May 11th, 2009 Picks

Oh man, my 5 streak went down the drain as I followed the herd and took the Lakers. I mean I knew the Rockets could play competitively without Yao or Mutumbo, but I thought the Lakers would at least play a tiny bit of defense. Magic Johnson put it best when he said it was embarrassing for a Lakers team to put forth that kind of defensive performance.

I avoided Rashard Lewis afterwards, NBA having shafted me and all, and took the Tampa Bay Rays. Papelbon was a whiz after allowing batters on 1st and 3rd with no outs. He struck out Carlos Pena, who found it prudent to swing the bat with the count 1 and 3. Upton and Crawford fared no better, getting balls when they rested the bat and strikes when they swung it. Bitterness aside the Red Sox did well to get 3 runs off of Garza and their relief pitching was 100% solid. Ah well, on to the picks. It's only going to get better.

1) Deccan Chargers vs. Rajasthan Royals – Rajasthan
2) Middlesbrough @ Newcastle United – Middlesbrough win or draw
3) Washington Capitals @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Pittsburgh
4) Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians – Cleveland
5) Delonte West vs. Josh Smith – West pts. and ast.
6) Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets – New York
7) Vancouver Canucks @ Chicago Blackhawks – Vancouver
8) Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks – Denver
9) Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Cincinnati
10) Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants – Washington

Analysis
1) Hyderabad Deccan Chargers and Rajasthan Royals are tied in the standings with 5 wins apiece and the Chargers with a game in hand. You can find the standings for the Indian Premier at www.iplt20.com. Deccan lost to Rajasthan on May 2nd, the last time they played. It was a very close game, however, with Rajasthan winning by 3 wickets with 2 innings, out of 120, left. Since then Rajasthan have continued their good form, winning by 78 runs over a Kings XI Punjab team who have allowed 138 runs per match so far this season. They also won by 7 wickets with a full 30 innings remaining over Bangalore Royal Challengers. Deccan Chargers have continued to lose a series of close games, most recently by 3 wickets with 1 inning remaining to the same Kings XI Punjab team Rajasthan beat so soundly. As usual Cricinfo have a terrific preview of the match. Another nice preview can be found at The Hindu. The consensus seems to be that Rajasthan have superior bowling ability and that will give them the edge in this match. If Deccan are to win they will need big performances from Gibbs, Gilchrist, and especially Symonds with Dwayne Smith being tied to his West Indies side for a test match. You can check each sides homepage for stats and news by clicking on their logos. I think Deccan Chargers have a good shot to win this match, they should not be losing so many matches so closely, but I will go with the team with the better recent form. Of course, we all know how quickly teams can go from hot to cold in baseball, and I expect it's much the same in cricket.

2) Widely considered one of the biggest relegation battles of the season and one of the most important Tyne-Tees 'derbys' ever. Both Newcastles United and Middlesbrough would catch Hull City for the last safety position in terms of points, though Middlesbrough would need a 2-0 victory to catch Hull in terms of goal differential. Still, both teams are battling to avoid relegation and I expect they will give it their best. Both teams have been in rather poor form recently, with Middlesbrough going 1-1-3 in their past 5 matches, and 0-0-5 in their past 5 away matches. Newcastle United are 0-2-3 in their past 5 matches at home, and overall with one of those draws being against Everton. There is a good preview from goal.com who predict a 1-1 draw out of this match. The EPL webpage also carries a preview of the match. They point out the injury concerns and suspensions for each side very clearly. Middlesbrough is missing captain Pogatetz and Riggott on defense, and Newcastle United is missing Joey Barton at midfield, Enrique on defense, and Ameobi at forward. The odds on a Newcastle United win are around 45.8% to 47.4%. The draw gets the next best odds, around 27.3% to 28.6%, and a Middlesbrough win around 24.7% to 25.8%, though the injuries to Riggott and Pogatetz hurt 'Boro's chances. If I had to guess the score it would be 0-0, a draw.

