April 11th, 2009 Picks

Sweet, 2-0-0 today bringing my streak to 5. My first pick was Ian Poulter to score lower than Tom Watson and Steve Wilson. Steve Wilson took the early one stroke lead with a birdie on the 2^nd hole. Wilson gave the lead back by taking a bogey on the par-3 4^th hole. Watson and Wilson were the next to deviate from par with bogeys on the 5^th hole giving Ian Poulter a one stroke lead. On the 7^th hole Poulter went to one over par as he and Watson both took a bogey. Poulter and Wilson were tied going into the 9^th hole with Watson down a stroke. Wilson hit a bogey while Poulter hit a birdie and Poulter took the prop by two strokes while finishing at even par for the front 9.

My next pick was the St. Louis Blues at home. They took a 2-0 lead after the first period, converting 2 of 3 power plays and and limiting Columbus to 5 shots on goal. Columbus scored four minutes in to the second period but St. Louis was able to get a goal back four minutes later. The third period went scoreless and the Blues picked up a 3-1 victory to clinch a playoff spot. Columbus took 17 shots on goal for the entire game and had zero power play opportunities. St. Louis spent two minutes in the box and converted a third of their power plays. So on to the picks.

1) Hull City @ Middlesbrough – Hull City win or draw
2) Ryuji Imada vs. Stuart Appleby – Imada cards a lower front 9 score
3) Carolina Hurricanes @ New Jersey Devils – Carolina
4) Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Indians – Toronto
5) How many holes under par will Tiger Woods card: 5 or more or 4 or less – 4 or less
6) Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds – Cincinnati
7) Geoff Ogilvy vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower front 9 score
8) Chad Campbell vs. Kenny Perry – Campbell cards a lower third round score
9) Boston Bruins @ Buffalo Sabres – Buffalo
10) Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards – Busch places lower
11) Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
12) New York Mets @ Florida Marlins – Florida
13) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Montreal Canadiens – Montreal
14) Ottawa Senators @ Toronto Maple Leafs – Toronto
15) Boston University vs. Miami(OH) – 6 goals or more
16) Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves – Minnesota
17) San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres – San Diego
18) Chivas USA @ Los Angeles Galaxy – Chivas USA

Analysis
1) Aside from defeating a distracted and resting Liverpool in February Middlesbrough have not won a match at home since defeating Manchester City in October of 2008 and Manchester City are easily one of the worst road teams in the English Premier. Don’t put too much stock in that win at home versus Liverpool, Hull City played Chelsea to a 0-0 draw at Anfield around the same time. A lot of top 5 English Premier teams underperformed from the middle of February to the beginning of March because of the attention paid to European competition. Every year teams are trying to avoid relegation and lose 2 points or all 3 at home in must win matches against ‘relatively weak sides’. And every year three clubs are relegated. Here is what tells me Hull City is the best bet here. Hull City hasn’t lost a game on the road this season to anyone lower than 10^th in the tables. They have collected more points on the road than they have at home, 20 to 14. Hull City are 7^th place in the Premier League in terms of points earned on the road. Middlesbrough have lost and drawn to far worse road sides, e.g. Portsmouth D 1-1, West Brom L 0-1, Newcastle United D 0-0, Sunderland D 1-1, Bolton Wanderers L 1-3. Check these teams’ road records, they are not performing as well on the road as Hull City.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

2) Ryuji Imada finished 13^th on the money list last year and Stuart Appleby finished 22^nd. Imada did play in two more events but won an average of $12,000 more per event. He had two event wins and two other top 5 finishes compared to Appleby finishing in the top 5 twice. In this year’s Masters Imada carded a lower front 9 score by one stroke in the first round and by two strokes in the second round. In the past 8 years Appleby has never improved his front 9 score from the 2^nd round to the 3^rd round at Augusta. I think Appleby will score anywhere from 2 under to 2 over which I think is generous since 2 under would be an improvement. I also think Imada will score from 3 under to 2 over which would be a four stroke slide. With each score in that range being equally probable Imada has a 50% chance of winning, Appleby has a 33% chance of winning and there is a 17% chance they score the same. I think Imada is a better golfer at this point in their careers and that will overcome Appleby’s experience at Augusta.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

3) Carolina is 9-1-0 in their last 10 games and 3-2-0 in their last 5 on the road. New Jersey is 3-6-1 in their last 10 games and 2-1-1 in their last 5 at home. During that time Martin Brodeur has started each game. He has a 3.3 GAA and has made saves on 88.9% of shots on goal in those 10 games. Cam Ward will not be starting tonight for Carolina, with Mike Leighton taking the net in his place. Leighton has 18 starts on the season and a 2.91 GAA with saves on 90% of the shots taken at him. New Jersey are favored at -120 in Vegas and Carolina is at even odds.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

8) Kenny Perry hasn’t played in the Masters since 2005. This is his 9^th Masters appearance. He’s been cut 5 times and his best finish was tied for 12th with 5 under in 1995. It’s the only time he’s finished under par. This is Chad Campbell’s 6th Masters appearance and first since 2007. He has been cut 3 times and his best finish was tied for 3rd in 2006 at 4 under par. Both of these golfers will probably tank out of the top 10 after today but Campbell has finished higher than Perry more often and more recently.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

11) The Boston Red Sox are -130 favorites with the Los Angeles Angels being +110 underdogs. Home underdogs are 12-7 in Major League Baseball so far this season. Contrary to the listing on the streak board Joe Saunders will be starting for Los Angeles. Saunders is 7-0 in April from ‘06 to ’08 with a 2.04 ERA in over 61 innings pitched. He’s 4-0 against the Red Sox in that time with an ERA of 2.89 in just over 37 innings pitched. He’s 15-9 at Angel Stadium with a 4.77 ERA in 203 innings. Penny is also pretty good in April but the last time he pitched against the Angels he got rocked for 8 runs in 5 innings, but that was in 2007.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

12) Florida has terrific odds at home here being -150 favorites and New York being +130 underdogs. Florida is starting Nolasco on the mound, considered to be one of their best starting pitchers. He has struggled a bit against the Mets in the past, however, with a 6.28 ERA over the past 3 years in 47 innings pitched. He has pitched more innings against New York than any other team and his ERA is higher versus the Mets than any other team. New York is starting Livan Hernandez who has not fared any better against Florida. He has allowed 23 runs in nearly 29 innings pitched. This is Florida’s home opener and being the favorites with Nolasco on the mound should give them the advantage.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

15) The odds on the over/under here are pretty much dead even. I watched the game with Vermont and Boston University and Boston has an incredible team. They were getting takeaways at an incredible rate which will create scoring opportunities. Madore started as goalie for Vermont and he is going to be an NHL starter in a few years. In one of the Vermont defeats Boston U had 41 of their 44 shots saved by Madore. Against Miami(OH) Boston should be able to score more easily and for every goal Miami(OH) may score Boston will up the intensity to score another.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

