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Ahhh, my first sub-.500 day of the month as far as my picks go, and the first day I’ve avoided picking any losers! I only got 2 picks in today as the NBA game got off to a late start. I learned my lesson about picking against the player with the higher point per shot total, Derrick Brown and Chris Wright each took 9 shots, Brown had more points from those shots, just as one might expect. Over/under was off by quite a bit, I think if Arizona misses their threes down the stretch, they don’t foul, and under may have won out. I also appeared on the monthly leaderboard for a moment after the Paul victory but fell off again after Penn State won. Just one strong day and I should be ensconced! So on to the picks.
1) Miguel Jiminez vs. Justin Rose – Jiminez cards a lower front 9 score
2) Charlie Wi vs. J.J. Henry – Wi cards a lower front 9 score
3) Willem II Tilburg @ Sparta Rotterdam – Sparta Rotterdam wins
4) Southern Illinois @ Bradley – Southern Illinois
5) William & Mary @ James Madison – James Madison
6) Calgary Flames @ Carolina Hurricanes – Calgary
7) Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors – Toronto
8) Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics – Cleveland
9) Dallas Stars @ Anaheim Ducks – Anaheim
10) Chauncy Billups vs. Mehmet Okur – Okur scores more points
*yawn* Well, as far as Jiminez and Wi go they shot well on the front 9 yesterday and did well overall. The golf matches should end after 2.5 hours, assuming they unlock after the front 9 are finished. So I’ll go Jiminez, Wi, Sparta, and then probably Calgary or Toronto, followed by Anaheim or Okur. Good luck!
Analysis
3) In the first game these two teams played this season Willem won 3 – 2 over Sparta. Sparta Rotterdam had many more injuries than Willem, while in this match it is Willem who has been bit by the injury bug. According to the match preview Willem will be missing Boutahar, with Demouge possible. According to the Willem II Tilburg homepage Akgun, Schenkel, Deul, Mathijssen, and Quasten are also injured, and van Eijden and Demouge are in doubt. That makes 3 of their top 5 goal scorers out for this match, and if Demouge also misses the game it would be 4 out of 5. Demouge is huge for them as he has scored 46.4% of their goals this season. Willem II Tilburg has lost their last 6 matches. Wapenaar will be out for Sparta Rotterdam and he is their starting goalie. Their backup, Cassio, has done well for them with two clean sheets in six games, and 8 goals allowed overall. I think Sparta Rotterdam will win this 2 – 1.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
5) It’s tough to make a pick on two teams one knows as little about as these two. One thing I do know is that James Madison has already beaten William & Mary twice this season, once at home and once on the road, and both by 9 points. This one will be on a neutral court, and while Harrisburg is over twice as close to Richmond as Williamsburg they will have equal numbers of tickets reserved for either school. Both of the games were close and Williams & Mary had the early lead both times, so this won’t be an automatic victory for James Madison.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) Calgary is really pushing their luck going for their seventh road victory in a row. It’s a back-to-back situation for them here as well, and Carolina is a good team. Calgary’s road record is 17-11-2 and Carolina’s home record is 17-13-1. With the addition of Jokinen and Leopold and with Kiprusoff in the net it’s hard to pick against them.
UPDATE: Kiprusoff is being replaced by McIlhenny in net tonight.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
7) Miami has lost their last six meetings to Toronto. This will be their first meeting since the trade that sent Jermaine O’Neal and Jamario Moon to Miami in exchange for Shawn Marion. I expect O’Neal and Moon to have above average games against their former team, but I also expect the same from Marion. Dwyane Wade tends to save his best games for the best competition, which Toronto is not. If Wade scores over 40 points there is a good chance it’s because O’Neal, Moon, Haslem and other members of the Heat are not having good games. If Bosh and Calderon have good games along with Marion it would negate a terrific game by Wade, or a good game by all the Heat.
Confidence: W7 streak or less
8) The Celtics defeated Cleveland at home in the first game of the season. It was Mo Williams’ first regular season game with the team he’d just been traded to in the offseason. It was a close game, with Boston holding a four point lead going into the fourth quarter. At Cleveland, later in the season, the Cavaliers were missing Zydrunas Ilgauskas. They won another close game, but had a 12 point lead going into the fourth quarter. This game is in Boston, but now Mo Williams has truly integrated himself into the Cavaliers as their point man, Ilgauskas is back and playing well, and Kevin Garnett is missing for the Celtics.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
10) Superficially Bilups should win this easily. He’s averaged 25.2 points in his last five games, and 25.8 points in his last 5 road games. Okur has only averaged 19.2 in his last 5, and 18.4 in his last 5 at home. The kicker for me is that Billups is averaging 14.9 points on the second night of a back-to-back this season and 12.0 in the last 5 of those. The only real problem here is that the Jazz have so many other offensive weapons that can step up and score 15 or more, C.J. Miles, Harpring, Korver, Brewer, Millsap, Boozer, Williams, even Kirilenko. So in the end I’ll take Okur. Utah Jazz forver!
Confidence: W8 streak or less
And So It Goes....
Friday, March 6, 2009
Thursday, March 5, 2009
March 5th, 2009 Picks
Well another 50%+ day, but another 3-0 day ruined, this time by a Marcus Camby migraine. I know Rudy Gay had a great chance of winning either way, but it would have been nice to see it play out. I also knew Boston College wouldn’t out rebound N.C. State again. I should’ve changed my pick here in my blog when I saw N.C. State had higher shooting percentages on the season. It’s too bad McNeal couldn’t make his last open three for the win and had his shot blocked for the push. Other than that things went well. I took Sampdoria, which was a great game to watch. Their goalie, Castellazzi, was amazing. Then it was the Sabres, and finally Marcus Camby. I was on the monthly wins leaderboard briefly yesterday and hopefully can get back up there today. So on to the picks.
1) Ernie Els vs. Camilo Villegas – Villegas cards a lower first round score
2) Robert Allenby vs. Boo Weekley – Allenby cards a lower first round score
3) York City @ Weymouth – 2 goals or fewer
4) Calgary Flames @ Philadelphia Flyers – Calgary
5) Tennessee @ South Carolina – South Carolina
6) Providence @ Villanova – Providence score more three pointers
7) Dirk Nowitzki pts. and reb. vs. Chris Paul pts. and ast. – Paul pts. and ast.
8) Illinois @ Penn State – Illinois
9) Chris Wright vs. Derrick Brown – Wright pts.
10) California @ Arizona – 147 points or less
Good luck tomorrow everybody, I’ll try and add some analysis before too late. I’ll be taking Villegas in the morning then under in soccer, then probably Paul over Nowitzki and then under in PAC-10 action. Well scratch the soccer pick, and I think I may take Calgary instead of Paul, but I want to see if new acquisition Jokinen will be playing for them.
