June 2nd, 2009 Picks

Sorry folks but the free ride is over and the streams have been taken down. Enjoy the scoreboards and widghts!

Yarrr, 1-1-0 today with Gael Monfils knocking Andy Roddick around and that putz J.J. Putz fucking up big time to blow a 2 run lead. Ah well, que sera, sera.

Recaps

Gael Monfils def. Andy Roddick (6-4 6-2 6-3); Advances To Quarterfinals

Gael Monfils took his match against Andy Roddick in straight sets after a late start forced the match to be played in dusk lighting. Roddick complained to the side judge at one point in the match that he could not see the ball properly. Afterwards Roddick came to terms with the decision to play on, saying the conditions were the same for both players and that Monfils simply served bigger at the right times. Gael Monfils will move on to the quarterfinals to take on Swissman Roger Federer in his attempt to claim his first Grand Slam title.

Pittsburgh Pirates 8 - 5 New York Mets

The New York Mets had a small flurry of scoring in the 2^nd and 3^rd innings neutralized by a two RBI triple by Andy LaRoche in the 4^th inning and were nearly able to hold on to the two run lead. In the end the New York Mets never scored again and the Pirates reeled off four consecutive singles in the 8^th inning on their way to 5 runs and an 8-5 lead. It was only the second time this season the Pirates had come from behind after the 7^th inning to win a game as well as only the second time the Mets had lost such a lead after the 7^th. And so on to the picks.

1) Andy Murray vs. Fernando Gonzalez - Gonzalez
2) Dominika Cibulkova vs. Maria Sharapova - Sharapova
3) Turkey (v. Azerbaijan) vs. Germany (@ United Arab Emirates) - Germany win margin
4) Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves - Chicago
5) Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers - Detroit
6) Los Angeles Angels hits off Halladay vs. Roy Halladay strikeouts - Angels hits off Halladay
7) Florida vs. Washington - Florida
8) Detroit Red Wings @ Pittsburgh Penguins - Detroit
9) Brad Hawpe vs. Carlos Lee - Hawpe records more total bases
10) Earned Runs Allowed by Jake Peavy: 3 runs or less vs. 4 runs or more - 3 runs or less
11) Will Ichiro Suzuki Extend His Hit Streak To 26 Games: Yes vs. No - Yes
12) Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Los Angeles

Analysis
1) (#3) Andy Murray and (#12) Fernando Gonzalez meet in the quarterfinals of the 2009 French Open today in a highly anticipated match between two players who have mostly rolled through their competition.

2009 French Open Stats
	Murray	Gonzalez
1st Serve %	64.1%	64.6%
1st Serve Win %	73.8%	85.7%
2nd Serve Win %	50.3%	70.8%
Receiving Win %	47.1%	44.5%
Unforced Errors	85	76
Games Lost	51	37
Data over rounds 1 through 4

Both players are putting ²/₃ of their first serves into play with Murray winning 74% of his first serve points and Gonzalez winning 86% of them. Overall Gonzalez has won an impressive 80% of his service points with Murray winning 64% of his service points facing slightly tougher competition.

Murray is coming off one of his more impressive clay court matches, defeating #13 Marin Cilic in straight sets 7-5 7-6(7-4) 6-1. He was pushed to the limit early on, but never stopped giving up and played with great composure, committing only 14 errors while racking up 10 aces. "I'm playing well, I mean, you don't get to the quarters of the French not playing good clay-court tennis." said Murray after the match. Fernando Gonzalez fairly waltzed through his foruth round match as he overpowered #33 Victor Hanescu 6-2 6-4 6-2 to reach the quarterfinals.

Murray gives the crazy eye to Gonzalez, loses a service point, and chides those who doubt he will win the match.

Murray and Gonzalez have only faced one another twice in their careers, and never on clay. Both men respect the challenge the other presents and both are feeling very confident in their present play. "I think Murray is No. 3, and he deserves it, I can tell you, so it's going to be a difficult match." said Gonzalez after his fourth round victory.

I think it will be a very exciting match, but once again a player who has had more success on clay will triumph in this one. It will be difficult for Murray to maintain his composure if he is down a set after losing 7-6(7-5) rather than up a set won in that manner and it has been that composure, that lack of committing errors that has helped him advance this far. Gonzalez has been dominant holding serve through four rounds and I think that could be the difference here.

@@__==--^^Click here to watch the 2009 French Open live^^--==__@@

2) Maria Sharapova continues her remarkable comeback from a rotator cuff tear she had been playing through for three months in 2008. She took the rest of the year off along with the first part of 2009 to recover playing in only one tournament, at Warsaw, where she lost in the quarterfinals.

Cibulkova has a powerful shot, but Sharapova might be the more aggressive of the two.

She has been in superb form here at the French Open having already defeated #11 Nadia Petrova in the second round and #25 Na Li in the fourth round to reach her quarterfinal match with #20 Dominika Cibulkova. Cibulkova has been even more dominant in her march to the quarters losing only one set, in the first round, to #28 Alona Bondarenko. The Sony Ericsson WTA Tour site contains a a nice preview of the match. They note that Cibulkova has also missed playing time this year with a hip adductor strain and that she seems surprised to have been this successful in the French Open.

