May 16th, 2009 Picks

3-1-0 today after a rocky start with Hoffman. I woke up to discover he’d hit his first tee shot out into the few trees that are on the course, then overhit the green, then underhit his chip shot, and finally ended up with a 6 stroke bogey. Ogilvie hit par, and they continued to hit par through to the 8^th hole where they both hit birdie. Another par was on the menu for each on the 9^th hole and Ogilvie won the prop by 1 stroke, 34 to 35.

My second pick was 57 points or fewer in the Rugby League match between the Castleford Tigers and Leeds Rhinos. There was a flurry of scoring to start the match, 22 points in the first 15 minutes, which put them on pace to score 117, but the defenses hardened up. By the end of the match there were 46 points with Leeds winning 24 to 22 on a last moment drop kick.

My third pick was the Colorado Rockies. It was a clear pitchers duel for a while before De La Rosa gave up a single, a stolen base, and an RBI single all with two outs, to put Colorado down 1-0. Colorado missed on a great scoring opportunity with men on 1^st and 3^rd and no outs when Tulowitzki flied out and Smith was caught running before the catch for the double play. Capps came in for the save in the 9^th inning and immediately gave up a ground rule double and a 2 run homer to Hawpe. He gave up an RBI single to Multon to put Colorado up 3-1. Street came in for the Rockies and proceeded to strike out three batters to get the save. Maholm got a no decision and Capps got the loss.

My fourth pick was the Seattle Mariners to get more hits off of Lester than strikeouts Lester would record. Through the first 4 innings the Mariners had 3 hits and were struck out 3 times. Lester took the lead briefly and was up 5 to 4 going into the 6^th inning. There he gave up two singles, followed by a 2 RBI single and a 2 run homer to put himself down 8 to 5 in the prop and the Red Sox down 5 to 4 and that was it for Lester. So on to the picks.

1) Jonathan Kaye vs. Charlie Wi – Wi cards a lower front 9 score
2) Fulham @ Newcastle United – Fulham win or draw
3) Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs – Chicago
4) Paul Goydos vs. Justin Leonard – Goydos cards a lower 3^rd round score
5) Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers – Texas
6) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Florida Marlins – Florida
7) Preakness Stakes: Rachel Alexandra finishes 1^st or 2^nd vs. 3^rd or worse – 1^st or 2^nd
8) Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals – Washington
9) Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh
10) Oakland Athletics @ Detroit Tigers - Detroit
11) Colorado @ New England – New England win
12) Cincinnati Reds vs. Boston Red Sox – Cincinnati wins by more runs

Analysis
1) Charlie Wi is on pace to have his most successful year on the Tour since he debuted in 2002 with three top 10 finishes in his first 11 events netting him over $900,000. Jonathan Kaye debuted on the Tour in 1995 and saw marginal success but saw gradual improvement. In 2003 he had his greatest year, earning just over $2.4 million from 27 events. Since then he has gradually declined, and has just one top 25 finish from 8 events earning him $107,000. You can view Charlie Wi's stats on pgatour.com and compare them to Jonathan Kaye's stats. Wi has superior numbers in categories such as driving accuracy, putting average, scoring average, and birdie average. Jonathan Kaye has played 12 rounds at the Resort Course for this event since 2001, this year, in 2005, 2002, and 2001. He missed the cut once, and in those 12 rounds he has a median front 9 score of even par and his most common score has been even par, carding 35 in 5 of the 12 rounds. He has carded scores under par on the front 9 only twice in those 12 rounds, including his -1 yesterday. Charlie Wi is playing in this event for the fourth time in his career. He has played 12 rounds, missing the cut once, and has a median front 9 score of -1 and his most common score is also -1, carding a 34 in 4 of his 12 rounds. He has been under par 7 times and over par 3 times. Jonathan Kaye's front 9 scores have ranged from 34 to 37, while Charlie Wi has carded anywhere from 31 to 38. Assuming Kaye could score anywhere from -3 to +3 and Wi could score anywhere from -4 to +4 with their median and most common scores being most likely I have Wi as a heavy favorite at 51% to win and Kaye at 33% to win. I do not favor Kaye to handle the increased difficulty of the course well, and do not think Wi will double bogey a par 3 this round by hitting into a ravine.

2) Fulham F.C. visit St. James' Park to take on Newcastle United. The Magpies are fighting to stay clear of relegation, Fulham are attempting to secure a place in next year's Europa League with 7^th place and the football world is holding their breath with anticipation for this match. Both sides are coming off of crucial home victories with Newcastle winning at St. James' for the first time since Christmas, 3-1 over Middlesbrough. Fulham defeated Aston Villa 3-1 at Craven Cottage. Both sides have some injury concerns. Newcastle United will be without the services of defender Jose Enrique, and Joey Barton remains suspended while Fulham will be missing Simon Davies. All of these players missed their clubs previous victories, so success can be found without them. Another review by Fulham supporters notes Giles Barnes is definitely out for this match, though he has not figured for Fulham since January. Fulham will also be returning Andrew Johnson and Bobby Zamora, though their replacements, Diomansy Kamara (2 goals against Aston Villa) and Erik Nevland (1 goal at Chelsea) have been playing well enough to warrant a place in the starting XI. Setanta Sports note that Fulham have conceded fewer goals than any side in the Premiership excepting Liverpool, Chelsea, and Manchester United. SkySports carries a rather pessimistic preview for Newcastle United noting there is no rivalry aspect as with Middlesbrough. A review by some Toons notes Newcastle has won two matches consecutively only once this season. FootyMAD carry detailed head to head results. Of note, Fulham have won 5 of the last 8 meetings with Newcastle United. Finally BBC Sports has a terrific review with plethora of statistics including best and worst performances by each side and detailed club statistics. Essentially, and not surprisingly, Fulham are the better side statistically as might be expected of a team knocking on Europe's door instead of attempting to escape relegation. Newcastle United may be motivated by their first home win of the calendar year, but Fulham have been in good form as well and return two of their top players for this match. I think Fulham's discipline and tactical play will see them through to a win, 1-0.

3) After their game yesterday was rained out the Chicago Cubs have decided to give young Randy Wells the start today instead. The Houston Astros have opted to hold off on Moehler pitching and will be going with perennial Cy Young candidate Roy Oswalt. Oswalt has had a decent start to the season for the average pitcher, but a 4.50 ERA and 1.34 WHIP are definitely sub-par numbers for him. He has had two very nice starts, both against the Reds this season, but otherwise has given up 3 runs or more in every start. He pitched against Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs in his first start and did decently, giving up 3 earned runs in and 7 hits in 7 innings in a losing effort. His past two starts have not gone as well as that even, against Washington and San Diego. In those starts he has pitched for 11 innings and given up only 10 hits, but those hits have led to 9 earned runs being scored with three being home runs. That is not good news for Oswalt as he faces the Cubs for the second time this season, this time at Wrigley Park. Chicago has been batting .302 and slugging .635 in their last three games, thanks to 6 home runs and countless doubles in their series against the Padres. It would be easier to expect Oswalt to have a good outing against the Cubs who are sure to quiet down at the plate, except he has more mediocre and poor outings than good ones this season. The Houston Astros also have the hot bats lately, batting .352 and slugging .443 in their last 3 games. In one of those games they had 24 hits, but nearly all singles. They are sure to quiet down a bit at the plate as well, but one has to give them a good shot at staying hot against Randy Wells. Wells has 5 major league innings under his belt this season, giving up 5 hits and zero earned runs. He was pretty good for AAA Iowa also, pitching 26 innings and recording a 2.77 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. I think for the Astros to have a chance they need Oswalt to limit the Cubs to 2 or 3 runs, though even that may not be enough if Wells excels on the mound also. I think Chicago will have an advantage at Wrigley Field and will be able to make up a 2 run deficit if they have to. Still, if Wells gets shelled the Astros will be in a very good position to win.

