click it
0-1-1 today. Yes, 0-1-1. I avoided picking Safin, the White Sox game was postponed due to rain and I avoided picking Bayern Munich. My next pick was for the Islanders/Avalanche/Thrashers to win the #1 draft pick in the NHL draft lottery. I switched my pick just before 6pm to the 76ers. Oh man, what a mistake. On the up side the very fact that I avoided picking the morning games meant I only lost a 3 game streak with that pick rather than a 5 game streak. The down side is that I could easily have built my streak up to 7 today.
The Sixers played like a team that did not belong in the playoffs. Boston’s offense was fluid with players moving from side-to-side on the court, setting screens to one another, and moving the ball around through crisp passing rather than dribbling. That is the kind of offense that leads to easy baskets for wide open men. The Sixers’ tended to stand around on the offensive end and wait for the ball to be passed to them before they began to move around. Most of their offense was created in one-on-one situations, with players creating their own shot.
At the end of the half the Celtics appeared to lose interest in the game and began to give up a wide variety of wide open slam dunks and fast break points off of turnovers. The Sixers took a 58-50 lead into the half and maintained a 5 point lead through the third quarter. Paul Pierce did a terrific job keeping Boston in the game as he went 7 for 9 from the three point line. Boston erased their deficit and took a lead early in the 4th quarter as Philadelphia went over the foul limit with 9 minutes remaining. The game was close down the stretch and with 19 seconds to go Philadelphia got possession of the ball and down a point. Miller inbounded the ball to Iguodala who dribbled the clock down to 5 seconds before attempting a drive to the hoop which Pierce and Marbury headed off. Iguodala ended up lobbing up a one handed fall away shot while moving to his left which missed and the Celtics held on to win 100-98. So away from this and on to the next. Day of picks.
1) Marat Safin vs. Nicolas Lapentti – 20 games or more
2) Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals – Cleveland
3) Manchester United @ FC Porto – FC Porto win or draw
4) Villarreal @ Arsenal – 2 goals or fewer
5) St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Arizona
6) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays – New York
7) Washington Capitals win margin vs. Pittsburgh Penguins win margin – Pittsburgh
8) Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks – Houston
9) Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers – Baltimore
10) St. Louis Blues vs. Vancouver Canucks – 5 goals or fewer
11) Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners – Los Angeles
12) Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trailblazers – Portland
20+ for the morning, with an L1 streak what have I got to lose?
Analysis
1) Marat Safin is ranked #21 in the world right now on the ATP Tour. He has not won a single match in 2009 in under 20 games as of yet. He always could pick up his first such match tomorrow against Lapentti. Nicolas Lapentti is currently ranked #98 in the world. He has lost in straight sets and in 19 games or fewer to players lower ranked than himself in 2009 (#142 Mikhail Kukushkin for one). He has also won matches against players ranked higher than Safin in 20 games or more; his round of 64 match against #15 Radek Stepanik which he won on Monday is a good example. In the end if one of these players is having a bad day on the court and the other is in the zone it could easily go over, but I like that Lapentti is playing well in this tournament.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Currently Kansas City is favored at -115 with the odds on Cleveland being +105, which is pretty close. Sidney Ponson is starting for the Royals in this game. Last year he averaged fewer than one strikeout every 2 innings pitched and had a strikeout to walk ratio of 1.2. The Indians’ rotation has taken 49 turns at the bat against Ponson and hit 3 home runs, 3 doubles, and 15 singles while batting in 16 runs. In his first start of the season Ponson gave up 4 runs in 6 innings pitched. Aaron Laffey will be pitching for the Indians and he turns 24 today. Against the Royals’ batters he has given up 2 doubles, 12 singles and 3 RBIs in 64 at bats while striking out 11 batters and walking only 6. His strikeout to walk ratio was only 1.4 last year while having a 4.23 ERA. Not a terrific pitcher but if Cleveland can break out of their hitting slump and score runs against a pitcher they have had success against previously they should have the advantage.
Confidence: W2 streak
3) Manchester United is a terrific side and they will be returning Rio Ferdinand in the back field to pair with Nemanja Vidic on defense. They have not played many games with both players starting in the past month or so and in that time their form has dipped considerably. A 17’ sending off of Paul Scholes led to a 0-2 defeat at Fulham and they have had to rely on late game winners from 17 year old Federico Macheda to win their last two Premier League matches. Adding Ferdinand to the mix will help but it will be difficult for them to transform themselves into the side they will need to be to win this match overnight. FC Porto head the Portuguese Liga and have not lost at home in that league except for once to Leixoes when they had a reserve keeper in the net. FC Porto have never lost to an English team at home in their history as a football club. Manchester United will be looking to equalize the away goal count with at least 2 and will be playing to win but FC Porto knows they only have to outscore Manchester United by one goal to advance to the semi-finals.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) Evan Longoria will be missing the game tonight for the Rays to attend to some personal matters. The lines opened very close on this game with some books having the matchup at even odds while others had Tampa Bay at -110 and New York at +100. The starting pitchers will be two Andys, Pettite for the Yankees and Sonnanstine for the Rays. They have each started one game so far this season. Sonnanstine recorded a 12.60 ERA in a loss and Pettite had a 1.96 ERA in a win. Historically Pettite has done better against the Rays’ batters than Sonnanstine. Pettite has given up 3 home runs and 16 RBIs in 174 at bats for the Rays while Sonnanstine has been homered 4 times along with 10 runs being batted in in 86 at bats for the Yankees. Pettite gives up more hits on average than Sonnanstine does. Sonnanstine gives up 0.465 total bases per at bat compared to 0.379 total bases per at bat for Pettite. Last year Sonnanstine had a 10.61 ERA against the Yankees with a record of 1-0 and Pettite had a 4.13 ERA against the Rays with a record of 2-2.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
8) Houston is playing to win the Southwest Division title over the San Antonio Spurs, something they have not done in a long time. Dallas will want to end the season on a winning note and possibly move into the 6 seed which would give them home court in the second round of the playoffs should the Hornets win their series in the first round. Houston and Dallas have played once this season since McGrady was injured and Alston was traded. The game was played in Houston and the Rockets won 93-86. Dallas is playing great basketball right now with the return of Josh Howard revitalizing them. I don’t see either team resting players a great deal, though Jason Kidd may see some of his minutes given to J.J. Barea. Barea is not much of a drop off except in the rebounding department as he is a remarkably good defender for someone his size. If Yao Ming can have a dominating performance and Battier, Brooks, and Artest are making a decent number of their attempts the Rockets have a terrific chance to take this game on the road against their possible first round opponent.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Mark Hendrickson has had a good start to his season pitching a 1.69 ERA in a win in his first start this season. Last April he was pretty good to, going 4-0 with an overall ERA of 2.56. Benson had a 12.60 ERA in his first start of the season this year in a loss. The Orioles have had 49 at bats against Benson had gotten 17 hits and 5 RBI’s against him. In 42 at bats against Hendrickson the Rangers have had only 11 hits, but 6 of those were doubles and they batted in 5 runs. So the Rangers’ Hendrickson gives up more hits to the Orioles on average, but Benson is giving up just as many runs. Neither pitcher had any experience against their opposition last season. I like the Orioles to win this based on Benson having a poor first start and Hendrickson playing well and doing well in April overall. The lines on this game opened up with Texas as the slightest of favorites, but more or less even odds.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
12) Bettors really love Portland at home in this game. A typical money line in Vegas has Portland as the favorite at -320 and Denver as the underdog at +250. The spread is 7.0 points in favor of Portland. Both teams may or may not rest players, but it hardly matters as each team have deep benches with players who have been major contributors in their wins this season. Denver is playing well right now but Portland is playing their best basketball of the season lately. Home court, bench play, and recent form favor Portland in my opinion.
Confidence: W8 streak or less
And So It Goes....
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
April 14th, 2009 Picks
A terrific turnaround as I divorced myself from the past two days to go 3-0-0. My first pick was Ipswich Town to win or draw. The first half ended in a 0-0 scoreless draw but Bristol City midfielder Marvin Elliott received an excellent through ball from Michael McIndoe 6 yards from the goal and booted a goal home. Ipswich Town were completely unable to muster up any offense for most of the game until the striker Giovanni was substituted into the game. Ipswich Town were still unable to find the goal as the match entered injury time, but just before the whistle Bristol City committed a penalty. Giovanni converted the penalty kick and the match ended with Ipswich receiving a miracle point in a 1-1 draw.
My second pick was the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox went up early in the 2nd inning with back to back homers by Dye and Konerko to lead off. The Tigers gained a run back in the bottom of the inning but Quentin, Konerko, and Ramirez batted in four runs in the third inning. The Tigers gained back three runs on a home run by Santiago in the bottom of that inning. The White Sox had an answer again in the fourth inning when Quentin hit a two run homer. The Tigers kept clawing back but the theme of the game was the White Sox scoring after every inning in which the Tigers scored. Quentin and Konerko led the Sox with 4 RBI’s apiece and the White Sox won 10-6.
My third pick was the Milwaukee Bucks. When I originally posted my blog I was under the impression Dwight Howard would be playing limited minutes so when Stan Van Gundy revealed Howard would not dress for the game I locked in the pick. The Magic had a 6 point lead after the first quarter but from there the Bucks grabbed the lead and slowly extended it throughout the game. The Bucks had 25 assists on 35 field goals made while the Magic had 13 assists on 25 field goals. The Bucks also went 8 for 21 from three point range while the Magic went 2 for 18. Marcin Gortat had 10 points and 18 rebounds for the Magic in 43 minutes of playing time. So on to the picks of another day.
1) Marat Safin vs. Lleyton Hewitt – Safin has more aces
2) Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers – Chicago
3) Barcelona @ Bayern Munich – Bayern Munich win or draw
4) Liverpool @ Chelsea – 2 goals or fewer
5) Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners – Los Angeles
6) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays – Tampa Bay
7) Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers – Philadelphia
8) New York, Atlanta, Colorado vs. Any Other Team – NY, ATL, COL win the lottery
9)) Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers – Cincinnati
10) Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers – 11 runs or more
11) Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics – Jack Cust records more total bases
Analysis
1) Marat Safin generally has a stronger serve averaging 0.758 aces per service game played in 2009. Lleyton Hewitt averages 0.489 aces per service game this year. The match today will be played on a clay surface where fewer aces are generally served. Hewitt and Safin have played twice before on a clay surface, once in 2002 and once in 2001. In 2001 Hewitt had 3 aces to 2 for Safin in their match, while Safin out-aced Hewitt 5-1 in their 2002 match. Safin has generally out-aced Hewitt by large margins in their other matches. Hewitt just finished winning a clay court tournament in Houston on Sunday before traveling to Monaco for this event. Safin is taller and has a greater reach so he may be able to get his racket on the serve even if he does not return it, limiting the number of aces for Hewitt. Here are the ATP Tour profiles and statistics for these two. Peruse at your leisure.
Hewitt's stats.