The two have played twice in the past, both times on clay court, and both in 2008. Sharapova won both matches, but Cibulkova took it to three sets in one and forced a tie break in the other. I think Cibulkova has a good chance to win in this match, but she may be overwhelmed by a fan favorite in Sharapova who is on her way to regaining a top 10 ranking by the end of the year.

@@__==--^^Click here to watch the 2009 French Open live^^--==__@@

4) Before the season started the Chicago Cubs were favorites to win the NL Central for a third straight year, but a slew of injuries have left the Cubs 4¹/₂, behind Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Cincinnati. If not for their starting pitching, 2^nd best ERA in the division, they may have found themselves trailing even - *gasp* - Pittsburgh. Chicago will start Randy Wells tonight who has an impressive 1.80 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in three Major league starts

CHC 1 - 2 LAD(L)
CHC 1 - 3 SD(L)
CHC 5 - 4 HOU(W)

.

"It's that middle ground where you have to be aggressive but you can't be out of control,.... You watch him and he's very much in control with his body. You don't see him overthrow. When you get that, that's why you see consistent command." --Cubs pitcher Ted Lilly on Randy Wells' pitching style

He will be facing an Atlanta Braves team that is batting .305 and slugging .475 in their last three games, scoring 21 runs in that span.

Atlanta is praying that recent burst is a sign of things to come and not just a result of poor pitches being thrown their way. Considering they rank last in the National League in stolen bases and next to last in OPS and have two outfielders rounding out the bottom five in OPS the latter seems more likely.

In that case the Braves will rely on 33 year old rookie Kenshin Kawakami to put in another quality start. Kawakami is coming off a mundane performance against the San Francisco Giants where he gave up 3 earned runs from 9 hits in 5²/₃ innings. He is certainly capable of better, as when he held the Blue Jays scoreless for 8 innings, giving up 3 hits while striking out 7 batters.

Randy Wells (1.80 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 0-2 record) seeks his first win.

Neither team has faced the opposing pitcher before so it is difficult to say whether there will be a poor matchup there, but as far as who will have a better start I favor Wells who has been extremely consistent in the Majors and the minors this year. Both teams are hitting above average in their previous series' so it would not be surprising to see a pitchers duel in this game making it difficult for either team to secure a win. Chipper Jones is suffering from some bunions on his right foot and may rest for this game, which would hinder the Braves' chances, but even if he does play his limited mobility could reduce the effectiveness of Atlanta's defense on some hits. With strong bullpens I favor the team whose pitcher stumbles least and as I said before I think it will be Wells. Of course, he has to have a bad start eventually.

6) The Los Angeles Angels rank 2^nd in the Majors and 1^st in the American League in terms of fewest strikeouts recorded with 287 in 49 games. They are also 5^th in the Majors in batting average at .276 for the season. Looking at the graph below one can see the Angels have had more batters get a hit off of the starting pitcher than be struck out by him in 5 out of 49 games this season. Those pitchers were Greinke and Davies of the Royals, Bedard(&mult;2) from the Mariners, and Gavin Floyd of the White Sox. Since Vlad Guerrero returned to the lineup they seem to have struggled a bit, averaging only 5 hits per game off the starting pitcher. Guerrero himself started off slow and is batting .240 since his return, but the Angels are probably just experiencing a natural slump in production that may or may not continue into this game.

In one previous game this season Halladay struck out 6 Angels batters while giving up 6 hits. Vlad Guerrero was not in the lineup.

Looking at Roy Halladay's numbers against the Angels' current roster it appears this should be a very close matchup. Halladay has given up 49 hits and struck out 44 in 227 at bats against them. The player most likely to whiff on a Halladay toss has been Bobby Abreu, with 12 strikeouts in 34 at bats and only 6 hits. The biggest plus for the Angels has been Howie Kendrick who is batting .400 in 10 at bats with only 1 strikeout. Whatever lineup the Angels field for this game it should be very close. With their batting numbers low for the past 6 games I might give the advantage to Halladay, but the Angels' lack of strikeouts all season long make me think they will have one more hit or push at worst.

9) Looking at the graph below one can see that last season Carlos Lee would have been a runaway favorite to have more total bases than Brad Hawpe in any given game. Hawpe was getting zero hits in over a third of his games while Lee went '0'-fer in under a quarter of his. This season Lee has not been able to avoid going hitless as reliably, with at least one hit in 36 of 50 games, while Hawpe has improved his hitting drastically, reaching base safely in 33 of 45 games.

Pitching Stats
	Jiminez	Paulino
HIP	1.01	1.39
SlgAg	.320	.882
	COL blpn	HOU blpn
HIP	1.23	1.06
HRIP	0.11	0.15
HIP - Hits per Inning Pitched (season);
blpn - bullpen; SlgAg - Slg. Avg.(against opponent)

Hawpe has also increased the number of games he has with 2 or 3 total bases from around 22% last season to 31% this season. Carlos Lee has 2 or 3 total bases in around 24% of his games this season, finishing games with one single, or a home run, more often than Hawpe has. A quick comparison of Hawpe's stats with Carlos Lee's shows Hawpe is having the better season overall in terms of hits and total bases.

