September 22nd, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Another day, another losing pick in the evening. I started out with a win going for FC Midtylland in Danish soccer then picked up a second win when Dallas Clark went for 80 yards and tied the Monday Night Football record for quickest touchdown (12 seconds). Instead of being satisfied with two wins I went for another and lost as Joe Saunders showed the Yankees why they won't make it to the World Series this year. So on to a new day of picks then, yeah?

Picks
1) Liverpool @ Leeds United - Leeds United win, draw, or lose by 1 goal
2) Blackburn Rovers @ Nottingham Forest - Blackburn Rovers
3) Joe Blanton vs. Josh Johnson - Blanton pitches more or equal innings
4) Durham Bulls vs. Memphis Redbirds - Durham
5) How Many Runs Will Be Scored Before The 5^th Inning (Cubs @ Brewers): 4 Or Fewer vs. 5 Or More - 4 runs or fewer
6) Philadelphia Phillies @ Florida Marlins - Philadelphia
7) Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals - Kansas City
8) New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels - Los Angeles

Previews

Leeds United will face off against a shadow squad from Liverpool.

1) Liverpool should easily defeat Leeds United and by more than two goals if they were to play Leeds like they would a team from the Premiership. Liverpool will be more focused on Champions League matches and winning the Premier League than they are on the Carling Cup, however. The preview on ESPN's site can be found here and suggests Liverpool will likely be playing a squad of reserves with their key players such as Torres and Gerrard on the bench to come in only if Liverpool finds themselves losing or tied. SkySports report the same here. They also report Leeds will also have their minds on a match against MK Dons as they attempt to promote themselves to the Championship from League One (3^rd tier). With both sides focused more on their league matches than this Cup match I think we might see some dreary play with a 2-1 scoreline in favor of Liverpool - Beckford likely scores for Leeds. Click here for a bevy of news articles regarding this match.

2) Another match between a top-flight side, Blackburn Rovers, at a lower division side, Nottingham Forest of the 2^nd tier Championship. Blackburn will be playing quite a few second teamers hoping for a spot against Wigan Athletic this weekend so it won't be a massacre here. SkyBet has odds for this match with Nottingham Forest at 2/1 (+200) and Blackburn Rovers at 11/8 (+135) and a draw (after 90 minutes) at +225 so we could very well see this match go into extra time and possibly penalties. I would take Blackburn in those situations as they are a bigger club with more depth.

September 21st, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Well, the NFL was definitely not as kind as college football was. I went 1-1-0 on my picks today winning with Everton and losing with the St. Louis Cardinals. Cardinals had a chance to walk off with the bases loaded and one out but some poor hitting and worse base running ended my streak. The less said the better and so on to the picks.

Picks
1) FC Midtylland @ AGF Aarhug - FC Midtylland win or draw
2) Olhanense @ Sporting Lisbon - 2 goals or fewer
3) Will Derek Lowe Be The Winning Pitcher (Braves @ Mets): Yes vs. No - Yes
4) St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros - Houston
5) Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins - Indianapolis
6) Who Will Score First: Indianapolis vs. Miami - Indianapolis
7) How Many Receptions Will Reggie Wayne Record - 6 Or Fewer vs. 7 Or More - 7 or more
8) San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Arizona
9) New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels - New York
10) How Many Points Will Be Scored In The 2^nd Half (Colts @ Dolphins): 19 Or Fewer vs. 20 Or More - 19 or fewer

September 20th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)2-0-0 for my own picks today as I went for an eighth day in a row without falling below the .500-mark. Some of you may have noticed I lost out on all the 2^nd half point props in college football, so maybe it's best to calculate the final score with over/unders and lines and go the opposite of that then. I picked up one win yesterday with Jahvid Best rushing for 5 touchdowns while Minnesota got 3 touchdowns total and picked up my other win with the Dodgers wailing on Brad Penny and the Giants' 'pen for 12 runs. Hopefully the NFL will be as kind and so on to the picks.

