May 30th, 2009 Picks

2-1-0 today. Though the Dodgers lost my 5 game streak I got back two with the Blue Jays and Giants. I really wish the Azarenka match had not been pushed so far back it had to be suspended due to darkness. I would have taken that pick over the Dodgers any day.

Chicago Cubs 2 - 1 Los Angeles Dodgers

Chad Billingsley and Chris Lilly both had terrific starts in this game as the score was level 0-0 after 6 innings. Matt Kemp hit a home run in the top of the 7^th but the Cubs got the run back and one more in the bottom of the inning. The scoring stopped there and the Cubs took this game of the series 201.

Toronto Blue Jays 6 - 3 Boston Red Sox

The Toronto Blue Jays kept pace with the Red Sox for the first four innings then posted 5 runs on Tim Wakefield in the bottom of the 5^th. It would prove to be enough as they held on 6-3.

San Francisco Giants 4 - 2 St. Louis Cardinals

Joel Piniero walked his eighth batter of the season in the first inning and gave up two runs from two hits to put St. Louis in a hole early. San Francisco added two more runs in the fourth inning, Piniero's last of the game. The Cardinals' bullpen performed admirably but Matt Cain proved too much for St. Louis and the Giants went on to win 4-2. So on to the picks!

1) Corey Pavin vs. Bo Van Pelt – Pavin cards a greater or equal number of birdies
2) Gefle IF @ Trelleborgs FF – Trelleborgs FF win
3) Georgia vs. Missouri – Georgia
4) Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
5) Joey Logano vs. Jason Leffler – Logano has a better finishing position
6) Arizona vs. Alabama – Arizona
7) Holes Under Par Carded By Steve Stricker: 6 or fewer vs. 7 or more – 6 or fewer
8) Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays – Tampa Bay
9) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs – Chicago
10) Michigan vs. Georgia - Michigan
11) Houston Astros @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Houston
12) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Detroit Red WIngs – Pittsburgh
13) San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies – San Diego
14) Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic – Cleveland
15) Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
16) Arizona State vs. Alabama - Alabama

Analysis
1) Corey Pavin is a 49 year old golfer who was one of the top 10 in the world in the late 80's through the late 90's whose last Tour win came in 2006. This year he has failed to make the cut in 9 of the 13 tournaments he's participated in and has only made $154,000 to date.

Pavin celebrates after sinking a putt.

He is currently tied with Bo Van Pelt at one under par through the second round, 13 strokes behind the leader. Van Pelt has had a much better Tour this year, though not great by any means, making the cut in 9 of 13 events, and earning $598,000 from 2 top 10 finishes in them.

In terms of success at this event Pavin still outpaces Van Pelt whose best finish in the past five years was 5^th place in 2004. Pavin has three top 10 finishes at Colonial Country Club, 6^th in 2005, 3^rd in 2006 and 2^nd in 2008, a year in which Van Pelt finished tied for 70^th place. Each player has carded the same number of birdies (five) so far, but Van Pelt has three of those on the front nine, while Pavin has only one birdie on the first nine holes.

Based on the number of holes hit over and under par the front 9 is the more difficult half of the course, with holes 5, 3, and 4 being the most difficult of the course and holes 9, 8, and 7 rounding out the top 10 most difficult holes. Based on their performances on this more difficult side of the course so far this year neither player seems likely to card more than three birdies in the third round, especially considering the increase in difficulty that comes with new pin placements and tee arrangements. Looking at their stats one sees Van Pelt has a birdie average 0.81 better than Pavin so far this year, which is an average of about 1 extra birdie every other 9 holes played. It's a fairly large difference, given tour averages range from around 3.00 to 4.50, but not much over the course of 9 holes. I think neither player will hit birdie that often, but with Pavin being the more successful of the two on the course in recent times I actually like his chances to card more birdies straight up, with the draw being insurance. Previews of the holes can be found here.

<<--~~==¦Follow their round on ShotTracker¦==~~-->>

8) After wrapping up a road trip at cursed Progressive Field where the Rays have lost 16 in a row to the Indians Tampa Bay got back on course with a 5-3 win at home over the Minnesota Twins. Tampa Bay will be starting David Price to try and take game two today, with all the expectations in the world staked on his performance.