16) Phoenix is favored by 3 points in this game. This could easily be another game where Phoenix puts 13 different players on the court by half time. Minnesota is a team like Memphis who are just trying to get wins at the end of the season to get a feel for what it feels like and for their home fans.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

17) Well I must admit I’m not too familiar with these teams yet or the pitchers on the mound. The lines have moved in favor of the Padres since they opened last night, however. Currently San Diego are favored at -160 and San Francisco are +150 underdogs. In terms of percent chance winning with the bookmakers’ profit margins being accounted for that is the Padres at 60.6% and the Giants at 39.4%. Here a few pitching stats. Peavy has a 2.71 ERA in PETCO park in the past 341 innings he has pitched there. Last year Peavy was 0-2 against the Giants with a 3.60 ERA in 15 innings and 10 strikeouts and 2 walks. Both losses were at PETCO Park. Sanchez pitched 12 innings against the Padres and had a 1.50 ERA last year. The odds are terrific but Sanchez is a solid starter against San Diego for the Giants.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

April 10th, 2009 Picks

It feels much later than 11:30, 3-0-0 today. My first pick was Chez Reavie to card the lower front 9 score. Chez Reavie took an early 1 stroke lead when he birdied the par-5 #2. He bogeyed on #3 to move back to even par but Woosnam hit a bogey as well. At the par-5 8th hole Woosnam managed another bogey giving Reavie a two stroke lead heading into the last hole. Reavie saved his par as did Woosnam and Reavie carded an even par 36 while Woosnam carded a two over 38.

My second pick was Shakhtar Donetsk. Olympique Marseille would have been happy with a draw in this matchup and were playing a more defensive game in the first half. They took four shots in the first 45 minutes as Donetsk were terrific at getting a foot or head on the ball to stop attacks. Marseille played fantastic controlling the tempo and winning nearly every challenge on lobbed passes. Tomas Hubschman scored off a header at 36' minute to give Donetsk the 1-0 lead.

Without an away goal and down by one Marseille went into the attack more taking five shots in the first 15 minutes of the 2nd half. Some fantastic saves by Shakhtar’s defense kept Marseille out of the nets and Donetsk eventually regained the momentum. Any time they were within 18 yards they were a danger to score with aggressive passing but waiting to take a shot until a perfect opportunity opened up. It’s a credit to Marseille they only allowed a single goal in the second half to Rodrigues Jadson 65' minute. Shakhtar survived another flurry from Marseilles and came out with the 2-0 victory.

My third pick was Boston University. With the odds favoring them to win at -250 or so it was as good a choice as any one will see on the Streak here. Many times a pick with 90 percent will lose because they are only favored at -150 or even be underdogs in the sports books. Boston came out intercepting crisp passes from Vermont and utilizing outstanding stick play to block shots. Boston was up 2-0 at the end of the first period. Boston players were sent to the box 4 times three of which were converted by Vermont. A power play goal by the Terriers square at three after two. Vermont went up on a power play goal midway through the third period and Boston failed to take any dangerous shots on a power play of their own. Seconds after the aborted attempt they scored to tie things up and scored again a minute later. Their defense held Vermont off and Boston University advanced to the NCAA Championship with a 5-4 win. So on to the picks.

1) Tom Watson or Steve Wilson vs. Ian Poulter – Poulter cards a lower front 9 score
2) Tiger Woods’ 2nd Round Score: 69 or lower vs. 70 or higher – 69 or lower
3) Rory McIlroy vs. Anthony Kim – Kim cards a lower front 9 score
4) Maritimo @ Braga – Braga win
5) Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers – Detroit
6) Jim Furyk vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower 2nd round score
7) Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies – Colorado
8) New York Mets @ Florida Marlins – Florida
9) Nashville Predators @ Minnesota Wild – Minnesota
10) Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies – Phoenix
11) Larry Hughes vs. Orlando Magic win margin – Orlando win margin
12) St. Louis Blues @ Columbus Blues Jackets – St. Louis
13) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Los Angeles
14) Los Angeles Lakers @ Portland Trailblazers – Los Angeles
15) Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles

Shouts to nawledge, i dunno, Boogie, 9@home, and Espiv.

Analysis
1) Steve Wilson is the current Mid-Amateur Champion which is how he got the invite to Augusta this year. He hit four over in the first round and an even par front 9 would be a terrific accomplishment for him. Tom Watson is another 50+ year old golfer who won in 1981 and so has a lifetime invite to the Masters. Poulter is the clear favorite. I took the front 9 scores of Poulter and Watson going back to 2001 and calculated averages and median scores. Poulter averages +1.29 on the front 9 and Watson averages +1.26, while their median score is +1. I looked at how they did from the first and second rounds and came up with a range of scores they could be expected to hit within. I assigned an equal probability to each score within that range. For wilson I assumed he could hit anywhere from even par to +8. I took the intersection and unions of subsets that would result in a Poulter win, a push, and a Poulter loss. The result was Poulter wins at 60.3%, a push is at 15.9%, and Poulter loses at 23.8%. I was fairly conservative with the range of Poulter’s scores assuming he would hit anywhere from 2 under to 1 over par and fairly generous with Watson assuming he would hit anywhere from 2 under par to 4 over par. At 60% Poulter is a -150 favorite to win. Actual sports books have him a -275 favorite.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

3) Well, it’s too late for this. I had Kim as the pick here because he has a proven track record of success. Kim had won his first PGA Tour event at 22, his second soon after turning 23, defeated the 2^nd overall world ranked golfer, Sergio Garcia, in the Ryder Cup last year, and finished 2008 6^th on the PGA Tour’s money list. At Doral Kim and McIlroy hit the same score on the front 9 in two rounds, and each hit a lower score on one round. At the Shell Houston Open Kim scored lower on two rounds, they pushed once, and McIlroy had the lower score in one round. With McIlroy not having won a Tour event before I would say it’s safest to go with Kim, even after Kim was two strokes worse on the front 9 yesterday.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

4) Well skybet.com has the odds for Braga a win at 4:5 and a Maritimo win at 10:3 with the draw at 9:4. In terms of money lines that’s -125 for Braga with Maritimo being +333, and the draw being +225. Those are good odds for the home team without the and draw option. Without the bookmakers profits Braga are 50% favorites to win, Maritimo are given a 21.1% chance and the draw a 28.8% chance. Braga is 7-3-2 at home with 15 goals for and 6 goals against. They had a 5-0 home victory over Estrela Amadora so they generally average 0.91 goals at home and allow 0.5 goals. Maritimo is 3-4-4 on the road with 10 goals scored and 10 goals against. Braga has shut out their opponents in all seven of their victories at home but have lost or drawn every match in which their opponent has scored. Maritimo has only been shut out four times in 11 away matches, and only twice did they lose in those matches. They played FC Porto to a 0-0 draw at Porto. Looking at the players who have been called to the teams it looks like Alberto Ze Meyong did not meet fitness requirements for the match and will not play. Still, Braga should be able to win 1-0 as they have never been held scoreless at home, but if Maritimo scores I wouldn’t like Braga’s chances.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

