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Well, it was an up and down day for me yesterday that ended mostly down. Utah State and Arizona State both went down, the ASU loss was particularly hard to stomach as it was a miracle three that gave Washington State the win. Harvick crashed after looking like he would beat Earnhardt. And Houston collapsed in the final six minutes to lose to Chicago. Ah well, new month, new games, new chances to win some TACOS! And I’d like to thank mnvikings2010 for his NBA insights. Now, on to the picks.
1) Ogilvy wins in first 33 holes vs. Ogilvy wins on 34+ or loses – Ogilvy wins in first 33 holes
2) Stoke City @ Aston Villa – 3 goals or more
3) Final margin in Mayakoba Classic: 1 stroke/playoff vs. 2 strokes plus – 1 stroke or playoff
4) Richard Hamilton vs. Ray Allen – Hamilton pts. + ast.
5) Wes Malott vs. The Field – Wes Mallot wins
6) Stewart Cink vs. Ross Fisher – Cink
7) AS Roma @ Inter Milan – Inter Milan wins
8) Rhode Island @ Duquesne – Duquesne
9) Kobe Bryant vs. Shaq O’Neal + Leandro Barbosa – O’Neal + Barbosa pts.
10) Michigan State @ Illinois – Illinois
11) Jimmie Johnson vs. Jeff Gordon – Gordon
12) Denver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers – Indiana
13) LeBron James pts. vs. Joe Johnson pts. + ast. – James pts.
14) Oregon State @ Oregon – Oregon
Analysis
2) Aston Villa is returning a lot of offensive (and defensive) firepower to their team after the match with CSKA Moscow. Aston Villa’s total goal average for home matches is 2.38 and Stoke City’s total goal average for away matches is 2.85. 53.8% of Aston Villa’s 13 home matches have gone over and 76.9% of Stoke City’s 13 away matches have gone over.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
4) Rip is back in the starting lineup and the offense goes through him more than through Stuckey. That should give Hamilton the advantage in assists. I also see Hamilton shooting well, even against a tough Boston defense. Hamilton has won this prop two of the three times Detroit has played Boston this season. With Hamilton and Allen guarding one another it should be an exciting matchup as neither one is a particularly great defender.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
7) Internazionale Milano defeated AS Roma 4 – 0 on the road. Both teams are more or less healthy. Inter Milan will not win by 4 goals this time, but 1-0 or 2-1 are possible.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
9) With Steven Nash feeding the ball Barbosa and Shaq can score quite a few points, without him they can apparently score even more. A good game for Kobe would be 35 points and he could still lose against two average games for the Suns’ duo, with 18 apiece. Kobe won only once in their past three matchups, against Shaq alone. He and Barbosa pushed in a game Shaq sat out, and Barbosa and Shaq won in the only game they played together against Kobe.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
10) From looking at box scores in their conference schedules it’s apparent that Illinois will be out-rebounded by Michigan State. Their offensive execution will be crisper than Michigan State’s, and they won’t give the game away by turnovers. The big factor here is whether Michigan State gets a significant advantage from the free throw line. If Illinios can make even 30% of their threes and keep from fouling the Spartans they should pull out a big win.
Confidence: W7 streak or less
13) LeBron James has been performing better on the road this season, mainly because Cleveland doesn’t blow teams out as often on the road and rely on James to carry them. Joe Johnson is capable of outscoring LeBron straight up, but it’s more likely LeBron outscores him even with the assists. The stats are skewed slightly in LeBron’s favor because of his 40 and 50 point scoring outbursts, but LeBron is averaging one more point than Johnson gets points and assists over the season. LeBron has won 24 – 9 and 33 – 25 in their past two matchups this season.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
14) Oregon State hasn’t won at Oregon since at least before the 2001-2002 season. Oregon is probably the worst they’ve been in that time, but Oregon is having a low season as well. Oregon State only won by 3 points at home earlier this season versus Oregon.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
And So It Goes....
Sunday, March 1, 2009
Saturday, February 28, 2009
February 28th, 2009 Picks
Oi, well 4 out of 12 is even worse than 6 of 13, but a feel a good day coming on. Niagara’s defense was too much for SIena as they missed their shots, Van Pelt had a five stroke swing in the negative while Haas had an eight stroke swing in the positive, and Ramo and Luongo had good games in net. And Chris Andersen with seven blocks coupled with a 10 for 31 shooting performance by Kobe led to the Lakers falling flat as well. That was a slap in the face, for sure. Undaunted I say on to the picks!
