May 23rd, 2009 Picks

2-1-0 today, with the Alabama Crimson Tide piling on 7 runs in the 3^rd inning, then I picked the Pirates. Pittsburgh barely managed two hits off of Gavin Floyd. Zach Duke pitched a good game, 8 innings, 6 hits, 2 earned runs, but when the support is lacking so badly you get only 2 hits, let alone 2 runs, it's tough to pick up a win. My last pick was the Los Angeles Angels. Kershaw and Weaver both did terrific, getting themselves out of jams and giving up only 1 earned run despite putting men on base most innings. Cory Wade gave up a couple of singles and walked a batter to load the bases with only one out in the 8^th inning and Figgins drove in a couple of runs to give the Angels a 3-1 lead. Arredondo and Fuentes completed the game without allowing any Dodgers to reach base. So on to the picks.

1) Vijay Singh vs. Davis Love III – Singh cards a lower front 9 score
2) TSG Hoffenheim @ Schalke 04 – Schalke 04 win
3) Duke vs. Stanford – Duke
4) Alabama (v. Jacksonville State) vs. Washington (v. Georgia Tech) – Alabama win margin
5) Cornell vs. Virgnia – Virginia
6) Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros – Texas
7) Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals – Washington
8) Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins – Milwaukee
9) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Carolina Hurricanes – Carolina
10) Greg Biffle vs. Kevin Harvick – Harvick has a better finishing position
11) Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets – Denver
12) San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners – San Francisco

Analysis
1) Vijay Singh had arthroscopic knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee after the Mercedes-Benz Championship in January. He missed three weeks on the Tour while rehabilitating and missed the cut of the first two events he participated in and has played about every other weekend since then. He looked good in The Players Championship at Sawgrass, finishing 9^th but has been below average so far this weekend. He has played this event every year from 2001 to 2007 but missed last year. Since the event was played on the Cottonwood Valley course for one round until 2008 Singh has played only 21 rounds on the TPC course in that time despite missing the cut only once. He's carded front 9 scores of -1 (6×) and -2 (8×) most often with a best score of -4 in 2004 and a worst score of +3 in 2006.

Vijay Singh and Davis Love III - Front 9 Scorecards - TPC Four Seasons
Player/Round	1/4	2/3	3/4	4/4	5/3	6/4	7/5	8/4	9/4	Out/35
Love III/1st	4	3	4	5	2	3	4	5	4	34
Love III/2nd	4	2	3	4	4	4	3	4	3	31
Singh/1st	4	3	4	3	4	3	5	3	4	33
Singh/2nd	4	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	33
Click on hole # to see a gallery of images.				Eagle		Birdie		Par		Bogey

Davis Love III has been fairly good this season, finishing near the top 25 in most events, though he did miss the cut at the TPC at Sawgrass. This is the first time he has participated in the event since 2002. That year he carded front 9 scores of E, +1, and -1. Looking at the scorecard one can see that Vijay Singh has bogeyed in both rounds on hole #5. Singh overhit his tee shot both times, failing to land on the green and two-putting from 8 to 9 feet after the chip shot. I think Singh will continue to have trouble putting, but also that Davis Love III will not have such a stellar performance on the green as he did in the second round. I think both players will card 34 or 33 and would favor Davis Love III in this matchup if it weren't for Singh showing he was healthy enough to succeed at Sawgrass.

4) Alabama defeated Jacksonville State 9-0 in 5 innings after they exploded for 7 runs in the bottom of the 3^rd. Alabama had already defeated Jacksonville State 9 - 0 in 5 innings on February 8^th so it was no fluke. Looking over the Crimson Tide's schedule this season has seen them win by nearly 7 runs in 53 wins by limiting their opponents to an average of 1 run in their losses.

Washington will face Georgia Tech for the first time this season after going 3-1 in their regional by outscoring their opponents by an average of 6 runs to 2. Washington is one of 6 PAC-10 schools to make it to their Super Regional, the most of any conference. This season the Huskies have been very successful, defeating #1 Florida 1-0 in 9 innings on February 20^th and splitting a pair of games with Alabama, each team winning once 6-0. In 44 wins Washington has held their opponents to an average of 1.3 runs while scoring 6.3 themselves.

Alabama score 9 or more runs in 37.7% of their wins while Washington scored 9 or more in only 25% of theirs, though the Huskies did play a tougher schedule. I think more than anything it will come down to how many runs Georgia Tech and Jacksonville State score and allow and there the advantage goes to seeded Georgia Tech. You can follow each game with NCAA.com's Gametracker application for edge of your seat 'action'.

6) The Texas Rangers visit the Houston Astros in a game that would be an intra-state rivalry if the two teams weren't in separate leagues. The Rangers won the first game 6-5 after Nelson Cruz hit his ninth home run of the season in the top of the 10^th. Starting for Texas in this game will be Scott Feldman who has recorded a 4.04 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in his fifth season, making this a career year for him.

The Rangers can put their stamp on the state of Texas with a second win over the Astros today.

After struggling through 6²/₃ innings and giving up 9 earned runs as a relief pitcher Feldman has given up a a total of 7 earned runs in 29 innings as a starter. His last start was against the Los Angeles Angels where he pitched 6 scoreless innings by giving up only 4 hits. Houston should make life tough for him with Hunter Pence being red hot in the month of May. As a whole the Astros' lineup has taken 21 at bats against Feldman, batting .286 and slugging nearly double that. Texas will have to hope Feldman has imporved since then, and I would like to think he has. The Rangers will also return Chris Davis to the lineup after giving him a day off yesterday in the hope it will spark his batting. In his last 5 games he has gone 0 for 16 with 8 strikeouts. If Davis can add his bat to those of Kinsler, Jones, and Hamilton, to name just a few, the Rangers should be able to provide Feldman with all the run support he needs.

Houston will have Brian Moehler on the mound who suffered through a horrendous start to the season, giving up 12 earned runs over 4 innings in his first two starts. Yes, his ERA was 27.00 when he was put on the disabled list. Since coming back he has done much better with Houston winning two of his three starts, including 6-5 over the Cubs in his last start. How he'll do against the slugger heavy Rangers lineup is anybody's guess though I expect him to have a quality start at Minute Maid Park, allowing 3 or 4 runs in 5 or 6 innings.

Both teams are batting fairly well recently with Houston getting more hits on average, but Texas is getting more bases out of their hits in their last 3 games. With Texas, however, the offense can come from anywhere in the order, while Houston is relying on 3 or 4 batters spread throughout the lineup to score runs. One thing that has me favoring Texas in the end is the relief pitching of the Astros. Houston's relievers have given up the second most home runs in the league, behind only the Yankees' bullpen, with every pitcher in their rotation having given up at least 1 home run and the bullpen as a whole giving up a home run every 6 innings they pitch. Against a Rangers team that has racked up 67 home runs in 41 games that is not good news.

UPDATE: Ian Kinsler, Michael Young and Andruw Jones are not in the lineup today. They will be replaced by Omar Vizquel, Hank Blalock, and Josh Hamilton

7) The Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals play the second game of their interleague Beltway Battle today. Baltimore took the first game with a 2 RBI double by Adam Jones in the top of the 12^th inning. Washington had only 4 hits in the game, and have not hit too well in their past three games at all with a batting average of .180 and a .260 slugging average.

The Nationals seek just their third win in 11 games.

That's a big slump for a team who is batting .272 on the season. They will be facing off against 34 year old right hander Koji Uehara. The Orioles picked up Uehara from the Yomiuri Giants where he was very successful, winning his first 15 starts as a rookie in 1999. As an Oriole he's done well, recording a 4.34 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. His last start, at Kansas City, was typical of how his season has gone, as he pitched 5 innings, giving up 2 hits and 1 run and then proceeded to give up 4 hits and 3 runs to lead off the top of the 6^th. Uehara would have all-star numbers were it not for his tendency to put men on base and give up runs near the end of his pitch count.