6) In the past 10 years at the Masters Mickelson has averaged 70.2 in the second round while Furyk has averaged 72.6. Furyk shot a 6 under par 66 yesterday which is his best round at Augusta in over 10 years. In the past years he has shot a 68 twice and was seven over par in the subsequent round. He had a round of 69 once and shot a 71 the round after, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Furyk went all the way to even par or over par for this round. Mickelson averages cutting a stroke off his first round score in the past 10 years while Furyk generally adds a stroke to his second round score. Mickelson has been going through a phase where he cuts three strokes off his second round score for two years, then adds a couple of strokes the next two years. He’s in a year where he adds strokes to his round. So if you believe in patterns take Furyk but otherwise go with Mickelson.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

9) Minnesota is 5-4-1 in their last 10 games, and 3-0-2 at home recently, including a 4-0 thrashing of Calgary. Nashville is 5-3-2 in their past 10 and 2-2-1 on the road. Nashville is 2-1-0 against Minnesota this season, winning in Minnesota but also losing in Nashville. Nashville is on the second night of a back-to-back with a record of 6-4-2 in such games. I’ll update later with the goalie situation. Nashville needs two points to stay in the playoff race but if Niklas Backstrom is starting for the Wild it means they’re taking the game just as seriously.
UPDATE: Backstrom is starting, and why wouldn’t he? The Wild must win out to have a chance at the playoffs.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

11) Orlando is favored by 11 points in Vegas, so they’ll either not cover the spread and win by 5 or win by 20 or more. A loss is fairly unlikely except for the Knicks have given Orlando trouble this year. The Knicks have lost by 5, 7, and 4 points this year to Orlando. In those games Hughes scored 2 points in 15 minutes, 0 points in 14 minutes, and did not play in the third game. Hughes had a stretch of games from the end of February until the end of March where he averaged 19.8 points per game. He’s been dealing with injury however and should see limited minutes tonight. If Hughes plays 20 minutes and scores 8 points if the Knicks can avoid the blowout Hughes just might win this prop.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

14) The Lakers are a half game back from Cleveland for the best record in the NBA. They’re coming off a solid victory over Denver last night where Andrew Bynum returned to the lineup. At 63-16 you know they have a good record on back to back games and on the road. The 1-2-3 punch of Bynum, Gasol, and Kobe should be too much for the TrailBlazers to handle, just like it was earlier in the year when they lost by double digits in L.A.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

15) For the moment I’m not sure about the pitchers in this game but I do know that the Angels are going to be playing to honor their departed friend and teammate Nick Adenhart.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

April 9th, 2009 Picks

1-1-0 again. I started off picking China in curling. The small asterisk in the Curlcast boxscores denotes which team has the last rock advantage in the first end, and in every other end afterwards. China and Denmark traded scoring rocks when they had the advantage but Denmark could not capitalize in the 4^th end and China took a 4-1 advantage after the 5^th. Denmark then made a comeback, keeping China scoreless in the 7^th end and tying it up 4-4 after the 8^th end. China and Denmark each scored two in the next two ends and it was tied 6-6 and went into an 11^th end, with China having the last rock advantage. They made good and won the draw 7-6 over Denmark.

My second pick was the Red Sox over the Rays. This time the Rays struck first with Iwamura scoring after Youkilis committed an error on a throw to second. Youkilis was trying to throw out Bartlett but the ball bounced off Bartlett’s back and into left field, allowing the run to score. Youkilis made up for it in the bottom of the 3rd when he drove in Pedroia to tie the score at 1-1. In the 5^th inning the Rays finally figured out Lester’s stuff. There was a bunt single RBI, SS-2B-3B double play that left the runner at 3B safe to cross home and a Carlos Pena two run homer, his first hit this season.

Evan Longoria extended the lead to 6-1 with a solo home run in the 8^th inning. The Red Sox had an aborted comeback attempt in the bottom of the inning. Bay hit an RBI double and Howell hit the next batter with a pitch to load the bases with the tying run coming up to bat. Howell saved the inning with a strikeout leaving all three runners stranded. The Rays got another run in the 9^th inning and Grant Balfour retired the Sox 1-2-3 to finish them off. Tampa Bay won at Fenway 7-2. So on to the picks of another day.

1) Ian Woosnam vs. Chez Reavie – Reavie cards a lower front 9 score
2) South Africa vs. Australia – South Africa
3) Camilo Villegas vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower front 9 score
4) Olympique Marseille @ Shakhtar Donetsk – Shakhtar Donetsk win
5) Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
6) Tiger Woods vs. Stewart Cink or Jeev Singh – Woods cards a lower 1st round score
7) Cleveland Indians @ Texas Rangers – Texas
8) Manchester City @ Hamburg SV – Hamburg SV win
9) Bemidji State vs. Miami (OH) – Bemidji State
10) Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants – Milwaukee
11) New Jersey Devils @ Ottawa Senators – Ottawa
12) Vermont vs. Boston University – Boston University
13) Dallas Stars @ Colorado Avalanche – Colorado
14) Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
15) Carmelo Anthony vs. Kobe Bryant – Bryant pts.

Analysis
1) Ian Woosnam has played in 20 Masters Tournaments in his career, winning his fourth in 1991. Recently he has not been as successful, finishing 44th last year, and missing the cut from 2001 to 2006. He finished 40^th in 2000. This is Chez Reavie’s 2nd Masters, with his only other appearance being in 2002 where he missed the cut with a score of +16. On the front 9 Reavie did not do too terribly, however, scoring +2 in the first round and +3 in the second. Woosnam’s front 9 scores from 2001-2006/2008 are: +1, -1, +2, +3, +3, E, +3, +4, +2, +1, +2, +1, +5, +2, E, and +4. Woosnam’s average and median score is +2, while Reavie’s average and median score is +2.5. As far as 1st round front nines Woosnam has carded: +1, +3, +3, +2, +2, +5, E. Average: +2.29, median: +2. Reavie’s first round average and median is +2. Reavie won the RBC Canadian Open last year. Past winners at the RBC include Jim Furyk, Vijay Singh, and Tiger Woods. Reavie made $1.4 million on the PGA Tour in 2008 and finished 71^st on the money list but played in 30 events. Ian Woosnam made just over $200,000 on the Champions Tour (for golfers over 50 years old) and finished 66^th on the money list, but only played in 9 of 29 events.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

