July 8th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)Damn, 3-0-0 today and it seemed like I was never going to get off of that losing streak. Started off with a dominating Astana team riding together for a strong 4^th stage at the Tour de France, then went with the low scoring efforts of Saints Athletic and Cork City, and finished off with Justin Verlander, the AL strikeouts king. Oh and also, there's a nice blog by TheThoroughbred, he's got the odds and usually the reason behind "Why should this huge underdog even have a chance?" which is really nice. Not every pick, every day, but hell c'mon man. So on to the picks.

Recaps

Team Astana Takes Stage 4 But Armstrong Just Misses Out On Yellow Jersey

Astana 46:29; Garmin-Slipstream 46:47; Saxo Bank 47:09

Team Astana was the fastest on this short stage in the outlying areas to the west of Montpellier riding together as a unit and avoiding the crashes which plagued so many other teams.

``Astana won the 39km lap of Montpellier but ended two tenths of a second shy of wiping out Fabian Cancellara's lead and putting Armstrong top of the podium. The Texan's outfit needed to beat Cancellara's Saxo Bank team by more than 40 seconds to put him in yellow. Astana beat Garmin-Slipstream into second with Saxo Bank in third. Several teams suffered crashes because of the difficulty of the course, but seven Astana riders stayed together until near the end before five raced clear to beat the Garmin team of Millar and Wiggins by 18 seconds. Astana's early pace had suggested they would be fast enough to put Armstrong in yellow but an earlier strong finish by his Swiss rival's Saxo Bank outfit proved crucial. There was a dramatic wait when Astana finished before Tour officials confirmed Cancellara had kept the overall lead and afterward he laughed: `That is Swiss timing!'"

Read more....Astana Stand AloneMap & Commentary

Ryan Guy Nets All Three Points For Saints At Turner's Cross

St. Patricks 1 - 0 Cork City

These two sides have played three times this season and the road team has won all three times.

``A late goal from St Patricks Ahtletic's American striker Ryan Guy gave Jeff Kenna's side three vital points in front of 2158 fans at Turner's Cross tonight. Partridge almost cost his side an early goal when his weak back pass to his goalkeeper was too short, leaving Cork striker Denis Behan in the clear. The forward should have scored but his shot from eight yards struck the legs of Gary Rogers and rolled behind for a corner kick after 16 minutes. The late winner came when Guntar Siligailis lost the ball to O'Connor, and he fed Guy with a great pass. The striker then thumped the ball past Dan Connor from 20 yards, much to the delight of the travelling Dublin fans."

Read more....

Verlander Picks Up Ninth Win With A Little Help From Thames, Polanco, And Cabrera

Detroit Tigers 8 - 5 Kansas City Royals (Justin Verlander 11 K, 7 H)

After struggling to keep up with Kansas City's hits Verlander must have thought "Who do these guys think they are? I'm Justin Verlander!" because he struck out five in the next two innings without giving up a hit.

``Verlander (9-4) struck out 11 on Tuesday night to run his AL-best total to 141, the most by a Detroit pitcher before the All-Star Game in 37 years. He gave up five runs and seven hits over six innings. The last Tiger to have as many strikeouts as Verlander before the break was Mickey Lolich, who had 152 before the 1972 All-Star Game. Detroit's Brandon Lyon, Bobby Seay and Joel Zumaya combined to pitch two innings of scoreless relief and Rodney pitched the ninth for his 21st save in a row dating to last season."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Who Will Win Stage 5 Of The Tour de France: Mark Cavendish vs. Any Other Rider - Cavendish
2) Which Game Will Record More Runs: Pirates @ Astros vs. Braves @ Cubs - Braves/Cubs
3) Rosario Central @ Belgrano de Córdoba - Rosario Central win or draw
4) Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers - Kansas City
5) Manny Ramirez's Total Bases: 0 or 1 vs. 2 or more - 2 or more
6) Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets - Los Angeles
7) St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers - Milwaukee
8) Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox - Chicago
9) Honduras @ United States - Honduras win, tie, or lose by 1 goal
10) Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels - Texas
11) What Will Be The Result Of Josh Hamilton's 3^rd At Bat: Hit or Walk vs. Any Other Result - Any other result

Previews
2) Two games, four teams, four pitching staffs. First we have the Pittsburgh Pirates playing the Houston Astros. Pittsburgh is starting sophomore pitcher Charlie Morton who has done well so far this season with a 2.65 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. His last start was a 6 inning shutout of the Florida Marlins down at Landshark Stadium. His numbers are terrific through four starts this season, but that he accrued a 6.15 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 15 starts last season would suggest he's due to get lit up for 4 or more runs early on. The Astros are starting Wandy Rodriguez who has had some really rough starts so far this year but has been generally dependable pitching in Houston (except for this game where he gave up 4 home runs to Colorado). There have been 5 and 9 runs scored in the first two games in the series between these teams, and the Pirates are averaging 3.7 runs in the past week while the Astros are averaging 4.0 runs.

The other game involves the Atlanta Braves visiting Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs. The Braves are starting 34 year old Nippon league transplant Kenshin Kawakami who has been better than his 4.46 ERA and 1.38 WHIP suggest. He did give up 4 earned runs and 1 unearned to the Washington Nationals in his last start as he is trying to ignore the effects of a bruised neck which he sustained off a line drive against the Yankees two weeks ago. The Cubs are starting relief pitcher Kevin Hart who was called back up after being optioned to AAA Iowa to fill a hole in the rotation as Ryan Dempster recovers from a fractured toe he injured while jumping over the dugout railing to celebrate a win. Hart has been a solid reliever in four games this season but he had some major lapses last year and has been in AAA for most of his career. There have been 4 and 6 runs scored in the most recent games between these two teams with pitchers like Javier Vazquez, Jurrjens, Zambrano, and Randy Wells going. The Braves are averaging 5.6 runs per game this past week and the Cubs are averaging 4.3 runs per game.