Analysis
3) Well, I spent a lot of time looking at these teams’ past results to determine the most likely number of goals to be scored was 2. Then I dug deeper and discovered the reason Weymouth lost 9 to 0 to Rushden & Diamond was because they were playing their Under-18 squad. They had to play the teenagers because they hadn’t paid their senior players for a couple of months and the vast majority of them quit the team. Weymouth has found a potential financial backer now and have some new senior players, but these guys have only played one game together, the 2 to 0 loss to York City on February 28th. So be careful picking this one, the Weymouth team out there will be entirely different from the one who played before 2/21/09, but at least they are (mostly) senior players.
UPDATE: This match has been postponed due to the field at Wessex being waterlogged from melting snow.
Confidence: Does it matter?
5) South Carolina and Tennessee are tied for second place in the SEC. South Carolina is 7-0 at home in conference play and Tennessee is 4-3 on the road. In their previous matchup Tennessee won by 3 even though they had 22 turnovers to 11 for South Carolina. Tennessee had one of their best shooting games of the season that night. South Carolina has forced more turnovers than they’ve given up in all 7 home games they’ve won. Tennessee will probably out rebound them and has a better inside scoring presence. They will have to have another fantastic shooting night to defeat the Gamecocks tonight as South Carolina will have the advantage in turnovers again. South Carolina should also expect to shoot better on threes having shot 40 or better their past three home games. Tennessee will have to shoot over 70% on free throws which they’ve done in only 2 of their 7 road games.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
6) Providence appears to have the same advantages over Villanova that Texas Tech had over Kansas. They shoot more threes (21.4 to 17.8), and make a bit more too (6.897 to 6.433). Tech shoots a lower percentage than Kansas, and Providence shoots a lower percentage than ‘Nova (32.2% to 36.2%). Providence should be playing from behind, which I don’t like since that usually means taking more bad shots, rather than getting three pointers from the offense. I think this will be a lot closer than yesterday’s prop, but with the stats favoring Providence I’ve got to go with them.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
7) It’s basically a tossup when one averages together recent performance overall, at home/away, and season totals, with Dirk averaging 31.5 points and rebounds and Paul averaging 31.0 points and assists. Nowitzki is playing the second of a back-to-back on the road. The last time these teams met Dallas was on the second night of a back-to-back in Dallas and Paul won 44 to 33.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
9) Derrick Brown averages 1.5 points per shot attempted compared to 1.35 points per shot attempted for Chris Wright. Brown is also at home. Chris Wright is averaging 3.4 more points in their last 5 games, 0.2 more points in his last 5 away games compared to Brown’s last 5 home games, and 0.5 fewer points overall. It’s really not leaning one way or the other for either player. Usually I’ll go with the one with the higher point per shot statistic, but here I’ll go with Wright.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
10) These two teams combined for 124 points in their last meeting, which is quite a bit under 148. Even with points added to their projected total based on assists and turnovers the total score I estimate is under. At most they’ll score 146. Unless of course it goes to triple overtime, then the over looks pretty good. I think I’ll take that chance.
Confidence: W12 streak or less
1) Ernie Els vs. Camilo Villegas – Villegas cards a lower first round score
2) Robert Allenby vs. Boo Weekley – Allenby cards a lower first round score
3) York City @ Weymouth – 2 goals or fewer
4) Calgary Flames @ Philadelphia Flyers – Calgary
5) Tennessee @ South Carolina – South Carolina
6) Providence @ Villanova – Providence score more three pointers
7) Dirk Nowitzki pts. and reb. vs. Chris Paul pts. and ast. – Paul pts. and ast.
8) Illinois @ Penn State – Illinois
9) Chris Wright vs. Derrick Brown – Wright pts.
10) California @ Arizona – 147 points or less
Good luck tomorrow everybody, I’ll try and add some analysis before too late. I’ll be taking Villegas in the morning then under in soccer, then probably Paul over Nowitzki and then under in PAC-10 action. Well scratch the soccer pick, and I think I may take Calgary instead of Paul, but I want to see if new acquisition Jokinen will be playing for them.
Analysis
3) Well, I spent a lot of time looking at these teams’ past results to determine the most likely number of goals to be scored was 2. Then I dug deeper and discovered the reason Weymouth lost 9 to 0 to Rushden & Diamond was because they were playing their Under-18 squad. They had to play the teenagers because they hadn’t paid their senior players for a couple of months and the vast majority of them quit the team. Weymouth has found a potential financial backer now and have some new senior players, but these guys have only played one game together, the 2 to 0 loss to York City on February 28th. So be careful picking this one, the Weymouth team out there will be entirely different from the one who played before 2/21/09, but at least they are (mostly) senior players.
UPDATE: This match has been postponed due to the field at Wessex being waterlogged from melting snow.
Confidence: Does it matter?
5) South Carolina and Tennessee are tied for second place in the SEC. South Carolina is 7-0 at home in conference play and Tennessee is 4-3 on the road. In their previous matchup Tennessee won by 3 even though they had 22 turnovers to 11 for South Carolina. Tennessee had one of their best shooting games of the season that night. South Carolina has forced more turnovers than they’ve given up in all 7 home games they’ve won. Tennessee will probably out rebound them and has a better inside scoring presence. They will have to have another fantastic shooting night to defeat the Gamecocks tonight as South Carolina will have the advantage in turnovers again. South Carolina should also expect to shoot better on threes having shot 40 or better their past three home games. Tennessee will have to shoot over 70% on free throws which they’ve done in only 2 of their 7 road games.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
6) Providence appears to have the same advantages over Villanova that Texas Tech had over Kansas. They shoot more threes (21.4 to 17.8), and make a bit more too (6.897 to 6.433). Tech shoots a lower percentage than Kansas, and Providence shoots a lower percentage than ‘Nova (32.2% to 36.2%). Providence should be playing from behind, which I don’t like since that usually means taking more bad shots, rather than getting three pointers from the offense. I think this will be a lot closer than yesterday’s prop, but with the stats favoring Providence I’ve got to go with them.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
7) It’s basically a tossup when one averages together recent performance overall, at home/away, and season totals, with Dirk averaging 31.5 points and rebounds and Paul averaging 31.0 points and assists. Nowitzki is playing the second of a back-to-back on the road. The last time these teams met Dallas was on the second night of a back-to-back in Dallas and Paul won 44 to 33.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
9) Derrick Brown averages 1.5 points per shot attempted compared to 1.35 points per shot attempted for Chris Wright. Brown is also at home. Chris Wright is averaging 3.4 more points in their last 5 games, 0.2 more points in his last 5 away games compared to Brown’s last 5 home games, and 0.5 fewer points overall. It’s really not leaning one way or the other for either player. Usually I’ll go with the one with the higher point per shot statistic, but here I’ll go with Wright.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
10) These two teams combined for 124 points in their last meeting, which is quite a bit under 148. Even with points added to their projected total based on assists and turnovers the total score I estimate is under. At most they’ll score 146. Unless of course it goes to triple overtime, then the over looks pretty good. I think I’ll take that chance.