3) Villegas’ front 9 scores in 2008 and 2007 were: +1, +4, +3, +6. His first round front 9 scores are +1 and +3. Mickelson has played in 16 Masters before, and from 2008-2001 he has scored: -1, -3, +1, E, +4, +2, E, +4, -1, -1, -2, -2 (won in ‘06), -1, +1, -2, -1, -1, E, -3, +2 (won in ’04), +2, -4, +1, -1, -2, -1, -2, E, -1, -3, -2, -2. Mickelson’s first round front 9 scores were -1, +4, -1, -1, -1, +2, -2, -1. So aside from 2007 where he averaged +2.5 on the front nine Lefty looks like an awesome pick to win with Villegas averaging +3.5 on the front 9’s and +2 in the first round compared to Mickelson’s averages of -0.6 overall and -0.1 in the first round.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

4) Shakhtar Donetsk play in the Ukrainian Premiere League and have notched 12 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses. In the UEFA Cup they have played two home matches, one a 2-0 win over CSKA Moscow and the other a 2-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur. In December the traveled to Spain and defeated Barcelona 3-2, avenging an earlier home defeat. In their previous home match in the Champions League they defeated FC Basel 5-0. All in all Shakhtar are 4-0-2 (W-D-L) at home in UEFA Cup and Champions League matches, with 12 goals scored and 3 goals against. They will be missing Igor Duljaj who has played well for them in the UEFA Cup but has also been a substitute or missing from some of their more impressive Champions League victories. Olympique Marseille play in the French Lige 1. They have 16 wins, 10 draws, and 4 losses domestically. In the UEFA Cup they squeaked past Twente Enschede after a shoot out and only managed to defeat Ajax Amsterdam with an extra-time goal. They will be missing strikers Brandao and Wiltord. Brandao was recently signed away from Shakhtar Donetsk and has come on well for Marseille with a goal in each of Marseille’s previous two domestic matches. Marseille are 2-1-3 in UEFA Cup and Champions League away matches with 5 goals scored and 7 goals against. Odds makers have Shakhtar Donetsk winning at +100, Marseille winning at +250 and a draw at +225.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

8) Hamburg SV are riddled with injuries at the moment and are having difficulty putting together a full 14 man squad. Mladen Petric is fully fit, however, and if Guerrero is able to play that would but Hamburg’s top two goal scorers on the pitch. Ivica Olic is also a probable starter. Petric is Hamburg SV’s leading goal scorer in domestic play and Olic is the leading scorer in UEFA Cup play with 7 goals overall, 5 goals in the past 5 matches, and at least one goal in 4 of the past 5. Manchester City will be without defender Vincent Kompany and midfielder Nigel De Jong. Manchester is a +280 to +300 underdog with a draw at +225 odds. Hamburg has even odds placed on them and some books have them as -120 favorites.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

10) Parra has done well against the Giants, pitching in 5 games in 2008 and 2007 with an ERA of 2.95. At AT&T Park Parra has pitched 10²/₃ innings with 3 earned runs allowed for a ERA of 2.53. Parra is 2-0 in his starts against the Giants. Cain has pitched 13 innings against the Brewers with an ERA of 5.54. At AT&T Park his ERA against the Brewers was 4.50 in one game which the Giants lost.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

11) Ottawa is riding a 9 game home winning streak and have won their last 3 overall. New Jersey is 3-6-1 in their last 10 games and 1-3-1 on the road recently. Ottawa is 0-2-1 against New Jersey this season with all three losses coming against Clemmensen in net for the Devils. It is likely to be Brodeur in net for the Devils in this game facing off against Alex Auld. Ottawa is a slight favorite on the money lines.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

13) Dallas is 2-6-2 in their last 10 games and 1-3-1 on the road recently. They have scored an average of 2.8 goals in their past 5 games while allowing 3.2 goals. Against Colorado this season they are 1-2-0 against the Avalanche this season with the lone win being in a shootout at home. Colorado are even worse lately going 1-7-2 in their last 10 games and 1-4-0 at home recently. They have lost their past 4 games at home as they recently went through an 8 game losing streak. Their past two games have shown a return to form, however. They won at Vancouver 4-1 against Roberto Luongo and a team who had been undefeated in regulation in their last 12 home games. They then lost in San Jose in a shootout. Budaj will start for the Avalanche while Matt Climie is probable to start for Dallas before he returns to the minor leagues.
Confidence: W3 streak or less

15) Kobe Bryant has won this prop in the previous three meetings with the Denver Nuggets this season. The first two matchups were in November and Andrew Bynum was playing. Kobe won 33-17 and 29-20. The third matchup was in February with Bynum out and Kobe won 29-24. Andrew Bynum is reported to be returning to the lineup for this game which could make it much more difficult for Anthony collect rebounds or score. Another scenario is that the Lakers attempt to involve Bynum in the offense immediately, maximizing his touches on each possession leading to Bryant shooting fewer shots and scoring fewer points. I will take Bryant to score more points against a Nuggets team that allows over 100 points per game.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

April 8th, 2009 Picks

1-1-0 today. It all started off nicely as I finally strung together consecutive wins for the 2nd time this round when I picked the Red Sox over the Rays. It started off well when Pedroia hit a solo home run in the bottom of the first. The Rays tied things up in the third off a sacrifice fly. Boston retook the lead immediately as Pedroia and Youkilis got on third and first base with one out and the Sox batted in three runs with their next three at bats. Boston had a tough time scoring in the next few innings and left more than one runner on third base stranded, but Jason Varitek had a solo home run in the sixth to extend their lead to 5-1. In the 8th inning Bartlett and Iwamura both batted onto base and stole third and second respectively. An Evan Longoria single netted two runs and Boston went into the 9th inning up 5-3. Papelbon had two strikeouts in the ninth to finish the save and Boston won 5-3. Josh Beckett had a terrific outing with 10 strikeouts in 7 innings and an ERA of 1.29.

My second pick of the day was the Miami Heat. It was looking bad when Miami went into the half down 40-30 to the Hornets. That’s right, the Hornets scored all of 40 points in the first half and still had a 10 point lead. The Heat battled back behind the fantastic play of Dwyane Wade, including an incredible assist as he drove to the basket and dished out to James Jones in traffic. Jones swished the three pointer to put the Heat up 76-72. David West cut the deficit to 2 for the Hornets with 42 seconds remaining. Miami ran the clock down as far as they possibly could and Michael Beasley drew a foul with no time on the shot clock.

Beasley went to the line and knocked down both to put the Heat back up 78-74. Chris Paul drove coast to coast and cut the lead back down to 2 with 13 seconds remaining. Dwyane Wade was fouled quickly and went to the line where he missed the first free throw and made the second, giving the Hornets a chance to tie the game. Rasual Butler mishandled the pass on the ensuing possession but managed to track it down and threw up a 30 footer with no time on the clock and two defenders in his face. It went in and the game went to overtime. New Orleans took a four point lead but Miami tied it back up at 87-87 with a three pointer by Wade. David West made a jumper and Dwyane Wade fumbled the dribble away with two seconds remaining. The Hornets made their free throws down the stretch and ended up winning 93-87. Wade ended up getting ejected and picking up another technical after he was tossed. So on to the picks.