I like the Cubs and Braves to rack up more runs as they are better offensive teams than Pittsburgh and Houston on paper. Wandy Rodriguez should be able to do well against the Pirates and Charlie Morton, well, he's kind of the wildcard there. At Wrigley Kenshin Kawakami may be dominating, but if the Cubs are continuing to hit well he won't be shutout dominating. The wildcard in that game is Kevin Hart. Is he a starting pitcher prospect stuck in a relievers role for the time, or is he just one of the more durable relievers the Cubs are forced to use in a pinch?

3) Not a whole lot to say here except that Rosario Central are battling to avoid relegation to the Second Division and Belgrano de Córdoba are playing for promotion to the Primera. Sure, Rosario Central finished in 10^th place, but that was in the Clausura portion of the season. In the Apertura portion of the season they finished in 19^th place. Not only that, but the Argentine league uses an averaging system, so that the teams with the 3^rd and 4^th worst three season average in the Primera are up for relegation while the 3^rd and 4^th best 3-year average teams in the Second Division are up for promotion. Odds-wise Belgrano de Córdoba are favored to win at +130, but Rosario Central are not far behind at +165 with the draw at +220. In terms of percent odds that's about 61.5% for the win or draw and 38.5% for Belgrano to win. The Argentine league uses points (3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss) and not aggregate score for these promotion/relegation playoffs so I think Rosario Central will be looking to lock up their safety early by taking a win on the road here.

Proportion of games with 'N' total bases for Manny Ramirez this season and last season. Click above for larger version.

5) Looking at the chart on the left Manny Ramirez went 0-fer or for one single in 50.3% of his games and he's only done that in 42% of his games this season, a definite indication he's due for a streak of low output games in the future. Even Albert Pujols gets zero or one total bases in about 50% of his games. I'm still thinking Ramirez can get an extra base hit in this game, however, as he'll be going up against Oliver Perez and the New York Mets bullpen.

Perez is coming back from a knee injury after three rehab starts in low A Brooklyn and AAA Buffalo. Prior to that injury he was having major problems, recording a 9.97 ERA and 2.26 WHIP in 5 starts spanning 21²/₃ innings. He racked up a 2.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 8 innings with Brooklyn, but struggled in his lone AAA start, giving up 5 hits, a home run, and 3 earned runs in 5 innings with Buffalo. Prior to the injury he was having problems with his velocity and with leaving pitches up in the strike zone, and while he has improved in his rehab starts he is still struggling with his control. The plus side is that Ramirez is likely to see some pitches up and in the middle of the zone he could hit for the distance, but the downside is he may be walked two or three times in this game, only getting a couple of chances to actually hit. Overall, I'd say the Dodgers are a terrific pick for extending ones streak and that Ramirez, 2 singles or an extra base hit is a decent pick for those seeking the monthly.

July 7th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)An improvement today as I only lost twice from three picks. I managed to pick 5 winners and 4 losers, but boy oh boy were they some losers. The Reds lost by 21 runs, and I also took the Orioles who managed one hit and walked on to base exactly zero times. At least Kalmar FF came through for me. And so on to the picks.

Recaps

Rasmus Elm's Brace Sends Malmö To First Home Defeat

Kalmar FF 2 - 1 Malmö FF

Malmö FF took a 1-0 lead into the half. Rasmus Elm scored two second half goals against Malmö FF to lead Kalmar FF to victory. Elm was named to the Starting XI after a strong showing with the Swedish U-21 squad in ithe FIFA Championships and it proved to be the right decision.

``Två kanonskott. Två mål. Rasmus Elm visade att hans lysande insatser i U21-EM inte var någon tillfällighet efter att ha sett till att Kalmar vände och vann med 2-1 borta mot Malmö. "Nu har jag ännu fler bra minnen härifrån", sa matchvinnaren efter de dramatiska slutminuterna."

Read more....Box Score

Phillies Record Most Lopsided Victory Since 1897

Philadelphia Phillies 22 - 1 Cincinnati Reds

21 hits, 22 runs, and every Phillies starter had a hit. Not since the late 19^th century had Philadelphia defeated an opponent so heavily. There would be photos of the Phillies here but they were mostly just of men rounding the bases. Over and over again. Definitely one for the books.

``Jimmy Rollins led off Philadelphia's first with a walk and Victorino followed with a liner into the right-field seats. Cueto struck out Utley and Ryan Howard lined out, but the next eight batters reached. Werth singled and Dobbs drove one out to right. Cueto then hit Pedro Feliz and walked Carlos Ruiz before Hamels ripped a double down the right-field line to score both runners. Rollins doubled to left-center, scoring Hamels for a 7-0 lead. Cueto left after he walked Victorino. Danny Herrera came in to face Utley, who hit a towering drive to right-center to make it 10-0. The previous worst defeat for the Reds, baseball's first professional franchise, was 26-6 on July 26, 1892. That also was against the Phillies."

Read more....Box Score

Christ, Baltimore Sucked

Seattle Mariners 5 - 0 Baltimore Orioles

OK, by this point I was just getting frustrated at taking the absolute worst performers in a feeble attempt to extend my streak.