Confidence: W12 streak or less
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
March 4th, 2009 Picks
Continued my run of over 50% picks correct in March, it must be getting close to St. Patrick’s Day. Went 2-1 overall and have 8 wins on the month so far, but I figure one needs at least 3 wins per day on average to be in the running for the monthly prize. That Michigan State game was brutal to me, they started out scoring at ease. I go to dinner and come back in the middle of Michigan State shooting bricks and just in time to watch both teams combine for one point over at least three minutes. The lesson today: I am not very good at picking college basketball, at least not today. So on to the picks.
1) Inter Milan @ Sampdoria – Sampdoria wins
2) Manchester United @ Newcastle – 3 goals or more
3) Boston College @ North Carolina State – Boston College
4) North Carolina @ Virginia Tech – 156 points or more
5) Montreal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres – Buffalo
6) Phoenix Suns @ Miami Heat – Miami
7) McNeal and Matthews vs. Young and Blair – McNeal and Matthews pts.
8) San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks – San Antonio
9) Oklahoma @ Missouri – Missouri
10) Florida @ Mississippi State – Mississippi State
11) Kansas @ Texas Tech – Kansas has more three pointers
12) Rudy Gay pts. + ast. vs. Marcus Camby pts. + reb. – Camby pts. + reb.
The picks are finalized and I’m looking forward to the day’s matchups. Let me know if you have a question about one of the matchups without analysis. Good luck!
Analysis
1) This is frighteningly similar to the Juventus @ Lazio match yesterday. Both teams are missing a defender, a goalie, and a striker from their squads that played to a 1 – 1 draw at the beginning of the season. Fortunately for Sampdoria their goalie in that match, Mirante, has been replaced by Castellazzi for most of the season and that is who they’ll have in net for today’s match. Inter Milan will be leaving Julio César back home and their backup goalie, Toldo, has only played in two matches this season. Inter Milan will also be missing striker Ibrahimovic, midfielder Figo, and defenders Samuel and Chivu. Aside from defender Lucchini Sampdoria will return the side which beat AC Milan 2 – 1 on Sunday. It should be a wet and rainy day in Genoa so expect the unexpected with a few more goals than usual.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
2) Newcastle United are a wholly different squad than the one which pulled a 1 – 1 draw against Manchester United in the first game of the season. Only 4 of the players starting in that game are available to play in this game. Looking at recent goals scored/allowed, season-long goals scored/allowed, and performance against the top-flight/bottom-rung teams I got that the teams would combine for – get this – 2.503 goals. Well, it’s closer to 3 than it is to 2 so I’ll go with the over here.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
3) On paper these two teams match up fairly well. North Carolina State is a 2 to 3 point favorite by virtue of their being at home. In their game at Boston College the Eagles out rebounded the Wolf Pack 40 to 24, and had 19 offensive rebounds. Other than that the teams were nearly equal in every statistical category. Boston College won with a few more threes and a couple more free throws. Boston College will have to dominate the boards again to win this one, unless the Wolf Pack have a poor shooting night. If Boston College shoots poorly, however, they’re doomed.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
7) McNeal and Matthews are averaging 0.6 less than Blair and Young in their past 5 games. Recently at home, however, Blair and Young have been below their season average. McNeal and Matthews’ points per shot average is 1.50 while Blair and Young’s points per shot average is 1.37. Blair and Young generally play fewer minutes than McNeal and Matthews and are more prone to getting into foul trouble.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
9) Defensively, Missouri will have no answer for Blake Griffin, with DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons doing their best to stop the powerhouse. Missouri has also yet to lose at home this season, and it will be the final home game for Carroll and Lyons who are seniors. Missouri is a four point home favorite in this game, which is kind of surprising to me. It will be a hard fought game and Missouri should prevail in the end.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
11) Some people might think that since Texas is playing from behind they’ll be shooting a lot of threes and have more chances at making them. It’s true they’ll be forcing a lot of threes, and missing a lot, trying to come back. Kansas will have gotten their lead partly by getting good looks at threes, however. I think Texas Tech shoots below their average and Kansas hits theirs. Texas Tech shoots 37.1% on the season, Kansas shoots 39.0%. Texas Tech makes 7.07 threes and shoots 19.07 per game, Kansas makes 6.52 and shoots 16.72 on average. Kansas and Texas Tech each have three players averaging over 1.0 three point make per game, but Kansas also has another player hitting nearly 1.0.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
12) Camby averages more points and rebounds than Gay averages points and assists. In their past five games Camby is averaging more than Gay, and Camby averages more in his recent home games than Gay in his recent away games. Rudy Gay really doesn’t get many assists, that 6 against the Lakers last night are the most he’s had all season. He turns the ball over more than he gets assists. I also like that Camby can get rebounds on the offensive and defensive ends of the court, while Gay can only get assists on offense. Whether or not Randolph plays Camby will get his. Gay has won this prop in their previous two matchups which is why the confidence isn’t higher on this.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
1) Inter Milan @ Sampdoria – Sampdoria wins
2) Manchester United @ Newcastle – 3 goals or more
3) Boston College @ North Carolina State – Boston College
4) North Carolina @ Virginia Tech – 156 points or more
5) Montreal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres – Buffalo
6) Phoenix Suns @ Miami Heat – Miami
7) McNeal and Matthews vs. Young and Blair – McNeal and Matthews pts.
8) San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks – San Antonio
9) Oklahoma @ Missouri – Missouri
10) Florida @ Mississippi State – Mississippi State
11) Kansas @ Texas Tech – Kansas has more three pointers
12) Rudy Gay pts. + ast. vs. Marcus Camby pts. + reb. – Camby pts. + reb.
The picks are finalized and I’m looking forward to the day’s matchups. Let me know if you have a question about one of the matchups without analysis. Good luck!