Out of the other dugout will be Ross Detwiler who has one start in the Majors this season after pitching for Harrisburg (AA). He was relieved after 5 innings with the Nationals in the lead, but once again the Washington bullpen went down hard, giving up 7 runs and giving Detwiler a no decision start. Baltimore has been batting (.280) and slugging (.500) above average in their last three games and Washington's pitching will be tested.

Yesterday's game saw the bullpens perform well, but Washington's eventually gave out. In this game I think the Nationals' offense will wake up, though probably later in the game given Uehara's track record of quality starts. Hopefully, for the Nationals, the younger Detwiler can live up to his potential and he should give the Nationals an advantage over the aging Uehara and the Orioles. Then it would be a tossup over which bullpen will blow up first, but with Ron Villone joining the team on May 7^th and the general management figuring out who should be in their relief sequence I think the Nationals have a very good chance of winning this one at home.

11) The Los Angeles Lakers head to Denver to take on the Nuggets with the series tied 1-1 after a disappointing 3 point loss in Game 2. Los Angeles looked like they might steal another game, literally, when Trevor Ariza stole a J.R. Smith pass and fed Kobe Bryant the ball to tie the game up at 101 apiece. The Nuggets took the lead again and forced a jump ball on the next possession and Ariza simply fumbled the ball away to give Denver possession and eventually the game.

It's been a while since Denver last appeared in a Conference Finals.

The difference between a win and a loss for Denver in the two games was offensive rebounding. They had 7 offensive rebounds in Game 1 and doubled that number with 14 in Game 2. The Nuggets also improved on their free throw shooting in Game 2 with Billups and Anthony taking 30 of their 37 attempts for the game, whereas in Game 1 the duo took less than half of the teams attempts and it showed with Denver shooting 65.7% from the line in the first game. For the Lakers the difference was not much, 3 fewer three pointers in Game 2, 4 fewer offensive rebounds, and that turnover by Ariza. There's really no reason to expect today's game to be anything other than a slug 'em out battle, other than Denver having home court, with the winner being who can deliver strong blows after taking one themselves.

Los Angeles will need to do a better job of fronting Carmelo Anthony, keeping the ball out of his hands, and trapping Chauncey Billups, forcing him to give up the ball early in the possession. The Lakers have an advantage at the foul line when they force other Nuggets players to take those free throws rather than allowing Billups and Anthony to get in the paint and either make close range shots or put them on the line. That will be the biggest factor in Los Angeles winning this game, I believe. On the other end of the court Denver has done a bang up job swarming Pau Gasol, making it difficult for him to take advantage of the smaller defenders so L.A. will need to make the extra pass and have their role players knocking down the open shots available to them.

Denver might like to try a little role reversal and take the Lakers' place in the Finals

Denver will be looking to get better play out of their two bench stars, Chris Andersen and J.R. Smith. Anderson has combined for 10 points, 2 offensive rebounds, and 3 blocked shots in the two games, while Smith has gone 3 for 9 from three point range. With solid defense and offensive rebounding the Nuggets will win this game if those two players can improve in those areas with Smith shooting 40% from three point range and Andersen collecting 4 offensive rebounds and 3 blocks. If they don't get those contributions a random appearance by Andrew Bynum could make their efforts on Gasol, and their victory at the Staples Center, all for naught.

12) The San Francisco Giants have hit a terrible slump, going 2-8 in their last 10 games, batting .178 in their last 3, and scoring only 4 runs in those games. The Seattle Mariners have not been much better, batting .210 and slugging only .219 in their last 3 games on route to scoring 3 runs.

Can the Giants score at Safeco Field?

Amazingly they have gone 2-1 in that stretch behind the strength of their pitching staff and a bullpen sequence that now includes a fully healthy Miguel Batista. San Francisco is hoping they can turn their luck around with Matt Cain pitching. Cain went 15-30 the past two seasons, mostly due to a lack of run support. Against Garret Olson the Giants have a hope of at least hitting their average numbers, around .250 and 4 runs per game. Cain could certainly shut out the Mariners for 6 or 7 innings, much like he did to the Mets in his last start. If the Giants fail to break out of their overall hitting slump, and provide run support early on for Cain, the Mariners bullpen should be able to hold them off and provide Seattle with a victory. I have a feeling the Giants won't let it come to that today and Cain will pick up his fifth win of the season.

May 22nd, 2009 Picks

Ahh man, I was all set to take it easy on the stunt props, and started out only taking Banalore which was a true blue guaranteed lock when you could select the matchup after Bangalore had already won the toss and elected to bat first. So my streak was at 9 and for some reason I went with no scoring in the 1st inning with Texas and Detroit instead of waiting for Greinke. A first inning home run by each team ended that streak and from there it was a flurry of poor selections. A couple were just bad luck, like a fielding error by Minnesota allowing Quentin to get to bat for the Sox and getting the 2nd hit of the inning, and Bedard giving up a home run to Rivera in the first inning with 3 balls on the count. There ended up being only 3 extra base hits in the entire game, all home runs by the Angels.

Overall I went 8-6-0 on the day, so it could have been worse. Amazingly, with all of the obvious majority picks that won today the largest streak coming out is only 23 with a 20 win streak and 48 wins overall being the new target for the Streak 7. Crap, ah well, on to the picks.

1) Jacksonville State vs. Alabama – 6 runs or more
2) Dijon FCO @ SC Amiens – SC Amiens win
3) New York Mets @ Boston Red Sox – Boston
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ Florida Marlins – Florida
5) Detroit Red Wings @ Chicago Blackhawks – Chicago
6) Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox – Pittsburgh
7) Hedo Turkoglu vs. Mo Williams – Turkoglu pts.
8) Richard Gutierrez vs. Antwone Smith – Smith wins
9) San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners – Seattle
10) Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers – L.A. Angels

Analysis
2) Dijon FCO visit Stade de la Licorne (Stadium of the Unicorn) to take on SC Amiens who are currently 4 points clear of safety with two matches remaining in the season.

SC Amiens seek their place in Ligue 2

Dijon FCO have injuries to worry about, but no pressure to win.

Amiens could clinch their spot in Ligue 2 with a win today, and with an away match at Boulogne to finish the season they can ill-afford to come away with a single point. Dijon FCO have cemented their position in Ligue 2 and since have lost two straight by a score of 5-1, away at Troyes and home against Angers. One can see they also lost a recent away match at Nimes who are currently in last place in Ligue 2. Amiens have also had difficulties with trying to cement their position in Ligue 2, having been unable to win a home match outright since a 2-0 defeat of 2^nd place Montpellier. One of their biggest problems has been holding out on defense through the entire 90 minutes, having been up 3-1 against Guingamp before conceding late goals. Indeed, Amiens led 1-0 at Dijon into the 89^th minute before two late goals gave Dijon the victory in that match.

Recent Form - SC Amiens
Home	Away	Result	GD
Amiens	Guingamp	3 - 3	-4
Ameins	Tours	0 - 0	-10
Amiens	Angers	1 - 1	-5
GD: Opponents goal differential in away matches

Recent Form - Dijon FCO
Home	Away	Result	GD
Troyes	Dijon	2 - 1	+4
Nimes	Dijon	2 - 1	+1
Brest	Dijon	1 - 2	+3
GD: Opponents goal differential in home matches

Going into this match Amiens are able to field their strongest side while Dijon FCO face a couple of concerns with defenders Stephane Morisot and Desire Periatambee out, and second leading goal scorer Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang tied up with their amateur team. Dijon will still be dangerous on the attack with Carrière and Ribas available to start but these injuries and Amiens' motivation for safety have been enough to move the opening lines on this match greatly in favor of Amiens and I am inclined to agree. Amiens have shown some skill this season and it has been late lapses in play that have cost them a higher position in Ligue 2. As long as Amiens stay focused they should be able to come away with a 2-1 home victory and a place in Ligue 2 next season.