1) Denmark vs. China – China
2) Ivan Ljubicic vs. Frederico Gil – Gil
3) Washington Nationals vs. Florida Marlins – 5 or more runs through the 4th inning
4) Chelsea @ Liverpool – Liverpool win
5) Luca Toni vs. Thierry Henry – Toni gets more goals and assists
6) Masters Par 3 Contest: American winner vs. Non-American winner – American winner
7) Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies – Philadelphia
8) Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs – San Antonio
9) Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox – Boston
10) New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds – New York
11) Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks – Detroit
12) Cleveland Indians @ Texas Rangers – Cleveland
13) Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks – Utah
14) Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels – Oakland
15) Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants – Milwaukee

Analysis
1) China is currently 2-5 in this years World Championships and Denmark is 4-3. Denmark’s wins have come against teams with a combined record of 11-17 (0.393 win pct.) while China’s wins have come against teams with a combined record of 6-8 (0.429 win pct.). The teams who have defeated Denmark have a record of 10-11 (0.476 win pct.) and the teams who have defeated China have a record of 22-13 (0.629 win pct.). Last year in the Worlds China finished 3^rd with a bronze medal and Denmark finished tied for 9^th place. China defeated Team Canada 6-5 in that competition and defeated Denmark 8-5 as well. The teams are composed of the same players as last year but the Denmark club has rearranged the positions each man plays. The Chinese curlers do so as a full-time job while the Danish curling club is part time. The article I mentioned the other day says China has a chance of being in the top 4 and making the playoffs while Denmark is a long shot to make the playoffs and “…should finish in the bottom four.”
Confidence: W2 streak or less

3) The Florida Marlins have had their bats cracking against the hapless Nationals pitchers in the first two games this season. In the first game John Lannan had given up 6 runs to the Marlins by the end of the third inning and in the second game Scott Olsen had given up 8 runs. Over the past three years Lannan and Olsen have both done much better with Lannan having given up 9 runs in 30 innings and Olsen having given up 36 runs in 89 innings pitched. That means on average Lannan was allowing one run in 4 innings and Olsen was giving up 1 to 2 runs in that time. Daniel Cabrera has a 4.66 ERA in the past three Aprils and Volstad has never pitched in April but has a 2.88 ERA overall. That comes out to 3 to 4 runs being scored through 4 innings, but with the way the Marlins have been hitting there should be 5 or more runs.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

4) In the past 2 years Liverpool and Chelsea have played 10 times with 5 Premiere League matches, 4 Champions League face offs, and a Carling Cup tilt. Liverpool’s record in those 10 is 4-3-3 (W-D-L), with their record at Anfield being 3-2-0. Liverpool are 5-0-0 in their past five matches in all competitions while Chelsea are 3-1-1 with a loss at Tottenham Hotspur and a draw at Juventus. This year Liverpool are 2-0-0 against Chelsea in the Premiere League. In the first game at Stamford Liverpool won 1-0 after Chelsea scored an own goal. In the second game at Anfield Chelsea’s Frank Lampard was sent off in the 60th minute with the score at 0-0. Liverpool’s Fernando Torres scored two goals on the 10-man Chelsea, one in the 89th minute, and on in the third minute of injury time. In one of the draws Chelsea had at Anfield Liverpool was leading 1-0 after a Dirk Kuyt goal in the 43rd minute. Then in the fifth minute of injury time at the end of the game Riise accidentally headed in a shot in his own goal and Chelsea came out with a miracle draw. Liverpool has been nearly unbeatable at home even for Chelsea, but in this rivalry anything can and has happened.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

6) The par 3 contest is where Masters participants, past par 3 contest winners, and ‘Honorary Invitees’ compete on a 9 hole par 3 course. In the past participants have had their children caddie for them and even take putts on the green for them. Tiger Woods will not be participating and Phil Mickelson probably will. I have not been able to find a list of participants.
Confidence: W0 streak or less

9) Aside from the Red Sox being one of the more heavily favored teams to win in Vegas out of the 15 MLB games being played today you have Jon Lester on the mound. Over the past 3 years Lester has a 6-1 record at Fenway against the Rays with a 2.54 ERA in 39 innings pitched. Scott Kazmir is 3-5 at Fenway in that time with a 2.93 ERA in 46 innings. Kazmir has pitched 19 scoreless innings in three games at Fenway but the Rays are only 1-2 in those games.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

12) Texas are -110 favorites at home making after winning the first game against Cleveland 9-1 two nights ago. Carmona is pitching for Cleveland and he is 2-3 overall with a 4.39 ERA in 28.67 innings pitched. At Rangers Ballpark Carmona has pitched 14 innings over the past 3 years and he has allowed 13 hits and zero runs. His ERA against Texas in Texas is 0.00 with a record of 2-0. In the past 3 years Padilla has an ERA of 7.46 against the Indians and a 1-4 record. At home Padilla has an ERA of 8.81 against the Indians and an 0-3 record. That sounds pretty good for Cleveland but if their bats are missing like two nights ago they’ll have a hard time winning.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

13) Utah has won only once this season on the road against a team with a record above .500, two nights ago in New Orleans. Deron Williams and the Jazz have been fairly dominant against Chris Paul and the Hornets since they entered the league so the win may or may not be a breakthrough games in terms of finding a way to win on the road. C.J. Miles is out injured for the Jazz and Andrei Kirilenko is starting in his place. The Mavericks are coming off an incredible 140-116 win at home over the Suns where Jason Kidd passed Magic Johnson for 3rd all-time in assists. I can see them having a bit of a let-down after that game. It will be up to Kirilenko to slow down the incredibly athletic Josh Howard and for Ronnie Brewer to take advantage of an incredible mismatch a shooting guard any time Dallas attempts to play J.J. Barea or Jason Terry alongside Kidd. Dirk Nowitzki should be able to score easily around Carlos Boozer since the Jazz can ill-afford to move Kirilenko onto Nowitzki with Howard on the court.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

15) The San Francisco Giants are slightly favored in Vegas to win at home after winning the first game 10-6. Last year, in 6 games, the Brewers outscored the Giants by an average score of 8.17 to 3.00, and were 6-0 against the Giants. Using Bill James’ pythagorean expectation and last years’ stats the Brewers have a 90.5 percent expectation to win, but from the score of the last game the Giants have an 80 percent expectation. Yovani Gallardo has a 1-1 record against the Giants with a 7.72 ERA, though at AT&T Park Gallardo is 0-1 with an ERA of 15.00. Randy Johnson is 0-2 against the Brewers in the past three years and has a 17.17 ERA at AT&T Park against the Brewers in 3.67 innings pitched.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

April 7th, 2009 Picks

2-2-0 today. I started out picking Norway which was as close as could be expected. The United States scored 1 rock in the 9th end to tie everything up at 5-5. Norway managed 2 rocks in the 10th, however, to pull off the 7-5 win and remain undefeated in the Worlds.

