. Minnesota has done well against Pettite in the past, batting .411 and slugging .548 in 73 at bats against the left-hander, so even if Pettite is on his game I expect he will give up a couple of runs in 6 innings. The Yankees have also batted well against Glen Perkins, so even though I expect he will be back in form for this game I think he will also give up a couple of runs. That would lead to another very close game, with the bullpens deciding the game. In terms of strikeouts the Yankees' bullpen is superior, and although the Yankees give up more home runs on average that could be expected for a team playing half of their games at a home run park. The reason I like Minnesota here is that Perkins is more likely to last 7 or even 8 innings and I see the Twins' batters as more likely to get the big hits in this game.

6) The Los Angeles Angels visit the Seattle Mariners after being swept by Texas at Ranger Stadium. The Seattle Mariners are feeling fairly good after taking two of three games against visiting Boston. Los Angeles played well, batting .301, though they had problems getting long hits with their slugging at .408. They simply could not outpace the Rangers' offense, even with Joe Saunders pitching for them. They will start John Lackey for this game in his first real start of the season. He was slated to pitch in the second game of the Rangers series but was ejected after hitting Ian Kinsler with his second pitch thrown. The right hander was a strong pitcher last year, with a 3.75 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through 163¹/₃ innings. There is some talk that the Mariners' right handed heavy batting order suffers against right handed pitchers, though their batting average is unchanged between righties and lefties and their slugging average is only a few points worse. I think the Angels will need a solid six innings out of Lackey as they will be batting against Jarrod Washburn. Washburn has a 3.11 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 7 starts this season and has only had a couple of less than quality starts, including his latest at Rangers Ballpark. Texas got 7 hits off of him leading to 4 earned runs in 6 innings with Washburn walking 4 batters that day. I think he'll settle down against the Angels' bats, give up a long ball or two, but limit their overall hits and allow 3 runs at the very most. If Lackey is fully healthy and in form the Angels could very well win this, but if the Mariners have a lead with the bullpens coming on it will be their game.

7) The New York Mets have been playing well going 7-3 in their last 10 games. They were denied a sweep of the San Francisco Giants last night partially due to the three balks by Mike Pelfrey allowing runners to advance into scoring position. Three balks is a ridiculous number for any pitcher, but the Mets were not hitting well enough off of Cain to have a good chance of picking up the win in any case. During the series they batted .327 and had a .411 slugging average, hitting well even off of Tim Lincecum and all without Jose Reyes or Carlos Delgado. Jose Reyes could make a return tonight but Delgado is expected to remain sidelined. In any case the Mets will have a difficult time against Dodgers starter Randy Wolf. Wolf has a 2.77 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 8 starts this season, with only one mediocre start in his first of the season Wolf has followed with a 2 hit gem against Arizona and 6 straight quality starts. His last 3 starts have seen him allow 10 hits and 3 runs total in 17¹/₃ innings pitched. The Mets' lineup has done well over 238 at bats against Wolf, batting .277 and slugging .441, but with Wolf pitching some of the best ball of his career and the Mets hitting well above average recently I think it's most likely the Mets will see 5 or 6 hits off of Wolf with 1 or 2 runs scored. The Mets will be giving Tim Redding his first major league start tonight after he began the season with a shoulder injury. Redding has been rehabbing with AAA affiliate Buffalo, giving them 13 quality innings so it appears he is fully healthy. Unfortunately for the Mets Redding has been shelled in 58 at bats facing the Dodgers, with L.A., less Manny Ramirez, batting .333 and slugging .725 against him. As long as Wolf retains a modicum of his play from the past three weeks the Dodgers should find themselves with a small lead their bullpen should be able to protect.