3) When the New York Mets visit Fenway Park for their fist interleague game of the season the storyline of the night will be Daisuke Matsuzaka, coming off the disabled list and a stint in the minor leagues, facing off against Johan Santana, the best pitcher in the league today. New York will hope to end a streak of poor hitting which has seen them lose 4 straight, while batting .229 and slugging .286 in their last three games. Fortunately they will have Johan Santana on the mound. Santana has a 1-3 record in his career at Fenway with a 6.89 ERA, but he has been pitching better than he ever has in his career with a 1.36 ERA and 1.04 through 8 starts, so hopes are high for a quality start from the Venezuelan ace tonight. Santana is coming off a rocky start against the Giants in which he pitched 7 strong innings, striking out 7 and walking zero batters, but still gave up 4 earned runs off of 11 hits. It was a rare game in which the Mets provided sufficient run support and New York won 9-6.

Matsuzaka's health will be paramount for Boston's success.

Santana will have his work cut out for him as the Red Sox are coming off a sweep of division leaders Toronto, batting .296 and slugging .589 in the series. New York will have to hope the small size of Fenway Park and the potential rustiness of Matsuzaka play in their favor in rediscovering their offensive prowess. The Mets will plan on rotating Wright, Beltran, and Sheffield at the designated hitter position, with Sheffield being the only one of the three to ever have taken an at bat against Matsuzaka. In fact, only two Mets have faced Matsuzaka, with Reed being the other. Sheffield has gone 6 for 11 against the Japanese right-hander, with 1 HR and 2 doubles. The Mets hope Sheffield can play tonight, probably in the designated hitter position, after he missed the series with the Dodgers with an illness.

Boston's hopes will focus on Daisuke Matsuzaka being fully healthy, after having pitched 11²/₃ innings over 3 games for the Pawtucket Sox after two atrocious outings where he recorded a 12.79 ERA and 3.00 WHIP forced him onto the disabled list. The Red Sox will need to get a solid 6 innings out of Matsuzaka, giving up no more than 4 runs against a Mets team sure to rebound at least somewhat offensively. If Santana can shutout Boston's offense, a tall order, they will have a great chance of winning this game, but if he gives up even 2 runs it will take a monumental effort from the Mets' bats to avoid losing a lead late in the game.

6) The Pittsburgh Penguins begin their interleague play against a team who absolutely demolished them last season, the Chicago White Sox. In that series the White Sox were struggling, much like this year. The visit to U.S. Cellular Field reversed the fortunes of the two teams as the Pirates were destroyed, giving up 10 home runs to the Sox in a supposed pitchers' park.

Can Duke help the Pirates reverse their fortunes at The Cell?

The Pirates were outscored 37-15 during the game sweep. Fortunately, the Pirates will have Zach Duke, who has given up only 3 home runs in 57 innings, pitching this time around. Duke is having a great season thus far, with a 2.84 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He struggled a bit in his last game, and the fielding behind him didn't help as he gave up 4 ER off of 6 H in 7 innings. In his next previous start, against Colorado, he pitched 8 innings and gave up 1 earned run off of 4 hits while striking out 5 and walking 1 batter. Impressively, Duke has given up only 10 earned runs in his last 4 starts combined. Duke doesn't strike out too many, but he rarely walks batters as well, specializing in ground outs. Another difference this season is that the Pirates have Craig Monroe and Eric Hinske available as designated hitters, each of whom have played the position in the American League in past seasons. Monroe, who has batted .231, with 13 HR and 46 RBIs in 84 games as a DH and has done well this season as a sometimes starter and pinch hitter, will most likely get the start against the left-handed Gavin Floyd. Pittsburgh has been a tad anemic at the plate with a .226 batting average and .349 slugging average in their last 3 games, but overall have been better than Chicago in batting and slugging despite the White Sox hitting 13 more home runs in 1 fewer game.

Chicago has been down of late, going 3-7 in their last 10 games and losing their last game 20-1 against Minnesota yesterday. Part of the reason for that run of losses was the absence of sluggers like Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, and Carlos Quentin. With Thome and Dye in the lineup the White Sox batted .232 and had a .411 slugging average which helped them collect two victories against the Twins. The White Sox hope Carlos Quentin's return to the starting lineup at 3rd base will further strengthen their power hitting. Chicago looks to continue their success against Pittsburgh at U.S. Cellular Field where they have gone 7-2 against the Bucs. At the other end of their lineup the White Sox will start Gavin Floyd. Floyd has been struggling this season with only 2 quality starts in 8 games. He's been downright bad for the past month or so. In his last three games he has lasted 5 innings in each, giving up a combined 20 earned runs off of 24 hits and walking nearly as many batters as he's struck out. I expect he'll be able to settle down a bit and have at least a decent outing, going for 6 innings. If he gives up 4 runs or less it would be considered a success for him. Overall, I think the Pirates are primed to have a good game at the plate and Duke should do well to limit Chicago's long hits. Gavin Floyd will probably pitch better in terms of strikeouts and walks, but I think he will still put men on base and give up more than a few runs off of singles and doubles. I like Pittsburgh to take an early lead and hold on to it in this game, reversing their fortunes at 'The Cell'.

Mo Williams had a 43 point game at home earlier in the season.

7) Looking at the graph above it's clear both Mo Williams and Hedo Turkoglu can put up big numbers, or suffer through poor shooting to post 12 or less. Williams has scored 17 or more points in 55.6% of his home games this season, including the playoffs while Turkoglu has scored 17 or more in only 42.6% of his road games. In four games facing one another Williams is averaging 15.0 points per game and Turkoglu is averaging 15.8 points, holding a slight edge due to his consistency in those games. Williams has scored 10, 12, 17, and 21 points against the Magic and it's those low point totals that have me favoring Turkoglu in this matchup. After shooting so well in Game 1 the Magic might be expected to struggle more as Cleveland makes defensive adjustments, but I think those adjustments will provide Turkoglu with more chances and he will take more than 11 shots in this game. Both players should be able to get open shots so it will come down to who is in the zone moreso.

10) Tonight's game between the Angels and the Dodgers has got to be a lot of fun for the city of Los Angeles, I imagine. This should be an incredibly close matchup, featuring two very good ballclubs with two very good pitchers on the mound.

Budding ace Clayton Kershaw faces the Angels for the first time.

Jered Weaver has recorded a 2.59 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 8 starts this season and is coming off a quality game at Rangers Stadium, though the Angels could not overcome Feldman and the Rangers bullpen in a 3-0 loss. Over his 3 year career the Dodgers have taken 86 at bats against Weaver, batting .209 and slugging an abysmal .244, an incredible feat considering the number of pop flies Weaver tends to give up. The Dodgers come into this game having swept the New York Mets despite putting up numbers not much better than those posted against Weaver. Their pitching has been key to their success, and errors by the Mets certainly did not hurt. Tonight the Dodgers will start sophomore Clayton Kershaw, who has a 4.60 ERA and 1.24 WHIP due mainly to a couple of bad outings, including a 10-4 loss to the Rockies on April 26^th in which Kershaw gave up 9 earned runs off 8 hits in only 4²/₃ innings. He has not faced the Angels before in his career so it will be interesting to see how he fares. The Angels have also been having their troubles hitting, though they have been able to drop a few beyond the fence which has helped. In their last game against Seattle they took a 3-0 victory behind three solo home runs. I give the advantage to the Angels in this game with Weaver having a proven track record against the Dodgers, with Manny Ramirez even, and with Kershaw being an unknown. He could potentially have another outing like he did against Colorado. With the two teams having comparable offensive numbers and the Angels' bullpen starting to get it together I would favor them to win, although this is an incredibly close matchup with the arguments against picking the Dodgers a bit lacking.

May 21st, 2009 Picks

Ahhh, 1-0-0 again today after Florida and Arizona combined for 3 runs in the first four innings of their game. Dough Davis had a real hard time with the first 5 or 6 batters in the Marlins' order, but was able to retire 7 through 9 easily. The result was Davis giving up 2 runs in the first and 1 run in the third. Fortunately, after walking in the run in the 3^rd Davis was able to retire Paulino to end the inning. Volstad did his job just fine, putting only 1 Diamondback on base in the first 4 innings. So it's an insane stunt prop day with 25 offerings on the board. I'll try to offer up some quality previews starting with overviews of the pertinent holes at TPC Four Seasons. Enjoy, good luck, and on to the picks!

