May 19th, 2009 Picks

1-0-0 again today and do I feel lucky to have gotten it. After I passed up on FC Nordsjælland and switched my pick to Carolina, meaning I wasn't confident in either pick, I settled on the L.A. Dodgers against the Mets. It looked good at first with the Dodgers picking up a couple of runs in the 1^st inning off of Redding. The Mets got a run back in the 2^nd, however, with a Wright double and a couple of sacrifice hits to advance the run in. Then, something I did not expect, Redding took on Wolf straight up in the pitchers duel. For the next 5 innings each pitcher did well with Wolf giving up 3 hits and Redding giving up 1. In the top of the 8^th Wolf gave up a double to Angel Pagan and was relieved after retiring the next two batters.

Wade gave up an RBI single to Sheffield immediately after and the Mets tied the game 2-2. J.J. Putz was brought in and nearly gave up a run with runners on first and third with two outs, but induced a ground out from pinch hitter Loretta. The Dodgers brought in Broxton for the top of the 9^th with the idea of ending the game at the bottom of the inning. Broxton did his job, but the Dodgers brought in a pinch hitter for him to lead off the ninth and Paul ground out. Feliciano was brought in with runners on first and third again with two outs and he caused Ethier to ground out to send the game into extra innings.

Troncoso was brought in for the Dodgers, and he retired his first two batters before giving up a single and walking the next. Fortunately, Tatis grounded out to third to end the Mets' turn in the 10^th. Brian Stokes made quick work of the Dodgers to extend the game for another inning. Troncoso remained in the game and repeated his patter, retiring two, and giving up a single. Angel Pagan then hit a deep triple but Ryan Church was called out when the umpires determined he had failed to step on third base as he ran past. Stokes started off the bottom of the 11^th by walking a batter, then a throwing error by Beltran allowed runners to reach first and second, and the Mets intentionally walked Pierre to load the baess. Furcal almost walked to end the game but ended up hitting a fly ball to get out. The Dodgers nearly blew another chance when Hudson hit into a routine double play but another error by the Mets allowed Loretta to score and end the game. *whew* And so on to the picks.

1) Southern California vs. Ohio State – Southern California
2) California vs. Duke – Duke
3) Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers – Detroit
4) Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox – Boston
5) Chicago Blackhawks @ Detroit Red Wings – 5 goals or fewer
6) Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros – Milwaukee
7) Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals – St. Louis
8) Which Team Gets No. 1 Pick: Kings or Wizards vs. Any Other Team – Any Other Team
9) Chauncey Billups ast. vs. Los Angeles Lakers win margin – Los Angeles win margin
10) San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres – San Diego
11) L. A. Angels hits off Hernandez vs. Felix Hernandez strikeouts – Angels hits off Hernandez

Analysis
4) The Boston Red Sox return to Fenway Park after a rough 6 game road trip that saw them drop 2 of 3 to both the Angels and the Mariners. In their series with the Mariners they batted a paltry .224, though they did slug .398 off of those hits to average 1.78 total bases per hit. They will be facing Brian Tallet when the Blue Jays visit today. Tallet has been a reliever for most of his career, and was pressed into a starting role after injuries struck Toronto's rotation. Tallet has done very well this season with only one truly awful outing, at Kansas City, where he gave up 10 earned runs on 11 hits in only 4 innings. Even with that on his record he has a 4.68 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, striking out nearly 7 batters per 9. He will face a stiff test against the Red Sox, who will be without Kevin Youkilis but will be returning David Ortiz and Julio Lugo to the lineup. Toronto should consider themselves fortunate if Tallet can get through 6 innings with only 2 or 3 runs conceded. Boston will be starting 42 year old Tim Wakefield on the mound tonight. Wakefield is coming off a poor outing against the Angels in which he lost a 4 run lead, giving up 7 earned runs without getting out of the 5^th inning. Wakefield has been very up and down this season, at one point throwing a 7 inning 1 hit gem followed by a 5 inning, 7 hit, 5 run game. Toronto has been batting well in their past three games, but no better than their season average. Against Wakefield they have batted .267 and slugged .409 in 247 at bats, and I think Wakefield will have an average game, meaning just a few runs given up to the Blue Jays. Overall I think Tallet is fortunate to have as low an ERA as he has, due to the number of batters he puts on base. As long as Wakefield has a quality start the Red Sox should be able to take a lead and hold on to it.

6) The Milwaukee Brewers are on a roll, winning their last 6 in a row and 8 of their last 10. Somehow they've found a way to win even when their bats are quiet, taking all three against the Cardinals and scoring 17 runs even though they only batted .183 and slugged .326 in the series. For their series against the Houston Astros the Brewers will have to do without second baseman Rickie Weeks, who suffered a season ending wrist injury while striking out in the first inning on Sunday against the Cardinals. Casey McGehee is expected to start against left-hander Mike Hampton today. McGehee is batting only .188 in 16 at bats this season, all singles. The Brewers still have plenty of power in their lineup, with Braun, Fielder, Hart, and Cameron all over .400 in slugging percentage. The Astros have some power in their lineup as well, with Lance Berkman improving, Hunter Pence showing promise, and the ever dangerous Carlos Lee. The Astros will have Mike Hampton on the mound to try and limit the Brewers. Hampton has a 5.31 ERA and 1.54 WHIP so far this season but has done very well in giving up only 4 home runs, and inducing more ground balls than fly balls this season. That doesn't bode well for the Brewers' power hitting, but it's unlikely Hampton could possibly shut down the Brewers any more than the Cardinals' pitchers did. In his last three starts he has pitched 15²/₃ innings and given up 19 hits for 13 earned runs while walking one more batter than he's struck out. If anything the Brewers will see a resurgence in hitting against Hampton, and with the number of batters he walks even singles could be deadly. The key for the Brewers will be Dave Bush limiting the Astros' improving bats. Bush has a 3.83 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, mainly due to his rarely walking a batter. Bush has had three straight quality starts, including a 5-3 win over Florida where he pitched for 7 innings, giving up 6 hits for 2 runs and striking out 7 batters and walking only 1. Overall, even if Hampton has a terrific start, it would take an abysmal one from Bush to give Houston a large lead. Even a four run lead with 3 innings to go would not be considered safe with Houston's bullpen giving up a home run every 6 innings pitched. If Milwaukee starts hitting well again, and I suspect they will, it should be a fairly easy victory.

7) The St. Louis Cardinals are hoping to get back on track when they return home to Busch Stadium after being swept in a 3 game series against the Milwaukee Brewers. They'll have to do so without the help of Ryan Ludwick or Rick Ankiel both of whom are still recuperating from minor injuries. That could spell trouble for the Cardinals, not only because of their skill with the bat, but also because Joel Piniero will be pitching. Piniero is quite possibly the league leader in putting balls in play, having walked only 7 batters in and struck out only 14 in 45¹/₃ innings pitched. Without two of their starting outfielders it could mean more hits for a Cubs team that is already batting .283 and slugging .462 in their last three games and have a career slugging average of .642 against Piniero. Piniero will have to hope for mostly ground outs, however, and he can get them with a 1.40 ground ball to fly ball ratio. His opponent, Ted Lilly, is hoping the Cardinals remain in a major hitting slump. St. Louis batted .222 and had a .273 slugging average in their series with the Brewers, a serious drop from their season average where they earned 1.67 total bases for each hit. With a 0.39 ground ball to fly ball ratio Lilly depends on striking batters out and getting enough action on the ball so that a hit pops out rather than reaches the fence. Lilly has been rock solid at Wrigley field and has put in three quality starts in a row. Away from home it has been a bit different where he has put in both of his poor starts, including a game at Houston where he gave up 4 home runs. I think there's a good chance St. Louis' offense wakes up and Lilly gets roughed up a bit, but unless Piniero can do better against the Cubs, especially Lee and Soriano, it will be for naught. I think there are more scenarios that could play out that favor the Cubs winning and they would make a good pick, but I favor the Cardinals at home over the Cubs away from Wrigley in this one.