David Price gets another chance to prove himself as a starter. Will he make the most of it?

Price was a terrific reliever for the Rays last season and in the playoffs, but the starting rotations struggles has seen him be called up to take on that role as well. In his first start of the year Price lasted all of 3¹/₃ innings. Although he gave up only 2 earned runs it took him 100 pitches to record 10 outs as he walked 5 batters and struck out 6. He will need to work on throwing more strikes in this game as the Twins, with power hitters Mauer, Cuddyer, Morneau, and others, could make the damage too great for Tampa Bay to overcome should he place men on base.

Minnesota will counter with Francisco Liriano, a 25 year old left hander who is still looking for a return to form two years after surgery. He has been up and down all season, alternating shut down performances with `where'd-the-strike-zone-go?' outings. His last twoMIN 5 - 6 BOS(L)
MIN 4 - 7 CWS(L) starts have seen him unable to control his pitches, something both he and his manager agree needs to be worked on.

I think Liriano will find that control, for this game at least, and be able to keep Tampa Bay from scoring more than 3 runs in 6 innings. He's generally followed poor outings with strong ones and I expect it to be the case here. Tampa Bay and Minnesota are both hitting around their average in the past three games so one side or the other could have a breakout performance, but I can see this being more a day for the pitchers. The x-factor will be David Price who is less tested in the starters' role. He has the talent to be a terrific starter, but he needs to work more on throwing strikes if his stuff is going to keep players from putting the ball in play and getting out. If he can last more than 4 innings without giving up too many runs then Tampa Bay will have a chance. Overall, I think Tampa Bay will play strong at home and Minnesota will struggle a bit more at the plate. Of course, with these teams' bullpens anything could happen.

13) The San Diego Padres attempt to get back to their winning ways against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field today. The Padres were 9-1 in their last 10 games before losing 3-0 yesterday to the Rockies.

Jason Hammel will try to keep the Friars of San Diego from belting out doubles all day long.

Colorado, currently 4.5 games back from San Diego and sitting at the bottom of the NL West, is just hoping to pick up wins where they can. With their bats providing little support recently (they are batting .198 and slugging .308 in their last three games) they will rely on Jason Hammel to have a superb outing today. Unfortunately for Colorado Hammel has not had much success home at Coors Field. On the road Hammel has an ERA of 1.64, but in the wide open spaces of Coors Field he has posted a 7.63 ERA in four career starts. ``I've looked at video, both on the road and at home,... Honestly, leaving pitches up is basically what's hurting me." Hammel is coming off a terrific outing against the Tigers in Detroit, but against the Padres things could be rough once again. San Diego are batting only .236 as a team this season they have a decent power rating, with 1.64 total bases per hit though they certainly failed to display that in their shut out yesterday. Hammel faced San Diego at Coors on April 27^th earlier this season and had a difficult time, giving up 4 earned runs from 7 hits in only 3 innings.

Colorado have had their own troubles at the plate recently, batting .198 and slugging .308 in their last three games while scoring only 10 runs. San Diego will hope Josh Geer can compound those probelms. Geer, who has recorded a 4.91 ERA along with a very nice 1.21 WHIP in 6 starts this season, is also coming off a nice start limiting the Cubs to 1 earned run in 6²/₃ innings. Neither pitcher has shown much consistency this season, however, so I would not be surprised to see both teams break free of their hitting troubles tonight.

Overall, I think Hammel will continue his struggles at Coors park, not only because of its hitters nature, but also because of the defensive outfield put out by the Rockies. Hammel has conceded 7 unearned runs in 37¹/₃ innings this season with the Rockies being a bit more error prone than the average team. They are also still recovering from a roster build up which included slugging bats, but did not take into account the speed required to defend a park like Coors Field. I think the Padres are better suited for it and as long as their bats wake up I think they will be able to outpace the Rockies in an offensive battle. Having Cliff Floyd return to the lineup won't hurt with that either. Considering the Padres' bullpen, which has contributed to San Diego winning a league leading 12 games decided by one run, has better numbers overall and in fielding independent statistics I have to give San Diego the advantage in a close game.