``Jarrod Washburn tossed a one-hitter for his ninth career complete game, leading the Seattle Mariners to a 5-0 victory over the Baltimore Orioles on Monday night. Washburn faced just 28 batters, becoming the second Mariners pitcher in team history with a one-hit shutout with no walks (Jim Beattie, 1983 vs. Royals). Washburn recorded the first one-hitter at Safeco Field and 10th in franchise history."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Which Team Will Win Stage 4 Of The Tour De France Team Trial: Astana vs. Any Other Team - Astana
2) St. Patricks @ Cork City - 2 goals or fewer
3) Tampa Bay Rays (v. Blue Jays) vs. Boston Red Sox (v. Athletics) - Boston win margin
4) Kansas City Royals hits off Verlander vs. Justin Verlander strikeouts - Verlander strikeouts
5) Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets - New York
6) Albert Pujols vs. Prince Fielder - Fielder records more total bases
7) New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins - New York
8) Chicago Sky @ Sacramento Monarchs - Sacramento
9) Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners - Seattle
10) Florida Marlins @ San Francisco Giants - San Francisco
11) How Many Runs Will Be Scored In The 7^th Inning: 0 runs vs. 1 or more - 0 runs

Previews

March 13, @Cork City 0 - 1 St. Patricks May 9, @St Patricks 0 - 3 Cork City

2) St. Patricks Athletic return to Turner's Cross today, the site of their first victory of the season, a 1-0 defeat of Cork City F.C. Conditions were wet on that day in Cork and they look to be wet again today with thunderstorms forecast for the region through the afternoon and evening. Since that time Cork City have earned their revenge with a 3-0 win at Richmond Park in Inchicore. One can see the highlights of that match by following this link. Two of the goals were scored on corner kicks with a third first half goal scored by Faz Kudozovic from a fair distance. Shortly afterwards St. Patricks had a man sent off and the scoring was more or less completed.

Looking at the tables for the League of Ireland one can see the goals scored and allowed for each team. Both Cork City and Saints average 2.4 goals scored, in total, in an average match. At Turner's Cross, however, Cork City are scoring only 0.8 goals per match and allowing 0.6 goals (1.4 total), while away from home St. Patricks are scoring only 0.6 goals and allowing 1.1 (1.7 total). Cork City has professed a desire to play strong defense as an important factor in their ability to win the League championship.

We want to win the league, and we won’t stop in our pursuit of the league title, but the main thing for us at the moment is to keep clean sheets and try to build another run....
---Cork City coach Paul Doolin

Both sides are facing their share of injury concerns. Mark Quigley (Fw, jaw), Mark Leech (Fw, leg), Gary Dempsey (Mf, leg) and Damien Lynch(Df, ankle), and John Lester (Mf, suspension) are all out for St. Patricks who will also see Dave Partridge (Df) and Darragh Ryan (Df) return. Robert Mezeckis (Df, Achilles) and Billy Dennehy (Fw, hamstring) are still sidelined for Cork City, but Shane Duggan (Mf) will return to the lineup.

Overall it would seem that Cork City should be able to win this match, but I do not think they will be able to score from set pieces as well as they did in their 3-0 victory over St. Patrick's. With important offensive components like Quigley and Dempsey out for Saints they should be focused on keeping Cork out of the net as a low scoring draw would be a good result for them at this point in the season.

Click above for larger view. Note, it's rotated on it's side, click here for unrotated image.

4) Well, in terms of K/9 and hits per nine innings (H/9) Justin Verlander is the best pitcher the Royals have faced in their last 15 games. Of the 15 pitchers they've faced they have had more hits than been struck out 11 times. The four pitchers who limited their hits were Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Roy Oswalt, and Armando Galarraga. Looking at the graphs on the right Floyd and Danks had the same number of hits off of them as batters struck out and Galarraga and Oswalt were the only pitchers to win this prop against the Royals. The graphs also show how pitchers fared against the Royals as compared to their season averages. About half of the pitchers Kansas City faced, including 4 of the last 5, gave up fewer hits to the Royals than they have on average. Only about a third of the pitchers have struck out more Royals than they do to the average team they face. To me it would seem this prop will be more about the Royals getting hits more than avoiding strikeouts. Verlander, even on a bad day, should be expected to get 5 or 6 strikeouts tonight and 8 to 10 if he's having a good night. So the question will be, how many hits will he give up? Well, he's given up 6 or more hits in 9 of his 17 starts, so about half the time. 5 to 8 hits seems to be right around par for Verlander over the past month. He's won this prop in 10 of 17 starts and lost in only 5, so while his recent performance this month suggests the result will be close I think he's a bit more likely to record more strikeouts. He's been wicked against right handers this season so one may wish to check Kansas City's lineup to see if they have 4 or 5 right handers in there for the game. Good luck.

Albert Pujols' (red) and Prince Fielder's (blue) total bases over their last 30 games. Click for larger view.

6) The graph to the left shows Pujols' and Fielders' recent total base production. One thing that stuck out to me is that Fielder has only one run of three games with 2 or fewer total bases while Pujols had a couple such runs of three games and a stretch of five games with two or fewer total bases. Pujols also has four multi-homer games in his last 30, and has had just one single in his last two games, so he would seem to be due to go off for a huge game today... or he could rack up another stretch of three games without doing much. Both starting pitchers have been doing well with Adam Wainwright recording a 1.27 WHIP in his last three starts in 22 innings and Yovani Gallardo recording a 1.06 WHIP in 21¹/₃ innings. Fielder is only 5 for 21 against Wainwright in his career, with one home run and four singles, a .381 slugging average while Pujols is 2 for 8 against Gallardo with a home run and a single, a .625 slugging average. Honestly, this is another one where if I were betting money I would have to put it down on Pujols. I am putting faith in Gallardo over Wainwright in picking Fielder here.