1) Bo Van Pelt’s Score On #1: Par vs. Any Other Score – Par
2) Who Scores The First Runs: Bangalore Royal Challengers vs. Hyderabad – Bangalore
3) David Toms’ Score On #7: Birdie vs. Any Other Score – Any other score
4) SV Josko Ried @ F.C. Kärnten – 1^st goal of 2^nd half scored in 65^th minute or earlier
5) A. Kim’s Score On #17: Ace, Birdie, or Par vs. Any Other Score – Ace, Birdie, or Par
6) Ryuji Imada’s Score On #10: Bogey vs. Any Other Score – Any other score
7) Charles Howell III’s Score On #13: Par vs. Any Other Score – Any other score
8) Phillies @ Reds – Combine for 4 or more total bases in 1st inning
9) Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers – No runs scored in 1st inning
10) Vijay Singh’s Score On #1: Birdie or Par vs. Any Other Score – Birdie or Par

11) J. Mauer’s 1^st Plate Appearance: Walk, Hit, Strikeout vs. Any Other Result – Walk, Hit, Strikeout

12) Will Z. Greinke Record A Strikeout In The First Inning: Yes or No – Yes
13) Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds – Score a run in the 7th inning
14) Fred Couples’ Score On #16: Eagle or Birdie vs. Any Other Score – Eagle or Birdie
15) Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays – No A's hits in the 1^st inning

16) E. Longoria’s 1^st Plate Appearance: Walk, Hit, Strikeout vs. Any Other Result – Any Other Result

17) Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox – 0 or 1 hit in the 8^th inning
18) Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals – No extra base hits after 7^th inning
19) Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays – At least 1 run scored in the 4^th inning
20) Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays - 2 or more batters strikeout in the 8^th inning
21) Washington @ Long Island – 9 goals or more scored in the 1^st quarter
22) Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees - Yes, a home run hit in the first 2 innings
23) Carolina Hurricanes @ Pittsburgh Penguins – 2 goals or fewer scored in 1^st period
24) Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox - 2 hits or fewer in 3rd inning
25) Ohio State vs. Georgia – 0 runs scored in the 5^th inning
26) A. Pujols' 1^st Plate Appearance: Hit or Walk vs. Any Other Result - Any other result
27) Hurricanes @ Penguins – Carolina has more shots on goal in the 3^rd period
28) Carmelo Anthony vs. Kobe Bryant – Bryant 1^st quarter pts.
29) Arizona vs. Stanford – Stanford lead after 3 innings
30) Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners - 0 extra-base hits in first 2 innings

Analysis
1) The EDS Byron Nelson Championship is being played this year at the TPC Four Seasons golf course for all four rounds of the tournament for the second year in a row. Prior to 2008 participants would play the Cottonwood Valley Course for one of the first two rounds, and the TPC course for the final two rounds. Last year

Back

Bo Van Pelt hit par on the first hole in three rounds and had a birdie in the other round. This year the hole has been lengthened and the green moved to increase it's difficulty. Van Pelt will likely hit par without any serious hazards to negotiate, but a poorly placed approach could still lead to bogey here.

3) David Toms is having a good year on the Tour, having made over $1 million in his first 11 events. He's doing well statistically also, with a 3.88 birdie average and his 69.69 scoring average being good enough for 2^nd on the Tour. Still, it's beeen a while since Toms has played in the Byron Nelson Championship, 2004 being most recent.

David Toms' Scores On #7 (Par 5)
Year
2004	5
2003	5	4	5
2002	4	5	4
2001	3	5	5

Althought #7 has been the easiest hole on the course in terms of average score to par over the years one can see that a birdie has been elusive for Toms.



5) Anthony Kim is also having a nice year on the Tour with $800,000 in his pocket from 9 events. Hole #17 is considered one of the top 5 most difficult holes on the course, but Kim is averaging over 4 birdies per round, so a par seems well within his reach. Last year he hit par three times and birdied once on #17.

6) Ryuji Imada has played in this event for the past 4 years and has done quite well. The table to below shows his scores on TPC Four Seasons in those years. Hole #10 was one of the easiest last year so a par or better seems very likely.

Ryuji Imada's Scores On #10 (Par 4)
Year
2008	4	4
2007	3	4	5
2006	4	4	4
2005	5	4	3

7) This par 3 has a difficult looking green, so I can see Charles Howell III either placing his tee shot close enough for a birdie, or being forced to three putt for a bogey, assuming he hits onto the green in the first place, though he did hit par on the hole in all 5 rounds he played at TPC Four Seasons from 2005 to 2007.

8) The Detroit Tigers host the Texas Rangers in a rematch of a game they played April 12th where Kevin Millwood pitched against Edwin Jackson. In that game Jackson gave up a 2 run Josh Hamilton home run in the first inning and the Tigers went on to win 6-4. Jackson has given up only 4 home runs in 52 innings while Millwood has given up 7 homers in 58¹/₃ innings. Texas are batting .165 and slugging .286 in their last three games, the previous two being against Detroit. They have not scored in the 1^st inning in any of those games and have scored in the 1^st in 2 of their last 10 games. In their last 3 games the Tigers are batting .330 and slugging .580 but have still only scored in the 1^st inning in one of those games and in only 2 of their last 10. With the pitchers being as good as they are no scoring seems safest, but with Detroit and Texas each having powerful offenses it would be no surprise for one team, or both even, to score.

11) Joe Mauer started off the season on the disabled list but has made a fine comeback in the 18 games he's played since then with a .397 batting average and a .284 KWAP (strikeouts + walks per plate appearance). Together that means 61.7% of his plate appearances end with a hit, a strikeout, or a walk.

Results of Joe Mauer's 1st Plate Apperance
Opposing pitcher	Result
Danks	SO
Buehrle	SO
Pettite	single
Burnett	ground out
Chamberlain	ground out
Hughes	ground out
Verlander	single
Willis	fielder's choice
Galarraga	flied out
Bedard	single
Hernandez	double
Jakubauskas	ground out
Bergesen	single
Porcello	SO
Jackson	SO
Soria	single
Bannister	single
Ponson	home run

From this table one can see Mauer has not walked in his first at bat so far this season and has struck out or hit in 12 of 18 games. Mauer has 3 at bats against Bartolo Colon and hit twice and struck out once. Colon has a 1.00 ground ball to fly ball ratio, however, so Mauer grounding out seems likely enough to make this a risky proposition.

12) Zach Greinke has been the best pitcher in the major leagues this season, allowing 4 earned runs off of 40 hits in 60 innings pitched this season. He averages 9.75 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched, or a little over one per inning. The top of the Cleveland Indians' batting order is expected to be Sizemore, Martinez, and Cabrera again. In their careers against Greinke they have been KAPped (K per plate appearance) at a rate of .124, which is obviously very low. The three Indians have a combined batting average of .338, however, which means if they are walked or get a hit it will bring up batters lower in the order. I think the career numbers for the Indians against Greinke are a bit misleading as well, with Greinke never pitching this well in the past. Barring a base hit followed by a double play I think there is a very good chance Greinke records at least one strikeout in the first inning.

14) Fred Couples is having a decent year so far, with $600,000 netted from 9 events played. He does not have much recent experience on the TPC course at Four Rivers, having played one round in this event in 2006 and three rounds in 2001. In those four rounds he birdied #16 twice and hit par twice. The par 5 has been the easiest hole, in terms of average score to par, on the course over the past 23 years, and Couples' 4.11 birdie average is 9^th best on the Tour this year. So far 8 of 17 players through 16 have hit birdie or eagle on #16, and that includes the players destined to miss the cut. As of right now Couples has not teed off, so it might be best to check out his progress before selecting this prop.

15) Matt Garza is having a pretty good year with Tampa Bay, posting a 4-2 record in 8 starts to go along with his 3.50 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.