1) Rory McIlroy vs. Geoff Ogilvy – McIlroy
2) Ernie Els vs. Stewart Cink – Cink
3) Liverpool @ Middlesbrough – Liverpool win
4) Villanovas winning margin vs. Butler winning margin – Butler winning margin
5) J.J. Henry vs. Briny Baird – Baird
6) Clemson @ Florida State – Florida State
7) McIlroy/Ogilvy winner vs. Els/Cink winner – Els/Cink winner
8) Kevin Harvick vs. Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Harvick
9) Arizona State @ Washington State – Arizona State
10) Texas @ Oklahoma State – Oklahoma State
11) Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers – Orlando
12) Carolina Hurricanes @ Atlanta Thrashers – Carolina
13) USC @ Stanford – Stanford
14) Houston Rockets @ Chicago Bulls – Houston
15) St. Louis Blues @ Phoenix Coyotes – Phoenix
16) South Carolina @ Vanderbilt – South Carolina
17) Minnesota Wild @ Edmonton Oilers – Edmonton
18) Utah State @ Nevada – Utah State
19) Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Juan Diaz -Juan Diaz
Analysis
2) Els has won seven holes with par while Cink has won only three which suggests Els’ opponents have been hitting more bogeys than Cink’s. Els won’t win those holes against Cink. It’s dangerous to pick Cink, however, because he has hit 6 bogeys compared to only four for Els. It’s really tough to pick against Els, but once I’ve made up my mind, it’s made up.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Liverpool is without Torres and Gerrard may be sitting on the bench for most of the game. Still, they scored on Real Madrid at a point in the game where Torres had left with injury and Gerrard had yet to sub into the match. I think Liverpool is the safer bet even though they have not won outright at Middlesbrough since 2002.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
5) Statistically Baird is the better golfer, with a lower putting average, more accurate drives, and more greens in regulation. At the Mayakoba Golf Classic Henry has been hitting the ball amazingly, with 100% fairways hit off drives in the first round and 86% in the second round. He’s also been putting better than he has on average in his career. For all that he’s still only one stroke up on Baird with the two hitting the same score in the second round. I think Henry drops off in this round and Baird maintains, to win by two strokes here.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
7) Hitting two rounds in one day isn’t going to tire these professionals out. If anybody suffers a lapse in concentration at some point in 36 holes I feel it will be one of the younger golfers.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
9) Arizona State is going to want to rebound well from that tough overtime loss to Washington the other night. Washington State has been playing well recently with victories over UCLA on the road and Arizona at home. The AP thinks the Sun Devils will need a good game from Jeff Pendergraph to win and they have been getting them lately. Arizona State is a slight favorite and I think they get the win they desperately want.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
12) Carolina is playing for a playoff spot, while Atlanta is just trying to stay out of last place in their confernece. The Hurricanes have beaten Atlanta in their most recent three games, one of those coming in Atlanta, after losing their first two to the Thrashers. Carolina has been experiencing some terrific goalie play. Atlanta’s home record is worse than Carolina’s road record.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
14) Chicago may be looking to rebound from their loss to Washington in front of Barack Obama. They’re playing a back to back, and Houston is rested. Chicago is 16 – 11 at home while Houston is only 13 – 15 on the road. This is Houston’s first road game since losing McGrady to injury and trading Rafer Alston. The Rockets are really hitting their stride and it will take a terrific game from the Bulls up and down the line for them to get this victory.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
16) South Carolina is coming off an impressive victory over Kentucky, while Vanderbilt has been playing well at home, going 3 – 2 with three recent victories over Alabama, Mississippi, and Kentucky and two losses before that to Tennessee and Florida. Vanderbilt gets most of their scoring from their guards while South Carolina has a bit more interior scoring. The Gamecocks also shoot the ball better from the field. They have more than one big man to tango with A.J. Ogilvy so even if they get into foul trouble they should be fine.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
18) For a team that had the longest winning streak in the nation before their loss at Boise State the Aggies are in meltdown mode. They have been losing on the road and not looking very impressive in their wins. Utah State needs to keep on winning to assure themselves a spot with a good seed in the tournament. I think Nevada will test them, however, and Utah State will win by a few points, if they win at all.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
1) Rory McIlroy vs. Geoff Ogilvy – McIlroy
2) Ernie Els vs. Stewart Cink – Cink
3) Liverpool @ Middlesbrough – Liverpool win
4) Villanovas winning margin vs. Butler winning margin – Butler winning margin
5) J.J. Henry vs. Briny Baird – Baird
6) Clemson @ Florida State – Florida State
7) McIlroy/Ogilvy winner vs. Els/Cink winner – Els/Cink winner
8) Kevin Harvick vs. Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Harvick
9) Arizona State @ Washington State – Arizona State
10) Texas @ Oklahoma State – Oklahoma State
11) Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers – Orlando
12) Carolina Hurricanes @ Atlanta Thrashers – Carolina
13) USC @ Stanford – Stanford
14) Houston Rockets @ Chicago Bulls – Houston
15) St. Louis Blues @ Phoenix Coyotes – Phoenix
16) South Carolina @ Vanderbilt – South Carolina
17) Minnesota Wild @ Edmonton Oilers – Edmonton
18) Utah State @ Nevada – Utah State
19) Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Juan Diaz -Juan Diaz
Analysis
2) Els has won seven holes with par while Cink has won only three which suggests Els’ opponents have been hitting more bogeys than Cink’s. Els won’t win those holes against Cink. It’s dangerous to pick Cink, however, because he has hit 6 bogeys compared to only four for Els. It’s really tough to pick against Els, but once I’ve made up my mind, it’s made up.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Liverpool is without Torres and Gerrard may be sitting on the bench for most of the game. Still, they scored on Real Madrid at a point in the game where Torres had left with injury and Gerrard had yet to sub into the match. I think Liverpool is the safer bet even though they have not won outright at Middlesbrough since 2002.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
5) Statistically Baird is the better golfer, with a lower putting average, more accurate drives, and more greens in regulation. At the Mayakoba Golf Classic Henry has been hitting the ball amazingly, with 100% fairways hit off drives in the first round and 86% in the second round. He’s also been putting better than he has on average in his career. For all that he’s still only one stroke up on Baird with the two hitting the same score in the second round. I think Henry drops off in this round and Baird maintains, to win by two strokes here.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
7) Hitting two rounds in one day isn’t going to tire these professionals out. If anybody suffers a lapse in concentration at some point in 36 holes I feel it will be one of the younger golfers.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
9) Arizona State is going to want to rebound well from that tough overtime loss to Washington the other night. Washington State has been playing well recently with victories over UCLA on the road and Arizona at home. The AP thinks the Sun Devils will need a good game from Jeff Pendergraph to win and they have been getting them lately. Arizona State is a slight favorite and I think they get the win they desperately want.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
12) Carolina is playing for a playoff spot, while Atlanta is just trying to stay out of last place in their confernece. The Hurricanes have beaten Atlanta in their most recent three games, one of those coming in Atlanta, after losing their first two to the Thrashers. Carolina has been experiencing some terrific goalie play. Atlanta’s home record is worse than Carolina’s road record.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
14) Chicago may be looking to rebound from their loss to Washington in front of Barack Obama. They’re playing a back to back, and Houston is rested. Chicago is 16 – 11 at home while Houston is only 13 – 15 on the road. This is Houston’s first road game since losing McGrady to injury and trading Rafer Alston. The Rockets are really hitting their stride and it will take a terrific game from the Bulls up and down the line for them to get this victory.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
16) South Carolina is coming off an impressive victory over Kentucky, while Vanderbilt has been playing well at home, going 3 – 2 with three recent victories over Alabama, Mississippi, and Kentucky and two losses before that to Tennessee and Florida. Vanderbilt gets most of their scoring from their guards while South Carolina has a bit more interior scoring. The Gamecocks also shoot the ball better from the field. They have more than one big man to tango with A.J. Ogilvy so even if they get into foul trouble they should be fine.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
18) For a team that had the longest winning streak in the nation before their loss at Boise State the Aggies are in meltdown mode. They have been losing on the road and not looking very impressive in their wins. Utah State needs to keep on winning to assure themselves a spot with a good seed in the tournament. I think Nevada will test them, however, and Utah State will win by a few points, if they win at all.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
Friday, February 27, 2009
February 27th, 2009 Picks
Well, 6 out of 13 correct is less than 50, but it’s more than 40. Very tiring day for me today with lots of interviews and whatnot. My morning picks were OK except Fiorentina and Ajax couldn’t find it in their hearts to put it in the goal once in the first half. Damn Vaden also; UAB could easily have won that game without him missing all 17 of his shots. After going something like 10-1 on over/unders since the middle of January I’ve missed the last two! I blame the refs for both of those, in the KSU/Mizzou game for not letting them play hard defense and in yesterday’s for letting them play too hard of defense. OK, OK, so maybe I need to think a little harder on those instead of just crunching numbers. Anyways, on to the picks.
