Odds On Most Any Matchup: 5dimesSkyBetBetFairBetUS

And So It Goes....

Overall: 7-1-0 (0.875)
Basis Function: Daubechies4

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Monday, June 15, 2009

June 15th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)2-0-0 today with the 2 goals or fewer in the Sud Afrika match and the Yankees steamrolling over the Mets. It was a good day overall for my picks and with another couple like that I can start to push the red days off that two-week graph over there. I was kind of hoping Orlando would win the Championship, but I can get behind rooting for Kobe and Gasol. No reason they shouldn't win it again next year too really. And if my Utah Jazz draft another OSU big man (B.J. Mullens), well let's just say we have an overabundance of 7 footers we don't utilize already, why add another? Well, on to the picks then.



Recaps

Hosts South Africa Graciously Keep Iraq From Stepping In It
South Africa 0 - 0 Iraq
Iraq had only a few real scoring opportunities and denied Bafana Bafana at every other turn.
``Hosts South Africa and Iraq shared the spoils in the opening game of the Fifa Confederations Cup in Johannesburg. The hosts missed a hatful of chances with Kagisho Dikgacoi unlucky to see a goalbound header accidently blocked on the line by team-mate Bernard Parker. Earlier South Africa's Macbeth Sibayo saw his 20-yard shot tipped round the post by Iraqi keeper Mohammed Kassid. Striker Parker saw two efforts saved by Kassid while Thembinkosi Fanteni headed Teko Modise's corner over the bar. Substitute Katlego Mashego should have done better for South Africa when finding himself one-on-one with Kassid. But as was the case for much of the game the Iraq keeper proved to be unbeatable, doing well to smother the ball at the feet of Mashego."
Read more....Box ScoreIn DepthAround The World

Yankees Chase Off Santana, Stokes, Anyone In A Mets Uniform
New York Yankees 15 - 0 New York Mets
``Today was a terrible day and that's about it. I didn't locate my fastball today the way it's supposed to be located."
--Johan Santana on today's performance
I think Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Hideki Matsui all kept their slugging averages against Johan Santana above .500 in this one.
``Johan Santana was way off track in the Subway Series. Derek Jeter and the New York Yankees hammered Santana in the worst start of his career, routing the Mets 15-0 on Sunday for the biggest interleague blowout between the Big Apple rival. They [the Yankees] needed only four innings to set a season high for runs in a game, building a 13-0 cushion for A.J. Burnett (5-3). The Yankees finished with 17 hits, three by No. 9 batter Francisco Cervelli, and pulled several stars before the seventh."
Read more....Box ScoreYankees' ViewMets' View



Picks
1) Marc Gicquel vs. Steven Darcis - Gicquel
2) Brazil vs. Egypt - No, Kaka or Robinho will not score
3) Fabrice Santoro vs. Robert Kendrick - Kendrick
4) Cal State Fullerton vs. Virginia - Cal State Fullerton
5) Italy vs. United States - Italy win
6) LSU vs. Arkansas - 11 runs or more
7) Milwaukee Brewers @ Cleveland Indians - Cleveland
8) Prince Fielder vs. Victor Martinez - Martinez records more total bases
9) Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants - Los Angeles
10) Which Team Will Record More Hits In The 6th Inning: Angels vs. Giants - Giants

Previews
1) World #40 Marc Gicquel faces off against #72 Steve Darcis in the first round of the Ordina Open today. Both players are coming off grass court tournaments over the weekend, with Gicquel losing in the first round at Halle to #32 Rainer Schuettler and Darcis losing in the quarterfinals at Queen's Bridge to #90 Juan Carlos Ferrero. Darcis advanced into the quarterfinals past Gael Monfils who withdrew from the tournament. Both Queen's Bridge and Halle were ATP 250 Series events with Darcis advancing further past lower ranked players and Gicquel bowing out to #32 Schuettler. Gicquel defeated Schuettler in straight sets at Roland Garros, however, meaning he's either seen a drop in play in the past week or that Schuettler is simply a weak clay court player.


Marc Gicquel seeks his first match victory on grass this year at Ordina. Gicquel was runner up at this event last year.

Darcis is the more successful ATP Tour player of the two as he has two ATP Tour wins at the young age of 25 while Gicquel has yet to win any ATP event at 32. Still, Gicquel is a regular on the ATP Tour while Darcis still plays a number of Challengers events. I think Gicquel's overall experience will serve him well in this match as will his experience of reaching the finals at Ordina last year before losing to current #4 David Ferrer in straight sets.

Over Darcis' short career he is 2-0 against Gicquel, with clay court wins coming in the Netherlands in 2007 and 2008. Darcis has won 4 out of 5 sets played against Gicquel, though he has won only 29 of 53 games played. So far this year statistically they are nearly identical in terms of 1st serve percentage, service points won, and so on. Oddsmakers have the odds on the two dead even at -120 each.


Brazil are peaking at the right time and are ready to defend their Confederation Cup crown.

Egypt hope to regain some of the form that saw them become African champions in 2007.
2) Brazil are all set to defend their Confederation Cup title from 2005 with Egypt simply looking to avoid the `whipping boy' status imparted on New Zealand by Spain yesterday. Egypt won the 2007 African Cup to qualify for this tournament but are currently sitting in last place in their World Cup qualifying group, though they are only through 1/3 of their matches. There are previews from a number of sources all over the internet, click here for a sampling of the best.

