September 25th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)2-4-0 yesterday, started the day with a Mike Weir loss followed by Egypt and Trini scoring in the 30^th minute. What gets me is they scored 3 times in the next 27 minute period. I got off the losing way with Genoa getting the draw against Juventus then Tiger carding par on the 18^th. After that I made a stupid mistake in going with Verlander's hits though it turned out to be a decent selection. Toronto was just swinging and missing all night, a team in the top 5 in strikeouts delivered Hernandez his season high in the stat. Then I fell asleep to van Damme in "Double Impact" while Brian Wilson blew a save to give me another loss. Really glad I wasn't watching that game. According to the recap the Giants are now 73-2 when leading after 8 innings *scoff*. Well, I feel a return to over .500 coming so on to the picks.

Picks
1) Italy U20 vs. Paraguay U20 - Paraguay win or draw
2) Heath Slocum vs. Phil Mickelson - Slocum cards a lower or equal front 9 score
3) Sporting Braga vs. Olhanense - Olhanense win or draw
4) Spain vs. Tahiti - 4 goals or more
5) Tiger Woods' Back 9 Score: 33 Or Lower vs. 34 Or Higher - 34 or higher
6) Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees - New York
7) Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers - Texas
8) Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals - Kansas City
9) Missouri Tiger's Winning Margin vs. Nevada Wolfpack's TDs and FGs - Missouri winning margin
10) Blaine Gabbert's Passing Yards: 265 Or Fewer vs. 266 Or More - 265 or fewer
11) BC Lions @ Calgary Stampeders - 55 points or more
12) Los Angeles Sparks @ Phoenix Mercury - Phoenix
13) Will Tim Lincecum Be The Winning Pitcher (Cubs @ Giants): Yes vs. No - Yes

September 24th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Well, I bust out the previews and end up with my worst day in two weeks. Fortunately the Detroit Shock kept my streak alive after the Angels extended the losing to two games thanks to some lousing hitting with RISP. Golden Arrows did nothing to change it. I'll probably preview a few today including the Verlander prop but mostly they'll just be quickies. So on to the picks!

Picks
1) Luke Donald vs. Mike Weir - Weir cards a lower front 9 score
2) Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh
3) First Goal Scored (Trinidad & Tobago @ Egypt): 27^th Minute Or Earlier vs. 28^th Minute Or Later - 27^th or earlier
4) Tiger Woods' Front 9 score: 33 Or Lower vs. 34 Or Higher - 33 or lower
5) Juventus @ Genoa - Genoa win or draw
6) Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics - Oakland
7) Tiger Woods' Par-3 18^th Score: Par (3) vs. Any Other Score - Par (3)
8) Felix Hernandez Strikeouts (@Blue Jays) vs. Justin Verlander Hits Allowed (@Indians) - Verlander hits allowed
9) #4 Mississippi Rebels @ South Carolina Gamecocks - Mississippi
10) Will J.A. Happ Be The Winning Pitcher (Phillies @ Brewers): Yes vs. No - Yes
11) Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants - San Francisco
12) How Many Runs Scored In Innings 5 Through 9 (Cubs @ Giants): 3 Or Fewer vs. 4 Or More - 3 or fewer

Previews

Dempster has a 3.12 ERA in the 5th and 6th innings while Penny's is 3.16 there.

12) I'll try and post some numbers on Ryan Dempster's and Brad Penny's ERA in innings 5 and 6 this season and some bullpen numbers, for now I just don't trust the bullpens to keep this low.

Well, Dempster has a 3.12 ERA in innings 5 and 6 and has pitched them as shutout innings in 17 of 25 starts this season. The Cubs bullpen has a 4.14 ERA which comes out to about 1.4 runs allowed in innings 7 through 9. Brad Penny has an ERA of 3.16 in innings 5 and 6 and pitched them as shutout innings in 13 of 24 starts. The Giants bullpen has a stellar 3.51 ERA so overall 2 or 3 runs scored would be most likely, statistically (yeah, I hate that disclaimer too).

September 23rd, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)1-1-0 on the day, picked up a win with Joe Blanton going 2 full innings further than Josh Johnson. After that got screwed by the Phillies who managed a full two hits against Anibal Sanchez as they wasted a quality start by Jamie Moyer and fell 3-0 to the Marlins. Of course the Phillies are going to put forth their worst effort on the season when they're up on SFTC with 92% of the people picking them, right? So another day and another round of picks!