July 6th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)1-4-0 yesterday as I continue to fail at ticking a box. If I'd been able to pick all 5 MLB games I'd have been 5-0. Went down with 3 sets for the Federer/Roddick match. Yea sure Federer started flicking shots wide in the first set and Roddick gave up a 5-1 lead in the second set tiebreak but that was an epic match that would never have gone straight sets without some ridiculous luck. Roddick represented his coach, his nation, and himself and I hope we get to see him in the finals of some more Slams in the near future. I thought Roddick played very well, not just using his power, but also softer shots, slices and the like, to work Federer around the court. He broke Federer more often than he was broken and I think if he had won we'd be talking about how much he deserved to win. Certainly nobody deserved to lose that match.

My next loss came with Gefle IF and from what I can gather from Swedish-language news they were inches away from victory as Jonatan Berg hit the crossbar on two separate occasions. Then got a win with Minnesota, followed by a loss with both WNBA home teams losing. Detroit was a tough overtime loss but the Sparks just failed at playing basketball, gave up over 100 points. Yikes. So then, on to the picks.

Recaps

Federer Makes History In Epic Fashion

R. Federer def. A. Roddic 5-7 7-6(6) 7-6(5) 3-6 16-14

Andy Roddick's disappointment was palpable and nobody could fault him for that. It was almost a shame Federer's record setting victory had to come at such a price, and yet it feels most fitting that such an amazing effort were required to become amazing.

``Federer's discomfort at being so brashly challenged on a court he has come to regard as his own was beginning to show as the second set moved into a tiebreak. As the Centre Court audience roared in disbelief, two errors by the Swiss left Roddick with four points for a two-set lead. Now was the time for Federer to unveil the genius that had stood him such good stead in previous Wimbledon finals - and he responded in brilliant fashion, winning the next six points in a row as, for the first time, Roddick's nerves betrayed him."

Read more....Match StatsFederer InterviewRoddick InterviewRoddick's Bitter MisstepPhotos

Jonatan Berg Is Twice Denied Victory By The Crossbar

Gefle IF 1 -1 BK Häcken

After BK Häcken scored they let off the gas and let Gefle dominate. Jonatan Berg scored on a free kick and had two other shots rebound off the crossbar and BK Häcken held on for the draw. BK Häcken have never lost to Gefle IF in something like 7 matches.

``Jonatan Berg var matchens klart bästa spelare i kvällens oavgjorda match mellan Gefle och Häcken. Geflespelaren svarade för lagets kvitteringsmål med en läcker frispark och var vid två tillfällen en hårsmån från att skjuta samtliga tre poäng i hamn, men båda gångerna var ribban i vägen."

Read more....Box Score

Blackburn Nearly Records Complete Game Shutout Of First Place Tigers

Minnesota Twins 6 - 2 Detroit Tigers

Rick Porcello was pretty solid but for one inning, and the defense didn't help him out there either.

``Nick Blackburn (7-4) took a shutout into the ninth inning before left fielder Denard Span dropped a line drive for an error and Brandon Inge followed with a two-run home run, his 19th. Blackburn won for only the second time in his last six turns, but he's been pitching plenty well. Establishing himself this season as Minnesota's best starter, Blackburn has yielded three earned runs or less in each of his last nine appearances and completed six innings or more each time. This was his third complete game in his last four starts. He gave up seven hits and struck out six. The Twins scored all of their runs in the fourth against rookie Rick Porcello (8-6), who threw seven shutout innings at them during a defeat in Detroit on May 5^th."

Read more....Box Score

Broxton, Smith Miss Chance To Eclipse Sun

Connecticut Sun 95 - 92 Detroit Shock (OT)

Kara Broxton missed a pair of free throws and Katie Smith missed a shot with 10 seconds to go. The Sun made their shots when they counted most and won the game.

``Mike Thibault never doubted his decision to leave a roster spot open for Sandrine Gruda. She immediately proved her coach right, scoring a career-high 23 points in her season debut and Erin Phillips scored six of her 19 points in overtime as the Connecticut Sun beat the Detroit Shock 95-92 on Sunday night."

Read more....Box Score

Phoenix Passes Century Mark In Second Half Blowout Of L.A.

Phoenix Mercury 104 - 89 Los Angeles Sparks

Wow, impressive effort by Phoenix or pathetic effort by L.A., either way 100 points in 40 minutes is pretty good.

``Los Angeles held a 53-45 lead with 38 seconds gone in the second half, but Bonner had 12 points and six rebounds in the third quarter. The Mercury led 81-70 at the end of the period. Phoenix began the fourth quarter with an 11-0 spurt. The Mercury also made 31 of 37 free throws in the game. Parker, who gave birth to a daughter on May 13, had six points and four rebounds in 20 minutes."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Kalmar FF @ Malmö FF - Kalmar FF win or draw
2) How Many Home Runs Will Be Hit (Blue Jays @ Yankees): 3 or fewer vs. 4 or more - 4 or more
3) Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs - Atlanta
4) Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies - Cincinnati
5) Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros - Houston
6) San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Arizona
7) Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels - Los Angeles
8) Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners - Baltimore
9) How Many Runs Will Be Scored Before The 5^th Inning (Marlins @ Giants): 3 or fewer vs. 4 or more - 3 or fewer

Previews

1) Kalmar FF visit the Swedbank Stadion to take on Malmö FF with a win for either side elevating them in the tables. Kalmar FF are currently two points ahead of Malmö FF, in 8^th and 9^th place, respectively. Though Malmö have traditionally been one of the best teams in the Allsvenskan it has been Kalmar which has seen the most recent success finishing 1^st in the Allsvenskan last season. They will be playing in the Champions League qualification round next week while Malmö will simply focus on righting ship domestically.