4) Both the White Sox and the Indians are coming off of poor series, with the White Sox going 1-2 against Texas and scoring 4 runs in those three games and the Indians going 0-3 against Detroit while scoring 3 runs. Both teams batted under .200 and slugged under .225 in those series. The starting pitching for tonight's game is cause for hope in both teams. Gavin Floyd has an ERA of 6.29 and a WHIP of 1.75 this season and is coming off a 6 run, 6 hit, 5 inning outing against the Royals. Carl Pavano has a 6.61 ERA and 1.53 WHIP this season, but has been doing rather well lately. His first start of the season put his numbers in a hole when he pitched 1 inning and gave up 9 runs against Texas. In his past 13¹/₃ innings pitched he's given up only 4 runs on 11 hits. Cleveland and Chicago have each enjoyed success against the opposing pitcher, with Chicago batting .268 in 41 at bats against Pavano and Cleveland batting .323 in 62 at bats against Floyd. With both teams due to rebound in the hits department I would give the advantage to Cleveland who have better overall batting numbers this season than the Sox and who have a pitcher on the mound who has been successful recently. Their bullpen won't help out any, but I think they'll have a large enough lead after 6 to get the win.

5) The Cleveland Cavaliers look to sweep the Atlanta Hawks and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. It's nearly assured with the way the Cavs have been playing in these playoffs and so the matchup today pairs Delonte West's points and assists on the road against Josh Smith's points at home. Looking at the two it appears to be a very even matchup. Delonte West has averaged 14 points and assists on the road during the season and through the playoffs while Smith has averaged 15.8 points at home. Looking at their numbers facing the opposition, however, the advantage goes to Delonte West with their numbers being switched. In Atlanta this season West has had 14, 16, and 14 points and assists, while Smith has had 12, 8, and 18 points against the Cavaliers at home. Looking at their histograms it appears that each player is about as likely to score above or below their average as they are to score right at their average. If Josh Smith puts in an inspired performance in this elimination game he should win easily, but Delonte West has been pretty steady in netting 15 assists and points. It's very close, so bet on Smith if you believe he will pull out his best game of the year against Cleveland tonight.

8) The Denver Nuggets are also looking to sweep their opponents, the Dallas Mavericks. Game 3 ended with the Nuggets winning after a controversial finish, where Antoine Wright attempted to foul Carmelo Anthony intentionally. When the foul was not called Anthony continued to get in position and sink a game winning three-pointer with 1 second remaining. The Dallas Mavericks played their guts out in that game, with strong defense helping the Nuggets along to 6 of 24 shooting (.250) in the first quarter. They did a terrific job playing with the Nuggets on the fast break, limiting their chances at open layups or dunks. It would be understandable if the Mavericks came out a bit deflated and were unable to match that intensity from Game 3, but that wouldn't befit a playoff basketball team. The Mavericks should come out with just as much, if not more intensity that the Nuggets will be hard pressed to match. We all saw what happened to the Lakers when they played the Rockets without Yao Ming, and they weren't even in as secure a position with the series 2-1 instead of 3-0 as it is here. Still, I think the Nuggets will play better offensively than they did in Game 3 and that should at least partially make up for the drop off in defense I see coming from the Nuggets. What it adds up to is another close game that will come down to the wire. I have Denver winning here by putting faith in their killer instinct. If they drop off on the defensive end by much they won't be able to pull off another miracle win like they did in Game 3. If you think the Nuggets will be satisfied with a series win in Denver in Game 5 then you would do well to take the Mavericks here.

10) The Washington Nationals still have the worse record in baseball, but after wins against the Cardinals, Astros, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks are only a game or two behind Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Colorado, and Oakland. A big part of their recent success has been a surge of offense from Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn, and Cristian Guzman. For the season the Nationals are batting .274 and slugging .438 which is significantly better than the Giants' numbers, .247 batting and .354 slugging. San Francisco is 2-1 in their last three games, and even though they have been batting well they really haven't been able to get any extra bases out of their hits. They will be facing Daniel Cabrera who has a 4.85 ERA and 1.82 WHIP so far this season. Cabrera has a tendency to walk batters and it gets him into trouble and keeps him from going past 5 innings many times. I can see the Giants finding some long balls against Cabrera and scoring 4 or 5 runs before Cabrera is relieved before the 6th inning. The big question for this game is which Randy Johnson will show up. He pitched against Colorado in his last two starts, pitching 7 scoreless innings in one start and then giving up 7 earned runs in 5²/₃ innings in his very next start. If Johnson shuts down the Nationals it will be a win for the Giants, but if Zimmmerman, Dunn, and Guzman can swing at the right pitches the Giants will find themselves in a difficult hole to climb out of. Even if Johnson does not give up 7 earned runs, if he is unable to pitch late into the game the Nationals will have the advantage batting against the bullpen.