"We're expecting a very hard match, a lot harder than a lot of people are expecting back in Brazil. Most of the Egyptian players aren't that well known around the world, but one thing's for sure; you don't win two consecutive continental championships just by chance. You need a lot of quality to do that." ---Brazil coach Dunga
"Egypt cannot afford to fear Brazil in our opener because if we enter the first match with such a feeling, we will show the same fear against the other teams." ---Egypt coach Hassan Shehata

Sportsbook SkyBet has Brazil as heavy favorites with over 2.5 goals scored favored at -150 and under 2.5 goals at +110. They also have markets on who will score in the game. Fabiano is most favored at -110 with Robinho next at +100 and followed by Kaka and Pato at +135 each. Looking at the tables below Brazil has been in excellent form, scoring 12 goals in their past 5 matches. Kaka has scored one of those goals, a penalty kick against Uruguay and Robinho has two goals, one in the friendly against Italy and another in their most recent match against Paraguay. It should be noted that Fabiano was suspended for the match against Paraguay and played limited minutes against Italy, however. As for Egypt, the Pharaoahs have been in relatively poor form, conceding 6 goals in their last 5 international matches, all against moderately weak African sides. I think the Seleção will play at just under 100% and Egypt may surprise them with their defense. Brazil should score at least 2 goals, but I would be surprised if they put on 5 goals like Spain did against the All Whites. Considering Kaka has not scored in 5 matches except on penalty kicks I think he is less likely to be the receiver in an attack. Fabiano is the main focus of the offensew with Robinho the secondary threat. Kaka will play on the wings and take fewer shots than either of the two. I think Egypt will be the more motivated club, with something to prove, and favor Kaka and Robinho to be out of the scoring in this match.

Recent Form/Results
BrazilEgypt
6/11#13 Paraguay (2:1)6/7#66 Algeria (1:3)
6/6#17 Uruguay (0:4)5/30#80 Oman (0:1)
4/2#88 Peru (3:0)3/29#92 Zambia (1:1)
3/29#39 Ecuador (1:1)2/11#35 Ghana (2:2)
2/10#4 Italy (2:0)1/23#84 Kenya (1:0)
All matches took place in 2009; Scores given in (home:away) format.



The U.S. will field a strong squad against Italy but still have to prove they can win away from North America.

Italy will be without experienced center back Cavanno but are still one of the elite teams to beat.
5) Both Italy and the United States come into this Confederation Cup tournament in good position for World Cup qualification. The Yanks currently sit in 2nd place, two points behind Costa Rica. They must finish strong to remain in 3rd place or better and a strong showing away from the friendly fields of the U.S.A. would be a good start to that. Italy lie in the first position of their World Cup qualifying group but as the defending World Cup champions their place is already confirmed. Still, they have struggled some of late and would like to show they remain one of the best in the world. Of course, according to their coach that only applies to a certain point:

``This first game with the United States is obviously the most important for us. They are a quality opponent, eager, and a strong team that are difficult to break down. We need to keep totally focused on this first game because it will set the rhythm for us. It could make or break us." ---Italy coach Marcello Lippi

There are a number of previews from sources such as the BBC and goal.com with most predicting a win for Italy, but not without a major fight from the Americans. Click here to peruse them at your leisure.

From what I can gather it sounds as if the United States will be taking the opportunity to try out some new formations and tactics while Italy will simply be looking to find that dominating groove. From the table below it appears as if Italy is a bit out of sorts and the United States should have a very good chance at securing a draw here. It is only their poor road form which has me favoring Italy strongly to come out the victors in this match.

Recent Form/Results
#4 Italy#14 U.S.A.
6/10#82 New Zealand (4:3)6/7#35 Honduras (2:1)
6/6#27 N. Ireland (3:0)6/4#41 Costa Rica (3:1)
4/1#34 Ireland (1:1)4/2#75 Trinidad & Tobago (3:0)
3/28#112 Montenegro (0:2)3/29#106 El Salvador (2:2)
2/10#5 Brazil (0:2)2/12#24 Mexico (2:0)
All matches took place in 2009. Scores given in (home:away) format


7) The Milwaukee Brewers continue Interleague play after dropping two of three games at home to the Chicago White Sox. The Brewers batted .238 with a .376 slugging average in those three games and were outscored 14 to 12. Their opponents tonight, the Cleveland Indians, continue their Interleague homestand after winning 2 of 3 against the St. Louis Cardinals, outscoring the Red Birds 11 to 6 thanks to some fantastic pitching. The Indians also had some fairly mundane batting numbers with a .242 batting average and .385 slugging average. The Brewers scored about half a run below their average this season, but the Indians were worse, over 1 run below their season runs per game average. The Indians' batting numbers were also further off their season marks. Overall, Cleveland is scoring more of their base runners and doing it on fewer total bases than the Brewers meaning they have better base running, better batting with runners in scoring position (RISP), or both.

The Indians will try and continue their Interleague success with a celebration of `Major League'.

The Cleveland Indians may need every bit of offensive apptitude working for them with right hander Carl Pavano starting on the mound. Pavano has recorded a 5.40 ERA and 1.34 WHIP through 13 starts this season. Pavano is coming off a one of the worse starts by any starting pitchers in the league this season, giving up 9 earned runs from 11 hits in only 42/3 innings to the Kansas City Royals. The only bright spot being that Pavano still only walked one batter. Pavano rarely walks a batter, as in his next prior start where he walked two batters while shutting out the White Sox for 9 innings, and has a 3.6 K/BB ratio. His counterpart this evening will be Dave Bush. The Milwaukee Brewers pitcher has a 4.58 ERA and 1.26 WHIP through 13 starts this year and is coming off a decent start against the Rockies. In that game he gave up only 3 earned runs in 5 innings but it proved to be one run too many as the Brewers lost 4-2. It was his first game pitching since being struck in the elbow against Florida on June 4th.