May 29th, 2009 Picks

1-0-0 today and so after breaking the '5' barrier I'll try and take 2 a day to get to 9 again. Then third tries the charm to get that 10 game streak. *crosses fingers*

Baltimore 5 - 1 Detroit

Baltimore's David Hernandez had a decent start to his Major league career giving up only 1 earned run. He had some issues with walking batters, but was able to get out of most jams. Armando Galrraga appeared solid, pitching through 7 innings while giving up a total of two earned runs. Both teams had to work to get on base but it was in the 8^th inning that Luke Scott hit his second home run of the game, a 3 run shot off of Perry, to more or less cinch the victory for Baltimore. Sherrill came on in the 9^th and retired 1-2-3 to end the game. And so on to the picks.

1) Steve Stricker vs. Stewart Cink – Cink cards a lower front 9 score
2) Carla Suarez-Navarro vs. Victoria Azarenka – Azarenka
3) Brian Gay vs. Vijay Singh - Gay cards a lower second round score
4) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs – Los Angeles
5) Clermont Foot @ Vannes OC – Vannes OC win
6) Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles – Detroit
7) Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
8) Ron Hornaday Jr. vs. Kyle Busch – Busch has a better finishing position
9) Washington vs. Arizona State - Washington
10) Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets – Denver
11) Michigan vs. Florida - 8 runs or more
12) San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies – Colorado
13) St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants – San Francisco

Analysis
1) Steve Stricker has been having a terrific year, with 5 top 10 finishes, including a 2^nd place finish at the Northern Trust Open in February and a 3^rd place finish at the Bob Hope Classic, netting him nearly $2 million from 11 events.

Stricker reacts in frustration after missing a putt at Colonial while Cink celebrates. Will this scene be repeated?

Stewart Cink cannot boast the same kind of success. Aside from a 3^rd place finish at the World Golf Championship Accenture Match Play event he has finished no higher than 24^th and has missed the cut three times. His reward for these efforts has been a `paltry' $860,000. Cink has also underperformed at the Colonial, carding a 71 in the first round, especially compared to Stricker who is co-leader with a 7-under par 63.

Since 2004 Cink has more experience on the course, with 17 rounds played and Stricker with 11 rounds. Both players have a median front 9 score of -1 and each have carded only two front 9 scores over par. Cink's best front 9 was a -5 in the first round in 2006 while Stricker carded his best round yesterday, a -4 thanks in large part to his long range putting. Cink's worst score is +1, in 2004 and 2005, while Stricker carded his worst score of +2 in the second round of 2008. I wouldn't be surprised to see Stricker fall away from the leader position in this round, but he's been so much better than Cink all year I can't honestly recommend picking against him here. I do think Cink will have a better front 9 score with more experience on his side, but it's a long shot. Previews of the holes can be found here. The par 4 hole number 5 proved to be the most difficult of the day with less than half the field reaching the green in regulation. It could be a make or break hole for these two today.

<<--~~==¦Follow their round on ShotTracker¦==~~-->>

A view of the green on hole #3, protected by bunkers.

2) 19 year old Victoria Azarenka is looking to continue her solid play this year, which has seen win her first premier tournament (over an injured Serena Williams) and climb to #9 in the Women's World Rankings. She has already achieved the pinnacle of success in mixed doubles play, winning the 2007 U.S. Open mixed doubles title and the same in the 2008 French Open.

Azarenka plays with a knee brace in the second round while Navarro calmly defeats her opponent to advance.

Her opponent in the third round is Carla Suarez Navarro who has gone through to the finals in one event this year, at Marbella, but has generally been exited through the second or first rounds. She lost to Azarenka earlier this year in straight sets, their only previous encounter.

Last year Azarenka made it through to the fourth round before losing to fourth seeded Svetlana Kuznetsova.

Victoria Azarenka looks to match her progress in last years French Open with a third round victory.

