Quick & Dirty Update

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A Snapshot Of My Day

Selected random lyrics I've written:

To form a chronology of Grande E, you must traverse the breeze, start in the Sin City;
Las Vegas gave birth to me, but the Mormon mecca took the role of raising me, SLC!
Sugarhood be the last remaining levy versus developments, the change is heavy.
Spent some time around, Ft. Collins, start the bud, had the Cough, I found;
Met some colored contacts, spent some time in Cincy, hooked me up, thought it looked kinda chintzy;
That's OK, ended up delayed in faux Jewel, Joya, jolly neighbor air destroyer;
Coronado, low hum constant, interfere with, environs were heaven sent.

I heard you had beef with your external disguise, with these guys on all sides, unzippin' they flies;
tried to take care of it with yay-yea, you only made yourself sick, life felt like shit, yea.
You've got to believe that desire and relief are just chains on you and me, please don't bleed,
satisfyin' serotonin needs. Lettin' lifes abstract greeds get underneath your sheets.
Compassion is the fashion, send a polyphonic lashin', that gold shimmers n' fades, bling disappeared in the shade.
Aqua regia took it completely away.
Gotta open up your third eyes, believe, get high, get by, pay attention, got mine. Gonna get yours? For you kid, I'll teach a course.

Morality Play At The Delta Center

At the Jazz game last night they had a little 'contest' during one of the breaks. Three guys had a chance to win a basketball, they just had to make a slam dunk off the trampoline like they do during the halftime show.

The MC asks the first guy why he entered the contest: "Because it looks easy!" so the guy jumps on the trampoline and falls woefully short of the basket. The second guy's answer is: "So I can sell the ball on eBay and make some money!", prompting the crowd to boo. He goes up in the air and at the last moment loses his grip on the ball, causing him to miss his dunk too.

Finally, the MC asks the third man why he's entered the contest: "So that I can win that basketball for the biggest Jazz fan in the world, my DAUGHTER!". The crowd cheers and the man runs up to the trampoline, his two year old daughters' hopes and dreams resting on his shoulders. He jumps off the trampoline and delivers a ferocious two-handed jam.


No. Seriously. That is exactly how it went down in real life. This is not a parable or a fable, this was the real, off-action, entertainment at the game.

Increasing 'N' For Improved CRQL Recovery

To start off, there is a great book on error analysis called "An Introduction To Error Analysis" by John R. Taylor. This book has very succinct and easy to use explanations of least squares analysis, linear regression, and propagation of errors.

On the back cover are the expressions we will need to examine how the choice of 'N' in constructing a calibration curve will effect the slope and intercept of a linear regression line.

If (x₁,y₁),...,(x_N,y_N) are data points then the best fit straight line A=mc+b is given by:
m = [(sum(x²)*(sum(y)) - (sum(x)*sum(x*y))]/D
b = [(sum(x*y) - (sum(x)*sum(y))]/D
D = N*(sum(x²) - (sum(x))²)

We can see that N appears in the expression for both m and b in the denominator. Since sum(x²) >= (sum(x))² for any x we can see that increasing N will increase the value of D.

Examining the expressions for 'm' and 'b' we see that the concentration of the calibration standard added will have some effect on whether m or b are increasing or decreasing.

For now, let us focus on a calibration standard with a concentration of less than 1.0 in whatever units you are working in. Now, x² will be less than x. The value of y will depend on the choice for the value of x. For the CETAC M-7500, out of the box, the absorbance in µAbs units is approximately 10,000 times the concentration in ppb or µg/L. This means that in this specific case the values of 'y' will be very large.

The overall effect, when the additional calibration standards have a concentration of 0.5 or less, is to increase the slope as well as decrease the intercept.

Practically, this means that if your CRQL is coming in too low you may be able to make additional calibration standards at concentrations near the CRQL. Their inclusion should increase your overall recovery for low standards while not affecting the recovery very much for your high standards.

Below is an example demonstrating how adding low standards increases the slope gradually while decreasing the intercept more rapidly.

Click image for larger version. Data and graphs showing the effect of increasing N.

In this example computing percent recoveries reveals that including two standards near 0.5x the CRQL increases the percent recovery of the CRQL itself by around 2.5%.

October 28th 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Well, if you followed my picks at the start of October you noticed quite a few losers, and I started my campaign for the monthly on a bitter and sour note (something like 6W-18L-1P). The past couple of weeks have been a bit kinder and I made a brief run up the monthly leaderboard but the last two days have been killers. Japan let me down against Switzerland, giving up 4 unanswered goals after being up 2-0 and eventually falling 4-3. Then VfB Stuttgart continued their stunning run of futility with a 1-0 loss to SpVgg Greuther Fürth (a fucking 2.Bundesliga team). I was originally going to pick against Stuttgart because the DFB Pokal takes a back-seat to Bundesliga and Champions League matches. I then read an article on vfb.de where their coach stated a focus on winning the match today, not that it did them much good. Apparently they had plenty of shots on goal but could not finish on a single one. Later the Cavs disappointed, and from what I saw (the 2^nd quarter) they just did not look good offensively, aside from LeBron. The day wrapped up with a win, 105 points or more. It only took a barrage of free throws and made baskets in the final minute of the half to do it. So, it's on to another day of picks, and a furious attempt to at least hit 70 wins for the month (10 to go). Good luck everybody!