8) It's time for the NBA Draft Lottery and to see who will be selecting the first player on June 25^th. The Lottery works by selecting the teams who will select the first three picks with the remaining 11 places determined by each team's final record during the regular season. The teams to pick first are chosen during the lottery process by selecting 4 balls out of 14 from a lotto machine. There are a total of 1001 combinations. Each team is assigned a certain number of combinations, in this case Sacramento receives 250 and Washington receives 178 while 1 of the combinations is a designated 'null' combination, i.e. they redraw the 4 balls if this 1 is chosen. The remaining 12 teams in the lottery receive some proportion of the other 572 combinations. Clearly there are more combinations representing the other 12 teams which could be drawn. Indeed, in the past 17 years the two teams with the most combinations have received the number 1 pick only 4 times: Orlando in 1992 who selected Shaquille O'Neal with the pick, Philadelphia in 1996 who picked Allen Iverson, Cleveland in 2003 who got LeBron James, and Orlando again in 2004 who selected Dwight Howard. It's a toss-up no matter what, but the odds favor any other team.9) Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, featuring the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets, is finally upon us. Denver has been incredibly hot lately, winning both of their series in 6 games or less. In the first round they lost an early 16 point first quarter lead before falling just short against New Orleans and followed up that game with a 58 point thrashing on the road. Against Dallas they lost Chris "Birdman" Andersen for a game and had Andersen in foul trouble for a second to earn their two losses in that series. In Denver's road games Chauncey Billups has averaged 6 assists during the playoffs which is exactly what he averaged on the road all season. Looking at the graph above one can see Billups had 7 or more assists in only 17 of 41 road games this year, with 83% of his games seeing him net 3 to 8 assists. Los Angeles has also played well, though they've been hot and cold, playing terribly in their losses to Houston and loss to Utah, and being dominant in their 8 victories. At the Staples Center the Lakers are 6-1 in these playoffs, losing Game 1 to the Houston Rockets and winning all 6 other games by double digits. Throughout the season the Lakers have an average margin of victory of 13.1 points on their home court. They will face tough competition against the Denver Nuggets, though they beat Denver by double digits in both games at the Staples Center during the regular season. Obviously, it will be very important for Denver to get strong performances from their bench, especially from Andersen and J.R. Smith. If they get those performances, and the starters can avoid too many turnovers, say 12 or fewer, Denver actually has a good chance of winning this game. I think the Lakers' defense will cause those turnovers, however, as Denver averages just over 15 turnovers per game. If Bynum continues to play as he did in Game 7 against the Rockets I think the Lakers will win by at least 8 points and that will be equal to or more than Billups' assists in this game.

Click on the image for a closer look.

11) The Los Angeles Angels will visit Safeco Field for the fifth time this season to take on the Mariners and Felix Hernandez. The red line in the graph above shows how many hits the Angels have gotten off of the starting pitcher of the opposition on a game-by-game basis. The navy blue line shows the number of times the Angels struck out against those starting pitchers. It's immediately apparent the Angels usually get a hit more often than they strike out, and on average they get nearly twice as many hits as strikeouts with 6.9 hits per game compared to 3.7 strikeouts per game. Looking at the graph one can see the Angels have only had fewer hits than strikeouts in 3 of 37 games this season. It's no surprise considering the Angels are averaging 1 strikeout for every 6 at bats and 1 hit every 4 at bats. The dotted lines represent, above, Hernandez's game high number of strikeouts last season and this season, and below, his average number of strikeouts this season. Hernandez has done well this season with 5 of 8 starts seeing him record more strikeouts than hits given up. Against the Angles, however, he has not seen that kind of success. In 4 starts against L.A. last season he gave up more hits in 3 games and had the same number of strikeouts as hits given up in 1. The current Angels' lineup, without Vlad Guerrero, is batting .267 against Hernandez over their careers, with a .222 strikeout average. That will make things very close, with the Angels averaging one more hit than strikeouts if they manage 24 at bats against Hernandez. As long as the Angels are able to get a bat on the ball rather than strike out they should win this prop by a small margin.

May 18th, 2009 Picks

1-0-0 today for me, and props to you if you picked up on Goydos, Torquay United, the Yankees, the Padres, and the Magic. My sole win of the day came with Jake Peavy and the San Diego Padres. San Diego took an early 2-0 lead in the bottom of the first before Arroyo settled down to give us a true pitchers duel. Arroyo started off the game by walking walking Macias and hitting Edgar Gonzalez with a pitch. He got Adrian Gonzalez and Headley to strike out and nearly got out of the jam, but Kouzmanoff and Gerut hit a pair of RBI singles before Wilson flied out to end the inning.

From there the Padres got a man or two on base but couldn't drive them home each inning while the Reds got absolutely nothing, no walks and no hits, until Dickerson hit a solo shot home run in the top of the 6^th. Kouzmanoff got the run back with a solo home run of his own to lead off the bottom of the 8^th. In the 9^th inning Peavy got the first two outs before giving up a single to Hairston Jr., and finished the complete effort by striking out Bruce. The Padres completed the sweep with the 3-1 victory. So on the damn picks.

1) Vejle @ FC Nordsjælland – FC Nordsjælland win
2) Sunderland @ Portsmouth – Sunderland win or draw
3) Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees – Minnesota
4) Carolina Hurricanes @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Carolina
5) Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals – St. Louis
6) Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners – Seattle
7) New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers – Los Angeles

Analysis
1) Today the relegation focus is shifted to the Danish SAS-Ligæn when Vejle Boldklub visit Farum Stadion to take on F.C. Nordsjælland. Vejle currently sit at the bottom of the table and have 4 matches to try and gain 4 points on their closest rival, Sonderjyske. FC Nordsjælland are currently 4 spots safe of relegation with 28 points and need to secure 6 points from their final 4 matches to ensure their place in the SAS-Ligæn next season. Overall Vejle have had the better recent form, going 0-3-3 (W-D-L) in their previous 6 matches, with draws away at AaB and Sonderjyske and a draw at home with fellow relegation side AC Horsens. They have scored 4 goals in those matches but have conceded 12, being outscored by 8 in their three losses. FC Nordsjælland are only 0-1-5 in their previous 6 matches, with the draw coming at home against Sondersjyske. They have only scored 2 goals and conceded 8 in those 6 matches. FC Nordsjælland played a much tougher schedule in that stretch, however, with the losses coming against the top 4 clubs in the league and 6^th place AGF Aarhus, while Vejle had played mostly bottom half teams. The selection of each side has been revealed by their managers. FC Nordsjælland will see their defense bolstered by the return of Henrik Kildentoft, while Vejle are forced to field one of their weakest sides yet this season with Brian Nielsen and Ibrahim Salou failing to pass their latest fitness tests, and defender Bora Zivkovic, and midfielders Steffan Kielstrup and Allan Gaarde being out with suspensions. It will be only the second match of the season Velje BK have played without Zivkovic, while Kielstrup and Nielsen have started a majority of their matches. All five players out started for Vejle in 1-1 draw played at home against FC Nordsjælland and their contributions will be missed. I think FC Nordsjælland will take advantage this situation, their best opportunity for 3 points, and bring themselves one victory away from safety with a 2-0 win.

2) Portsmouth F.C. interim manager Phil Hart has some decisions to make as Hull City and Newcastle United failed to make up the ground necessary to be able to catch Portsmouth in the tables, making Pompey safe and ensuring their place in the Premier League for next season. With that in mind Hart may decide to rest some of his senior players in favor of giving some younger reserves some match experience. Striker Peter Crouch may receive some rest in favor of Kanu, Younes Kaboul in the backfield could start on the sidelines as well. Look for Noe Pamarot and Armand Traore to possibly figure in the Starting XI as well for this match. Ricky Sbragia, for Sunderland, cannot be as free with his selections with Newcastle still within reach and relegation an unlikely, but real, possibility. SkySports highlights each clubs recent form. Portsmouth are 1-2-3 (W-D-L) in their last six with 3 goals scored and 9 goals conceded while Sunderland are 1-1-4 in their last 6 with only 2 goals scored and 7 goals conceded. Both sides have had an awful time finishing for the past few weeks, with Sunderland not having scored in their last 3 matches, and Portsmouth with zero goals in their previous 4. Overall Pompey are 7-3-8 with 23 goals for and 28 goals against in 18 matches this season at Fratton Park. Sunderland are 3-6-9 with 12 goals scored and 26 against away from The Stadium of Light. Sunderland look to be bolstered by the return of defender George McCarthy to the backfield. They also expect Teemu Tainio, Kenwyne Jones, and Kieran Richardson to shake off minor knocks and figure for this match. As always the BBC has a wonderful preview prepared for the match. They note that reserve keeper Craig Gordon and defender Nyron Nosworthy are out for Sunderland. They also note that Sunderland have not won at Fratton Park since 1997 and have not won a top flight match there in 51 years. Another good sign for Portsmouth, who have had 5 players sent off this season, is that referee Alan Wiley has only sent off two players in 26 matches. The BBC also carry statistics for the Black Cats and for Pompey. Sunderland F.C. will be looking to possibly continue their use of a 4-2-3-1 formation as a way of getting Kieran Richardson more scoring opportunities, although he has not been able to finish lately. Pompey fans believe their side can come away with the result, but they see it as a difficult prospect especially if Hart opts to go with a younger lineup. The London Telegraph carries a preview in which they expect these sides to play to a 'boring, lifeless draw'. Even some Pompey fans agree with the prospect of a scoreless draw being the result here. Portsmouth have won the last two matches they have played against Sunderland, both thanks to penalty kicks drilled home by Jermaine Defoe, who was transferred to Tottenham Hotspurs this January. Once the penalty came in the final minute of injury time and Sunderland lost 2-1 and the other time they were well on their way to a 0-0 draw when Portsmouth was awarded a 69' penalty that eventually led to a 1-0 win. I think barring the same kind of finish and penalties Sunderland will be motivated to get a result and can secure a 1-1 draw here.