6) The Florida Marlins seek to stop a 5 game slide that has seen them go ahead only to end up losing in game after game. The Los Angeles Dodgers won't give them an easy time of it. After starting out rough with the loss of Manny Ramirez they appear to have found their groove, winning three straight and scoring 20 runs in those wins. They've batted .342 and have a .570 slugging average in those wins, so it's clear they have their confidence back. One might expect the Dodgers to slump a bit at the plate some time soon, but they will be facing Andrew Miller. Miller is coming off a rehab stint with AA Jacksonville where he performed very well. Facing the Dodgers may be giving him nightmares, however. In two games last season against the Dodgers he gave up 6 runs in 3 innings and 7 runs in 1²/₃ innings in another. I do think he'll do better in this game, but he has next to zero chance of shutting out L.A. completely. For the Dodgers Eric Milton will be pitching for the first time this season after a successful 7 game stint with AAA Albuquerque. He will face a weak Marlins offense that has been actually doing fairly well lately. In their last 3 games they're batting .235 and slugging .431, which is not very good but a bit above average for the Marlins this season. I think this will be a fairly high scoring game, and I like Miller to pitch better as he has more experience this season, whereas Milton has pitched some this year in AAA, and before that 6 games in the Majors in 2007 along with some more minor league ball. The Marlins will need to have a breakout performance to win this game, so a safer bet is probably on the Dodgers. I just have a feeling the Marlins will pull off a victory at home for once.

8) The Philadelphia Phillies attempt their most recent three game sweep of the Washington Nationals in the second game of a double header. They just won the first game 8 to 5 behind strong hitting from the top two-thirds of their order. For the second game they will call upon the services of Andrew Carpenter, who has been putting in fairly ho-hum performances for AAA Lehigh Valley with a 4.76 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 6 starts for them. He's also given up 6 home runs in that time. Happ was scheduled to pitch for this game, but a 12 inning duel forced him to pitch and left him unavailable for this game. The Washington Nationals will give the start to Daniel Cabrera who has been downright atrocious lately. In his last start for the Nationals he walked the bases loaded before proceeding to walk in two more runs for the 7^th and 8^th runs scored. He was pulled after that and Washington was unable to pull themselves out of the hole. For this game I think Cabrera would be extremely lucky to make it through 5 innings as I see him being pulled early on and replaced with another starter if need be. The Phillies, on the other hand, may want to display some confidence in their young pitcher and could very well leave him in even after 5 or 6 runs have been scored. The Nationals' batting is not a joke, especially with Carpenter on the mound, and for this game it will only be a question of whether their pitching can keep them in the game. I think Cabrera may turn things around, after all he did have a decent start against Philadelphia early in the season.

9) The Colorado Rockies are hoping to steal another game from the Pirates at PNC Park today with Aaron Cook on the mound. Cook has had a rocky start to the season, but has settled down in his past 3 starts on his way to a 5.03 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Those three games were against San Diego and Florida, so perhaps it was not a true test of his skill, but he should be able to handle the Pirates similarly giving up no more than 3 or 4 runs in 6 innings. Pittsburgh has been batting well, for them, over their past 3 games, with a .291 batting average and .388 slugging average. Compare that to their season batting average of .257 and .391 slugging average. Of course, those numbers, especially the slugging, are not so great for the Pirates at PNC Park where they are 9-9 this season. I think the Pirates' batters will be hoping pitcher Ian Snell will help out in making their job easier. Snell has had an up and down season already, posting a 7 inning 4 hit shutout of the Braves early in the season, only to be followed by 5 innings against the Padres giving up 3 earned runs. He hasn't had any truly awful starts aside from his first of the season against the Cardinals, and so I expect he will do alright against the Rockies. Facing the stronger bats Snell will have to hold Colorado down to give the Pirates a chance to win this game. I think this game will be close going into the 7^th inning and so either pick one makes will be as good as the other.

May 15th, 2009 Picks

Well, 1-2-0 today despite the good record for my blog. Started off the day with Leeds United. The Whites and Lions played to a standstill with the score level at nil-nil at the half. Leeds had the better scoring opportunities, but could not convert. It took less than 10 minutes for Luciano Becchio to slide across the goal line, booting home a cross, for Leeds to take a 1-0 lead. They looked strong enough to hold the lead but disaster struck with under 20 minutes remaining. A foul was called on Becchio and Millwall took the free kick out onto the wing. They played it down and towards the box and a fine cross and pass led to Abdou striking from a yard or two out. From there Millwall's defense was staunch and Leeds was unable to get any truly solid scoring opportunities. After 6 minutes of injury time Millwall advanced with a 1-1 draw and 2-1 aggregate victory.

My next pick was Rafer Alston's points and assists. Alston shot the ball poorly and the Magic did as a team overall. I thought the Magic also were shooting with poor confidence, hesitating when they did get a pass and being forced to dribble out of the shot. The clincher for Rondo was when he started making three pointers. The Celtics had 3 of them and Rondo made 2. He was also their leading rebounder. Damn Rondo, too bad Alston stole your pass and blocked your shot down the stretch or you guys might have won.

My final pick was the New York Mets. They took a lead in the first, gave it up in the 2^nd, got it back incrementally throughout the game to go up 4-2, then gave up those runs at the bottom of the 8^th before finally showing some clutch hitting and scoring 3 runs with 3 runners in scoring position. Rodriguez held on for the save, and Parnell got the dubious honor of being credited with a win and a blown save. So on to the picks.