Safin's stats.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Chicago is the favorite here at -120 with Detroit an underdog at home at +110. The run line favors Detroit at -155 to +135 for Chicago. That puts the chances of a Chicago win by 1 run at 12.2% which is more than reasonable when overall 15% of a teams games are wins by 1 run. John Danks has had a good start with 5 scoreless innings pitched so far this year. Last year he had a great start in April as well but for a shelling at the hands of the Twins. This is Rick Porcello’s second major league start where he has an ERA of 7.20 in five innings against Toronto so far. Against the Tigers’ batters Danks has 8 times as many strikeouts as walks in 106 at bats. He has given up only 2 home runs, or one in 53 batters faced. He had a 2-0 record and 2.41 ERA against Detroit last season.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
3) FC Barcelona dominated Bayern Munich for 45 minutes in taking a 4-0 lead into the half of their first draw in Barcelona. Both sides adjusted their game at the half and the second half ended with the score 4-0. That is evidence of the kind of game Barcelona will play with a 4 goal lead. Bayern Munich return Phillip Lahm, Lucio and possibly Daniel van Buyton, all crucial to their defense. FC Barcelona will be missing Thierry Henry unless the fever keeping him out of practice the day before abates quickly. Barcelona will also be missing Rafael Márquez after he picked up his fifth yellow card in competition. Messi, Eto’o, Xavi, Puyol, and Toure were all rested in their domestic match against Recreativo Huelva so they could all be fairly expected to start in this match. Even with them starting I see Barcelona being unable to match the focus and intensity of a Bayern side playing at home and looking to erase any trace of that 4-0 1st half drubbing.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
7) Currently Philadelphia are a 5.5 point favorite with the money lines having them a favorite at anywhere from -220 to -270. Everybody is working with the assumption Doc Rivers will limit the minutes of Allen, Pierce, and Rondo or perhaps not play them at all. At -200 bettors were picking Philadelphia overwhelmingly. One casino put Philadelphia at -280 and a flood of money poured in on Boston to win with the profit greater than 3:1 for a Celtics win. Four minutes later they adjusted it to -270 for the Sixers. I’ll wait until the pre-game press conference before picking for sure. The Celtics will undoubtedly end up facing the Sixers in the first round of the playoffs and after being completely non-competitive with Cleveland on Sunday may be looking to prove they can win. Watch out if Pierce, Rondo, and Allen end up playing major minutes.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
8) New York, Atlanta, and Colorado have combined odds of 49.9% of being selected to receive the #1 draft pick. NHL rules stipulate a team may only move up 4 spots in the draft from their regular season finish. That means the Los Angeles Kings and Tampa Bay Lightning are the only ‘other teams’ who can possibly get the #1 pick. Their odds of winning are a combined 27.7% chance. At 72.3% the odds of winning this are nearly as good as a -275 money line pick, but do you want to risk your streak on a truly random event?
UPDATE: The wording of the prop has been ‘fixed’ so that it is who will win the lottery meaning the odds are back to 49.9% for ATL, COL, NYI.
UPDATE2: The wording on the prop has been changed back to “who will win the #1 pick” giving you a 73% chance of winning with ATL, COL, and NYI. Be careful as they’ve changed to wording on this back and forth more than once now.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Milwaukee is favored to win at -135 and Cincinnati is the underdog at +120. Cincinnati is favored in the run line at -175 to +155 for Milwaukee. That puts the odds on a win by 1 run for Milwaukee at 17.7% which is a bit high and favors a win by Cincinnati. Milwaukee is starting Manny Parra who has not done well against the Reds. Cincinnati is hitting a home run for every 13 batters facing Parra. Parra had an 8.27 ERA against the Reds last season and has started this season with a poor outing against San Francisco. Bronson Arroyo has a large amount of experience against the Brewers with a home run rate about half of Parra’s against the Reds. Arroyo had a 3.65 ERA against the Brewers last season, but gave up 5 runs in 6 innings against the Mets in his first start of the season. Both pitchers are capable of throwing strikes, Arroyo struck out 3 times as many batters as he walked last season and Parra struck out twice as many.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
11) Jack Cust has recorded 6 total bases in 8 at bats against Daisuke Matsuzaka with a home run and two singles. David Ortiz has recorded 1 total base in 2 at bats against Eveland. So far this year Ortiz is batting .208, recording 5 total bases in 24 at bats. Jack Cust is batting .381 with 15 total bases recorded in 21 at bats. Matsuzaka has an ERA of 6.50 in one start this season against Tampa Bay and Eveland has an ERA of 4.50 in his sole start against the Angels.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
My second pick was the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox went up early in the 2nd inning with back to back homers by Dye and Konerko to lead off. The Tigers gained a run back in the bottom of the inning but Quentin, Konerko, and Ramirez batted in four runs in the third inning. The Tigers gained back three runs on a home run by Santiago in the bottom of that inning. The White Sox had an answer again in the fourth inning when Quentin hit a two run homer. The Tigers kept clawing back but the theme of the game was the White Sox scoring after every inning in which the Tigers scored. Quentin and Konerko led the Sox with 4 RBI’s apiece and the White Sox won 10-6.
My third pick was the Milwaukee Bucks. When I originally posted my blog I was under the impression Dwight Howard would be playing limited minutes so when Stan Van Gundy revealed Howard would not dress for the game I locked in the pick. The Magic had a 6 point lead after the first quarter but from there the Bucks grabbed the lead and slowly extended it throughout the game. The Bucks had 25 assists on 35 field goals made while the Magic had 13 assists on 25 field goals. The Bucks also went 8 for 21 from three point range while the Magic went 2 for 18. Marcin Gortat had 10 points and 18 rebounds for the Magic in 43 minutes of playing time. So on to the picks of another day.
1) Marat Safin vs. Lleyton Hewitt – Safin has more aces
2) Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers – Chicago
3) Barcelona @ Bayern Munich – Bayern Munich win or draw
4) Liverpool @ Chelsea – 2 goals or fewer
5) Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners – Los Angeles
6) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays – Tampa Bay
7) Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers – Philadelphia
8) New York, Atlanta, Colorado vs. Any Other Team – NY, ATL, COL win the lottery
9)) Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers – Cincinnati
10) Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers – 11 runs or more
11) Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics – Jack Cust records more total bases
Analysis
1) Marat Safin generally has a stronger serve averaging 0.758 aces per service game played in 2009. Lleyton Hewitt averages 0.489 aces per service game this year. The match today will be played on a clay surface where fewer aces are generally served. Hewitt and Safin have played twice before on a clay surface, once in 2002 and once in 2001. In 2001 Hewitt had 3 aces to 2 for Safin in their match, while Safin out-aced Hewitt 5-1 in their 2002 match. Safin has generally out-aced Hewitt by large margins in their other matches. Hewitt just finished winning a clay court tournament in Houston on Sunday before traveling to Monaco for this event. Safin is taller and has a greater reach so he may be able to get his racket on the serve even if he does not return it, limiting the number of aces for Hewitt. Here are the ATP Tour profiles and statistics for these two. Peruse at your leisure.
Hewitt's stats.
Safin's stats.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Chicago is the favorite here at -120 with Detroit an underdog at home at +110. The run line favors Detroit at -155 to +135 for Chicago. That puts the chances of a Chicago win by 1 run at 12.2% which is more than reasonable when overall 15% of a teams games are wins by 1 run. John Danks has had a good start with 5 scoreless innings pitched so far this year. Last year he had a great start in April as well but for a shelling at the hands of the Twins. This is Rick Porcello’s second major league start where he has an ERA of 7.20 in five innings against Toronto so far. Against the Tigers’ batters Danks has 8 times as many strikeouts as walks in 106 at bats. He has given up only 2 home runs, or one in 53 batters faced. He had a 2-0 record and 2.41 ERA against Detroit last season.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
3) FC Barcelona dominated Bayern Munich for 45 minutes in taking a 4-0 lead into the half of their first draw in Barcelona. Both sides adjusted their game at the half and the second half ended with the score 4-0. That is evidence of the kind of game Barcelona will play with a 4 goal lead. Bayern Munich return Phillip Lahm, Lucio and possibly Daniel van Buyton, all crucial to their defense. FC Barcelona will be missing Thierry Henry unless the fever keeping him out of practice the day before abates quickly. Barcelona will also be missing Rafael Márquez after he picked up his fifth yellow card in competition. Messi, Eto’o, Xavi, Puyol, and Toure were all rested in their domestic match against Recreativo Huelva so they could all be fairly expected to start in this match. Even with them starting I see Barcelona being unable to match the focus and intensity of a Bayern side playing at home and looking to erase any trace of that 4-0 1st half drubbing.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
7) Currently Philadelphia are a 5.5 point favorite with the money lines having them a favorite at anywhere from -220 to -270. Everybody is working with the assumption Doc Rivers will limit the minutes of Allen, Pierce, and Rondo or perhaps not play them at all. At -200 bettors were picking Philadelphia overwhelmingly. One casino put Philadelphia at -280 and a flood of money poured in on Boston to win with the profit greater than 3:1 for a Celtics win. Four minutes later they adjusted it to -270 for the Sixers. I’ll wait until the pre-game press conference before picking for sure. The Celtics will undoubtedly end up facing the Sixers in the first round of the playoffs and after being completely non-competitive with Cleveland on Sunday may be looking to prove they can win. Watch out if Pierce, Rondo, and Allen end up playing major minutes.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
8) New York, Atlanta, and Colorado have combined odds of 49.9% of being selected to receive the #1 draft pick. NHL rules stipulate a team may only move up 4 spots in the draft from their regular season finish. That means the Los Angeles Kings and Tampa Bay Lightning are the only ‘other teams’ who can possibly get the #1 pick. Their odds of winning are a combined 27.7% chance. At 72.3% the odds of winning this are nearly as good as a -275 money line pick, but do you want to risk your streak on a truly random event?
UPDATE: The wording of the prop has been ‘fixed’ so that it is who will win the lottery meaning the odds are back to 49.9% for ATL, COL, NYI.
UPDATE2: The wording on the prop has been changed back to “who will win the #1 pick” giving you a 73% chance of winning with ATL, COL, and NYI. Be careful as they’ve changed to wording on this back and forth more than once now.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Milwaukee is favored to win at -135 and Cincinnati is the underdog at +120. Cincinnati is favored in the run line at -175 to +155 for Milwaukee. That puts the odds on a win by 1 run for Milwaukee at 17.7% which is a bit high and favors a win by Cincinnati. Milwaukee is starting Manny Parra who has not done well against the Reds. Cincinnati is hitting a home run for every 13 batters facing Parra. Parra had an 8.27 ERA against the Reds last season and has started this season with a poor outing against San Francisco. Bronson Arroyo has a large amount of experience against the Brewers with a home run rate about half of Parra’s against the Reds. Arroyo had a 3.65 ERA against the Brewers last season, but gave up 5 runs in 6 innings against the Mets in his first start of the season. Both pitchers are capable of throwing strikes, Arroyo struck out 3 times as many batters as he walked last season and Parra struck out twice as many.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
11) Jack Cust has recorded 6 total bases in 8 at bats against Daisuke Matsuzaka with a home run and two singles. David Ortiz has recorded 1 total base in 2 at bats against Eveland. So far this year Ortiz is batting .208, recording 5 total bases in 24 at bats. Jack Cust is batting .381 with 15 total bases recorded in 21 at bats. Matsuzaka has an ERA of 6.50 in one start this season against Tampa Bay and Eveland has an ERA of 4.50 in his sole start against the Angels.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
Monday, April 13, 2009
April 13th, 2009 Picks
0-2-1 today which is pretty terrible in my opinion when I had winners picked in my blog in 3 of the 4 time windows for the day. My first pick was Kevin Sutherland to card a lower front 9 score. Sutherland started his round off with a bogey to go behind Weir by a stroke but he promptly gained it back with a birdie on the second hole. The two remained all square until Sutherland lost another stroke with a bogey on the fifth hole. Weir birdied the par 3 sixth hole to take a two stroke lead with three holes remaining. Weir gave back a stroke on the next hole, a par 5, with a bogey. Sutherland was down a stroke on the last hole but managed to save a push with a birdie. Rory McIlroy was the only other golfer of the 50 competing to score a birdie on #9.