3) After three straight games won with a walk-off run the New York Yankees hope to complete a four game sweep of the Minnesota Twins. Minnesota will start Glen Perkins on the mound for this game. Perkins has a 4.27 ERA and an impressive 1.19 WHIP through 7 starts this season. His first three games were very good, shutting down teams such as the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays and going 8 innings in each and allowing no more than 7 hits and 2 earned runs. Since then he has faced some control issues, walking more batters than usual and allowing more runs. In his last start he lasted only 5¹/₃ innings against the Detroit Tigers, allowing 5 earned runs on 5 hits and walking 4 batters. The Twins still won the game 14 to 10, so even if Perkins pitches a poor game the Twins still have a chance with solid hitting on their side. The Twins have struggled a bit in their series against the Yankees, however, even at the the new Yankee Stadium with a .231 batting average and .398 slugging average. Andy Pettite will be pitching for the Yankees and try and keep the Twins from seeing a resurgence of their bats. Pettite has a 4.00 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the season and appears to have regained his form after a rough patch saw him 13 earned runs in 3 games, including 4 home runs to the Tampa Bay Rays over 6 innings against them at Yankee Stadium. In his last start he shut down the Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre, pitching for 6 innings and giving up only 5 hits leading to 1 earned run. He did walk 4 batters while only striking out 2, but the Blue Jays' batters are skilled at taking walks. Minnesota has done well against Pettite in the past, batting .411 and slugging .548 in 73 at bats against the left-hander, so even if Pettite is on his game I expect he will give up a couple of runs in 6 innings. The Yankees have also batted well against Glen Perkins, so even though I expect he will be back in form for this game I think he will also give up a couple of runs. That would lead to another very close game, with the bullpens deciding the game. In terms of strikeouts the Yankees' bullpen is superior, and although the Yankees give up more home runs on average that could be expected for a team playing half of their games at a home run park. The reason I like Minnesota here is that Perkins is more likely to last 7 or even 8 innings and I see the Twins' batters as more likely to get the big hits in this game.

6) The Los Angeles Angels visit the Seattle Mariners after being swept by Texas at Ranger Stadium. The Seattle Mariners are feeling fairly good after taking two of three games against visiting Boston. Los Angeles played well, batting .301, though they had problems getting long hits with their slugging at .408. They simply could not outpace the Rangers' offense, even with Joe Saunders pitching for them. They will start John Lackey for this game in his first real start of the season. He was slated to pitch in the second game of the Rangers series but was ejected after hitting Ian Kinsler with his second pitch thrown. The right hander was a strong pitcher last year, with a 3.75 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through 163¹/₃ innings. There is some talk that the Mariners' right handed heavy batting order suffers against right handed pitchers, though their batting average is unchanged between righties and lefties and their slugging average is only a few points worse. I think the Angels will need a solid six innings out of Lackey as they will be batting against Jarrod Washburn. Washburn has a 3.11 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 7 starts this season and has only had a couple of less than quality starts, including his latest at Rangers Ballpark. Texas got 7 hits off of him leading to 4 earned runs in 6 innings with Washburn walking 4 batters that day. I think he'll settle down against the Angels' bats, give up a long ball or two, but limit their overall hits and allow 3 runs at the very most. If Lackey is fully healthy and in form the Angels could very well win this, but if the Mariners have a lead with the bullpens coming on it will be their game.

7) The New York Mets have been playing well going 7-3 in their last 10 games. They were denied a sweep of the San Francisco Giants last night partially due to the three balks by Mike Pelfrey allowing runners to advance into scoring position. Three balks is a ridiculous number for any pitcher, but the Mets were not hitting well enough off of Cain to have a good chance of picking up the win in any case. During the series they batted .327 and had a .411 slugging average, hitting well even off of Tim Lincecum and all without Jose Reyes or Carlos Delgado. Jose Reyes could make a return tonight but Delgado is expected to remain sidelined. In any case the Mets will have a difficult time against Dodgers starter Randy Wolf. Wolf has a 2.77 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 8 starts this season, with only one mediocre start in his first of the season Wolf has followed with a 2 hit gem against Arizona and 6 straight quality starts. His last 3 starts have seen him allow 10 hits and 3 runs total in 17¹/₃ innings pitched. The Mets' lineup has done well over 238 at bats against Wolf, batting .277 and slugging .441, but with Wolf pitching some of the best ball of his career and the Mets hitting well above average recently I think it's most likely the Mets will see 5 or 6 hits off of Wolf with 1 or 2 runs scored. The Mets will be giving Tim Redding his first major league start tonight after he began the season with a shoulder injury. Redding has been rehabbing with AAA affiliate Buffalo, giving them 13 quality innings so it appears he is fully healthy. Unfortunately for the Mets Redding has been shelled in 58 at bats facing the Dodgers, with L.A., less Manny Ramirez, batting .333 and slugging .725 against him. As long as Wolf retains a modicum of his play from the past three weeks the Dodgers should find themselves with a small lead their bullpen should be able to protect.

May 17th, 2009 Picks

1-0-0 today as I picked up a victory with the Chicago Cubs. I could have added another couple of games to my streak with Fulham, the Rangers, Tigers, Pirates, or Marlins, but there will be plenty of chances in the future. In the Cubs game Randy Wells and Roy Oswalt had a good go at it. Wells got himself into trouble in the 2^nd inning by giving up a single and walking two batters after getting his first two batters faced out with a double play. Fortunately Oswalt was a simple ground out and the game went on 0 to 0. The teams combined for 2 hits until the bottom of the 6^th when Soriano lead off with a single. A couple of sacrifices by Theriot and Fukudome advanced him to third, and a single by Derek Lee brought him home. Hoffpauir followed with a home run to put the Cubs up 3-0. Both pitchers were done after that and it was the Astros bullpen who gave up another run with a couple of walks and an RBI single in the 8^th.

Chicago put in closer Kevin Gregg to protect the four run lead, but he gave up two straight solo home runs to Berkman and Lee and then proceeded to give up two singles and hit the next batter with a pitch to load the bases. Chicago finally had Heilman warmed up but he gave up a two RBI single to tie the game. Heilman got two outs, but ended up walking the bases loaded again. Sean Marshall came in and got the final out of the inning. Fortunately for Chicago Scales walked to lead off the inning, then Miles hit a sacrifice to advance him to second, and Soriano hit the walk-off RBI single to end the game with Chicago up 5 to 4. So on to the picks.

1) Paul Goydos vs. Justin Leonard – Goydos has a lower score through three rounds
2) Lecce @ Bologna – Lecce win or draw
3) Cambridge United vs. Torquay United – Torquay United
4) Zach Johnson or Dustin Johnson vs. Rest Of Field - Zach Johnson or Dustin Johnson
5) Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees – New York
6) Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals – Baltimore
7) Chicago Blackhawks @ Detroit Red Wings – Detroit
8) Aaron Brooks vs. Lamar Odom – Odom pts. and reb.
9) Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres – San Diego
10) Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners – Seattle
11) Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics – Orlando
12) New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants – New York

Analysis
2) U.S. Lecce travel to the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna F.C. in a battle to avoid relegation to Serie B. Each side trail Torino for the last safety position by less than 3 points, so if Torino fail to win at Napoli a win by either team here would raise them clear of relegation. Of course, every match save Internazionale Milan at Siena are being played at 6pm CEST so they will have to play to win and assume Torino will not keep pace. Lecce have not fared well over the years at Bologna, losing three matches there and drawing twice going back 10 years. Goal.com carries an English language preview of the match. They point out that the Rossoblu are carrying a number of injuries, most importantly to Salvatore Lanna in the backfield and Davide Bombardini at midfield. Each of these players have started a majority of Bologna's matches, while the other injury concerns mentioned have started in 10 or fewer matches. The injuries and suspension mentioned for Lecce are not too concerning. Lecce fielded a side without including any of them away at Juventus and came away with a 2-2 draw. SkyBet carries odds on this game with Bologna to win at 4/5 (-125, 50.6%), Lecce to win at 10/3 (+333, 21.0%), and the draw at 11/5 (+220, 28.4%). Based on their goals scored and allowed I think Lecce is being greatly undervalued here, with the draw and Bologna winning being overvalued at their expense. With both sides fighting to save their seasons I think the defenses will be better than they have been, but not good enough for a clean sheet leading to a 1-1 draw in this match.