May 10th, 2009 Picks

1-0-0 today, and I'll consider myself beyond lucky to have gotten it. After I passed on Kenny Perry, Fulham, Tiger Woods' 69 or worse third round, the Rays, and the Braves I knew I had to get one before my picks started to go south, so I took the Denver Nuggets. It was brutal watching their performance in the first half, with so many shots of every kind just refusing to fall. It was a tad heartening to see them actually up 3 at the half, but I had a feeling they were on a path to defeat.

The second half was a close fought battle all the way, but it appeared the Mavericks had momentum on their side, especially after Jason Terry's late three put them up four points. Carmelo Anthony made a dunk with 28 seconds remaining, and Nowitzki followed it with a miss and Denver got the rebound with 6 seconds left. Out of the timeout they ran an isolation play for Anthony who nearly lost the ball while moving to the right wing. Antoine Wright appeared to foul Anthony but the whistle was not blown and 'Melo followed through with a go-ahead three pointer with a second left! Dallas missed their catch and shoot opportunity and the Nuggets won Game 3 106-105.

After that result I knew I'd better stay away from any of the other matchups. So on to the picks.

1) Ernie Els vs. Geoff Ogilvy – Els cards a lower front 9 score
2) Chelsea @ Arsenal – Arsenal win
3) St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds – Cincinnati
4) Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers – Chicago
5) Alex Cejka vs. Rest Of Field – Cejka wins the tournament
6) Juventus @ AC Milan – AC Milan win
7) Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
8) Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets – Los Angeles
9) San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers – San Francisco
10) Ryan Getzlaf vs. Johan Franzen – Getzlaf goals and ast.
11) Carolina Hurricanes @ Boston Bruins – Carolina
12) Ray Allen vs. Rashard Lewis – Lewis pts.
13) Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox – Tampa Bay

Analysis
1) Geoff Ogilvy has been having a very good Tour this year. He’s made the cut in all 10 events he’s participated in and has two wins already on his way to making over $3 million. Ernie Els has been fairly impressive in his own right, making the cut in 11 of 12 events participated in, but with only two top 10 finishes to his credit. The two events Els finished in the top 10, the WGC Accenture Match Play tournament and the Mercedes-Benz Open, happen to be the two events Ogilvy has come away the winner. Results-wise then Ogilvy has been the better golfer this year. A quick look at Ernie Els’ stats and Geoff Ogilvy’s stats shows Ogilvy has a slightly better scoring average and a fairly large advantage in putting average. He also averages one more birdie per round than Els. The one stat where Els has an advantage is driving accuracy and that has held true in this tournament, with Els driving 59.5% of his fairways through three rounds and Ogilvy driving 47.6% of his. On the front 9 Els has been better too, with 8 birdies, 2 bogeys, and 1 double bogey compared to 6 birdies and 5 bogeys for Ogilvy. Els has also had a lower putting average per green in regulation in this tournament. Since 2001 Els has an average front 9 score of -0.3, and a median score of even par in 29 rounds at Sawgrass, though he’s carded 2 under par more often than any other score. Geoff Ogilvy has an average score of even par and a median score of -1 in 21 rounds at Sawgrass since 2001. Since 2005, however, Els has been a bit better, with an average score of -0.4 and a median score of even par in 19 rounds while still carding 2 under par more often than any other score. Ogilvy has an average score of +0.5 and a median score of even par, while carding 1 under par most often in 15 rounds. Ogilvy has had 7 of those 15 rounds at even par or better on the front 9, while Els has 13 of 19 rounds at even par or better. This will be only the 4^th time in 8 tries Ogilvy has made the cut at TPC Sawgrass, where his previous final round front nine scores have been even par, -2, and +3. This will be the 7^th time in 8 tries Els has made the cut, with his final round scores being even par, -2, -4, -1, +1, and -2. The historical performance only slightly favors Els, but I’ll go with the player who has done better on the front 9 this weekend and has had the more accurate drives.

Ogilvy has bogeyed the first and third holes shown above the past two rounds each. Els double bogeyed the middle hole last round. Click on the image for a Readers Digest tour of TPC Sawgrass.