My next pick was Nick Watney to card a lower front 9. Watney and Ames each hit par for the course except for a birdie on #2 to put things all square through four holes. Ames hit a bogey on the par 4 fifth hole to go down a stroke. Watney kept that one stroke lead for one more hole until he put in one the worst finishes at Augusta on the front 9. Watney gave back his lead with a bogey on the seventh hole, went down a stroke with a bogey on the next hole and failed to save a push when Ames bogeyed the ninth hole when he bogeyed it himself. Watney was the only player to card three consecutive holes over par in the final round and only the third to do so after the cut.
My third and final pick was the Philadelphia Flyers. Henrik Lundqvist was a late decision to start with most sources stating Tellqvist would start as goalie. The Flyers still struck quickly scoring a goal in their first three shots. A puck over the glass penalty gave the Rangers a power play which they converted at the end. The Flyers converted their first power play but made one of the more dreaded mistakes when they not only failed to convert their next power play and gave up a short handed goal. The Flyers took an early lead in the second period but were unable to hold on as the Rangers scored two of their own in the first half of the final period. The Flyers ended up losing 4-3.
Other notable events: Johan Santana losing his first game started since last June despite recording a 0.00 ERA, and Kenny Perry bogeying the final two holes at the Masters to set up a playoff which Angel Cabrera won. And now on to the picks.
1) Ipswich Town @ Bristol City – Ipswich Town win or draw
2) Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers – Chicago
3) Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals – Philadelphia
4) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays – New York
5) San Diego Padres @ New York Mets – New York
6) Orlando Magic @ Milwaukee Bucks – Milwaukee
7) St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks – St. Louis
Analysis
1) Wow, I just completely forgot to write something about this last night but with English Championship League soccer who really cares right? Ipswich and Bristol are 3 points removed in the tables. Ipswich have more away wins (8) than Bristol have home wins (7). Bristol are missing three key starting defenders. I generally say do not pick against the win/draw option unless the team with the win option is far far ahead in the standings.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) The Detroit Tigers are -120 favorites but the White Sox are only +110 underdogs. Road dogs have been doing fairly well so far in this young season, especially when they are heavy favorites to cover a 1.5 run spread. In this case Chicago is favored to cover at -180 to +160 for Detroit. Zach Miner had a 9.00 ERA last April and walked nearly as many batters as he struck out. He gives up hits and home runs at slightly higher rates to the White Sox batters than Gavin Floyd does to the Tigers’ batters. Gavin Floyd had a 3.16 ERA last April and a 3.68 ERA against Detroit. He has struck out three times as many of Detroit’s batters as he has walked.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
5) The Mets are -200 favorites in many casinos this morning and are even odds to cover the spread of 1.5 runs. Silva is new to the league this year and in his first game had only one strikeout compared to four walks, but gave up more than a few grounders leading to two double plays. Pelfrey had a strong finish to the season in 2008 but April has been one of his weaker months. His ERA against the Padres in 122/3 innings is 2.13 but the Padres have gotten 11 hits, including two home runs, in 31 at bats against Pelfrey.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) Orlando is without Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu for tonight’s game and Stan Van Gundy has been reported as saying he’ll be looking to limit Dwight Howard’s minutes with the season coming to an end and no chance for Orlando to move up or down in the seeding. Look for Marcin Gortat to pick up those minutes and for a slew of other players to get their first meaningful minutes of the season. Vegas casinos are not putting lines out on the NBA at this point in the season but the online oddsmakers have Milwaukee winning by anywhere from 3.5 to 5.5 points.
UPDATE: Vegas has opened books for this game with the spread at 3.5 points favoring Milwaukee
Confidence: W1 streak or less
My next pick was Nick Watney to card a lower front 9. Watney and Ames each hit par for the course except for a birdie on #2 to put things all square through four holes. Ames hit a bogey on the par 4 fifth hole to go down a stroke. Watney kept that one stroke lead for one more hole until he put in one the worst finishes at Augusta on the front 9. Watney gave back his lead with a bogey on the seventh hole, went down a stroke with a bogey on the next hole and failed to save a push when Ames bogeyed the ninth hole when he bogeyed it himself. Watney was the only player to card three consecutive holes over par in the final round and only the third to do so after the cut.
My third and final pick was the Philadelphia Flyers. Henrik Lundqvist was a late decision to start with most sources stating Tellqvist would start as goalie. The Flyers still struck quickly scoring a goal in their first three shots. A puck over the glass penalty gave the Rangers a power play which they converted at the end. The Flyers converted their first power play but made one of the more dreaded mistakes when they not only failed to convert their next power play and gave up a short handed goal. The Flyers took an early lead in the second period but were unable to hold on as the Rangers scored two of their own in the first half of the final period. The Flyers ended up losing 4-3.
Other notable events: Johan Santana losing his first game started since last June despite recording a 0.00 ERA, and Kenny Perry bogeying the final two holes at the Masters to set up a playoff which Angel Cabrera won. And now on to the picks.
1) Ipswich Town @ Bristol City – Ipswich Town win or draw
2) Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers – Chicago
3) Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals – Philadelphia
4) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays – New York
5) San Diego Padres @ New York Mets – New York
6) Orlando Magic @ Milwaukee Bucks – Milwaukee
7) St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks – St. Louis
Analysis
1) Wow, I just completely forgot to write something about this last night but with English Championship League soccer who really cares right? Ipswich and Bristol are 3 points removed in the tables. Ipswich have more away wins (8) than Bristol have home wins (7). Bristol are missing three key starting defenders. I generally say do not pick against the win/draw option unless the team with the win option is far far ahead in the standings.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) The Detroit Tigers are -120 favorites but the White Sox are only +110 underdogs. Road dogs have been doing fairly well so far in this young season, especially when they are heavy favorites to cover a 1.5 run spread. In this case Chicago is favored to cover at -180 to +160 for Detroit. Zach Miner had a 9.00 ERA last April and walked nearly as many batters as he struck out. He gives up hits and home runs at slightly higher rates to the White Sox batters than Gavin Floyd does to the Tigers’ batters. Gavin Floyd had a 3.16 ERA last April and a 3.68 ERA against Detroit. He has struck out three times as many of Detroit’s batters as he has walked.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
5) The Mets are -200 favorites in many casinos this morning and are even odds to cover the spread of 1.5 runs. Silva is new to the league this year and in his first game had only one strikeout compared to four walks, but gave up more than a few grounders leading to two double plays. Pelfrey had a strong finish to the season in 2008 but April has been one of his weaker months. His ERA against the Padres in 122/3 innings is 2.13 but the Padres have gotten 11 hits, including two home runs, in 31 at bats against Pelfrey.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) Orlando is without Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu for tonight’s game and Stan Van Gundy has been reported as saying he’ll be looking to limit Dwight Howard’s minutes with the season coming to an end and no chance for Orlando to move up or down in the seeding. Look for Marcin Gortat to pick up those minutes and for a slew of other players to get their first meaningful minutes of the season. Vegas casinos are not putting lines out on the NBA at this point in the season but the online oddsmakers have Milwaukee winning by anywhere from 3.5 to 5.5 points.
UPDATE: Vegas has opened books for this game with the spread at 3.5 points favoring Milwaukee
Confidence: W1 streak or less
Sunday, April 12, 2009
April 12th, 2009 Picks
A very disappointing 1-2-1 day today. It started out with my five game streak screeching to a halt when Hull City came out flat and sloppy in their match away at Middlesbrough. ‘Boro struck first, and early, as Afonso Alves took a shot from just outside the box which was saved by Matt Duke. The shot rebounded and Tuncay Sanli was in position to rocket the ball past Duke. Six minutes later Hull City were awarded a corner kick and Manucho made the best of it by heading a shot into the goal to tie things up 1-1. Twenty minutes later Middlesbrough had a corner kick and were able to set up Matthew Bates for a strike from two yards out. Middlesbrough took a 2-1 lead into the half. Hull City tried to apply pressure in the second half but were mostly unable to earn any real scoring opportunities. Middlesbrough was playing to stay out of relegation and Hull City looked like a team who felt they had nothing to play for. The two played scoreless until Marlon King found the net from 12 yards out giving ’Boro the badly needed three points with a 3-1 victory.
My next pick was Phil Mickelson to card a lower front 9 score. Ogilvy and Mickelson were all square through six holes but Ogilvy hit consecutive bogeys on the 6th and 7th holes. A birdie from Mickelson on the 8th hole give him a nearly insurmountable three stroke lead with only the 9th hole remaining. Mickelson hit par and Ogilvy ended up losing by three strokes.
My third pick was the Florida Marlins. The Marlins were having trouble hitting against Hernandez’s mid-70 mph knuckle balls. When they did advance batters to third they stranded those batters. In one inning Uggla was making a run to home plate but Hernandez made a miracle catch, throw to first, and the throw to home was just in time to tag Uggla out for the double play to end the inning. The Mets were having an easier time getting on base against Nolasco and picked up a run in the 3rd inning and three more in the 5th. Nolasco was relieved for the 6th inning but Miller gave up another run. The Mets tried to come back, scoring two runs in the 7th inning, but Penn gave up three more to the Mets in the 8th. The Marlins were down 8-2 in the bottom of the 9th and scored two runs in the 9th but by then they were hitting through the bottom of their order and Rodriguez completed the save for the Mets. Final score, Mets 8, Florida 4.
My final pick was Chivas USA to win. There was no scoring in the first half but plenty of yellow cards being issued. Just before the end of the half Chivas’ Paulo Nagamuro was given his second yellow card and sent off meaning Chivas USA would play a man down for the 2nd half. The Galaxy applied pressure and made substitutions for offense but Chivas USA were able to deflect their attacks. Donovan had a nifty pass leading to a goal waved off for offsides at one point and it seemed only a matter of time before L.A. scored. Alan Gordon for L.A. was awarded two yellow cards in the space of three minutes and sent off to even things up. 8 minutes later Eskandario beat the last defender and was about to break away towards the goal before Gregg Berhalter of L.A. committed a flagrant foul by grabbing the neck of Eskandario’s jersey and dragging him down to the ground. Since it was outside the penalty box there was no penalty kick awarded. Berhalter was sent off and L.A. survived a still timid Chivas attack for 11 minutes and barely staved off defeat in injury time after Chivas finally got it in their heads they had a tremendous advantage, were in no danger of being scored upon, and should try to score themselves. I was getting into soccer but I’m not interested in supporting a sport where flagrant fouls can reward the team who commits them. In the end it was a 0-0 draw and I received a push. So on to the picks.