3) It's the Blue Square Premier promotion playoff final at Wembley stadium. The winner of this one-off will be promoted to the League Two of the Football Association, a major accomplishment for both of these clubs. Prior to losing 1-3 away at Stevenage Borough in the first leg of their semi-final tie Cambridge United had gone undefeated for 4 matches. That was their last regular season loss and it was also away at Stevenage. The U's still earned a trip to Wembley with a 3-0 home win in the 2nd leg of their tie. Torquay United had gone undefeated for 5 matches, including 3 draws and a 2-1 defeat of of league leaders Burton Albion, before losing 0-1 away at Histon. It was a solid enough defensive effort to win the semi-final 2-1 in aggregate as they had already defeated Histon 2-0 in the first leg. During the season Torquay United went undefeated against Cambridge, winning 1-0 away and drawing 0-0 at home. This is not a home match for either squad, though Cambridge is about 140 miles closer to London than Torquay. Torquay were 12-7-4 (W-D-L) away this season with 34 GS and 24 GA while Cambridge were 10-8-5 away with 31 GS and 24 GA. Both sides are healthy and essentially at full-strength, though both carry concerns with their first string keepers. Torquay United's Bevan is rated as 50/50 so they may play his replacement, Michael Poke. Poke has figured in their last 3 matches, conceding only 2 goals, and started in their impressive win over Burton Albion. Rumors have been ignited about the fitness of Cambridge United keeper Danny Potter with the emergency signing of Kidderminster Harrier's keeper Adam Bartlett. Adam Bartlett is considered a very good goalie, having played for England's national team on the 'C' squad. Cambridge United themselves are claiming he is only experienced cover for Potter should he be injured during the final. As always BBC and Setanta Sports have nice previews of the match. They mention that Gulls forward Blair Sturrock has picked up a knock in the tie against Histon. Torquay United will be able to select from strength in selecting his replacement to pair with Sills on the attack. The Cambridge News note that have many players on their squad have played at Wembley last year. In contrast, Torquay United is full of footballers who played in last years Blue Square Premier promotion semi-final, but did not advance past Exeter City to play at Wembley. SkyBet has the match exactly even with either side to win at 6/4 and draw at 9/4, but I think Torquay will be able to pull off a 1-0 win much as they did back in September at Cambridge.

6) The Baltimore Orioles are hoping to win back to back games on the road for only the second time this season when they face the Kansas City Royals. The Orioles will have Koji Uehara pitching for them, a 31 year old veteran of the Nippon Professional Baseball league, has been very good this season posting a 4.01 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. His last outing was a 6 inning, 6 hit, 1 earned run domination of the New York Yankees, though the Orioles lost the game 5-3. Uehara has a good sense of the strike zone, striking out over four times as many batters as he walks, but has difficulty keeping the ball low evidenced by his low ground ball to fly ball ratio. Kansas City will counter with Luke Hochevar, who had a complete nightmare of a first start by pitching 2 innings and allowing 8 earned runs on 7 hits. His ERA is 36.00 from that game and his WHIP is 4.50, but I am sure those numbers will go way down after this game. Last season he had a 5.51 ERA through 129 innings, so while he has been mediocre at best he is not prone to giving up more than 1 run per inning. Kansas City has been batting above average in their last three games with a .304 batting average and a .471 slugging average. Baltimore has been below average with a .262 batting average and .383 slugging average. I think Uehara will assist Kansas City in their natural return to the norm and as the Royals are not a power hitting team particularly his low ground ball production will not be too detrimental. Baltimore should also have a bit of a breakout game, with at least their batting average improving against Hochevar. The Orioles will need to have a lead through 6 innings to have a good chance of winning here, however, as the Royals' bullpen has been fairly impressive so far this season.8) It's Game 7 of the quarterfinal series between the Houston Rockets and the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers were up 2 games to 1 when it was revealed that Yao Ming had broken his foot and would be out for the remainder of the playoffs. Since then the Rockets have won two games in Houston in a blowout and a near blowout and the Lakers won Game 5 in L.A. in a 40 point blowout. Not surprisingly, the team who has won in a blowout has had the players racking up the points, assists, and rebounds. In this game Lamar Odom is expected to be the starter to help defensively against a Rockets team that is smaller and quicker without Yao Ming in the lineup. Looking at the graphs above it's clear that Odom has averaged more points and rebounds at home than Brooks has averaged points and assists on the road, with Odom averaging 19.1 to 16.0 for Brooks. In L.A. the story is a bit different with Brooks averaging 17.4 points and assists, and Odom averaging only 15.8 points and rebounds against the Rockets. As both players started the season on the bench and earned starting roles due to trade or injury I think these averages are still reflective of their relative production. Aaron Brooks, being one of the fastest players on the Rockets, has become one of the focal points of their offense so his production can be expected to go up. Lamar Odom's role remains unchanged. Essentially Brooks does have the better chance of winning this prop in any given game, but this is Game 7 of a playoff series. I expect the Lakers to step up their defense and make things hard for Brooks and the rest of the Rockets team leading to fewer points and assists for Brooks. The key is for Odom to be effective while he is on the court. He will be sharing minutes with Andrew Bynum and if Odom is not effective and Bynum is then Odom will lose some minutes in this game. I don't see Bynum stepping up his game suddenly with the pressure higher than it's ever been since he's such a young player and think Odom will be a major part of a Lakers blowout.

9) The Cincinnati Reds try to avoid being swept on the road in their series with the San Diego Padres, but the presence of Jake Peavy on the mound for San Diego won't make the job any easier. Peavy has a 4.30 ERA and 1.22 WHIP so far this season after a little rough patch a few weeks ago against the Pirates and the Giants. Since then he has been magnificent, including this 2 hit gem against the Dodgers, pitching for 21 innings in 3 starts and giving up 5 earned runs from 12 hits while striking out 29 batters and walking only 6. Cincinnati has been batting .220 and slugging .378 in their last three games, including the 16 inning marathon last night, and I don't see it getting any easier for them in this game. The Padres have also had their struggles at the plate, batting .197 and slugging .393, meaning that while they have not gotten many hits they have had more power behind those hits. They will face off against Bronson Arroyo in this game. Arroyo has struggled this season with a 7.02 ERA and 1.61 WHIP through 7 starts. In his last start, against Arizona, he pitched for 7 innings and gave up 5 runs on 10 hits which isn't too shabby, especially when you receive 13 runs of support from your batters. I think Arroyo could fairly be expected to give up 4 or 5 runs in this game, but with Peavy pitching for the Padres it could very well prove to be too much. With either team potentially being forced to delve deep into their bullpens after the extra innings last night, however, it could end up being anybody's game with big runs being scored late.

12) The New York Mets will be trying to complete a 4 game sweep of the San Francisco Giants today. Both teams have been hitting well, but the Mets have just gotten so many more hits, especially against the Giants' bullpen. New York is batting .359 and slugging .436 in the series against San Francisco while the Giants are doing great with a batting average of .309 and slugging average of .473. Those extra bases the Giants are getting would normally be enough, but it's difficult to overcome a team getting hits nearly 40% of their at bats. The Giants will try to contain New York with Matt Cain, a 3.00 ERA and 1.36 WHIP pitcher this season. The Mets will have Mike Pelfrey pitching for them who has a 4.89 ERA and 1.57 WHIP through 6 starts. Pelfrey is coming off of one of his better outings of the season, a 7 inning, 6 hit, 2 earned run game against the Atlanta Braves. A more likely game for Pelfrey is to pitch 5 or 6 innings while giving up 3 to 5 runs as he is not too economical with his pitches. One advantage Pelfrey has over Cain is his ground ball to fly ball ratio, which is more than double Cain's. With so many ground balls being hit off Pelfrey it's not surprise the Giants' current batting order has never hit more than a single off of Pelfrey. In 94 at bats the Mets are slugging .468 off of Cain, so I think he may give up some RBI doubles to the Mets. The Giants will continue to hit above average against Pelfrey, but they will struggle to get the long hits scoring multiple runs at a time. Pelfrey will still give up at lest 3 runs and so the Mets will need to provide some run support. They will just have to hope they can do better than Diamondbacks in this game, which Cain dominated. If the Mets can get some doubles and a home run off of Cain they should win. Even if Cain shuts down the Mets, as long as they are able to face the Giants' bullpen for a few innings their chances of winning remain large.