Picks
1) Blackburn Rovers @ Everton - Everton win
2) New England Patriots @ New York Jets - New England
3) New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles - Philadelphia
4) Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars - Jacksonville
5) Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs - Oakland
6) Houston Texans vs. Chris Johnson - Texans gain more rushing yards
7) Cincinnati Bengals 2^nd Half Points @ Green Bay Packers Winning Margin - Bengals 2^nd half points
8) Brett Favre vs. Matthew Stafford - Stafford passing yards
9) St. Louis Rams Points Scored @ Washington Redskins Winning Margin - Rams points scored
10) Jake Delhomme vs. Matt Ryan - Ryan passing yards
11) Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves - Atlanta
12) Kurt Busch vs. Mark Martin - Martin has a better final position
13) Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers - Seattle
14) Tampa Bay Buccaneers TDs Scored @ Buffalo Bills Winning Margin - Buccaneers TDs scored
15) San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Los Angeles
16) Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers - Baltimore
17) Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos - Cleveland
18) Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears - Pittsburgh
19) Los Angeles Sparks @ Seattle Storm - Seattle
20) Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis
21) New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys - New York

September 19th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)A nice rebound day going 8-3-0 here and 2-0-0 for my Streak picks overall. Started out the day with a 3-0 win for Arminia Bielefeld on the road, skipped the next soccer match and got the come from behind win with the Marlins to finish the day. Florida rallied with 4 runs in the top of the 9^th and it proved just enough to avoid losing for the 10^th straight time at Great American Ballpark. We're back into the college football season tomorrow and hopefully there's at least one gimme screaming at you on the board. And so, with that, we continue, onward and froward to the picks.

Picks
1) Stoke City @ Bolton Wanderers - Stoke City win or draw
2) East Carolina Pirates 2^nd Half Points @ North Carolina Tarheels Winning Margin - East Carolina 2^nd half points
3) #8 California Golden Bears Rushing TDs @ Minnesota Golden Gophers Total TDs - California rushing TDs
4) #18 Utah Utes @ Oregon Ducks - Oregon
5) #19 Nebraska Cornhuskers @ #13 Virginia Tech Hokies - Virginia Tech
6) #3 USC Trojans Winning Margin @ Washington Huskies Points Scored - USC winning margin
7) Arizona Wildcats @ Iowa Hawkeyes - Iowa
8) San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Los Angeles
9) #17 Cincinnati Bearcats @ Oregon State Beavers - Cincinnati
10) Northwestern Wildcats @ Syracuse Orange - Syracuse
11) Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers - Los Angeles
12) #23 Georgia Bulldogs @ Arkansas Razorbacks - Arkansas
13) Texas Tech Red Raiders Points Scored @ Texas Longhorns 2^nd Half Points - Texas Tech points scored
14) Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Colorado
15) Floyd Mayweather vs. Juan Marquez - Any other outcome (non-decision)

Previews
2), 6), and 13)For these picks I tried not to think too much about them and instead just used the over/under and spread to figure what the result might be. From the over/under (denoted OU) and the Line (denoted Ln) one can figure the final score. Say Team A and Team B's final scores are denoted 'A' and 'B' then we can figure the final score from OU and Ln:

i) A + B = OU
ii) A - B = Ln
iii) 2×i) + ii) ==> 2A = OU + Ln ==> A = (OU + Ln)/2
iv) Insert iii) into i) OU/2 + Ln/2 + B = OU ==> B = (OU - Ln)/2

Now you can just plug in the over/under and the line to get the final scores. For East Carolina @ UNC the O/U is 44 and the line is 7.5 so the final score is 25.75 to 18.25, so ECU is figured to score 0 to 18 points, possibly all or none in the second half. Since 7.5 is less than half of 18 I'll go with the second half points.