1) Joe Ogilvie vs. Charley Hoffman – Hoffman cards a lower front 9 score
2) Tim Clark vs. John Mallinger – Mallinger cards a lower 2nd round score
3) Hunter Pence vs. Alfonso Soriano – Soriano records more total bases
4) Scunthorpe United @ Milton Keynes Dons – Milton Keynes Dons win
5) Castleford Tigers vs. Leeds Rhinos – 57 points or fewer
6) Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Colorado
7) Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays – Chicago
8) San Diego State @ Arizona State – 10 runs or more
9) Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers – Texas
10) Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals – Milwaukee
11) Kevin Johnson vs. Devin Vargas – 10 rounds or more
12) Jon Lester strikeouts vs. Seattle Mariners hits off Lester – Seattle hits off Lester
13) New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants – San Francisco

Analysis
1) Charley Hoffman could be considered to be the better golfer this year based on his stats. A look at Ogilvie's stats reveals Hoffman has a better scoring average and birdie average this year on the Tour. Ogilvie has more experience at the Valero Open at LaCantera, however, having played in the event 7 times in the past 8 years. He has done fairly well with two top 25 finishes, though he has missed the cut three times as well. Hoffman has considerably less experience having played the event the last three years only. In that short time he has a top 25 finish and a top 10 finish, though last year Ogilvie finished ahead of him by 8 strokes. As far as their front 9 performances Hoffman has carded the lower score in 7 of the 9 rounds they've both played. In the 23 rounds Ogilvie has played since 2001 his median score and most common score has been even par which he has carded 8 times. Hoffman has played 13 rounds since 2001, and has a median and most common score of -1, which he has carded 5 times. Ogilvie's front 9 scores have ranged from -5 to +3 while Hoffman's front 9 scores have ranged from -3 to +1. Hoffman has carded +1 only once in those 13 rounds while Ogilvie has carded front 9 scores over par in 7 of 23 rounds. I think the odds heavily favor Hoffman in this prop with Ogilvie only having a 38% chance of winning. That's still 38 times out of 100 he could be expected to win. If you think Ogilvie's +2 in the first round is a good sign for Hoffman to win keep in mind that in 2001 Ogilvie carded a +3 on the front 9 and followed it with a -5 in the second round. You can track the action by clicking on the image of the 7^th hole.
3) The Houston Astros visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs. We're interested in whether Hunter Pence or Alfonso Soriano records more total bases. Looking at the graphs above one can see that Pence has a higher proportion of games, both this season and last, with zero hits and hence zero total bases. We also see that Soriano has fewer games with one single, instead recording 2 or more total bases in 60.6% of his games. Pence has 2 or more total bases in 47% of his games this season. Including the games they played from last year Soriano had 2 or more total bases in 54.2% of his games while Pence had 2 or more total bases in 43.5% of his games. Clearly, Soriano is more likely to record a higher total base count. As for the pitching matchups Brian Moehler, pitching for the Astros, has an 8.44 ERA and 2.06 WHIP. In his first two starts he gave up 15 hits and 12 runs in 4 innings which drastically inflated his numbers. Since then he has pitched 12 innings, given up 13 hits and 3 runs. Randy Wells is a newcomer to the Majors, and so far has not disappointed with 5 scoreless innings under his belt. He pitched for Iowa in the Pacific Coast League this year before being called up where he had a 2.77 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 5 starts. Overall I think neither team has a great advantage in the pitching as Wells' inexperience may show through and Moehler is back on track for a 4.50 ERA that's been his calling card the past 12 seasons. I like Soriano in this matchup because he is a lead-off batter and will not be walked in that at bat, he is a long hitter so is more likely to hit doubles and home runs, and has fewer games than Pence without a hit. Oh, and keep in mind there is a good chance this game is rain delayed and/or postponed.

4) Milton Keynes Dons are literally infants in the world of English football. The club has only existed for 5 years. They were in line for automatic promotion to the Championship League late in the season but failed to get a win at home against 13^th place Walsall and missed out by 2 points. Scunthorpe United secured the bottom seed in the promotion playoffs with a 1-1 draw at home against Tranmere Rovers. A win by Tranmere in the match would have given the spot to the Rovers. Sky Sports carries a brief preview that highlights each team's injury concerns, but the previews from Scunthorpe United and MK Dons do a better job of it. Both sides are essentially unchanged from those that met in the first leg at Scunthorpe which ended as a 1-1 draw. Irons keeper Joe Murphy is mentioned as facing a late fitness test, but if he has been training with the team for a week he will play in this most important game of the season. The bookies at SkySports have MK Dons advancing after injury time with 5/6 odds (49%) while I calculated odds of about 23/10 (46%) for the Dons. I think the Dons have been the better side most of the season, but Scunthorpe has already won 2-0 once at Stadium:MK and seem to play their best football against the best competition.

6) The Colorado Rockies travel to PNC Park to face the Pittsburgh Pirates in a battle of two teams near the bottom of their divisions. Pittsburgh is coming off a 2-1 series over the St. Louis Cardinals after losing 8 straight games. In that series they batted .324 and had a .467 slugging average, about 30 points above their season average at PNC. The Rockies had a tougher time against the Houston Astros, going 1-2 despite outscoring their opponents 26 to 21 in the series. They batted .274 and had a .509 slugging average thanks to 6 home runs. Jorge De La Rosa will be on the mound for the Rockies today. He has a 3.53 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season. With 8.8 K/9 he strikes out many batters, but tends to keep the ball out of the lower half of the strike zone which limits the number of ground balls hit off of him. In his last outing, against the Florida Marlins, he had 12 strikeouts and walked only 1 batter while giving up 2 earned runs on 4 hits. Paul Maholm will be pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates. After starting out the season strong he has had a number of poor outings. In his last 4 starts he's pitched 23²/₃ innings and given up 18 earned runs on 31 hits. He's also walked nearly half as many batters as he's struck out. Maholm does not strike many batters out anyways so he'll be depending on the Rockies' bats to go cold for this game. I would say both teams likely to have quieter games offensively than they have been recently, especially with De La Rosa and Maholm pitching. Both teams have hit well off of the opposing starter in the past, but I think the pitchers will be winning the battles in this game. I think one team will need to have a big lead to assure victory since neither bullpen can be trusted to hold on for a save. With De La Rosa being more consistent and Colorado having the stronger offense this season I favor the Rockies to be the team to get that lead. If it's close through 6 innings, however, it will be anybody's ballgame.

7) The White Sox and Blue Jays are having problems winning games lately with Chicago going 3-7 in their last 10 and Toronto going 5-5. The Blue Jays especially have seen their offense disappear recently, batting .213 and slugging .351 in their last three games leading to all of 9 runs scored. Toronto could fairly be expected to rebound from that lack of production and have a huge game today, but their task will be made more difficult by the presence of John Danks. Danks has been pretty solid this season, with 4 of 6 quality starts resulting from a 3.41 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. His last two starts have seen him facing off against the powerful Texas Rangers batters. In one start, at Rangers Ballpark, he pitched for 5¹/₃ innings before being relieved after giving up 5 earned runs on 10 hits. At U.S. Cellular Field he did much better against the Rangers, going for 6 innings and allowing only 1 run off of 4 hits while striking out 10 batters. I expect Danks will continue to be difficult to get hits off of, especially big hits, even against Toronto at the Rogers Centre. The big x-factor in this game will be the pitching of Brett Cecil. In two starts this season Cecil is 1-0 with 1 run given up in 14 innings pitched. His 0.64 ERA and 0.93 WHIP are impressive for any pitcher in their first two Major league starts. It's questionable whether he'll be able to keep it up, however. In 4 starts with AAA Las Vegas this year he has an 0-3 record with an 8.47 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. I don't know why he did so poorly in Las Vegas, but it makes me question whether his fantastic start isn't about to come to a crashing halt. Both bullpens have been solid so this game will come down to whether Cecil can keep working his magic.

