September 12th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)1-3-0 today and I did it by picking against my picks when they won and with them when they lost. Kevin Na got me on the winning track after Oswalt's abysmal performance last night. I followed that up with a ridiculous 40 pitch inning from Harden preventing him from going 5 innings. He gave up 1 run and still was at 100+ pitches after four. So with the pitchers fucking me I went against my own pick and took Tiger to birdie the par-5 15^th. Big mistake. Tiger overshot the green on his second approach shot and managed just a par. So finally I went with Cleveland to defeat Greinke. Greinke pitched well and allowed just 4 hits and 1 run in 7 innings but the Indians were in the game because, of course, Greinke received only a single run of support. Well, a couple blown walk off opportunities thrown out at home later the Royals finally got a home run and took the game 2-1. I would like to write more, but it would just sound like bitching, because it would be simple bitching. So on to the picks.

Picks
1) Tim Clark vs. Hunter Mahan - Clark cards a lower or equal front 9 score
2) Duke Blue Devils @ Army Black Knights - Duke
3) North Carolina Tarheels @ Connecticut Huskies - North Carolina
4) Stanford Cardinal @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons - Wake Forest
5) Manchester United @ Tottenham Hotspur - Tottenham Hotspur win or draw
6) Virginia Tech (v. Marshall) vs. Boston College (v. Kent State) - Boston College has a larger winning margin
7) Tiger Woods' 3^rd Round Score: 67 or lower vs. 68 or higher - 67 or lower
8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Michigan Wolverines - Notre Dame
9) Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals - Atlanta
10) Air Force Falcons @ Minnesota Golden Gophers - Air Force
11) LSU Tigers (v. Vanderbilt) vs. Auburn Tigers (v. Mississippi State) - LSU has a larger winning margin
12) Kyle Busch vs. Matt Kenseth - Busch has a better final position
13) USC Trojans @ Ohio State Buckeyes - USC
14) Detroit Shock @ Chicago Sky - Chicago
15) Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants - Los Angeles
16) Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres - San Diego
17) Oregon Ducks (v. Purdue) vs. Utah Utes (@ San Jose State) - Utah has a larger winning margin

September 11th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Aaarrgghghgh, well I got my 14^th W5+ with David Toms this morning but then my special ability kicked in. Instead of picking Chicago Sky, Florida Marlins, the 114 yards or under, or Chris Johnson in the Steelers game (all winners) I settled on Roy Oswalt to give up fewer hits than Derek Lowe. Well, Oswalt may claim he felt healthy enough to pitch but 10 hits and 6 runs in 2 innings do not lie. Even still Lowe teased me by giving up 9 hits in 5²/₃ innings before he got pulled. Oh well, another streak down the drain, but if I keep picking around .600 overall I should be back to W5 post haste. So on to the picks then!

Picks
1) Kevin Na vs. Retief Goosen - Na cards a lower or equal front 9 score
2) Serena Williams vs. Kim Clijsters - 2 sets played
3) Will Rich Harden Be The Winning Pitcher (Reds @ Cubs): Yes vs. No - Yes
4) Leeds United @ Southend United - Leeds United win
5) Tiger Woods' Score On The Par 5 15^th: Birdie (4) vs. Any Other Score - Any other score
6) Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians - Cleveland
7) Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ Toronto Argonauts - Toronto
7) Carl Edwards vs. Brad Keselowski - Edwards has a better final position
9) Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis
10) Colorado Buffaloes @ Toledo Rockets - Colorado
11) Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Arizona
12) Calgary Stampeders @ Edmonton Eskimos - Edmonton
13) Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants - San Francisco

September 10th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Today was full of down to the last second props with Belgium scoring in injury time, the last shot of the game putting Poland/Turkey over, the Yankees going up 4-2 with 4 runs in the eighth though by now we're used to the Rays bullpen blowing leads. They're at 4 or 5 leads blown in a row now. I continued my streak with that Euro basketball over/under then picked up another win with an easy Nationals hitting Cliff Lee prop. Today looks like some decent picks but I'm still hoping we get some soccer on the board. So on with the picks!