As far as the pitching matchups go the Rockies are starting Ubaldo Jiminez who has a 1.01 HIP (hits per inning pitched) this season. In 4 at bats against Lee he has given up one single. The Houston Astros are starting Felipe Paulino whose HIP this season is at 1.39, and who has given up a double and a single in two at bats against Hawpe. Both bullpens give up home runs at a higher than average rate for the Majors, and Colorado's gives up more hits. With the batters likely to have more at bats against the starting pitchers however, I'll take Paulino's higher HIP to favor Hawpe's chances more.

11) Ichiro Suzuki will get most of his at bats in this game against David Hernandez. Hernandez gave up 5 hits in 5²/₃ innings in his first ever Major league start and has been devouring the minor leagues, with a 1.06 WHIP in 8 starts for AAA Norfolk. Ichiro is batting .352 for the season, however, and with 4 at bats assured (he's not one to intentionally walk) those are good odds he gets a hit.

June 1st, 2009 Picks

1-2-0... Just one of those days where I managed to pick a few losers out of the winners after getting lucky in the morning. Justin Rose got me back on track, but then I took Tim Clark to win the tournament rather than either the Twins, the Red Sox, or the Angels, or even Jimmie Johnson. A Sean Marshall 1^st inning meltdown ended the day on a down note for me. I've been experimenting with various elements for this blog and I've discovered some compatibility issues with Google Chrome (and thus with Safari and probably iPod/iPhone browsers as well). I'm trying to fix them, but if something isn't rendering properly for you on this page please leave a comment and I'll fix that problem first thing.

Recaps

Justin Rose 34, John Rollins 35 (Front 9 Scores)

J. Rose/J. Rollins - Front 9 Scorecards - Colonial CC
	1/5	2/4	3/4	4/3	5/4	6/4	7/4	8/3	9/4	OUT/35
J. Rose	4	4	4	3	4	5	4	2	4	34
J. Rollins	4	4	4	3	6	3	4	3	4	35
				Birdie		Par		Bogey		2+ Bogey

Justin Rose took a two stroke lead when Rollins double bogeyed the par-4 #5 but got them both back with a birdie on #6 and a bogey by Rose on the same. Rose hit a tremendous tee shot to score birdie on the 8^th hole and that was the difference in this matchup.

Stricker Defeats Clark, Marino On Second Playoff Hole At Colonial CC

Tim Clark clung to a one to two stroke lead for the entire final round, and with one hole remaining he retained that one stroke lead on playing partner Steve Marino. Clark hit a poor tee shot and was unable to scramble for par dropping him back into a tie with Marino and Steve Stricker. Stricker had chipped in for birdie on #17 and it ended up being the shot that entered him into the playoff. Tim Clark missed a 7 foot putt on the first playoff hole which would have won it and then hit his tee shot on the par-3 17^th right at the hole. His shot was so on target that it bounced off the flag pole, rolling to about 23 feet away. Stricker hit his tee shot within four feet and sunk his putt for the birdie and the win.

Los Angeles Dodgers 8 - 2 Chicago Cubs

Sean Marshall gave up five consecutive singles to lead off the 1^st inning and the Chicago Cubs were never able to recover from the 5 run deficit. Aside from that debacle the Dodgers outscored the Cubs 3-2 to win the game 8-2 and split the series at Wrigley field two games apiece. And so on to the picks.

1) Andy Roddick vs. Gael Monfils - Monfils
2) Odd Grenland @ Molde FK - Odd Grenland win or draw
3) South Carolina vs. East Carolina - South Carolina
4) New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates - New York
5) New York Yankees @ Cleveland Indians - Cleveland
6) Washington vs. Florida - Florida
7) Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals - Cincinnati
8) Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres - San Diego
9) Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners - Baltimore

Analysis
1) Andy Roddick meets French favorite Gael Monfils in the 4^th round of the French Open. Third round results are discussed here. Roddick has advanced through the first three rounds without losing a set while Monfils lost his first set on Saturday to world 26^th ranked player Jurgen Melzer.

Roddick has the strength and skill to win. Monfils has the strength, skill, and acrobatics to.

Roddick has never made it through the second round in 8 previous entries into the French Open but his improved training over the off-season, including slimming down and adding more shots to his repertoire have allowed him to be more successful on the clay surface than ever before. Monfils made it through to the semi-finals last year so expectations are high despite his knee problems due to ongoing growing pains this year. He has not been able to play much this season with his last ATP appearance coming at the end of March.

Head to head Roddick and Monfils have split their meetings, 3 apiece, with Roddick winning both meetings this year and Monfils winning both of their matches on clay. The Roland Garros site contains a nice preview of the match. Both players appear to be in excellent form, with Monfils not yet showing signs of the pain in his knees, leaping, diving, and sliding in the ways that earned him the moniker "The Sliderman". Oddsmakers have Monfils as the favorite in this match, but with the way Roddick has been playing he will certainly have a shot but Monfils should prove too skilled on clay to go down today.

