May 14th, 2009 Picks

2-1-0 today. Started off rough with the New York Mets choking things away. They fell behind by 2 after the 1^st but got the runs right back at the bottom of the inning. They fell behind again, but got the lead back with a grand slam by Tatis in the 4^th. Sheffield equalized the score again with a solo shot but they were unable to drive home Church at second with 1 out, so the game went into extra innings. In the 10^th inning Beltran was at second with 1 out, but this time Tatis ground into a double play. Eventually Takahashi gave up a solo home run to Prado in the 12^th inning and that proved to be the difference.

My next pick was the Florida Marlins to hit the first home run of the game. I was pleasantly surprised to see Chris Coghlan hit a two run homer, and even more pleased when I found out it was his ninth at bat in the Majors. It got sickeningly sweet when Weeks hit a lead off home run with the first pitch thrown to the Brewers.

The last pick was Denver Nuggets' winning margin. The Nuggets did their part by getting a double digit lead in the first quarter and holding on to it for the rest of the game. The drama was taken out of the prop with Jason Terry totaling zero points and zero rebounds until sometime in the third quarter. He finished the game with one each and the Nuggets won their series with a 14 point win. So on to the fucking picks.

1) Alex Cejka vs. Rich Beem – Cejka cards a lower front 9 score
2) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Los Angeles
3) Chad Campbell vs. Justin Leonard – Leonard cards a lower 1st round score
4) Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers – Texas
5) Millwall @ Leeds United – Leeds United win
6) Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
7) Rajon Rondo vs. Rafer Alston – Alston pts. and ast.
8) Detroit Goals Scored: 3 or fewer vs. 4 or more – 4 or more
9) New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
10) Carolina Hurricanes @ Boston Bruins – Carolina
11) Pau Gasol vs. Ron Artest – Gasol pts.
12) New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants – New York

Analysis
1) Today's front 9 prop takes us to the Resort Course and LaCantera Golf Club in San Antonio, Texas. The course has been set at par 70 as it is already known for the low scores achievable on it. The official website's course tour seems a bit lacking with a clunky interface and tiny pictures of each hole, but from what I could see it looks like there are fairly wide fairways and a lack of bunkers guarding each green. Water hazards are scarce, and in general it appears that an aggressive game will pay dividends. I don't think either player has a particular advantage here, based on driving distance and accuracy. You can look at Rich Beem's stats and Alex Cejka's stats by clicking on the links. Rich Beem has a 71.05 scoring average compared to Cejka's 71.45 scoring average, so neither player has been all that terrific this year. Cejka and Beem have each played 12 rounds at LaCantera since 2005. Cejka's median score on the front 9 is a -1, and his most common score is -2. Beem's median score is a -1 as well, but he has carded -2 and +1 an equal number of times. Cejka has scored anywhere from -4 to +4, while Beem has carded scores as low as -3 and as high as +3. I would give Cejka a 48% chance of winning this prop, Beem a 38% chance, and the push a 14% chance of occurring. Those odds are based on the frequency of their front 9 scores since 2005 and by assuming their median and most common scores are most likely and that scores 'N' strokes off of those are 2^-N times as likely.

2) Chad Billingsley is a rare pitcher who has started out his season with seven straight quality starts. He's garnered a 2.45 ERA and 1.13 WHIP this season never giving up more than 3 earned runs and 8 hits in a game. Of course, 5 of those starts have come against the Padres and the Giants, so he will be facing his first major test against the Phillies. Fortunately, or not, the Phillies have been in a batting slump lately. In their past three games they have a .185 batting average and a .315 slugging average. One has to think that is going to end, and soon, so Billingsley may find himself in for a tough start, giving up 4 or 5 earned runs by the 5^th inning. Cole Hamels will be trying to prevent Billingsley from getting the run support he will need as Hamels seeks his fourth consecutive solid outing after starting out the season with a variety of injuries. His last outing was a 6 inning, 2 earned run, 3 hit domination of the Atlanta Braves. For good measure he struck out 7 batters and walked only 2. The Dodgers have done well in their past three games without Manny Ramirez, batting .295 and slugging .434, but it's clear their batting order is not as strong without Ramirez. Against Hamels I think they can be expected to struggle. I think Philadelphia looks like a very good pick here, but I cannot pick against a top pitcher like Billingsley when Hamels is 50% likely to strain a weak adductor muscle injury.

5) Millwall is up 1-0 in aggregate on Leeds United after their first leg match at The New Den. Now the Lions visit Leeds United at their home ground to decide who will go on to Wembley for the championship match and a chance at promotion to the English Championship. Leeds United are on an 11 game winning streak at home, not having lost since January 10^th, 0-2 to Carlisle United. Overall this season they are 20-3-4 at home in all competitions. In League One competition they are 17-4-2 at home, and have outscored their opposition 49 to 20. Millwall are 14-3-9 away in any competition, and 12-3-8 in League One. In those 23 league matches they have barely outscored their opponents, 33 to 32. They have lost their last three away matches, each time by 2 goals, and most recently 0-2 away at Carlisle United. Leeds United are at full strength with their manager able to select his strongest team possible. Millwall F.C. are also at full strength, essentially, with only striker Jason Price to miss out. The rivalry between these two teams is very heated with scenes of mayhem not uncommon. I have to think Leeds United fans will be out of their minds for this match. With Leeds United in good home form, and Millwall in recent poor away form the advantage is to Leeds. I calculated odds of Leeds winning at 50.4%, though oddsmakers have them at closer to 56.2%. As this prop involves injury time only, and not extra time, Millwall can feel good about losing by 1 goal and still have a chance in extra time to advance to Wembley.

6) The Los Angeles Angels welcome back pitcher Ervin Santana who is starting for the first time this year after sustaining an elbow injury. Last season Santana pitched for 219 innings and accrued an ERA of 3.49 and a 1.12 WHIP, very good numbers for a regular rotation guy. He has had a tough time against Boston, however. In 75 at bats the Red Sox have a .320 batting average and .533 slugging average, though they only have 1 home run. There is a big question about whether Santana will be in form immediately, and especially against Boston, though hopes are high. The Angels have batted .267 in their last three games but have slugged only .344 so they still have room to improve. They have been getting hits up and down the order lately though, so even with those relatively mediocre batting numbers they've been scoring runs. Boston has been struggling even more so, with a .229 batting average and .365 slugging average in their last three games. I think they will up those numbers against a recovering pitcher who they've had success against while healthy. On the other side will be Brad Penny who has not had a good season thus far. With a 1.77 WHIP he's lucky to have only a 6.90 ERA. He has settled down a bit from the start of the season, having not allowed a home run for two games after giving at least one up in each of his first 4 starts. His last two starts, both against Tampa Bay, have been decent, giving up 6 earned runs in 12¹/₃ innings pitched and 14 hits total while striking out 10 batters and walking only 4. I think the Angels enjoy playing at home and will make life hard for Penny in this game. As long as Santana is even halfway healthy enough to play I think the Angels' bats will keep them in this game and give them the lead by the time the bullpens come into play. Los Angeles' relievers have not had a great season, but they have settled down lately and should be able to deliver a save.
7) Rajon Rondo and the Boston Celtics travel to Orlando to attempt to close out their series in 6 games. The Orlando Magic should be plenty motivated for this game after losing Game 4 on a last second shot by Glen Davis, and giving up a 14 point lead in the fourth quarter of Game 5. Looking at the graph above it's clear that Rafer Alston has the advantage in this matchup. He has averaged 17.5 points and assists in home games this year and 16.9 since joining the Orlando Magic. Rajon Rondo, on the other hand, has averaged 11.9 points on the road this year. Against the Magic his numbers have been better with 13.5 points per game in Orlando. That production has been bolstered by his recent playoff performance, scoring 15 and 21 points in Orlando, whereas during the season he scored 9 points in two games there. Rafer Alston is averaging 14.3 points and assists per game against Boston, but only 9.5 in games at Orlando. I still like Alston in this prop as Rondo tends to have a difficult time scoring against smaller, quicker guards. Most of his higher scoring performances came against larger guards such as Deron Williams and Jason Kidd. I also think Orlando will be fired up for this game with the Celtics confident in being able to close out the series at home. Looking at the bar graphs one can see that Alston has over 15 points and assists in 70% his home games. Rondo has scored over 15 points in only 25% of his road games. It will take yet another spectacular game from Rondo to win this prop, and he could do it, but I think Alston is far more likely to win 17-12 than the other way around.