Navarro did one better, defeating the 26^th seeded Flavia Pennetta in the fourth round only to be defeated herself by third seeded Jelena Janković in the quarterfinals. Azarenka is large favorite to win the match today (-200 or so to +130 for Navarro) and given her play this year I can see why. With her knee injury, however, she may not be as strong as she would be otherwise and a retirement looms as a larger and larger possibility the further she goes into the tournament. You can track the progress of the match with the widget up top or click here to see live scores from the Roland Garros site directly.

3) So far this year Brian Gay has three top 10 finishes, including a Tour victory at Harbour Town in April where he set the 72-hole Tour record at -20 and the Verizon Heritage margin of victory record at 10 strokes.

Vijay took a lot of flak in 2002 for saying the PGA Tour was designated for men to play, and make money, on.

He also has two other top 10 finishes on the Tour this year, earning him nearly $1.7 million from 13 events. Vijay Singh has had his difficulties as he missed three weeks on the tour near the end of January recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery and has been taking things easy as he recovers. He's missed the cut 4 out of 10 events since the surgery but appeared to be back on track with a 9^th place finish at TPC Sawgrass three weeks ago. His 63 7-under par in the first round at the Colonial certainly seems to back up that assumption.

Singh himself credits part of that success to playing alongside Kenny Perry, saying: "I know the golf course, and Kenny was making a lot of shots as well, and we played off each other...." It's a good sign for Singh considering he hasn't played this event since the Annika Sorenstam incident. Singh levied harsh criticism at the tour and the sponsors for entering her into the Bank One Colonial (as it was known back then) saying that it took valuable spots away from men for whom the Tour was set up for. He's back and it appears the public has more or less forgiven him.

To the contrary, Brian Gay has been a regular at this event, playing every year from 2004 to present. In that time he has played 19 rounds, carding scores of 69 or better in 10 of them. He tied his best score, a 5-under 65, last year in the second round. His 10^th place finish in 2008 was his best ever at Colonial. I fully expect both players to card low scores, below 68 at least, with the greens remaining soft after the rains a few days ago. With Singh having already carded his best score of the tournament in all likelihood and Gay yet to card his I have to favor Brian Gay in this matchup.

Preview the back nine.

<<--~~==¦Follow their round on ShotTracker¦==~~-->>

4) The Los Angeles Dodgers struggled away from Dodger Stadium with Manny Ramirez in the lineup. Nearly 50 games into the season they have managed to find a way to win away without him. Los Angeles will go for their fifth straight win away from home after sweeping the Rockies in Colorado and taking the first game of the series at Wrigley Field. L.A. has been hitting the ball well in their past three games with a .305 batting average but only a .362 slugging average.

Can Billingsley and the Dodgers pull off another heart stopping victory at Wrigley Field?

Fortunately, they've managed to bunch together the multitude of hits leading to 17 runs scored in three wins. It's the Dodgers' pitching and fielding which has allowed them to win on the road, however, limiting their opponents to 8 runs in those three games. They'll need both strong pitching and strong batting in order to keep up with Chicago's hot bats

The Cubs had been slumping heavily, losing 8 in a row before picking up two wins against the Pirates. Including the loss to the Dodgers the Cubs are batting .330 with a .523 slugging average in their last three games. It was Randy Wolf's and Troncoso's pitching which limited the Cubs to one run in the last game and without it the Dodgers would surely have lost.

The Dodgers have placed Ohman on the disabled list leaving their bullpen 'short' with 7 men, but Broxton, Belisario, and Wade should all be available to pitch with Chad Billingsley hoped to go deep into the game. Billingsley has been superb for the Dodgers this year, posting a 6-2 record to go along with his 2.82 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He will be facing off against Chris Lilly today, who has been decent to say the least, with a 3.77 ERA and a stellar 1.10 WHIP. Lilly's ground ball to fly ball ratio is about half of Billingsley's so it's no surprise he's given up 10 home runs this season compared to Billingsley's 1, but it is surprising he's done so well keeping men off base. Credit the Cubs' fielding and Lilly's ability to throw strikes and avoid walking batters. With the Dodgers having not hit a single home run in their past three games they will be looking to take advantage of the long hits Lilly is prone to give up.