Kalmar FF had gotten off to a terrible start after their breakthrough season last year picking up only two points from their first five matches. They've managed to turn things around since then and are currently one of the better teams in the Allsvenskan on the road with a 1-3-2 (W-D-L) record and +1 goal differential (10 GS:9 GA). Malmö FF were expected to be a strong side this season but have defied those experts' predictions and are yet waiting to break into the upper half of the table. At home they have yet to lose a game outright, but have also failed to win all three points more often than not. Malmö FF have a 2-4-0 (W-D-L) record with a +4 differential (8 GS:4 GA) at Swedbank Stadion this season.

Recent Form
Malmö FF	Kalmar FF
GAIS Göteborg (2:2)	GAIS Göteborg (2:2)
Örebro SK (0:0)	IFK Göteborg (1:2)
Helsingborgs IF (0:1)	Hammarby IF (4:1)
Malmö FF (home); Kalmar FF (away)

Looking at the table to the left one can see that neither side has been terribly successful lately with Kalmar FF doing well to pick up draws on the road and Malmö FF continuing to struggle to win at home. As far as injury concerns go both teams will face some significant players from their midfield. For Malmö FF Miljan Mutavdzic(M) and Jimmy Durmaz(M) are still injured while Robert Åhman-Persson(M) is doubtful. Kalmar FF will have to do without Mikael Eklund(D), Marcus Lindberg(D), Tobias Carlsson(D), Erik Israelsson(M) and winter acquisition Lourival Assis(M) who all remain injured except for Carlsson who is ill.

(potential) Malmö FF Starting XI (4-4-1-1): Jonas Sandqvist; Ulrich Vinzents, Jimmy Dixon, Gabriel, Ricardinho; Guillermo Molins, Robert Åhman-Persson, Daniel Andersson, Jiloan Hamad; Wilton Figueiredo; Agon Mehmeti
(potential) Kalmar FF Starting XI (4-2-3-1): Petter Wastå; Emin Nouri, Joachim Lantz, Stefan Larsson, Petter Lennartsson; Tobias Eriksson, Henrik Rydström; Daniel Sobralense, Rasmus Elm, Abiola Dauda; David Elm

I feel Kalmar FF are the stronger side this season and with so many injuries to the midfield of each team I expect the offenses to generate few goals.

Prediction: Malmö FF 1 - 1 Kalmar FF

Graph showing total home runs at Yankee Stadium when Pettitte started. Table showing home run production for NYY and TOR over the past week, and general stats for the season. Click for larger view.

2) Essentially it would be an exceptional game for Andy Pettitte and Ricky Romero to start, pitch 6 or 7 innings apiece, and combine for 4 home runs conceded, even at Yankee Stadium. Pettitte is giving up a home run every 42 pitches swung at on average and Romero is conceding a home run every 30 pitches swung at. Batters are swinging at less than half of their pitches this season, however. Romero has given up 9 home runs in 12 starts this season, and five of those were in two games where he was returning from a right adductor strain. Pettitte has given up 12 home runs in 16 starts, though 10 of those have been in 9 starts at Yankee Stadium. Overall, I think 3 home runs are most likely but have a gut feeling Toronto will be able to belt off an extra one.

Mike Hampton pitches against San Diego on June 30th after returning from a minor groin injury. He'll look to continue that success against Pittsburgh tonight (0.90 career ERA, 3-0 record against this season).

5) The Houston Astros will host the last place Pittsburgh Pirates tonight at Minute Maid Park after finally managing to score some runs against the Giants in their last series. Facing Sadowski, Lincecum, and Randy Johnson the Astros managed to bat only .175 with a .309 slugging average. That slugging average is fairly impressive considering but was due mainly to the three home runs they hit off of Johnson in the final game. They'll hope that was not simply a poor performance on Johnson's part and I'm inclined to agree. They may have just broken out of a slump, but it's tough to avoid slumping when going up against Lincecum and, apparently, against Sadowski who's debuted in the Majors with 13 scoreless innings pitched.

Houston will be starting Mike Hampton tonight and they have to be pleased he's recovered from a groin injury in time to face his personal whipping boys. Houston is 6-3 against Pittsburgh this season with three of those wins coming with Hampton pitching. Hampton has a 4-5 record along with a 4.44 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this season, but against the Pirates he has a 3-0 record, a 0.90 ERA, and a 0.75 WHIP. It's not just this season either. Over his career he is 13-3 (.813) with and a 2.44 ERA.

Virgil Vasquez will be making his third start for the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight in the spot vacated by the disgruntled Ian Snell. Vasquez has been fairly good in his first two starts this season, giving up two earned runs to Kansas City in his first start and three earned runs, including two homers, to the Chicago Cubs in his second. Those numbers are similar to the ones he put up at AAA Indianapolis, except that he is walking more batters and giving up more home runs, just limiting the runs as he did in AAA. I imagine at some point, and soon, he will be unable to keep his opponent from having a huge inning. Judging by Hampton's success against the Pirates over the years Houston may not need that to happen to earn victory tonight, but it sure wouldn't hurt. As long as Hampton can do his thing the Astros should be fine tonight.