8) It's Game 7 of the series between the Detroit Red Wings and the Anaheim Ducks. It's been a very close series, at least when Anaheim has won. Twice they've won 2-1 and of course there was the triple overtime Game 2 Ducks victory. The Red Wings won Game 1 with a 3-2 score, but the other two wins have been fairly decisive at 6-3 and 4-2. Jonas Hiller has been amazing in these playoffs, but clearly not invincible with Detroit scoring 4 goals on him in two of their three wins. Looking at the graphs to the right Detroit has scored 4 goals or more in 22 of their 31 home wins this season and in the playoffs. The bar graph for Hiller shows how many games he has given up 4 goals or more in road losses. The number of games has been normalized to 31 for comparison with the Red Wings' numbers. In reality he has only tended the net in 11 road losses for the Ducks this year, giving up 4 or more goals in 6 of them. The white line represents the number of games Detroit is expected to score a certain number of goals in a win based on their average from this year. The black line represents Hiller's road goals against. One can see the Red Wings are equally likely to score 3 or 4, though they have scored 4 more often. One can also see Hiller is most likely to allow 3 goals in a road loss, though he has given up 4 most often. It looks very close, but the past results from the season suggest that 4 goals will be the total for Detroit.

11) With Yao Ming out of the lineup the task of guarding Pau Gasol has fallen to Carl Landry. He's giving up a few inches, but he did well the past two games in keeping Gasol out of the lane. At least as well as could be expected. Gasol has scored 30 and 16 points in the two games missing Yao, 30 points in the blowout loss in Houston and 16 in the blowout win at home. Overall this season Gasol has averaged 19.4 points on the road, and 18.5 points against the Rockets. By comparison Artest has not done so well, averaging 16.9 points at home and 14.7 points at home against the Lakers. One might think that having Yao out of the lineup would place more of the scoring load on Artest, but he has scored only 8 and 9 points in the two games since Yao's injury. I think the Rockets' move to a smaller, quicker lineup has shifted the scoring focus away from forwards Scola and Artest and more onto Brooks and Battier. Even with Houston fired up for this game and Landry doing a fine job on Gasol I think Pau is just too coordinated, too quick, and too good to score fewer than 15 points. Artest has scored less than 10 for two straight games.

May 13th, 2009 Picks

2-1-0 yesterday, so it could have been worse. Mumbai Indians pulled through with economical bowling and solid batting, especially from D.J. Bravo. Mumbai won by 8 wickets with 22 balls remaining. Then I picked the Dodgers, and well, Chan Ho Park had another good game. Go figure. Los Angeles got 11 hits but only 2 runs out of it all. A fielding error and a walk with the bases loaded gave Philadelphia the go ahead runs. Then I finished out the day with the Lakers' margin of victory. Up by double digits after one, and by 25 points at the break the Lakers were running away with the game. It didn't get any better for Houston in the 4^th quarter as the Lakers took a 40 point lead that ended up being the final margin. Luis Scola had 12 points so this ended up being the easiest win of the night. Hopefully today can be as successful with baseball coming through for once. Just once I'd like my team to avoid walking in a run! So on to the picks.

1) Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets – New York
2) Sampdoria @ Lazio – 2 goals or fewer
3) Manchester United @ Wigan Athletic – Manchester United win by 2 goals
4) Ryan Zimmerman’s Hit Streak: Extends to 31 Games vs. Ends at 30 Games – Extends to 31
5) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals – Washington
6) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies – Los Angeles
7) New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
8) Florida Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers – Florida hits the 1st home run
9) Jason Terry ast. and reb. vs. Denver Nuggets win margin – Denver win margin
10) Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Cincinnati
11) Kansas City Royals @ Oakland Athletics – 5 runs or more in the 1^st 5 innings
12) Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles

Analysis
1) The New York Mets are 1-1 in this 3 game series with the Braves after a 10^th inning win over Atlanta yesterday. Jonathon Niese will be getting his second start of the season for the Mets today, facing off against Jo-Jo Reyes of the Braves. Niese had a good first start, holding the Pittsburgh Pirates to 2 runs and 7 hits in 6 innings, while striking out 5 batters and walking none. He did a solid job against the Braves last September as well, pitching for 8 scoreless innings and allowing only 6 hits. Of course, that Braves team did not have Chipper Jones or Brian McCann in the lineup on that day. His career stats, through all of 20 innings, have him with a 5.85 ERA and 1.75 WHIP so I would not expect him to have a great outing even though he is perfectly capable of it. Jo-Jo Reyes has 4 starts under his belt, and aside from a 3 hit, 1 earned run in 7 inning performance against the Cardinals he has been way off. His ERA for the season is 5.48 to go along with a 1.30 WHIP. With 13 earned runs in 16 innings aside from that Cardinals game his ERA has been closer to 9.00 than 5.00. Still, he has an impressive ground out-to-fly out ratio at 1.30 so I would expect the Mets, who are already struggling to earn extra base hits, to continue to hit singles. In their last three games the Braves have a .321 batting average and I think they will have a hard time finding enough hits to keep that number up. They're also not hitting the long ball with a .384 slugging average. Overall the pitching matchup is fairly equal, but I like the Mets to have the stronger bats in this game. It will come down to who can string hits together in one inning and advance the base runners.

2) Sampdoria and Lazio are two unlikely opponents in this Coppa Italia final. Here is a small article detailing their respective roads to the final. S.S. Lazio are the odds on favorites to win as the final is being played on their home pitch at the Stadio Olimpico. Both sides are near full strength, with their very best players out on the pitch for this match. In 23 away matches, in any competition, Sampdoria have averaged 2.4 total goals scored. 14 of the 23 matches have had 2 or fewer goals scored. S.S. Lazio averages 2.8 goals scored in their 22 home matches and have had 2 goals or fewer scored in 11 of them. I would favor the under only slightly based on those statistics, but the oddsmakers have the under favored a great deal more, with the under at -200 and the over at +110. Part of the reason for that is the cautious and tactical style of play with which these two sides are expected to display. This preview from goal.com can give a little more perspective on this match. The scoring threats from each side are dangerous, but assuming the keepers do well and there are no penalties or own goals the game should go under.

3) Manchester United could clinch a share of the Premier League trophy with a win over Wigan Athletic at JJB Stadium today. This match is a make up for a match originally scheduled to be played on April 19th which was postponed by Manchester United's progression through the FA Cup. Wigan Athletic face a couple of key injury concerns, with striker Amr Zaki being ruled out and keeper Chris Kingston out with an injury he suffered against West Bromwich Albion last week. Manchester United will give late fitness tests to defenders Rio Ferdinand and Jonny Evans. The Red Devils are heavy favorites to win this match given their recent form and the Latics' loss of their first string keeper. Otherwise JJB Stadium has been a difficult place for teams to pick up three points. In 18 home matches only two teams have scored more than 1 goal there: Arsenal and Aston Villa. Both Chelsea and Liverpool were held to 1 goal with Chelsea winning 1-0 and Liverpool being held to a 1-1 draw. Wigan Athletic have a great deal of respect for Manchester United and Alex Ferguson, and what they've done for the game of football and would not mind if the Red Devils clinched a share of the title today. Interestingly, Manchester United won the Premier League crown at JJB Stadium last season with a 2-0 victory. I think they will do the same today.