1) Bo Van Pelt vs. Bill Haas – Van Pelt has the lower second round score
2) Luke Donald vs. Ernie Els – Els
3) Geoff Ogilvy vs. Camilla Villegas – Villegas
4) Arminia Bielefeld @ FC Cologne – Arminia Bielefeld win or draw
5) Wales @ France – France
6) Richard Hamilton vs. Hedo Turkoglu – Turkoglu
7) Siena @ Niagara – Siena
8) Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks – New York
9) Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets – Los Angeles
10) Illinois-Chicago @ Loyola (IL) – Loyola (IL)
11) Cleveland @ San Antonio – Cleveland
12) Tampa Bay @ Vancouver – 6 goals or more
Analysis
1) There’s a reason Bo Van Pelt is leading the field at El Camaleon golf course. He hit over 70% of his tee shots on the fairway and reached 13 of the greens with a chance to putt for birdie. Accuracy is important on this course since there is sand/wasteland bordering some fairways, small caves guarding greens, and thick tropical underbrush on other holes. Van Pelt is more accurate on his tee shots than Haas in general. He also putted excellently in the first round, taking the fewest number of putts overall and averaging the second lowest number of putts per green in regulation. Haas will have a difficult time if he can’t drive accurately since he won’t have the chance to gain strokes with his iron play and putting.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
2) Donald has had 6 bogeys in his two matches combined, Els has had zero. Singh had 5 bogeys in his match against Donald and still went 19 holes to lose by 1. Els has experience on his side here and I see him winning 2 and 1.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
4) FC Cologne has 3 outright victories on their home pitch. Both teams are playing very well at the moment. I read the original German press conference and FC Cologne will not be resting many ‘excellent’ players. Still, they’ve found 3 points hard to come by at home and I like Arminia’s chances to pull a draw having won or draw 6 times on the road. 0 – 0 or 1 – 1 seems likely.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
5) France has been forced to make a number of changes to their lineup with many players not having the chance to practice together for even a week. Some of their guys are playing out of position too. France has only lost to Wales in France three times, going back to 1990, however. None of those losses has been by 10 or more points. France has won 6 times in that same period, by 33, 16, 12, 5, 28, and 11. France is the underdog here but they’ve done it before against Wales.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) Looks like Hedo has a home weighted average of 17.7 in his past 5 games versus Hamilton’s away weighted average of 16.0. Hedo also is at 1.25 points per shot on the season compared to 1.17 for Hamilton. Guess I’ll see if that pps stat helps for these NBA props too. Hamilton will be starting for the Pistons with AI most likely missing the game. This one will be close but with Hamilton having something to prove and with Prince guarding Turkoglu. Hamilton will have to show me he can shoot like his championship days before I’d take him here. Oh, and Hedo’s wife just had/is having a baby.
Confidence: W0 streak or less
7) Siena went to Allen Fieldhouse and gave the Jayhawks a good game, losing only by 7. Niagara lost at home once to Iona by 8, they also lost to Marist on the road. Siena is the underdog in Vegas but their past results scream favorite here.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
9) C’mon…. even if Nene were to make a miraculous recovery and play in this game it’s the Lakers. They’re playing great basketball right now.