10) Kyle Lohse will take the mound tonight, and according this article he can be expected to pitch much better than he has in his previous two outings. In those games, against Cincinnati and Philadelphia, he got in 10¹/₃ innings total while giving up 13 earned runs from 16 hits. He gave up 3 home runs in those starts after being hit for the distance only once in his first 5 starts. The Cardinals are going to need a good performance against a Milwaukee Brewers team that is batting .280 and slugging .559 in their past three games thanks to power hits such as Weeks, Braun, and Fielder. Having Yovani Gallardo in the lineup tonight won't hurt either. He has a .235 batting average and is slugging .588 with two home runs in 7 games. His pitching isn't bad either, with a 3.09 ERA and 1.05 WHIP this season. He's had 6 quality starts this season, including his last game where he limited the Cubs to 2 earned runs on 5 hits in 5 innings. His only bad outing this season came on April 13^th when the Reds touched him up for 7 earned runs off of 3 hits. Yeah, he gave up a couple of big home runs after walking batters on to base. Although the Cardinals are bound to get out of their hitting slump soon I think Gallardo can be counted on to keep things under control. As long as the Brewers can provide him with 3 or 4 runs in support I like the Brewers to win this game handily. If you think Lohse will be back in form and shutting teams down again then I would recommend the Cardinals.

12) Jon Lester is having a pretty good start to his season so far, at least in terms of striking out batters. Through 7 starts he's averaging 7 strikeouts per game, and has already matched his season high last year with 10 strikeouts in one game. Even with the fast start Lester has given up more hits than gotten strikeouts in 3 of 7 games. He's given up 7 hits and had 7 strikeouts twice, and he's struck out more batters than given up hits in the two other games. Last season Lester averaged 4.8 strikeouts per game and struck out more batters in 11 of his 33 starts. Now that he's averaging more strikeouts I suppose one could assume he would give up fewer hits more often, but I doubt his average will stay that high all season. In the graph below there is a faint gray dotted line that represents the Mariners' hits game-by-game this season. The blue line beneath shows ³/₄ of those hits each game, assuming a team gets 75% of their hits off of the starting pitcher. The straight dotted lines represent Lester's single game max over the past two seasons (10) and the lower dotted line is his average number of strikeouts over his past 40 starts (5.2). If Lester has an exceptional game and matches his high he will probably win this prop. But if he is within one or two of his 40 game average I think the Mariners have a good shot. In the end it will probably be close with Seattle getting 5-8 hits and Lester striking out 4-9 batters. I have to give the edge to the Mariners, however, with the game being played in Seattle.

May 14th, 2009 Picks

2-1-0 today. Started off rough with the New York Mets choking things away. They fell behind by 2 after the 1^st but got the runs right back at the bottom of the inning. They fell behind again, but got the lead back with a grand slam by Tatis in the 4^th. Sheffield equalized the score again with a solo shot but they were unable to drive home Church at second with 1 out, so the game went into extra innings. In the 10^th inning Beltran was at second with 1 out, but this time Tatis ground into a double play. Eventually Takahashi gave up a solo home run to Prado in the 12^th inning and that proved to be the difference.

My next pick was the Florida Marlins to hit the first home run of the game. I was pleasantly surprised to see Chris Coghlan hit a two run homer, and even more pleased when I found out it was his ninth at bat in the Majors. It got sickeningly sweet when Weeks hit a lead off home run with the first pitch thrown to the Brewers.

The last pick was Denver Nuggets' winning margin. The Nuggets did their part by getting a double digit lead in the first quarter and holding on to it for the rest of the game. The drama was taken out of the prop with Jason Terry totaling zero points and zero rebounds until sometime in the third quarter. He finished the game with one each and the Nuggets won their series with a 14 point win. So on to the fucking picks.

1) Alex Cejka vs. Rich Beem – Cejka cards a lower front 9 score
2) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Los Angeles
3) Chad Campbell vs. Justin Leonard – Leonard cards a lower 1st round score
4) Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers – Texas
5) Millwall @ Leeds United – Leeds United win
6) Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
7) Rajon Rondo vs. Rafer Alston – Alston pts. and ast.
8) Detroit Goals Scored: 3 or fewer vs. 4 or more – 4 or more
9) New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
10) Carolina Hurricanes @ Boston Bruins – Carolina
11) Pau Gasol vs. Ron Artest – Gasol pts.
12) New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants – New York

Analysis
1) Today's front 9 prop takes us to the Resort Course and LaCantera Golf Club in San Antonio, Texas. The course has been set at par 70 as it is already known for the low scores achievable on it. The official website's course tour seems a bit lacking with a clunky interface and tiny pictures of each hole, but from what I could see it looks like there are fairly wide fairways and a lack of bunkers guarding each green. Water hazards are scarce, and in general it appears that an aggressive game will pay dividends. I don't think either player has a particular advantage here, based on driving distance and accuracy. You can look at Rich Beem's stats and Alex Cejka's stats by clicking on the links. Rich Beem has a 71.05 scoring average compared to Cejka's 71.45 scoring average, so neither player has been all that terrific this year. Cejka and Beem have each played 12 rounds at LaCantera since 2005. Cejka's median score on the front 9 is a -1, and his most common score is -2. Beem's median score is a -1 as well, but he has carded -2 and +1 an equal number of times. Cejka has scored anywhere from -4 to +4, while Beem has carded scores as low as -3 and as high as +3. I would give Cejka a 48% chance of winning this prop, Beem a 38% chance, and the push a 14% chance of occurring. Those odds are based on the frequency of their front 9 scores since 2005 and by assuming their median and most common scores are most likely and that scores 'N' strokes off of those are 2^-N times as likely.

2) Chad Billingsley is a rare pitcher who has started out his season with seven straight quality starts. He's garnered a 2.45 ERA and 1.13 WHIP this season never giving up more than 3 earned runs and 8 hits in a game. Of course, 5 of those starts have come against the Padres and the Giants, so he will be facing his first major test against the Phillies. Fortunately, or not, the Phillies have been in a batting slump lately. In their past three games they have a .185 batting average and a .315 slugging average. One has to think that is going to end, and soon, so Billingsley may find himself in for a tough start, giving up 4 or 5 earned runs by the 5^th inning. Cole Hamels will be trying to prevent Billingsley from getting the run support he will need as Hamels seeks his fourth consecutive solid outing after starting out the season with a variety of injuries. His last outing was a 6 inning, 2 earned run, 3 hit domination of the Atlanta Braves. For good measure he struck out 7 batters and walked only 2. The Dodgers have done well in their past three games without Manny Ramirez, batting .295 and slugging .434, but it's clear their batting order is not as strong without Ramirez. Against Hamels I think they can be expected to struggle. I think Philadelphia looks like a very good pick here, but I cannot pick against a top pitcher like Billingsley when Hamels is 50% likely to strain a weak adductor muscle injury.