6) Randy Wolf faces Jamie Moyer as the Los Angeles Dodgers attempt to find some semblance of success since the suspension of Manny Ramirez. Their troubles started the day his suspension was announced as they gave up a 6 run lead to the Washington Nationals. Since that game they have gone 1-3. Jamie Moyer may provide some relief for them as the 46 year old veteran has been off his game despite posting a 3-2 record in his first 6 starts. With a 7.26 ERA and 1.81 WHIP he has been fortunate to have the Phillies' bats behind him, providing plenty of run support. He has given up 4 to 6 earned runs in all but one start this season, including 7 earned runs in 2¹/₃ innings to the Mets in his last start. Randy Wolf has done well this season for the Dodgers, with a 2.95 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 7 starts. In his last three starts he has given up a total of 2 earned runs and 12 hits. The Philadelphia Phillies have not done so well batting in their last three games, with a .187 batting average and .319 slugging average resulting in 9 runs. That is well below their offensive production this season and I expect they will give Wolf some trouble today. Even if Wolf has a poor game and gives up 4 to 5 runs I expect Moyer will do the same. The Dodgers have been unfortunate in losing some of these recent games and I think their poor luck will end tonight.

7) The Toronto Blue Jays attempt to add another win to their league leading 23 against the New York Yankees today. The Yankees are 2-2 since Alex Rodriguez returned to the lineup, putting a bit of a damper on their hopes since their 4-0 win over Baltimore where Rodriguez hit a home run on the first pitch he faced. Scott Richmond will be pitching for Toronto, and he has had a very good start to his second season in the Majors with a 3.29 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Richmond did get a bit touched up in his last start in Oakland as the A's got 7 hits off of him leading to 5 earned runs. Andy Pettite, sporting a 4.38 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, will be pitching opposite Richmond. Pettite also had a good start to the season but has been quite hittable in his past two starts, giving up a total of 10 earned runs off 18 hits to Tampa Bay and the Angels. In their past three games it has been the Yankees who have been struggling offensively. The Yankees are averaging 3.3 runs in those games with a .227 batting average. Their slugging is what has given them even those few runs. The Blue Jays have been better with a .333 batting average and .472 slugging average in their last three games. The Blue Jays are batting nearly .300 on the season so I don't expect them to fall off their recent hot hitting too much. The Yankees should also see an improvement in batting against an inexperienced pitcher. I do think Pettite is more likely to have a good game today as I would not expect him to be shelled three starts consecutively. With Richmond being so young and the Yankees' bats due to wake up I think New York has the advantage overall. Still, the Blue Jays have been so strong offensively that even a good performance by Pettite will yield 3 or 4 runs. With the Yankees' bullpen posting far inferior numbers to Toronto's I think the Blue Jays will pull off victory, even if they find themselves down 3 or 4 after 6 innings.

9) In Game 4 the Denver Nuggets were unable to pull off another miracle as in Game 3. Now they return to Denver with their second chance to close out this series. After Mavericks' owner Mark Cuban's remarks to Kenyon Martin's mother and his unwanted apology insinuating the series would return to Dallas the Nuggets will be looking to win big. The line graphs above show the distributions of Denver's home margins of victory and Jason Terry's away points plus assists based on their averages this season, playoffs and regular season combined. The bar graphs show how many games Terry has had with a specific number of points and assists and how many games the Nuggets have won by a certain number of points. The graph leaves off 3 games which the Nuggets won by more than 22 points. Jason Terry averages between 5 and 6 points plus assists in away games, while the Nuggets have won 38 home games by an average of 12 points or so. That makes this a massacre pick for the Nuggets, but when you look at their head-to-head results Terry averages 7.75 points and assists in games played at Denver. This is represented by the glow near the bar over '8' on the graph. The Nuggets have won those 4 home games against Dallas by an average of 7.75 points, so the prop is actually pretty even. I like the Nuggets here, however, because the two times Jason Terry won this prop were in the regular season games, where Dallas lost by only 2 and 3 points. The Nuggets have had the larger winning margin in both playoff games, winning by 12 and 14 points. I think the Nuggets will play hard in this game and win by double digits yet again. Remember, the last time Denver lost they won the next game by 58 points, and that was on the road. Sure, Dallas is better, but that's why I'm thinking Denver only wins by 10 to 15.

10) The Cincinnati Reds continued their winning ways, having won 5 of their last 6. In their last three games Cincinnati have recorded 12, 18, and 6 hits. They are still batting incredibly well, at .313 in their last three and slugging .583 leading to 23 runs being scored. Arizona's offense has picked up after being fairly anemic for most of the season and they have scored 16 runs in their last three games. Now Arizona must go up against Johnny Cueto who has a 1.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in his first 6 starts. After giving up 8 hits and 4 runs to the Pirates in his opener Cueto has not allowed more than 1 run in any game this season. Bryan Augenstein will be getting his first major league start after pitching in the minor leagues for nearly two years. His numbers there have been phenomenal. In 5 starts for AA Mobile this season he has a 5-0 record to go with a 0.79 ERA and 0.67 WHIP. It's difficult to say whether that success will translate to the Majors, but he has been successful at every level of competition he's played at. I think the Reds will continue to cool off at the plate and Augenstein has a good shot at keeping Arizona in the game. Even though I think this will be a pitchers duel, because Augenstein is an unknown at this level the advantage has to go to the Reds. Cincinnati's bullpen also holds the edge. Take the Diamondbacks if you think Cueto is due for a poor start and Augenstein will prove his worth, but otherwise the Reds are the better pick.

11) The Oakland Athletics scored 12 runs by the end of the 5^th inning against the Royals yesterday. Against Bannister they will probably struggle to score any runs in the first 6 innings. Josh Outman is pitching for Oakland and aside from his relief pitching efforts he's given up a few runs in each start and has been lucky to have not given up more. Each team averages over 2.5 runs scored in the first 5 innings this season. The graph below shows Kansas City's scoring in the first 5 innings this season. You can see how their scoring goes up and down every two or three games, likely reflecting their facing different pitchers in the opposing team's rotation. The light red line is their five game average and one can see that it's at a low point for the season. I expect them to score 4 runs on their own off of Outman and raise that average. Since Oakland just scored 12 runs and they're facing a top pitcher from Kansas City I did not include their scoring. I think it will be close, but if Oakland can score 1 run it will go over.

May 12th, 2009 Picks

And the losing continues. I really wish I'd taken Rashard Lewis the other day, and Delonte West today would have been a good one. Fortunately it looks like a number of good props on the board tomorrow. Today I lost with Rajasthan Royals as they had a terrible game batting and lost by 53 runs. Then I lost with Middlesbrough who were thoroughly dominated and only scored one by virtue of a Newcastle United own goal. After that I passed on the Cleveland Indians to take the Pens. It was a close game but the Penguins gave up two goals in one minute of the 3^rd period leading to overtime. Once again the team I picked was not the team who scored in the OT. My final pick was the Washington Nationals. With two outs already Fred Lewis hit a routine pop fly to left field but Josh Willingham ran too far forward and it landed behind him. That allowed two runs to score and Daniel Cabrera proceeded to walk 4 straight batters, walking in two runs. His reliever, Kensing, proceeded to walk a third run in before retiring the side. Without those 5 runs the score was 7-6 in favor of the Nationals, but alas they could not escape their own sloppy play. So on to the picks.