May 16th, 2009 Picks

3-1-0 today after a rocky start with Hoffman. I woke up to discover he’d hit his first tee shot out into the few trees that are on the course, then overhit the green, then underhit his chip shot, and finally ended up with a 6 stroke bogey. Ogilvie hit par, and they continued to hit par through to the 8^th hole where they both hit birdie. Another par was on the menu for each on the 9^th hole and Ogilvie won the prop by 1 stroke, 34 to 35.

My second pick was 57 points or fewer in the Rugby League match between the Castleford Tigers and Leeds Rhinos. There was a flurry of scoring to start the match, 22 points in the first 15 minutes, which put them on pace to score 117, but the defenses hardened up. By the end of the match there were 46 points with Leeds winning 24 to 22 on a last moment drop kick.

My third pick was the Colorado Rockies. It was a clear pitchers duel for a while before De La Rosa gave up a single, a stolen base, and an RBI single all with two outs, to put Colorado down 1-0. Colorado missed on a great scoring opportunity with men on 1^st and 3^rd and no outs when Tulowitzki flied out and Smith was caught running before the catch for the double play. Capps came in for the save in the 9^th inning and immediately gave up a ground rule double and a 2 run homer to Hawpe. He gave up an RBI single to Multon to put Colorado up 3-1. Street came in for the Rockies and proceeded to strike out three batters to get the save. Maholm got a no decision and Capps got the loss.

My fourth pick was the Seattle Mariners to get more hits off of Lester than strikeouts Lester would record. Through the first 4 innings the Mariners had 3 hits and were struck out 3 times. Lester took the lead briefly and was up 5 to 4 going into the 6^th inning. There he gave up two singles, followed by a 2 RBI single and a 2 run homer to put himself down 8 to 5 in the prop and the Red Sox down 5 to 4 and that was it for Lester. So on to the picks.

1) Jonathan Kaye vs. Charlie Wi – Wi cards a lower front 9 score
2) Fulham @ Newcastle United – Fulham win or draw
3) Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs – Chicago
4) Paul Goydos vs. Justin Leonard – Goydos cards a lower 3^rd round score
5) Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers – Texas
6) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Florida Marlins – Florida
7) Preakness Stakes: Rachel Alexandra finishes 1^st or 2^nd vs. 3^rd or worse – 1^st or 2^nd
8) Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals – Washington
9) Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh
10) Oakland Athletics @ Detroit Tigers - Detroit
11) Colorado @ New England – New England win
12) Cincinnati Reds vs. Boston Red Sox – Cincinnati wins by more runs

Analysis
1) Charlie Wi is on pace to have his most successful year on the Tour since he debuted in 2002 with three top 10 finishes in his first 11 events netting him over $900,000. Jonathan Kaye debuted on the Tour in 1995 and saw marginal success but saw gradual improvement. In 2003 he had his greatest year, earning just over $2.4 million from 27 events. Since then he has gradually declined, and has just one top 25 finish from 8 events earning him $107,000. You can view Charlie Wi's stats on pgatour.com and compare them to Jonathan Kaye's stats. Wi has superior numbers in categories such as driving accuracy, putting average, scoring average, and birdie average. Jonathan Kaye has played 12 rounds at the Resort Course for this event since 2001, this year, in 2005, 2002, and 2001. He missed the cut once, and in those 12 rounds he has a median front 9 score of even par and his most common score has been even par, carding 35 in 5 of the 12 rounds. He has carded scores under par on the front 9 only twice in those 12 rounds, including his -1 yesterday. Charlie Wi is playing in this event for the fourth time in his career. He has played 12 rounds, missing the cut once, and has a median front 9 score of -1 and his most common score is also -1, carding a 34 in 4 of his 12 rounds. He has been under par 7 times and over par 3 times. Jonathan Kaye's front 9 scores have ranged from 34 to 37, while Charlie Wi has carded anywhere from 31 to 38. Assuming Kaye could score anywhere from -3 to +3 and Wi could score anywhere from -4 to +4 with their median and most common scores being most likely I have Wi as a heavy favorite at 51% to win and Kaye at 33% to win. I do not favor Kaye to handle the increased difficulty of the course well, and do not think Wi will double bogey a par 3 this round by hitting into a ravine.

2) Fulham F.C. visit St. James' Park to take on Newcastle United. The Magpies are fighting to stay clear of relegation, Fulham are attempting to secure a place in next year's Europa League with 7^th place and the football world is holding their breath with anticipation for this match. Both sides are coming off of crucial home victories with Newcastle winning at St. James' for the first time since Christmas, 3-1 over Middlesbrough. Fulham defeated Aston Villa 3-1 at Craven Cottage. Both sides have some injury concerns. Newcastle United will be without the services of defender Jose Enrique, and Joey Barton remains suspended while Fulham will be missing Simon Davies. All of these players missed their clubs previous victories, so success can be found without them. Another review by Fulham supporters notes Giles Barnes is definitely out for this match, though he has not figured for Fulham since January. Fulham will also be returning Andrew Johnson and Bobby Zamora, though their replacements, Diomansy Kamara (2 goals against Aston Villa) and Erik Nevland (1 goal at Chelsea) have been playing well enough to warrant a place in the starting XI. Setanta Sports note that Fulham have conceded fewer goals than any side in the Premiership excepting Liverpool, Chelsea, and Manchester United. SkySports carries a rather pessimistic preview for Newcastle United noting there is no rivalry aspect as with Middlesbrough. A review by some Toons notes Newcastle has won two matches consecutively only once this season. FootyMAD carry detailed head to head results. Of note, Fulham have won 5 of the last 8 meetings with Newcastle United. Finally BBC Sports has a terrific review with plethora of statistics including best and worst performances by each side and detailed club statistics. Essentially, and not surprisingly, Fulham are the better side statistically as might be expected of a team knocking on Europe's door instead of attempting to escape relegation. Newcastle United may be motivated by their first home win of the calendar year, but Fulham have been in good form as well and return two of their top players for this match. I think Fulham's discipline and tactical play will see them through to a win, 1-0.

3) After their game yesterday was rained out the Chicago Cubs have decided to give young Randy Wells the start today instead. The Houston Astros have opted to hold off on Moehler pitching and will be going with perennial Cy Young candidate Roy Oswalt. Oswalt has had a decent start to the season for the average pitcher, but a 4.50 ERA and 1.34 WHIP are definitely sub-par numbers for him. He has had two very nice starts, both against the Reds this season, but otherwise has given up 3 runs or more in every start. He pitched against Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs in his first start and did decently, giving up 3 earned runs in and 7 hits in 7 innings in a losing effort. His past two starts have not gone as well as that even, against Washington and San Diego. In those starts he has pitched for 11 innings and given up only 10 hits, but those hits have led to 9 earned runs being scored with three being home runs. That is not good news for Oswalt as he faces the Cubs for the second time this season, this time at Wrigley Park. Chicago has been batting .302 and slugging .635 in their last three games, thanks to 6 home runs and countless doubles in their series against the Padres. It would be easier to expect Oswalt to have a good outing against the Cubs who are sure to quiet down at the plate, except he has more mediocre and poor outings than good ones this season. The Houston Astros also have the hot bats lately, batting .352 and slugging .443 in their last 3 games. In one of those games they had 24 hits, but nearly all singles. They are sure to quiet down a bit at the plate as well, but one has to give them a good shot at staying hot against Randy Wells. Wells has 5 major league innings under his belt this season, giving up 5 hits and zero earned runs. He was pretty good for AAA Iowa also, pitching 26 innings and recording a 2.77 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. I think for the Astros to have a chance they need Oswalt to limit the Cubs to 2 or 3 runs, though even that may not be enough if Wells excels on the mound also. I think Chicago will have an advantage at Wrigley Field and will be able to make up a 2 run deficit if they have to. Still, if Wells gets shelled the Astros will be in a very good position to win.