1) Everton @ Aston Villa – Aston Villa win
2) Kevin Sutherland vs. Mike Weir – Sutherland cards a lower front 9 score
3) Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Hornets – New Orleans
4) New York Mets @ Florida Marlins – Florida
5) Nick Watney vs. Stephen Ames – Watney cards a lower front 9 score
6) Tiger Woods vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower 4th round score
7) Detroit Red Wings @ Chicago Blackhawks – Detroit
8) Angel Cabrera vs. Kenny Perry – Cabrera cards a lower front 9 score
9) Ray Allen vs. Mo Williams – Williams points
10) San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres – San Diego
11) New York Rangers @ Philadelphia Phillies – Philadelphia
12) Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors – Philadelphia
13) A. Soriano and D. Lee vs. R. Braun and P. Fielder – Soriano and Lee more total bases
Analysis
1) Aston Villa and Everton have each had some tough results lately with Everton losing away at Portsmouth and Villa having lost on a late injury time goal by Macheda in his Manchester United debut. I think Aston Villa will be riled up by that and want to prove they really are in the same class as the Big Four by dominating Everton. Tim Howard is playing with a sore hamstring so he may aggravate it during the match and if not he may have trouble jumping off of that leg to make saves, making one side of the goal more vulnerable to attack. The home and road records would definitely support taking the ‘and draw’ option here but the little things that imply which side will be playing a sharper, cleaner game favor Aston Villa
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Kevin Sutherland has not played in the Masters since 2003 where he finished tied for 33rd with a 7 over 72-hole score. In that round he improved his front 9 score by four strokes from the 3rd to the 4th round so he can handle the increased difficulty. Mike Weir has played in every Masters from 2001 forward. Last year he hit 2 over par on the front nine in the final round. He has tended to worsen his performance on the front 9 in the final round. In 33 rounds of golf at Augusta since 2001 Weir has carded many rounds under par, but he has only hit better than 2 under once. I can see Sutherland hitting anywhere from 3 under to 4 over and Weir hitting anywhere from 2 under to 4 over. I think that is generous for Weir considering he has hit even par, 3 over, and 4 over so far this year at Augusta. With those ranges of scores and assuming each score is equally probable Sutherland is the favorite at 50% with Weir having a 37.5% chance of winning and a push at 12.5%.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Dallas defeated New Orleans in Dallas two days ago making this a home-and-away series. Both teams are fighting for playoff seeding to increase their odds of advancing through the first round. Dallas is playing terrific since Josh Howard came back from injury while New Orleans has been playing poorly lately. It’s very difficult to win back-to-back games against an opponent and especially when the second game is on their home court. New Orleans is favored by 3 points and I think Dallas is just not quite superior enough to take both games.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
5) Stephen Ames has golfed in every Masters from 2005-present. He has never scored better than 2 over par in the 4th round on the front 9 even after hitting under par in the 3rd round. He has never improved his score from the 3rd round either. This is only Watney’s second Masters tournament but in that time he has carded even par or better on the front 9 in 7 of 9 rounds. His worst front 9 score has been 2 over par. I very much like the chances of Watney, whose worst performance on the front 9 is equal to or better than the best performance Ames has had in the 4th round, to win in this prop. Generously considering Ames has a good chance of hitting one under par and conservatively considering Watney has a good chance of hitting five over par I calculated Watney winning at 55.6%, Ames winning at 33.3% and a push at 11.1%.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) Angel Cabrera and Kenny Perry are tied at 11 under par going into the final round at Augusta so whoever wins this prop may very well be wearing the green jacket at the end. This is Perry’s first Masters since 2005 and the first time he has carded two rounds under 70. His best fourth round score was a 69 back in 1995. This is Cabrera’s 10th consecutive Masters and his first time carding three rounds under 70. His previous best fourth round score was a 68 in 2006. I give Perry the advantage here because he has been steadier with all three rounds being 68 or 69. In 31 rounds of play at Augusta since 2001 his average score is 72 and his median score is 72.5. In the 15 rounds Perry has played in that time his average and median scores are 74.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Mo Williams and the Cavaliers are at home against the Celtics today. Williams has outscored Ray Allen in all three previous meetings between the two teams. Ray Allen’s season high is 36 points and he has scored 30 or more three times this season. Mo Williams’ season high is 44 and he has scored 30 or more points four times.
12) The odds in Vegas for this game are currently even. Toronto is eliminated from the playoffs a long time ago but Philadelphia can’t afford to lose games down the stretch if they want to avoid Cleveland and Boston in the first round of the playoffs. Philadelphia is on a 4 game slide including losing their last 4 on the road but they have won in Toronto before this season, back in November, and have beaten the Lakers and Portland on the road in the past month.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
My next pick was Phil Mickelson to card a lower front 9 score. Ogilvy and Mickelson were all square through six holes but Ogilvy hit consecutive bogeys on the 6th and 7th holes. A birdie from Mickelson on the 8th hole give him a nearly insurmountable three stroke lead with only the 9th hole remaining. Mickelson hit par and Ogilvy ended up losing by three strokes.
My third pick was the Florida Marlins. The Marlins were having trouble hitting against Hernandez’s mid-70 mph knuckle balls. When they did advance batters to third they stranded those batters. In one inning Uggla was making a run to home plate but Hernandez made a miracle catch, throw to first, and the throw to home was just in time to tag Uggla out for the double play to end the inning. The Mets were having an easier time getting on base against Nolasco and picked up a run in the 3rd inning and three more in the 5th. Nolasco was relieved for the 6th inning but Miller gave up another run. The Mets tried to come back, scoring two runs in the 7th inning, but Penn gave up three more to the Mets in the 8th. The Marlins were down 8-2 in the bottom of the 9th and scored two runs in the 9th but by then they were hitting through the bottom of their order and Rodriguez completed the save for the Mets. Final score, Mets 8, Florida 4.
My final pick was Chivas USA to win. There was no scoring in the first half but plenty of yellow cards being issued. Just before the end of the half Chivas’ Paulo Nagamuro was given his second yellow card and sent off meaning Chivas USA would play a man down for the 2nd half. The Galaxy applied pressure and made substitutions for offense but Chivas USA were able to deflect their attacks. Donovan had a nifty pass leading to a goal waved off for offsides at one point and it seemed only a matter of time before L.A. scored. Alan Gordon for L.A. was awarded two yellow cards in the space of three minutes and sent off to even things up. 8 minutes later Eskandario beat the last defender and was about to break away towards the goal before Gregg Berhalter of L.A. committed a flagrant foul by grabbing the neck of Eskandario’s jersey and dragging him down to the ground. Since it was outside the penalty box there was no penalty kick awarded. Berhalter was sent off and L.A. survived a still timid Chivas attack for 11 minutes and barely staved off defeat in injury time after Chivas finally got it in their heads they had a tremendous advantage, were in no danger of being scored upon, and should try to score themselves. I was getting into soccer but I’m not interested in supporting a sport where flagrant fouls can reward the team who commits them. In the end it was a 0-0 draw and I received a push. So on to the picks.
1) Everton @ Aston Villa – Aston Villa win
2) Kevin Sutherland vs. Mike Weir – Sutherland cards a lower front 9 score
3) Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Hornets – New Orleans
4) New York Mets @ Florida Marlins – Florida
5) Nick Watney vs. Stephen Ames – Watney cards a lower front 9 score
6) Tiger Woods vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower 4th round score
7) Detroit Red Wings @ Chicago Blackhawks – Detroit
8) Angel Cabrera vs. Kenny Perry – Cabrera cards a lower front 9 score
9) Ray Allen vs. Mo Williams – Williams points
10) San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres – San Diego
11) New York Rangers @ Philadelphia Phillies – Philadelphia
12) Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors – Philadelphia
13) A. Soriano and D. Lee vs. R. Braun and P. Fielder – Soriano and Lee more total bases
Analysis
1) Aston Villa and Everton have each had some tough results lately with Everton losing away at Portsmouth and Villa having lost on a late injury time goal by Macheda in his Manchester United debut. I think Aston Villa will be riled up by that and want to prove they really are in the same class as the Big Four by dominating Everton. Tim Howard is playing with a sore hamstring so he may aggravate it during the match and if not he may have trouble jumping off of that leg to make saves, making one side of the goal more vulnerable to attack. The home and road records would definitely support taking the ‘and draw’ option here but the little things that imply which side will be playing a sharper, cleaner game favor Aston Villa
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Kevin Sutherland has not played in the Masters since 2003 where he finished tied for 33rd with a 7 over 72-hole score. In that round he improved his front 9 score by four strokes from the 3rd to the 4th round so he can handle the increased difficulty. Mike Weir has played in every Masters from 2001 forward. Last year he hit 2 over par on the front nine in the final round. He has tended to worsen his performance on the front 9 in the final round. In 33 rounds of golf at Augusta since 2001 Weir has carded many rounds under par, but he has only hit better than 2 under once. I can see Sutherland hitting anywhere from 3 under to 4 over and Weir hitting anywhere from 2 under to 4 over. I think that is generous for Weir considering he has hit even par, 3 over, and 4 over so far this year at Augusta. With those ranges of scores and assuming each score is equally probable Sutherland is the favorite at 50% with Weir having a 37.5% chance of winning and a push at 12.5%.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Dallas defeated New Orleans in Dallas two days ago making this a home-and-away series. Both teams are fighting for playoff seeding to increase their odds of advancing through the first round. Dallas is playing terrific since Josh Howard came back from injury while New Orleans has been playing poorly lately. It’s very difficult to win back-to-back games against an opponent and especially when the second game is on their home court. New Orleans is favored by 3 points and I think Dallas is just not quite superior enough to take both games.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
5) Stephen Ames has golfed in every Masters from 2005-present. He has never scored better than 2 over par in the 4th round on the front 9 even after hitting under par in the 3rd round. He has never improved his score from the 3rd round either. This is only Watney’s second Masters tournament but in that time he has carded even par or better on the front 9 in 7 of 9 rounds. His worst front 9 score has been 2 over par. I very much like the chances of Watney, whose worst performance on the front 9 is equal to or better than the best performance Ames has had in the 4th round, to win in this prop. Generously considering Ames has a good chance of hitting one under par and conservatively considering Watney has a good chance of hitting five over par I calculated Watney winning at 55.6%, Ames winning at 33.3% and a push at 11.1%.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) Angel Cabrera and Kenny Perry are tied at 11 under par going into the final round at Augusta so whoever wins this prop may very well be wearing the green jacket at the end. This is Perry’s first Masters since 2005 and the first time he has carded two rounds under 70. His best fourth round score was a 69 back in 1995. This is Cabrera’s 10th consecutive Masters and his first time carding three rounds under 70. His previous best fourth round score was a 68 in 2006. I give Perry the advantage here because he has been steadier with all three rounds being 68 or 69. In 31 rounds of play at Augusta since 2001 his average score is 72 and his median score is 72.5. In the 15 rounds Perry has played in that time his average and median scores are 74.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Mo Williams and the Cavaliers are at home against the Celtics today. Williams has outscored Ray Allen in all three previous meetings between the two teams. Ray Allen’s season high is 36 points and he has scored 30 or more three times this season. Mo Williams’ season high is 44 and he has scored 30 or more points four times.
12) The odds in Vegas for this game are currently even. Toronto is eliminated from the playoffs a long time ago but Philadelphia can’t afford to lose games down the stretch if they want to avoid Cleveland and Boston in the first round of the playoffs. Philadelphia is on a 4 game slide including losing their last 4 on the road but they have won in Toronto before this season, back in November, and have beaten the Lakers and Portland on the road in the past month.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
Saturday, April 11, 2009
April 11th, 2009 Picks
Sweet, 2-0-0 today bringing my streak to 5. My first pick was Ian Poulter to score lower than Tom Watson and Steve Wilson. Steve Wilson took the early one stroke lead with a birdie on the 2nd hole. Wilson gave the lead back by taking a bogey on the par-3 4th hole. Watson and Wilson were the next to deviate from par with bogeys on the 5th hole giving Ian Poulter a one stroke lead. On the 7th hole Poulter went to one over par as he and Watson both took a bogey. Poulter and Wilson were tied going into the 9th hole with Watson down a stroke. Wilson hit a bogey while Poulter hit a birdie and Poulter took the prop by two strokes while finishing at even par for the front 9.
My next pick was the St. Louis Blues at home. They took a 2-0 lead after the first period, converting 2 of 3 power plays and and limiting Columbus to 5 shots on goal. Columbus scored four minutes in to the second period but St. Louis was able to get a goal back four minutes later. The third period went scoreless and the Blues picked up a 3-1 victory to clinch a playoff spot. Columbus took 17 shots on goal for the entire game and had zero power play opportunities. St. Louis spent two minutes in the box and converted a third of their power plays. So on to the picks.