Ξ Ξ Ξ==__|| Watch the match live from UStream ||== Ξ Ξ Ξ

Click on image if embedded stream fails

2) World Football Net is a very nice place to look for information on this match. One can see immediately that Molde FK and Odd Grenland are tied in the tables with 18 points apiece. Clicking on the home and away tables to the left shows that Molde FK are one of the worst teams in the league in terms of home performance, while Odd Grenland are one of only three teams to have yet to win a match outright on the road. Head to head Molde FK has been fairly dominant at Aker Stadium against Odd Grenland, with a 6-1-1 record through the clubs' histories. Their last match was in 2006 which Molde FK won 2-0.

Odd Grenland visit Aker Stadium as they attempt to make a push for second place in the Tippeligaen.

Only two players, Morten Fevang and Svindal Larsen remain from that Odd team.

Odd Grenland's homepage has a terrific preview of the match against Molde FK, but unfortunately it's only in Norwegian. Essentially it notes that Odd Grenland will welcome back Tommy Svindal Larsen and Jacob Sørensen at midfield, but will be without Alex Valencia up front and Torjus Hansèn on defense who picked up knocks in their last match, in Cup play. They will likely start 19 year old phenom Fredrik Semb on defense to give him some match experience. Worth noting are that Odd Grenland midfielders Morten Fevang and Simen Brenne play for the Norwegian national team, and equally worth noting is that team is in last place in their World Cup qualifier group, earning 2 points from 3 matches.

Information on Molde FK is a bit harder to come by though there are some goals scored by minute stats. Molde FK appear to score the majority of their goals in the five minutes before and after half time. In their last five matches they have 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses with their lone home win of the season coming against FK Bodø/Glimt in March.

Possible starting XI's
Molde FK: (3-4-3) Lillebakk -- Vatshaug, Steen, Forren -- Rindarøy, Hoseth, Thioune, Skjølsvik -- Moström, Mame Diouf, Pape Diouf
Odd Grenland: (4-3-3): Arason -- Hagen, Fevang, Semb, Rambekk -- Storbæk, S. Larsen, Brenne -- Sørensen, Kovacs, Bentley

||--~~==Follow the match with live ticker==~~--||

4) The Pittsburgh Pirates are one of only two teams the New York Mets have swept this season, the other being the Washington Nationals. Both of those sweeps this season occured at home at Citi Field.

The Mets try and carry their success with them to PNC Park.

Today the Mets will travel to PNC Park sporting an 11-12 away record this season. They've been successful at PNC, winning most of their games there the past few years, but have had some hard to take losses with a late lead. Livan Hernandez will be starting on the mound for the Mets today. Hernandez has come on strong at the end of May pitching a complete game against Washington while allowing only 1 earned run from 9 hits and holding the Dodgers to 1 earned run in 7 innings at Dodger Stadium. He will need to keep up with those kinds of performances for the Mets to succeed on the road, especially considering all the injuries the Mets have had to deal with, the latest being to outfielder Angel Pagan who tweaked his groin in the series against Florida over the weekend. He was playing for the injured Carlos Beltran who, coincidentally, is expected back for today's game against the Pirates.

Pittsburgh will start right-hander Ian Snell in a rematch of the starting pitchers from the May 10^th game at Citi Field in which the Mets won 8-4. Snell and Hernandez both had decent outings, giving up three and two runs in 6 innings, respectively. It was Pittsburgh's bullpen who put the Pirates out of it, a fact they are well aware of. Pittsburgh's bullpen has improved since then, but Ian Snell has not, increasing his ERA to 5.43 and WHIP to 1.58 after giving up 6 earned runs from 8 hits in 5 innings to the Chicago Cubs at PNC Park. Snell also walked 4 batters while striking out the same number.

Livan Hernandez pumps his fist after throwing his first complete game of the season last week against Washington.

The Mets had some problems with their offense against Florida, batting .212 with a .303 slugging average, scoring only 8 runs in the series. It was still good enough to take 2 of the 3 games with their bullpen holding slim leads in both victories. Although Snell has been fairly successful in limiting the Mets' offense, even with Reyes and Delgado in the lineup, I think New York will turn things around some offensively. As long as Hernandez can maintain his form and put in a quality start the Mets should be able to take a small lead or at least stay close. I do think Pittsburgh's bullpen is performing better now than they did three weeks ago so they may be able to hold off New York from 2 or 3 runs down. If the Mets have the lead then New York's bullpen, tops in the league, should clinch the victory for the Mets. Especially considering Pittsburgh is 1-21 this season in games in which they are trailing after 7 innings.