2) Chelsea visit the Emirates Stadium to face Arsenal with both teams coming off of disappointing Champions League exits. Disappointing for Arsenal because of their poor overall form, and disappointing for Chelsea because their superior form was not enough to overcome a single goal after 183 minutes of shutting the opposition out. Arsenal will want to regain some of their form which has seen them go undefeated in Premier League play against Manchester United, Chelsea, and Liverpool so far this season. Chelsea will be looking to put the past behind them and play with the same form and added composure. Here is a preview from SkySports which foresees both Arshavin and Drogba starting for this match. The Daily Mirror, a British tabloid, had five analysts make predictions with three calling for a win by Arsenal, one a win by Chelsea, and one a draw.They point out Arsenal have won only twice in 13 previous matches against Chelsea in any competition. Goal.com offers a 2-2 draw as a prediction. Then there is a great preview with a number of trends from BBC News. Notably, Chelsea has not had much success in the Premier League against the Big Four, with only a single draw to go along with a string of losses thus far. Finally, the Daily Telegraph offers a short preview. They highlight the matchup between Theo Walcott and Ashley Cole and have neither Drogba nor Arshavin in each team's probable Starting XI. I have to give Arsenal the advantage at home with Almunia and their defense conceding fewer goals at the Emirates than Cech and Co. have conceded away from Stamford Bridge. Based on that I computed odds of 38.5% for an Arsenal win, 30.9% for a Chelsea win, and 30.6% for a draw. SkyBet has fractional odds that convert to 37.9% for an Arsenal win, 32.9% for a Chelsea win, and 29.2% for a draw. The online books cataloged by livegoals.com have Chelsea's odds a couple of percentage points better at the expense of Arsenal's odds. Chelsea really has appeared to be the better side recently, but there is a lot of history that suggests Arsenal will get the result here.

3) The Cincinnati Reds look to complete a 3 game sweep of the visiting St. Louis Cardinals today with Edinson Volquez on the mound. Volquez started out the season a bit rough against the Mets and the Brewers. Since then he's recorded 27 terrific innings, allowing 4 earned runs and 9 hits total. He does have a tendency to walk a large number of batters, but his high ground out-to-fly out ratio, over 1.20, helps him get out of jams. The Reds' recent string of success is also due to strong hitting. In their past three games, all victories, they have batted .330 and have a slugging average of .543, which is about as good as it gets in the Majors. They will attempt to maintain that level of offense against Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has done well for the Cardinals, racking up a 3-1 record with a 4.08 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in his first six starts of the season. He is coming off a poor performance against the Phillies in which he pitched for 6 innings and gave up 6 earned runs off of 9 hits. The Cardinals have also been slumping at the plate, with a .237 batting average and .318 slugging average in their last three games. I imagine the Reds will hit worse than they have been, and the Cardinals a bit better, but not too much so with Wainwright still allowing hits and Volquez limiting the Cardinals' return to normalcy.

6) AC Milan have been playing incredible football lately, having overtaken Juventus for 2^nd place in Serie A. Their last 5 matches have been wins, outscoring their opponents 13 to 1, including a 3-0 defeat of 7^th place Palermo. Juventus have been going the opposite direction recently, having not won a match since March, a 4-1 thrashing at AS Roma. Since then they have suddenly been unable to keep the opposition out of the net, racking up a string of 4 draws and a 2-3 loss away at Genoa. Two of those draws were at home against relegation clubs Lecce and Chievo Verona. Both teams have their fair share of injury concerns and you can see a list of them in this terrific goal.com preview. Nobody has had trouble recently scoring on Juventus, so the main concern for A.C. Milan is the health of their second string keeper Nelson Dida. If he is unable to play then their third stringer, Zeljko Kalac, would be slotted to make his first start of the season. Dida has been named to the squad and you can see the other Rossoneri who have been called up at Milan's homepage by clicking on their logo. Based on the overall form for the season I would give AC Milan a 46.6% chance of winning, or about +115 on a money line. Based on each team's form form their previous 10 matches I would put AC Milan at 52.3% or about -110. The big questions here are whether Dida or Kalac will be in goal for AC Milan, and whether Juventus will continue their poor form of the past month.