May 17th, 2009 Picks

1-0-0 today as I picked up a victory with the Chicago Cubs. I could have added another couple of games to my streak with Fulham, the Rangers, Tigers, Pirates, or Marlins, but there will be plenty of chances in the future. In the Cubs game Randy Wells and Roy Oswalt had a good go at it. Wells got himself into trouble in the 2^nd inning by giving up a single and walking two batters after getting his first two batters faced out with a double play. Fortunately Oswalt was a simple ground out and the game went on 0 to 0. The teams combined for 2 hits until the bottom of the 6^th when Soriano lead off with a single. A couple of sacrifices by Theriot and Fukudome advanced him to third, and a single by Derek Lee brought him home. Hoffpauir followed with a home run to put the Cubs up 3-0. Both pitchers were done after that and it was the Astros bullpen who gave up another run with a couple of walks and an RBI single in the 8^th.

Chicago put in closer Kevin Gregg to protect the four run lead, but he gave up two straight solo home runs to Berkman and Lee and then proceeded to give up two singles and hit the next batter with a pitch to load the bases. Chicago finally had Heilman warmed up but he gave up a two RBI single to tie the game. Heilman got two outs, but ended up walking the bases loaded again. Sean Marshall came in and got the final out of the inning. Fortunately for Chicago Scales walked to lead off the inning, then Miles hit a sacrifice to advance him to second, and Soriano hit the walk-off RBI single to end the game with Chicago up 5 to 4. So on to the picks.

1) Paul Goydos vs. Justin Leonard – Goydos has a lower score through three rounds
2) Lecce @ Bologna – Lecce win or draw
3) Cambridge United vs. Torquay United – Torquay United
4) Zach Johnson or Dustin Johnson vs. Rest Of Field - Zach Johnson or Dustin Johnson
5) Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees – New York
6) Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals – Baltimore
7) Chicago Blackhawks @ Detroit Red Wings – Detroit
8) Aaron Brooks vs. Lamar Odom – Odom pts. and reb.
9) Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres – San Diego
10) Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners – Seattle
11) Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics – Orlando
12) New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants – New York

Analysis
2) U.S. Lecce travel to the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna F.C. in a battle to avoid relegation to Serie B. Each side trail Torino for the last safety position by less than 3 points, so if Torino fail to win at Napoli a win by either team here would raise them clear of relegation. Of course, every match save Internazionale Milan at Siena are being played at 6pm CEST so they will have to play to win and assume Torino will not keep pace. Lecce have not fared well over the years at Bologna, losing three matches there and drawing twice going back 10 years. Goal.com carries an English language preview of the match. They point out that the Rossoblu are carrying a number of injuries, most importantly to Salvatore Lanna in the backfield and Davide Bombardini at midfield. Each of these players have started a majority of Bologna's matches, while the other injury concerns mentioned have started in 10 or fewer matches. The injuries and suspension mentioned for Lecce are not too concerning. Lecce fielded a side without including any of them away at Juventus and came away with a 2-2 draw. SkyBet carries odds on this game with Bologna to win at 4/5 (-125, 50.6%), Lecce to win at 10/3 (+333, 21.0%), and the draw at 11/5 (+220, 28.4%). Based on their goals scored and allowed I think Lecce is being greatly undervalued here, with the draw and Bologna winning being overvalued at their expense. With both sides fighting to save their seasons I think the defenses will be better than they have been, but not good enough for a clean sheet leading to a 1-1 draw in this match.