Dave Bush has given up a home run every 5 innings he's pitched on average this season and his ground ball to fly ball ratio reflects that. Cleveland will probably be without the services of Grady Sizemore in this game, but still have a lot of skill in the lineup with players like Martinez, Choo, and Peralta. With Bush pitching it seems these players could expect to scratch out at least a 3 runs with only 4 or 5 hits. I think the Brewers will need a more solid performance from their lineup to match the Indians offensively. With quality starts at Fenway (Boston), Yankee Stadium (New York), and against the Tampa Bay Rays this season Pavano has the greater potential for shutting his opponent down. Milwaukee has a much better bullpen, especially in terms of home runs conceded, however, so they should not be counted out of the game if only trailing by those three runs.

8) Although Victor Martinez is 0-for-6 against Dave Bush in his career he simply gets hits in more games than Prince Fielder. Fielder has never faced Carl Pavano and looking at these graphs I would not be surprised if he goes 0-fer today. In fact, a zero to zero push would not surprise me at all in this one.


Total bases, game-by-game.
Martinez's numbers have gone down significantly in the last month. Fielder's numbers have been off and on all season.


Proportion of games with 'N' total bases for each player.
Fielder (1-3 TB: 39%); Martinez (1-3 TB: - 59.4%)
Posted by Elijah Gregory at 1:21 AM 0 comments
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Sunday, June 14, 2009

June 14th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)0-2-0 today, thanks to Cal State-Failing Titanically and the prowess of Antonio Bastardo linking up with the Red Sox. Well, that's just fine because I'm eating Coco Puffs and celebrating the official recognition by IUPAC of `Element 112'. Of course, until they can figure out how to create trillions of these bad boys at a time (at the very least) it'll continue to be a news story with some interesting applications to particle physics and little utility to the rest of us.



Recaps

With Two Outs Razorbacks Cut Titans Down To Size
Arkansas Razorbacks 10 - 6 Cal State-Fullerton Titans
The Titans' offense could only scratch out a few runs here and there against Arkansas' Dallas Keuchel.
``Home runs by Zack Cox and Andy Wilkins keyed an early offensive outburst by Arkansas, and Razorback starter Dallas Keuchel threw six solid innings to lead the Hogs to a 10-6 victory over Cal State Fullerton in the opening game of the 2009 College World Series. ... Tschepikow led off the third with a single and came home when Cox blasted a two-out home run deep into the right field bleachers for a 4-0 lead. ... The Razorbacks chased Ramirez with more two-out magic in the fourth. Fullerton coach Dave Serrano lifted Ramirez, and brought in Tyler Pill, who was greeted with a two-run single by Lyons to make it 6-2. Wilkins followed with a back-breaking three-run blast to right to make it 9-2."
Read more....Box ScoreQuotes And Notes

Rain Delays Inevitable As Sox Put Philly In The Red
Boston Red Sox 11 - 6 Philadelphia Phillies
Remember ``Wings"? Antonio's life was comically tragic in that show. Here, Antonio's life is not so comic. After throwing fewer than half his pitches for strikes and giving up 5 runs it's just tragic. And his last name isn't Scarpacci.
``Jason Bay and Jacoby Ellsbury homered, Julio Lugo had four hits, and the Boston Red Sox overcame another shaky outing by Matsuzaka to beat the Philadelphia Phillies 11-6 on Saturday night. Phillies starter Antonio Bastardo (2-1) issued three walks and Philadelphia made three errors in the first. Bay hit a long drive out to left-center for his 17th homer. With two runners on, Lugo lined a two-out single to center that skipped past Victorino. Both runners scored to put the Red Sox up 5-0."
Read more....Box Score



Picks
1) Iraq vs. South Africa - 2 goals or fewer
2) Who Will Win The St. Jude's Classic: Brian Gay vs. Any Other Player - Gay
3) New York Mets @ New York Yankees - N.Y. Yankees
4) Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Detroit
5) Arizona State vs. North Carolina - Arizona State
6) Jimmie Johnson vs. Tony Stewart - Johnson has a better finishing position
7) Chicago White Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers - Chicago
8) Spain vs. New Zealand - 4 goals or more
9) Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies - Colorado
10) Houston Astros @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Arizona
11) Southern Miss vs. Texas - 10 runs or fewer
12) Los Angeles Lakers @ Orlando Magic - Los Angeles
13) St. Louis Cardinals @ Cleveland Indians - Cleveland
14) The Result Of Albert Pujols' 3rd Plate Appearance: Hit/Walk vs. Other - Other
15) Final Basket Of Game 6 Of The NBA Finals: 2PFG vs. 3PFG/FT - 3PFG/FT

Previews

South Africa hosts the Confederation Cup ahead of the World Cup in 2010.
Iraq won the Asian Cup in 2007 but still has much to prove to the world.
1) When Iraq takes the pitch at converted Ellis Park to face hosts South Africa it will be as defending Asian Cup champions, which they won in 2007. Unfortunately, they have not been able to further that success as they have been eliminated from World Cup qualification after going 2-1-3 (W-D-L) in their round three group. Only one of their 6 matches had 3 or more goals scored, a 2-1 away win over China. South Africa have qualified for the World Cup automatically as the host country, but would have been eliminated from contention in round 2 of the Confederation of Africa qualifying as they went 2-1-3 in their group with Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Equatorial Guinea. Only one of their six matches had 3 or more goals scored, a 4-1 home win over Equatorial Guinea. Looking at the table below shows the results of each sides last 5 matches, international friendlies but one Gulf Cup match for Iraq, a competition they failed to advance past the Group Stage in as well.
Recent Form
South AfricaIraq
Poland (1:0)Poland (1:1)
Portugal (0:2)Qatar (0:1)
Norway (2:1)South Korea (1:2)
Chile (0:2)Saudi Arabia (0:0)
Cameroon (3:2)Kuwait (1:1)
Most matches took place at neutral sites
FIFA has a decent preview of the match, with thinks to other tidibits of information. They don't offer much in the way of predicting the outcome, however. I thought the quotations selected for each coach were interesting.
``We have three games and if we win against Iraq, we will have a lot of confidence. That is what we are aiming at," ---South Africa coach Joel Santana