Confidence: W13 streak or less
11) Tim Duncan is a game time decision for the Spurs which should make a big difference here. Tony Parker will have a tough time beating the Cavs by himself if he has to go off for 30 or 40 points again. Cleveland was embarrassed last night in Houston so they will be looking to get their confidence back by defeating a quality opponent. With Duncan I’m not sure, and without Duncan the Cavs win. See if you can’t get news on Duncan’s playing status 10 minutes before this locks before taking it.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
12) These two teams have not played each other previously this season. Last season Tampa Bay had Ramo in net, Vancouver had Luongo, and they scored 7 goals between them. Tonight Luongo should be in net for the Canucks, and the Lightning will have Ramo or McKenna, both of whom have been giving up goals lately. 6 of 10 of Tampa Bay’s most recent games have gone 6 goals or over and 7 of 10 of Vancouver’s have gone over.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
1) Bo Van Pelt vs. Bill Haas – Van Pelt has the lower second round score
2) Luke Donald vs. Ernie Els – Els
3) Geoff Ogilvy vs. Camilla Villegas – Villegas
4) Arminia Bielefeld @ FC Cologne – Arminia Bielefeld win or draw
5) Wales @ France – France
6) Richard Hamilton vs. Hedo Turkoglu – Turkoglu
7) Siena @ Niagara – Siena
8) Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks – New York
9) Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets – Los Angeles
10) Illinois-Chicago @ Loyola (IL) – Loyola (IL)
11) Cleveland @ San Antonio – Cleveland
12) Tampa Bay @ Vancouver – 6 goals or more
Analysis
1) There’s a reason Bo Van Pelt is leading the field at El Camaleon golf course. He hit over 70% of his tee shots on the fairway and reached 13 of the greens with a chance to putt for birdie. Accuracy is important on this course since there is sand/wasteland bordering some fairways, small caves guarding greens, and thick tropical underbrush on other holes. Van Pelt is more accurate on his tee shots than Haas in general. He also putted excellently in the first round, taking the fewest number of putts overall and averaging the second lowest number of putts per green in regulation. Haas will have a difficult time if he can’t drive accurately since he won’t have the chance to gain strokes with his iron play and putting.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
2) Donald has had 6 bogeys in his two matches combined, Els has had zero. Singh had 5 bogeys in his match against Donald and still went 19 holes to lose by 1. Els has experience on his side here and I see him winning 2 and 1.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
4) FC Cologne has 3 outright victories on their home pitch. Both teams are playing very well at the moment. I read the original German press conference and FC Cologne will not be resting many ‘excellent’ players. Still, they’ve found 3 points hard to come by at home and I like Arminia’s chances to pull a draw having won or draw 6 times on the road. 0 – 0 or 1 – 1 seems likely.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
5) France has been forced to make a number of changes to their lineup with many players not having the chance to practice together for even a week. Some of their guys are playing out of position too. France has only lost to Wales in France three times, going back to 1990, however. None of those losses has been by 10 or more points. France has won 6 times in that same period, by 33, 16, 12, 5, 28, and 11. France is the underdog here but they’ve done it before against Wales.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) Looks like Hedo has a home weighted average of 17.7 in his past 5 games versus Hamilton’s away weighted average of 16.0. Hedo also is at 1.25 points per shot on the season compared to 1.17 for Hamilton. Guess I’ll see if that pps stat helps for these NBA props too. Hamilton will be starting for the Pistons with AI most likely missing the game. This one will be close but with Hamilton having something to prove and with Prince guarding Turkoglu. Hamilton will have to show me he can shoot like his championship days before I’d take him here. Oh, and Hedo’s wife just had/is having a baby.
Confidence: W0 streak or less
7) Siena went to Allen Fieldhouse and gave the Jayhawks a good game, losing only by 7. Niagara lost at home once to Iona by 8, they also lost to Marist on the road. Siena is the underdog in Vegas but their past results scream favorite here.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
9) C’mon…. even if Nene were to make a miraculous recovery and play in this game it’s the Lakers. They’re playing great basketball right now.
Confidence: W13 streak or less
11) Tim Duncan is a game time decision for the Spurs which should make a big difference here. Tony Parker will have a tough time beating the Cavs by himself if he has to go off for 30 or 40 points again. Cleveland was embarrassed last night in Houston so they will be looking to get their confidence back by defeating a quality opponent. With Duncan I’m not sure, and without Duncan the Cavs win. See if you can’t get news on Duncan’s playing status 10 minutes before this locks before taking it.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
12) These two teams have not played each other previously this season. Last season Tampa Bay had Ramo in net, Vancouver had Luongo, and they scored 7 goals between them. Tonight Luongo should be in net for the Canucks, and the Lightning will have Ramo or McKenna, both of whom have been giving up goals lately. 6 of 10 of Tampa Bay’s most recent games have gone 6 goals or over and 7 of 10 of Vancouver’s have gone over.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
Thursday, February 26, 2009
February 26th, 2009 Picks
Well, at 87% correct yesterday I had my best day by far. It still really gets my goat that of the two games I mis-called I actually picked those two games! Out of all the other choices…. I mis-called the Kansas State and Missouri game, it was only over by 16 points, mainly due to the teams combining for 68 free throws. But hey, that’s the Big12 for some teams. Liverpool looked strong as well, Madrid appeared to have lost some of their recent form. A great away victory for Liverpool, look for them to advance into the quarterfinals. And so on to the picks.
1) Brian Gay vs. David Toms – Gay has a better first round score
2) Aston Villa @ CSKA Moscow – CSKA Moscow advances
3) Woods wins by hole 10-15 vs. Woods wins by 16+ or loses – Woods wins on 16+ or loses
4) Fiorentina @ Ajax Amsterdam – 3 goals or more
5) Florida Panthers @ New York Rangers – Florida Panthers
6) West Virginia @ Cincinnati – Cincinnati has more three pointers
7) Xavier @ St. Joseph’s – 133 points or more
8) Cleveland @ Houston – Cleveland
9) Miami (FL) @ Virginia – Virginia
10) Columbus Blue Jackets @ Edmonton Oilers – 6 goals or more
11) Purdue @ Michigan – Purdue
12) Memphis vs. Murray State – Murray State has a larger winning margin
13) James Harden vs. Justin Dentmon – Harden pts.
Analysis
1) Brian Gay won this event at this course last year. It’s a shorter course which will negate some of Toms’ advantage in driving distance. Gay hits more greens in regulation and is slightly more accurate with his drives which is important on this course with tropical winds being a factor. That should be enough to overcome Toms’ fewer putts per hole. Finally, in the three past events these two have played together Gay has had the lower first round score all three times.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
2) Aston Villa is resting the majority of their starters for this match and CSKA already has an away goal. With all the reserves playing for Aston Villa CSKA Moscow should comfortably pull this out.