Both Billingsley and Lilly struggled a bitBillingsley - 6IP, 9H, 4ER, 6K, 1BB

Lilly - 6.1IP, 8H, 5ER, 4K, 2BB in their last starts, giving up 4 or 5 earned runs over 6 innings off of 8 or 9 hits. I think both pitchers will pitch near shut outs today and it will come down to the bullpens over a 1 or 2 innings, and clutch batting in the final inning. It should be close, but I think the Dodgers will have the lead going into the ninth, possibly from a home run earlier in the game, and will be able to hold on with Broxton pitching.

10)	Keys for Denver: Stop whining about calls, take high percentage shots, and get big games from J.R. Smith and Chris Andersen.

It's Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals and the Denver Nuggets face elimination for the first time this postseason. After the teams split Games 3 and 4 by getting away from the 'last-one-to-score-wins' motif of the series with Denver winning by 19 at home and the Lakers taking one at the Staples Center by 9. Bloggers for each team give their opinionsPickaxe N' Roll (DEN)

Lakers Nation (LAL) give their previews of the game with each side identifying attacking the basket and taking smart shots as keyes to the game.

From ``Lakers Nation'': The Lakers will have to control the tempo, the glass, get back in transition, and stop the dribble penetration as well as rotate out to three point shooters. The Lakers will need to slow Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups & Nene. Limit the impact of the explosive yet volatile J.R. Smith.

``Pickaxe N' Roll'' identifies 7 keys to the game, the most important of which being the rebounding battle. Looking at the box scores from Games 3 and 4 the offensive rebounding stats jump out. In their 19 point victory the Nuggets had a 20-9 edge on the offensive glass, but only a 14-10 edge in their Game 5 loss. Clearly, the Nuggets either need to start making the smarter shots or completely dominate the offensive boards to pick up a win in this game. Finally, Magic Johnson and Brent Barry chime in with their reasons for why this series will go to a Game 7. Essentially, home court advantage will enable Denver to make the plays they need to make to win.

13) The St. Louis Cardinals hope they can somehow find a way to rediscover their slumping offense which has scored a meager 3.6 runs per game in their last three games. They've also batted only .222 with a .414 slugging average in this games. Yet, despite their lack of offense the Cardinals are riding a two game winning streak as they visit AT&T Park to take on Matt Cain and the San Francisco Giants.

San Francisco will depend on Matt Cain to make Ankiel and Ludwick's return to the order a quiet one.

A big part of that success has been the performance of their pitching staff, limiting Milwaukee to one and two runs in the victories. St. Louis will start Joel Piniero tonight who is coming off a 3-2 loss to the Royals. Piniero has walked 7 batters in 61¹/₃ innings pitched this season and has a remarkably low K/9 of 3.1, meaning nearly all of his outs are from balls in play.

The Cardinals will thus welcome Ricky Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick back into the lineup tonight with open arms and a sigh of relief. It may not be coincidence the Cardinals' slump in May has come at the same time these two have been out of the lineup. Aside from providing much needed strength at the plate the two are skilled fielders, something Piniero's success depends on. San Francisco already has one of the lowest rated offnses in the league and will have their work cut out for them tonight.

Matt Cain will certainly aid San Francisco in keeping up with the Cardinals. Cain has a 2.40 ERA and 1.32 WHIP this season and is coming off a very nice start in Seattle where he gave up only 1 earned run from 10 hits. He also had 7 strikeouts without walking a batter. I would not bet on Cain limiting the Cardinals to one run if he gives up 10 hits tonight with St. Louis averaging nearly a double with every hit in their last three games. Cain has a 9.58 ERA in two career appearances against St. Louis so I expect he will be sorely tested.

Overall, I think Ludwick and Ankiel will make their presence felt most in the out field, limiting the Giants' hits. San Francisco is batting .327 in their last three games, all wins, so I expect their batting numbers to go down. Still, I think Cain is the better overall pitcher and with a bit of luck the Giants will be able to find the gaps in the outfield enabling them to still get their share of hits. As long as Cain does not have a disastrous outing I think the Giants should win this game, but the Cardinals will have a chance at every point in the game.