Picks
1) Santos @ Golden Arrows - Golden Arrows
2) Napoli @ Inter Milan - Napoli win, draw, or lose by 1 goal
3) AC Milan @ Udinese - Udinese win or draw
4) New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels - Los Angeles
5) Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays - Rays lead after 4¹/₂ innings
6) Cole Hamels Strikeouts Or Tie vs. Florida Marlins Hits Off Hamels - Hamels strikeouts or tie
7) Indiana Fever @ Detroit Shock - Detroit
8) Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox - Chicago
9) Phoenix Mercury @ Los Angeles Sparks - Los Angeles
10) Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics - Oakland
11) San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks - San Francisco

Previews

Inter Milan suit up their third game this week. Can they beat the fatigue and Napoli?

2) Inter Milan is a good favorite to win this match at 2/5 (-250) compared to 11/4 (+275) for a draw and 15/2 (+750) for Napoli to win. Take a look at the handicap betting a few lines down, however, and one can see Inter Milan are only 6/5 (+120) when Napoli is spotted a goal. Combining the handicap tie for Napoli and accounting for the sportsbooks profits Milan are +145 to win by 2 goals or more. Inter Milan will be missing Thiago Motta at midfield and will be playing their third game this week. I think this will be a difficult game for Inter Milan much like the match against A.S. Bari earlier this season. It will come down to whether their strikers are able to pin-point difficult shots. If they can, don't be surprised by a 4-1 scoreline in favor of Inter.

Udinese will have home field advantage as they seek to regain a place in Europe in 2010.

3) This match features two teams who are underachieving thus far this season. Udinese sits in 12^th place with a 1-2-1 (W-D-L) record and with an even goal differential while AC Milan are currently 8^th with a 2-1-1 record and -2 differential. Udinese will seek a place in Europe this year after last seasons quarterfinal run in the UEFA Cup. AC Milan are trying to seek another Champions League place where they are currently competing in the group stage. Both teams are dealing with a slew of injuries: Udinese are missing Kwadwo Asamoah (M), Christian Obodo (M), Damiano Ferronetti (D), Christian Zapata (D) and AC Milan are missing Daniele Bonera (D), Davide Di Gennaro (M), and Marco Borriello (F). Considering these injuries SkyBet have AC Milan at 5/4 (+125) and combining the win and draw odds and accounting for the sportsbooks profit we get Udinese to win or draw at -145.

(top) Teams' strikeout rate vs. Hamels, with 100% being average. Click image for larger view.

6) Hamels has faced the Marlins twice this season and has managed to go 1-1 in terms of this prop. In the first game he struck out 5 and gave up 4 hits facing 20 batters and in the second game he struck out 4 and gave up 5 hits facing 25 batters. The difference was mainly in how often the Marlins struck out. To date this season the Marlins are average 5.11 plate appearances per strikeout good for 25^th in the Majors. Looking at the graph on the right one can see the rate at which opponents strike out against Hamels compared to their average. One can see Hamels generally strikes out teams at or above their average, sometimes at more than twice their rate. He has struck out teams above their average rate for six straight starts nd I think if he can do that in this game he will win this prop. Hamels has had more strikeouts than hits in only 13 of 29 starts this season so it's by no means a sure bet, but I think Florida is one team he can do it against.

10) This one looks like a can't-miss for Texas. They're regarded as the better team offensively and the pitching matchup undeniably favors Texas. Tommy Hunter may not strikeout a lot of batters and he does not force too many groundouts but players have a tough time hitting off of him, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .259, which could be considered a sign of luck. He has a WHIP of 1.18 and his ERA is 3.25 which are near All-Star level. He also has a win at Oakland already this season, pitching 7 innings and allowing only 3 runs off of three hits and 2 walks.

Can the A's bats provide Mortensen with enough support against Tommy Hunter?

Oakland will counter with young Clayton Mortensen who was brought up from AAA earlier this season for the first time in his career. His numbers look pretty abysmal with a 1.60 WHIP and 6.12 ERA in 25 innings of work but those numbers are bloated from a poor pair of initial starts. In his third start of the season he pitched 6 quality innings at Minnesota and the A's won 12-5. Mortensen put up mediocre numbers in AAA with a 4.39 ERA and 1.39 WHIP but his ground-ball to fly-ball ratio has been outstanding in the Majors which is important since his home run-to-fly ball ratio is more than double that of Hunter's and the Rangers are a slugging team (3^rd in MLB).