6) The Florida Marlins seek to stop a 5 game slide that has seen them go ahead only to end up losing in game after game. The Los Angeles Dodgers won't give them an easy time of it. After starting out rough with the loss of Manny Ramirez they appear to have found their groove, winning three straight and scoring 20 runs in those wins. They've batted .342 and have a .570 slugging average in those wins, so it's clear they have their confidence back. One might expect the Dodgers to slump a bit at the plate some time soon, but they will be facing Andrew Miller. Miller is coming off a rehab stint with AA Jacksonville where he performed very well. Facing the Dodgers may be giving him nightmares, however. In two games last season against the Dodgers he gave up 6 runs in 3 innings and 7 runs in 1²/₃ innings in another. I do think he'll do better in this game, but he has next to zero chance of shutting out L.A. completely. For the Dodgers Eric Milton will be pitching for the first time this season after a successful 7 game stint with AAA Albuquerque. He will face a weak Marlins offense that has been actually doing fairly well lately. In their last 3 games they're batting .235 and slugging .431, which is not very good but a bit above average for the Marlins this season. I think this will be a fairly high scoring game, and I like Miller to pitch better as he has more experience this season, whereas Milton has pitched some this year in AAA, and before that 6 games in the Majors in 2007 along with some more minor league ball. The Marlins will need to have a breakout performance to win this game, so a safer bet is probably on the Dodgers. I just have a feeling the Marlins will pull off a victory at home for once.

8) The Philadelphia Phillies attempt their most recent three game sweep of the Washington Nationals in the second game of a double header. They just won the first game 8 to 5 behind strong hitting from the top two-thirds of their order. For the second game they will call upon the services of Andrew Carpenter, who has been putting in fairly ho-hum performances for AAA Lehigh Valley with a 4.76 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 6 starts for them. He's also given up 6 home runs in that time. Happ was scheduled to pitch for this game, but a 12 inning duel forced him to pitch and left him unavailable for this game. The Washington Nationals will give the start to Daniel Cabrera who has been downright atrocious lately. In his last start for the Nationals he walked the bases loaded before proceeding to walk in two more runs for the 7^th and 8^th runs scored. He was pulled after that and Washington was unable to pull themselves out of the hole. For this game I think Cabrera would be extremely lucky to make it through 5 innings as I see him being pulled early on and replaced with another starter if need be. The Phillies, on the other hand, may want to display some confidence in their young pitcher and could very well leave him in even after 5 or 6 runs have been scored. The Nationals' batting is not a joke, especially with Carpenter on the mound, and for this game it will only be a question of whether their pitching can keep them in the game. I think Cabrera may turn things around, after all he did have a decent start against Philadelphia early in the season.

9) The Colorado Rockies are hoping to steal another game from the Pirates at PNC Park today with Aaron Cook on the mound. Cook has had a rocky start to the season, but has settled down in his past 3 starts on his way to a 5.03 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Those three games were against San Diego and Florida, so perhaps it was not a true test of his skill, but he should be able to handle the Pirates similarly giving up no more than 3 or 4 runs in 6 innings. Pittsburgh has been batting well, for them, over their past 3 games, with a .291 batting average and .388 slugging average. Compare that to their season batting average of .257 and .391 slugging average. Of course, those numbers, especially the slugging, are not so great for the Pirates at PNC Park where they are 9-9 this season. I think the Pirates' batters will be hoping pitcher Ian Snell will help out in making their job easier. Snell has had an up and down season already, posting a 7 inning 4 hit shutout of the Braves early in the season, only to be followed by 5 innings against the Padres giving up 3 earned runs. He hasn't had any truly awful starts aside from his first of the season against the Cardinals, and so I expect he will do alright against the Rockies. Facing the stronger bats Snell will have to hold Colorado down to give the Pirates a chance to win this game. I think this game will be close going into the 7^th inning and so either pick one makes will be as good as the other.

May 15th, 2009 Picks

Well, 1-2-0 today despite the good record for my blog. Started off the day with Leeds United. The Whites and Lions played to a standstill with the score level at nil-nil at the half. Leeds had the better scoring opportunities, but could not convert. It took less than 10 minutes for Luciano Becchio to slide across the goal line, booting home a cross, for Leeds to take a 1-0 lead. They looked strong enough to hold the lead but disaster struck with under 20 minutes remaining. A foul was called on Becchio and Millwall took the free kick out onto the wing. They played it down and towards the box and a fine cross and pass led to Abdou striking from a yard or two out. From there Millwall's defense was staunch and Leeds was unable to get any truly solid scoring opportunities. After 6 minutes of injury time Millwall advanced with a 1-1 draw and 2-1 aggregate victory.

My next pick was Rafer Alston's points and assists. Alston shot the ball poorly and the Magic did as a team overall. I thought the Magic also were shooting with poor confidence, hesitating when they did get a pass and being forced to dribble out of the shot. The clincher for Rondo was when he started making three pointers. The Celtics had 3 of them and Rondo made 2. He was also their leading rebounder. Damn Rondo, too bad Alston stole your pass and blocked your shot down the stretch or you guys might have won.

My final pick was the New York Mets. They took a lead in the first, gave it up in the 2^nd, got it back incrementally throughout the game to go up 4-2, then gave up those runs at the bottom of the 8^th before finally showing some clutch hitting and scoring 3 runs with 3 runners in scoring position. Rodriguez held on for the save, and Parnell got the dubious honor of being credited with a win and a blown save. So on to the picks.

1) Joe Ogilvie vs. Charley Hoffman – Hoffman cards a lower front 9 score
2) Tim Clark vs. John Mallinger – Mallinger cards a lower 2nd round score
3) Hunter Pence vs. Alfonso Soriano – Soriano records more total bases
4) Scunthorpe United @ Milton Keynes Dons – Milton Keynes Dons win
5) Castleford Tigers vs. Leeds Rhinos – 57 points or fewer
6) Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Colorado
7) Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays – Chicago
8) San Diego State @ Arizona State – 10 runs or more
9) Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers – Texas
10) Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals – Milwaukee
11) Kevin Johnson vs. Devin Vargas – 10 rounds or more
12) Jon Lester strikeouts vs. Seattle Mariners hits off Lester – Seattle hits off Lester
13) New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants – San Francisco

Analysis
1) Charley Hoffman could be considered to be the better golfer this year based on his stats. A look at Ogilvie's stats reveals Hoffman has a better scoring average and birdie average this year on the Tour. Ogilvie has more experience at the Valero Open at LaCantera, however, having played in the event 7 times in the past 8 years. He has done fairly well with two top 25 finishes, though he has missed the cut three times as well. Hoffman has considerably less experience having played the event the last three years only. In that short time he has a top 25 finish and a top 10 finish, though last year Ogilvie finished ahead of him by 8 strokes. As far as their front 9 performances Hoffman has carded the lower score in 7 of the 9 rounds they've both played. In the 23 rounds Ogilvie has played since 2001 his median score and most common score has been even par which he has carded 8 times. Hoffman has played 13 rounds since 2001, and has a median and most common score of -1, which he has carded 5 times. Ogilvie's front 9 scores have ranged from -5 to +3 while Hoffman's front 9 scores have ranged from -3 to +1. Hoffman has carded +1 only once in those 13 rounds while Ogilvie has carded front 9 scores over par in 7 of 23 rounds. I think the odds heavily favor Hoffman in this prop with Ogilvie only having a 38% chance of winning. That's still 38 times out of 100 he could be expected to win. If you think Ogilvie's +2 in the first round is a good sign for Hoffman to win keep in mind that in 2001 Ogilvie carded a +3 on the front 9 and followed it with a -5 in the second round. You can track the action by clicking on the image of the 7^th hole.
3) The Houston Astros visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs. We're interested in whether Hunter Pence or Alfonso Soriano records more total bases. Looking at the graphs above one can see that Pence has a higher proportion of games, both this season and last, with zero hits and hence zero total bases. We also see that Soriano has fewer games with one single, instead recording 2 or more total bases in 60.6% of his games. Pence has 2 or more total bases in 47% of his games this season. Including the games they played from last year Soriano had 2 or more total bases in 54.2% of his games while Pence had 2 or more total bases in 43.5% of his games. Clearly, Soriano is more likely to record a higher total base count. As for the pitching matchups Brian Moehler, pitching for the Astros, has an 8.44 ERA and 2.06 WHIP. In his first two starts he gave up 15 hits and 12 runs in 4 innings which drastically inflated his numbers. Since then he has pitched 12 innings, given up 13 hits and 3 runs. Randy Wells is a newcomer to the Majors, and so far has not disappointed with 5 scoreless innings under his belt. He pitched for Iowa in the Pacific Coast League this year before being called up where he had a 2.77 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 5 starts. Overall I think neither team has a great advantage in the pitching as Wells' inexperience may show through and Moehler is back on track for a 4.50 ERA that's been his calling card the past 12 seasons. I like Soriano in this matchup because he is a lead-off batter and will not be walked in that at bat, he is a long hitter so is more likely to hit doubles and home runs, and has fewer games than Pence without a hit. Oh, and keep in mind there is a good chance this game is rain delayed and/or postponed.