My next pick was Gaziantepspro to win or draw. Galatasaray dominated the first 30 minutes of the game but Gaziantepspro gained the momentum and controlled the action from there on out. Unfortunately for them Milan Baros scored on an incredible bicycle kick in the 10' minute and they were unable to answer. Gaziantepspro had numerous opportunities to score close to the net but every one of their shots was saved by Martin De Sanctis. Not to take away from De Sanctis’ performance but most of Gaziantep’s shots were directed directly at his chest. Gaziantepspro kept trying to force the ball in to a man further up the field but surrounded by defenders and lost out on many more scoring opportunities. Galatasaray turned those mistakes into ferocious counter attacks, but with the one goal lead they tended to be less aggressive or they could have easily won 3-0. As it went Gaziantepspro had the better opportunities and were putting pressure on to the very last, but could not find the net as they went down at home 1-0.

My third pick was the Yankees to defeat the Orioles. C.C. Sabathia may be a tremendous pitcher with a tremendous salaray but tonight he played like a rookie fresh out of the minors as he gave up 6 runs in 4.67 innings with 5 walks and zero strikeouts. The kicker was when the Orioles loaded up the bases and Sabathia walked the next batter, prompting him to be pulled. The Yankees did well with their middle relief as they rallied back to within 1 at 6-5 but the Orioles had the answer when they blasted in four more runs in the top of the 8th. The Yankees never could find that 6th run and wound up losing 10-5.

My final pick was North Carolina. The Tar Heels simply dominated in the first half as they jumped out to a 22-7 lead. It wasn’t until mid-way through the second half that Michigan State made the basket that gave them more field goals than turnovers. By the end of the game the Spartans had committed 21 turnovers while making 22 field goals. North Carolina handled the pressure well with 7 turnovers. Michigan State did out rebound the Tar Heels 40 to 33 but, perhaps not unsurprisingly, it was the North Carolina defense which was the better of the day, holding Michigan State to 40% shooting on field goals and 30% from the three point line. North Carolina became the 2009 NCAA Champions, downing the Spartans 89 to 72. Ty Lawson tied the NCAA tournament record for steals in a single game with 8 and North Carolina set a new record for points in a half with 55 in the first. So on to the picks already, yeesh.

1) Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox – Chicago
2) FC Porto @ Manchester United – 2 goals or fewer
3) Arsenal @ Villarreal – Villarreal
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox – Boston
5) Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors – Toronto
6) Philadelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Bobcats – Charlotte
7) New Orleans Hornets @ Miami Heat – Miami
8) Chicago Blackhawks @ Nashville Predators - Nashville
9) Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros – Houston
10) Orlando Magic @ Houston Rockets – Houston
11) Angel McCoughtry points vs. Connecticutt win margin – McCoughtry points
12) St. Louis Blues @ Phoenix Coyotes – Phoenix
13) Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels – Oakland

Analysis
2) Manchester United is coming off a 3-2 win at Old Trafford over Aston Villa where Federico Macheda put in an injury time game winner in his first Barclay’s Premiere League start. Manchester United were without Nemanja Vidic and Fernando Rio who, as the Dude would say, really tie the defense together. Manchester United were in poor form but it is safe to say they are still one of the best defensive squads in the world. FC Porto is a greater offensive threat than Villa but I would expect Manchester United to bring their A-game to Old Trafford this time around. Vidic returns for the Red Devils but Rio remains out while injured. Manchester United should be very concerned about conceding any away goals to FC Porto. FC Porto’s four away matches have all gone over, but in all but one their opponents were held under 3 goals. Arsenal defeated them 4-0 at the Emirates Stadium. One fun bit of information: FC Porto start a Brazilian striker named Hulk. The current odds on this are over 2.5 goals at 47.8% and under 2.5 goals at 52.2%.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

5) Atlanta is a 1.5 point favorite on the road here where they have a record of 14-24 on the season and have lost their last 5. The Raptors are 7-3 in their last 10 games including a 99-95 win over the Magic in Orlando. Atlanta is 4-6 in their last 10 games but those six losses have come to Boston, Cleveland, San Antonio, Philadelphia, and Orlando. Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon will be key for Toronto in this game. Calderon can only beat himself and Mike Bibby has little chance of slowing him down. Bargnani has averaged 19.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.3 three pointers, and 2.0 blocks while shooting 48 percent from the field in his past three games. Toronto has already beaten Atlanta once at home, 93-88
Confidence: W2 streak or less

6) The Charlotte Bobcats are 4.5 point favorites in this game. They are 2-1 against the Sixers this season, winning a game at home and in Philadelphia already. Thaddeus Young is out for Philadelphia and Raja Bell is out for Charlotte. The Bobcats have one of the best rookies in the league backing up Bell, D.J. Augustin. The Sixers have Reggie Evans, Marreese Speights, and Donyell Marshell backing up Young. I think the Sixers will bounce back after losing on the road to New Jersey 96-67, but not by enough to defeat the Bobcats.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

8) Nashville is 5-2-3 in their last 10 games and Chicago is 6-2-2. The Predators are 3-1-1 at home recently and have won their last 3 in Nashville. The Blackhawks are 1-3-1 on the road, but did win their last road game, a 1-0 overtime win against Columbus. This season Chicago is 2-2-1 against Nashville and are 0-2-0 against the Predators in Nashville. Huet was the goalie for Chicago in all 3 losses and Khabibulin started in both wins. Khabibulin is starting tonight for the Blackhawks and Pekka Rinne should be starting for Nashville. Khabibulin’s record against Nashville in the past 3 seasons is 5-5-2. The odds on this game have Nashville as the barest of favorites. I like Nashville’s recent home performance against Chicago on the road.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

9) Wandy Rodriguez and Ryan Dempster are both solid pitchers for their respective teams. Over the past 3 years Rodriguez has an ERA of 3.10 in April with a 5-3 record. His ERA against Chicago in that time is 3.75 with a 3-1 record. Rodriguez has pitched in two games against the Cubs in Minute Maid Park in the past two years and his combined ERA is 1.27. Dempster has an ERA of 2.59 in April the past 3 years with a record of 4-1. His ERA against the Astros over those 3 years is a formidable 2.61, yet his record against Houston is only 1-4 in that time. In the last 8 games Dempster pitched any number of innings at Houston Dempster’s ERA is 2.44 and the Cubs have a 5-3 record.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

12) Phoenix is 6-3-1 in their last 10 games and 4-0-1 at home recently. They’ve won their last 4 home games including a 5-1 beating of Vancouver. They are 5-0-1 at home in their last 6, with the additional victory being a 4-3 win in regulation over San Jose. The Blues are 6-2-2 in their last 10 and 3-1-1 on the road, though they lost their last road game in overtime 5-4 to Dallas. This season St. Louis is is 3-0-0 against Phoenix, but had to come back from a 1 goal deficit in two of those games. Bryzgalov is expected to return to the net in place of Al Montoya and Mason will be starting for St. Louis. Phoenix are +125 underdogs and the Blues are -145 favorites.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