Analysis
1) This is frighteningly similar to the Juventus @ Lazio match yesterday. Both teams are missing a defender, a goalie, and a striker from their squads that played to a 1 – 1 draw at the beginning of the season. Fortunately for Sampdoria their goalie in that match, Mirante, has been replaced by Castellazzi for most of the season and that is who they’ll have in net for today’s match. Inter Milan will be leaving Julio César back home and their backup goalie, Toldo, has only played in two matches this season. Inter Milan will also be missing striker Ibrahimovic, midfielder Figo, and defenders Samuel and Chivu. Aside from defender Lucchini Sampdoria will return the side which beat AC Milan 2 – 1 on Sunday. It should be a wet and rainy day in Genoa so expect the unexpected with a few more goals than usual.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
2) Newcastle United are a wholly different squad than the one which pulled a 1 – 1 draw against Manchester United in the first game of the season. Only 4 of the players starting in that game are available to play in this game. Looking at recent goals scored/allowed, season-long goals scored/allowed, and performance against the top-flight/bottom-rung teams I got that the teams would combine for – get this – 2.503 goals. Well, it’s closer to 3 than it is to 2 so I’ll go with the over here.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
3) On paper these two teams match up fairly well. North Carolina State is a 2 to 3 point favorite by virtue of their being at home. In their game at Boston College the Eagles out rebounded the Wolf Pack 40 to 24, and had 19 offensive rebounds. Other than that the teams were nearly equal in every statistical category. Boston College won with a few more threes and a couple more free throws. Boston College will have to dominate the boards again to win this one, unless the Wolf Pack have a poor shooting night. If Boston College shoots poorly, however, they’re doomed.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
7) McNeal and Matthews are averaging 0.6 less than Blair and Young in their past 5 games. Recently at home, however, Blair and Young have been below their season average. McNeal and Matthews’ points per shot average is 1.50 while Blair and Young’s points per shot average is 1.37. Blair and Young generally play fewer minutes than McNeal and Matthews and are more prone to getting into foul trouble.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
9) Defensively, Missouri will have no answer for Blake Griffin, with DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons doing their best to stop the powerhouse. Missouri has also yet to lose at home this season, and it will be the final home game for Carroll and Lyons who are seniors. Missouri is a four point home favorite in this game, which is kind of surprising to me. It will be a hard fought game and Missouri should prevail in the end.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
11) Some people might think that since Texas is playing from behind they’ll be shooting a lot of threes and have more chances at making them. It’s true they’ll be forcing a lot of threes, and missing a lot, trying to come back. Kansas will have gotten their lead partly by getting good looks at threes, however. I think Texas Tech shoots below their average and Kansas hits theirs. Texas Tech shoots 37.1% on the season, Kansas shoots 39.0%. Texas Tech makes 7.07 threes and shoots 19.07 per game, Kansas makes 6.52 and shoots 16.72 on average. Kansas and Texas Tech each have three players averaging over 1.0 three point make per game, but Kansas also has another player hitting nearly 1.0.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
12) Camby averages more points and rebounds than Gay averages points and assists. In their past five games Camby is averaging more than Gay, and Camby averages more in his recent home games than Gay in his recent away games. Rudy Gay really doesn’t get many assists, that 6 against the Lakers last night are the most he’s had all season. He turns the ball over more than he gets assists. I also like that Camby can get rebounds on the offensive and defensive ends of the court, while Gay can only get assists on offense. Whether or not Randolph plays Camby will get his. Gay has won this prop in their previous two matchups which is why the confidence isn’t higher on this.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
March 3rd, 2009 Picks
Overall a good day, going 3-2-1 with my picks. New Orleans proved to have too much firepower for Philly with Posey and West having big games. The Sixers played poorly with the exception of Andre Miller and Andre Iguodala. New Orleans improves to 3-7 on the road in the second half of a back-to-back. I also failed to consider what would happen if Notre Dame had trouble holding onto the ball. They led, and probably still lead, the nation in terms of fewest numbers of turnovers per game. I also didn’t expect them to shoot 50% from the line, but that’s what happens when it’s your worst free throw shooters drawing fouls. Once they fell behind by 5 it was over. At least Braga, the Islanders, and Texas delivered. So on to today’s picks.
1) Chelsea (@Portsmouth) vs. Arsenal (@West Bromwich Albion) – Arsenal scores more goals
2) Juventus @ Lazio – Lazio wins
3) Florida Panthers @ Atlanta Thrashers – Florida
4) Michigan State @ Indiana – 130 points or more
5) Chicago Bulls @ Charlotte Bobcats – Charlotte
6) Oklahoma State vs. Georgetown – Georgetown has a greater winning margin
7) Wake Forest @ Maryland – Maryland
8) Auburn @ Alabama – Alabama
9) Indiana Pacers @ Sacramento Kings – Indiana
10) Dallas Stars @ San Jose Sharks – 5 goals or fewer
Analysis
1) Chelsea did score 4 goals on Portsmouth in the first game of the season, and Arsenal scored only 1 goal on West Bromwich Albion. It’s fairly common for those scores to change in the second meeting of the Barclay’s Premier League campaign.
Against the bottom 6 teams in terms of goals allowed Chelsea has averaged 2.0 goals scored in 9 matches and Arsenal has averaged 2.0 goals scored in 7 matches. West Bromwich has averaged 2.75 goals allowed in 8 matches against the top 5 goal scoring teams, and Portsmouth has averaged 1.571 goals allowed in 7 matches. Averaging with goals scored/allowed in the past five games, the past five games at home/away, total goals scored/allowed, total goals scored/allowed at home/away, I came up with Arsenal scoring 1.763 goals and Chelsea scoring 1.603 goals. Basically two goals for each is most likely with Arsenal slightly more likely to score 2. So I pick Arsenal, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it were a push.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
2) Juventus played at Lazio earlier in the season and it was a 1-1 draw. This time around the game is at home for Lazio again, and both sides have roughly the same squads taking the field. The few injuries each have suffered are adequately made up for by their capable reserves. Lazio has more to play for in this game as the Coppa Italia title would grant them a berth in the UEFA Cup next year. That desire plays big in football and should be enough to power them to a win. Again, however, I would not be surprised if this were a push.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
3) This reminds me of a recent matchup, Carolina at Atlanta. In that game Carolina had a 3 to 1 lead in the third period and gave up four straight goals to lose 5 – 3. Florida is a better team and have better goalies in the net, whether it’s Vokoun or Anderson. They should be able to avoid such a meltdown. Florida is 15-15-3 on the road and Atlanta is 11-17-2 at home.