1) Kings XI Punjabi vs. Mumbai Indians – Mumbai
2) Burnley @ Reading – Reading win
3) Boston Bruins @ Carolina Hurricanes – Carolina
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles – Tampa Bay
5) St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Pittsburgh
6) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies – Los Angeles
7) Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics – Boston
8) Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins – Detroit
9) Carlos Lee vs. Todd Helton – Helton runs, hits, and RBIs
10) Cincinnati Reds total hits vs. Dan Haren strikeouts – Haren strikeouts
11) Detroit Red Wings @ Anaheim Ducks – Detroit
12) Kansas City Royals @ Oakland Athletics – Oakland
13) Ryan Zimmerman's Hit Streak: Reaches 30 Games vs. Ends at 29 - Reaches 30 games
14) Luis Scola pts. vs. Los Angeles Lakers win margin – Lakers win margin

Analysis
1) Kings XI Punjabi currently lie 1 point above Mumbai Indians in the tables with 5 victories to 4 victories and 1 washout for the Indians. These two teams met earlier in the tournament with Kings XI Punjab winning 119/8 to 116/7. Tendulkar, a world class South African cricket player and considered one of Mumbai's top batsmen, scored 1 run in 6 balls before getting out. Dumini recorded one of his league leading 4 half-centuries but it was not enough with Mumbai batting poorly all around. The Hindu online have a nice preview on this match. They note that Tendulkar has been inconsistent batting and Harbhajan Singh has not been bowling as well as expected. One of the best previews on the match comes from CricInfo. Both teams are coming off of solid victories. Mumbai Indians just defeated Royal Challengers Bangalore 157/2 to 141/7. With only two wickets they had only 4 batsmen for all 20 overs. Duminy and Rahane each recorded half-centuries and their bowlers were just economical enough. Kings XI Punjabi are coming off a nail-biter victory over Deccan Chargers, 169/7 to 168/5. They recorded the winning runs with one ball remaining. They received strong contributions up and down their order with 5 batsmen having a strike rate over 100. The strike rate is simply runs divided by balls multiplied by 100. The Indians have solid bowling, and it will be strengthened further if Zaheer Khan can pass his late fitness test. Kings XI Punjabi have more batting strength along their order but do not have stars like Dunimy or Tendulkar. Since Kings XI have so many potentially strong batsmen the Mumbai bowlers will need to be economical, i.e. avoid giving up fours and sixes. With Mumbai relying on three or four batsmen for their run production Kings XI will want to put a premium on strike bowling. Kings XI Punjabi are slightly favored, but I like Mumbai to limit their run production and am counting on Tendulkar and Rahane to have a high strike rate.

2) Burnley travel to Madejski Stadium to take on Reading for the 2^nd leg of their English Championship League promotion semi-final. Burnley lead 1-0 in aggregate after scoring a late penalty kick in the 1^st leg. The first leg displayed little of the free flowing, attacking, style of football these clubs are known for. Andre Bikey was sent off for Reading in injury time and will be serving a four-match suspension for his behavior afterwards. Kevin Doyle received a knock for Reading, and he is still a major injury doubt for today's match. The Royals are facing a number of other injury concerns as well, with Chris Armstrong, Graeme Murty, and Ivar Ingimarsson still out. James Harper and Leroy Lita trained but are not yet fit, though the Reading Chronicle see Lita and David Mooney fighting for a spot as substitutes which could help Reading's attack late in the match. Chris Eagles suffered a knock for Burnley in the first leg, but Owen Coyle is confident he will figure in the second. Burnley will be at full strength then, and Reading will have major injury concerns, but Reading, having played in the Premier League the past two seasons, have had the money to build a large squad with quality reserves. SkySport carry a preview on the match and they favor Burnley to advance, if not win the leg outright. Bettingzone agree, giving Burnley a fantastic chance of winning, considering the odds on them. Many books have Reading as 10/11 favorites, which comes out to about 50%, and Burnley at 7/2 with the draw at 9/4, or about 21.3% and 28.7%, respectively. Those odds must be based off of each sides form over the season, where Reading scored 40 goals at home and conceded only 17. Reading have not won at home in their past 8 matches there, however, and Burnley have been strong down the stretch. In all honesty Burnley should be able to secure the draw, but I am putting faith in Reading regaining their form in a must win match against a strong opponent.

5) The Pittsburgh Pirates try to stem a flood of losses after they lost their 8^th straight to the New York Mets 8-4. In that losing streak are two losses at St. Louis, with one loss coming to Wellemeyer and the other loss coming with Zach Duke pitching. That does not bode well for the Pirates as Wellemeyer and Duke face off for the second time this season. In the first matchup Duke got the better of the two, throwing for 6¹/₃ innings and allowing 3 runs, 1 of them earned, off of 5 hits. Wellemeyer gave up 12 hits resulting in 5 earned runs in 5 innings pitched, and the Pirates won the game 7-4. Wellemeyer has had a few other similar performances this season, but he has been solid in his previous two starts. He pitched against Pittsburgh on the 7^th for 7 innings, giving up 2 earned runs on 4 hits in a 5-2 victory for St. Louis. Duke's last start was a loss against the Cardinals, where he gave up 6 hits and 4 earned runs in 5¹/₃ innings. Both teams have been batting a bit below average in their last three games. The Cardinals have a .243 batting average and .411 slugging average while the Pirates are batting .248 and slugging .366 in that time so there's no saying either team is due to have a poor or grand performance at the plate. I think Zach Duke is not likely to have two consecutive poor outings, and Wellemeyer is likely to have a bad start after two solid outings. If that happens the Pirates will need their bullpen to get back to their opening form for the season where they had people talking about how much they'd improved. After 8 straight losses the Pirates are due for a win, and Duke is the pitcher to deliver it to them. With the batting favoring the Cardinals it should be a close one either way.

6) Clayton Kershaw gets the start for the Dodgers tonight against Chan Ho Park for the Phillies. Kershaw does not have the best numbers for this season, with a 4.91 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in his first 6 starts. He had two games in which he was absolutely rocked, pitching for 9 innings with a 15.00 ERA and 2.44 WHIP against the Astros and the Rockies. In the other 24 innings he's pitched he has a 1.13 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, Cy Young numbers. He is young, so he could come out tonight against the strong bats of the Phillies and give up another 5 or 6 runs before the game is half over, but I think he will continue to be the ace he's developing into. Chan Ho Park is in his 16^th season in the Majors and has had an inauspicious start to this one. He's given up 20 earned runs in 5 starts though the offense has bailed him out more than once in getting back the runs he's given up. Park is coming off his first truly solid start of the season, where he pitched for 6 scoreless innings, giving up a single hit against the New York Mets. The Phillies have had a difficult time at the plate in their past three games with a .194 batting average, though guys like Werth, Rollins, and Utley have not left them hanging when it comes to long balls. The Dodgers have been OK at the plate with a .277 batting average in their past 3 games, but have found the fences a bit further than they remember since Manny Ramirez was suspended. I'm thinking Park will have a fairly good game, but still give up 4 or 5 runs before being relieved, and the Phillies will not be able to come back in this one against a very good Dodgers bullpen.

9) Below are a couple of line graphs that compare the proportion of games Carlos Lee and Todd Helton have had with 1, 2, 3, etc. runs, hits, and RBIs. The top graph shows their numbers from the 2008 season and this season together. The bottom graph shows this season's numbers alone. One thing that is apparent is that Carlos Lee rarely had a game without a hit, run, or RBI in 2008, but has been going without more often this season. One can also see that Todd Helton has fewer big games, with 4 or 5 runs, hits, and RBIs with more games at 2 or 3. Overall this season Helton has gotten 3 or more runs, hits, and RBIs in 41.1% of his games. Carlos Lee has gotten 3 or more in 47.3% of his games. That would favor Carlos Lee in this matchup, but the pitching here favors Todd Helton a great deal. Based on their numbers from the past two seasons Paulino could be expected to give up 2 more runs in 6 innings than Jiminez. The Rockies' batting numbers are stronger overall and they have scored more runs per game, with 4.9 compared to 4.2 runs for the Astros. Finally, the Rockies' relievers have put up better numbers and I think could be fairly expected to give up fewer hits, runs, and RBIs than their counterparts from the Astros. Although Lee has been more likely to rack up the numbers I think Helton will be more likely to in this game.
10) The Cincinnati Reds started the season out slowly at the plate but have really found their groove since then. They have recorded 9 hits or more in their past 6 games and it's clear from the timeline below they have been averaging more and more hits as the season has gone on. Obviously that trend cannot continue and I think their 3 game average is about to drop from around 10 hits per game. As for Dan Haren, he has been having a good season, averaging 7.3 strikeouts per game. In 2008 and 2009 he had 19 of 40 gamse with 7 or more strikeouts. That's very close to half of his starts and I think he'll get at least 7 strikeouts in this game. The question is whether the Reds will have 7 or fewer hits. It would be on the low end of total hits for the Reds, but I figure they are seriously due for a poor game. Honestly, however, if you want to hedge your bets the Reds total hits is the better pick.
14) The Los Angeles Lakers got embarrassed by the Houston Rockets in Game 4. Without Yao Ming most people figured the Lakers would just be too much for the Rockets, who won Game 1 of the series in L.A. mostly due to the 7'6" center's efforts. It was exactly the opposite as the Rockets went up big early and never looked back. The Lakers had almost no intensity on the defensive end and the Rockets took advantage of that. Even with the Lakers playing poorly on defense Luis Scola only scored 11 points. Without Yao Ming in the lineup Scola has averaged 17.5 points this season. I have to think that with Gasol and Odom in the lineup Scola will score 12 or fewer points, especially with Los Angeles sure to amp it up on defense. The Lakers have beaten Houston three times in L.A., by 12, 13, and 29 points and I think they will win by at least 12 again.