May 28th, 2009 Picks

Nice, 2-0-0 again today, although I have to apologize for coming out with such shitty blog picks… honestly I haven’t looked into them much at all the past few days as I’ve been learning web development (javascript/XML/AJAX/CSS/etc.) I swear I'll break .500 today.

Detroit 8 - 3 Kansas City

Detroit was solid today against Davies. They fell behind in the 1^st but took the lead back, and for good, in the 2nd. The game broke open for Detroit in the 5^th and 6^th innings. Polanco knocked in 2 more in the 5^th with his first home run of the season and 2 more runs scored with 2 outs in the 6^th.

Jered Weaver - 103 pitches; Angels 3 - 1 White Sox

Jered Weaver had one inning retired with 7 pitches and others with over 15. The Angels left him in for the 8^th inning with a 3-1 lead and he used 9 pitches to retire three, ending up at 103 total. The Angels won the game 3-1. It was the first run Weaver had given up to the White Sox in 23 innings. So on to the picks.

1) Rory Sabbatini vs. Mike Weir – Sabbatini cards a lower front 9 score
2) Sidharth Chand vs. Kavya Shivashankar – Shivashankar finishes better
3) Andy Roddick vs. Ivo Minar – 39 games or more
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Indians – Cleveland
5) Washington vs. Georgia – Washington
6) Boston Red Sox @ Minnesota Twins – Minnesota
7) Geoff Ogilvie vs. J.B. Holmes – Ogilvie cards a lower first round score
8) Missouri vs. Arizona State – Arizona State
9) Alabama vs. Michigan – Alabama
10) Detroit @ Baltimore – Baltimore
11) Scripps Nat’l Spelling Bee – No. of Letters in Final Word: 9 or less vs. 10 or more – 9 or less
12) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs – Los Angeles
13) D. Howard and R. Lewis pts. vs. L. James pts. – Howard and Lewis pts.
14) Arizona vs. Florida – 4 runs or fewer
15) Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Arizona
16) Chicago Fire @ Chivas USA – Chicago win or draw

Analysis

Rory Sabbatini won the Colonial in 2007 and was 7-under par on the front 9 in four rounds.

1) Rory Sabbatini has had a good year on the Tour thus far with four top 10 finishes 19 weeks in. Mike Weir has also done alright for himself, becoming a millionaire for the year with 2 top 10 finishes. Sabbatini, a Forth Worth resident, has historically performed better on his home town course with a median front 9 score of -1 since 2004 while Mike Weir has a median front 9 score of even par. Sabbatini has carded front 9 scores under par in 11 of 18(61%) rounds played in that time. Mike Weir has carded the same in 6 of 14(43%) rounds. Sabbatini also won this event in 2007 though he failed to make the cut last year. Weir's top finish was 8^th place in 2000 with his second best finish being 15^th last year.

The course has been altered some from last year and Sabbatini discusses how those changes will affect play. "Under the conditions we’ll play it, I think it’s going to play about four shots harder," said Sabbatini. Four shots harder? "No. Four shots per round, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it play that much tougher." Rain soaked the grounds on Tuesday so there is a question of if the course will be hard and dry in time for the first round, which would increase it's difficulty. Previews of the holes can be found here.

<<--~~==¦Follow their round on ShotTracker¦==~~-->>

2) It's the semi-finals of the 2009 Scripps National Spelling Bee and as per their agreement ESPN will be televising this event. This will be 12 year old Kavya Shivashankar's fourth straight appearance in the competition, finishing 10^th or better the three years previous. At 13 years old Sidharth Chand is making his second appearance after debuting last year with a runner up finish.

Sidharth Chand stays cool under pressure.

At 11 years old Kavya Shivashankar misses a word in the finals last year and let's her emotions show.

Unsurprisingly there are sportsbooks setting odds on this event. BetUS.com is one such site giving odds for everything from who will last longer, to the length of the winning word, even whether a child will vomit during the competition. For what it's worth BetUS has Shivashankar with better odds to go further in the Bee and I'll go with her experience on this one.