4) Milton Keynes Dons are literally infants in the world of English football. The club has only existed for 5 years. They were in line for automatic promotion to the Championship League late in the season but failed to get a win at home against 13^th place Walsall and missed out by 2 points. Scunthorpe United secured the bottom seed in the promotion playoffs with a 1-1 draw at home against Tranmere Rovers. A win by Tranmere in the match would have given the spot to the Rovers. Sky Sports carries a brief preview that highlights each team's injury concerns, but the previews from Scunthorpe United and MK Dons do a better job of it. Both sides are essentially unchanged from those that met in the first leg at Scunthorpe which ended as a 1-1 draw. Irons keeper Joe Murphy is mentioned as facing a late fitness test, but if he has been training with the team for a week he will play in this most important game of the season. The bookies at SkySports have MK Dons advancing after injury time with 5/6 odds (49%) while I calculated odds of about 23/10 (46%) for the Dons. I think the Dons have been the better side most of the season, but Scunthorpe has already won 2-0 once at Stadium:MK and seem to play their best football against the best competition.

6) The Colorado Rockies travel to PNC Park to face the Pittsburgh Pirates in a battle of two teams near the bottom of their divisions. Pittsburgh is coming off a 2-1 series over the St. Louis Cardinals after losing 8 straight games. In that series they batted .324 and had a .467 slugging average, about 30 points above their season average at PNC. The Rockies had a tougher time against the Houston Astros, going 1-2 despite outscoring their opponents 26 to 21 in the series. They batted .274 and had a .509 slugging average thanks to 6 home runs. Jorge De La Rosa will be on the mound for the Rockies today. He has a 3.53 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season. With 8.8 K/9 he strikes out many batters, but tends to keep the ball out of the lower half of the strike zone which limits the number of ground balls hit off of him. In his last outing, against the Florida Marlins, he had 12 strikeouts and walked only 1 batter while giving up 2 earned runs on 4 hits. Paul Maholm will be pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates. After starting out the season strong he has had a number of poor outings. In his last 4 starts he's pitched 23²/₃ innings and given up 18 earned runs on 31 hits. He's also walked nearly half as many batters as he's struck out. Maholm does not strike many batters out anyways so he'll be depending on the Rockies' bats to go cold for this game. I would say both teams likely to have quieter games offensively than they have been recently, especially with De La Rosa and Maholm pitching. Both teams have hit well off of the opposing starter in the past, but I think the pitchers will be winning the battles in this game. I think one team will need to have a big lead to assure victory since neither bullpen can be trusted to hold on for a save. With De La Rosa being more consistent and Colorado having the stronger offense this season I favor the Rockies to be the team to get that lead. If it's close through 6 innings, however, it will be anybody's ballgame.

7) The White Sox and Blue Jays are having problems winning games lately with Chicago going 3-7 in their last 10 and Toronto going 5-5. The Blue Jays especially have seen their offense disappear recently, batting .213 and slugging .351 in their last three games leading to all of 9 runs scored. Toronto could fairly be expected to rebound from that lack of production and have a huge game today, but their task will be made more difficult by the presence of John Danks. Danks has been pretty solid this season, with 4 of 6 quality starts resulting from a 3.41 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. His last two starts have seen him facing off against the powerful Texas Rangers batters. In one start, at Rangers Ballpark, he pitched for 5¹/₃ innings before being relieved after giving up 5 earned runs on 10 hits. At U.S. Cellular Field he did much better against the Rangers, going for 6 innings and allowing only 1 run off of 4 hits while striking out 10 batters. I expect Danks will continue to be difficult to get hits off of, especially big hits, even against Toronto at the Rogers Centre. The big x-factor in this game will be the pitching of Brett Cecil. In two starts this season Cecil is 1-0 with 1 run given up in 14 innings pitched. His 0.64 ERA and 0.93 WHIP are impressive for any pitcher in their first two Major league starts. It's questionable whether he'll be able to keep it up, however. In 4 starts with AAA Las Vegas this year he has an 0-3 record with an 8.47 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. I don't know why he did so poorly in Las Vegas, but it makes me question whether his fantastic start isn't about to come to a crashing halt. Both bullpens have been solid so this game will come down to whether Cecil can keep working his magic.

10) Kyle Lohse will take the mound tonight, and according this article he can be expected to pitch much better than he has in his previous two outings. In those games, against Cincinnati and Philadelphia, he got in 10¹/₃ innings total while giving up 13 earned runs from 16 hits. He gave up 3 home runs in those starts after being hit for the distance only once in his first 5 starts. The Cardinals are going to need a good performance against a Milwaukee Brewers team that is batting .280 and slugging .559 in their past three games thanks to power hits such as Weeks, Braun, and Fielder. Having Yovani Gallardo in the lineup tonight won't hurt either. He has a .235 batting average and is slugging .588 with two home runs in 7 games. His pitching isn't bad either, with a 3.09 ERA and 1.05 WHIP this season. He's had 6 quality starts this season, including his last game where he limited the Cubs to 2 earned runs on 5 hits in 5 innings. His only bad outing this season came on April 13^th when the Reds touched him up for 7 earned runs off of 3 hits. Yeah, he gave up a couple of big home runs after walking batters on to base. Although the Cardinals are bound to get out of their hitting slump soon I think Gallardo can be counted on to keep things under control. As long as the Brewers can provide him with 3 or 4 runs in support I like the Brewers to win this game handily. If you think Lohse will be back in form and shutting teams down again then I would recommend the Cardinals.

12) Jon Lester is having a pretty good start to his season so far, at least in terms of striking out batters. Through 7 starts he's averaging 7 strikeouts per game, and has already matched his season high last year with 10 strikeouts in one game. Even with the fast start Lester has given up more hits than gotten strikeouts in 3 of 7 games. He's given up 7 hits and had 7 strikeouts twice, and he's struck out more batters than given up hits in the two other games. Last season Lester averaged 4.8 strikeouts per game and struck out more batters in 11 of his 33 starts. Now that he's averaging more strikeouts I suppose one could assume he would give up fewer hits more often, but I doubt his average will stay that high all season. In the graph below there is a faint gray dotted line that represents the Mariners' hits game-by-game this season. The blue line beneath shows ³/₄ of those hits each game, assuming a team gets 75% of their hits off of the starting pitcher. The straight dotted lines represent Lester's single game max over the past two seasons (10) and the lower dotted line is his average number of strikeouts over his past 40 starts (5.2). If Lester has an exceptional game and matches his high he will probably win this prop. But if he is within one or two of his 40 game average I think the Mariners have a good shot. In the end it will probably be close with Seattle getting 5-8 hits and Lester striking out 4-9 batters. I have to give the edge to the Mariners, however, with the game being played in Seattle.

May 14th, 2009 Picks

2-1-0 today. Started off rough with the New York Mets choking things away. They fell behind by 2 after the 1^st but got the runs right back at the bottom of the inning. They fell behind again, but got the lead back with a grand slam by Tatis in the 4^th. Sheffield equalized the score again with a solo shot but they were unable to drive home Church at second with 1 out, so the game went into extra innings. In the 10^th inning Beltran was at second with 1 out, but this time Tatis ground into a double play. Eventually Takahashi gave up a solo home run to Prado in the 12^th inning and that proved to be the difference.

My next pick was the Florida Marlins to hit the first home run of the game. I was pleasantly surprised to see Chris Coghlan hit a two run homer, and even more pleased when I found out it was his ninth at bat in the Majors. It got sickeningly sweet when Weeks hit a lead off home run with the first pitch thrown to the Brewers.

The last pick was Denver Nuggets' winning margin. The Nuggets did their part by getting a double digit lead in the first quarter and holding on to it for the rest of the game. The drama was taken out of the prop with Jason Terry totaling zero points and zero rebounds until sometime in the third quarter. He finished the game with one each and the Nuggets won their series with a 14 point win. So on to the fucking picks.