May 11th, 2009 Picks

Oh man, my 5 streak went down the drain as I followed the herd and took the Lakers. I mean I knew the Rockets could play competitively without Yao or Mutumbo, but I thought the Lakers would at least play a tiny bit of defense. Magic Johnson put it best when he said it was embarrassing for a Lakers team to put forth that kind of defensive performance.

I avoided Rashard Lewis afterwards, NBA having shafted me and all, and took the Tampa Bay Rays. Papelbon was a whiz after allowing batters on 1st and 3rd with no outs. He struck out Carlos Pena, who found it prudent to swing the bat with the count 1 and 3. Upton and Crawford fared no better, getting balls when they rested the bat and strikes when they swung it. Bitterness aside the Red Sox did well to get 3 runs off of Garza and their relief pitching was 100% solid. Ah well, on to the picks. It's only going to get better.

1) Deccan Chargers vs. Rajasthan Royals – Rajasthan
2) Middlesbrough @ Newcastle United – Middlesbrough win or draw
3) Washington Capitals @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Pittsburgh
4) Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians – Cleveland
5) Delonte West vs. Josh Smith – West pts. and ast.
6) Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets – New York
7) Vancouver Canucks @ Chicago Blackhawks – Vancouver
8) Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks – Denver
9) Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Cincinnati
10) Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants – Washington

Analysis
1) Hyderabad Deccan Chargers and Rajasthan Royals are tied in the standings with 5 wins apiece and the Chargers with a game in hand. You can find the standings for the Indian Premier at www.iplt20.com. Deccan lost to Rajasthan on May 2nd, the last time they played. It was a very close game, however, with Rajasthan winning by 3 wickets with 2 innings, out of 120, left. Since then Rajasthan have continued their good form, winning by 78 runs over a Kings XI Punjab team who have allowed 138 runs per match so far this season. They also won by 7 wickets with a full 30 innings remaining over Bangalore Royal Challengers. Deccan Chargers have continued to lose a series of close games, most recently by 3 wickets with 1 inning remaining to the same Kings XI Punjab team Rajasthan beat so soundly. As usual Cricinfo have a terrific preview of the match. Another nice preview can be found at The Hindu. The consensus seems to be that Rajasthan have superior bowling ability and that will give them the edge in this match. If Deccan are to win they will need big performances from Gibbs, Gilchrist, and especially Symonds with Dwayne Smith being tied to his West Indies side for a test match. You can check each sides homepage for stats and news by clicking on their logos. I think Deccan Chargers have a good shot to win this match, they should not be losing so many matches so closely, but I will go with the team with the better recent form. Of course, we all know how quickly teams can go from hot to cold in baseball, and I expect it's much the same in cricket.

2) Widely considered one of the biggest relegation battles of the season and one of the most important Tyne-Tees 'derbys' ever. Both Newcastles United and Middlesbrough would catch Hull City for the last safety position in terms of points, though Middlesbrough would need a 2-0 victory to catch Hull in terms of goal differential. Still, both teams are battling to avoid relegation and I expect they will give it their best. Both teams have been in rather poor form recently, with Middlesbrough going 1-1-3 in their past 5 matches, and 0-0-5 in their past 5 away matches. Newcastle United are 0-2-3 in their past 5 matches at home, and overall with one of those draws being against Everton. There is a good preview from goal.com who predict a 1-1 draw out of this match. The EPL webpage also carries a preview of the match. They point out the injury concerns and suspensions for each side very clearly. Middlesbrough is missing captain Pogatetz and Riggott on defense, and Newcastle United is missing Joey Barton at midfield, Enrique on defense, and Ameobi at forward. The odds on a Newcastle United win are around 45.8% to 47.4%. The draw gets the next best odds, around 27.3% to 28.6%, and a Middlesbrough win around 24.7% to 25.8%, though the injuries to Riggott and Pogatetz hurt 'Boro's chances. If I had to guess the score it would be 0-0, a draw.

4) Both the White Sox and the Indians are coming off of poor series, with the White Sox going 1-2 against Texas and scoring 4 runs in those three games and the Indians going 0-3 against Detroit while scoring 3 runs. Both teams batted under .200 and slugged under .225 in those series. The starting pitching for tonight's game is cause for hope in both teams. Gavin Floyd has an ERA of 6.29 and a WHIP of 1.75 this season and is coming off a 6 run, 6 hit, 5 inning outing against the Royals. Carl Pavano has a 6.61 ERA and 1.53 WHIP this season, but has been doing rather well lately. His first start of the season put his numbers in a hole when he pitched 1 inning and gave up 9 runs against Texas. In his past 13¹/₃ innings pitched he's given up only 4 runs on 11 hits. Cleveland and Chicago have each enjoyed success against the opposing pitcher, with Chicago batting .268 in 41 at bats against Pavano and Cleveland batting .323 in 62 at bats against Floyd. With both teams due to rebound in the hits department I would give the advantage to Cleveland who have better overall batting numbers this season than the Sox and who have a pitcher on the mound who has been successful recently. Their bullpen won't help out any, but I think they'll have a large enough lead after 6 to get the win.

5) The Cleveland Cavaliers look to sweep the Atlanta Hawks and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. It's nearly assured with the way the Cavs have been playing in these playoffs and so the matchup today pairs Delonte West's points and assists on the road against Josh Smith's points at home. Looking at the two it appears to be a very even matchup. Delonte West has averaged 14 points and assists on the road during the season and through the playoffs while Smith has averaged 15.8 points at home. Looking at their numbers facing the opposition, however, the advantage goes to Delonte West with their numbers being switched. In Atlanta this season West has had 14, 16, and 14 points and assists, while Smith has had 12, 8, and 18 points against the Cavaliers at home. Looking at their histograms it appears that each player is about as likely to score above or below their average as they are to score right at their average. If Josh Smith puts in an inspired performance in this elimination game he should win easily, but Delonte West has been pretty steady in netting 15 assists and points. It's very close, so bet on Smith if you believe he will pull out his best game of the year against Cleveland tonight.