Confidence: W15 streak or less
3) Woods had a couple of eagles in the first round, which is great, but he also had a couple of bogeys. Jones couldn’t capitalize on that but Clark should be able to. Clark had zero bogeys in the first round, so he would win those holes against Woods. If Jones could go 16 holes against Woods, Clark should be able to as well.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
5) Florida has had a day to rest while New York is traveling from Toronto after losing to the Maple Leafs yesterday. Vokoun should be back in net for the Panthers, but even if he is not Anderson has had the Rangers’ number this season. New York’s coach has been quoted saying his team looks too tired at the end of games as well. Florida bounces back on the road here with a 2 – 1 or 3 – 1 win.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) Cincinnati shoots a higher percentage on threes and has 4 players averaging one made three pointer. West Virginia makes close to the same number of threes and Cincy but have only three players averaging one three or more per game. West Virginia has a good defense and typically disrupts three point shooting teams, but Cincinnati has shot well against other teams in their conference who defend the three well.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
8) Cleveland is on a level above Houston being contenders to reach the Finals while Houston will count itself fortunate to achieve a first round win. Delonte West will be returning for the Cavaliers and they have LeBron. Houston doesn’t have the advantage in many of the matchups, except perhaps with Scola versus Wallace.
Confidence: W9 streak or less
9) Virginia is pretty good at the turnover game, one of Miami’s weaknesses. They’re also at home. I like the upset here and don’t think McClinton can beat Virginia on his own.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
12) Memphis at UAB is a major rivalry game pitting the top two C-USA schools against one another. UAB lost this game by 1 point last year, and Memphis had Derrick Rose. Tyreke Evans is good, but is he that good? Murray State plays in a weaker conference where 20 point swings from home to away games are common. Morehead State is not very good on the road and Murray State is playing well right now. Murray State wins by 15, Memphis wins by 7.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
13) Harden scores 1.66 points per shot while Dentmon shoots a terrific 1.53 points per shot. 0.13 difference is still significant with this stat. Dentmon had his best game of the season at ASU earlier in the year. I think it’s more likely he just had a great game than that ASU can’t defend him. Harden is the ‘safer’ choice, but not by much.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
1) Brian Gay vs. David Toms – Gay has a better first round score
2) Aston Villa @ CSKA Moscow – CSKA Moscow advances
3) Woods wins by hole 10-15 vs. Woods wins by 16+ or loses – Woods wins on 16+ or loses
4) Fiorentina @ Ajax Amsterdam – 3 goals or more
5) Florida Panthers @ New York Rangers – Florida Panthers
6) West Virginia @ Cincinnati – Cincinnati has more three pointers
7) Xavier @ St. Joseph’s – 133 points or more
8) Cleveland @ Houston – Cleveland
9) Miami (FL) @ Virginia – Virginia
10) Columbus Blue Jackets @ Edmonton Oilers – 6 goals or more
11) Purdue @ Michigan – Purdue
12) Memphis vs. Murray State – Murray State has a larger winning margin
13) James Harden vs. Justin Dentmon – Harden pts.
Analysis
1) Brian Gay won this event at this course last year. It’s a shorter course which will negate some of Toms’ advantage in driving distance. Gay hits more greens in regulation and is slightly more accurate with his drives which is important on this course with tropical winds being a factor. That should be enough to overcome Toms’ fewer putts per hole. Finally, in the three past events these two have played together Gay has had the lower first round score all three times.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
2) Aston Villa is resting the majority of their starters for this match and CSKA already has an away goal. With all the reserves playing for Aston Villa CSKA Moscow should comfortably pull this out.
Confidence: W15 streak or less
3) Woods had a couple of eagles in the first round, which is great, but he also had a couple of bogeys. Jones couldn’t capitalize on that but Clark should be able to. Clark had zero bogeys in the first round, so he would win those holes against Woods. If Jones could go 16 holes against Woods, Clark should be able to as well.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
5) Florida has had a day to rest while New York is traveling from Toronto after losing to the Maple Leafs yesterday. Vokoun should be back in net for the Panthers, but even if he is not Anderson has had the Rangers’ number this season. New York’s coach has been quoted saying his team looks too tired at the end of games as well. Florida bounces back on the road here with a 2 – 1 or 3 – 1 win.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) Cincinnati shoots a higher percentage on threes and has 4 players averaging one made three pointer. West Virginia makes close to the same number of threes and Cincy but have only three players averaging one three or more per game. West Virginia has a good defense and typically disrupts three point shooting teams, but Cincinnati has shot well against other teams in their conference who defend the three well.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
8) Cleveland is on a level above Houston being contenders to reach the Finals while Houston will count itself fortunate to achieve a first round win. Delonte West will be returning for the Cavaliers and they have LeBron. Houston doesn’t have the advantage in many of the matchups, except perhaps with Scola versus Wallace.
Confidence: W9 streak or less
9) Virginia is pretty good at the turnover game, one of Miami’s weaknesses. They’re also at home. I like the upset here and don’t think McClinton can beat Virginia on his own.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
12) Memphis at UAB is a major rivalry game pitting the top two C-USA schools against one another. UAB lost this game by 1 point last year, and Memphis had Derrick Rose. Tyreke Evans is good, but is he that good? Murray State plays in a weaker conference where 20 point swings from home to away games are common. Morehead State is not very good on the road and Murray State is playing well right now. Murray State wins by 15, Memphis wins by 7.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
13) Harden scores 1.66 points per shot while Dentmon shoots a terrific 1.53 points per shot. 0.13 difference is still significant with this stat. Dentmon had his best game of the season at ASU earlier in the year. I think it’s more likely he just had a great game than that ASU can’t defend him. Harden is the ‘safer’ choice, but not by much.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
February 25th, 2009 Picks
Well, I was pretty damn pleased when Inter Milan and Manchester United combined to score zero goals in their match. I was heartbroken when Nebraska completely shut down and lost to Texas A&M by two. Overall, not a great day, but I did get a few nice ones correct. So on to the next days picks!