Picks
1) David Toms vs. Ernie Els - Toms cards a lower or equal front 9 score
2) Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays - Toronto
3) Phil Mickelson's Score On The Par 5 15^th: Birdie (4) vs. Any Other Score - Birdie (4)
4) Florida Marlins @ New York Mets - Florida
5) Fernando Gonzalez vs. Rafael Nadal - 4 or 5 sets played
6) Jonathan Dwyer's Rushing Yards (Clemson @ Georgia Tech): 114 Or Fewer vs. 115 Or More - 114 or less
7) Indiana Fever @ Chicago Sky - Chicago
8) Derek Lowe vs. Roy Oswalt - Oswalt allows fewer hits
9) Chris Johnson vs. Willie Parker - Johnson records more total yards
10) San Antonio Silver Stars @ Sacramento Monarchs - Sacramento
11) Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels - 8 runs or fewer

September 9, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Lost my meager three game streak yesterday on that European Basketball Championship over/under but did manage to get back a couple wins with Marin Cilic defeating Andy Murray and the Yankees walking off with Nick Swisher's second home run of the game. I can already tell those two soccer matches are trying to trick me into losing my streak while attempting to get two picks in for the price of one. By lucky charms I'll have some sort of winning streak come 7pm. And so on to the picks.

Picks
1) Belgium @ Armenia - 2 goals or fewer
2) Poland vs. Turkey - 156 points or more
3) Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh
4) St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers - 26 hits+runs+errors or fewer
5) Netherlands @ Scotland - Netherlands win
6) Novak Djokovic vs. Fernando Verdasco - 40 games or more played
7) Melanie Oudin vs. Caroline Wozniacki - Wozniacki wins 2-0
8) Cliff Lee's strikeouts vs. Washington Nationals' Hits Off Lee - Nationals hits off Lee
9) Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees - Rays win or lose by 1
10) United States @ Trinidad & Tobago - Trinidad & Tobago win, tie, or lose by 1
11) Detroit Shock @ Minnesota Lynx - Minnesota
12) Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros - Houston
13) Roger Federer vs. Robin Soderling - Federer loses 13 games or fewer
14) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Arizona
15) Who Will Score More Runs In Innings 4 Through 6 (Dodgers @ Diamondbacks) - Arizona

Previews
1) I like 2 goals or fewer since Belgium defeated Armenia 2-0 in Belgium and now they're on the road so I would expect them to either win 1-0, 2-0, or draw 1-1, or lose 1-0. The only 3 goal or plus scoreline I see having a chance of occurring here is a 2-1 Belgium win. The odds at Skybet have under at -137.5 (8/11) and the over at even odds (+100).

3) The Cubs are 30-40 on the road while Pittsburgh is 36-33 at home. Carlos Zambrano is a pretty solid pitcher, but his ERA is only 4.60 in day games this season compared to 3.17 in night games. Kevin Hart has given up 3 or more earned runs in all 6 of his starts since being acquired by Pittsburgh from the Cubs. He has also made it out of the 6^th inning three times. Chicago actually looks like a decent pick here, I just don't like their losing record on the road.

Click image for larger view.

8) Looking at the graph on the right one sees Cliff Lee has been causing NL teams to strike out more often relative to their season average than AL teams. The red line represents strikeouts in relation to season average while the black line represents hits per strikeout in that particular game. Whenever the black line is over the red line it represents a loss in the context of this prop. Wins are when the red line is over the black line. One can then see that overall Lee is 8-17 with one push so far this season and has lost three in a row after dominating the NL for four games after being traded to Philadelphia. The Nationals are at the top of the bottom third of MLB in terms of plate appearances per strikeout though at 5.27; they also average 4.33 plate appearances per hit, which is poor overall. The Angels lead the MLB in plate apperances per hit with one every 3.91 while the worst team is San Diego with one every 4.69 plate appearances, so Washington's 4.33 is closer to the bottom. Cliff Lee could dominate Washington and win the prop 4 to 3, but I think Washington will get at least 6 hits and strike out no more than 6 times.

September 8th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)I got to celebrate Labor Day with some manual labor, helped a friend move their furniture. Topped the day off with some curry and steak. As for my picks they went pretty poorly. I would have reversed my position relative .500 if I'd just stuck with my gut on tennis matches. So I'll stick with it today and on to the picks!