9)	It looks like the real wildcard here is Sean West who can be either rock solid or solid shit. Click for larger version.

Ouch, Cueto failed me big time and the Phillies are hitting as if they just made a deal with the devil. Good luck with the evening picks. Bergesen is something like 5-2 and I don't expect the Mariners to keep hitting as well as they have been, but who knows eh?

July 5th, 2009 Picks

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(skip to picks)2-4-0 yesterday as my picks were almost 100% shyte yesterday. There were no previews and that reflected a lack of looking into the matchups on my part. There will be some previews today but still fairly sparse as I'm trying to get a radar forecast map up you can use to check out the local conditions around each MLB ballpark. Followed by a gadget that will allow you to generate graphs on the fly, like `compare Reds and Cardinals' batting average over the past week'. I had a good weekend but the celebrations are coming to an end. Lost my six game streak with Venus Williams to start the day. The Williamses both say Venus played well and tried hard but I'll maintain she looked hampered by her knee and did not try and force the issue. Went on to lose with Rocco Mediate, then got a fine come from behind victor with the Nationals, then back on the losing track with Detroit and Oakland only to end up back on top with the Galaxy. So on to the more mystifying picks.

Recaps

Venus Knocked Out Of Orbit As Serena Captures Third Wimbledon

S. Williams def. V. Williams 7-6(3) 6-2

I only saw the tiebreak and the second set but I saw Venus Williams stumble twice trying to get to a ball and look generally defeated, as if she did not believe in her own game, for most of that time. Kind of a disappointing final overall.

``[T]his contest between the current oligarchs of the women's game was conducted for much of the first set at a comparatively sedate pace and in front of a muted audience as both finalists held serve comfortably, with the occasional explosion coming from a Serena ace. Not until the eighth game did the excitement build, when Serena went two break points down. Here was the opportunity for Venus to impose her authority. But the first break point escaped her when she got a bad bounce and the second got away, too, when, faced with a gaping court, she overhit her forehand. Having been reprieved, Serena pressed the power switch and came up with successive aces. She was off the hook and was never subsequently in the slightest danger." Read more... HighlightsMatch Stats

``Venus could hardly take a point from Serena’s serve, and it became increasingly clear that if the set went as far as the tiebreak Serena would be in good shape. But when Venus had her chance to prevent the set running its full course – with two break points at 4-3 – she failed to convert. The tiebreak came and Serena bludgeoned her way through it, finishing off with a beautifully judged lob to take it 7-3. They watched a second set where it soon became clear that Venus – so dominant throughout these Championships – was rapidly losing confidence. Her key weapon, her serve, was losing speed, while Serena was continuing to amass aces without double faults. At 2-3 a Venus mis-hit off the frame of her racket brought up Serena’s first chance to break in the entire match. In the event she did not need to do anything to convert it, because Venus delivered a double fault. Invulnerable to mental pressure in any other match throughout the fortnight, she could not hold it together at the crucial moment against her sister." Venus CracksVenus InterviewSerena Interview

Fred Couples Moves Into Top 25 While Rocco Languishes Near 50^th

Front 9 scores: Fred Couples 34, Rocco Mediate 36

Rocco Mediate and Fred Couples were close, within one stroke, for most of the round, until the 7^th hole. Couples was more consistent carding par on 5 of the first 6 holes with only one bogey while Mediate had more birdies and bogeys combined than pars. On the seventh hole Couples birdied to take a two stroke lead, but Mediate came back with a birdie of his own on the eighth to get back to within a stroke. Both players played the ninth hole nicely, staying in the fairway off of the elevated tee and leaving themselves short putts for birdie. Couples made his and Mediate missed from just under 7 feet and Couples had the lower front 9 score by two strokes.
LeaderboardCouples' ScorecardMediate's Scorecard

Nationals Rally With Four Run 8^th

Washington Nationals 5 - 3 Atlanta Braves

Tommy Hanson had a terrific game but the Braves' bullpen couldn't hold on.

``Hanson departed with a 3-1 lead after seven innings and was in line for his fifth straight victory before the Braves bullpen blew up, halting Atlanta's winning streak at a season-high five. "It was remarkable," said Nationals manager Manny Acta. Mike Gonzalez (3-1) loaded the bases with one down in the eighth on a pinch-hit single by Ronnie Belliard and a pair of walks before Peter Moylan relieved and yielded a two-run, game-tying single to Ryan Zimmerman. O'Flaherty replaced Moylan and was greeted by Dunn's decisive single up the middle on the first pitch he threw. Josh Willingham followed with an RBI single to left."

Read more....Box Score

Ordonez Gives Tigs The Lead But Mauer, Morneau Snatch It Right Back

Minnesota Twins 4 - 3 Detroit Tigers

Ordonez's home run was the only real offense the Tigers had all game long. It was nearly enough.

``In the eighth against Brandon Lyon (3-4), Nick Punto poked a soft single over the outstretched glove of shortstop Adam Everett to allow pinch-runner Matt Tolbert to score on a head-first slide just ahead of the relay throw. Matt Guerrier (4-0) pitched one inning for the win, and Joe Nathan wrapped it up with his 22nd save to pull the Twins within three games of the first-place Tigers. His slider zipping and diving in the zone, Liriano recorded 13 straight outs during the middle innings he's had so much trouble with this year and took a 2-0 advantage into the seventh. After two quick singles to start the frame, though, he lost the lead."