7) The Kansas City Royals were beginning to look like they had truly improved from last season, going 8-1 from the end of April into the beginning of May, before hitting a major road black in the Los Angeles Angels. Including their 3-1 victory over Washburn and the Mariners the Royals are 1-2 while scoring just 4 runs in their last three games. They've only managed to bat .180 and at .213 their slugging percentage has been atrocious. The Royals will start Kyle Davies on the mound, who started well, but has also been having problems lately. He started out decently, pitching 6 or 7 innings and yielding three earned runs or so, nothing too terrible. Since then he has pitched 15 innings, giving up 23 hits, and 16 earned runs. He has walked 8 batters, which is not bad, but has only struck out 4. One of those games was a 5 innings stone which the Royals won, showing how important their batting has been to their success. He will certainly need run support against the Angels who have found plenty of offense without Vlad Guerrero behind Napoli and Matthews, and even Figgins and Izturis. Kansas City may be able to get that support off of Shane Loux who has been an off-and-on pitcher this season. He's on at the moment, however, with a couple of 1 run, 5 hit, performances most recently. I think Loux will aid in continuing the Royals' woes and the Angels will find themselves up early. With their bullpen starting to perform well it's a lead they should keep.

9) Starting for the Giants tonight is Tim Lincecum, the freak of nature. He's fairly diminutive compared to many pitchers out there, but his stuff is about as nasty as it gets. Still, he's young, and as you can see to the left even Lincecum gets rocked for a home run here and there. In 85 at bats against Lincecum the Dodgers have a batting average of .235 and a slugging average of .329, so while Lincecum slows them up, and can shut them down, they can also hit off of him. I have a sneaking suspicion that Lincecum will be having a difficult time tonight in this game. Not so difficult that he is relieved early in the game, but difficult enough that the Giants will have a hard time providing him with enough run support. San Francisco is batting .252 and slugging .330 in their last three games, and were shut out yesterday against the Dodgers. Jeff Weaver has thrown 9 scoreless innings so far this season, but before he left the majors for a year in 2008 the Angels' lineup had his number. In 86 at bats they had 3 home runs, slugging for .453 and batting .256 off of Weaver. I'll pick with Lincecum to hold the Dodgers' heads in the dirt, but let me go on record as saying I have a bad feeling about this one.

12) I'll let the graph do most of the talking. The curves represent a Poisson distribution of points based on each players' average number of points. One of them is based on their points on the road, for Ray Allen, and at home, for Rashard Lewis. The second curve is based on their average number of points against the opposition, Boston or Orlando, from both home and road games. The bars are a histogram of games with a certain number of points, with the second set of bars being for the games against the opposition. Ray Allen's average includes his 51 point game but was left off the graph to fit everything in. Allen scores more points on the road than Lewis does at home but Rashard Lewis averages more against Boston than Allen does against Orlando. I think Lewis represents a mismatch for whoever the Celtics use to defend him, and Courtney Lee can do a good job against Allen and that is why you see a disparity in their points production.

May 9th, 2009 Picks

Well, I suppose I could have added 3 wins to my streak with Perry, the Yankees, and the Lakers, but there were quite a few other picks that would have killed my streak. I mean, Sergio Garcia loses after missing a 7 foot putt on #18, the Cubs lost after leaving the bases loaded and giving up a 2 run homer the next inning, Contreras remains broken and the White Sox are demolished (for the most part) by the Texas Rangers. So, 0-0-0 it was for me yesterday, and today looks to be much more accommodating. And on to the picks.

1) Padraig Harrington vs. Kenny Perry – Perry cards a lower front 9 score
2) Aston Villa @ Fulham – Fulham win
3) Tiger Woods’ 3rd Round Score: 68 or lower vs. 69 or higher – 69 or higher
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox – Tampa Bay
5) Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies – Atlanta
6) Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks – Denver
7) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals - Washington
8) Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins – Seattle
9) Tony Stewart vs. Kyle Busch – Busch has a better final position
10) Mo Williams vs. Mike Bibby – Bibby pts. and ast.
11) Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels – Kansas City
12) Chicago Blackhawks @ Vancouver Canucks – Vancouver