3) It's the Blue Square Premier promotion playoff final at Wembley stadium. The winner of this one-off will be promoted to the League Two of the Football Association, a major accomplishment for both of these clubs. Prior to losing 1-3 away at Stevenage Borough in the first leg of their semi-final tie Cambridge United had gone undefeated for 4 matches. That was their last regular season loss and it was also away at Stevenage. The U's still earned a trip to Wembley with a 3-0 home win in the 2nd leg of their tie. Torquay United had gone undefeated for 5 matches, including 3 draws and a 2-1 defeat of of league leaders Burton Albion, before losing 0-1 away at Histon. It was a solid enough defensive effort to win the semi-final 2-1 in aggregate as they had already defeated Histon 2-0 in the first leg. During the season Torquay United went undefeated against Cambridge, winning 1-0 away and drawing 0-0 at home. This is not a home match for either squad, though Cambridge is about 140 miles closer to London than Torquay. Torquay were 12-7-4 (W-D-L) away this season with 34 GS and 24 GA while Cambridge were 10-8-5 away with 31 GS and 24 GA. Both sides are healthy and essentially at full-strength, though both carry concerns with their first string keepers. Torquay United's Bevan is rated as 50/50 so they may play his replacement, Michael Poke. Poke has figured in their last 3 matches, conceding only 2 goals, and started in their impressive win over Burton Albion. Rumors have been ignited about the fitness of Cambridge United keeper Danny Potter with the emergency signing of Kidderminster Harrier's keeper Adam Bartlett. Adam Bartlett is considered a very good goalie, having played for England's national team on the 'C' squad. Cambridge United themselves are claiming he is only experienced cover for Potter should he be injured during the final. As always BBC and Setanta Sports have nice previews of the match. They mention that Gulls forward Blair Sturrock has picked up a knock in the tie against Histon. Torquay United will be able to select from strength in selecting his replacement to pair with Sills on the attack. The Cambridge News note that have many players on their squad have played at Wembley last year. In contrast, Torquay United is full of footballers who played in last years Blue Square Premier promotion semi-final, but did not advance past Exeter City to play at Wembley. SkyBet has the match exactly even with either side to win at 6/4 and draw at 9/4, but I think Torquay will be able to pull off a 1-0 win much as they did back in September at Cambridge.

6) The Baltimore Orioles are hoping to win back to back games on the road for only the second time this season when they face the Kansas City Royals. The Orioles will have Koji Uehara pitching for them, a 31 year old veteran of the Nippon Professional Baseball league, has been very good this season posting a 4.01 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. His last outing was a 6 inning, 6 hit, 1 earned run domination of the New York Yankees, though the Orioles lost the game 5-3. Uehara has a good sense of the strike zone, striking out over four times as many batters as he walks, but has difficulty keeping the ball low evidenced by his low ground ball to fly ball ratio. Kansas City will counter with Luke Hochevar, who had a complete nightmare of a first start by pitching 2 innings and allowing 8 earned runs on 7 hits. His ERA is 36.00 from that game and his WHIP is 4.50, but I am sure those numbers will go way down after this game. Last season he had a 5.51 ERA through 129 innings, so while he has been mediocre at best he is not prone to giving up more than 1 run per inning. Kansas City has been batting above average in their last three games with a .304 batting average and a .471 slugging average. Baltimore has been below average with a .262 batting average and .383 slugging average. I think Uehara will assist Kansas City in their natural return to the norm and as the Royals are not a power hitting team particularly his low ground ball production will not be too detrimental. Baltimore should also have a bit of a breakout game, with at least their batting average improving against Hochevar. The Orioles will need to have a lead through 6 innings to have a good chance of winning here, however, as the Royals' bullpen has been fairly impressive so far this season.8) It's Game 7 of the quarterfinal series between the Houston Rockets and the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers were up 2 games to 1 when it was revealed that Yao Ming had broken his foot and would be out for the remainder of the playoffs. Since then the Rockets have won two games in Houston in a blowout and a near blowout and the Lakers won Game 5 in L.A. in a 40 point blowout. Not surprisingly, the team who has won in a blowout has had the players racking up the points, assists, and rebounds. In this game Lamar Odom is expected to be the starter to help defensively against a Rockets team that is smaller and quicker without Yao Ming in the lineup. Looking at the graphs above it's clear that Odom has averaged more points and rebounds at home than Brooks has averaged points and assists on the road, with Odom averaging 19.1 to 16.0 for Brooks. In L.A. the story is a bit different with Brooks averaging 17.4 points and assists, and Odom averaging only 15.8 points and rebounds against the Rockets. As both players started the season on the bench and earned starting roles due to trade or injury I think these averages are still reflective of their relative production. Aaron Brooks, being one of the fastest players on the Rockets, has become one of the focal points of their offense so his production can be expected to go up. Lamar Odom's role remains unchanged. Essentially Brooks does have the better chance of winning this prop in any given game, but this is Game 7 of a playoff series. I expect the Lakers to step up their defense and make things hard for Brooks and the rest of the Rockets team leading to fewer points and assists for Brooks. The key is for Odom to be effective while he is on the court. He will be sharing minutes with Andrew Bynum and if Odom is not effective and Bynum is then Odom will lose some minutes in this game. I don't see Bynum stepping up his game suddenly with the pressure higher than it's ever been since he's such a young player and think Odom will be a major part of a Lakers blowout.