1) Alex Cejka vs. Rich Beem – Cejka cards a lower front 9 score
2) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Los Angeles
3) Chad Campbell vs. Justin Leonard – Leonard cards a lower 1st round score
4) Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers – Texas
5) Millwall @ Leeds United – Leeds United win
6) Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
7) Rajon Rondo vs. Rafer Alston – Alston pts. and ast.
8) Detroit Goals Scored: 3 or fewer vs. 4 or more – 4 or more
9) New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
10) Carolina Hurricanes @ Boston Bruins – Carolina
11) Pau Gasol vs. Ron Artest – Gasol pts.
12) New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants – New York

Analysis
1) Today's front 9 prop takes us to the Resort Course and LaCantera Golf Club in San Antonio, Texas. The course has been set at par 70 as it is already known for the low scores achievable on it. The official website's course tour seems a bit lacking with a clunky interface and tiny pictures of each hole, but from what I could see it looks like there are fairly wide fairways and a lack of bunkers guarding each green. Water hazards are scarce, and in general it appears that an aggressive game will pay dividends. I don't think either player has a particular advantage here, based on driving distance and accuracy. You can look at Rich Beem's stats and Alex Cejka's stats by clicking on the links. Rich Beem has a 71.05 scoring average compared to Cejka's 71.45 scoring average, so neither player has been all that terrific this year. Cejka and Beem have each played 12 rounds at LaCantera since 2005. Cejka's median score on the front 9 is a -1, and his most common score is -2. Beem's median score is a -1 as well, but he has carded -2 and +1 an equal number of times. Cejka has scored anywhere from -4 to +4, while Beem has carded scores as low as -3 and as high as +3. I would give Cejka a 48% chance of winning this prop, Beem a 38% chance, and the push a 14% chance of occurring. Those odds are based on the frequency of their front 9 scores since 2005 and by assuming their median and most common scores are most likely and that scores 'N' strokes off of those are 2^-N times as likely.

2) Chad Billingsley is a rare pitcher who has started out his season with seven straight quality starts. He's garnered a 2.45 ERA and 1.13 WHIP this season never giving up more than 3 earned runs and 8 hits in a game. Of course, 5 of those starts have come against the Padres and the Giants, so he will be facing his first major test against the Phillies. Fortunately, or not, the Phillies have been in a batting slump lately. In their past three games they have a .185 batting average and a .315 slugging average. One has to think that is going to end, and soon, so Billingsley may find himself in for a tough start, giving up 4 or 5 earned runs by the 5^th inning. Cole Hamels will be trying to prevent Billingsley from getting the run support he will need as Hamels seeks his fourth consecutive solid outing after starting out the season with a variety of injuries. His last outing was a 6 inning, 2 earned run, 3 hit domination of the Atlanta Braves. For good measure he struck out 7 batters and walked only 2. The Dodgers have done well in their past three games without Manny Ramirez, batting .295 and slugging .434, but it's clear their batting order is not as strong without Ramirez. Against Hamels I think they can be expected to struggle. I think Philadelphia looks like a very good pick here, but I cannot pick against a top pitcher like Billingsley when Hamels is 50% likely to strain a weak adductor muscle injury.

5) Millwall is up 1-0 in aggregate on Leeds United after their first leg match at The New Den. Now the Lions visit Leeds United at their home ground to decide who will go on to Wembley for the championship match and a chance at promotion to the English Championship. Leeds United are on an 11 game winning streak at home, not having lost since January 10^th, 0-2 to Carlisle United. Overall this season they are 20-3-4 at home in all competitions. In League One competition they are 17-4-2 at home, and have outscored their opposition 49 to 20. Millwall are 14-3-9 away in any competition, and 12-3-8 in League One. In those 23 league matches they have barely outscored their opponents, 33 to 32. They have lost their last three away matches, each time by 2 goals, and most recently 0-2 away at Carlisle United. Leeds United are at full strength with their manager able to select his strongest team possible. Millwall F.C. are also at full strength, essentially, with only striker Jason Price to miss out. The rivalry between these two teams is very heated with scenes of mayhem not uncommon. I have to think Leeds United fans will be out of their minds for this match. With Leeds United in good home form, and Millwall in recent poor away form the advantage is to Leeds. I calculated odds of Leeds winning at 50.4%, though oddsmakers have them at closer to 56.2%. As this prop involves injury time only, and not extra time, Millwall can feel good about losing by 1 goal and still have a chance in extra time to advance to Wembley.

6) The Los Angeles Angels welcome back pitcher Ervin Santana who is starting for the first time this year after sustaining an elbow injury. Last season Santana pitched for 219 innings and accrued an ERA of 3.49 and a 1.12 WHIP, very good numbers for a regular rotation guy. He has had a tough time against Boston, however. In 75 at bats the Red Sox have a .320 batting average and .533 slugging average, though they only have 1 home run. There is a big question about whether Santana will be in form immediately, and especially against Boston, though hopes are high. The Angels have batted .267 in their last three games but have slugged only .344 so they still have room to improve. They have been getting hits up and down the order lately though, so even with those relatively mediocre batting numbers they've been scoring runs. Boston has been struggling even more so, with a .229 batting average and .365 slugging average in their last three games. I think they will up those numbers against a recovering pitcher who they've had success against while healthy. On the other side will be Brad Penny who has not had a good season thus far. With a 1.77 WHIP he's lucky to have only a 6.90 ERA. He has settled down a bit from the start of the season, having not allowed a home run for two games after giving at least one up in each of his first 4 starts. His last two starts, both against Tampa Bay, have been decent, giving up 6 earned runs in 12¹/₃ innings pitched and 14 hits total while striking out 10 batters and walking only 4. I think the Angels enjoy playing at home and will make life hard for Penny in this game. As long as Santana is even halfway healthy enough to play I think the Angels' bats will keep them in this game and give them the lead by the time the bullpens come into play. Los Angeles' relievers have not had a great season, but they have settled down lately and should be able to deliver a save.
7) Rajon Rondo and the Boston Celtics travel to Orlando to attempt to close out their series in 6 games. The Orlando Magic should be plenty motivated for this game after losing Game 4 on a last second shot by Glen Davis, and giving up a 14 point lead in the fourth quarter of Game 5. Looking at the graph above it's clear that Rafer Alston has the advantage in this matchup. He has averaged 17.5 points and assists in home games this year and 16.9 since joining the Orlando Magic. Rajon Rondo, on the other hand, has averaged 11.9 points on the road this year. Against the Magic his numbers have been better with 13.5 points per game in Orlando. That production has been bolstered by his recent playoff performance, scoring 15 and 21 points in Orlando, whereas during the season he scored 9 points in two games there. Rafer Alston is averaging 14.3 points and assists per game against Boston, but only 9.5 in games at Orlando. I still like Alston in this prop as Rondo tends to have a difficult time scoring against smaller, quicker guards. Most of his higher scoring performances came against larger guards such as Deron Williams and Jason Kidd. I also think Orlando will be fired up for this game with the Celtics confident in being able to close out the series at home. Looking at the bar graphs one can see that Alston has over 15 points and assists in 70% his home games. Rondo has scored over 15 points in only 25% of his road games. It will take yet another spectacular game from Rondo to win this prop, and he could do it, but I think Alston is far more likely to win 17-12 than the other way around.

8) It's Game 7 of the series between the Detroit Red Wings and the Anaheim Ducks. It's been a very close series, at least when Anaheim has won. Twice they've won 2-1 and of course there was the triple overtime Game 2 Ducks victory. The Red Wings won Game 1 with a 3-2 score, but the other two wins have been fairly decisive at 6-3 and 4-2. Jonas Hiller has been amazing in these playoffs, but clearly not invincible with Detroit scoring 4 goals on him in two of their three wins. Looking at the graphs to the right Detroit has scored 4 goals or more in 22 of their 31 home wins this season and in the playoffs. The bar graph for Hiller shows how many games he has given up 4 goals or more in road losses. The number of games has been normalized to 31 for comparison with the Red Wings' numbers. In reality he has only tended the net in 11 road losses for the Ducks this year, giving up 4 or more goals in 6 of them. The white line represents the number of games Detroit is expected to score a certain number of goals in a win based on their average from this year. The black line represents Hiller's road goals against. One can see the Red Wings are equally likely to score 3 or 4, though they have scored 4 more often. One can also see Hiller is most likely to allow 3 goals in a road loss, though he has given up 4 most often. It looks very close, but the past results from the season suggest that 4 goals will be the total for Detroit.

11) With Yao Ming out of the lineup the task of guarding Pau Gasol has fallen to Carl Landry. He's giving up a few inches, but he did well the past two games in keeping Gasol out of the lane. At least as well as could be expected. Gasol has scored 30 and 16 points in the two games missing Yao, 30 points in the blowout loss in Houston and 16 in the blowout win at home. Overall this season Gasol has averaged 19.4 points on the road, and 18.5 points against the Rockets. By comparison Artest has not done so well, averaging 16.9 points at home and 14.7 points at home against the Lakers. One might think that having Yao out of the lineup would place more of the scoring load on Artest, but he has scored only 8 and 9 points in the two games since Yao's injury. I think the Rockets' move to a smaller, quicker lineup has shifted the scoring focus away from forwards Scola and Artest and more onto Brooks and Battier. Even with Houston fired up for this game and Landry doing a fine job on Gasol I think Pau is just too coordinated, too quick, and too good to score fewer than 15 points. Artest has scored less than 10 for two straight games.