1) Stewart Cink vs. Richard Sterne – Cink
2) Yukon/Northwest Territores vs. Nova Scotia – Yukon/Northwest Territory
3) Mike Weir vs. Hunter Mahan – Mahan
4) Woods wins on hole 10-15 vs. wins on hole 16+ or loses – Wins on 16+ or loses
5) Tim Clark vs. Retief Goosen – Clark
6) Liverpool @ Real Madrid – Real Madrid
7) Juventus @ Chelsea – 2 goals or fewer
8) Connecticut @ Marquette – Connecticut
9) Kentucky @ South Carolina – South Carolina
10) San Jose @ Detroit – Detroit
11) New York Rangers @ Toronto – Toronto
12) Brandon Roy pts+reb vs. Tim Duncan pts+reb – Roy pts+reb
13) Kansas State @ Missouri – 152 points or fewer
14) Kyle Singler vs. Greivis Vasquez – Singler gets more points
15) Texas Tech @ Texas – Texas Tech has more three pointers
16) Charlotte @ Sacramento – Charlotte
Analysis
2) Nova Scotia has only one victory, against Manitoba. Northwest Territory/Yukon only has two wins, but one of them is a come-from-behind victory over Team Canada.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
4) Pro golfers are good, some better than others. Until Tiger proves he’s back to top form I have to assume he’ll be taken the distance by whoever he plays.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
6) Liverpool returns Gerrard and Alonso which should help them a great deal, but Real Madrid is on a 9 – 0 – 0 tear in the Spanish Premier League, scoring 22 goals and allowing only 2. Plus, Atletico Madrid, a team that Liverpool pulled a draw against twice in group play has been beaten at home by Real Madrid 2 -1 when Real wasn’t playing with such form.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
7) Very dangerous to pick under with Juventus in the house and with Chelsea fielding Anelka and Drogba, two potent strikers. Chelsea should hold strong at home, however. I expect Juventus to do the same, losing to Chelsea 1 – 0 or 2 – 0.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
9) South Carolina has already beaten Kentucky at Kentucky, though it was on a last second shot. South Carolina is as good as the Wildcats this year with two main differences. One, the Gamecocks don’t have a player receiving as much media attention as Jodie Meeks, and two, their conference losses have come to opponents with 16 total losses while Kentucky’s losses have come to opponents with 22 total losses. South Carolina at home here is the clincher.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
11) The Rangers have a better record overall and have a better away record than Toronto has home record. New York is only 1 – 1 – 1 against Toronto, however, losing at Toronto, and losing at home in a shootout.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
13) Yea, these two teams are high powered offenses who should easily put up 153 points. They’re also not bad defensively. Lately they haven’t been scoring as much. In conference Kansas State has gone over in only 2 of 6 away games, and one of those required overtime to go over. Missouri has gone over in 3 of 6 home games. Their last game went over by 7 points, but that’s not a predictor here. Plus, I have a system.
Confidence: W8 streak or less
14) Singler is the more consistent scorer here with a 0.11 advantage in points per shot, which is significant. Vasquez will have to have another phenomenal game wherein he takes 20+ shots, and I don’t see Duke letting that happen after watching UNC go down.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
15) Texas Tech averages more threes per game than Texas and shoots at a higher percentage. Texas has mainly A.J. Abrams to rely on for threes while Tech has three players that average one three pointer or more per game. Even in a 71 – 49 loss Texas Tech shot 7 threes to 6 for Texas.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
Good luck today, sorry about the Nebraska pick if anybody picked them.
1) Stewart Cink vs. Richard Sterne – Cink
2) Yukon/Northwest Territores vs. Nova Scotia – Yukon/Northwest Territory
3) Mike Weir vs. Hunter Mahan – Mahan
4) Woods wins on hole 10-15 vs. wins on hole 16+ or loses – Wins on 16+ or loses
5) Tim Clark vs. Retief Goosen – Clark
6) Liverpool @ Real Madrid – Real Madrid
7) Juventus @ Chelsea – 2 goals or fewer
8) Connecticut @ Marquette – Connecticut
9) Kentucky @ South Carolina – South Carolina
10) San Jose @ Detroit – Detroit
11) New York Rangers @ Toronto – Toronto
12) Brandon Roy pts+reb vs. Tim Duncan pts+reb – Roy pts+reb
13) Kansas State @ Missouri – 152 points or fewer
14) Kyle Singler vs. Greivis Vasquez – Singler gets more points
15) Texas Tech @ Texas – Texas Tech has more three pointers
16) Charlotte @ Sacramento – Charlotte
Analysis
2) Nova Scotia has only one victory, against Manitoba. Northwest Territory/Yukon only has two wins, but one of them is a come-from-behind victory over Team Canada.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
4) Pro golfers are good, some better than others. Until Tiger proves he’s back to top form I have to assume he’ll be taken the distance by whoever he plays.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
6) Liverpool returns Gerrard and Alonso which should help them a great deal, but Real Madrid is on a 9 – 0 – 0 tear in the Spanish Premier League, scoring 22 goals and allowing only 2. Plus, Atletico Madrid, a team that Liverpool pulled a draw against twice in group play has been beaten at home by Real Madrid 2 -1 when Real wasn’t playing with such form.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
7) Very dangerous to pick under with Juventus in the house and with Chelsea fielding Anelka and Drogba, two potent strikers. Chelsea should hold strong at home, however. I expect Juventus to do the same, losing to Chelsea 1 – 0 or 2 – 0.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
9) South Carolina has already beaten Kentucky at Kentucky, though it was on a last second shot. South Carolina is as good as the Wildcats this year with two main differences. One, the Gamecocks don’t have a player receiving as much media attention as Jodie Meeks, and two, their conference losses have come to opponents with 16 total losses while Kentucky’s losses have come to opponents with 22 total losses. South Carolina at home here is the clincher.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
11) The Rangers have a better record overall and have a better away record than Toronto has home record. New York is only 1 – 1 – 1 against Toronto, however, losing at Toronto, and losing at home in a shootout.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
13) Yea, these two teams are high powered offenses who should easily put up 153 points. They’re also not bad defensively. Lately they haven’t been scoring as much. In conference Kansas State has gone over in only 2 of 6 away games, and one of those required overtime to go over. Missouri has gone over in 3 of 6 home games. Their last game went over by 7 points, but that’s not a predictor here. Plus, I have a system.