``We have tried our best to prepare the team for the FIFA Confederations Cup despite the short period that we had. Our team have good players who are skilful, and I'm really optimistic that we can deliver good performances in the tournament," ---Iraq coach Bora Milutinovic

Odds for this match have South Africa as a heavy favorite to win with a low scoring match being the money favorite. SkyBet has under 2.5 goals at 8/11 (-135) with over 2.5 goals at even (+100) odds. I don't see either of these sides fielding particularly potent offenses and would not be surprised to see a 1-0 South Africa win or 1-1 draw.

2009 PGA Tour Results
PlayerTo Par
Brian Gay-14
Bryce Molder-13
Robert Allenby-11
Paul Goydos-10
Heath Slocum-9
Vaughn Taylor-9
Woody Austin-9
Click players' names to see their results in 2009
2) Brian Gay is now 18 holes of solid golf away from his second tour win in as many months and his first since winning by 10 strokes at the Verizon Heritage. With a victory he would earn a spot at the U.S. Open at Bethpage Black next weekend. A quick look at the leaderboard shows Gay with a one stroke lead after having led each of the previous three rounds. His closest competitor is Bryce Molder, followed by Robert Allenby, Paul Goydos, and three others five strokes back. Of those top seven Gay is the only one to have won an event on the Tour this season, with Goydos, Slocum, and Allenby the only players with one top five finish this year.

Brian Gay has been the most successful golfer of the group including himself and those chasing him and a big part of that success has been his ability to get himself out of tough spots. He had to scramble to save par on a number of holes to maintain his lead in the 3rd round, as he talks about in this interview yesterday. Bryce Molder is the player with the best shot in that he has the least ground to make up. He was an all-star golfer in college and overcame a number of congenital defects, such as being born with no left pectoral muscle, to get where he is today. Of the group within 5 strokes of the lead Brian Gay is also the best performer in the fourth round. He is the only one in the group whose final round score is better than his score the first three rounds on average in 2009.

▐▀▌▐▀▌▐▀▌Click On The Image Below To Track The Top Three Groups ▌▀▐▌▀▐▌▀▐


4) The Detroit Tigers wrap up a three game Interleague series with the Pittsburgh Pirates today at PNC Park. The main sideline for the Tigers in this game is the play of Dontrelle Willis and how he'll do in his first at bat in over a year. For his career Willis is batting .234, with a .359 slugging average which would make him a very strong presence at the bottom of the order.

Dontrelle Willis throws out Podsednik from the ground in a game this season.
``I hope he pitches well because I want to see him hit." said Tigers manager Jim Leyland about Willis' upcoming National League start. And there lies the problem. Nobody wants to see Willis take just one at bat, he will probably need two or three to get that RBI extra base hit. To do that he will need to pitch a solid game and that has been a problem for him. Nearly two weeks ago he lasted only 21/3 innings against the Red Sox. He started out strong, but proceeded to walk in two runs on his way to giving up 5 earned runs off of zero hits. That's right, Willis allowed the Red Sox zero hits but still walked in a couple of runs, left the bases loaded when he came out, and had all three of those runners score. He's been difficult to hit off of when he gets his pitches in the strike zone, but his location has been awful all season for the most part. The one notable exception was a little gem he threw against the Texas Rangers back in May, shutting them out for 61/3 innings and allowing only one hit while walking only 2 batters. It's hard to say why Dontrelle has such a hard time staying under control, but when he does he is a terrific pitcher.

Starting opposite Willis will be Ross Ohlendorf. Ohlendorf has been up and down this season, though not to the extremes Willis has, on his way to recording a 4.82 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. His last couple of starts have been difficult for him, a 6 inning effort against the Braves with a game ERA of 4.50 and a 41/3 inning outing against the Mets with a game ERA of 10.38. He'll be facing a Tigers team who have struggled to score lately, with only 7 runs in their last three games. They are batting around their season average of .259 in that time, and have a .450 slugging average in those games so they are getting the hits, but have been unable to string them together, have had poor luck hitting into double plays, and have exercised some questionable base running in those games.


Either Dontrelle Willis will have to keep from losing it mid-way through or the Tigers will have to see a major resurgence in their offense.
Ohlendorf has yielded 11 home runs in 71 innings this season so there is a decent chance the Tigers will put some runs on the board with a homer, but if they cannot put men on base in front of that it will do them little good.

Pittsburgh is in the same boat, only their lack of scoring this season has stemmed from a lack of power in the batting order. They have had some breakout games in that department, including their game yesterday which saw two of their league trailing 36 home runs this season, but overall it is not something they can depend on. The Pirates are 11-24 this season when they do not hit a home run and Willis is not big on giving up homers with fewer than one every 8 innings pitched this season. What the Pirates can do is scratch out runs. They will need to continue batting near .300 as they have for their past three games. If they do that and Willis continues his trend of losing control in the middle of games and walking men on base it could get ugly very quickly for Detroit. Overall the Pirates have the stronger bullpen, especially when it comes to giving up home runs. Detroit should still be able to score off the Pirates' bullpen, but a major run would not be expected. Overall, I don't see Pittsburgh repeating their power hitting performance from yesterday, and would set 10 hits as a high mark for them in this game. Their biggest chance for victory lies in a Willis meltdown or a big hit off the Tigers' bullpen. Those things are certainly not unlikely to happen so I would not feel too nervous about picking the Pirates today. If Willis does not meltdown however, I would not give Pittsburgh a snowball's chance in hell.