3)

Andy Roddick is 3-0 against Ivo Minar in his career, winning once in 2007 and twice in 2008. He's won in straight sets one time, at the ATP Masters last year, with Minar taking a set in each of the other two matches. In their matches the loser of the set has won an average of 4.6 games, with the past 4 sets they've played going to tie break each time. The French Open is a Major on the ATP Tour so it will be a best 3 out of 5 match with the winner of the match taking 18 to 21 games. In order for 39 games to be played each player must win at least 18 games, at which point 38 games will have been played (with 2 tie breaks) with the eventual winner needing at least 1 more game to take victory. You can check out the scores with the SlamTracker widget up top and to the right, or in a new tab by clicking here.

6) The Minnesota Twins will be counting on Anthony Swarzak to help them take 3 of 4 in their series with Boston today. Swarzak had been tearing up the minors with AAA Rochester so he was on the short list of players to be called up when Glen Perkins went on the disabled list with irritated nerves in his elbow.

How many innings will Swarzak extend his scoreless streak?

His first career start in the Majors was a 7 inning shutout of the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers are a good offensive team and it won't get any easier facing the Red Sox who, despite scoring only 10 runs in their last three games, are batting .284 with a .394 slugging average. Swarzak will also have to contend with Jason Varitek who will be returning to the lineup today. Minnesota will be hoping their own bats will play a factor in this game with Delmar Young breaking his hitless streak yesterday and Denard Span returning to the lineup.

Boston will be starting Josh Beckett who has had three straight quality starts after struggling for a couple of weeks. Swarzak's 7 shutout innings look mundane compared to Beckett's last outing, where he limited the New York Mets to 0 runs from 5 hits. Over their careers the Twins' batting order has 66 at bats against Beckett and have recorded a .333 batting average along with a .636 slugging average. If they can duplicate those numbers against Beckett tonight the Twins will win easily.

Overall, I think Ellsbury, Varitek, and the rest of the Boston all-stars will make life a little difficult for Swarzak and his streak of shutout innings will come to a close. It will be up to the Twins' offense to keep themselves in the game. I think Beckett and Swarzak will each pitch well and the game should be close and low scoring. Joe Nathan has converted 12 of 12 save opportunities against Boston in his career and I think he'll get a chance to do so again today.

7) Geoff Ogilvy is the odds on favorite to win the Colonial this year while J.B. Holmes is considered someone who will make an appearance on the leaderboard. Holmes has only played in this event once before, in 2007, and he missed the cut with rounds of 72 and 69. Ogilvy has played in this round five times from 2001 through 2008 and has never missed the cut, with a low round of 66 and a high round of 75 both carded in 2001. Last year he carded rounds of 72, 70, 67, and 70.

<<--~~==¦Follow their round on ShotTracker¦==~~-->>

10) AL East cellar dwellers Baltimore look to extend their season long winning streak to 4 games today against the AL Central leading Detroit Tigers. Both teams are riding hot streaks offensively with Detroit scoring 7.3 runs per game and Baltimore scoring 7.6 in their last three games. Both teams are batting over .300 in those games but Baltimore is batting harder, with a .575 slugging average compared to .455 for the Tigers. That makes for a very interesting ball game.

The Orioles will be grinning at the plate if Armando Galarraga continues to struggle with his command.

Armando Galarraga, who has recorded a 5.74 ERA and 1.55 WHIP through 9 starts this season, will be starting for the Tigers. Galarraga has been working in between starts to fix his mechanics which have been inconsistent of late. His last five startsDET 3 - 4 COL (L)
DET 11 - 7 (W)
DET 2 - 6 MIN (L)
DET 0 - 6 CWS (L)
DET 5 - 6 CLE (L) have seen him give up 25 earned runs in 22²/₃ innings.

Facing off against Galarraga will be another young prospect for the Orioles, David Hernandez. On Hernandez potentially starting Orioles manager Dave Trembley said, "Yeah, the guy who struck out 14 the other night, ... He's starting tomorrow." Indeed, Hernandez recorded 14 strikeouts and zero walks in his last outing with the Norfolk Tide on the 22^nd. Obviously that was AAA baseball and this is the Majors, but honestly AAA is full of major league players who are missing one or two elements from their game to make the team.