Garza's hits against and Oakland's hits in the 1st
Garza's Hits Against	Opponent	Oakland's Hits	Opposing Pitcher
1	@Boston	2	Hochevar
2	N.Y. Yankees	0	Bannister
0	Chicago White Sox	2	Jackson
0	@Oakland	0	Porcello
0	Boston	4	Galarraga
1	Baltimore	2	Niemann
0	@Boston	1	Shields
0	Cleveland	1	Kazmir
Most recent results are at the bottom

Only 61% of that low WHIP comes from hits with 36 hits in 54 innings pitched, which averages to two hits given up for every three innings pitched. Oakland's batting order has a lifetime batting average of .171, so they hit off of Garza less often than the average opponent Garza faces. From the table one sees Garza limited Oakland to zero hits in a game earlier this season and that Oakland has been hitting well in the first in their past 4 games. I think Oakland is due to have a tough first inning and Garza will do well to limit their hits.

16) American League Rookie of the Year, Evan Longoria, is looking to make a regular appearance at the All-Star game during his career.

Longoria's Most Recent 1st Plate Apperances
Opposing pitcher	Result
Beckett	popped out
Hendrickson	lined out
Bergesen	ground out
Carmona	single
Reyes	SO
Pavano	SO
Aquino	BB
Gallagher	single
Outman	ground out
Most recent results are at the bottom

He's started off this season with a .331 batting average and .650 slugging average. He has a KWAP of .323 meaning he's walked, hit, or struck out in 62.4% of his plate appearances this season. From the table on the right one can see Longoria has gotten out with the ball in play 4 times in his last 10 games. Longoria has 5 plate appearances against Dallas Braden, failing to hit, walk, or strikeout in 2 of them. Braden has walked, struck out, or been hit by 102 of the 210 batter's he's faced. Longoria flied out in his first plate appearance in a game earlier against Oakland with Braden pitching so I can see something like that happening again. I think Braden is too skilled to walk Longoria, he's walked only 14 batters this year, and Longoria is too skilled to be struck out by Braden. That leaves Longoria to get a hit, and batting .200 against Braden in 5 at bats I have to favor any other result.

17) This game is in the bottom of the 7^th inning and the Twins currently have 20 hits to 4 hits for the White Sox. The table to the left shows the White Sox's and Indians' reliever's hits per inning pitched (HIP). Only relievers with 10 or more innings pitched, i.e.in the regular rotation, are included. Keep in mind that Nick Blackburn may well pitch through the 8^th inning with 65 pitches getting him through 5.

Bullpen HIP for CWS and CLE
White Sox	HIP	Cleveland	HIP
Dotel	0.59	Mijares	0.75
Linebrink	1.00	Nathan	0.75
Thornton	0.89	Dickey	1.33
Jenks	0.86	Guerrier	0.66
Carrasco	1.22	Ayala	1.28
Richard	1.38	Breslow	0.77
Broadway (CWS) out, Crain (CLE): 0.92

One can see that Dotel and Guerrier lead their teams with the lowest HIP. There probably won't be a chance to see which reliever will be pitching before the prop locks, but at least one can get a good idea of their chances. With the way Minnesota has been hitting the ball Chicago will need Dotel to limit them to 0 or 1 hit, while Cleveland could probably get away with anyone against the White Sox today. It looks like it will be the bottom 3 batters of the order that will be up in the 8^th for the White Sox, but the top of the order will be up for Minnesota though with a 20 run lead they may pinch hit. I favor 0 or 1 hit in the inning but only because I see Chicago playing Dotel.

22) Adam Eaton and the Baltimore Orioles take on Joba Chamberlain and the New York Yankees at the new Yankee Stadium. Most anyone who has followed baseball this season is aware of the penchants the ballpark has for home runs, especially out towards right field. Eaton and Chamberlain are both right handed pitchers, a favorable situation for left handed batters already predisposed to hitting out to right field.

Home Run Stats For Eaton and Chamberlain
	Eaton	Chamberlain
Home Runs per 2IP ('09)	0.39	0.25
Batters Faced per HR ('09)	36	24
BF/HR vs. Opponent (Career)	11	69

If both pitchers do their job they would only face 6 batters, and by definition would not have given up a home run. Chamberlain doesn't seem likely to give up a home run to the Orioles in any case. If Eaton puts men on base, however, he could see 11 batters in 2 innings. I would favor either pitcher giving up a home run early at Yankee Stadium here with the Orioles having 5 players who can bat left handed in the lineup today and the Yankees with 6.

23)	2 of Pittsburgh's 14 playoff games and 2 of Carolina's 15 have had 3 or more goals scored in the 1st period.

27) During these playoffs the Carolina Hurricanes have taken an average of 10.6 shots on goal per period and allowed an 10.5 per period. The Pittsburgh Penguins have taken 11.6 shots on goal and allowed 9.5 on average. Generally, when a team is behind they will take more shots on goal to make up for that so the best pick here would be to take whoever is behind going into the 3^rd period. If the game is tied then I would take Pittsburgh, but I have a feeling Carolina will be trailing after 2.

30) Erik Bedard and Joe Saunders face off at Safeco Field and we look to see if either team can be expected to make an extra base hit in the first two innings. Saunders already has one game under his belt allowing zero extra base hits in 2 innings at Safeco Field. Bedard did the same to the Angels at Angel Stadium. Obviously one hit could end this but I think Bedard and Saunders can retire 6 to 9 batters without giving up anything more than a single.

Pitcher vs. Batter Stats
	Saunders/LAA	Bedard/SEA
Total Bases/Hit	1.38	1.40
Hits/IP	1.83	1.86
Bats Faced/Hit	16	15

May 20th, 2009 Picks

1-0-0 today as I brought my streak to 7 with the Los Angeles Angels' hits off of Felix Hernandez. The Angels had three singles, by Figgins, Abreu, and Hunter before Hernandez got his first strikeout. King Felix trailed by only 1 after the 2^nd inning, with 4 hits given up. Things started to get away from Hernandez in the 3^rd inning as he gave up two more hits without striking any batters out. In fact, Hernandez never got his fourth strike out as he gave up 1 hit in the 4^th, and 2 hits in both the 5^th and 6^th innings. The Angels had gotten 11 hits off of Hernandez and were leading 6-4 at that point. Los Angeles held on to win 6-5 and hand Hernandez his third loss of the season. And so, on to some fucking picks.

1) Chennai Super Kings vs. Kings XI Punjab – 299 runs or fewer
2) Werder Bremen vs. Shakhtar Donetsk – Shakhtar Donetsk
3) Arizona Diamondbacks @ Florida Marlins – 4 runs or fewer by the 5^th inning
4) Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals – Pittsburgh
5) Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox – Toronto
6) Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals – Kansas City
7) Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox – Chicago
8) Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals – St. Louis
9) Cleveland Cavaliers win margin vs. Rashard Lewis FG made – Cleveland win margin
10) San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres – San Diego leads after 4 innings
11) David Wright vs. Rafael Furcal – Furcal records more total bases

Analysis
1) A spot in the top four will be up for grabs when Chennai Super Kings battle Kings XI Punjab at Centurion Park with either team able to clinch a spot in the semi-finals with a victory.

Kings XI Punjab will try to survive Hayden's onslaught.

Can Chennai Super Kings figure out their bowling woes in time to clinch a semi-final spot?