13) Moseley is 1-1 against Oakland in his career with an ERA of 7.57. Cahill is a rookie and is playing in the major leagues after pitching for a AA team. Los Angeles is a slight favorite but Oakland should win if Cahill is capable of retiring the Angels batters early and often since Oakland is likely to score a few runs off of Moseley.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

April 6th, 2009 Picks

1-3-0 on a day that could have easily been 3-1-0. My first pick was Switzerland rather than Everton. The Germans were ahead 7-5 after 8 ends but the Swiss pulled off an amazing 4-0 9th end to take a 9-7 lead. The Germans tied things up in the 10th to force an 11th and won the final end 1-0 and 10-9 overall. My second pick was Tony Parker points and assists. It was nice to see both players in the prop have great starts with LeBron going for 18 points in the first quarter and Parker netting 14 points and 1 assist. LeBron and the Cavaliers dominated in the game, however, and James ended up with 38 points on 14 for 21 shooting from the field and 8 for 8 from the line. Parker finished with 24 points but only 4 assists.

My third pick was Dallas. It was a special day for the Mavericks as Jason Kidd passed Magic Johnson for third all-time in assists in the second quarter. He picked up his 16^th assist in the first half when he inbounded the ball with just under 2 seconds left to Josh Howard who promptly made a 71 foot three pointer! The Mavericks were playing alright defense and getting every bounce as they shot 60% from the field for the entire game. Final score, Dallas 140, Phoenix 116.

My final pick was Oklahoma, which was against what I was thinking when I posted my blog. I figured Louisville had made it to the final four by winning on the road while Oklahoma had been winning at home. With Louisville being a 3 seed in the tournament they had beaten the top seeds on the road while Oklahoma had been beating lower seeds at home. Well, I went against my own advice. Oklahoma had a 12 point lead at the half but promptly gave it up in the second as Louisville went on a 20-4 run to take the lead. The game was close from there, but with Louisville up two and 2 seconds to go Nyeshia Stevenson missed her 8th three pointer of the night and Louisville grabbed the rebound to win the game 61-59. So on to a new series of picks to pick against!

1) Norway vs. United States – Norway
2) Galatasaray @ Gaziantepspor – Gaziantepspor win or draw
3) New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds – NY Mets
4) Cleveland Indians @ Texas Rangers – Texas
5) Total Runs Scored vs. Webb SO and BB – Total Runs Scored
6) Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox – Tampa Bay
7) New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles – NY Yankees
8) Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros – Houston
9) Detroit Red Wings @ Buffalo Sabres – Detroit
10) Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
11) Michigan State vs. North Carolina – North Carolina

Analysis
1) Norway is favored in this match with common odds being quoted as 1:2 for Norway and 6:4 for United States. A two dollar bet wins one dollar for Norway while a two dollar bet wins three dollars for U.S.A. This is an article about the Canadian team but the sidebar to the left has a tiny bit of info on the teams. Norway is 3-0 in competition so far and the United States is 2-1. Two of Norway’s victories were against teams predicted to finish in the bottom 4 and one against Finland who ‘has a good chance’ to finish in the top four. United States defeated Germany who is ‘a good bet’ to make the playoffs, and Switzerland who is predicted to finish in the middle of the pack. They lost to Scotland who are ‘an easy pick’ to make the top four. It should be a very close match and either side could win.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

2) Gaziantepspor is 6-3-3 at home, with those losses coming against Besiktas, Istanbul Buyuksehir BSK, and Konyaspor. The match against Istanbul BSK was a game in which they played mostly reserves including a reserve goal keeper. The loss against 12th ranked Konyaspor, however, was with their starters, except for Hakan Bayraktar. Gaziantepspor have defeated or drawn the two teams above Galatasaray in the standings at home. Galatasaray is 5-3-5 on the road this season, with their best win coming against Konyaspor as well. Their other 4 victories on the road have been against some of the worst teams in the league. Galatasaray have a strong squad with 5 members from the Turkish national team, one from the Czech team, one from the Australian team, and Cassio Lincoln who plays for Brazil. When they defeated Konyaspor they had 6 of those players active, including Lincoln. When they defeated Gaziantepspor in a home match they had all 8 active. They have lost to far worse teams than Gaziantepspor with 6 of the players active, including Lincoln. Cassio Lincoln is projected to miss the match, but Harry Kewell and Milan Baros should be active. I would check the lineups before the match and if Kewell, Baros, Cetin, Sarioglu, Balta, Akmen, and Turan are all playing I would seriously consider taking Galatasaray.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

7) In this game C.C. Sabathia is pitching for the Yankees and Guthrie is pitching for the Orioles. In the past 5 years of their career Guthrie has given up nearly 3 times as many runs per at bat to the Yankees, twice as many total bases per at bat and 1.5 times as many hits per at bat.
Confidence: W4 streak or less

9) Detroit is defeated Minnesota last night at home with Chris Osgood in net. Detroit is 6-4-0 in their last 10 games and 4-1-0 on the road recently. Their record on the second night of back-to-backs is 8-5-1 with all of those games coming on the road. Chris Osgood will be playing his second game in two nights as goalie for the Red Wings. Buffalo is 4-4-2 in their last 10 games and 2-2-1 on the road. Ryan Miller will be in net for the Sabres and he is 3-1-1 since his return from injury. Most casinos have Buffalo at -105 and Detroit at -115.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

11) So Michigan State lost to North Carolina by 35 points earlier this year. They were injured, sick, and had no momentum. Michigan State is tops in the nation in rebounding margin with +9.6 per game and North Carolina is 11^th with +7.0 per game. North Carolina commits fewer turnovers than Michigan State and forces more, shoots the ball better from three, the free throw line, and from the field in general. The Tar Heels actually limit their opponents to the same field goal percentage as Michigan State do. North Carolina averages more blocks, steals, and assists than Michigan State as well as coming up empty on fewer possessions overall even with their greater pace. Michigan State will enjoy a terrific home court advantage, but I do not see North Carolina becoming flustered with a loose game being called like UCONN appeared to. It will be up to North Carolina to match the Spartans’ intensity and step up their effort in getting to loose balls.
Confidence: W6 streak or less

April 5th, 2009 Picks

Wow, a terrifically bad day where my first blog pick went through along with the last two with all 8 in between being losers. For my SFTC picks I went 1-3-0. My first pick was Sunderland win or draw. I overestimated the effect of Cole, Bellamy, Collison, and others being out for West Ham United as Stanislas and Tomkins scored their first ever Premiere League goals in the 42nd and 53rd minutes, respectively. Sunderland had plenty of opportunities with 8 on target shots but were unable to convert and West Ham defended their home ground 2-0.