Confidence: W7 streak or less
4) Just the stats here. Combined Romo average points allowed: 130.2, combined Romo average points scored: 127.3. Adjusted Romo average points allowed: 147.1. The adjusted points allowed takes turnovers and assists into account and has been tuned based on past over/under results. These two teams scored 122 points in their last meeting, but Michigan State was missing Raymar Morgan. In conference Michigan State scores more on the road than at home and Indiana scores more at home than on the road.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
6) Kansas State is a pretty good team. Oklahoma State has beaten Texas Tech, Texas, and Texas A&M at home by an average of 7 points. Kansas State has defeated Texasm A&M and Texas on the road by an average of 4.5 points. Kansas State should play a competitive game against the Cowboys. Georgetown had a bad stretch losing to Seton Hall and Cincinnati on the road, but they’ve also beaten UCONN and Villanova on the road. I see them blowing out St. John’s.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) One should almost always go with the home team in the in-state rivalry game, especially when it’s senior night for the home team.
Confidence: W14 streak or less
10) San Jose and Dallas have gone under in three of their four previous meetings this season. Dallas has gone under in 67% of their last 15 games. San Jose has gone under in 53% of their last 15 games. Nabokov might be coming back in net for San Jose, but Boucher is capable as well as both have over 90% save percentages.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
1) Chelsea (@Portsmouth) vs. Arsenal (@West Bromwich Albion) – Arsenal scores more goals
2) Juventus @ Lazio – Lazio wins
3) Florida Panthers @ Atlanta Thrashers – Florida
4) Michigan State @ Indiana – 130 points or more
5) Chicago Bulls @ Charlotte Bobcats – Charlotte
6) Oklahoma State vs. Georgetown – Georgetown has a greater winning margin
7) Wake Forest @ Maryland – Maryland
8) Auburn @ Alabama – Alabama
9) Indiana Pacers @ Sacramento Kings – Indiana
10) Dallas Stars @ San Jose Sharks – 5 goals or fewer
Analysis
1) Chelsea did score 4 goals on Portsmouth in the first game of the season, and Arsenal scored only 1 goal on West Bromwich Albion. It’s fairly common for those scores to change in the second meeting of the Barclay’s Premier League campaign.
Against the bottom 6 teams in terms of goals allowed Chelsea has averaged 2.0 goals scored in 9 matches and Arsenal has averaged 2.0 goals scored in 7 matches. West Bromwich has averaged 2.75 goals allowed in 8 matches against the top 5 goal scoring teams, and Portsmouth has averaged 1.571 goals allowed in 7 matches. Averaging with goals scored/allowed in the past five games, the past five games at home/away, total goals scored/allowed, total goals scored/allowed at home/away, I came up with Arsenal scoring 1.763 goals and Chelsea scoring 1.603 goals. Basically two goals for each is most likely with Arsenal slightly more likely to score 2. So I pick Arsenal, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it were a push.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
2) Juventus played at Lazio earlier in the season and it was a 1-1 draw. This time around the game is at home for Lazio again, and both sides have roughly the same squads taking the field. The few injuries each have suffered are adequately made up for by their capable reserves. Lazio has more to play for in this game as the Coppa Italia title would grant them a berth in the UEFA Cup next year. That desire plays big in football and should be enough to power them to a win. Again, however, I would not be surprised if this were a push.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
3) This reminds me of a recent matchup, Carolina at Atlanta. In that game Carolina had a 3 to 1 lead in the third period and gave up four straight goals to lose 5 – 3. Florida is a better team and have better goalies in the net, whether it’s Vokoun or Anderson. They should be able to avoid such a meltdown. Florida is 15-15-3 on the road and Atlanta is 11-17-2 at home.
Confidence: W7 streak or less
4) Just the stats here. Combined Romo average points allowed: 130.2, combined Romo average points scored: 127.3. Adjusted Romo average points allowed: 147.1. The adjusted points allowed takes turnovers and assists into account and has been tuned based on past over/under results. These two teams scored 122 points in their last meeting, but Michigan State was missing Raymar Morgan. In conference Michigan State scores more on the road than at home and Indiana scores more at home than on the road.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
6) Kansas State is a pretty good team. Oklahoma State has beaten Texas Tech, Texas, and Texas A&M at home by an average of 7 points. Kansas State has defeated Texasm A&M and Texas on the road by an average of 4.5 points. Kansas State should play a competitive game against the Cowboys. Georgetown had a bad stretch losing to Seton Hall and Cincinnati on the road, but they’ve also beaten UCONN and Villanova on the road. I see them blowing out St. John’s.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) One should almost always go with the home team in the in-state rivalry game, especially when it’s senior night for the home team.
Confidence: W14 streak or less
10) San Jose and Dallas have gone under in three of their four previous meetings this season. Dallas has gone under in 67% of their last 15 games. San Jose has gone under in 53% of their last 15 games. Nabokov might be coming back in net for San Jose, but Boucher is capable as well as both have over 90% save percentages.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
Monday, March 2, 2009
March 2nd, 2009 Picks
Well, a pretty nice day overall as I went 4-1 with 3 or more goals in the Villa/Stoke match, Hamilton pts. and ast., Illinois, the Pacers, and Oregon. Illinois was a very disappointing loss as they had plenty of opportunities to take the lead and change the nature of the game. They were outrebounded, and they also turned the ball over too much (17 to 11 for MSU) and shot under 30% on their threes. The one time they had the game tied was the one time they were over 30% on three point shooting. That Inter Milan game was insane! I guess I should have expected a let down after the match with Manchester United. It’s like the Nuggets beating L.A. and then losing to the Pacers. On to another day and on to the picks.