Confidence: W8 streak or less
14) Singler is the more consistent scorer here with a 0.11 advantage in points per shot, which is significant. Vasquez will have to have another phenomenal game wherein he takes 20+ shots, and I don’t see Duke letting that happen after watching UNC go down.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
15) Texas Tech averages more threes per game than Texas and shoots at a higher percentage. Texas has mainly A.J. Abrams to rely on for threes while Tech has three players that average one three pointer or more per game. Even in a 71 – 49 loss Texas Tech shot 7 threes to 6 for Texas.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
Good luck today, sorry about the Nebraska pick if anybody picked them.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
February 24th, 2009 Picks
Well, went 6-4-0 yesterday, and I could just punch myself for passing up the chance to pick Boston and going with Golden State instead. Especially since I had more confidence in Boston (W7 vs. W3). On to the next streak and on to the picks.
1) AS Roma @ Arsenal – AS Roma win or draw
2) Manchester United @ Inter Milan – 2 goals or fewer
3) O.J. Mayo + Rudy Gay pts. vs. LeBron James pts. – Mayo and Gay
4) Colorado Avalanche @ Atlanta Thrashers – Colorado
5) Penn State @ Ohio State – 127 or over
6) Vancouver Canucks @ Montreal Canadiens – Vancouver
7) Portland @ Houston – Portland
8) Florida @ LSU – LSU
9) Florida State @ Boston College – Florida State
10) Texas A&M @ Nebraska – Nebraska
11) Brigham Young @ San Diego State – Brigham Young
Analysis
1) Arsenal is missing strikers Adebayor and Walcott, midfielder Fabregas, and defender Silvestre while AS Roma is essentially at full strength. Roma has not won in England recently, but today is a day they should not lose.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
2) Internazionale (Inter Milan) has averaged a total score of 1.3 in their home matches in the Champions League; Manchester United has averaged a total score of 1.7 in their away matches. 0 of 3 home matches have gone 3 goals or over for Internazionale and 1 of 3 of Manchester United’s away matches have gone over. Even in their home leagues Inter averages a total score of 2.2 and Manchester United averages a total score of 1.7. Manchester United is missing a number of key defenders, notably Nemanja Vidic, Jonathan Evans, and Gary Neville, but they will have a strong defense on the field with or without O’Shea since they can play midfielders as defenders. Additionally, the only goals the Red Devils have conceded in Champions League play have been when Vidic, Rafael, or Neville have been on the field. Inter Milan is missing Mazzerati on defense, but more than make up for that with the addition of Chivu.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
5) It’s not that Penn State and Ohio State like to eke out victorys with monumental defensive efforts, but they can play that game if forced to (see: Penn St. 38-33 Illinois the other day). These teams know how to put up points and it seems unlikely PSU will shoot as poorly as they did against Illinois. Plus, you’d think OSU could get at least a few free throws, unlike Illinois. And I have a system for these.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
8) I’ll have to do more research but I don’t really see a reason to expect Florida will have a chance in this one on the road. LSU has been playing well lately and one shouldn’t expect Florida to defeat LSU at home when they’ve already lost to Tennessee and Georgia. Again, it seems unlikely they’ll have another 50+% game from beyond the arc when they’re only 37.3% from three on the season.
Confidence: W13 streak or less
10) Nebraska has a great defense, especially at home. They consistently force more turnovers than they give up. They also keep offenses from flowing, as evidenced by only one conference opponent getting 10 assists against them (all the rest had fewer than 10). They will probably be outrebounded by Texas A&M but the Aggies will need another 29 free throw edge to beat the Cornhuskers here.
Confidence: W20 streak or less
Good luck y’all!
1) AS Roma @ Arsenal – AS Roma win or draw
2) Manchester United @ Inter Milan – 2 goals or fewer
3) O.J. Mayo + Rudy Gay pts. vs. LeBron James pts. – Mayo and Gay
4) Colorado Avalanche @ Atlanta Thrashers – Colorado
5) Penn State @ Ohio State – 127 or over
6) Vancouver Canucks @ Montreal Canadiens – Vancouver
7) Portland @ Houston – Portland
8) Florida @ LSU – LSU
9) Florida State @ Boston College – Florida State
10) Texas A&M @ Nebraska – Nebraska
11) Brigham Young @ San Diego State – Brigham Young
Analysis
1) Arsenal is missing strikers Adebayor and Walcott, midfielder Fabregas, and defender Silvestre while AS Roma is essentially at full strength. Roma has not won in England recently, but today is a day they should not lose.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
2) Internazionale (Inter Milan) has averaged a total score of 1.3 in their home matches in the Champions League; Manchester United has averaged a total score of 1.7 in their away matches. 0 of 3 home matches have gone 3 goals or over for Internazionale and 1 of 3 of Manchester United’s away matches have gone over. Even in their home leagues Inter averages a total score of 2.2 and Manchester United averages a total score of 1.7. Manchester United is missing a number of key defenders, notably Nemanja Vidic, Jonathan Evans, and Gary Neville, but they will have a strong defense on the field with or without O’Shea since they can play midfielders as defenders. Additionally, the only goals the Red Devils have conceded in Champions League play have been when Vidic, Rafael, or Neville have been on the field. Inter Milan is missing Mazzerati on defense, but more than make up for that with the addition of Chivu.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
5) It’s not that Penn State and Ohio State like to eke out victorys with monumental defensive efforts, but they can play that game if forced to (see: Penn St. 38-33 Illinois the other day). These teams know how to put up points and it seems unlikely PSU will shoot as poorly as they did against Illinois. Plus, you’d think OSU could get at least a few free throws, unlike Illinois. And I have a system for these.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
8) I’ll have to do more research but I don’t really see a reason to expect Florida will have a chance in this one on the road. LSU has been playing well lately and one shouldn’t expect Florida to defeat LSU at home when they’ve already lost to Tennessee and Georgia. Again, it seems unlikely they’ll have another 50+% game from beyond the arc when they’re only 37.3% from three on the season.