8) The Denver Nuggets are also looking to sweep their opponents, the Dallas Mavericks. Game 3 ended with the Nuggets winning after a controversial finish, where Antoine Wright attempted to foul Carmelo Anthony intentionally. When the foul was not called Anthony continued to get in position and sink a game winning three-pointer with 1 second remaining. The Dallas Mavericks played their guts out in that game, with strong defense helping the Nuggets along to 6 of 24 shooting (.250) in the first quarter. They did a terrific job playing with the Nuggets on the fast break, limiting their chances at open layups or dunks. It would be understandable if the Mavericks came out a bit deflated and were unable to match that intensity from Game 3, but that wouldn't befit a playoff basketball team. The Mavericks should come out with just as much, if not more intensity that the Nuggets will be hard pressed to match. We all saw what happened to the Lakers when they played the Rockets without Yao Ming, and they weren't even in as secure a position with the series 2-1 instead of 3-0 as it is here. Still, I think the Nuggets will play better offensively than they did in Game 3 and that should at least partially make up for the drop off in defense I see coming from the Nuggets. What it adds up to is another close game that will come down to the wire. I have Denver winning here by putting faith in their killer instinct. If they drop off on the defensive end by much they won't be able to pull off another miracle win like they did in Game 3. If you think the Nuggets will be satisfied with a series win in Denver in Game 5 then you would do well to take the Mavericks here.

10) The Washington Nationals still have the worse record in baseball, but after wins against the Cardinals, Astros, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks are only a game or two behind Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Colorado, and Oakland. A big part of their recent success has been a surge of offense from Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn, and Cristian Guzman. For the season the Nationals are batting .274 and slugging .438 which is significantly better than the Giants' numbers, .247 batting and .354 slugging. San Francisco is 2-1 in their last three games, and even though they have been batting well they really haven't been able to get any extra bases out of their hits. They will be facing Daniel Cabrera who has a 4.85 ERA and 1.82 WHIP so far this season. Cabrera has a tendency to walk batters and it gets him into trouble and keeps him from going past 5 innings many times. I can see the Giants finding some long balls against Cabrera and scoring 4 or 5 runs before Cabrera is relieved before the 6th inning. The big question for this game is which Randy Johnson will show up. He pitched against Colorado in his last two starts, pitching 7 scoreless innings in one start and then giving up 7 earned runs in 5²/₃ innings in his very next start. If Johnson shuts down the Nationals it will be a win for the Giants, but if Zimmmerman, Dunn, and Guzman can swing at the right pitches the Giants will find themselves in a difficult hole to climb out of. Even if Johnson does not give up 7 earned runs, if he is unable to pitch late into the game the Nationals will have the advantage batting against the bullpen.

May 10th, 2009 Picks

1-0-0 today, and I'll consider myself beyond lucky to have gotten it. After I passed on Kenny Perry, Fulham, Tiger Woods' 69 or worse third round, the Rays, and the Braves I knew I had to get one before my picks started to go south, so I took the Denver Nuggets. It was brutal watching their performance in the first half, with so many shots of every kind just refusing to fall. It was a tad heartening to see them actually up 3 at the half, but I had a feeling they were on a path to defeat.

The second half was a close fought battle all the way, but it appeared the Mavericks had momentum on their side, especially after Jason Terry's late three put them up four points. Carmelo Anthony made a dunk with 28 seconds remaining, and Nowitzki followed it with a miss and Denver got the rebound with 6 seconds left. Out of the timeout they ran an isolation play for Anthony who nearly lost the ball while moving to the right wing. Antoine Wright appeared to foul Anthony but the whistle was not blown and 'Melo followed through with a go-ahead three pointer with a second left! Dallas missed their catch and shoot opportunity and the Nuggets won Game 3 106-105.

After that result I knew I'd better stay away from any of the other matchups. So on to the picks.

1) Ernie Els vs. Geoff Ogilvy – Els cards a lower front 9 score
2) Chelsea @ Arsenal – Arsenal win
3) St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds – Cincinnati
4) Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers – Chicago
5) Alex Cejka vs. Rest Of Field – Cejka wins the tournament
6) Juventus @ AC Milan – AC Milan win
7) Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
8) Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets – Los Angeles
9) San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers – San Francisco
10) Ryan Getzlaf vs. Johan Franzen – Getzlaf goals and ast.
11) Carolina Hurricanes @ Boston Bruins – Carolina
12) Ray Allen vs. Rashard Lewis – Lewis pts.
13) Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox – Tampa Bay

Analysis
1) Geoff Ogilvy has been having a very good Tour this year. He’s made the cut in all 10 events he’s participated in and has two wins already on his way to making over $3 million. Ernie Els has been fairly impressive in his own right, making the cut in 11 of 12 events participated in, but with only two top 10 finishes to his credit. The two events Els finished in the top 10, the WGC Accenture Match Play tournament and the Mercedes-Benz Open, happen to be the two events Ogilvy has come away the winner. Results-wise then Ogilvy has been the better golfer this year. A quick look at Ernie Els’ stats and Geoff Ogilvy’s stats shows Ogilvy has a slightly better scoring average and a fairly large advantage in putting average. He also averages one more birdie per round than Els. The one stat where Els has an advantage is driving accuracy and that has held true in this tournament, with Els driving 59.5% of his fairways through three rounds and Ogilvy driving 47.6% of his. On the front 9 Els has been better too, with 8 birdies, 2 bogeys, and 1 double bogey compared to 6 birdies and 5 bogeys for Ogilvy. Els has also had a lower putting average per green in regulation in this tournament. Since 2001 Els has an average front 9 score of -0.3, and a median score of even par in 29 rounds at Sawgrass, though he’s carded 2 under par more often than any other score. Geoff Ogilvy has an average score of even par and a median score of -1 in 21 rounds at Sawgrass since 2001. Since 2005, however, Els has been a bit better, with an average score of -0.4 and a median score of even par in 19 rounds while still carding 2 under par more often than any other score. Ogilvy has an average score of +0.5 and a median score of even par, while carding 1 under par most often in 15 rounds. Ogilvy has had 7 of those 15 rounds at even par or better on the front 9, while Els has 13 of 19 rounds at even par or better. This will be only the 4^th time in 8 tries Ogilvy has made the cut at TPC Sawgrass, where his previous final round front nine scores have been even par, -2, and +3. This will be the 7^th time in 8 tries Els has made the cut, with his final round scores being even par, -2, -4, -1, +1, and -2. The historical performance only slightly favors Els, but I’ll go with the player who has done better on the front 9 this weekend and has had the more accurate drives.

Ogilvy has bogeyed the first and third holes shown above the past two rounds each. Els double bogeyed the middle hole last round. Click on the image for a Readers Digest tour of TPC Sawgrass.

2) Chelsea visit the Emirates Stadium to face Arsenal with both teams coming off of disappointing Champions League exits. Disappointing for Arsenal because of their poor overall form, and disappointing for Chelsea because their superior form was not enough to overcome a single goal after 183 minutes of shutting the opposition out. Arsenal will want to regain some of their form which has seen them go undefeated in Premier League play against Manchester United, Chelsea, and Liverpool so far this season. Chelsea will be looking to put the past behind them and play with the same form and added composure. Here is a preview from SkySports which foresees both Arshavin and Drogba starting for this match. The Daily Mirror, a British tabloid, had five analysts make predictions with three calling for a win by Arsenal, one a win by Chelsea, and one a draw.They point out Arsenal have won only twice in 13 previous matches against Chelsea in any competition. Goal.com offers a 2-2 draw as a prediction. Then there is a great preview with a number of trends from BBC News. Notably, Chelsea has not had much success in the Premier League against the Big Four, with only a single draw to go along with a string of losses thus far. Finally, the Daily Telegraph offers a short preview. They highlight the matchup between Theo Walcott and Ashley Cole and have neither Drogba nor Arshavin in each team's probable Starting XI. I have to give Arsenal the advantage at home with Almunia and their defense conceding fewer goals at the Emirates than Cech and Co. have conceded away from Stamford Bridge. Based on that I computed odds of 38.5% for an Arsenal win, 30.9% for a Chelsea win, and 30.6% for a draw. SkyBet has fractional odds that convert to 37.9% for an Arsenal win, 32.9% for a Chelsea win, and 29.2% for a draw. The online books cataloged by livegoals.com have Chelsea's odds a couple of percentage points better at the expense of Arsenal's odds. Chelsea really has appeared to be the better side recently, but there is a lot of history that suggests Arsenal will get the result here.