Picks
1) Gambia vs. Netherlands - Netherlands win
2) Costa Rica vs. Turkey - Turkey win
3) Iran vs. Colombia - 0 or 1 goals scored in the 1^st half
4) AC Milan @ Napoli - 2 goals or fewer
5) Liverpool @ Arsenal - Arsenal win
6) Buffalo Sabres @ New Jersey Devils - New Jersey
7) Ottawa Senators @ Florida Panthers - Florida
8) Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees - Philadelphia
9) Which Starting Pitcher Will Allow Fewer Hits: Cliff Lee or Tie vs. C.C. Sabathia - Lee or tie
10) David West vs. Richard Jefferson - West points
11) Detroit Pistons @ Memphis Grizzlies - Memphis
12) Carmelo Anthony's 1^st Half Points: 14 Or Fewer vs. 15 Or More - 14 or fewer
13) L.A. Kings vs. San Jose Sharks - 2^nd Period has more goals

October 4th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)It was just another day where college football kicked my ass. Started out the day with Tottenham Hotspur only managing a draw against Bolton for the loss, but at least it was an entertaining match. Then picked up a win with the Chicago Blackhawks taking revenge on Florida, 4-0. My third pick was another loss with Vancouver failing to beat the Avalanche at home. Colorado is off to a good start this season with two home victories over playoff teams from last season. I finished the day with a win as the Tampa Bay Rays outlasted the Yankees 5-3. Plenty of NFL action today so good luck and on to the picks!

Picks
1) Liverpool @ Chelsea - Liverpool win or draw
2) Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots - New England
3) Chicago Bears (v. Lions) vs. Indianapolis Colts (v. Seahawks) - Indianapolis larger winning margin
4) Washington Redskins (v. Buccaneers) vs. Houston Texans (v. Raiders) - Washington larger winning margin
5) New York Giants Winning Margin vs. Kansas City Chiefs 2^nd Half Points - Giants winning margin
6) Cincinnati Bengals Winning Margin vs. Cleveland Browns TDs and FGs - Cincinnati winning margin
7) Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars - Jacksonville
8) Scott Piercy or Matt Kuchar vs. Rest Of Field - Rest of field
9) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay
10) Tony Stewart vs. Jeff Gordon - Stewart has a better final position
11) Phoenix Mercury @ Indiana Fever - Phoenix
12) Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins - Buffalo
13) New York Jets TDs and FGs vs. New Orleans Saints Winning Margin - Jets TDs and FGs
14) Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Los Angeles
15) Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos - Dallas
16) St. Louis Rams 2^nd Half Points vs. San Francisco 49ers Winning Margin - Rams 2^nd half points
17) San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers - San Diego

October 3rd, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Yesterday was much better on the picks front. I started out with a win when Steve Flesch turned his game around and went -3 on the front nine. Picked up my lone loss of the day when Cristobal Huet gave up two goals on seven shots to the Panthers in the third period, including the tying goal with under three minutes left. Of course he was not up to the task in the shootout and Vokoun led Florida to victory. I then got lucky with St. Louis scoring three unanswered goals against Detroit to take the victory. Finished up the night with BYU doubling up Utah State plus one with the final score of 35-17. We've got a smorgasbord of picks on the menu today so good luck and on to the picks!

Picks
1) Tottenham Hotspru @ Bolton Wanderers - Tottenham Hotspur win
2) Wisconsin Badgers @ Minnesota Golden Gophers - Wisconsin
3) Chicago Blackhawks vs. Florida Panthers - Chicago
4) Michigan Wolverines @ Michigan State Spartans - Michigan State
5) Vancouver Canucks @ Colorado Avalanche - Vancouver
6) Kansas State Wildcats @ Iowa Sate Cyclones - Iowa State
7) Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards - Busch has a better final position
8) Air Force Falcons @ Navy Midshipmen - Air Force
9) North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons - Wake Forest
10) Florida State Seminoles @ Boston College Eagles - Florida State
11) Washington Huskies 2^nd Half Points @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Winning Margin - Notre Dame Winning Margin
12) LSU Tigers @ Georgia Bulldogs - LSU
13) Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins - Kansas City
14) Philadelphia Flyers @ New Jersey Devils - New Jersey
15) Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers - Detroit
16) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay
17) Texas A&M Aggies @ Arkansas Razorbacks - Texas A&M
18) Auburn Tigers @ Tennessee Volunteers - Auburn
19) USC Trojans @ California Golden Bears - USC
20) Oklahoma Sooners Winning Margin @ Miami(FL) Hurricanes TDs and FGs - Miami(FL) TDs and FGs
21) San Jose Sharks @ Anaheim Ducks - Anaheim
22) Colorado State Rams @ Idaho Vandals - Colorado State