Read more....Box Score

Francisco, Valbuena Make Life Hard For Mazzaro And A's As Tribe Win Two Straight

Cleveland Indians 5 - 2 Oakland Athletics

Vin Mazzaro did a fine job, except when it came to the bottom of Cleveland's batting order.

``Oakland took a 1-0 lead on a first-inning sacrifice fly by Matt Holliday. The Athletics left the bases loaded when third baseman Jhonny Peralta made a leaping catch of a line drive by Ryan Sweeney that would have scored more. Both teams turned in good defensive plays. The Athletics stopped a Cleveland threat in the fifth when Valbuena singled with one out and tried to score from first on a double by Francisco off the left-field wall. But shortstop Orlando Cabrera took the throw from center fielder Ryan Sweeney and relayed the ball home, where catcher Kurt Suzuki blocked the plate and tagged out Valbuena. No. 8 and 9 hitters Luis Valbuena and Ben Francisco went a combined 6 for 6 to help Cleveland defeat the Oakland Athletics 5-2 on Saturday night."

Read more....Box Score

New Addition Eskandarian Makes Big Impact As Galaxy Defeat Revolution For The First Time

Los Angeles Galaxy 1 - 0 New England Revolution

Nice move by the Galaxy to pick up Eskandarian, now if Beckham and Donovan can every get along and on the pitch together they're suddenly a dangerous side.

``LA heavily controlled the opening minutes of the match, establishing the tone of the match right from the start. It didn't take the Galaxy long to get on the board, either. In the eighth minute Todd Dunivant sent a high ball into the box from about 30 yards out on the left flank, and Eskandarian timed the long cross perfectly. He barely stayed onside to receive the pass, then volleyed the ball in mid-air from 8 yards away past Revolution goalkeeper Matt Reis to give LA the score it needed. LA attacked aggressively, even to the point that defender Omar Gonzalez had a chance at a rare scoring opportunity in the 30th minute, when Jovan Kirovski sent a cross into the box from the right side. Gonzalez was all alone in space, but his header went directly at Reis."

Read more....Box ScoreRevolution Point of View

Picks
1) How Many Sets Will Be Played Between Roger Federer And Andy Roddick: 3 sets vs. 4 or 5 sets - 3 sets
2) Mike Weir vs. Joe Ogilvie - Weir cards a lower front 9 score
3) BK Häcken @ Gefle IF - Gefle IF win
4) St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds - St. Louis
5) New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies - Philadelphia
6) Who Will Win The AT&T National - Tiger Woods vs. Rest Of Field - Rest of Field
7) Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins - Minnesota
8) Drogheda United @ Sligo - Drogheda United win or draw
9) Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants - Houston
10) Connecticut Sun @ Detroit Shock - Detroit
11) Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers - Texas
12) Phoenix Mercury @ Los Angeles Sparks - Los Angeles

Previews

Roger Federer (top) will try to remain as confident as ever as he faces a newly resurgent Andy Roddick.

1) Today is the final day at Wimbledon and the gentleman's singles champion will be decided. Roger Federer will be facing off against Andy Roddick whose presence in the final is not entirely astonishing but not entirely expected either after he bowed out in the second round last year. Wimbledon's preview points out some of the history going against Roddick here, most notably his 2-18 record against Federer. Three of those losses have been at Wimbledon, two in the finals and one semifinal match, with Federer dropping a single set (4-6). Federer has been playing strong in this tournament as well having dropped only one set en route to the final. Roddick has been a bit more beatable as he has dropped six sets total with his only straight sets victory being over Tomas Berdych in the fourth round. Federer is a huge favorite to win this match at -900 to +550 for Roddick with a straight sets victory being the single most favored result.

3) BK Häcken visit Strömvallen in Gävle to take on Gefle IF in the 13^th week of competition in the Allsvenskan. A look at the tables shows Gefle IF are in 6^th place with a 5-4-3 (W-D-L) record while BK Häcken have relegation concerns as they sit 3 meager points off of danger in 13^th place with a 4-2-6 record. In terms of home form Gefle IF are only a middle-of-the-pack team at this point in the season with a 3-2-1 (W-D-L) record and a +3 goal differential, scoring just over a goal per match and allowing just under a goal. BK Häcken are one of the worst in the league when it comes to away matches, sporting a 1-0-5 record and have scored only 2 goals while giving up 10.

Recent Form/Results
#8 Gefle IF	#14 BK Häcken
#1 AIK Solna (1:0)	#10 Djurgårdens IF (0:1)
#4 IF Brommapojkarna (3:2)	#16 Örgryte IS (1:0)
#12 Örebro SK (2:0)	#10 AIK Solna (0:2)
Gefle home results; Häcken away results

The table to the right shows each sides recent form, at home for Gefle IF and away for BK Häcken. The rankings are based on home results for BK Häcken's opponents and away results for Gefle IF's opponents. One can see that Gefle IF have won their last three at home and against some of the best away teams in the Allsvenskan while BK Häcken have struggled on the road against teams with comparable road records to Gefle IF. As far as injury concerns for either side, Mattias Östberg, Muhammad Ali Kahn, and Daniel Forsell will all be missing from BK Häcken's backfield while Gefle IF will be dealing with the absences of Yannick Bapupa at midfield and Jonathan Hellström on defense. Considering how few goals BK Häcken have scored on the road (two) they may have a difficult time keeping up with Gefle facing a weakened defense.