1) Hull City @ Middlesbrough – Hull City win or draw
2) Ryuji Imada vs. Stuart Appleby – Imada cards a lower front 9 score
3) Carolina Hurricanes @ New Jersey Devils – Carolina
4) Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Indians – Toronto
5) How many holes under par will Tiger Woods card: 5 or more or 4 or less – 4 or less
6) Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds – Cincinnati
7) Geoff Ogilvy vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower front 9 score
8) Chad Campbell vs. Kenny Perry – Campbell cards a lower third round score
9) Boston Bruins @ Buffalo Sabres – Buffalo
10) Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards – Busch places lower
11) Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
12) New York Mets @ Florida Marlins – Florida
13) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Montreal Canadiens – Montreal
14) Ottawa Senators @ Toronto Maple Leafs – Toronto
15) Boston University vs. Miami(OH) – 6 goals or more
16) Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves – Minnesota
17) San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres – San Diego
18) Chivas USA @ Los Angeles Galaxy – Chivas USA
Analysis
1) Aside from defeating a distracted and resting Liverpool in February Middlesbrough have not won a match at home since defeating Manchester City in October of 2008 and Manchester City are easily one of the worst road teams in the English Premier. Don’t put too much stock in that win at home versus Liverpool, Hull City played Chelsea to a 0-0 draw at Anfield around the same time. A lot of top 5 English Premier teams underperformed from the middle of February to the beginning of March because of the attention paid to European competition. Every year teams are trying to avoid relegation and lose 2 points or all 3 at home in must win matches against ‘relatively weak sides’. And every year three clubs are relegated. Here is what tells me Hull City is the best bet here. Hull City hasn’t lost a game on the road this season to anyone lower than 10th in the tables. They have collected more points on the road than they have at home, 20 to 14. Hull City are 7th place in the Premier League in terms of points earned on the road. Middlesbrough have lost and drawn to far worse road sides, e.g. Portsmouth D 1-1, West Brom L 0-1, Newcastle United D 0-0, Sunderland D 1-1, Bolton Wanderers L 1-3. Check these teams’ road records, they are not performing as well on the road as Hull City.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Ryuji Imada finished 13th on the money list last year and Stuart Appleby finished 22nd. Imada did play in two more events but won an average of $12,000 more per event. He had two event wins and two other top 5 finishes compared to Appleby finishing in the top 5 twice. In this year’s Masters Imada carded a lower front 9 score by one stroke in the first round and by two strokes in the second round. In the past 8 years Appleby has never improved his front 9 score from the 2nd round to the 3rd round at Augusta. I think Appleby will score anywhere from 2 under to 2 over which I think is generous since 2 under would be an improvement. I also think Imada will score from 3 under to 2 over which would be a four stroke slide. With each score in that range being equally probable Imada has a 50% chance of winning, Appleby has a 33% chance of winning and there is a 17% chance they score the same. I think Imada is a better golfer at this point in their careers and that will overcome Appleby’s experience at Augusta.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
3) Carolina is 9-1-0 in their last 10 games and 3-2-0 in their last 5 on the road. New Jersey is 3-6-1 in their last 10 games and 2-1-1 in their last 5 at home. During that time Martin Brodeur has started each game. He has a 3.3 GAA and has made saves on 88.9% of shots on goal in those 10 games. Cam Ward will not be starting tonight for Carolina, with Mike Leighton taking the net in his place. Leighton has 18 starts on the season and a 2.91 GAA with saves on 90% of the shots taken at him. New Jersey are favored at -120 in Vegas and Carolina is at even odds.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
8) Kenny Perry hasn’t played in the Masters since 2005. This is his 9th Masters appearance. He’s been cut 5 times and his best finish was tied for 12th with 5 under in 1995. It’s the only time he’s finished under par. This is Chad Campbell’s 6th Masters appearance and first since 2007. He has been cut 3 times and his best finish was tied for 3rd in 2006 at 4 under par. Both of these golfers will probably tank out of the top 10 after today but Campbell has finished higher than Perry more often and more recently.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
11) The Boston Red Sox are -130 favorites with the Los Angeles Angels being +110 underdogs. Home underdogs are 12-7 in Major League Baseball so far this season. Contrary to the listing on the streak board Joe Saunders will be starting for Los Angeles. Saunders is 7-0 in April from ‘06 to ’08 with a 2.04 ERA in over 61 innings pitched. He’s 4-0 against the Red Sox in that time with an ERA of 2.89 in just over 37 innings pitched. He’s 15-9 at Angel Stadium with a 4.77 ERA in 203 innings. Penny is also pretty good in April but the last time he pitched against the Angels he got rocked for 8 runs in 5 innings, but that was in 2007.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
12) Florida has terrific odds at home here being -150 favorites and New York being +130 underdogs. Florida is starting Nolasco on the mound, considered to be one of their best starting pitchers. He has struggled a bit against the Mets in the past, however, with a 6.28 ERA over the past 3 years in 47 innings pitched. He has pitched more innings against New York than any other team and his ERA is higher versus the Mets than any other team. New York is starting Livan Hernandez who has not fared any better against Florida. He has allowed 23 runs in nearly 29 innings pitched. This is Florida’s home opener and being the favorites with Nolasco on the mound should give them the advantage.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
15) The odds on the over/under here are pretty much dead even. I watched the game with Vermont and Boston University and Boston has an incredible team. They were getting takeaways at an incredible rate which will create scoring opportunities. Madore started as goalie for Vermont and he is going to be an NHL starter in a few years. In one of the Vermont defeats Boston U had 41 of their 44 shots saved by Madore. Against Miami(OH) Boston should be able to score more easily and for every goal Miami(OH) may score Boston will up the intensity to score another.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
16) Phoenix is favored by 3 points in this game. This could easily be another game where Phoenix puts 13 different players on the court by half time. Minnesota is a team like Memphis who are just trying to get wins at the end of the season to get a feel for what it feels like and for their home fans.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
17) Well I must admit I’m not too familiar with these teams yet or the pitchers on the mound. The lines have moved in favor of the Padres since they opened last night, however. Currently San Diego are favored at -160 and San Francisco are +150 underdogs. In terms of percent chance winning with the bookmakers’ profit margins being accounted for that is the Padres at 60.6% and the Giants at 39.4%. Here a few pitching stats. Peavy has a 2.71 ERA in PETCO park in the past 341 innings he has pitched there. Last year Peavy was 0-2 against the Giants with a 3.60 ERA in 15 innings and 10 strikeouts and 2 walks. Both losses were at PETCO Park. Sanchez pitched 12 innings against the Padres and had a 1.50 ERA last year. The odds are terrific but Sanchez is a solid starter against San Diego for the Giants.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
My next pick was the St. Louis Blues at home. They took a 2-0 lead after the first period, converting 2 of 3 power plays and and limiting Columbus to 5 shots on goal. Columbus scored four minutes in to the second period but St. Louis was able to get a goal back four minutes later. The third period went scoreless and the Blues picked up a 3-1 victory to clinch a playoff spot. Columbus took 17 shots on goal for the entire game and had zero power play opportunities. St. Louis spent two minutes in the box and converted a third of their power plays. So on to the picks.
1) Hull City @ Middlesbrough – Hull City win or draw
2) Ryuji Imada vs. Stuart Appleby – Imada cards a lower front 9 score
3) Carolina Hurricanes @ New Jersey Devils – Carolina
4) Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Indians – Toronto
5) How many holes under par will Tiger Woods card: 5 or more or 4 or less – 4 or less
6) Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds – Cincinnati
7) Geoff Ogilvy vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower front 9 score
8) Chad Campbell vs. Kenny Perry – Campbell cards a lower third round score
9) Boston Bruins @ Buffalo Sabres – Buffalo
10) Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards – Busch places lower
11) Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
12) New York Mets @ Florida Marlins – Florida
13) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Montreal Canadiens – Montreal
14) Ottawa Senators @ Toronto Maple Leafs – Toronto
15) Boston University vs. Miami(OH) – 6 goals or more
16) Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves – Minnesota
17) San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres – San Diego
18) Chivas USA @ Los Angeles Galaxy – Chivas USA
Analysis
1) Aside from defeating a distracted and resting Liverpool in February Middlesbrough have not won a match at home since defeating Manchester City in October of 2008 and Manchester City are easily one of the worst road teams in the English Premier. Don’t put too much stock in that win at home versus Liverpool, Hull City played Chelsea to a 0-0 draw at Anfield around the same time. A lot of top 5 English Premier teams underperformed from the middle of February to the beginning of March because of the attention paid to European competition. Every year teams are trying to avoid relegation and lose 2 points or all 3 at home in must win matches against ‘relatively weak sides’. And every year three clubs are relegated. Here is what tells me Hull City is the best bet here. Hull City hasn’t lost a game on the road this season to anyone lower than 10th in the tables. They have collected more points on the road than they have at home, 20 to 14. Hull City are 7th place in the Premier League in terms of points earned on the road. Middlesbrough have lost and drawn to far worse road sides, e.g. Portsmouth D 1-1, West Brom L 0-1, Newcastle United D 0-0, Sunderland D 1-1, Bolton Wanderers L 1-3. Check these teams’ road records, they are not performing as well on the road as Hull City.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Ryuji Imada finished 13th on the money list last year and Stuart Appleby finished 22nd. Imada did play in two more events but won an average of $12,000 more per event. He had two event wins and two other top 5 finishes compared to Appleby finishing in the top 5 twice. In this year’s Masters Imada carded a lower front 9 score by one stroke in the first round and by two strokes in the second round. In the past 8 years Appleby has never improved his front 9 score from the 2nd round to the 3rd round at Augusta. I think Appleby will score anywhere from 2 under to 2 over which I think is generous since 2 under would be an improvement. I also think Imada will score from 3 under to 2 over which would be a four stroke slide. With each score in that range being equally probable Imada has a 50% chance of winning, Appleby has a 33% chance of winning and there is a 17% chance they score the same. I think Imada is a better golfer at this point in their careers and that will overcome Appleby’s experience at Augusta.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
3) Carolina is 9-1-0 in their last 10 games and 3-2-0 in their last 5 on the road. New Jersey is 3-6-1 in their last 10 games and 2-1-1 in their last 5 at home. During that time Martin Brodeur has started each game. He has a 3.3 GAA and has made saves on 88.9% of shots on goal in those 10 games. Cam Ward will not be starting tonight for Carolina, with Mike Leighton taking the net in his place. Leighton has 18 starts on the season and a 2.91 GAA with saves on 90% of the shots taken at him. New Jersey are favored at -120 in Vegas and Carolina is at even odds.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
8) Kenny Perry hasn’t played in the Masters since 2005. This is his 9th Masters appearance. He’s been cut 5 times and his best finish was tied for 12th with 5 under in 1995. It’s the only time he’s finished under par. This is Chad Campbell’s 6th Masters appearance and first since 2007. He has been cut 3 times and his best finish was tied for 3rd in 2006 at 4 under par. Both of these golfers will probably tank out of the top 10 after today but Campbell has finished higher than Perry more often and more recently.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
11) The Boston Red Sox are -130 favorites with the Los Angeles Angels being +110 underdogs. Home underdogs are 12-7 in Major League Baseball so far this season. Contrary to the listing on the streak board Joe Saunders will be starting for Los Angeles. Saunders is 7-0 in April from ‘06 to ’08 with a 2.04 ERA in over 61 innings pitched. He’s 4-0 against the Red Sox in that time with an ERA of 2.89 in just over 37 innings pitched. He’s 15-9 at Angel Stadium with a 4.77 ERA in 203 innings. Penny is also pretty good in April but the last time he pitched against the Angels he got rocked for 8 runs in 5 innings, but that was in 2007.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
12) Florida has terrific odds at home here being -150 favorites and New York being +130 underdogs. Florida is starting Nolasco on the mound, considered to be one of their best starting pitchers. He has struggled a bit against the Mets in the past, however, with a 6.28 ERA over the past 3 years in 47 innings pitched. He has pitched more innings against New York than any other team and his ERA is higher versus the Mets than any other team. New York is starting Livan Hernandez who has not fared any better against Florida. He has allowed 23 runs in nearly 29 innings pitched. This is Florida’s home opener and being the favorites with Nolasco on the mound should give them the advantage.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
15) The odds on the over/under here are pretty much dead even. I watched the game with Vermont and Boston University and Boston has an incredible team. They were getting takeaways at an incredible rate which will create scoring opportunities. Madore started as goalie for Vermont and he is going to be an NHL starter in a few years. In one of the Vermont defeats Boston U had 41 of their 44 shots saved by Madore. Against Miami(OH) Boston should be able to score more easily and for every goal Miami(OH) may score Boston will up the intensity to score another.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
16) Phoenix is favored by 3 points in this game. This could easily be another game where Phoenix puts 13 different players on the court by half time. Minnesota is a team like Memphis who are just trying to get wins at the end of the season to get a feel for what it feels like and for their home fans.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
17) Well I must admit I’m not too familiar with these teams yet or the pitchers on the mound. The lines have moved in favor of the Padres since they opened last night, however. Currently San Diego are favored at -160 and San Francisco are +150 underdogs. In terms of percent chance winning with the bookmakers’ profit margins being accounted for that is the Padres at 60.6% and the Giants at 39.4%. Here a few pitching stats. Peavy has a 2.71 ERA in PETCO park in the past 341 innings he has pitched there. Last year Peavy was 0-2 against the Giants with a 3.60 ERA in 15 innings and 10 strikeouts and 2 walks. Both losses were at PETCO Park. Sanchez pitched 12 innings against the Padres and had a 1.50 ERA last year. The odds are terrific but Sanchez is a solid starter against San Diego for the Giants.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
Friday, April 10, 2009
April 10th, 2009 Picks
It feels much later than 11:30, 3-0-0 today. My first pick was Chez Reavie to card the lower front 9 score. Chez Reavie took an early 1 stroke lead when he birdied the par-5 #2. He bogeyed on #3 to move back to even par but Woosnam hit a bogey as well. At the par-5 8th hole Woosnam managed another bogey giving Reavie a two stroke lead heading into the last hole. Reavie saved his par as did Woosnam and Reavie carded an even par 36 while Woosnam carded a two over 38.