5) Millwall is up 1-0 in aggregate on Leeds United after their first leg match at The New Den. Now the Lions visit Leeds United at their home ground to decide who will go on to Wembley for the championship match and a chance at promotion to the English Championship. Leeds United are on an 11 game winning streak at home, not having lost since January 10^th, 0-2 to Carlisle United. Overall this season they are 20-3-4 at home in all competitions. In League One competition they are 17-4-2 at home, and have outscored their opposition 49 to 20. Millwall are 14-3-9 away in any competition, and 12-3-8 in League One. In those 23 league matches they have barely outscored their opponents, 33 to 32. They have lost their last three away matches, each time by 2 goals, and most recently 0-2 away at Carlisle United. Leeds United are at full strength with their manager able to select his strongest team possible. Millwall F.C. are also at full strength, essentially, with only striker Jason Price to miss out. The rivalry between these two teams is very heated with scenes of mayhem not uncommon. I have to think Leeds United fans will be out of their minds for this match. With Leeds United in good home form, and Millwall in recent poor away form the advantage is to Leeds. I calculated odds of Leeds winning at 50.4%, though oddsmakers have them at closer to 56.2%. As this prop involves injury time only, and not extra time, Millwall can feel good about losing by 1 goal and still have a chance in extra time to advance to Wembley.

6) The Los Angeles Angels welcome back pitcher Ervin Santana who is starting for the first time this year after sustaining an elbow injury. Last season Santana pitched for 219 innings and accrued an ERA of 3.49 and a 1.12 WHIP, very good numbers for a regular rotation guy. He has had a tough time against Boston, however. In 75 at bats the Red Sox have a .320 batting average and .533 slugging average, though they only have 1 home run. There is a big question about whether Santana will be in form immediately, and especially against Boston, though hopes are high. The Angels have batted .267 in their last three games but have slugged only .344 so they still have room to improve. They have been getting hits up and down the order lately though, so even with those relatively mediocre batting numbers they've been scoring runs. Boston has been struggling even more so, with a .229 batting average and .365 slugging average in their last three games. I think they will up those numbers against a recovering pitcher who they've had success against while healthy. On the other side will be Brad Penny who has not had a good season thus far. With a 1.77 WHIP he's lucky to have only a 6.90 ERA. He has settled down a bit from the start of the season, having not allowed a home run for two games after giving at least one up in each of his first 4 starts. His last two starts, both against Tampa Bay, have been decent, giving up 6 earned runs in 12¹/₃ innings pitched and 14 hits total while striking out 10 batters and walking only 4. I think the Angels enjoy playing at home and will make life hard for Penny in this game. As long as Santana is even halfway healthy enough to play I think the Angels' bats will keep them in this game and give them the lead by the time the bullpens come into play. Los Angeles' relievers have not had a great season, but they have settled down lately and should be able to deliver a save.
7) Rajon Rondo and the Boston Celtics travel to Orlando to attempt to close out their series in 6 games. The Orlando Magic should be plenty motivated for this game after losing Game 4 on a last second shot by Glen Davis, and giving up a 14 point lead in the fourth quarter of Game 5. Looking at the graph above it's clear that Rafer Alston has the advantage in this matchup. He has averaged 17.5 points and assists in home games this year and 16.9 since joining the Orlando Magic. Rajon Rondo, on the other hand, has averaged 11.9 points on the road this year. Against the Magic his numbers have been better with 13.5 points per game in Orlando. That production has been bolstered by his recent playoff performance, scoring 15 and 21 points in Orlando, whereas during the season he scored 9 points in two games there. Rafer Alston is averaging 14.3 points and assists per game against Boston, but only 9.5 in games at Orlando. I still like Alston in this prop as Rondo tends to have a difficult time scoring against smaller, quicker guards. Most of his higher scoring performances came against larger guards such as Deron Williams and Jason Kidd. I also think Orlando will be fired up for this game with the Celtics confident in being able to close out the series at home. Looking at the bar graphs one can see that Alston has over 15 points and assists in 70% his home games. Rondo has scored over 15 points in only 25% of his road games. It will take yet another spectacular game from Rondo to win this prop, and he could do it, but I think Alston is far more likely to win 17-12 than the other way around.

8) It's Game 7 of the series between the Detroit Red Wings and the Anaheim Ducks. It's been a very close series, at least when Anaheim has won. Twice they've won 2-1 and of course there was the triple overtime Game 2 Ducks victory. The Red Wings won Game 1 with a 3-2 score, but the other two wins have been fairly decisive at 6-3 and 4-2. Jonas Hiller has been amazing in these playoffs, but clearly not invincible with Detroit scoring 4 goals on him in two of their three wins. Looking at the graphs to the right Detroit has scored 4 goals or more in 22 of their 31 home wins this season and in the playoffs. The bar graph for Hiller shows how many games he has given up 4 goals or more in road losses. The number of games has been normalized to 31 for comparison with the Red Wings' numbers. In reality he has only tended the net in 11 road losses for the Ducks this year, giving up 4 or more goals in 6 of them. The white line represents the number of games Detroit is expected to score a certain number of goals in a win based on their average from this year. The black line represents Hiller's road goals against. One can see the Red Wings are equally likely to score 3 or 4, though they have scored 4 more often. One can also see Hiller is most likely to allow 3 goals in a road loss, though he has given up 4 most often. It looks very close, but the past results from the season suggest that 4 goals will be the total for Detroit.

11) With Yao Ming out of the lineup the task of guarding Pau Gasol has fallen to Carl Landry. He's giving up a few inches, but he did well the past two games in keeping Gasol out of the lane. At least as well as could be expected. Gasol has scored 30 and 16 points in the two games missing Yao, 30 points in the blowout loss in Houston and 16 in the blowout win at home. Overall this season Gasol has averaged 19.4 points on the road, and 18.5 points against the Rockets. By comparison Artest has not done so well, averaging 16.9 points at home and 14.7 points at home against the Lakers. One might think that having Yao out of the lineup would place more of the scoring load on Artest, but he has scored only 8 and 9 points in the two games since Yao's injury. I think the Rockets' move to a smaller, quicker lineup has shifted the scoring focus away from forwards Scola and Artest and more onto Brooks and Battier. Even with Houston fired up for this game and Landry doing a fine job on Gasol I think Pau is just too coordinated, too quick, and too good to score fewer than 15 points. Artest has scored less than 10 for two straight games.

May 13th, 2009 Picks

2-1-0 yesterday, so it could have been worse. Mumbai Indians pulled through with economical bowling and solid batting, especially from D.J. Bravo. Mumbai won by 8 wickets with 22 balls remaining. Then I picked the Dodgers, and well, Chan Ho Park had another good game. Go figure. Los Angeles got 11 hits but only 2 runs out of it all. A fielding error and a walk with the bases loaded gave Philadelphia the go ahead runs. Then I finished out the day with the Lakers' margin of victory. Up by double digits after one, and by 25 points at the break the Lakers were running away with the game. It didn't get any better for Houston in the 4^th quarter as the Lakers took a 40 point lead that ended up being the final margin. Luis Scola had 12 points so this ended up being the easiest win of the night. Hopefully today can be as successful with baseball coming through for once. Just once I'd like my team to avoid walking in a run! So on to the picks.

1) Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets – New York
2) Sampdoria @ Lazio – 2 goals or fewer
3) Manchester United @ Wigan Athletic – Manchester United win by 2 goals
4) Ryan Zimmerman’s Hit Streak: Extends to 31 Games vs. Ends at 30 Games – Extends to 31
5) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals – Washington
6) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies – Los Angeles
7) New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
8) Florida Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers – Florida hits the 1st home run
9) Jason Terry ast. and reb. vs. Denver Nuggets win margin – Denver win margin
10) Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Cincinnati
11) Kansas City Royals @ Oakland Athletics – 5 runs or more in the 1^st 5 innings
12) Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles

Analysis
1) The New York Mets are 1-1 in this 3 game series with the Braves after a 10^th inning win over Atlanta yesterday. Jonathon Niese will be getting his second start of the season for the Mets today, facing off against Jo-Jo Reyes of the Braves. Niese had a good first start, holding the Pittsburgh Pirates to 2 runs and 7 hits in 6 innings, while striking out 5 batters and walking none. He did a solid job against the Braves last September as well, pitching for 8 scoreless innings and allowing only 6 hits. Of course, that Braves team did not have Chipper Jones or Brian McCann in the lineup on that day. His career stats, through all of 20 innings, have him with a 5.85 ERA and 1.75 WHIP so I would not expect him to have a great outing even though he is perfectly capable of it. Jo-Jo Reyes has 4 starts under his belt, and aside from a 3 hit, 1 earned run in 7 inning performance against the Cardinals he has been way off. His ERA for the season is 5.48 to go along with a 1.30 WHIP. With 13 earned runs in 16 innings aside from that Cardinals game his ERA has been closer to 9.00 than 5.00. Still, he has an impressive ground out-to-fly out ratio at 1.30 so I would expect the Mets, who are already struggling to earn extra base hits, to continue to hit singles. In their last three games the Braves have a .321 batting average and I think they will have a hard time finding enough hits to keep that number up. They're also not hitting the long ball with a .384 slugging average. Overall the pitching matchup is fairly equal, but I like the Mets to have the stronger bats in this game. It will come down to who can string hits together in one inning and advance the base runners.

2) Sampdoria and Lazio are two unlikely opponents in this Coppa Italia final. Here is a small article detailing their respective roads to the final. S.S. Lazio are the odds on favorites to win as the final is being played on their home pitch at the Stadio Olimpico. Both sides are near full strength, with their very best players out on the pitch for this match. In 23 away matches, in any competition, Sampdoria have averaged 2.4 total goals scored. 14 of the 23 matches have had 2 or fewer goals scored. S.S. Lazio averages 2.8 goals scored in their 22 home matches and have had 2 goals or fewer scored in 11 of them. I would favor the under only slightly based on those statistics, but the oddsmakers have the under favored a great deal more, with the under at -200 and the over at +110. Part of the reason for that is the cautious and tactical style of play with which these two sides are expected to display. This preview from goal.com can give a little more perspective on this match. The scoring threats from each side are dangerous, but assuming the keepers do well and there are no penalties or own goals the game should go under.

3) Manchester United could clinch a share of the Premier League trophy with a win over Wigan Athletic at JJB Stadium today. This match is a make up for a match originally scheduled to be played on April 19th which was postponed by Manchester United's progression through the FA Cup. Wigan Athletic face a couple of key injury concerns, with striker Amr Zaki being ruled out and keeper Chris Kingston out with an injury he suffered against West Bromwich Albion last week. Manchester United will give late fitness tests to defenders Rio Ferdinand and Jonny Evans. The Red Devils are heavy favorites to win this match given their recent form and the Latics' loss of their first string keeper. Otherwise JJB Stadium has been a difficult place for teams to pick up three points. In 18 home matches only two teams have scored more than 1 goal there: Arsenal and Aston Villa. Both Chelsea and Liverpool were held to 1 goal with Chelsea winning 1-0 and Liverpool being held to a 1-1 draw. Wigan Athletic have a great deal of respect for Manchester United and Alex Ferguson, and what they've done for the game of football and would not mind if the Red Devils clinched a share of the title today. Interestingly, Manchester United won the Premier League crown at JJB Stadium last season with a 2-0 victory. I think they will do the same today.

6) Randy Wolf faces Jamie Moyer as the Los Angeles Dodgers attempt to find some semblance of success since the suspension of Manny Ramirez. Their troubles started the day his suspension was announced as they gave up a 6 run lead to the Washington Nationals. Since that game they have gone 1-3. Jamie Moyer may provide some relief for them as the 46 year old veteran has been off his game despite posting a 3-2 record in his first 6 starts. With a 7.26 ERA and 1.81 WHIP he has been fortunate to have the Phillies' bats behind him, providing plenty of run support. He has given up 4 to 6 earned runs in all but one start this season, including 7 earned runs in 2¹/₃ innings to the Mets in his last start. Randy Wolf has done well this season for the Dodgers, with a 2.95 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 7 starts. In his last three starts he has given up a total of 2 earned runs and 12 hits. The Philadelphia Phillies have not done so well batting in their last three games, with a .187 batting average and .319 slugging average resulting in 9 runs. That is well below their offensive production this season and I expect they will give Wolf some trouble today. Even if Wolf has a poor game and gives up 4 to 5 runs I expect Moyer will do the same. The Dodgers have been unfortunate in losing some of these recent games and I think their poor luck will end tonight.

7) The Toronto Blue Jays attempt to add another win to their league leading 23 against the New York Yankees today. The Yankees are 2-2 since Alex Rodriguez returned to the lineup, putting a bit of a damper on their hopes since their 4-0 win over Baltimore where Rodriguez hit a home run on the first pitch he faced. Scott Richmond will be pitching for Toronto, and he has had a very good start to his second season in the Majors with a 3.29 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Richmond did get a bit touched up in his last start in Oakland as the A's got 7 hits off of him leading to 5 earned runs. Andy Pettite, sporting a 4.38 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, will be pitching opposite Richmond. Pettite also had a good start to the season but has been quite hittable in his past two starts, giving up a total of 10 earned runs off 18 hits to Tampa Bay and the Angels. In their past three games it has been the Yankees who have been struggling offensively. The Yankees are averaging 3.3 runs in those games with a .227 batting average. Their slugging is what has given them even those few runs. The Blue Jays have been better with a .333 batting average and .472 slugging average in their last three games. The Blue Jays are batting nearly .300 on the season so I don't expect them to fall off their recent hot hitting too much. The Yankees should also see an improvement in batting against an inexperienced pitcher. I do think Pettite is more likely to have a good game today as I would not expect him to be shelled three starts consecutively. With Richmond being so young and the Yankees' bats due to wake up I think New York has the advantage overall. Still, the Blue Jays have been so strong offensively that even a good performance by Pettite will yield 3 or 4 runs. With the Yankees' bullpen posting far inferior numbers to Toronto's I think the Blue Jays will pull off victory, even if they find themselves down 3 or 4 after 6 innings.