7) It's funny, the main storylines for both the White Sox and the Brewers today revolve around pitchers in their bullpens. For the Brewers it is relief pitcher Trevor Hoffman's proximity to a 27 year old franchise record. He has pitched 18 scoreless innings so far this season and would break the record with his 19th today. For the White Sox it is the new addition of 2007 draft pick Aaron Poreda who pitched his first Major league effort on Friday, going for 22/3 innings while allowing only one hit. Unfortunately for both pitchers they were brought in facing 7 run deficits. That both games in this Interleague series between the Brewers and White Sox have become blowouts belies the fact that today's game has all the makings of a bullpen duel, though perhaps only after the starting pitchers give up more than their fair share of runs.


Both teams have talented bullpens, but will their performance even matter? Only if Looper or Buehrle, or both, continue their shaky ways.

Chicago will start Mark Buehrle today, easily their most dependable starter all season long. Even the steady Buehrle has been having some trouble lately, however. In his last start, against Detroit, he gave up 5 earned runs from 4 hits in 61/3 innings while walking an unusually high 4 batters. In the game before that he pitched decently against Oakland, going for 8 innings but still giving up 4 earned runs, and the White Sox lost badly as they could not generate a single run in support. He's been strong enough that it's hard to imagine he'll have the same trouble throwing strikes, but two such games in a row is already unlikely yet it's happened. Fortunately for Buehrle the Brewers appear to be headed into an epic slump. They were dominated by Jose Contreras who had just returned from a stint in the minors after an awful start to his season. Sure, he probably managed to improve some wrinkles in his mechanics in the lower pressure environment but Milwaukee surely played their part.

On the other side is Braden Looper. He has been called an innings eater, meaning he has the ability to go deep into games, saving the bullpens. That won't be necessary for a talented Brewers' bullpen that is itching at a chance to show their stuff. Looper has given up 12 home runs in 68 innings, or one every 5 or 6 innings, so he might get chased off early. Ideally he would be worked deep into the count by White Sox batters hitting foul, letting the bullpen in early without giving up runs, but the White Sox are actually hitting well in their past three games with a .414 slugging average resulting in 1.57 total bases per hit, or a double every other hit or so. To me that suggests runs will be scored by the White Sox.

Overall I think Buerhle has a better chance of limiting runs by the opposition. If he walks too many batters he could get into trouble, and the Brewers are certainly good at drawing bases on balls, but I'm counting on him throwing an overabundance of strikes. If Poreda can work his magic and Dotel can get back on track I favor the White Sox to hold on to a lead down the stretch and win this game.


Arizona will try and provide young Billy Buckner with some run support today, though they may not need it.
10) When it comes to records the biggest of the day has to be the Houston Astros' Ivan Rodriguez who is in line to catch his 2225th career game, which would put him one behind all-time leader Carlton Fisk. It may not imply much towards how the Astros will perform in this game, but with over 100 years of history an all-time record is fairly significant. Despite Miguel Tejada (2000th hit) and Lance Berkman (300th home run) passing major milestones during their current series against the Diamondbacks the Astros are batting a woeful .202 with a .312 slugging average in their past three games, thanks in large part to a 2 hit game against Dan Haren on Friday.

The Astros will face rookie pitcher Billy Buckner who has performed tremendously at the AAA level for the past couple of years, but has been ridiculously up and downARI 4 - 9 SF
ARI 3 - 2 LAD in the Majors this year. In his last start he gave up 8 earned runs off of 13 hits and failed to make it out of the 6th inning, yet in his previous start he shutout the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium for 6 innings, allowing only 4 hits. Houston will start Brian Moehler who has posted a 6.95 ERA and 1.73 WHIP this season through 44 innings this season. In his last start, against the Cubs, he gave up 5 earned runs from 8 hits and only made it through the 3rd inning.


Ivan `Pudge' Rodriguez tags out Chicago's Mike Fontenot at home earlier this season.

Overall, I favor Billy Buckner in this matchup as he's shown better stuff this season when he is on. Moehler has had some solid games, but I think Buckner is the better pitcher at this stage in their careers. As great as Ivan Rodriguez's accomplishment and as much as his experience will help defensively he has not been contributing at the plate much lately. He has gone 6-for-31 in June, all singles, for a .194 batting average. I think Arizona's lineup is more likely to click all together with Houston getting spotty bursts leading to players getting on base, but not being batted in for runs. With Houston's bullpen giving up a home run once every 8 or 9 innings I can see Houston giving up a small lead, or falling further behind after the 7th inning and would trust Arizona's relievers with that lead much more.

14) Well, looks like Pujols walked in his first plate appearance in this game.