My second pick was Shakhtar Donetsk. Olympique Marseille would have been happy with a draw in this matchup and were playing a more defensive game in the first half. They took four shots in the first 45 minutes as Donetsk were terrific at getting a foot or head on the ball to stop attacks. Marseille played fantastic controlling the tempo and winning nearly every challenge on lobbed passes. Tomas Hubschman scored off a header at 36' minute to give Donetsk the 1-0 lead.
Without an away goal and down by one Marseille went into the attack more taking five shots in the first 15 minutes of the 2nd half. Some fantastic saves by Shakhtar’s defense kept Marseille out of the nets and Donetsk eventually regained the momentum. Any time they were within 18 yards they were a danger to score with aggressive passing but waiting to take a shot until a perfect opportunity opened up. It’s a credit to Marseille they only allowed a single goal in the second half to Rodrigues Jadson 65' minute. Shakhtar survived another flurry from Marseilles and came out with the 2-0 victory.
My third pick was Boston University. With the odds favoring them to win at -250 or so it was as good a choice as any one will see on the Streak here. Many times a pick with 90 percent will lose because they are only favored at -150 or even be underdogs in the sports books. Boston came out intercepting crisp passes from Vermont and utilizing outstanding stick play to block shots. Boston was up 2-0 at the end of the first period. Boston players were sent to the box 4 times three of which were converted by Vermont. A power play goal by the Terriers square at three after two. Vermont went up on a power play goal midway through the third period and Boston failed to take any dangerous shots on a power play of their own. Seconds after the aborted attempt they scored to tie things up and scored again a minute later. Their defense held Vermont off and Boston University advanced to the NCAA Championship with a 5-4 win. So on to the picks.
1) Tom Watson or Steve Wilson vs. Ian Poulter – Poulter cards a lower front 9 score
2) Tiger Woods’ 2nd Round Score: 69 or lower vs. 70 or higher – 69 or lower
3) Rory McIlroy vs. Anthony Kim – Kim cards a lower front 9 score
4) Maritimo @ Braga – Braga win
5) Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers – Detroit
6) Jim Furyk vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower 2nd round score
7) Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies – Colorado
8) New York Mets @ Florida Marlins – Florida
9) Nashville Predators @ Minnesota Wild – Minnesota
10) Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies – Phoenix
11) Larry Hughes vs. Orlando Magic win margin – Orlando win margin
12) St. Louis Blues @ Columbus Blues Jackets – St. Louis
13) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Los Angeles
14) Los Angeles Lakers @ Portland Trailblazers – Los Angeles
15) Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
Shouts to nawledge, i dunno, Boogie, 9@home, and Espiv.
Analysis
1) Steve Wilson is the current Mid-Amateur Champion which is how he got the invite to Augusta this year. He hit four over in the first round and an even par front 9 would be a terrific accomplishment for him. Tom Watson is another 50+ year old golfer who won in 1981 and so has a lifetime invite to the Masters. Poulter is the clear favorite. I took the front 9 scores of Poulter and Watson going back to 2001 and calculated averages and median scores. Poulter averages +1.29 on the front 9 and Watson averages +1.26, while their median score is +1. I looked at how they did from the first and second rounds and came up with a range of scores they could be expected to hit within. I assigned an equal probability to each score within that range. For wilson I assumed he could hit anywhere from even par to +8. I took the intersection and unions of subsets that would result in a Poulter win, a push, and a Poulter loss. The result was Poulter wins at 60.3%, a push is at 15.9%, and Poulter loses at 23.8%. I was fairly conservative with the range of Poulter’s scores assuming he would hit anywhere from 2 under to 1 over par and fairly generous with Watson assuming he would hit anywhere from 2 under par to 4 over par. At 60% Poulter is a -150 favorite to win. Actual sports books have him a -275 favorite.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
3) Well, it’s too late for this. I had Kim as the pick here because he has a proven track record of success. Kim had won his first PGA Tour event at 22, his second soon after turning 23, defeated the 2nd overall world ranked golfer, Sergio Garcia, in the Ryder Cup last year, and finished 2008 6th on the PGA Tour’s money list. At Doral Kim and McIlroy hit the same score on the front 9 in two rounds, and each hit a lower score on one round. At the Shell Houston Open Kim scored lower on two rounds, they pushed once, and McIlroy had the lower score in one round. With McIlroy not having won a Tour event before I would say it’s safest to go with Kim, even after Kim was two strokes worse on the front 9 yesterday.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) Well skybet.com has the odds for Braga a win at 4:5 and a Maritimo win at 10:3 with the draw at 9:4. In terms of money lines that’s -125 for Braga with Maritimo being +333, and the draw being +225. Those are good odds for the home team without the and draw option. Without the bookmakers profits Braga are 50% favorites to win, Maritimo are given a 21.1% chance and the draw a 28.8% chance. Braga is 7-3-2 at home with 15 goals for and 6 goals against. They had a 5-0 home victory over Estrela Amadora so they generally average 0.91 goals at home and allow 0.5 goals. Maritimo is 3-4-4 on the road with 10 goals scored and 10 goals against. Braga has shut out their opponents in all seven of their victories at home but have lost or drawn every match in which their opponent has scored. Maritimo has only been shut out four times in 11 away matches, and only twice did they lose in those matches. They played FC Porto to a 0-0 draw at Porto. Looking at the players who have been called to the teams it looks like Alberto Ze Meyong did not meet fitness requirements for the match and will not play. Still, Braga should be able to win 1-0 as they have never been held scoreless at home, but if Maritimo scores I wouldn’t like Braga’s chances.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) In the past 10 years at the Masters Mickelson has averaged 70.2 in the second round while Furyk has averaged 72.6. Furyk shot a 6 under par 66 yesterday which is his best round at Augusta in over 10 years. In the past years he has shot a 68 twice and was seven over par in the subsequent round. He had a round of 69 once and shot a 71 the round after, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Furyk went all the way to even par or over par for this round. Mickelson averages cutting a stroke off his first round score in the past 10 years while Furyk generally adds a stroke to his second round score. Mickelson has been going through a phase where he cuts three strokes off his second round score for two years, then adds a couple of strokes the next two years. He’s in a year where he adds strokes to his round. So if you believe in patterns take Furyk but otherwise go with Mickelson.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
9) Minnesota is 5-4-1 in their last 10 games, and 3-0-2 at home recently, including a 4-0 thrashing of Calgary. Nashville is 5-3-2 in their past 10 and 2-2-1 on the road. Nashville is 2-1-0 against Minnesota this season, winning in Minnesota but also losing in Nashville. Nashville is on the second night of a back-to-back with a record of 6-4-2 in such games. I’ll update later with the goalie situation. Nashville needs two points to stay in the playoff race but if Niklas Backstrom is starting for the Wild it means they’re taking the game just as seriously.
UPDATE: Backstrom is starting, and why wouldn’t he? The Wild must win out to have a chance at the playoffs.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
11) Orlando is favored by 11 points in Vegas, so they’ll either not cover the spread and win by 5 or win by 20 or more. A loss is fairly unlikely except for the Knicks have given Orlando trouble this year. The Knicks have lost by 5, 7, and 4 points this year to Orlando. In those games Hughes scored 2 points in 15 minutes, 0 points in 14 minutes, and did not play in the third game. Hughes had a stretch of games from the end of February until the end of March where he averaged 19.8 points per game. He’s been dealing with injury however and should see limited minutes tonight. If Hughes plays 20 minutes and scores 8 points if the Knicks can avoid the blowout Hughes just might win this prop.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
14) The Lakers are a half game back from Cleveland for the best record in the NBA. They’re coming off a solid victory over Denver last night where Andrew Bynum returned to the lineup. At 63-16 you know they have a good record on back to back games and on the road. The 1-2-3 punch of Bynum, Gasol, and Kobe should be too much for the TrailBlazers to handle, just like it was earlier in the year when they lost by double digits in L.A.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
15) For the moment I’m not sure about the pitchers in this game but I do know that the Angels are going to be playing to honor their departed friend and teammate Nick Adenhart.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
My second pick was Shakhtar Donetsk. Olympique Marseille would have been happy with a draw in this matchup and were playing a more defensive game in the first half. They took four shots in the first 45 minutes as Donetsk were terrific at getting a foot or head on the ball to stop attacks. Marseille played fantastic controlling the tempo and winning nearly every challenge on lobbed passes. Tomas Hubschman scored off a header at 36' minute to give Donetsk the 1-0 lead.
Without an away goal and down by one Marseille went into the attack more taking five shots in the first 15 minutes of the 2nd half. Some fantastic saves by Shakhtar’s defense kept Marseille out of the nets and Donetsk eventually regained the momentum. Any time they were within 18 yards they were a danger to score with aggressive passing but waiting to take a shot until a perfect opportunity opened up. It’s a credit to Marseille they only allowed a single goal in the second half to Rodrigues Jadson 65' minute. Shakhtar survived another flurry from Marseilles and came out with the 2-0 victory.
My third pick was Boston University. With the odds favoring them to win at -250 or so it was as good a choice as any one will see on the Streak here. Many times a pick with 90 percent will lose because they are only favored at -150 or even be underdogs in the sports books. Boston came out intercepting crisp passes from Vermont and utilizing outstanding stick play to block shots. Boston was up 2-0 at the end of the first period. Boston players were sent to the box 4 times three of which were converted by Vermont. A power play goal by the Terriers square at three after two. Vermont went up on a power play goal midway through the third period and Boston failed to take any dangerous shots on a power play of their own. Seconds after the aborted attempt they scored to tie things up and scored again a minute later. Their defense held Vermont off and Boston University advanced to the NCAA Championship with a 5-4 win. So on to the picks.