Picks
1) Germany vs. Russia - 140 points or less
2) York City @ Barrow AFC - Barrow AFC win or draw
3) Marin Cilic vs. Andy Murray - Murray will lose 14 games or more
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees - New York
5) Florida Marlins @ New York Mets - Florida
6) Indiana Fever @ New York Liberty - New York
7) River Plate @ Rosario Central - River Plate win or draw
8) Gael Monfils vs. Rafael Nadal - 41 games or fewer played
9) Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels - Seattle
10) San Antonio @ Los Angeles - 147 points or more

September 7th, 2009 Happy Labor Day!!

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(skip to picks)Let me just say the Rays bullpen is an embarrassment right now, and Joe Maddon is way too far down the Sabermetrics hole if he can't figure out who's actually pitching well on a given day rather than who the stats say should pitch well. Three straight games the Rays have blown a lead to Detroit in the final innings. This one was especially awful as Lance Cormier had just struck out a batter to start off the 9^th. Maddon replaces him and dude walks a man on first, next relief pitcher walks his first batter. Maddon puts in another reliever and he gives up a single, a grand slam, and a triple before finally Choate gets in the game and gets two outs with a man on third. So I lost my 5 game streak and just got it back to one with the Dodgers losing to San Diego 4-3. Labor Day looks to have some easier picks than Sunday, so good luck and on to the picks!

Picks
1) Phil Mickelson's Front 9 Score: 35 or lower vs. 36 or higher - 35 or lower
2) Robin Soderling vs. Nikolay Davydenko - Davydenko
3) Yankees' Hits Off Garza vs. C.C. Sabathia's Strikeouts - Sabathia's strikeouts
4) Deutsche Bank Championship Winner: Stricker, Goosen, or Harrington vs. Rest Of Field - Stricker, Goosen, or Harrington
5) Melanie Oudin vs. Nadia Petrova - Petrova
6) Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox - Boston
7) Monaghan @ Saint Patrick's - 3 goals or more
8) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Arizona
9) Cincinnati Bearcats @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights - Rutgers
10) Toronto Argonauts @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats - 47 points or more
11) Caroline Wozniacki vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova - Kuznetsova
12) Ricky Ray vs. Henry Burris - Ray passes for more yards
13) Miami(FL) Hurricanes @ Florida State Seminoles - Touchdown scored first
14) Miami(FL) Hurricanes @ Florida State Seminoles - 24 points or more scored in the 2^nd half

Previews

Soderling (-155) is favored and is 4-2 against Davydenko (+135), but only 1-2 against him on hard courts.

2) Well, it looks like both Robin Soderling and Nikolay Davydenko have had a bit of trouble defeating top tier opponents lately. Soderling has been knocked out of his past 3 events by #42 Lleyton Hewitt, #6 Juan Martin del Potro, and #40 Nicolas Almagro. Davydenko has been sent off by #23 Sam Querrey, #9 Gilles Simon, and #3 Andy Murray so that overall I would say Davydenko has been in better form. Head to head Soderling is 4-2 over Davydenko, but is 1-2 against him on hard courts. Checking on 5dimes.com Soderling is a -155 favorite while Davydenko is +135. The odds favor Soderling, but history and form favor Davydenko in my book.

Opponents' strikeout rate vs. Sabathia compared to average rate for season. Click image for larger view.

3) The graph on the left shows how poorly teams bat against C.C. Sabathia in terms of how often they strike out. If a team has a strikeout for every 5 batters faced and they strike out every 2.5 batters faced when Sabathia pitches then they are marked at 200% for that game. One can see teams are striking out 1.5 times to twice as often against Sabathia over the past month. One can also see that teams have struck out progressively more often each time they face Sabathia.

Tampa Bay struck out at 80% their season average against C.C. the first time they faced him and at 106% the second time. It would not be a stretch to see them strike out at 150% their average rate in today's game. Looking at this chart one sees Tampa Bay are the 3^rd worst team in terms of plate appearances per strikeout at 4.97, which would give Sabathia 6 strikeouts if he faces 30 batters. If he is pitching well he could double that rate, as he has done in 4 of his past 5 starts.