1) Guimeraes @ Braga – Braga wins
2) New Orleans Hornets @ Philadelphia 76ers – Philadelphia
3) Colorado Avalanche @ New York Islanders – New York
4) Villanova @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame
5) New Mexico State vs. Texas – Texas has a greater winning margin
6) Tony Parker vs. Zach Randolph – Parker scores more points
Analysis
1) Braga will be missing their top goal scorer, Albert Ze Meyong, while Guimeraes will be adding a new signee to their team, Cìcero. Cìcero has been playing for Dinamo Moscow, though he was not called as a starter or a sub last year. He was a regular fixture on the Muscovite squad the year before but did not score a single goal. Meyong has the amazing stat of having 8 goals on 8 shots. That leaves 13 goals scored by other members of SC Braga. On the road Guimeraes has never won or drawn against an opponent who has allowed less than 10 goals at home. Braga has allowed 5. Braga has only drawn once at home and has shut out six opponents, all victories. Aside from the draw to Naval 1° Maio Braga has never lost to an opponent who allows more than 8 goals on the road. Guimeraes has allowed 15.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
2) This is New Orleans’ 15th back-to-back set of games this season. The Hornets are 2-7 on the road in the second night of a back-to-back. They’ve won both games four times, once at Golden State then at Phoenix, once at Oklahoma City then at home against Orlando, once at Memphis then at home against San Antonio and once in a home-and-home against Oklahoma City. They’ve split the back-to-back eight times, and lost both games twice. It seems more likely they’ll have a let down after a competitive game against New Jersey and split this back-to-back as well. Philadelphia is also looking as if they’re regaining their pre-All-Star break form. New Orleans is 15-13 on the road and Philadelphia is 17-13 at home.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) Villanova has only lost three times on the road in conference, to a very good West Virginia team and to UCONN and Marquette. They’ve also won some close games against the bottom-feeders, a 2 point win over DePaul, a 4 point win over Seton Hall, and a 9 point win over South Florida. Notre Dame has beaten a good Louisville team, and beat them by 33. They also lost to Marquette by 7 and UCONN by 8. If Notre Dame can shoot 33% or better on threes and Luke Harangody can stay out of foul trouble they have a good shot of winning this game.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
5) New Mexico State went on the road and lost to Boise State by 3 points in a very close game. Texas went on the road and beat Baylor by 6 in another extremely close game. The Aggies are favored by 6.5 to 7 points, while the Longhorns are favored by 7.5 to 8 points. Boise State is a half-game back from New Mexico State in the WAC. Baylor is three games behind Texas in the Big 12.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
1) Guimeraes @ Braga – Braga wins
2) New Orleans Hornets @ Philadelphia 76ers – Philadelphia
3) Colorado Avalanche @ New York Islanders – New York
4) Villanova @ Notre Dame – Notre Dame
5) New Mexico State vs. Texas – Texas has a greater winning margin
6) Tony Parker vs. Zach Randolph – Parker scores more points
Analysis
1) Braga will be missing their top goal scorer, Albert Ze Meyong, while Guimeraes will be adding a new signee to their team, Cìcero. Cìcero has been playing for Dinamo Moscow, though he was not called as a starter or a sub last year. He was a regular fixture on the Muscovite squad the year before but did not score a single goal. Meyong has the amazing stat of having 8 goals on 8 shots. That leaves 13 goals scored by other members of SC Braga. On the road Guimeraes has never won or drawn against an opponent who has allowed less than 10 goals at home. Braga has allowed 5. Braga has only drawn once at home and has shut out six opponents, all victories. Aside from the draw to Naval 1° Maio Braga has never lost to an opponent who allows more than 8 goals on the road. Guimeraes has allowed 15.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
2) This is New Orleans’ 15th back-to-back set of games this season. The Hornets are 2-7 on the road in the second night of a back-to-back. They’ve won both games four times, once at Golden State then at Phoenix, once at Oklahoma City then at home against Orlando, once at Memphis then at home against San Antonio and once in a home-and-home against Oklahoma City. They’ve split the back-to-back eight times, and lost both games twice. It seems more likely they’ll have a let down after a competitive game against New Jersey and split this back-to-back as well. Philadelphia is also looking as if they’re regaining their pre-All-Star break form. New Orleans is 15-13 on the road and Philadelphia is 17-13 at home.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
4) Villanova has only lost three times on the road in conference, to a very good West Virginia team and to UCONN and Marquette. They’ve also won some close games against the bottom-feeders, a 2 point win over DePaul, a 4 point win over Seton Hall, and a 9 point win over South Florida. Notre Dame has beaten a good Louisville team, and beat them by 33. They also lost to Marquette by 7 and UCONN by 8. If Notre Dame can shoot 33% or better on threes and Luke Harangody can stay out of foul trouble they have a good shot of winning this game.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
5) New Mexico State went on the road and lost to Boise State by 3 points in a very close game. Texas went on the road and beat Baylor by 6 in another extremely close game. The Aggies are favored by 6.5 to 7 points, while the Longhorns are favored by 7.5 to 8 points. Boise State is a half-game back from New Mexico State in the WAC. Baylor is three games behind Texas in the Big 12.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
Sunday, March 1, 2009
March 1st, 2009 Picks
Well, it was an up and down day for me yesterday that ended mostly down. Utah State and Arizona State both went down, the ASU loss was particularly hard to stomach as it was a miracle three that gave Washington State the win. Harvick crashed after looking like he would beat Earnhardt. And Houston collapsed in the final six minutes to lose to Chicago. Ah well, new month, new games, new chances to win some TACOS! And I’d like to thank mnvikings2010 for his NBA insights. Now, on to the picks.
1) Ogilvy wins in first 33 holes vs. Ogilvy wins on 34+ or loses – Ogilvy wins in first 33 holes
2) Stoke City @ Aston Villa – 3 goals or more
3) Final margin in Mayakoba Classic: 1 stroke/playoff vs. 2 strokes plus – 1 stroke or playoff
4) Richard Hamilton vs. Ray Allen – Hamilton pts. + ast.
5) Wes Malott vs. The Field – Wes Mallot wins
6) Stewart Cink vs. Ross Fisher – Cink
7) AS Roma @ Inter Milan – Inter Milan wins
8) Rhode Island @ Duquesne – Duquesne
9) Kobe Bryant vs. Shaq O’Neal + Leandro Barbosa – O’Neal + Barbosa pts.
10) Michigan State @ Illinois – Illinois
11) Jimmie Johnson vs. Jeff Gordon – Gordon
12) Denver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers – Indiana
13) LeBron James pts. vs. Joe Johnson pts. + ast. – James pts.
14) Oregon State @ Oregon – Oregon
Analysis
2) Aston Villa is returning a lot of offensive (and defensive) firepower to their team after the match with CSKA Moscow. Aston Villa’s total goal average for home matches is 2.38 and Stoke City’s total goal average for away matches is 2.85. 53.8% of Aston Villa’s 13 home matches have gone over and 76.9% of Stoke City’s 13 away matches have gone over.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
4) Rip is back in the starting lineup and the offense goes through him more than through Stuckey. That should give Hamilton the advantage in assists. I also see Hamilton shooting well, even against a tough Boston defense. Hamilton has won this prop two of the three times Detroit has played Boston this season. With Hamilton and Allen guarding one another it should be an exciting matchup as neither one is a particularly great defender.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
7) Internazionale Milano defeated AS Roma 4 – 0 on the road. Both teams are more or less healthy. Inter Milan will not win by 4 goals this time, but 1-0 or 2-1 are possible.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
9) With Steven Nash feeding the ball Barbosa and Shaq can score quite a few points, without him they can apparently score even more. A good game for Kobe would be 35 points and he could still lose against two average games for the Suns’ duo, with 18 apiece. Kobe won only once in their past three matchups, against Shaq alone. He and Barbosa pushed in a game Shaq sat out, and Barbosa and Shaq won in the only game they played together against Kobe.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
10) From looking at box scores in their conference schedules it’s apparent that Illinois will be out-rebounded by Michigan State. Their offensive execution will be crisper than Michigan State’s, and they won’t give the game away by turnovers. The big factor here is whether Michigan State gets a significant advantage from the free throw line. If Illinios can make even 30% of their threes and keep from fouling the Spartans they should pull out a big win.