I think this conception of the Rangers as a power offense is where people are a bit off. Batting average wise the Athletics and Rangers are identical and the Rangers are far worse than Oakland in terms of plate appearances per strikeout (PASO) - Texas ranks 30^th in PASO. Oakland may not have the slugging of Texas but at Oakland-Alameda County Stadium Oakland are typically the better offense. They've outscored their opponents by 53 runs in 76 games and have actually hit 3 more home runs than the opposition. Overall I think Oakland can hang with Texas offensively in Oakland and it will just be a matter of Mortensen getting a quality start. Look for Hunter to have a poor game because it happens to even the best of them.

Comparative Pitching Statistics
	IFFB%	GB%	HR/FB	Contact%	O-Contact%
T. Hunter	11.7%	37.3%	7.3%	84.1%	67.7%
C. Mortensen	4.2%	54%	16.7%	78.5%	42.9%

September 22nd, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Another day, another losing pick in the evening. I started out with a win going for FC Midtylland in Danish soccer then picked up a second win when Dallas Clark went for 80 yards and tied the Monday Night Football record for quickest touchdown (12 seconds). Instead of being satisfied with two wins I went for another and lost as Joe Saunders showed the Yankees why they won't make it to the World Series this year. So on to a new day of picks then, yeah?

Picks
1) Liverpool @ Leeds United - Leeds United win, draw, or lose by 1 goal
2) Blackburn Rovers @ Nottingham Forest - Blackburn Rovers
3) Joe Blanton vs. Josh Johnson - Blanton pitches more or equal innings
4) Durham Bulls vs. Memphis Redbirds - Durham
5) How Many Runs Will Be Scored Before The 5^th Inning (Cubs @ Brewers): 4 Or Fewer vs. 5 Or More - 4 runs or fewer
6) Philadelphia Phillies @ Florida Marlins - Philadelphia
7) Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals - Kansas City
8) New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels - Los Angeles

Previews

Leeds United will face off against a shadow squad from Liverpool.

1) Liverpool should easily defeat Leeds United and by more than two goals if they were to play Leeds like they would a team from the Premiership. Liverpool will be more focused on Champions League matches and winning the Premier League than they are on the Carling Cup, however. The preview on ESPN's site can be found here and suggests Liverpool will likely be playing a squad of reserves with their key players such as Torres and Gerrard on the bench to come in only if Liverpool finds themselves losing or tied. SkySports report the same here. They also report Leeds will also have their minds on a match against MK Dons as they attempt to promote themselves to the Championship from League One (3^rd tier). With both sides focused more on their league matches than this Cup match I think we might see some dreary play with a 2-1 scoreline in favor of Liverpool - Beckford likely scores for Leeds. Click here for a bevy of news articles regarding this match.

2) Another match between a top-flight side, Blackburn Rovers, at a lower division side, Nottingham Forest of the 2^nd tier Championship. Blackburn will be playing quite a few second teamers hoping for a spot against Wigan Athletic this weekend so it won't be a massacre here. SkyBet has odds for this match with Nottingham Forest at 2/1 (+200) and Blackburn Rovers at 11/8 (+135) and a draw (after 90 minutes) at +225 so we could very well see this match go into extra time and possibly penalties. I would take Blackburn in those situations as they are a bigger club with more depth.

September 21st, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Well, the NFL was definitely not as kind as college football was. I went 1-1-0 on my picks today winning with Everton and losing with the St. Louis Cardinals. Cardinals had a chance to walk off with the bases loaded and one out but some poor hitting and worse base running ended my streak. The less said the better and so on to the picks.

Picks
1) FC Midtylland @ AGF Aarhug - FC Midtylland win or draw
2) Olhanense @ Sporting Lisbon - 2 goals or fewer
3) Will Derek Lowe Be The Winning Pitcher (Braves @ Mets): Yes vs. No - Yes
4) St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros - Houston
5) Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins - Indianapolis
6) Who Will Score First: Indianapolis vs. Miami - Indianapolis
7) How Many Receptions Will Reggie Wayne Record - 6 Or Fewer vs. 7 Or More - 7 or more
8) San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Arizona
9) New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels - New York
10) How Many Points Will Be Scored In The 2^nd Half (Colts @ Dolphins): 19 Or Fewer vs. 20 Or More - 19 or fewer

September 20th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)2-0-0 for my own picks today as I went for an eighth day in a row without falling below the .500-mark. Some of you may have noticed I lost out on all the 2^nd half point props in college football, so maybe it's best to calculate the final score with over/unders and lines and go the opposite of that then. I picked up one win yesterday with Jahvid Best rushing for 5 touchdowns while Minnesota got 3 touchdowns total and picked up my other win with the Dodgers wailing on Brad Penny and the Giants' 'pen for 12 runs. Hopefully the NFL will be as kind and so on to the picks.