3) The Cincinnati Reds look to complete a 3 game sweep of the visiting St. Louis Cardinals today with Edinson Volquez on the mound. Volquez started out the season a bit rough against the Mets and the Brewers. Since then he's recorded 27 terrific innings, allowing 4 earned runs and 9 hits total. He does have a tendency to walk a large number of batters, but his high ground out-to-fly out ratio, over 1.20, helps him get out of jams. The Reds' recent string of success is also due to strong hitting. In their past three games, all victories, they have batted .330 and have a slugging average of .543, which is about as good as it gets in the Majors. They will attempt to maintain that level of offense against Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has done well for the Cardinals, racking up a 3-1 record with a 4.08 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in his first six starts of the season. He is coming off a poor performance against the Phillies in which he pitched for 6 innings and gave up 6 earned runs off of 9 hits. The Cardinals have also been slumping at the plate, with a .237 batting average and .318 slugging average in their last three games. I imagine the Reds will hit worse than they have been, and the Cardinals a bit better, but not too much so with Wainwright still allowing hits and Volquez limiting the Cardinals' return to normalcy.

6) AC Milan have been playing incredible football lately, having overtaken Juventus for 2^nd place in Serie A. Their last 5 matches have been wins, outscoring their opponents 13 to 1, including a 3-0 defeat of 7^th place Palermo. Juventus have been going the opposite direction recently, having not won a match since March, a 4-1 thrashing at AS Roma. Since then they have suddenly been unable to keep the opposition out of the net, racking up a string of 4 draws and a 2-3 loss away at Genoa. Two of those draws were at home against relegation clubs Lecce and Chievo Verona. Both teams have their fair share of injury concerns and you can see a list of them in this terrific goal.com preview. Nobody has had trouble recently scoring on Juventus, so the main concern for A.C. Milan is the health of their second string keeper Nelson Dida. If he is unable to play then their third stringer, Zeljko Kalac, would be slotted to make his first start of the season. Dida has been named to the squad and you can see the other Rossoneri who have been called up at Milan's homepage by clicking on their logo. Based on the overall form for the season I would give AC Milan a 46.6% chance of winning, or about +115 on a money line. Based on each team's form form their previous 10 matches I would put AC Milan at 52.3% or about -110. The big questions here are whether Dida or Kalac will be in goal for AC Milan, and whether Juventus will continue their poor form of the past month.

7) The Kansas City Royals were beginning to look like they had truly improved from last season, going 8-1 from the end of April into the beginning of May, before hitting a major road black in the Los Angeles Angels. Including their 3-1 victory over Washburn and the Mariners the Royals are 1-2 while scoring just 4 runs in their last three games. They've only managed to bat .180 and at .213 their slugging percentage has been atrocious. The Royals will start Kyle Davies on the mound, who started well, but has also been having problems lately. He started out decently, pitching 6 or 7 innings and yielding three earned runs or so, nothing too terrible. Since then he has pitched 15 innings, giving up 23 hits, and 16 earned runs. He has walked 8 batters, which is not bad, but has only struck out 4. One of those games was a 5 innings stone which the Royals won, showing how important their batting has been to their success. He will certainly need run support against the Angels who have found plenty of offense without Vlad Guerrero behind Napoli and Matthews, and even Figgins and Izturis. Kansas City may be able to get that support off of Shane Loux who has been an off-and-on pitcher this season. He's on at the moment, however, with a couple of 1 run, 5 hit, performances most recently. I think Loux will aid in continuing the Royals' woes and the Angels will find themselves up early. With their bullpen starting to perform well it's a lead they should keep.

9) Starting for the Giants tonight is Tim Lincecum, the freak of nature. He's fairly diminutive compared to many pitchers out there, but his stuff is about as nasty as it gets. Still, he's young, and as you can see to the left even Lincecum gets rocked for a home run here and there. In 85 at bats against Lincecum the Dodgers have a batting average of .235 and a slugging average of .329, so while Lincecum slows them up, and can shut them down, they can also hit off of him. I have a sneaking suspicion that Lincecum will be having a difficult time tonight in this game. Not so difficult that he is relieved early in the game, but difficult enough that the Giants will have a hard time providing him with enough run support. San Francisco is batting .252 and slugging .330 in their last three games, and were shut out yesterday against the Dodgers. Jeff Weaver has thrown 9 scoreless innings so far this season, but before he left the majors for a year in 2008 the Angels' lineup had his number. In 86 at bats they had 3 home runs, slugging for .453 and batting .256 off of Weaver. I'll pick with Lincecum to hold the Dodgers' heads in the dirt, but let me go on record as saying I have a bad feeling about this one.

12) I'll let the graph do most of the talking. The curves represent a Poisson distribution of points based on each players' average number of points. One of them is based on their points on the road, for Ray Allen, and at home, for Rashard Lewis. The second curve is based on their average number of points against the opposition, Boston or Orlando, from both home and road games. The bars are a histogram of games with a certain number of points, with the second set of bars being for the games against the opposition. Ray Allen's average includes his 51 point game but was left off the graph to fit everything in. Allen scores more points on the road than Lewis does at home but Rashard Lewis averages more against Boston than Allen does against Orlando. I think Lewis represents a mismatch for whoever the Celtics use to defend him, and Courtney Lee can do a good job against Allen and that is why you see a disparity in their points production.

May 9th, 2009 Picks

Well, I suppose I could have added 3 wins to my streak with Perry, the Yankees, and the Lakers, but there were quite a few other picks that would have killed my streak. I mean, Sergio Garcia loses after missing a 7 foot putt on #18, the Cubs lost after leaving the bases loaded and giving up a 2 run homer the next inning, Contreras remains broken and the White Sox are demolished (for the most part) by the Texas Rangers. So, 0-0-0 it was for me yesterday, and today looks to be much more accommodating. And on to the picks.

1) Padraig Harrington vs. Kenny Perry – Perry cards a lower front 9 score
2) Aston Villa @ Fulham – Fulham win
3) Tiger Woods’ 3rd Round Score: 68 or lower vs. 69 or higher – 69 or higher
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox – Tampa Bay
5) Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies – Atlanta
6) Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks – Denver
7) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals - Washington
8) Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins – Seattle
9) Tony Stewart vs. Kyle Busch – Busch has a better final position
10) Mo Williams vs. Mike Bibby – Bibby pts. and ast.
11) Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels – Kansas City
12) Chicago Blackhawks @ Vancouver Canucks – Vancouver

Analysis
1) Padraig Harrington has had more overall success at TPC Sawgrass, finishing in 2nd place in 2003 and 2004, while Kenny Perry has never finished higher than 3rd although he’s played at The Players’ every year, but one, since 1990. Since 2005, however, Harrington has struggled a bit more, missing the cut twice and finishing no higher than 52nd. Kenny Perry has only missed the cut twice in the past 20 years of playing this event and finishing in 15th place last year. This year Kenny Perry has been the more successful golfer by a ways. Harrington has missed the cut in 4 events already this year and has yet to finish in the top 10 of any of the 10 events he’s participated in. Kenny Perry has played in 12 events and missed the cut once while finishing in the top 10 six times, including a playoff loss at the Masters and a playoff win at the FBR Open. Not surprisingly the money leader of the two is also the statistical leader in most categories. You can view Kenny Perry’s stats and Padraig Harrington’s stats by clicking on their names or at pgatour.com. Since 2001 Harrington has played 30 rounds at TPC Sawgrass and has hit even par or better on the front nine 16 times. His average score has been +0.3 and his median score has been even par. Since 2005, however, his average score is +0.9 and his median score is one over par, while his scores have ranged from -2 to +6. From 2001 till now Kenny Perry has played 28 rounds at TPC Sawgrass, carding front 9 scores of even par or better in 20 of those rounds. His average front nine score has been -0.2 and his median score is even par. Since 2005 his average score has been -0.3 and while his median score remains at even par. The image below is what these two players will be looking at as they begin their rounds, hole #1.
3) In 2001 Tiger won this event and had 3 rounds 68 or lower. In the 24 rounds he's played on this course since then he's had 3 rounds 68 or lower. In 2007 his fourth round was a 67 after he carded 75, 73, and 73. You have to go back to 2004 to find another round of 68 or lower for Tiger on this course. His third round was a 68, and his other three rounds were 75, 69, and 73. His first round score was 71 and his second round score was 69, the improvement largely due to an improvement in his putting. He also saw a drop in his driving accuracy in the second round, which his short game can more than make up for, but he risks getting in serious trouble and earning some penalty strokes if he remains inaccurate off the tee. I also think it's difficult to keep a low putting average, so he may miss out on some birdies. He's playing pretty well so far this year, but even when he was the most dominating force on the Tour he rarely carded better than 3 under at Sawgrass. Obviously you have to believe he can do it, but it's unlikely enough for me to take 69 or higher.