As always there is a terrific preview of the match from CricInfo. Both teams are in decent form, going 3-2 in their last 5 matches. Chennai's most recent match, against Kolkata Knight Riders, saw 377 runs being scored as Kolkata successfully chased 188 runs by Chennai in the first innings. Captain M. Dhoni called it one of the worst bowling performances all year in the Indian Premier. Chennai won the match previous to the Kolkata debacle, chasing Mumbai Indians' 147 runs successfully by scoring 151 with only 3 wickets against them. Kings XI Punjab are coming off a nail-biting victory over Deccan Chargers, winning by 1 run, 134/7 to 133/8, as they successfully fended of Deccan. They also picked up an impressive victory over Delhi Daredevils by 5 wickets, 123/4 to 120/9. Altogether Kings XI Punjab have collected 17 wickets from their previous two matches. They will need to do that well against Chennai to defeat the Super Kings for the first time ever in the Indian Premier. With orange cap leader Matthew Hayden near the top of the order a few early wickets would greatly boost Kings XI's chances. Their first match of the tournament saw 357 runs being scored as Hayden went ballistic, scoring 89 runs off 58 balls for a strike rate of 153.45! Punjab nearly won the match anyways but for the death bowling of Surresh Raina. He was not up to the task against Kolkata, however, which is a concern for the Super Kings. Punjab's bowlers will still have a difficult task in any case as Chennai's batsmen are all in prime form. These two teams have seen 300 or more runs scored in three of the four matches they have played. All three times the Super Kings batted first, and the one match which saw only 228 runs scored had Kings XI batting first with Chennai completing the chase with 31 balls remaining. For this match purple cap hopeful, Yusuf Abdulla, should get the start in favor of Brett Lee, but whoever starts the Punjabi will have strong bowlers. It should be a great match with the most in-form bowling side facing the most in-form batting side. I think it will be the falling of wickets that will decide if this match goes over 300 runs or under. If Chennai bowl as they did against Kolkata then Kings XI will surely score over 150 runs, but if Kings XI can get batsmen such as Hayden and Dhoni out before they reach their half-centuries the match will surely go under 300.

2) After 37 years the final champion of the UEFA Cup will be crowned before the newly minted Europa League debuts next season. SV Werder Bremen will take on Shakhtar Donetsk FC at Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium for a knockout final to determine the champion. Should the score be tied after 90 minutes there will be two 15 minute halves added on, and a penalty shootout to determine a winner if the score remains tied after the extra time. Both clubs entered the UEFA Cup in the third knockout round thanks to their finishing third in their respective Champions League groups. A detailed summary of their roads to Istanbul can be found here. Werder Bremen will be unable to field their strongest side with star striker Diego and forward Hugo Almeida suspended, and defender Per Mertesacker to miss with injury. Fortunately, Nando, Rosenberg, and Pizarro have all returned to training and will likely figure in the final. In the pre-match press conference Shakhtar Donetsk manager Mircea Lucescu emphasized that the injuries and suspensions are not important with the quality and depth of both clubs, though he would like to see Diego play. When asked how he would solve the task of winning the final Lucescu said:

"I am sure that tomorrow we shall see a very interesting match between two teams representing different styles. Werder are playing attacking football. They have physical presence. Shakhtar’s style is based on individual skills."

A couple of previews give some perspective for the match, one being from Soccer Lens. They highlight Shakhtar Donetsk's excellent form domestically, winning their past 6 matches, and in the UEFA Cup in which they defeated Tottenham Hotspur, CSKA Moscow, Olympique Marseille, and Dynamo Kiev by a combined score of 12 to 4.

Will it be Shakhtar Donetsk or Werder Bremen hoisting the trophy today?

Another nice preview can be found atgoal.com. They point out Shakhtar Donetsk are the healthier side, with only Tomas Hübschman to miss. Both previews predict a 2-1 win for Shakhtar Donetsk despite most sports books very slightly favoring Werder Bremen to be the first German side to win a European competition in 8 years. Part of the reason for this is the German Bundesliga being highly regarded with respect to the Ukrainian Premier League and the fact a Ukrainian club has never won a UEFA Cup or Champions League trophy. I think Shakhtar Donetsk will prove to be the more disciplined side, and with a strong defense will be able to clear most balls before Pizarro, Rosenberg, and Hunt can cause too much danger. The key for Werder Bremen in this match, in my mind, is the play of their backfield and keeper Tim Wiese. Shakhtar Donetsk's Brazilian attack will be on target with shots conceded to them inside the box, so they will have to do well on clearance. On top of that players like Ilsinho and Jadson have the skill to be on target from distance. Wiese will have to be at his very best to deny those opportunities. Overall I think Shakhtar Donetsk will prove to be the more disciplined side and that will make the difference in a 3-2 win in extra time for the Ukrainians.

4) The Washington Nationals are hoping to snap a 6 game losing streak tonight when they host the Pittsburgh Pirates who are the winners of 4 straight. Washington will look to John Lannan and their strong offense to deliver. Lannan has a 4.00 ERA and 1.47 WHIP through 8 starts this season, fairly respectable numbers. They only tell half of the story, however, which is that only half of Lannan's starts would qualify as quality starts. Part of the reason for the lack of quality starts is that he has yet to throw over 100 pitches, limiting how far he can go in a game. He has a good ground out to fly out ratio, but he has some control issues, yielding 7 home runs in his 8 starts. The Pirates have been batting .305 and slugging .500 in their last three games, and have a lifetime batting average of .269 against Lannan. I think they may start to average out, but with the number of poor starts under Lannan's belt Pittsburgh's batting may not drop off much at all. To help ensure they do keep hitting the Pirates are likely to startCraig Monroe against the left-hander Lannan. Wahington's bullpen has been atrocious this season, giving up countless leads the Nationals have earned. With a combined ERA of 6.68 and WHIP of 1.79, they have been very unlucky with the sheer number of runs given up and the Nationals' fielders have not helped. Unfortunately for Washington they will have to do without their starting center fielder, Elijah Dukes. The Nationals lost Dukes in the series against Philadelphia, and have designated infielder Alex Cintron and called up outfielder Justin Maxwell to help patch up the position. Washington also called up reliever Jason Bergmann to hopefully bolster their bullpen. Bergmann has pitched in 12 games for AAA Syracuse giving up 11 earned runs for a 1.12 ERA and 1.13 WHIP so he may be able to help some time soon, but not in today's game. If Pittsburgh can get a few hits, hit some foul balls, and generally work the count against Lannan they should see the Nationals' bullpen for 3 or 4 innings. The Nationals will probably need to build a large lead by the 6th inning, and they could do it. I would bet on Washington's offense to score runs over Pittsburgh's on any given day. Paul Maholm, who will be starting for the Pirates, should keep Pittsburgh in the game, even in that scenario. Maholm is coming off a terrific start against Colorado in which he pitched 7 shutout innings, giving up only 5 hits. Although Maholm has not pitched well at Nationals Park in the past I think he will be able to keep Pittsburgh within striking distance, say within 3 runs. Overall I can see Washington winning this game, with Maholm struggling a bit and Lannan pitching well against a Pirates team whose offense has been known to suddenly disappear, but I think it's more likely Lannan is the one who is off and the Pirates come from behind to win a close game.

6) The Cleveland Indians, losers of four straight, are another team looking to discard their losing ways as they continue their visit to Kauffman Stadium. It won't be easy however, as the Royals have one of the best pitching staffs in the majors, though Gil Meche has been struggling lately. Meche's struggles started against Toronto in Kansas City when the Blue Jays bombed him for 7 hits and 5 earned runs. Meche walked 5 batters, only striking out 2. He then suffered through two mediocre starts on the road before another poor outing at home, this time against Baltimore. Meche lasted only 4¹/₃ innings, giving up 5 earned runs off of 6 hits, and striking out only 1 batter. He's disappointed, saying:

"It's pretty much mostly because of my back and all the things going on. So hopefully Wednesday will be a different story and we'll turn the corner."

His back supposedly feels fine today, but one has to wonder about 'all the things going on.' Cleveland have only batted .230 with a slugging average of .390 in their last three games but have a slugging average over .450 against Meche in 254 at bats, so I think they should hit fairly well. If Meche has not regained his form the Royals will be looking at overcoming 5 or 6 runs instead of just 2 or 3. Fortunately, Kansas City has been batting well themselves and will be facing Fausto Carmona, against whom they have a .343 batting average and .496 slugging average in 137 at bats. Carmona has been consistently average in his starts for the most part. He has a 5.70 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in 47¹/₃ innings this season. In his last two starts he's pitched 12 innings, giving up 6 earned runs off of 8 hits. One problem for him has been walking batters onto base. In those two starts he walked 9 batters while striking out only 6, and he has a K/BB ratio of 1.0 all season. I think the Royals only win as long as Meche has a decent outing, keeping the Royals close, or allowing them to take a lead if Carmona has a poor outing. The Royals' bullpen can be counted on to hold a lead, but as in yesterday's game where the Royals scored 4 runs in the 9th inning to win, the Indians bullpen cannot.