Picks
1) Blackburn Rovers @ Everton - Everton win
2) New England Patriots @ New York Jets - New England
3) New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles - Philadelphia
4) Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars - Jacksonville
5) Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs - Oakland
6) Houston Texans vs. Chris Johnson - Texans gain more rushing yards
7) Cincinnati Bengals 2^nd Half Points @ Green Bay Packers Winning Margin - Bengals 2^nd half points
8) Brett Favre vs. Matthew Stafford - Stafford passing yards
9) St. Louis Rams Points Scored @ Washington Redskins Winning Margin - Rams points scored
10) Jake Delhomme vs. Matt Ryan - Ryan passing yards
11) Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves - Atlanta
12) Kurt Busch vs. Mark Martin - Martin has a better final position
13) Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers - Seattle
14) Tampa Bay Buccaneers TDs Scored @ Buffalo Bills Winning Margin - Buccaneers TDs scored
15) San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Los Angeles
16) Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers - Baltimore
17) Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos - Cleveland
18) Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears - Pittsburgh
19) Los Angeles Sparks @ Seattle Storm - Seattle
20) Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis
21) New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys - New York

September 19th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)A nice rebound day going 8-3-0 here and 2-0-0 for my Streak picks overall. Started out the day with a 3-0 win for Arminia Bielefeld on the road, skipped the next soccer match and got the come from behind win with the Marlins to finish the day. Florida rallied with 4 runs in the top of the 9^th and it proved just enough to avoid losing for the 10^th straight time at Great American Ballpark. We're back into the college football season tomorrow and hopefully there's at least one gimme screaming at you on the board. And so, with that, we continue, onward and froward to the picks.

Picks
1) Stoke City @ Bolton Wanderers - Stoke City win or draw
2) East Carolina Pirates 2^nd Half Points @ North Carolina Tarheels Winning Margin - East Carolina 2^nd half points
3) #8 California Golden Bears Rushing TDs @ Minnesota Golden Gophers Total TDs - California rushing TDs
4) #18 Utah Utes @ Oregon Ducks - Oregon
5) #19 Nebraska Cornhuskers @ #13 Virginia Tech Hokies - Virginia Tech
6) #3 USC Trojans Winning Margin @ Washington Huskies Points Scored - USC winning margin
7) Arizona Wildcats @ Iowa Hawkeyes - Iowa
8) San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Los Angeles
9) #17 Cincinnati Bearcats @ Oregon State Beavers - Cincinnati
10) Northwestern Wildcats @ Syracuse Orange - Syracuse
11) Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers - Los Angeles
12) #23 Georgia Bulldogs @ Arkansas Razorbacks - Arkansas
13) Texas Tech Red Raiders Points Scored @ Texas Longhorns 2^nd Half Points - Texas Tech points scored
14) Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Colorado
15) Floyd Mayweather vs. Juan Marquez - Any other outcome (non-decision)

Previews
2), 6), and 13)For these picks I tried not to think too much about them and instead just used the over/under and spread to figure what the result might be. From the over/under (denoted OU) and the Line (denoted Ln) one can figure the final score. Say Team A and Team B's final scores are denoted 'A' and 'B' then we can figure the final score from OU and Ln:

i) A + B = OU
ii) A - B = Ln
iii) 2×i) + ii) ==> 2A = OU + Ln ==> A = (OU + Ln)/2
iv) Insert iii) into i) OU/2 + Ln/2 + B = OU ==> B = (OU - Ln)/2

Now you can just plug in the over/under and the line to get the final scores. For East Carolina @ UNC the O/U is 44 and the line is 7.5 so the final score is 25.75 to 18.25, so ECU is figured to score 0 to 18 points, possibly all or none in the second half. Since 7.5 is less than half of 18 I'll go with the second half points.

USC is favored to win by 19 with 52 total points scored so (52-19)/2 = 16.5 is less than 19 so go with USC winning margin. You can figure of Texas Tech's points is more than half of Texas' points as well. Good luck, and go with your gut if you figure one team will score all their points in the first half or will just get whomped by more than the line shows.