Albert Pujols' Hits + Walks, game-by-game, from most recent to first game of the season (left-to-right).
His on base percentage (OBP) has dropped off in the month of June, to .352 where it's been above .400 for the season as a whole and over .450 for most of April and May. You can click on the image to get a better look. He had a period of 5 games recently without getting on base more than once from a hit or a walk but in his past 4 games has gotten at least 2 hits or walks combined. I think it's likely he'll get at least 2 hits or walks in this game, and possibly even 4 total which would make hit/walk a very good choice in this prop. In three plate appearances against Cliff Lee (four now) Pujols has a hit and two walks. Assuming Lee is still in the game I think it's very likely for Pujols to reach base, especially if there are men in scoring position though it's doubtful we'll know if that's the case by the time the prop locks. In any case, I think the numbers speak for themselves.
UPDATE: Cliff Lee has pitched a no-hitter through 6 innings and is still under 70 pitches. I think he can keep up the no hitter until at least the 80 pitch mark. So, go with `Any Other Result'.
Posted by Elijah Gregory at 12:15 AM 0 comments
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Saturday, June 13, 2009

June 13th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)Man, fuck this bull jive picking sheeat. 0-1-1 for me today even with a 7-4-1 blog record. Yea, not only did I fail to build my streak to a lousy 4 games but I lost it altogether. I had Mickelson for the win until some bodacious wind and hail blew 'em out of there. Then I took the Red Wings. I could have won with either of the props, but no. Ah well, congratulations to the Penguin compatriots. It was a sweet win for all 'dem. And so we blast on to the weekend with some more picks.



Recaps

Mickelson, Padraig Blown Away Late
Phil Mickelson -2, Padraig Harrington E (through 15)
A storm with lightning, winds in excess of 70mph and 1" diameter hail stones blew into Memphis and tossed the PGA Tour right out.
``Play was halted and fans and players were cleared from the TPC Southwind course when the horn sounded 10 minutes before thunder could be heard on Friday. Tornado sirens then went off approximately 40 minutes after play was stopped with the storm tossing equipment around the course and knocking power out in parts of town. Phil Mickelson was at 4 under with three birdies and a bogey in his first event since announcing his wife Amy has breast cancer. This is a tuneup for the U.S. Open at Bethpage Black, and his preparation showed when he pulled an iron instead of driver or a wood on the tee a couple of times"
Read more....LeaderboardRound 2 PhotosRound 2 Highlights

Fleury, Talbot, Penguins Puff Up, Deny Red Wings Second Straight Stanley Cup
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 1 Detroit Red Wings (win series 4-3)
``Slide over Super Mario and make room on the Stanley Cup for a new batch of Pittsburgh Penguins. Max Talbot scored two second-period goals, and the Penguins overcame the loss of captain Sidney Crosby and a whole lot of history to beat the defending champion Detroit Red Wings 2-1 on Friday night in Game 7 and win the Stanley Cup for the third time. Evgeni Malkin, who led the playoffs with 36 points, earned the Conn Smythe Trophy as the postseason MVP. He assisted on Talbot's first goal. Marc-Andre Fleury was stellar in making 23 saves -- none bigger than the two he made in the final seconds, the last as he dived across the crease and knocked away a shot by Niklas Lidstrom."
Read more....Box ScoreTalbot's HeroicsNotesPhotosVideo



Picks
1) Tenerife @ Girona - Girona win or draw
2) Arkansas vs. CS Fullerton - CS Fullerton
3) New York Mets @ New York Yankees - N.Y. Yankees
4) Rich `Ace' Franklin vs. Wanderlei `The Axe Murderer' Silva - Franklin
5) LSU vs. Virginia - Virginia
6) Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies - Philadelphia
7) New York Liberty @ San Antonio Silver Stars - San Antonio
8) Houston Astros @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Houston
9) Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards - Busch has a better finishing position
10) Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants - Oakland

Previews


With one more point Club Deportivo Tenerife will secure their return to La Liga.

Girona F.C. achieved safety a week ago and now hope to give a good result in their final match at Estadi Montilivi this season.
1) C.D. Tenerife make the 1600 mile journey from the Canary Islands to Girona in their penultimate match of the season. Tenerife nearly wrapped up their promotion to La Liga last week with a 2-0 win at home against Xerez. Tenerife still require one point from their last two matches to absolutely guarantee their place in the top flight, but based on this reaction to their victory over Xerez they are fairly confident in their chances of promotion. Looking at the homepages for Tenerife and Girona injury information and team selection was not easily come back, but you can check them out yourself and put your Catalan and Español to the test if you like.

GironaTenerife
@Eibar (2:2)Xerez (2:0)
Gimnastic de Tarragona (2:1)@Sevilla Atletico (0:4)
@Castellon (1:2)Alavés (3:0)
@Elche (2:1)@Hercules (3:1)
Xerez (0:2)Murcia (3:1)
All scores in (home:away) format
As far as their recent form goes the result of their last 5 matches are shown in the table to the right. Not surprisingly Tenerife have been in better form as they are the better team. This bit of data was contributed from user BigBadMo: ``Against the bottom 11 teams in the league, Tenerife is 13-3-5 with a +23 goal differential, while Girona is 4-8-7 against the top 11 teams with a -11 goal differential." One should keep in mind Girona are one of the best teams of the bottom 11, however, and have only lost 3 matches at Estadi Montilivi this season. Against teams with 4 or fewer losses at their home ground Tenerife are a less impressive 2-4-2 (W-D-L) with a -2 goal differential. I think this is a tough match to read because Girona are clearly not one of the elite teams in the league but they are also not a bottom feeder. Girona were defeated by Tenerife on the road by a score of 4-1 earlier in the season, which sounds convincing, but Girona have also been difficult for teams to earn the double on. They defeated Hercules 1-0 at home, and drew away at Xerez 2-2, with Real Zaragoza being the only top 5 team to double. I think Tenerife has the quality to win this game easily, but if they are distracted by their nearly assured promotion I can see them mailing in a 1-1 draw in this game to accomplish their goal.
Posted by Elijah Gregory at 12:40 AM 2 comments
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Friday, June 12, 2009

June 12th, 2009 Picks

(skip recaps)Well, 1-0-0 is all I eked out today with the Nationals coming through in the end. Incredibly an error at the end of a game worked in my favor and a Nationals reliever earned a save. I definitely missed out by passing on Mickelson, Livorno, and the Canadian hurdlers though. But who the fuck cares, right mate? So on to the picks.