As for Matt Garza he has given up 4, 5, and 8 hits to the Yankees in three starts this season. If Sabathia can reach 10 strikeouts I think he'll win this prop and that's even if Garza has a bad game. The main caveat is Sabathia's day/night split. His K/9 is 8.41 in night games and only 5.9 in day games. I still like the strikeouts here as Garza's median number of hits given up in 27 starts this season is only 5.5.

4) There are 12 players at -10 to par or better with Stricker and Goosen at -13 and Harrington at -12. Stricker and Goosen have three wins between them this year. The other nine players have three wins between them. I like that the most experienced at winning are tied for the top spot going into this round.

5) I had Melanie Oudin up here originally because I saw she was a slight favorite on 5dimes, something like -110 to -105. Here on SkyBet they have both at -110, so there's money down on both sides. The thing is, Oudin is unseeded and is on a major cinderella run after defeating Dementieva and Sharapova. Nadia Petrova is still better and I find myself believing in Oudin less. These tournaments can be draining and I think Petrova will be a wall Oudin will fail to climb. Good luck.

St. Patrick's replay their fourth round draw home at Richmond Park after last month's fixture at Monaghan ended in a 0-0 draw.

7) This is a replay of a 4^th round Ford FAI Cup match between Monaghan United and St. Patrick's Athletic. The first match was played at Monaghan's home park and ended in a 0-0 draw. Reading a match report from stpatsfc.com one gets the impression scoring opportunities were to be had but none materialized. RTE carries a nice preview of the match. They note that St. Patrick's recently lost to Steaua Bucuresti 5-1 in aggregate and with their dropping to 7^th in the tables their only realistic avenue back into the major UEFA competitions next summer is through a Ford FAI Cup victory. The article mentions some injury concerns for St. Patrick's, with Ryan and Harris out on defense and O'Connor out at midfield. Looking at FAI Cup results for St. Patrick's one can see 10 of their 17 matches in the past 5 years have had 3 or more goals scored. One can also read a short match preview from the Monaghan point of view on their homepage. Note they lost 0-3 at home to First Division side Shelbourne in their most recent match. I think St. Patrick's could achieve a similar scoreline.

8) Max Scherzer won his last start against the Dodgers, in L.A., pitching 7²/₃ innings and allowing only 1 run. The Diamondbacks won that game 4-1. The last game Vicente Padilla pitched was against the Diamondbacks. Padilla allowed 1 run in 5¹/₃ innings and the Dodgers won 4-3. Right now Arizona is producing more on offense - 5.2 runs in their last 10, 5-5 record compared to L.A. who are scoring 3.5 runs in their last 10 with a 5-5 record. Being at home I think Scherzer can pull off another solid performance and win for Arizona in a close game.

September 6th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Pretty glad to get back on track after that awful Friday picking around 30%. I went 4-0-0 on my picks today. I started out with Ian Poulter threatening to break my streak. Stewart Cink eagled #2 and then Poulter missed a 3' putt and a 6' putt, both of which would have brought him level with Cink and won the prop. Fortunately, on the final hole, Poulter sank a 61-foot putt. Incredible! After that I decided to let it ride and picked up another win with Gregg Paulus throwing only one TD pass. My third win of the day came with Yovani Gallardo fanning 6 batters to 5 for Matt Cain. Then I wrapped it all up with Brazil winning convincingly 3-1. There look to be few gimmes tomorrow so best of luck feeling out the upsets and favorites. And on to the picks!

Picks
1) Kenya @ Mozambique - Kenya win or draw
2) Morocco @ Togo - Morocco win or draw
3) Sean O'Hair vs. Jim Furyk - O'Hair cards a lower or equal 3^rd round score
4) Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay
5) San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers - Milwaukee
6) Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox - Chicago
7) Kim Clijsters vs. Venus Williams - Clijsters
8) Mississippi Rebels @ Memphis Tigers - 54 points or fewer
9) Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ Saskatchewan Roughriders - 51 points or fewer
10) Kyle Busch vs. Mark Martin - Martin has a better finish
11) San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers - 8 runs or fewer
12) Taylor Dent vs. Andy Murray - 28 games or more played