9) The Cincinnati Reds try to avoid being swept on the road in their series with the San Diego Padres, but the presence of Jake Peavy on the mound for San Diego won't make the job any easier. Peavy has a 4.30 ERA and 1.22 WHIP so far this season after a little rough patch a few weeks ago against the Pirates and the Giants. Since then he has been magnificent, including this 2 hit gem against the Dodgers, pitching for 21 innings in 3 starts and giving up 5 earned runs from 12 hits while striking out 29 batters and walking only 6. Cincinnati has been batting .220 and slugging .378 in their last three games, including the 16 inning marathon last night, and I don't see it getting any easier for them in this game. The Padres have also had their struggles at the plate, batting .197 and slugging .393, meaning that while they have not gotten many hits they have had more power behind those hits. They will face off against Bronson Arroyo in this game. Arroyo has struggled this season with a 7.02 ERA and 1.61 WHIP through 7 starts. In his last start, against Arizona, he pitched for 7 innings and gave up 5 runs on 10 hits which isn't too shabby, especially when you receive 13 runs of support from your batters. I think Arroyo could fairly be expected to give up 4 or 5 runs in this game, but with Peavy pitching for the Padres it could very well prove to be too much. With either team potentially being forced to delve deep into their bullpens after the extra innings last night, however, it could end up being anybody's game with big runs being scored late.

12) The New York Mets will be trying to complete a 4 game sweep of the San Francisco Giants today. Both teams have been hitting well, but the Mets have just gotten so many more hits, especially against the Giants' bullpen. New York is batting .359 and slugging .436 in the series against San Francisco while the Giants are doing great with a batting average of .309 and slugging average of .473. Those extra bases the Giants are getting would normally be enough, but it's difficult to overcome a team getting hits nearly 40% of their at bats. The Giants will try to contain New York with Matt Cain, a 3.00 ERA and 1.36 WHIP pitcher this season. The Mets will have Mike Pelfrey pitching for them who has a 4.89 ERA and 1.57 WHIP through 6 starts. Pelfrey is coming off of one of his better outings of the season, a 7 inning, 6 hit, 2 earned run game against the Atlanta Braves. A more likely game for Pelfrey is to pitch 5 or 6 innings while giving up 3 to 5 runs as he is not too economical with his pitches. One advantage Pelfrey has over Cain is his ground ball to fly ball ratio, which is more than double Cain's. With so many ground balls being hit off Pelfrey it's not surprise the Giants' current batting order has never hit more than a single off of Pelfrey. In 94 at bats the Mets are slugging .468 off of Cain, so I think he may give up some RBI doubles to the Mets. The Giants will continue to hit above average against Pelfrey, but they will struggle to get the long hits scoring multiple runs at a time. Pelfrey will still give up at lest 3 runs and so the Mets will need to provide some run support. They will just have to hope they can do better than Diamondbacks in this game, which Cain dominated. If the Mets can get some doubles and a home run off of Cain they should win. Even if Cain shuts down the Mets, as long as they are able to face the Giants' bullpen for a few innings their chances of winning remain large.