Confidence: W13 streak or less
10) Nebraska has a great defense, especially at home. They consistently force more turnovers than they give up. They also keep offenses from flowing, as evidenced by only one conference opponent getting 10 assists against them (all the rest had fewer than 10). They will probably be outrebounded by Texas A&M but the Aggies will need another 29 free throw edge to beat the Cornhuskers here.
Confidence: W20 streak or less
Good luck y’all!
Monday, February 23, 2009
February 23rd, 2009 Picks
Bad day, 25% correct is by far the worst I’ve done here. I did get the Genoa pick, Boston, the over/under on Duke and Wake and the Harden more points prop. Overall I’ve been doing great on over/unders in college basketball, but the straight up picks have been shite. And it looks like there are two early morning additions to the schedule and so on to the picks.
1) Tottenham Hotspur @ Hull City – 3 goals or over
2) Quebec vs. Alberta – Quebec
3) Louisville @ Georgetown – Louisville
4) Philadelphia 76ers @ New Jersey Nets – Philadelphia
5) San Jose @ Dallas – 5 goals or less
6) Tennesse-Martin @ Murray State – Murray State
7) Boston Celtics @ Denver Nuggets – Boston
8) Kansas @ Oklahoma – Oklahoma
9) Alberta vs. British Columbia – Alberta
10) Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers – Golden State
Analysis
1) Hull City has gone over in 75% of their home games and Tottenham has gone over in 58% of their away games. Average total goals scored in Hull City home matches: 3.2, average total goals scored in Tottenham away matches: 3.1. Still, on any given Monday a squad may fail to find the net.
Confidence: W3 streak or less.
3) We already saw this game on here and the Hoyas showed they don’t have what it takes to win this kind of game. Cardinals win, just like Marquette did.
Confidence: W12 streak or less
6) Murray State lost at Tennessee-Martin by four points and shot 50% from the foul line. They are a 70+% free throw shooting team, so they easily could have won that game. Murray State also has an impressive 9 point loss at Missouri in their non-conference schedule. Tennessee-Martin lacks a game like that on their schedule. Lester Hudson will give the Skyhawks a big push and it should be a close game. Murray State has also proven to have the capability to choke away close games. I still think they win at home.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
7) Surprising to see this matchup on here as Nene just went down for Denver during the final minute of their game against Milwaukee yesterday. Both teams are on the second of a back-to-back, with Boston hammering Phoenix in Phoenix and Denver losing to the Bucks. Kenyon Martin looks to return tonight with Renaldo Balkman also seeing a few minutes. Still, the Celtics are a mature team and Denver will be hard pressed to beat them a second time this season. Kenyon Martin may come back strong, or gingerly, depending on how tight his back is.
Confidence: W7 streak or less
10) Golden State is more talented with Al Thornton, Chris Kaman, and Marcus Camby all out. The loss of Monta Ellis will hurt, but they should get Biedrins back. With the Clippers looking like they’ve quit on the season by now the Warriors look like a solid pick.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
If I didn’t bold the pick it means I wouldn’t pick it. Though I’m tempted with Quebec/Alberta, the Quebecois have been doing well so far.
1) Tottenham Hotspur @ Hull City – 3 goals or over
2) Quebec vs. Alberta – Quebec
3) Louisville @ Georgetown – Louisville
4) Philadelphia 76ers @ New Jersey Nets – Philadelphia
5) San Jose @ Dallas – 5 goals or less
6) Tennesse-Martin @ Murray State – Murray State
7) Boston Celtics @ Denver Nuggets – Boston
8) Kansas @ Oklahoma – Oklahoma
9) Alberta vs. British Columbia – Alberta
10) Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers – Golden State
Analysis
1) Hull City has gone over in 75% of their home games and Tottenham has gone over in 58% of their away games. Average total goals scored in Hull City home matches: 3.2, average total goals scored in Tottenham away matches: 3.1. Still, on any given Monday a squad may fail to find the net.
Confidence: W3 streak or less.
3) We already saw this game on here and the Hoyas showed they don’t have what it takes to win this kind of game. Cardinals win, just like Marquette did.
Confidence: W12 streak or less
6) Murray State lost at Tennessee-Martin by four points and shot 50% from the foul line. They are a 70+% free throw shooting team, so they easily could have won that game. Murray State also has an impressive 9 point loss at Missouri in their non-conference schedule. Tennessee-Martin lacks a game like that on their schedule. Lester Hudson will give the Skyhawks a big push and it should be a close game. Murray State has also proven to have the capability to choke away close games. I still think they win at home.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
7) Surprising to see this matchup on here as Nene just went down for Denver during the final minute of their game against Milwaukee yesterday. Both teams are on the second of a back-to-back, with Boston hammering Phoenix in Phoenix and Denver losing to the Bucks. Kenyon Martin looks to return tonight with Renaldo Balkman also seeing a few minutes. Still, the Celtics are a mature team and Denver will be hard pressed to beat them a second time this season. Kenyon Martin may come back strong, or gingerly, depending on how tight his back is.
Confidence: W7 streak or less
10) Golden State is more talented with Al Thornton, Chris Kaman, and Marcus Camby all out. The loss of Monta Ellis will hurt, but they should get Biedrins back. With the Clippers looking like they’ve quit on the season by now the Warriors look like a solid pick.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
If I didn’t bold the pick it means I wouldn’t pick it. Though I’m tempted with Quebec/Alberta, the Quebecois have been doing well so far.
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