8) The St. Louis Cardinals will try to win two games in a row for the first time since the beginning of May, when they won two against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates. Helping them in their cause will be 2005 Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter, who will get his first start since injuring himself in a game against Arizona while batting after pitching 3 scoreless innings. He pitched another 7 scoreless innings in his first start, against Pittsburgh, allowing only 1 hit and striking out 7. Ryan Dempster will take the mound for the Chicago Cubs with two starts against St. Louis already under his belt. One game was at Wrigley Field which the Cubs won, and one was at Busch Stadium which the Cubs lost. Dempster pitched 6 innings in both giving up 4 runs at Wrigley and 3 runs at Busch Stadium. Dempster has been alternating between quality starts and decent starts, and is coming off a quality start against San Diego.

Another home run by Albert Pujols would catapult St. Louis' chances of winning.

Prior to that he had a decent start, giving up 4 earned runs in 6 innings at Milwaukee, a game which the Cubs eventually lost 12-6. The Cardinals have continued their futility at the plate without Ryan Ludwick and Ricky Ankiel out of the lineup. Their batting average has sunk all the way to .179 and their slugging average to .305 for their last three games. Ricky Ankiel could return from a bruised right shoulder which might bolster their offense, but will probably help the outfield more than anything as Ankiel is batting .100 with one single against Dempster in 10 at bats. With Dempster pitching away from Wrigley, and potentially due for a mediocre outing, the Cardinals can only hope they figure out how to swing those bats the way they started the season. The Cubs, meanwhile, have also been struggling with their bats, though it may be expected considering the number of injuries they have had to deal with. If Carpenter is still in form after hurting his rib cage the Cubs will certainly struggle to generate offense and it will then be up to Pujols, Duncan, Rasmus, and Molina to deliver Carpenter the win. I think Carpenter will probably give up a couple of runs, and the Cardinals will hit better than they have been, but still not well enough to give themselves a large lead. The bullpens may only see two innings of play, but that would be long enough for either to give up a small lead. Overall, either team has a good chance of winning this game, but I favor the Cardinals with Carpenter pitching at home.

11) The New York Mets try to avoid a three game sweep at the hands of the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight after losing the first game due to costly errors. Starting for New York will be Livan Hernandez, who carries a 5.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP into the game. Opposite Hernandez will be Jeff Weaver, filling in for the scratched Stults. It will be Weaver's third start of the season. Weaver's WHIP is not much better than Hernandez's at 1.44, the difference being Weaver's WHIP consists of 70% hits and 30% walks, while Hernandez's WHIP is made up of 80% hits and 20% walks. Being walked does not count as an at bat, and obviously, precludes a player from getting a hit in that plate appearance.

Tonight, we're most interested in the number of total bases recorded by David Wright of the Mets and Rafael Furcal of the Dodgers. Thus far this season Wright has been the superior batter, with a .361 batting average and a .544 slugging average compared to Furcal's .239 batting average and .296 slugging average. Unlike last season where each player averaged an identical 2.1 total bases per game

David Wright is currently hitting on base in over 80% of games he's played. Click on the image for a closer view.

Furcal is only averaging 1.3 total bases per game so far this season. Looking at the chart it's apparent Wright's numbers are greater because of his lack of games with zero hits and the larger number of games with 4 or more hits. The lower chart shows the proportion of each players' games with a specific number of total bases. One can see

that each player went 'oh-fer' at about the same rate, with Wright having more games with 1 or 8 total bases, and Furcal having more games with 2 or 3 total bases. Wright is currently on an 11 game hit streak and might be expected to have a game with zero hits, the caveat being that Wright is 26 years old and likely to have the best season of his career this year or next. Furcal has been dealing with injuries all season and is by no means due to have a huge game batting. Of the two pitchers Hernandez gives up home runs at nearly twice the rate Weaver does, with the bullpens being equal so if there is a home run hit it would most likely be by Furcal, or one of the other Dodgers. Unless Furcal does hit a home run I think this will end up being a very close contest. I have to give the edge to Furcal with Hernandez giving up more hits of the starting pitchers, with Hernandez being more homer prone, and with the prospect of Wright maintaining over 80% of his games played with a hit being highly unlikely.

May 19th, 2009 Picks

1-0-0 again today and do I feel lucky to have gotten it. After I passed up on FC Nordsjælland and switched my pick to Carolina, meaning I wasn't confident in either pick, I settled on the L.A. Dodgers against the Mets. It looked good at first with the Dodgers picking up a couple of runs in the 1^st inning off of Redding. The Mets got a run back in the 2^nd, however, with a Wright double and a couple of sacrifice hits to advance the run in. Then, something I did not expect, Redding took on Wolf straight up in the pitchers duel. For the next 5 innings each pitcher did well with Wolf giving up 3 hits and Redding giving up 1. In the top of the 8^th Wolf gave up a double to Angel Pagan and was relieved after retiring the next two batters.

Wade gave up an RBI single to Sheffield immediately after and the Mets tied the game 2-2. J.J. Putz was brought in and nearly gave up a run with runners on first and third with two outs, but induced a ground out from pinch hitter Loretta. The Dodgers brought in Broxton for the top of the 9^th with the idea of ending the game at the bottom of the inning. Broxton did his job, but the Dodgers brought in a pinch hitter for him to lead off the ninth and Paul ground out. Feliciano was brought in with runners on first and third again with two outs and he caused Ethier to ground out to send the game into extra innings.

Troncoso was brought in for the Dodgers, and he retired his first two batters before giving up a single and walking the next. Fortunately, Tatis grounded out to third to end the Mets' turn in the 10^th. Brian Stokes made quick work of the Dodgers to extend the game for another inning. Troncoso remained in the game and repeated his patter, retiring two, and giving up a single. Angel Pagan then hit a deep triple but Ryan Church was called out when the umpires determined he had failed to step on third base as he ran past. Stokes started off the bottom of the 11^th by walking a batter, then a throwing error by Beltran allowed runners to reach first and second, and the Mets intentionally walked Pierre to load the baess. Furcal almost walked to end the game but ended up hitting a fly ball to get out. The Dodgers nearly blew another chance when Hudson hit into a routine double play but another error by the Mets allowed Loretta to score and end the game. *whew* And so on to the picks.

1) Southern California vs. Ohio State – Southern California
2) California vs. Duke – Duke
3) Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers – Detroit
4) Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox – Boston
5) Chicago Blackhawks @ Detroit Red Wings – 5 goals or fewer
6) Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros – Milwaukee
7) Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals – St. Louis
8) Which Team Gets No. 1 Pick: Kings or Wizards vs. Any Other Team – Any Other Team
9) Chauncey Billups ast. vs. Los Angeles Lakers win margin – Los Angeles win margin
10) San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres – San Diego
11) L. A. Angels hits off Hernandez vs. Felix Hernandez strikeouts – Angels hits off Hernandez

Analysis
4) The Boston Red Sox return to Fenway Park after a rough 6 game road trip that saw them drop 2 of 3 to both the Angels and the Mariners. In their series with the Mariners they batted a paltry .224, though they did slug .398 off of those hits to average 1.78 total bases per hit. They will be facing Brian Tallet when the Blue Jays visit today. Tallet has been a reliever for most of his career, and was pressed into a starting role after injuries struck Toronto's rotation. Tallet has done very well this season with only one truly awful outing, at Kansas City, where he gave up 10 earned runs on 11 hits in only 4 innings. Even with that on his record he has a 4.68 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, striking out nearly 7 batters per 9. He will face a stiff test against the Red Sox, who will be without Kevin Youkilis but will be returning David Ortiz and Julio Lugo to the lineup. Toronto should consider themselves fortunate if Tallet can get through 6 innings with only 2 or 3 runs conceded. Boston will be starting 42 year old Tim Wakefield on the mound tonight. Wakefield is coming off a poor outing against the Angels in which he lost a 4 run lead, giving up 7 earned runs without getting out of the 5^th inning. Wakefield has been very up and down this season, at one point throwing a 7 inning 1 hit gem followed by a 5 inning, 7 hit, 5 run game. Toronto has been batting well in their past three games, but no better than their season average. Against Wakefield they have batted .267 and slugged .409 in 247 at bats, and I think Wakefield will have an average game, meaning just a few runs given up to the Blue Jays. Overall I think Tallet is fortunate to have as low an ERA as he has, due to the number of batters he puts on base. As long as Wakefield has a quality start the Red Sox should be able to take a lead and hold on to it.