4) Scott Kazmir visits Fenway Park to face off against Jon Lester and the Boston Red Sox in a rematch of a game played on April 8^th. Kazmir got the better of that matchup as the Rays won 7-2 thanks to a 4 run 5^th inning. Since then Jon Lester has had a number of decent outings, and one impressive 7 inning shutout while Kazmir followed his first start with a series of strong performances before suddenly becoming a run dispenser in his last two starts, against the Orioles and Twins. Both the Rays and the Red Sox have been hitting the ball well lately. The Rays have a .279 batting average and a .531 slugging average in their last three games, meaning they've been getting their average number of hits but the ball has been flying off their bats. In their last 3 games the Red Sox have a batting average of .337 and a slugging average of .528, which isn't too unusual for them at Fenway. In 248 at bats against Kazmir the Sox are batting .254 and slugging .423 so he can be expected to put a damper on their recent success, assuming he can dial back in to his form at the start of the season. In 127 career at bats the Rays are batting .291 and slugging .457 against Jon Lester so I expect them to be able to score some runs against Lester. The real wild card here is Kazmir. If he's back to form the Rays will win, but if he is lobbing balls over the plates the Red Sox's hot bats will carry them to victory. So, how do you think Lester will do?

5) Javier Vazquez is starting for the Atlanta Braves, and he's been a fairly good pitcher this year. He strikes out 11.6 batters per 9 innings pitched, strikes out over four times as many batters as he walks, has a low 1.27 WHIP, and before he gave up 3 two run homers in his last start had given up only one home run in 32 innings. In 152 at bats against Vazquez the Phillies' batting order has recorded a .211 batting average and .414 slugging average, well below their averages this season. Joe Blanton, on the other hand, has recorded a 6.84 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his 5 starts this season. He is coming off a very solid 6 innings against the St. Louis Cardinals in his last start, allowing only 4 hits and 1 earned run. I'm inclined to think Blanton's performance in that game was due to a combination of the Cardinals' slumping bats, as well as a return to his form from season's past. The Atlanta Braves are hitting the ball fairly well lately, around their season averages of .256 batting and .401 slugging and I think they'll do at least that well against Blanton. The Phillies could very well take a lead and win with hits off of Vazquez near the end of his pitch count, or off of the Braves' bullpen, but overall it's more likely the Braves will maintain a lead.

6) Denver is up 2-0 in this series, and are 6-0 against the Mavericks this season. They've already won twice in Dallas, including a two point win the last time they visited. Denver has been phenomenal in this years playoffs, with their 58 point victory at New Orleans, and terrific play in the fourth quarter to close out teams. It seems Denver is an obvious pick in this matchup, but there are some caveats. Aside from that two point loss to the Nuggets Dallas are 17-1 in their last 18 home games. In that loss to Denver the game could easily have gone either way. Dallas was playing well in Denver in Game 2, but the loss of Josh Howard hurt them. Howard is still injured but is expected to play in Game 3. Then there is the fact that after dominating New Orleans for two games, and taking a 16 point lead in the first quarter of Game 3, Denver ended up losing on a Saturday afternoon to the Hornets. Dallas has been more competitive than the Hornets so Denver can ill afford to slacken their efforts this time around. I think Dallas has a very good shot at winning this game, but I also think Denver will not make the same mistakes they made against the Hornets. If Josh Howard cannot fully take advantage of his athleticism I have to give the edge to the Nuggets to go up 3-0 in this series.

8) Two aces who have had their troubles this season, in Felix Hernandez for the Mariners and Francisco Liriano for the Twins are matched up in today's game. Hernandez is coming off a 6 inning loss to the Texas Rangers, after giving up 6 hits and 2 home runs, resulting in 6 earned runs against him. It's not the first game he's been hittable this season. In his third start the Oakland Athletic's got 7 hits and 5 earned runs off of Hernandez. Still, King Felix is someone who is more than capable of holding a team to 1 run for 7, 8, or 9 innings. In 91 at bats the Minnesota Twins have only hit one home run, and batted .209 against him. Francisco Liriano had a few shaky starts to his season giving up 17 earned runs in 21²/₃ innings, and the Twins losing all four games. He's been much better since then, allowing 4 runs in his last two starts, leading to Minnesota victories. In 92 at bats the Seattle Mariners are batting a pitiful .185 and slugging .208 against Liriano. I would expect both pitchers to do well today and for both teams to struggle to score. That means it could come down to one hit, followed by a walk, and a sacrifice fly or two. The Twins are the much better team offensively, with Mauer, Cuddyer, Crede, and others providing powerful bats. In their last three games the Twins are batting .344 and slugging .505. Compare that to Seattle's three game averages of .230 batting and .280 slugging. I would expect Minnesota to have a poor game at the plate in any case, and with Hernandez pitching that is much more likely. While Liriano should shut down Seattle completely I think they have a better chance of getting a couple of hits leading to a run or two. Seattle's bullpen has also been better in not giving up home runs. They've allowed 0.06 per inning pitched, twice as efficient as the Twins' bullpen who are allowing 0.12 home runs per inning pitched. I actually like Minnesota to win this game, but put more faith in Hernandez's ability to avoid a poor game.
10) The Cleveland Cavaliers have dominated this series, and have done so with a total team effort. LeBron James has obviously dominated, but the other Cavaliers players have been outplaying their counterparts on the Hawks. It's going to be difficult for Mike Bibby to score and get assists when the Hawks are held under 90 points, so it appears as though Mo Williams is the obvious choice here. Looking at the charts above one can see that on the road Williams averages the same number of points and assists as Bibby averages at home. The major difference that's apparent from the histograms is that Bibby is much more consistent. He has a large number of games clustered right around his average. Mo Williams is a bit all over the place, with a moderate number of games below his average, above his average, and in between. Of his 43 road games Williams has 17 games with 15 or fewer points and assists, while Bibby has only 7 with 15 or fewer. Williams also has 15 games with 25 or more points and assists, while Bibby has 12 such games. I have to give the advantage to the player who is less likely to have a low number game, and that would be Mike Bibby.

12) We all know that Zach Greinke is going to lose a game at some point this season, and that he's going to get shelled. The Los Angeles Angels are as good a candidate as any to be the team that does the shelling. In 87 at bats against Greinke their batting order has a combined .299 batting average and a .552 slugging average. Joe Saunders is not a bad pitcher either, with a 3.29 ERA and 1.20 WHIP so far this season he's mostly missing the strikeout numbers to be considered an ace. The Royals have done well against Saunders in the past, however, with a .303 batting average and .576 slugging average in 33 at bats. Personally, I think Saunders has some more batters to face before it can be concluded the Royals have him figured out, but it's safer to say the Angels have Greinke's number. Still, there's no reason to expect Greinke to have his first bad start except that for every shutout or sub 1.00 ERA game he throws means he's more and more likely, but I'm inclined to go with the pitcher who has yet to show friendly stuff to the batters he's faced.