1) Tom Watson or Steve Wilson vs. Ian Poulter – Poulter cards a lower front 9 score
2) Tiger Woods’ 2nd Round Score: 69 or lower vs. 70 or higher – 69 or lower
3) Rory McIlroy vs. Anthony Kim – Kim cards a lower front 9 score
4) Maritimo @ Braga – Braga win
5) Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers – Detroit
6) Jim Furyk vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower 2nd round score
7) Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies – Colorado
8) New York Mets @ Florida Marlins – Florida
9) Nashville Predators @ Minnesota Wild – Minnesota
10) Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies – Phoenix
11) Larry Hughes vs. Orlando Magic win margin – Orlando win margin
12) St. Louis Blues @ Columbus Blues Jackets – St. Louis
13) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Los Angeles
14) Los Angeles Lakers @ Portland Trailblazers – Los Angeles
15) Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
Shouts to nawledge, i dunno, Boogie, 9@home, and Espiv.
Analysis
1) Steve Wilson is the current Mid-Amateur Champion which is how he got the invite to Augusta this year. He hit four over in the first round and an even par front 9 would be a terrific accomplishment for him. Tom Watson is another 50+ year old golfer who won in 1981 and so has a lifetime invite to the Masters. Poulter is the clear favorite. I took the front 9 scores of Poulter and Watson going back to 2001 and calculated averages and median scores. Poulter averages +1.29 on the front 9 and Watson averages +1.26, while their median score is +1. I looked at how they did from the first and second rounds and came up with a range of scores they could be expected to hit within. I assigned an equal probability to each score within that range. For wilson I assumed he could hit anywhere from even par to +8. I took the intersection and unions of subsets that would result in a Poulter win, a push, and a Poulter loss. The result was Poulter wins at 60.3%, a push is at 15.9%, and Poulter loses at 23.8%. I was fairly conservative with the range of Poulter’s scores assuming he would hit anywhere from 2 under to 1 over par and fairly generous with Watson assuming he would hit anywhere from 2 under par to 4 over par. At 60% Poulter is a -150 favorite to win. Actual sports books have him a -275 favorite.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
3) Well, it’s too late for this. I had Kim as the pick here because he has a proven track record of success. Kim had won his first PGA Tour event at 22, his second soon after turning 23, defeated the 2nd overall world ranked golfer, Sergio Garcia, in the Ryder Cup last year, and finished 2008 6th on the PGA Tour’s money list. At Doral Kim and McIlroy hit the same score on the front 9 in two rounds, and each hit a lower score on one round. At the Shell Houston Open Kim scored lower on two rounds, they pushed once, and McIlroy had the lower score in one round. With McIlroy not having won a Tour event before I would say it’s safest to go with Kim, even after Kim was two strokes worse on the front 9 yesterday.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) Well skybet.com has the odds for Braga a win at 4:5 and a Maritimo win at 10:3 with the draw at 9:4. In terms of money lines that’s -125 for Braga with Maritimo being +333, and the draw being +225. Those are good odds for the home team without the and draw option. Without the bookmakers profits Braga are 50% favorites to win, Maritimo are given a 21.1% chance and the draw a 28.8% chance. Braga is 7-3-2 at home with 15 goals for and 6 goals against. They had a 5-0 home victory over Estrela Amadora so they generally average 0.91 goals at home and allow 0.5 goals. Maritimo is 3-4-4 on the road with 10 goals scored and 10 goals against. Braga has shut out their opponents in all seven of their victories at home but have lost or drawn every match in which their opponent has scored. Maritimo has only been shut out four times in 11 away matches, and only twice did they lose in those matches. They played FC Porto to a 0-0 draw at Porto. Looking at the players who have been called to the teams it looks like Alberto Ze Meyong did not meet fitness requirements for the match and will not play. Still, Braga should be able to win 1-0 as they have never been held scoreless at home, but if Maritimo scores I wouldn’t like Braga’s chances.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) In the past 10 years at the Masters Mickelson has averaged 70.2 in the second round while Furyk has averaged 72.6. Furyk shot a 6 under par 66 yesterday which is his best round at Augusta in over 10 years. In the past years he has shot a 68 twice and was seven over par in the subsequent round. He had a round of 69 once and shot a 71 the round after, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Furyk went all the way to even par or over par for this round. Mickelson averages cutting a stroke off his first round score in the past 10 years while Furyk generally adds a stroke to his second round score. Mickelson has been going through a phase where he cuts three strokes off his second round score for two years, then adds a couple of strokes the next two years. He’s in a year where he adds strokes to his round. So if you believe in patterns take Furyk but otherwise go with Mickelson.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
9) Minnesota is 5-4-1 in their last 10 games, and 3-0-2 at home recently, including a 4-0 thrashing of Calgary. Nashville is 5-3-2 in their past 10 and 2-2-1 on the road. Nashville is 2-1-0 against Minnesota this season, winning in Minnesota but also losing in Nashville. Nashville is on the second night of a back-to-back with a record of 6-4-2 in such games. I’ll update later with the goalie situation. Nashville needs two points to stay in the playoff race but if Niklas Backstrom is starting for the Wild it means they’re taking the game just as seriously.
UPDATE: Backstrom is starting, and why wouldn’t he? The Wild must win out to have a chance at the playoffs.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
11) Orlando is favored by 11 points in Vegas, so they’ll either not cover the spread and win by 5 or win by 20 or more. A loss is fairly unlikely except for the Knicks have given Orlando trouble this year. The Knicks have lost by 5, 7, and 4 points this year to Orlando. In those games Hughes scored 2 points in 15 minutes, 0 points in 14 minutes, and did not play in the third game. Hughes had a stretch of games from the end of February until the end of March where he averaged 19.8 points per game. He’s been dealing with injury however and should see limited minutes tonight. If Hughes plays 20 minutes and scores 8 points if the Knicks can avoid the blowout Hughes just might win this prop.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
14) The Lakers are a half game back from Cleveland for the best record in the NBA. They’re coming off a solid victory over Denver last night where Andrew Bynum returned to the lineup. At 63-16 you know they have a good record on back to back games and on the road. The 1-2-3 punch of Bynum, Gasol, and Kobe should be too much for the TrailBlazers to handle, just like it was earlier in the year when they lost by double digits in L.A.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
15) For the moment I’m not sure about the pitchers in this game but I do know that the Angels are going to be playing to honor their departed friend and teammate Nick Adenhart.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
Thursday, April 9, 2009
April 9th, 2009 Picks
1-1-0 again. I started off picking China in curling. The small asterisk in the Curlcast boxscores denotes which team has the last rock advantage in the first end, and in every other end afterwards. China and Denmark traded scoring rocks when they had the advantage but Denmark could not capitalize in the 4th end and China took a 4-1 advantage after the 5th. Denmark then made a comeback, keeping China scoreless in the 7th end and tying it up 4-4 after the 8th end. China and Denmark each scored two in the next two ends and it was tied 6-6 and went into an 11th end, with China having the last rock advantage. They made good and won the draw 7-6 over Denmark.
My second pick was the Red Sox over the Rays. This time the Rays struck first with Iwamura scoring after Youkilis committed an error on a throw to second. Youkilis was trying to throw out Bartlett but the ball bounced off Bartlett’s back and into left field, allowing the run to score. Youkilis made up for it in the bottom of the 3rd when he drove in Pedroia to tie the score at 1-1. In the 5th inning the Rays finally figured out Lester’s stuff. There was a bunt single RBI, SS-2B-3B double play that left the runner at 3B safe to cross home and a Carlos Pena two run homer, his first hit this season.
Evan Longoria extended the lead to 6-1 with a solo home run in the 8th inning. The Red Sox had an aborted comeback attempt in the bottom of the inning. Bay hit an RBI double and Howell hit the next batter with a pitch to load the bases with the tying run coming up to bat. Howell saved the inning with a strikeout leaving all three runners stranded. The Rays got another run in the 9th inning and Grant Balfour retired the Sox 1-2-3 to finish them off. Tampa Bay won at Fenway 7-2. So on to the picks of another day.
1) Ian Woosnam vs. Chez Reavie – Reavie cards a lower front 9 score
2) South Africa vs. Australia – South Africa
3) Camilo Villegas vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower front 9 score
4) Olympique Marseille @ Shakhtar Donetsk – Shakhtar Donetsk win
5) Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
6) Tiger Woods vs. Stewart Cink or Jeev Singh – Woods cards a lower 1st round score
7) Cleveland Indians @ Texas Rangers – Texas
8) Manchester City @ Hamburg SV – Hamburg SV win
9) Bemidji State vs. Miami (OH) – Bemidji State
10) Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants – Milwaukee
11) New Jersey Devils @ Ottawa Senators – Ottawa
12) Vermont vs. Boston University – Boston University
13) Dallas Stars @ Colorado Avalanche – Colorado
14) Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
15) Carmelo Anthony vs. Kobe Bryant – Bryant pts.