7) The St. Louis Cardinals host the Cincinnati Reds at Busch Stadium tonight in a matchup of NL Central hopefuls. The Milwaukee Brewers currently hold a one game lead over St. Louis with the Reds lurking 2¹/₂ games further back. St. Louis will start Todd Wellemeyer, who has a 5.02 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 10 starts this season, hardly all-star numbers. His numbers were even worse a week and a half ago before he pitched two quality startsSTL 3 - 2 MIL(W)
STL 5 - 0 KC(W) against Kansas City and at Milwaukee. Wellemeyer has not earned that high ERA and WHIP by stringing together multiple quality starts and another one today would be the first time he has had three in a row all season.

Cincinnati will have to hope they can keep Wellemeyer from reaching that mark without the help of slugger Joey Votto who has been placed on the disabled list with an inner ear infection and to deal with personal issues. The loss of Votto will hurt the Reds' offense, but they have had to make do without him quite a bit recently, managing a 5-5 record in their last 10 games.

Edinson Volquez looks to outduel a streaking Todd Wellemeyer after returning from the disabled list.

As a team the Reds are batting only .219 in their last three games but have made up for that with a .409 slugging average, earning nearly two total bases with every hit. With Wellemeyer's 5.5 K/9 and low ground ball to fly ball ratio (0.63), coupled with a fairly high walk rate that could spell trouble if say he walks a batter, gives up a sacrifice fly, then a double to drive a run home.

Cincinnati will welcome back Edinson Volquez who is returning from a stint on the disabled list due to back spasms. Volquez struggled the last time he faced the Cardinals giving up 7 earned runs in 6²/₃ from just 6 hits though he did record 8 strikeouts. Was he feeling those spasms even in that game? How he performs in his return from injury will be pivotal for the Reds' chances at victory tonight. Back spasms are a tricky ailment with a subconscious component - if they flare up on him tonight he may struggle again. Additionally, the Cardinals are back to hitting well again now that Ryan Ludwick and Ricky Ankiel have rejoined the team. In their last three games the Cardinals are batting .274 with a .409 slugging average, not too far off of their season averages. If they can get Brian Barden back to his season opening form it could be a very long 5 innings for Volquez.

Overall I think the 25 year old Volquez will heal nicely and have a strong start against a Cardinals though he will probably still give up 2 to 4 runs in 6 innings. That should be good enough against Wellemeyer who I can see being shelled by the Reds' lineup even without Votto. Both teams have strong bullpens so it will be important for both pitchers to start off strong. I think Volquez will have the stronger start and the Reds will pull away early in this game.

9) The Baltimore Orioles visit Safeco Field to take on the Seattle Mariners who are enjoying their best offensive production to date this season. The Mariners have scored an average of 5.75 runs in their last four games, going 3-1 in that stretch. They're also batting over .300 and slugging over .500 in that stretch, well above their season long numbers of .258 batting and .387 slugging. Part of that success, according to manager Dan Wakamatsu, is finding the right lineup and swinging at the right pitches.

Baltimore looks to rediscover the offense that's been key to their recent success.

Seattle will try to maintain that success at Safeco against the Orioles' Rich Hill. Hill has recorded a 6.14 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in his 3 major league starts. The bulk of his runs were given up in his last start, against Toronto, where he conceded 6 runs on 6 hits in just 3¹/₃ innings. The Orioles were able to keep pace, however, and won the game 12-10. Hill is a strikeout pitcher with a K/9 of over 9.0, but he has a tendency to walk batters. Last season his WHIP in the Majors consisted of more walks than hits. He had the same problem in the minors as well. It speaks to an issue of delivery and control as a pitcher who strikes so many batters out will throw balls that are swung at he must be putting the ball way outside the zone at times. Even with the Mariners most likely to cool off at the plate tonight any hits they do get will be that much more costly with runners already on base. One man who will certainly make Hill pay is the speedy Ichiro Suzuki, who is currently riding a 24 game hit streak.

Baltimore will have to hope their offense can keep pace tonight if Hill is unable to keep men off base. Their offense already cooled down facing Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson against Detroit, though they are still batting .247 and slugging .412 in their past three games.

Luke Scott (left) has an OPS of over 1.900 in the past week, while Ichiro (right) has a hit in 24 consecutive games.

The Orioles boast the presence of Player of the Week Luke Scott who has gone 8-for-18 with 6 home runs, driving in 14 runs in the past 5 games. Baltimore will be tested once again, facing Jarrod Washburn who rebounded from a poor showing against the Angels with a 6 inning shutout of Oakland.

Overall I think Washburn is likely to avoid a poor start, but could very well give up 4 or 5 runs in 6 innings. If the season were to end now Washburn's 3.45 ERA would rank as his 3^rd best in his 12 year career. I think the Mariners will not hit as well as they have been but bases on balls and speedy base running will still lead to a few runs off of the hits they do get. The x-factor will be whether Baltimore can score enough runs to keep pace.

May 31st, 2009 Picks

Ahh, fuck. 1-1-0 today after Brian Fuentes gave up a 3 run homer with 2 outs to send the game into extra innings. Angels lose, my streak ends, and on to another one.