9) In Game 4 the Denver Nuggets were unable to pull off another miracle as in Game 3. Now they return to Denver with their second chance to close out this series. After Mavericks' owner Mark Cuban's remarks to Kenyon Martin's mother and his unwanted apology insinuating the series would return to Dallas the Nuggets will be looking to win big. The line graphs above show the distributions of Denver's home margins of victory and Jason Terry's away points plus assists based on their averages this season, playoffs and regular season combined. The bar graphs show how many games Terry has had with a specific number of points and assists and how many games the Nuggets have won by a certain number of points. The graph leaves off 3 games which the Nuggets won by more than 22 points. Jason Terry averages between 5 and 6 points plus assists in away games, while the Nuggets have won 38 home games by an average of 12 points or so. That makes this a massacre pick for the Nuggets, but when you look at their head-to-head results Terry averages 7.75 points and assists in games played at Denver. This is represented by the glow near the bar over '8' on the graph. The Nuggets have won those 4 home games against Dallas by an average of 7.75 points, so the prop is actually pretty even. I like the Nuggets here, however, because the two times Jason Terry won this prop were in the regular season games, where Dallas lost by only 2 and 3 points. The Nuggets have had the larger winning margin in both playoff games, winning by 12 and 14 points. I think the Nuggets will play hard in this game and win by double digits yet again. Remember, the last time Denver lost they won the next game by 58 points, and that was on the road. Sure, Dallas is better, but that's why I'm thinking Denver only wins by 10 to 15.

10) The Cincinnati Reds continued their winning ways, having won 5 of their last 6. In their last three games Cincinnati have recorded 12, 18, and 6 hits. They are still batting incredibly well, at .313 in their last three and slugging .583 leading to 23 runs being scored. Arizona's offense has picked up after being fairly anemic for most of the season and they have scored 16 runs in their last three games. Now Arizona must go up against Johnny Cueto who has a 1.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in his first 6 starts. After giving up 8 hits and 4 runs to the Pirates in his opener Cueto has not allowed more than 1 run in any game this season. Bryan Augenstein will be getting his first major league start after pitching in the minor leagues for nearly two years. His numbers there have been phenomenal. In 5 starts for AA Mobile this season he has a 5-0 record to go with a 0.79 ERA and 0.67 WHIP. It's difficult to say whether that success will translate to the Majors, but he has been successful at every level of competition he's played at. I think the Reds will continue to cool off at the plate and Augenstein has a good shot at keeping Arizona in the game. Even though I think this will be a pitchers duel, because Augenstein is an unknown at this level the advantage has to go to the Reds. Cincinnati's bullpen also holds the edge. Take the Diamondbacks if you think Cueto is due for a poor start and Augenstein will prove his worth, but otherwise the Reds are the better pick.

11) The Oakland Athletics scored 12 runs by the end of the 5^th inning against the Royals yesterday. Against Bannister they will probably struggle to score any runs in the first 6 innings. Josh Outman is pitching for Oakland and aside from his relief pitching efforts he's given up a few runs in each start and has been lucky to have not given up more. Each team averages over 2.5 runs scored in the first 5 innings this season. The graph below shows Kansas City's scoring in the first 5 innings this season. You can see how their scoring goes up and down every two or three games, likely reflecting their facing different pitchers in the opposing team's rotation. The light red line is their five game average and one can see that it's at a low point for the season. I expect them to score 4 runs on their own off of Outman and raise that average. Since Oakland just scored 12 runs and they're facing a top pitcher from Kansas City I did not include their scoring. I think it will be close, but if Oakland can score 1 run it will go over.

May 12th, 2009 Picks

And the losing continues. I really wish I'd taken Rashard Lewis the other day, and Delonte West today would have been a good one. Fortunately it looks like a number of good props on the board tomorrow. Today I lost with Rajasthan Royals as they had a terrible game batting and lost by 53 runs. Then I lost with Middlesbrough who were thoroughly dominated and only scored one by virtue of a Newcastle United own goal. After that I passed on the Cleveland Indians to take the Pens. It was a close game but the Penguins gave up two goals in one minute of the 3^rd period leading to overtime. Once again the team I picked was not the team who scored in the OT. My final pick was the Washington Nationals. With two outs already Fred Lewis hit a routine pop fly to left field but Josh Willingham ran too far forward and it landed behind him. That allowed two runs to score and Daniel Cabrera proceeded to walk 4 straight batters, walking in two runs. His reliever, Kensing, proceeded to walk a third run in before retiring the side. Without those 5 runs the score was 7-6 in favor of the Nationals, but alas they could not escape their own sloppy play. So on to the picks.

1) Kings XI Punjabi vs. Mumbai Indians – Mumbai
2) Burnley @ Reading – Reading win
3) Boston Bruins @ Carolina Hurricanes – Carolina
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles – Tampa Bay
5) St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Pittsburgh
6) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies – Los Angeles
7) Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics – Boston
8) Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins – Detroit
9) Carlos Lee vs. Todd Helton – Helton runs, hits, and RBIs
10) Cincinnati Reds total hits vs. Dan Haren strikeouts – Haren strikeouts
11) Detroit Red Wings @ Anaheim Ducks – Detroit
12) Kansas City Royals @ Oakland Athletics – Oakland
13) Ryan Zimmerman's Hit Streak: Reaches 30 Games vs. Ends at 29 - Reaches 30 games
14) Luis Scola pts. vs. Los Angeles Lakers win margin – Lakers win margin

Analysis
1) Kings XI Punjabi currently lie 1 point above Mumbai Indians in the tables with 5 victories to 4 victories and 1 washout for the Indians. These two teams met earlier in the tournament with Kings XI Punjab winning 119/8 to 116/7. Tendulkar, a world class South African cricket player and considered one of Mumbai's top batsmen, scored 1 run in 6 balls before getting out. Dumini recorded one of his league leading 4 half-centuries but it was not enough with Mumbai batting poorly all around. The Hindu online have a nice preview on this match. They note that Tendulkar has been inconsistent batting and Harbhajan Singh has not been bowling as well as expected. One of the best previews on the match comes from CricInfo. Both teams are coming off of solid victories. Mumbai Indians just defeated Royal Challengers Bangalore 157/2 to 141/7. With only two wickets they had only 4 batsmen for all 20 overs. Duminy and Rahane each recorded half-centuries and their bowlers were just economical enough. Kings XI Punjabi are coming off a nail-biter victory over Deccan Chargers, 169/7 to 168/5. They recorded the winning runs with one ball remaining. They received strong contributions up and down their order with 5 batsmen having a strike rate over 100. The strike rate is simply runs divided by balls multiplied by 100. The Indians have solid bowling, and it will be strengthened further if Zaheer Khan can pass his late fitness test. Kings XI Punjabi have more batting strength along their order but do not have stars like Dunimy or Tendulkar. Since Kings XI have so many potentially strong batsmen the Mumbai bowlers will need to be economical, i.e. avoid giving up fours and sixes. With Mumbai relying on three or four batsmen for their run production Kings XI will want to put a premium on strike bowling. Kings XI Punjabi are slightly favored, but I like Mumbai to limit their run production and am counting on Tendulkar and Rahane to have a high strike rate.