Analysis
1) Ian Woosnam has played in 20 Masters Tournaments in his career, winning his fourth in 1991. Recently he has not been as successful, finishing 44th last year, and missing the cut from 2001 to 2006. He finished 40th in 2000. This is Chez Reavie’s 2nd Masters, with his only other appearance being in 2002 where he missed the cut with a score of +16. On the front 9 Reavie did not do too terribly, however, scoring +2 in the first round and +3 in the second. Woosnam’s front 9 scores from 2001-2006/2008 are: +1, -1, +2, +3, +3, E, +3, +4, +2, +1, +2, +1, +5, +2, E, and +4. Woosnam’s average and median score is +2, while Reavie’s average and median score is +2.5. As far as 1st round front nines Woosnam has carded: +1, +3, +3, +2, +2, +5, E. Average: +2.29, median: +2. Reavie’s first round average and median is +2. Reavie won the RBC Canadian Open last year. Past winners at the RBC include Jim Furyk, Vijay Singh, and Tiger Woods. Reavie made $1.4 million on the PGA Tour in 2008 and finished 71st on the money list but played in 30 events. Ian Woosnam made just over $200,000 on the Champions Tour (for golfers over 50 years old) and finished 66th on the money list, but only played in 9 of 29 events.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Villegas’ front 9 scores in 2008 and 2007 were: +1, +4, +3, +6. His first round front 9 scores are +1 and +3. Mickelson has played in 16 Masters before, and from 2008-2001 he has scored: -1, -3, +1, E, +4, +2, E, +4, -1, -1, -2, -2 (won in ‘06), -1, +1, -2, -1, -1, E, -3, +2 (won in ’04), +2, -4, +1, -1, -2, -1, -2, E, -1, -3, -2, -2. Mickelson’s first round front 9 scores were -1, +4, -1, -1, -1, +2, -2, -1. So aside from 2007 where he averaged +2.5 on the front nine Lefty looks like an awesome pick to win with Villegas averaging +3.5 on the front 9’s and +2 in the first round compared to Mickelson’s averages of -0.6 overall and -0.1 in the first round.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
4) Shakhtar Donetsk play in the Ukrainian Premiere League and have notched 12 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses. In the UEFA Cup they have played two home matches, one a 2-0 win over CSKA Moscow and the other a 2-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur. In December the traveled to Spain and defeated Barcelona 3-2, avenging an earlier home defeat. In their previous home match in the Champions League they defeated FC Basel 5-0. All in all Shakhtar are 4-0-2 (W-D-L) at home in UEFA Cup and Champions League matches, with 12 goals scored and 3 goals against. They will be missing Igor Duljaj who has played well for them in the UEFA Cup but has also been a substitute or missing from some of their more impressive Champions League victories. Olympique Marseille play in the French Lige 1. They have 16 wins, 10 draws, and 4 losses domestically. In the UEFA Cup they squeaked past Twente Enschede after a shoot out and only managed to defeat Ajax Amsterdam with an extra-time goal. They will be missing strikers Brandao and Wiltord. Brandao was recently signed away from Shakhtar Donetsk and has come on well for Marseille with a goal in each of Marseille’s previous two domestic matches. Marseille are 2-1-3 in UEFA Cup and Champions League away matches with 5 goals scored and 7 goals against. Odds makers have Shakhtar Donetsk winning at +100, Marseille winning at +250 and a draw at +225.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) Hamburg SV are riddled with injuries at the moment and are having difficulty putting together a full 14 man squad. Mladen Petric is fully fit, however, and if Guerrero is able to play that would but Hamburg’s top two goal scorers on the pitch. Ivica Olic is also a probable starter. Petric is Hamburg SV’s leading goal scorer in domestic play and Olic is the leading scorer in UEFA Cup play with 7 goals overall, 5 goals in the past 5 matches, and at least one goal in 4 of the past 5. Manchester City will be without defender Vincent Kompany and midfielder Nigel De Jong. Manchester is a +280 to +300 underdog with a draw at +225 odds. Hamburg has even odds placed on them and some books have them as -120 favorites.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
10) Parra has done well against the Giants, pitching in 5 games in 2008 and 2007 with an ERA of 2.95. At AT&T Park Parra has pitched 102/3 innings with 3 earned runs allowed for a ERA of 2.53. Parra is 2-0 in his starts against the Giants. Cain has pitched 13 innings against the Brewers with an ERA of 5.54. At AT&T Park his ERA against the Brewers was 4.50 in one game which the Giants lost.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
11) Ottawa is riding a 9 game home winning streak and have won their last 3 overall. New Jersey is 3-6-1 in their last 10 games and 1-3-1 on the road recently. Ottawa is 0-2-1 against New Jersey this season with all three losses coming against Clemmensen in net for the Devils. It is likely to be Brodeur in net for the Devils in this game facing off against Alex Auld. Ottawa is a slight favorite on the money lines.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
13) Dallas is 2-6-2 in their last 10 games and 1-3-1 on the road recently. They have scored an average of 2.8 goals in their past 5 games while allowing 3.2 goals. Against Colorado this season they are 1-2-0 against the Avalanche this season with the lone win being in a shootout at home. Colorado are even worse lately going 1-7-2 in their last 10 games and 1-4-0 at home recently. They have lost their past 4 games at home as they recently went through an 8 game losing streak. Their past two games have shown a return to form, however. They won at Vancouver 4-1 against Roberto Luongo and a team who had been undefeated in regulation in their last 12 home games. They then lost in San Jose in a shootout. Budaj will start for the Avalanche while Matt Climie is probable to start for Dallas before he returns to the minor leagues.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
15) Kobe Bryant has won this prop in the previous three meetings with the Denver Nuggets this season. The first two matchups were in November and Andrew Bynum was playing. Kobe won 33-17 and 29-20. The third matchup was in February with Bynum out and Kobe won 29-24. Andrew Bynum is reported to be returning to the lineup for this game which could make it much more difficult for Anthony collect rebounds or score. Another scenario is that the Lakers attempt to involve Bynum in the offense immediately, maximizing his touches on each possession leading to Bryant shooting fewer shots and scoring fewer points. I will take Bryant to score more points against a Nuggets team that allows over 100 points per game.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
My second pick was the Red Sox over the Rays. This time the Rays struck first with Iwamura scoring after Youkilis committed an error on a throw to second. Youkilis was trying to throw out Bartlett but the ball bounced off Bartlett’s back and into left field, allowing the run to score. Youkilis made up for it in the bottom of the 3rd when he drove in Pedroia to tie the score at 1-1. In the 5th inning the Rays finally figured out Lester’s stuff. There was a bunt single RBI, SS-2B-3B double play that left the runner at 3B safe to cross home and a Carlos Pena two run homer, his first hit this season.
Evan Longoria extended the lead to 6-1 with a solo home run in the 8th inning. The Red Sox had an aborted comeback attempt in the bottom of the inning. Bay hit an RBI double and Howell hit the next batter with a pitch to load the bases with the tying run coming up to bat. Howell saved the inning with a strikeout leaving all three runners stranded. The Rays got another run in the 9th inning and Grant Balfour retired the Sox 1-2-3 to finish them off. Tampa Bay won at Fenway 7-2. So on to the picks of another day.
1) Ian Woosnam vs. Chez Reavie – Reavie cards a lower front 9 score
2) South Africa vs. Australia – South Africa
3) Camilo Villegas vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower front 9 score
4) Olympique Marseille @ Shakhtar Donetsk – Shakhtar Donetsk win
5) Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
6) Tiger Woods vs. Stewart Cink or Jeev Singh – Woods cards a lower 1st round score
7) Cleveland Indians @ Texas Rangers – Texas
8) Manchester City @ Hamburg SV – Hamburg SV win
9) Bemidji State vs. Miami (OH) – Bemidji State
10) Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants – Milwaukee
11) New Jersey Devils @ Ottawa Senators – Ottawa
12) Vermont vs. Boston University – Boston University
13) Dallas Stars @ Colorado Avalanche – Colorado
14) Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
15) Carmelo Anthony vs. Kobe Bryant – Bryant pts.
Analysis
1) Ian Woosnam has played in 20 Masters Tournaments in his career, winning his fourth in 1991. Recently he has not been as successful, finishing 44th last year, and missing the cut from 2001 to 2006. He finished 40th in 2000. This is Chez Reavie’s 2nd Masters, with his only other appearance being in 2002 where he missed the cut with a score of +16. On the front 9 Reavie did not do too terribly, however, scoring +2 in the first round and +3 in the second. Woosnam’s front 9 scores from 2001-2006/2008 are: +1, -1, +2, +3, +3, E, +3, +4, +2, +1, +2, +1, +5, +2, E, and +4. Woosnam’s average and median score is +2, while Reavie’s average and median score is +2.5. As far as 1st round front nines Woosnam has carded: +1, +3, +3, +2, +2, +5, E. Average: +2.29, median: +2. Reavie’s first round average and median is +2. Reavie won the RBC Canadian Open last year. Past winners at the RBC include Jim Furyk, Vijay Singh, and Tiger Woods. Reavie made $1.4 million on the PGA Tour in 2008 and finished 71st on the money list but played in 30 events. Ian Woosnam made just over $200,000 on the Champions Tour (for golfers over 50 years old) and finished 66th on the money list, but only played in 9 of 29 events.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Villegas’ front 9 scores in 2008 and 2007 were: +1, +4, +3, +6. His first round front 9 scores are +1 and +3. Mickelson has played in 16 Masters before, and from 2008-2001 he has scored: -1, -3, +1, E, +4, +2, E, +4, -1, -1, -2, -2 (won in ‘06), -1, +1, -2, -1, -1, E, -3, +2 (won in ’04), +2, -4, +1, -1, -2, -1, -2, E, -1, -3, -2, -2. Mickelson’s first round front 9 scores were -1, +4, -1, -1, -1, +2, -2, -1. So aside from 2007 where he averaged +2.5 on the front nine Lefty looks like an awesome pick to win with Villegas averaging +3.5 on the front 9’s and +2 in the first round compared to Mickelson’s averages of -0.6 overall and -0.1 in the first round.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
4) Shakhtar Donetsk play in the Ukrainian Premiere League and have notched 12 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses. In the UEFA Cup they have played two home matches, one a 2-0 win over CSKA Moscow and the other a 2-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur. In December the traveled to Spain and defeated Barcelona 3-2, avenging an earlier home defeat. In their previous home match in the Champions League they defeated FC Basel 5-0. All in all Shakhtar are 4-0-2 (W-D-L) at home in UEFA Cup and Champions League matches, with 12 goals scored and 3 goals against. They will be missing Igor Duljaj who has played well for them in the UEFA Cup but has also been a substitute or missing from some of their more impressive Champions League victories. Olympique Marseille play in the French Lige 1. They have 16 wins, 10 draws, and 4 losses domestically. In the UEFA Cup they squeaked past Twente Enschede after a shoot out and only managed to defeat Ajax Amsterdam with an extra-time goal. They will be missing strikers Brandao and Wiltord. Brandao was recently signed away from Shakhtar Donetsk and has come on well for Marseille with a goal in each of Marseille’s previous two domestic matches. Marseille are 2-1-3 in UEFA Cup and Champions League away matches with 5 goals scored and 7 goals against. Odds makers have Shakhtar Donetsk winning at +100, Marseille winning at +250 and a draw at +225.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) Hamburg SV are riddled with injuries at the moment and are having difficulty putting together a full 14 man squad. Mladen Petric is fully fit, however, and if Guerrero is able to play that would but Hamburg’s top two goal scorers on the pitch. Ivica Olic is also a probable starter. Petric is Hamburg SV’s leading goal scorer in domestic play and Olic is the leading scorer in UEFA Cup play with 7 goals overall, 5 goals in the past 5 matches, and at least one goal in 4 of the past 5. Manchester City will be without defender Vincent Kompany and midfielder Nigel De Jong. Manchester is a +280 to +300 underdog with a draw at +225 odds. Hamburg has even odds placed on them and some books have them as -120 favorites.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
10) Parra has done well against the Giants, pitching in 5 games in 2008 and 2007 with an ERA of 2.95. At AT&T Park Parra has pitched 102/3 innings with 3 earned runs allowed for a ERA of 2.53. Parra is 2-0 in his starts against the Giants. Cain has pitched 13 innings against the Brewers with an ERA of 5.54. At AT&T Park his ERA against the Brewers was 4.50 in one game which the Giants lost.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
11) Ottawa is riding a 9 game home winning streak and have won their last 3 overall. New Jersey is 3-6-1 in their last 10 games and 1-3-1 on the road recently. Ottawa is 0-2-1 against New Jersey this season with all three losses coming against Clemmensen in net for the Devils. It is likely to be Brodeur in net for the Devils in this game facing off against Alex Auld. Ottawa is a slight favorite on the money lines.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
13) Dallas is 2-6-2 in their last 10 games and 1-3-1 on the road recently. They have scored an average of 2.8 goals in their past 5 games while allowing 3.2 goals. Against Colorado this season they are 1-2-0 against the Avalanche this season with the lone win being in a shootout at home. Colorado are even worse lately going 1-7-2 in their last 10 games and 1-4-0 at home recently. They have lost their past 4 games at home as they recently went through an 8 game losing streak. Their past two games have shown a return to form, however. They won at Vancouver 4-1 against Roberto Luongo and a team who had been undefeated in regulation in their last 12 home games. They then lost in San Jose in a shootout. Budaj will start for the Avalanche while Matt Climie is probable to start for Dallas before he returns to the minor leagues.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
15) Kobe Bryant has won this prop in the previous three meetings with the Denver Nuggets this season. The first two matchups were in November and Andrew Bynum was playing. Kobe won 33-17 and 29-20. The third matchup was in February with Bynum out and Kobe won 29-24. Andrew Bynum is reported to be returning to the lineup for this game which could make it much more difficult for Anthony collect rebounds or score. Another scenario is that the Lakers attempt to involve Bynum in the offense immediately, maximizing his touches on each possession leading to Bryant shooting fewer shots and scoring fewer points. I will take Bryant to score more points against a Nuggets team that allows over 100 points per game.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
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