Confidence: W7 streak or less
13) LeBron James has been performing better on the road this season, mainly because Cleveland doesn’t blow teams out as often on the road and rely on James to carry them. Joe Johnson is capable of outscoring LeBron straight up, but it’s more likely LeBron outscores him even with the assists. The stats are skewed slightly in LeBron’s favor because of his 40 and 50 point scoring outbursts, but LeBron is averaging one more point than Johnson gets points and assists over the season. LeBron has won 24 – 9 and 33 – 25 in their past two matchups this season.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
14) Oregon State hasn’t won at Oregon since at least before the 2001-2002 season. Oregon is probably the worst they’ve been in that time, but Oregon is having a low season as well. Oregon State only won by 3 points at home earlier this season versus Oregon.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
1) Ogilvy wins in first 33 holes vs. Ogilvy wins on 34+ or loses – Ogilvy wins in first 33 holes
2) Stoke City @ Aston Villa – 3 goals or more
3) Final margin in Mayakoba Classic: 1 stroke/playoff vs. 2 strokes plus – 1 stroke or playoff
4) Richard Hamilton vs. Ray Allen – Hamilton pts. + ast.
5) Wes Malott vs. The Field – Wes Mallot wins
6) Stewart Cink vs. Ross Fisher – Cink
7) AS Roma @ Inter Milan – Inter Milan wins
8) Rhode Island @ Duquesne – Duquesne
9) Kobe Bryant vs. Shaq O’Neal + Leandro Barbosa – O’Neal + Barbosa pts.
10) Michigan State @ Illinois – Illinois
11) Jimmie Johnson vs. Jeff Gordon – Gordon
12) Denver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers – Indiana
13) LeBron James pts. vs. Joe Johnson pts. + ast. – James pts.
14) Oregon State @ Oregon – Oregon
Analysis
2) Aston Villa is returning a lot of offensive (and defensive) firepower to their team after the match with CSKA Moscow. Aston Villa’s total goal average for home matches is 2.38 and Stoke City’s total goal average for away matches is 2.85. 53.8% of Aston Villa’s 13 home matches have gone over and 76.9% of Stoke City’s 13 away matches have gone over.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
4) Rip is back in the starting lineup and the offense goes through him more than through Stuckey. That should give Hamilton the advantage in assists. I also see Hamilton shooting well, even against a tough Boston defense. Hamilton has won this prop two of the three times Detroit has played Boston this season. With Hamilton and Allen guarding one another it should be an exciting matchup as neither one is a particularly great defender.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
7) Internazionale Milano defeated AS Roma 4 – 0 on the road. Both teams are more or less healthy. Inter Milan will not win by 4 goals this time, but 1-0 or 2-1 are possible.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
9) With Steven Nash feeding the ball Barbosa and Shaq can score quite a few points, without him they can apparently score even more. A good game for Kobe would be 35 points and he could still lose against two average games for the Suns’ duo, with 18 apiece. Kobe won only once in their past three matchups, against Shaq alone. He and Barbosa pushed in a game Shaq sat out, and Barbosa and Shaq won in the only game they played together against Kobe.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
10) From looking at box scores in their conference schedules it’s apparent that Illinois will be out-rebounded by Michigan State. Their offensive execution will be crisper than Michigan State’s, and they won’t give the game away by turnovers. The big factor here is whether Michigan State gets a significant advantage from the free throw line. If Illinios can make even 30% of their threes and keep from fouling the Spartans they should pull out a big win.
Confidence: W7 streak or less
13) LeBron James has been performing better on the road this season, mainly because Cleveland doesn’t blow teams out as often on the road and rely on James to carry them. Joe Johnson is capable of outscoring LeBron straight up, but it’s more likely LeBron outscores him even with the assists. The stats are skewed slightly in LeBron’s favor because of his 40 and 50 point scoring outbursts, but LeBron is averaging one more point than Johnson gets points and assists over the season. LeBron has won 24 – 9 and 33 – 25 in their past two matchups this season.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
14) Oregon State hasn’t won at Oregon since at least before the 2001-2002 season. Oregon is probably the worst they’ve been in that time, but Oregon is having a low season as well. Oregon State only won by 3 points at home earlier this season versus Oregon.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
Saturday, February 28, 2009
February 28th, 2009 Picks
Oi, well 4 out of 12 is even worse than 6 of 13, but a feel a good day coming on. Niagara’s defense was too much for SIena as they missed their shots, Van Pelt had a five stroke swing in the negative while Haas had an eight stroke swing in the positive, and Ramo and Luongo had good games in net. And Chris Andersen with seven blocks coupled with a 10 for 31 shooting performance by Kobe led to the Lakers falling flat as well. That was a slap in the face, for sure. Undaunted I say on to the picks!