Recaps

Phillips Error Nullfies Zimmerman Gaffe, Biemel Secures His First Save The Season
Washington Nationals 3 - 2 Cincinnati Reds
Phillips' error nullified an earlier one made by Ryan Zimmerman that allowed Gonzalez score from second on an infield single to put the Reds up 1-0.
``With the bases loaded and one out, Ryan Zimmerman bounced a slow grounder to shortstop Alex Gonzalez, who flipped to Phillips to force Alberto Gonzalez. As Anderson Hernandez crossed the plate with the tying run, Phillips threw wildly to first, allowing Guzman to score. The win was the third in 16 games for the Nationals, who left 12 runners on base before the eighth. Julian Tavarez (2-4) pitched two scoreless innings in relief of John Lannan and Joe Biemel got his first save of the year, pitching a scoreless ninth."
Read more....Box Score



Picks
1) Brian Gay vs. Charles Howell III - Gay cards a lower front 9 score
2) Phil Mickelson vs. Padraig Harrington - Mickelson cards a lower 2nd round score
3) Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs - Minnesota
4) Los Angeles Spark @ Indiana Fever - Los Angeles
5) New York Mets @ New York Yankees - N.Y. Yankees
6) Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies - Philadelphia
7) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Detroit Red Wings - Detroit
8) Goals Scored In 1st Period: 0 or 1 vs. 2 or more - 0 or 1 goal
9) Will Sidney Crosby Have Any Points: No (0) vs. Yes (1 or more) - No (0)
10) Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies - Colorado
11) Phoenix Mercury @ Sacramento Monarchs - Sacramento
12) San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Angels - San Diego

Previews
1) Brian Gay is the leader at The St. Jude Classic after 18 holes. Gay marauded through the front 9 in the afternoon with a 31 even though the conditions were a bit windy as compared with the morning. That 4 under from four birdies and five pars is quite a bit better than Charles Howell III's even par 35 earned through one birdie, a bogey, and seven pars. Historically, neither golfer has been significantly more successful than the other. Gay has two top 5 finishes, once in 2004 (T-5th) and in 2007 (4th). Howell III has only played in this event twice in the last five years before this year, and finished tied for 9th in 2004 and missed the cut in 2008. Of the eight rounds Howell III has played at TPC Southwind in the last five years then he has carded scores under par in 4 of them (50%) while Gay has played 19 rounds in the past five years, carding scores under par in 7 of them (37%). You can compare histograms of their front 9 scores by clicking here.


Brian Gay lines up a putt on #9. Gay had four birdies on the front 9 yesterday afternoon.

Although Brian Gay had a much better first round than did Charles Howell III both golfers are having one of their most successful years on the Tour to date. Comparing Gay's 2009 Tour stats and Howell III's 2009 Tour stats one sees that both have placed well in events this year, with Gay earning around $121,000 per event and Howell III earning around $87,500 per event. Brian Gay is also a bit better statistically in terms of scoring average, sand save percentage, driving accuracy, Greens-In-Regulation percentage, birdie average, and putting average.

``My neck is still tight and sore. I don't know if there's something else going on in there or not. I don't think it's bothering me as far as swinging the club, but just kind of a pain in the neck."
---Brian Gay on how he felt during round 1
Lately, however, Gay has had to deal with a number of minor injuries including soreness in his neck, a rib injury, and back problems. In an interview following the first round Gay said his ribs and back are better but he still has soreness in his neck. Obviously, that did not affect his game too greatly in the first round, but it remains a concern as he continues to play.

With a win at TPC Southwind Brian Gay would qualify for the U.S. Open next weekend, though he may be looking forward to having a weekend off. I think he will approach the following rounds the same as any other and just try and play well and play the same as usual. Charles Howell III is likely to make the cut if he can shoot even par and would make the cut if they culled the field before the start of today's round. He should not be feeling too much pressure to make up ground. Considering Gay's 31 is his best front 9 score at Southwind in the past 5 years it seems likely he will shoot a few strokes worse, a 34 or 35. Howell III, however, is not likely to improve drastically and I see a 2 under 33 as the best he would most likely do and a 34 or 35 as his result. There is no clear favorite here, but with Gay already playing better this weekend and slightly better overall in 2009 I would favor him to win this matchup today.




2) Aside from Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson is quite possibly the best golfer in the world this year.

Mickelson misses a putt but played a solid round overall.
Although his 2 under 68 left him 4 strokes off of the top spot after the first round he already has two Tour wins from 10 events, earning an average of $320,000 from each. His group partner, Padraig Harrington, has not seen nearly the same success, missing the cut in 2 of his last 4 events, and earning a `paltry' $400,000 from 11 PGA Tour events. On the European Tour he has been more successful, earning $380,000 from 6 events and being one of the top 10 players in strokes per round.

Much has been made of the distraction provided Mickelson by his wife's recent breast cancer diagnosis. Mickelson was able to field some questions on that matter in his post-round interview yesterday.

Q. Phil, was this as tough a round of golf as you've ever played with everything that's been going on?
PHIL MICKELSON: ``I thought the pairing I had, playing with Padraig and Cameron was a perfect pairing to make the day lighthearted. We talked about a number of things that were not related to what's been going on, and so it's been really good."
With a great grouping it seems Mickelson will be able to keep focused on golf and having fun, and I think that will make enough of a difference here to ensure he stays 4 strokes in front of Harrington through this round.
Click on image to see a preview of each hole at TPC Southwind.