Chicago Cubs 7 - 0 Los Angeles Dodgers

Stults couldn't quite make it through the 4^th inning and the Cubs scored slowly and steadily to win this game 7-0.

Seattle Mariners 4 - 3 Los Angeles Angels (in 10)

Matt Palmer and Felix Hernandez both pitched well enough to deserve to win, but neither of them will be credited with one tonight. Palmer had a one run lead staked to his performance after he pitched 7 shut out innings. Darren Oliver retired the batters 1-2-3 in the 8^th and the Angels added a couple of insurance runs for good measure. Closer Brian Fuentes allowed two men on base and with two outs gave up a 3 run homer to Javier Lopez to blow the save. The Mariners scored again in the 10^th inning and could not get it back in the bottom of the inning to go down 4-3. And so on to the picks.

1) Sampdoria @ Palermo - Palermo win
2) Justin Rose vs. John Rollins - Rose cards a lower front 9 score
3) Maria Sharapova vs. Na Li - Li
4) Washington vs. Georgia - Washington
5) Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays - Boston
6) Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays - Minnesota
7) Jimmie Johnson vs. Carl Edwards - Johnson has a better finishing position
8) Tim Clark or Jason Day vs. Rest of Field - Clark or Day win the tournament
9) Alabama vs. Florida - 5 runs or fewer
10) Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels - Los Angeles
11) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Detroit Red Wings - Detroit
12) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs - Chicago
13) Georgia vs. Washington - Washington

Analysis

1)	Il Rosanero will try to break their club Serie A record for points in a season with a win today.

Antonio Cassano will try to keep Sampdoria on pace at the Renzo Barbera.

Il rosanero will try for 59 points with a victory over Coppa Italia runners up Sampdoria today at the Renzo Barbera where they have collected 52 of a possible 64 points with a 14-0-4 (W-D-L) record this season. As always, at least for the larger European leagues, goal.com has a nice preview of the match where they predict a 2-2 draw. Part of the reasoning for that comes from the injury concerns facing Palermo, where they will have to do without defender Cesare Bovo, midfielder Fabio Liverani, and Uruguyan striker Edison Cavani. All three players started 27 matches or more for the club. Sampdoria will be missing Pietro Accardi in the backfield, which may or may not be a bad thing considering he has been a major component of a defense which has conceded 29 goals in 17 away matches.

Antonio Cassano has been left off the Italian team so he may have a big game with a chip on his shoulder and to increase his value as he looks to move on at the end of this season. It will be interesting to see how Palermo's Simon Kjaer does marking him. Sampdoria's defense has been porous all season but it was enough to take them all the way to penalty kicks in the Coppa Italia final so they can put the wall up when they have to. Palermo are heavy favorites in the sportsbooks to win outright, around 50%, and I think they can pull off a win here, but with Cassano up front for Sampdoria it is risky to predict they will not pull off the draw. To ease your mind just remember that Palermo have not drawn at home in 19 matches in all competitions this season.

2) Justin Rose has had a slow start to his season on the PGA Tour. After taking time off in January and February to be with his pregnant wife, he returned to the tour as soon as she gave birth. Since then he's made the cut in 6 of 9 events and has racked up $325,000 from it with 3 top 25 finishes. John Rollins appears to be hitting his stride in his 11^th year earning $1.4 million dollars from 14 events thanks largely to 2^nd place finishes at the Buick Invitational and The Honda Classic in February and March. He has hit a bit of a rough patch in the past month, finishing no higher than 37^th in that time.

At the Colonial Country Club this year it has been Justin Rose who has performed better on the front 9 of the course. Clicking on the image to the right one can compare the two players' scorecards. As they are paired together

Rose's Scorecard Rollin's Scorecard Rose has carded lower front 9 scores in each of the first three rounds.

for the final round they have performed similarly overall, but Rose has carded the lower front 9 score for all three rounds. Rose has carded birdies on five separate holes with at least two in each round while Rollins

has birdied only three of the holes so far, with two or fewer birdies in all three rounds. Neither player has bogeyed much on the front 9 so their ability to birdie has been important in determining their overall score on the holes. In the past five years at this event Justin Rose has also been the better performer, typically. His best finish was tied for 13^th in 2005 while Rollins achieved his top finish in 2007 tied for 24^th. On the front 9 Rose has carded 7 of 11 rounds under par in those 5 years, with a median score of -2 while Rollins has carded only 6 of 14 rounds under par with a median score of even par. I think Rose may have been distracted by his newly born child but will prove to be the more successful golfer by the end of the Tour this year. His performance at this event this year and years previous suggest he will card a lower front 9 score today and I am not of mind to disagree. Previews of the holes can be found here.

<<--~~==¦Follow their round on ShotTracker¦==~~-->>

12) The Chicago Cubs will try to hand the Los Angeles Dodgers their first three game losing streak of the season when they play at Wrigley Field tonight. The Dodgers took the first game 2-1 before losing the next two and have managed to score only 3 runs total in the series. Their hitting has gone away (.194 batting and .258 slugging) against the Cubs' pitching staff of Wells, Lilly, and Dempster and the going won't get any easier as they face Sean Marshall.