1) Rory McIlroy vs. Geoff Ogilvy – McIlroy
2) Ernie Els vs. Stewart Cink – Cink
3) Liverpool @ Middlesbrough – Liverpool win
4) Villanovas winning margin vs. Butler winning margin – Butler winning margin
5) J.J. Henry vs. Briny Baird – Baird
6) Clemson @ Florida State – Florida State
7) McIlroy/Ogilvy winner vs. Els/Cink winner – Els/Cink winner
8) Kevin Harvick vs. Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Harvick
9) Arizona State @ Washington State – Arizona State
10) Texas @ Oklahoma State – Oklahoma State
11) Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers – Orlando
12) Carolina Hurricanes @ Atlanta Thrashers – Carolina
13) USC @ Stanford – Stanford
14) Houston Rockets @ Chicago Bulls – Houston
15) St. Louis Blues @ Phoenix Coyotes – Phoenix
16) South Carolina @ Vanderbilt – South Carolina
17) Minnesota Wild @ Edmonton Oilers – Edmonton
18) Utah State @ Nevada – Utah State
19) Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Juan Diaz -Juan Diaz
Analysis
2) Els has won seven holes with par while Cink has won only three which suggests Els’ opponents have been hitting more bogeys than Cink’s. Els won’t win those holes against Cink. It’s dangerous to pick Cink, however, because he has hit 6 bogeys compared to only four for Els. It’s really tough to pick against Els, but once I’ve made up my mind, it’s made up.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Liverpool is without Torres and Gerrard may be sitting on the bench for most of the game. Still, they scored on Real Madrid at a point in the game where Torres had left with injury and Gerrard had yet to sub into the match. I think Liverpool is the safer bet even though they have not won outright at Middlesbrough since 2002.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
5) Statistically Baird is the better golfer, with a lower putting average, more accurate drives, and more greens in regulation. At the Mayakoba Golf Classic Henry has been hitting the ball amazingly, with 100% fairways hit off drives in the first round and 86% in the second round. He’s also been putting better than he has on average in his career. For all that he’s still only one stroke up on Baird with the two hitting the same score in the second round. I think Henry drops off in this round and Baird maintains, to win by two strokes here.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
7) Hitting two rounds in one day isn’t going to tire these professionals out. If anybody suffers a lapse in concentration at some point in 36 holes I feel it will be one of the younger golfers.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
9) Arizona State is going to want to rebound well from that tough overtime loss to Washington the other night. Washington State has been playing well recently with victories over UCLA on the road and Arizona at home. The AP thinks the Sun Devils will need a good game from Jeff Pendergraph to win and they have been getting them lately. Arizona State is a slight favorite and I think they get the win they desperately want.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
12) Carolina is playing for a playoff spot, while Atlanta is just trying to stay out of last place in their confernece. The Hurricanes have beaten Atlanta in their most recent three games, one of those coming in Atlanta, after losing their first two to the Thrashers. Carolina has been experiencing some terrific goalie play. Atlanta’s home record is worse than Carolina’s road record.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
14) Chicago may be looking to rebound from their loss to Washington in front of Barack Obama. They’re playing a back to back, and Houston is rested. Chicago is 16 – 11 at home while Houston is only 13 – 15 on the road. This is Houston’s first road game since losing McGrady to injury and trading Rafer Alston. The Rockets are really hitting their stride and it will take a terrific game from the Bulls up and down the line for them to get this victory.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
16) South Carolina is coming off an impressive victory over Kentucky, while Vanderbilt has been playing well at home, going 3 – 2 with three recent victories over Alabama, Mississippi, and Kentucky and two losses before that to Tennessee and Florida. Vanderbilt gets most of their scoring from their guards while South Carolina has a bit more interior scoring. The Gamecocks also shoot the ball better from the field. They have more than one big man to tango with A.J. Ogilvy so even if they get into foul trouble they should be fine.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
18) For a team that had the longest winning streak in the nation before their loss at Boise State the Aggies are in meltdown mode. They have been losing on the road and not looking very impressive in their wins. Utah State needs to keep on winning to assure themselves a spot with a good seed in the tournament. I think Nevada will test them, however, and Utah State will win by a few points, if they win at all.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
1) Rory McIlroy vs. Geoff Ogilvy – McIlroy
2) Ernie Els vs. Stewart Cink – Cink
3) Liverpool @ Middlesbrough – Liverpool win
4) Villanovas winning margin vs. Butler winning margin – Butler winning margin
5) J.J. Henry vs. Briny Baird – Baird
6) Clemson @ Florida State – Florida State
7) McIlroy/Ogilvy winner vs. Els/Cink winner – Els/Cink winner
8) Kevin Harvick vs. Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Harvick
9) Arizona State @ Washington State – Arizona State
10) Texas @ Oklahoma State – Oklahoma State
11) Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers – Orlando
12) Carolina Hurricanes @ Atlanta Thrashers – Carolina
13) USC @ Stanford – Stanford
14) Houston Rockets @ Chicago Bulls – Houston
15) St. Louis Blues @ Phoenix Coyotes – Phoenix
16) South Carolina @ Vanderbilt – South Carolina
17) Minnesota Wild @ Edmonton Oilers – Edmonton
18) Utah State @ Nevada – Utah State
19) Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Juan Diaz -Juan Diaz
Analysis
2) Els has won seven holes with par while Cink has won only three which suggests Els’ opponents have been hitting more bogeys than Cink’s. Els won’t win those holes against Cink. It’s dangerous to pick Cink, however, because he has hit 6 bogeys compared to only four for Els. It’s really tough to pick against Els, but once I’ve made up my mind, it’s made up.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Liverpool is without Torres and Gerrard may be sitting on the bench for most of the game. Still, they scored on Real Madrid at a point in the game where Torres had left with injury and Gerrard had yet to sub into the match. I think Liverpool is the safer bet even though they have not won outright at Middlesbrough since 2002.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
5) Statistically Baird is the better golfer, with a lower putting average, more accurate drives, and more greens in regulation. At the Mayakoba Golf Classic Henry has been hitting the ball amazingly, with 100% fairways hit off drives in the first round and 86% in the second round. He’s also been putting better than he has on average in his career. For all that he’s still only one stroke up on Baird with the two hitting the same score in the second round. I think Henry drops off in this round and Baird maintains, to win by two strokes here.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
7) Hitting two rounds in one day isn’t going to tire these professionals out. If anybody suffers a lapse in concentration at some point in 36 holes I feel it will be one of the younger golfers.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
9) Arizona State is going to want to rebound well from that tough overtime loss to Washington the other night. Washington State has been playing well recently with victories over UCLA on the road and Arizona at home. The AP thinks the Sun Devils will need a good game from Jeff Pendergraph to win and they have been getting them lately. Arizona State is a slight favorite and I think they get the win they desperately want.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
12) Carolina is playing for a playoff spot, while Atlanta is just trying to stay out of last place in their confernece. The Hurricanes have beaten Atlanta in their most recent three games, one of those coming in Atlanta, after losing their first two to the Thrashers. Carolina has been experiencing some terrific goalie play. Atlanta’s home record is worse than Carolina’s road record.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
14) Chicago may be looking to rebound from their loss to Washington in front of Barack Obama. They’re playing a back to back, and Houston is rested. Chicago is 16 – 11 at home while Houston is only 13 – 15 on the road. This is Houston’s first road game since losing McGrady to injury and trading Rafer Alston. The Rockets are really hitting their stride and it will take a terrific game from the Bulls up and down the line for them to get this victory.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
16) South Carolina is coming off an impressive victory over Kentucky, while Vanderbilt has been playing well at home, going 3 – 2 with three recent victories over Alabama, Mississippi, and Kentucky and two losses before that to Tennessee and Florida. Vanderbilt gets most of their scoring from their guards while South Carolina has a bit more interior scoring. The Gamecocks also shoot the ball better from the field. They have more than one big man to tango with A.J. Ogilvy so even if they get into foul trouble they should be fine.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
18) For a team that had the longest winning streak in the nation before their loss at Boise State the Aggies are in meltdown mode. They have been losing on the road and not looking very impressive in their wins. Utah State needs to keep on winning to assure themselves a spot with a good seed in the tournament. I think Nevada will test them, however, and Utah State will win by a few points, if they win at all.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
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