My second pick was Richard Hamilton points. Hamilton got off to a rocky start as he faced double teams and traps from the Sixers every time he touched the ball as well as missing the rare open jumpers he did get. Iguodala on the other hand was on fire, hitting 7 of 11 shots and scoring 15 points in the first quarter alone. Iguodala cooled off from there scoring 2 points in the 2nd and 3rd quarters each. Hamilton eventually started to find his groove and closed the gap to 4 points early in the 4th quarter. He missed a three point attempt that would have made it 19-18 and on the next possession Detroit blocked a shot directly to Iguodala who then buried a three. From there Hamilton was quiet and Iguodala put on another scoring spree, finishing with 31 points to Hamilton’s 15.

My third pick was Connecticut. Michigan State played terrific defense and was also the superior team when it came to transition offense. They forced 16 turnovers from UCONN and only turned it over 11 times themselves. The rebounding was fairly even with Michigan State grabbing one more offensive rebound in total. Overall the Spartans played much better as a team with Connecticut trying to force shots and fouls by playing one-on-one basketball. The Huskies had a 0.5 assist-to-turnover ratio for the game while the Spartans assisted on over 50% of their field goals. Michigan State pulled away at the end and sent themselves into the championship game, 82-73.

My final pick was North Carolina. Villanova tried to play a tough physical style of basketball but North Carolina was able to match it. When Villanova did knock the ball away the Tar Heels were able to track the loose ball down. In general the Tar Heels out hustled them and played better defense. They harassed Villanova into 5 of 27 shooting from behind the arc while shooting 11 of 22 on threes themselves. North Carolina shot only 40% from the field but held Villanova to 33% shooting for the game. In the end North Carolina was too strong as they won by 14 points, 83 to 69. So on to the picks, for now….

1) Germany vs. Switzerland – Switzerland
2) Wigan Athletic @ Everton – Everton win
3) Tony Parker vs. LeBron James – Parker ast. + pts.
4) Norm Duke vs. Any Other Bowler – Norm Duke
5) Kyle Busch vs. Jimmie Johnson – Johnson
6) Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks – Dallas
7) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Florida Panthers – Pittsburgh
8) Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder – Oklahoma City
9) Women’s NCB: Louisville vs. Oklahoma – Louisville
10) San Jose Sharks @ Anaheim Ducks – Anaheim
11) Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies – Philadelphia
12) C. Jones and B. McCann vs. C. Utley and J. Rollins – Utley and Rollins record more total bases
13) Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings – Sacramento

Analysis
2) There are a few injury concerns in this match, though the most notable absence for Wigan Athletic is Amr Zaki who is not injured per se, but has simply neglected to return to the club after playing for the Egyptian national team. Wigan will also be missing Jason Koumas but should have everyone else available. Everton is waiting on a late fitness test to determine if Tim Cahill will play and are still waiting for Tim Howard to return from the United States where he recently tended the net against Trinidad & Tobago. Everton are overwhelming favorites to win at 55 percent odds. The best team Everton has defeated outright at home is 9th place Fulham, while the best team Wigan Athletic has won or drawn against on the road is 11th place Tottenham Hotspur. It would be best to see if Cahill and Howard are playing for Everton, if they are Everton is a very good pick and if they are not it is really a toss-up.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

3) The last time Cleveland and San Antonio played the game was in San Antonio and Parker had 6 assists and 11 points on 3 of 16 shooting. LeBron had 30 points on 12 of 23 shooting. LeBron has had 31 and 26 points in Cleveland’s last two losses to Washington and Orlando on the road and had no more than 25 in their last 4 wins at home. In March the most LeBron scored in a home win was 43 against Orlando and the least being 14 points in a win against Miami. In San Antonio’s last 5 road games Parker has put up 36, 35, 52, 27, and 42 points plus assists.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

5) This race is scheduled to last about 4 hours and it is a 334 lap race. In 12 years on this track Chevrolet’s have won the Sprint Cup race 3 times and Toyota’s have never won. Johnson is driving a Chevrolet and Busch is driving a Toyota. Johnson placed higher than Busch in this race in '08, ’06, and ’05 with Busch placing 37th to 38th for Johnson in ’07. Anybody could be involved in a crash, however, which would obviously put them at a disadvantage.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

6) The Phoenix Suns need to win this game to keep themselves close in the playoff race; if they win they’re 2 games back from Dallas with 5 games to go and if they lose they’re 4 games back and all but eliminated. Dallas must have the same thing on their minds. The game is in Dallas where the Mavericks have won 9 of their last 10. Phoenix is 2-8 on the road in their last 10 with the two victories coming against the Clippers and Golden State. Nash and Nowitzki always seem to bring their A-game when they play one another so it should be a great game but Dallas should prevail in the end.
Confidence: W5 streak or less

7) Florida is 4-4-2 in their last 10 games and Pittsburgh is 6-1-3. Both teams are coming off losses and each team are on a 1 game losing streak, at home for Florida and on the road for Pittsburgh. Florida is 2-2-1 at home recently and Pittsburgh is 3-0-2 on the road with the two overtime losses coming against Carolina and Columbus. Florida’s home losses have also come against Carolina and Columbus but they also lost recently to Atlanta. Florida is a -120 favorite and the odds are even on Pittsburgh. Head-to-head this season Florida is 1-1-1 against the Penguins with the win coming in Pittsburgh and the regulation loss being at home in Florida. Vokoun is projected to be in net for the Panthers and Fleury for the Penguins.
Confidence: W2 streak or less

10) San Jose lost at home to Anaheim last night, 5-2. It’s very difficult for any team to win both games in a home-and-away series. It takes a team like Boston or say San Jose to be capable of it. Anaheim has been on a tear lately, however, winning 9 of their last 10 games, while San Jose is 6-3-1 in their last 10 and 2-2-1 on the road recently. San Jose did win their last two road games, against Calgary and Edmonton. Anaheim is on a four game winning streak. Currently it is Boucher and Hiller projected to be in net for San Jose and Anaheim, respectively. Anaheim is a -120 favorite and San Jose has even odds. San Jose should win this game hands down, but with as well as Anaheim has been playing the past few weeks I think they can win in overtime here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less

13) Sacramento lost on the road to Golden State last wee 143-141 in overtime. Sacramento is 3-7 at home in their past 10 and Golden State is 1-9. Sacramento defeated Denver and Phoenix in two of those 3 home wins while Golden State’s road win was against Minnesota. It looks as if Monta Ellis, Stephen Jackson, and Corey Maggette will miss this game as well, though it did not stop the Warriors from handling Chris Paul and the Hornets. Kevin Martin has been playing on a bum ankle all season but the latest reports from the Sacramento Bee have him playing tonight against the Warriors.
Confidence: W2 streak or less