6) The Milwaukee Brewers are on a roll, winning their last 6 in a row and 8 of their last 10. Somehow they've found a way to win even when their bats are quiet, taking all three against the Cardinals and scoring 17 runs even though they only batted .183 and slugged .326 in the series. For their series against the Houston Astros the Brewers will have to do without second baseman Rickie Weeks, who suffered a season ending wrist injury while striking out in the first inning on Sunday against the Cardinals. Casey McGehee is expected to start against left-hander Mike Hampton today. McGehee is batting only .188 in 16 at bats this season, all singles. The Brewers still have plenty of power in their lineup, with Braun, Fielder, Hart, and Cameron all over .400 in slugging percentage. The Astros have some power in their lineup as well, with Lance Berkman improving, Hunter Pence showing promise, and the ever dangerous Carlos Lee. The Astros will have Mike Hampton on the mound to try and limit the Brewers. Hampton has a 5.31 ERA and 1.54 WHIP so far this season but has done very well in giving up only 4 home runs, and inducing more ground balls than fly balls this season. That doesn't bode well for the Brewers' power hitting, but it's unlikely Hampton could possibly shut down the Brewers any more than the Cardinals' pitchers did. In his last three starts he has pitched 15²/₃ innings and given up 19 hits for 13 earned runs while walking one more batter than he's struck out. If anything the Brewers will see a resurgence in hitting against Hampton, and with the number of batters he walks even singles could be deadly. The key for the Brewers will be Dave Bush limiting the Astros' improving bats. Bush has a 3.83 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, mainly due to his rarely walking a batter. Bush has had three straight quality starts, including a 5-3 win over Florida where he pitched for 7 innings, giving up 6 hits for 2 runs and striking out 7 batters and walking only 1. Overall, even if Hampton has a terrific start, it would take an abysmal one from Bush to give Houston a large lead. Even a four run lead with 3 innings to go would not be considered safe with Houston's bullpen giving up a home run every 6 innings pitched. If Milwaukee starts hitting well again, and I suspect they will, it should be a fairly easy victory.

7) The St. Louis Cardinals are hoping to get back on track when they return home to Busch Stadium after being swept in a 3 game series against the Milwaukee Brewers. They'll have to do so without the help of Ryan Ludwick or Rick Ankiel both of whom are still recuperating from minor injuries. That could spell trouble for the Cardinals, not only because of their skill with the bat, but also because Joel Piniero will be pitching. Piniero is quite possibly the league leader in putting balls in play, having walked only 7 batters in and struck out only 14 in 45¹/₃ innings pitched. Without two of their starting outfielders it could mean more hits for a Cubs team that is already batting .283 and slugging .462 in their last three games and have a career slugging average of .642 against Piniero. Piniero will have to hope for mostly ground outs, however, and he can get them with a 1.40 ground ball to fly ball ratio. His opponent, Ted Lilly, is hoping the Cardinals remain in a major hitting slump. St. Louis batted .222 and had a .273 slugging average in their series with the Brewers, a serious drop from their season average where they earned 1.67 total bases for each hit. With a 0.39 ground ball to fly ball ratio Lilly depends on striking batters out and getting enough action on the ball so that a hit pops out rather than reaches the fence. Lilly has been rock solid at Wrigley field and has put in three quality starts in a row. Away from home it has been a bit different where he has put in both of his poor starts, including a game at Houston where he gave up 4 home runs. I think there's a good chance St. Louis' offense wakes up and Lilly gets roughed up a bit, but unless Piniero can do better against the Cubs, especially Lee and Soriano, it will be for naught. I think there are more scenarios that could play out that favor the Cubs winning and they would make a good pick, but I favor the Cardinals at home over the Cubs away from Wrigley in this one.

8) It's time for the NBA Draft Lottery and to see who will be selecting the first player on June 25^th. The Lottery works by selecting the teams who will select the first three picks with the remaining 11 places determined by each team's final record during the regular season. The teams to pick first are chosen during the lottery process by selecting 4 balls out of 14 from a lotto machine. There are a total of 1001 combinations. Each team is assigned a certain number of combinations, in this case Sacramento receives 250 and Washington receives 178 while 1 of the combinations is a designated 'null' combination, i.e. they redraw the 4 balls if this 1 is chosen. The remaining 12 teams in the lottery receive some proportion of the other 572 combinations. Clearly there are more combinations representing the other 12 teams which could be drawn. Indeed, in the past 17 years the two teams with the most combinations have received the number 1 pick only 4 times: Orlando in 1992 who selected Shaquille O'Neal with the pick, Philadelphia in 1996 who picked Allen Iverson, Cleveland in 2003 who got LeBron James, and Orlando again in 2004 who selected Dwight Howard. It's a toss-up no matter what, but the odds favor any other team.9) Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, featuring the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets, is finally upon us. Denver has been incredibly hot lately, winning both of their series in 6 games or less. In the first round they lost an early 16 point first quarter lead before falling just short against New Orleans and followed up that game with a 58 point thrashing on the road. Against Dallas they lost Chris "Birdman" Andersen for a game and had Andersen in foul trouble for a second to earn their two losses in that series. In Denver's road games Chauncey Billups has averaged 6 assists during the playoffs which is exactly what he averaged on the road all season. Looking at the graph above one can see Billups had 7 or more assists in only 17 of 41 road games this year, with 83% of his games seeing him net 3 to 8 assists. Los Angeles has also played well, though they've been hot and cold, playing terribly in their losses to Houston and loss to Utah, and being dominant in their 8 victories. At the Staples Center the Lakers are 6-1 in these playoffs, losing Game 1 to the Houston Rockets and winning all 6 other games by double digits. Throughout the season the Lakers have an average margin of victory of 13.1 points on their home court. They will face tough competition against the Denver Nuggets, though they beat Denver by double digits in both games at the Staples Center during the regular season. Obviously, it will be very important for Denver to get strong performances from their bench, especially from Andersen and J.R. Smith. If they get those performances, and the starters can avoid too many turnovers, say 12 or fewer, Denver actually has a good chance of winning this game. I think the Lakers' defense will cause those turnovers, however, as Denver averages just over 15 turnovers per game. If Bynum continues to play as he did in Game 7 against the Rockets I think the Lakers will win by at least 8 points and that will be equal to or more than Billups' assists in this game.

Click on the image for a closer look.

11) The Los Angeles Angels will visit Safeco Field for the fifth time this season to take on the Mariners and Felix Hernandez. The red line in the graph above shows how many hits the Angels have gotten off of the starting pitcher of the opposition on a game-by-game basis. The navy blue line shows the number of times the Angels struck out against those starting pitchers. It's immediately apparent the Angels usually get a hit more often than they strike out, and on average they get nearly twice as many hits as strikeouts with 6.9 hits per game compared to 3.7 strikeouts per game. Looking at the graph one can see the Angels have only had fewer hits than strikeouts in 3 of 37 games this season. It's no surprise considering the Angels are averaging 1 strikeout for every 6 at bats and 1 hit every 4 at bats. The dotted lines represent, above, Hernandez's game high number of strikeouts last season and this season, and below, his average number of strikeouts this season. Hernandez has done well this season with 5 of 8 starts seeing him record more strikeouts than hits given up. Against the Angles, however, he has not seen that kind of success. In 4 starts against L.A. last season he gave up more hits in 3 games and had the same number of strikeouts as hits given up in 1. The current Angels' lineup, without Vlad Guerrero, is batting .267 against Hernandez over their careers, with a .222 strikeout average. That will make things very close, with the Angels averaging one more hit than strikeouts if they manage 24 at bats against Hernandez. As long as the Angels are able to get a bat on the ball rather than strike out they should win this prop by a small margin.