USC is favored to win by 19 with 52 total points scored so (52-19)/2 = 16.5 is less than 19 so go with USC winning margin. You can figure of Texas Tech's points is more than half of Texas' points as well. Good luck, and go with your gut if you figure one team will score all their points in the first half or will just get whomped by more than the line shows.

September 18th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Wow, well the day started off miserably with FC Basel handling AS Roma 2-0. That might have been the biggest upset in Europa League play but Hamburg SV lost to Rapid Vienna 3-0! Everton scored 3 goals before the half so my 2 goals or fewer pick was quickly sunk there and out of frustration I picked the low % Beckett to give up fewer hits to the Angels than Hamels to the Nationals. Lost that one 5 to 7 and at this point my blog picks were 0-5. A run of good luck followed, picked up a win with 3 runs or fewer scored in the final 3¹/₂ innings of the Oakland game and won my next 5 blog picks to finish 5-5-0. I expect to do better on the new day so on to the picks.

Picks
1) Arminia Bielefeld @ MSV Duisburg - Arminia Bielefeld win or draw
2) Sheffield Wednesday @ Sheffield United - Sheffield Wednesday win or draw
3) San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh
4) Florida Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds - Florida
5) Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves - Philadelphia
6) Calgary Stampeders @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats - Hamilton
7) Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers - Texas
8) Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis
9) Boise State Broncos Winning Margin @ Fresno State Bulldogs TDs and FGs - Boise State winning margin
10) Los Angeles Sparks @ Seattle Storm - Seattle
11) New York Yankees @ Seattle Mariners - New York

September 17th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)God damn it, even though I spent another day above .500 with my picks here I ended up 1-3-0 with my actual Streak picks. I am just really poor at knowing which picks to take. I suppose I ought to go with the picks I'm least confident in. Started out nice with the over in the Spain-Poland game but then got shot down when Liverpool played sloppy as hell and won by the score of 1-0. Then the Mets and Braves played me when they failed to score in the 1^st inning but scored in 6 of the next 8 innings. Finally the Giants played tease as they came back from 4-0 only to fall short by a single run in the 9^th. A day better left forgotten and so on to the picks.

Picks
1) AS Roma @ FC Basel - AS Roma win
2) Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers - Detroit
3) AEK Athens @ Everton - 2 goals or fewer
4) Indiana Fever @ Washington Mystics - Washington
5) Cole Hamels (v. Nationals) vs. Josh Beckett (vs. Angels) - Beckett allows fewer hits
6) Florida Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds - Cincinnati
7) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes - Miami (FL)
8) Phoenix Mercury @ San Antonio Silver Stars - San Antonio
9) Cleveland Indians @ Oakland Athletics - Oakland
10) How Many Runs Will Be Scored In Innings 6 Through 9 (Indians @ Athletics): 3 Or Fewer vs. 4 Or More - 3 or fewer

September 16th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)A bit better day as I went 2-1-0 on my Streak picks. Started out with a last second loss with Greece, France made the go-ahead basket with 0.2 seconds remaining though they had led most of the game. I picked up my first win of the day with Real Madrid scoring a couple of goals late to win 5-2 while Chelsea defeated a very tough FC Porto 1-0. My second win came with Cliff Lee pitching a complete game. I might have thought twice about that pick but the Nationals on the road are usually bankable for mediocrity. Some interesting picks up tomorrow, some easy, some not. If it looks like a lopsided matchup it probably is and so on to the picks.

Picks
1) Poland vs. Spain - 153 points or more
2) Florida Marlins @ St. Louis Cardinals - Florida
3) FC Barçelona @ Inter Milan - FC Barçelona
4) Debrecen @ Liverpool - Liverpool win by 3 goals or more
5) Slovenia vs. Turkey - Turkey
6) New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves - 1 or more runs scored in the 1^st
7) Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox - Boston
8) Atlanta Dream @ Detroit Shock - Detroit
9) Sue Bird points and assists vs. Candace Parker points - Parker points
10) Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants - San Francisco