Sean Marshall and the Cubs seek to hand the Dodgers their first three game losing streak of the season.

Marshall has had a good start to the season posting a 3.70 ERA and 1.28 WHIP through 7 starts an some relief appearances. In his last start Marshall limited the Pirates to 1 earned run though he did not go deep into the game pitching only 5 innings. Marshall has not been able to get into the 7^th inning in a single game this season as he is limited on his pitch count and has not been very economical with those pitches.

The Dodgers will start Eric Milton who has been doing well since his return from Tommy John surgery (arm ligament replacement). Milton posted a 2.83 ERA through 7 starts at AAA Albuquerque giving up 11 earned runs, and has a 3.00 ERA from his two starts in the Majors this season. He will have to take on a surging Chicago Cubs offense that is batting .293 and slugging .467 against the Dodgers in this series. While sluggers such as Derrek Lee and Alfonso Soriano have not been stellar by any means other players, such as last years NL Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto, and Mike Fontenot, are picking up their games after slow starts to the season. In Fontenot's case the slow start was due to starting the season on the bench, with injuries bringing him into the starting lineup.

I think Sean Marshall will continue to be a strong starter, but in today's game I expect players like Juan Pierre, Orlando Hudson, and Andre Ethier to make things rough for him. It would be a good start for him to give up 3 runs while going 5 innings. Milton should also have a good game, but will also be limited in pitch count so we should see the bullpens in play for at least 3 innings tonight. I think the Dodgers will have an advantage in that case, but if Soriano, and Derrek Lee can get back on track with their power hitting that advantage will be neutralized. I really think either team would be a good pick tonight. Though I do feel the Dodgers are more likely to perform better on offense I think the Cubs have a greater advantage playing at Wrigley Field.

May 30th, 2009 Picks

2-1-0 today. Though the Dodgers lost my 5 game streak I got back two with the Blue Jays and Giants. I really wish the Azarenka match had not been pushed so far back it had to be suspended due to darkness. I would have taken that pick over the Dodgers any day.

Chicago Cubs 2 - 1 Los Angeles Dodgers

Chad Billingsley and Chris Lilly both had terrific starts in this game as the score was level 0-0 after 6 innings. Matt Kemp hit a home run in the top of the 7^th but the Cubs got the run back and one more in the bottom of the inning. The scoring stopped there and the Cubs took this game of the series 201.

Toronto Blue Jays 6 - 3 Boston Red Sox

The Toronto Blue Jays kept pace with the Red Sox for the first four innings then posted 5 runs on Tim Wakefield in the bottom of the 5^th. It would prove to be enough as they held on 6-3.

San Francisco Giants 4 - 2 St. Louis Cardinals

Joel Piniero walked his eighth batter of the season in the first inning and gave up two runs from two hits to put St. Louis in a hole early. San Francisco added two more runs in the fourth inning, Piniero's last of the game. The Cardinals' bullpen performed admirably but Matt Cain proved too much for St. Louis and the Giants went on to win 4-2. So on to the picks!

1) Corey Pavin vs. Bo Van Pelt – Pavin cards a greater or equal number of birdies
2) Gefle IF @ Trelleborgs FF – Trelleborgs FF win
3) Georgia vs. Missouri – Georgia
4) Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
5) Joey Logano vs. Jason Leffler – Logano has a better finishing position
6) Arizona vs. Alabama – Arizona
7) Holes Under Par Carded By Steve Stricker: 6 or fewer vs. 7 or more – 6 or fewer
8) Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays – Tampa Bay
9) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs – Chicago
10) Michigan vs. Georgia - Michigan
11) Houston Astros @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Houston
12) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Detroit Red WIngs – Pittsburgh
13) San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies – San Diego
14) Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic – Cleveland
15) Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
16) Arizona State vs. Alabama - Alabama

Analysis
1) Corey Pavin is a 49 year old golfer who was one of the top 10 in the world in the late 80's through the late 90's whose last Tour win came in 2006. This year he has failed to make the cut in 9 of the 13 tournaments he's participated in and has only made $154,000 to date.

Pavin celebrates after sinking a putt.

He is currently tied with Bo Van Pelt at one under par through the second round, 13 strokes behind the leader. Van Pelt has had a much better Tour this year, though not great by any means, making the cut in 9 of 13 events, and earning $598,000 from 2 top 10 finishes in them.

In terms of success at this event Pavin still outpaces Van Pelt whose best finish in the past five years was 5^th place in 2004. Pavin has three top 10 finishes at Colonial Country Club, 6^th in 2005, 3^rd in 2006 and 2^nd in 2008, a year in which Van Pelt finished tied for 70^th place. Each player has carded the same number of birdies (five) so far, but Van Pelt has three of those on the front nine, while Pavin has only one birdie on the first nine holes.