I think Hernandez, like Berken the other day, will prove to be the real McCoy and will put the brakes on Detroit's hot hitting. Galarraga is due to have a good start but I think he's just as likely to continue to struggle until he's placed on the disabled list. He really is a 4.50 ERA pitcher in the majors based on his DICE (defense independent component ERA) from last season so even if he does settle down I think the Orioles will score a few runs off of him. Neither bullpen is that great, with Detroit's being slightly better in terms of strikeouts, home runs, and earned run average, so unless one team has a 4 or 5 run lead going into the 8^th it should be anyones game. I give the Orioles the advantage to be the team with that kind of lead.

11) Estimates on the number of words in the English language depend on what is included as a word. For example, to 'run' is a verb, but is a 'run' scored another word? Do run, runs, running, ran all count as separate words? Then there is debate over what constitute an English word. Slate.com has a nice article on this and report that unabridged dictionaries carry between 300,000 to 600,000 words. As for how many contain 10 letters or more the same issues arise, but estimates put the limit at around 60,000 or 10% of all words. The Scripps Spelling Bee website contains a list of winning words from 1925 to 2008. In those 83 years 34 winning words had a length of at least 10 letters, or 41% of the time. It has been three years since such a word decided the contest, but from 2001 to 2005 the winning word was over 10 letters long each year. I favor 9 letters or fewer as there are more words to choose from and plenty of tricky ones.

13) The Orlando Magic visit Quicken Loans Arena to take on the Cleveland Cavaliers, up 3-1 and on the verge of the NBA Finals. They have looked very nice in the first five games, with their only loss being on that LeBron James three pointer with one second remaining⁺⁺. Much has been made of LeBron James' scoring in the three losses, averaging a monster 44 and some fraction points per game while the Cavaliers keep losing.

LeBron passes, Mo scores, and Z, West, Andy and Co. are smiling.

I think the focus for Cleveland, however, isn't how they're going to score points, but how they are going to keep Orlando from scoring theirs. The Magic provide any opponent with a headache on the defensive end, with Dwight Howard dominant in the paint, and a front court that boasts two 6'10" players, Turkoglu and Lewis, who can score from three point range and take it to the rim. Add on to that a crafty Rafer Alston, and two young undervalued guards in Courtney Lee and Mickael Pietrus and the Magic force any opponent to pick their poison. Mike Brown should be smart enough to recognize he won't be able to stop the Magic, as a team, from scoring if he focuses on stopping a specific player. He will need to work on a team defensive concept that has players helping one another out on double teams and moving to set positions before the offensive player does.

Unfortunately for Cleveland, I don't think they have the personnel to implement that kind of a plan. With the three point shooting coming from nearly every position the Magic force a team to stretch their defense which creates passing lanes, and creases to get to the basket for high percentage shots. It would take some sheer speed and quickness to get back and forth between defenders, and the Cavaliers just don't have that. No team does. The Magic will probably go with the defense that's helped them to win three games already and focus on LeBron James, but not too much. That is, they'll double team him, deny him the ball, and front him, but not every possession, not if it means leaving other players wide open. There's a nice preview of the game on Third Quarter Collapse, an Orlando Magic blog. They see the home court helping the Cavaliers' role players to, well, play a bigger role. If that happens LeBron will probably end up with around 30 points, while Howard and Lewis should eclipse 40. Of course, Orlando might have their 'bad game' of the series and score only 80, but I hope not.

⁺⁺As an aside here's a priceless reaction to LeBron's miracle three from a local Cleveland news team while they're on the air.

16)	Chicago has yet to meet defeat on the road.

Here's a preview of the match from ESPN. Essentially, both teams are at full strength with Chicago boasting the top most goals scored on the road in the league and Chivas USA the fewest goals allowed. At home Chivas USA is 5-1-0 (W-D-L) while Chicago are 3-3-0 on the road. Based on goals scored and allowed I would give Chivas USA about a 41% chance of winning the match outright, meaning Chicago winning or drawing comes in at 59%. With neither team recording a loss through six matches home/away I would consider a draw as a very likely possibility.