2) Burnley travel to Madejski Stadium to take on Reading for the 2^nd leg of their English Championship League promotion semi-final. Burnley lead 1-0 in aggregate after scoring a late penalty kick in the 1^st leg. The first leg displayed little of the free flowing, attacking, style of football these clubs are known for. Andre Bikey was sent off for Reading in injury time and will be serving a four-match suspension for his behavior afterwards. Kevin Doyle received a knock for Reading, and he is still a major injury doubt for today's match. The Royals are facing a number of other injury concerns as well, with Chris Armstrong, Graeme Murty, and Ivar Ingimarsson still out. James Harper and Leroy Lita trained but are not yet fit, though the Reading Chronicle see Lita and David Mooney fighting for a spot as substitutes which could help Reading's attack late in the match. Chris Eagles suffered a knock for Burnley in the first leg, but Owen Coyle is confident he will figure in the second. Burnley will be at full strength then, and Reading will have major injury concerns, but Reading, having played in the Premier League the past two seasons, have had the money to build a large squad with quality reserves. SkySport carry a preview on the match and they favor Burnley to advance, if not win the leg outright. Bettingzone agree, giving Burnley a fantastic chance of winning, considering the odds on them. Many books have Reading as 10/11 favorites, which comes out to about 50%, and Burnley at 7/2 with the draw at 9/4, or about 21.3% and 28.7%, respectively. Those odds must be based off of each sides form over the season, where Reading scored 40 goals at home and conceded only 17. Reading have not won at home in their past 8 matches there, however, and Burnley have been strong down the stretch. In all honesty Burnley should be able to secure the draw, but I am putting faith in Reading regaining their form in a must win match against a strong opponent.

5) The Pittsburgh Pirates try to stem a flood of losses after they lost their 8^th straight to the New York Mets 8-4. In that losing streak are two losses at St. Louis, with one loss coming to Wellemeyer and the other loss coming with Zach Duke pitching. That does not bode well for the Pirates as Wellemeyer and Duke face off for the second time this season. In the first matchup Duke got the better of the two, throwing for 6¹/₃ innings and allowing 3 runs, 1 of them earned, off of 5 hits. Wellemeyer gave up 12 hits resulting in 5 earned runs in 5 innings pitched, and the Pirates won the game 7-4. Wellemeyer has had a few other similar performances this season, but he has been solid in his previous two starts. He pitched against Pittsburgh on the 7^th for 7 innings, giving up 2 earned runs on 4 hits in a 5-2 victory for St. Louis. Duke's last start was a loss against the Cardinals, where he gave up 6 hits and 4 earned runs in 5¹/₃ innings. Both teams have been batting a bit below average in their last three games. The Cardinals have a .243 batting average and .411 slugging average while the Pirates are batting .248 and slugging .366 in that time so there's no saying either team is due to have a poor or grand performance at the plate. I think Zach Duke is not likely to have two consecutive poor outings, and Wellemeyer is likely to have a bad start after two solid outings. If that happens the Pirates will need their bullpen to get back to their opening form for the season where they had people talking about how much they'd improved. After 8 straight losses the Pirates are due for a win, and Duke is the pitcher to deliver it to them. With the batting favoring the Cardinals it should be a close one either way.

6) Clayton Kershaw gets the start for the Dodgers tonight against Chan Ho Park for the Phillies. Kershaw does not have the best numbers for this season, with a 4.91 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in his first 6 starts. He had two games in which he was absolutely rocked, pitching for 9 innings with a 15.00 ERA and 2.44 WHIP against the Astros and the Rockies. In the other 24 innings he's pitched he has a 1.13 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, Cy Young numbers. He is young, so he could come out tonight against the strong bats of the Phillies and give up another 5 or 6 runs before the game is half over, but I think he will continue to be the ace he's developing into. Chan Ho Park is in his 16^th season in the Majors and has had an inauspicious start to this one. He's given up 20 earned runs in 5 starts though the offense has bailed him out more than once in getting back the runs he's given up. Park is coming off his first truly solid start of the season, where he pitched for 6 scoreless innings, giving up a single hit against the New York Mets. The Phillies have had a difficult time at the plate in their past three games with a .194 batting average, though guys like Werth, Rollins, and Utley have not left them hanging when it comes to long balls. The Dodgers have been OK at the plate with a .277 batting average in their past 3 games, but have found the fences a bit further than they remember since Manny Ramirez was suspended. I'm thinking Park will have a fairly good game, but still give up 4 or 5 runs before being relieved, and the Phillies will not be able to come back in this one against a very good Dodgers bullpen.

9) Below are a couple of line graphs that compare the proportion of games Carlos Lee and Todd Helton have had with 1, 2, 3, etc. runs, hits, and RBIs. The top graph shows their numbers from the 2008 season and this season together. The bottom graph shows this season's numbers alone. One thing that is apparent is that Carlos Lee rarely had a game without a hit, run, or RBI in 2008, but has been going without more often this season. One can also see that Todd Helton has fewer big games, with 4 or 5 runs, hits, and RBIs with more games at 2 or 3. Overall this season Helton has gotten 3 or more runs, hits, and RBIs in 41.1% of his games. Carlos Lee has gotten 3 or more in 47.3% of his games. That would favor Carlos Lee in this matchup, but the pitching here favors Todd Helton a great deal. Based on their numbers from the past two seasons Paulino could be expected to give up 2 more runs in 6 innings than Jiminez. The Rockies' batting numbers are stronger overall and they have scored more runs per game, with 4.9 compared to 4.2 runs for the Astros. Finally, the Rockies' relievers have put up better numbers and I think could be fairly expected to give up fewer hits, runs, and RBIs than their counterparts from the Astros. Although Lee has been more likely to rack up the numbers I think Helton will be more likely to in this game.
10) The Cincinnati Reds started the season out slowly at the plate but have really found their groove since then. They have recorded 9 hits or more in their past 6 games and it's clear from the timeline below they have been averaging more and more hits as the season has gone on. Obviously that trend cannot continue and I think their 3 game average is about to drop from around 10 hits per game. As for Dan Haren, he has been having a good season, averaging 7.3 strikeouts per game. In 2008 and 2009 he had 19 of 40 gamse with 7 or more strikeouts. That's very close to half of his starts and I think he'll get at least 7 strikeouts in this game. The question is whether the Reds will have 7 or fewer hits. It would be on the low end of total hits for the Reds, but I figure they are seriously due for a poor game. Honestly, however, if you want to hedge your bets the Reds total hits is the better pick.
14) The Los Angeles Lakers got embarrassed by the Houston Rockets in Game 4. Without Yao Ming most people figured the Lakers would just be too much for the Rockets, who won Game 1 of the series in L.A. mostly due to the 7'6" center's efforts. It was exactly the opposite as the Rockets went up big early and never looked back. The Lakers had almost no intensity on the defensive end and the Rockets took advantage of that. Even with the Lakers playing poorly on defense Luis Scola only scored 11 points. Without Yao Ming in the lineup Scola has averaged 17.5 points this season. I have to think that with Gasol and Odom in the lineup Scola will score 12 or fewer points, especially with Los Angeles sure to amp it up on defense. The Lakers have beaten Houston three times in L.A., by 12, 13, and 29 points and I think they will win by at least 12 again.