7) The AL Central leading Detroit Tigers look to steal a series at the Metrodome in Minnesota after taking the 16 inning marathon and losing to a rehabilitated Francisco Liriano. Today's game will pit 20 year old rookie Rick Porcello against Nick Blackburn who has been very good this year with a 3.10 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Looking at those links will show the batter vs. pitcher stats for this game and they seem to favor Detroit in a major way. One has to keep in mind Blackburn is pitching his best season in his young career, hoewever, while Porcello's numbers are based on a single game. One of the main reasons I favor the Twins in this matchup is that Porcello has been struggling a bit lately. Looking at the pitchFx data for Porcello one can see that his changeup and 2-seam fastball were on the inside half of the plate for left-handed batters in his stellar performance against the Twins on May 5^th but that he was leaving those same pitches up in the middle of the plate against Oakland in his last start where he was lit up for 5 runs in 4¹/₃ innings. This should be a concern for Porcello and the Detroit pitching coaches, but it remains a problem to be fixed in his game.

If Porcello has figured out what's been off lately the Twins could be in trouble.

I think Detroit could be dangerous in this game as they are slumping at the moment with a .226 batting average and .379 slugging average and could be on the rise starting today. Blackburn is hit for a number of fly balls and Detroit certainly has the power to take them the distance. I expect Porcello to continue to struggle with his location, however, and for Morneau, Mauer, and Span to continue hitting well. With the addition of Anthony Swarzak to the bullpen I think Minnesota will be strong enough to defend any lead they may take into the latter innings.

July 4th, 2009 Picks (U.S.A. - 233 Years Strong)

(toggle)

(skip to picks)3-0-0 today and .750 on my picks in this here blog. Started out with Federer continuing his domination of the men's draw with a straight sets victory over Tommy Haas, then Anthony Kim who completely lost the accuracy on his drive but was just good enough, and finished with the Atlanta Dream even after they killed my W4 the other day. This is my eighth 5 game streak or better this round and I'll just keep going with my strategy of picking games without considering the loss. If I'm lucky, I'm lucky, and recently I've been pretty lucky. So on to a bit more o'da luck and a few more o'da picks.

Recaps

Federer Keeps Date With History

R. Federer def. T. Haas 7-6(3) 7-5 6-3

I think the photos tell the story of the match. Federer was calm and in control while Haas was pushed to the limit just to stay mildly competitive.

``Federer, the five-time champion, can never have served better than he did today. He never permitted Haas even a peek at a break point, landed 75% of his first serves on target and won 89% of his first serve points. Even his second serve was lethal, gathering him an astonishing 81%. After being turfed out of the quarter-finals by Haas, Novak Djokovic forecast that the 31-year-old was capable of surprising Federer. It did not happen, well though Haas himself served throughout. But he was embarking on mission impossible against a genius who permitted him a mere 10 points in three sets of perfection. Trailing 4-3, Haas was foot-faulted on his first serve at 15-all. Clearly disturbed by this, the first such call of the match, his concentration wavered. Four break points were saved but a fifth chance for Federer proved too much as Haas followed a double fault by netting a backhand approach. It was a tame way to drop serve after all that had gone before. So Federer stepped up to serve out for the match. He did it to love, the 10th time this had happened on a day that was just about perfect for him."

Read more....Match StatsFederer InterviewHaas InterviewRecord Setting Roger

Kim A Stroke Better Than Furyk For Nine Holes, And Through Round Two

Front 9 Scores: A. Kim 34, J. Furyk 35

Anthony Kim played a solid drive on the first hole to take a one stroke lead, then hit up and down from the rough for most of the front nine, still claiming a couple of birdies. His bogey on #9 along with Furyk's birdie there nearly drew the two players even.

``Defending champion Anthony Kim couldn't build on his course-record 62 from the opening round. He played in the afternoon, after Woods set the target, and caught him briefly before missing too many fairways and having to settle for a 70 that put him two behind. Jim Furyk, adding more star power to the leaderboard, had a 67 and was alone in fourth. Most eyes were behind Pampling, however, with the prospects of a Woods-Kim shootout at Congressional. Kim is regarded as the most promising young American to challenge Woods, and despite a swing that deserted him midway through the round, he's only two behind."

Read more....LeaderboardKim InterviewFuryk InterviewPhotos

Dream Realized As Atlanta Surpass Inaugural Season Win Total With Five

Atlanta Dream 72 - 65 Washington Mystics

Against a less talented opponent than Minnesota the Dream were good enough to get their fifth win of the season.

``Alana Beard had 16 points for Washington, which has dropped three of four and missed its first nine 3-point attempts before Matee Ajavon hit two straight in the final 2 minutes. The Mystics began the game with the WNBA's third-best percentage beyond the arc at 39.4. The Dream, who had lost four of five, forced Washington into 28 turnovers, a season high for the Mystics that resulted in 23 points. After winning just four games as an expansion team last year, Atlanta improved to 5-6 this season."

Read more....Box Score

Picks
1) Serena Williams vs. Venus Williams - Venus Williams
2) Trelleborgs FF @ Hammarsby - Trelleborgs FF win or draw
3) Fred Couples vs. Rocco Mediate - Mediate cards a lower front 9 score
4) Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs - Milwaukee
5) Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals - Washington
6) Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees - Toronto
7) Anthony Kim vs. Jim Furyk - Furyk cards a lower third round score
8) New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies - New York
9) Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins - Detroit
10) DC United @ Columbus Crew - DC United win or draw
11) Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians - Oakland
12) Jeff Gordon vs. Jimmie Johnson - Gordon has a better finishing position
13) Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers - Tampa Bay
14) New England Revolution @ Los Angeles Galaxy - Los Angeles win