Based on the number of holes hit over and under par the front 9 is the more difficult half of the course, with holes 5, 3, and 4 being the most difficult of the course and holes 9, 8, and 7 rounding out the top 10 most difficult holes. Based on their performances on this more difficult side of the course so far this year neither player seems likely to card more than three birdies in the third round, especially considering the increase in difficulty that comes with new pin placements and tee arrangements. Looking at their stats one sees Van Pelt has a birdie average 0.81 better than Pavin so far this year, which is an average of about 1 extra birdie every other 9 holes played. It's a fairly large difference, given tour averages range from around 3.00 to 4.50, but not much over the course of 9 holes. I think neither player will hit birdie that often, but with Pavin being the more successful of the two on the course in recent times I actually like his chances to card more birdies straight up, with the draw being insurance. Previews of the holes can be found here.

<<--~~==¦Follow their round on ShotTracker¦==~~-->>

8) After wrapping up a road trip at cursed Progressive Field where the Rays have lost 16 in a row to the Indians Tampa Bay got back on course with a 5-3 win at home over the Minnesota Twins. Tampa Bay will be starting David Price to try and take game two today, with all the expectations in the world staked on his performance.

David Price gets another chance to prove himself as a starter. Will he make the most of it?

Price was a terrific reliever for the Rays last season and in the playoffs, but the starting rotations struggles has seen him be called up to take on that role as well. In his first start of the year Price lasted all of 3¹/₃ innings. Although he gave up only 2 earned runs it took him 100 pitches to record 10 outs as he walked 5 batters and struck out 6. He will need to work on throwing more strikes in this game as the Twins, with power hitters Mauer, Cuddyer, Morneau, and others, could make the damage too great for Tampa Bay to overcome should he place men on base.

Minnesota will counter with Francisco Liriano, a 25 year old left hander who is still looking for a return to form two years after surgery. He has been up and down all season, alternating shut down performances with `where'd-the-strike-zone-go?' outings. His last twoMIN 5 - 6 BOS(L)
MIN 4 - 7 CWS(L) starts have seen him unable to control his pitches, something both he and his manager agree needs to be worked on.

I think Liriano will find that control, for this game at least, and be able to keep Tampa Bay from scoring more than 3 runs in 6 innings. He's generally followed poor outings with strong ones and I expect it to be the case here. Tampa Bay and Minnesota are both hitting around their average in the past three games so one side or the other could have a breakout performance, but I can see this being more a day for the pitchers. The x-factor will be David Price who is less tested in the starters' role. He has the talent to be a terrific starter, but he needs to work more on throwing strikes if his stuff is going to keep players from putting the ball in play and getting out. If he can last more than 4 innings without giving up too many runs then Tampa Bay will have a chance. Overall, I think Tampa Bay will play strong at home and Minnesota will struggle a bit more at the plate. Of course, with these teams' bullpens anything could happen.

13) The San Diego Padres attempt to get back to their winning ways against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field today. The Padres were 9-1 in their last 10 games before losing 3-0 yesterday to the Rockies.

Jason Hammel will try to keep the Friars of San Diego from belting out doubles all day long.

Colorado, currently 4.5 games back from San Diego and sitting at the bottom of the NL West, is just hoping to pick up wins where they can. With their bats providing little support recently (they are batting .198 and slugging .308 in their last three games) they will rely on Jason Hammel to have a superb outing today. Unfortunately for Colorado Hammel has not had much success home at Coors Field. On the road Hammel has an ERA of 1.64, but in the wide open spaces of Coors Field he has posted a 7.63 ERA in four career starts. ``I've looked at video, both on the road and at home,... Honestly, leaving pitches up is basically what's hurting me." Hammel is coming off a terrific outing against the Tigers in Detroit, but against the Padres things could be rough once again. San Diego are batting only .236 as a team this season they have a decent power rating, with 1.64 total bases per hit though they certainly failed to display that in their shut out yesterday. Hammel faced San Diego at Coors on April 27^th earlier this season and had a difficult time, giving up 4 earned runs from 7 hits in only 3 innings.

Colorado have had their own troubles at the plate recently, batting .198 and slugging .308 in their last three games while scoring only 10 runs. San Diego will hope Josh Geer can compound those probelms. Geer, who has recorded a 4.91 ERA along with a very nice 1.21 WHIP in 6 starts this season, is also coming off a nice start limiting the Cubs to 1 earned run in 6²/₃ innings. Neither pitcher has shown much consistency this season, however, so I would not be surprised to see both teams break free of their hitting troubles tonight.

Overall, I think Hammel will continue his struggles at Coors park, not only because of its hitters nature, but also because of the defensive outfield put out by the Rockies. Hammel has conceded 7 unearned runs in 37¹/₃ innings this season with the Rockies being a bit more error prone than the average team. They are also still recovering from a roster build up which included slugging bats, but did not take into account the speed required to defend a park like Coors Field. I think the Padres are better suited for it and as long as their bats wake up I think they will be able to outpace the Rockies in an offensive battle. Having Cliff Floyd return to the lineup won't hurt with that either. Considering the Padres' bullpen, which has contributed to San Diego winning a league leading 12 games decided by one run, has better numbers overall and in fielding independent statistics I have to give San Diego the advantage in a close game.