3) The Minnesota Twins reopen interleague play with their first trip to Wrigley Field in eight years, so the experience will be a new one for most of the players on their roster. It will be a three game series at Wrigley, over the weekend, with all three games being in the day. Minnesota is a dismal 5-15 in day games this season. Today's game won't be an easy one either, not with Randy Wells pitching for the Cubs.

The Twins go south for a matinee against Randy the Kid.
Wells may have an 0-2 record but his stats this season, pitching-wise at least, eclipse even Carlos Zambrano's. He has a 2.23 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 642/3 innings this season, 26 of them with AAA Iowa, meaning he has pitched even better for the Cubs than he did in the minors. He's coming off one of his lesser starts of the season, a 62/3 inning 7 hit effort in which he gave up 2 earned runs to the Reds. Prior to that he pitched for a full 7 innings against the Braves, allowing only 2 hits, one a home run, his only of the season. His 0-2 record then represents the weakness of Chicago's offense, at least when he's been pitching. The Cubs are 0-2 when Wells is pitching having scored 20 runs in his 6 starts, less than 4 per game with many of those runs coming late in the game.
"It's like, 'Man, you didn't get the win again,' [I'm like] hey, I lived it."
---Randy Wells on the messages he receives after games

His counterpart, Kevin Slowey, has not had the same issues with run support. Although he has a 4.21 ERA and 1.43 WHIP his record is 8-2 making him one of the winningest pitchers in baseball this season. A big part of his success has been the offense Minnesota provides, but another major component has been his excellent command of the strike zone. Through 722/3 innings this season Slowey has walked a total of 9 batters. That his WHIP is still at 1.43 shows he is very hittable, but with a lack of free base runners he is able to keep men from advancing and scoring too often. Of course, when teams hit off of him like Seattle did in his last start - three home runs in 42/3 innings - they are going to score runs. That he got out of that game with only 4 earned runs against is a small miracle.


Despite some amazing stuff Randy Wells is still seeking his first win in seven starts.

Being that Wells throws right and many of the Twins' sluggers bat left I can see Wells giving up 2 or 3 runs in this game. The question then is will Slowey's luck continue to hold in preventing runs by the Cubs or will Fukudome, Soriano, Lee, and the many other potential offensive weapons have a field day? Chicago is batting .248 with a .393 slugging average in their last three games, almost exactly their batting numbers for the season as a whole. Unless they can improve on that I don't see them stringing together enough hits to effectively score runs in this game. Even if Wells does pitch a gem, with 7 shutout innings, I think Minnesota will be able to do some damage against the Cubs relievers such as Marmol, Heilmann, and Gregg. There are so many factors favoring Chicago, playing at Wrigley, the Twins' lack of success in day games, Wells on the mound, etcetera that it's hard to pick against them, but I see Wells as having a bit of a let down today and that will be enough to give the Twins the victory.


6) Two of the best teams in Major League baseball will clash tonight at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Both teams are wrapping up tough stretches in the schedule and both teams have seen success through those stretches. Boston is 8-2 in their last 10 games and just finished up a three game sweep of the New York Yankees at Fenway Park. They will be starting Jon Lester who is coming off a pair of very impressive starts in which he has racked up 23 strikeouts over 15 innings while allowing 2 earned runs from 5 hits. His opponents were no walk overs either, as he shut down Texas at Fenway and Toronto at the Rogers Centre. Joe Blanton, for Philadelphia, has not done so badly himself after a rocky start to the season and is coming off 6 inning, 1 earned run against outing against the Dodgers in L.A. Boston has been hitting the ball better in their past three games, but the Phillies have averaged more total bases per hit overall this season. Lester will be a difficult prospect, but at Citizens Bank Park I favor the Phillies. I also don't think Lester will be striking out 10+ for a third consective game. Finally, Madson should have at least as good a chance of preserving a lead as Brad Lidge who is currently on the disabled list.

9) NHL Playoff hockey already has a reputation for placing a premium value on disciplined, conservative, defensive play. If that is the case then one might expect Game 7 of the Stanley Cup to be the epitome of that style. If previous games between these two are any indication the Penguins will have their work cut out for them. Including the regular season the Penguins have scored 7, 0, 1, 1, 4, 4, 0, and 2 goals in 8 games against Detroit. It was a game in November which saw the Penguins win 7-6 in overtime at Detroit, with Chris Osgood in goal no less. In their other three games at Joe Louis Arena, all in 2009, the Penguins have not scored more than 1 goal. Clicking here one can see Sidney Crosby's point production in all 8 games this season. The shaded areas represent games in Detroit. One can see that the Penguins have scored 19 goals in 8 games against Detroit this season, with Crosby accumulating 6 points (2 goals and 4 assists). That means Crosby has had a hand in less than 1/3 of the Penguins' goals this season. I think Pittsburgh could very well be held to under 3 goals in this game and given these numbers it would seem Crosby is more likely to be shut out in that situation.

12) Well, it's getting on in the day and so I'll just post a quick link to some raw stats. Looking over these stats I'm thinking the Padres are due to have a good game offensively with a large number of extra base hits. I also think Palmer will have to pitch a gem to allow the Angels to win this game. He could, certainly, but the Angels' bullpen may blow it in any case. For a base runs analysis and a link to an explanation of `Base Runs' click here. For a look at pitching stats, timeline of quality starts, links to recent performances, and simple batting and bullpen statistics click here.

UPDATE: Sorry, but it appears the links in these documents are not being converted correctly into flash movies so Adobe Reader will be required to view them.

Posted by Elijah Gregory at 12:06 AM 2 comments
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