Analysis
1) Padraig Harrington has had more overall success at TPC Sawgrass, finishing in 2nd place in 2003 and 2004, while Kenny Perry has never finished higher than 3rd although he’s played at The Players’ every year, but one, since 1990. Since 2005, however, Harrington has struggled a bit more, missing the cut twice and finishing no higher than 52nd. Kenny Perry has only missed the cut twice in the past 20 years of playing this event and finishing in 15th place last year. This year Kenny Perry has been the more successful golfer by a ways. Harrington has missed the cut in 4 events already this year and has yet to finish in the top 10 of any of the 10 events he’s participated in. Kenny Perry has played in 12 events and missed the cut once while finishing in the top 10 six times, including a playoff loss at the Masters and a playoff win at the FBR Open. Not surprisingly the money leader of the two is also the statistical leader in most categories. You can view Kenny Perry’s stats and Padraig Harrington’s stats by clicking on their names or at pgatour.com. Since 2001 Harrington has played 30 rounds at TPC Sawgrass and has hit even par or better on the front nine 16 times. His average score has been +0.3 and his median score has been even par. Since 2005, however, his average score is +0.9 and his median score is one over par, while his scores have ranged from -2 to +6. From 2001 till now Kenny Perry has played 28 rounds at TPC Sawgrass, carding front 9 scores of even par or better in 20 of those rounds. His average front nine score has been -0.2 and his median score is even par. Since 2005 his average score has been -0.3 and while his median score remains at even par. The image below is what these two players will be looking at as they begin their rounds, hole #1.
3) In 2001 Tiger won this event and had 3 rounds 68 or lower. In the 24 rounds he's played on this course since then he's had 3 rounds 68 or lower. In 2007 his fourth round was a 67 after he carded 75, 73, and 73. You have to go back to 2004 to find another round of 68 or lower for Tiger on this course. His third round was a 68, and his other three rounds were 75, 69, and 73. His first round score was 71 and his second round score was 69, the improvement largely due to an improvement in his putting. He also saw a drop in his driving accuracy in the second round, which his short game can more than make up for, but he risks getting in serious trouble and earning some penalty strokes if he remains inaccurate off the tee. I also think it's difficult to keep a low putting average, so he may miss out on some birdies. He's playing pretty well so far this year, but even when he was the most dominating force on the Tour he rarely carded better than 3 under at Sawgrass. Obviously you have to believe he can do it, but it's unlikely enough for me to take 69 or higher.

4) Scott Kazmir visits Fenway Park to face off against Jon Lester and the Boston Red Sox in a rematch of a game played on April 8^th. Kazmir got the better of that matchup as the Rays won 7-2 thanks to a 4 run 5^th inning. Since then Jon Lester has had a number of decent outings, and one impressive 7 inning shutout while Kazmir followed his first start with a series of strong performances before suddenly becoming a run dispenser in his last two starts, against the Orioles and Twins. Both the Rays and the Red Sox have been hitting the ball well lately. The Rays have a .279 batting average and a .531 slugging average in their last three games, meaning they've been getting their average number of hits but the ball has been flying off their bats. In their last 3 games the Red Sox have a batting average of .337 and a slugging average of .528, which isn't too unusual for them at Fenway. In 248 at bats against Kazmir the Sox are batting .254 and slugging .423 so he can be expected to put a damper on their recent success, assuming he can dial back in to his form at the start of the season. In 127 career at bats the Rays are batting .291 and slugging .457 against Jon Lester so I expect them to be able to score some runs against Lester. The real wild card here is Kazmir. If he's back to form the Rays will win, but if he is lobbing balls over the plates the Red Sox's hot bats will carry them to victory. So, how do you think Lester will do?

5) Javier Vazquez is starting for the Atlanta Braves, and he's been a fairly good pitcher this year. He strikes out 11.6 batters per 9 innings pitched, strikes out over four times as many batters as he walks, has a low 1.27 WHIP, and before he gave up 3 two run homers in his last start had given up only one home run in 32 innings. In 152 at bats against Vazquez the Phillies' batting order has recorded a .211 batting average and .414 slugging average, well below their averages this season. Joe Blanton, on the other hand, has recorded a 6.84 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his 5 starts this season. He is coming off a very solid 6 innings against the St. Louis Cardinals in his last start, allowing only 4 hits and 1 earned run. I'm inclined to think Blanton's performance in that game was due to a combination of the Cardinals' slumping bats, as well as a return to his form from season's past. The Atlanta Braves are hitting the ball fairly well lately, around their season averages of .256 batting and .401 slugging and I think they'll do at least that well against Blanton. The Phillies could very well take a lead and win with hits off of Vazquez near the end of his pitch count, or off of the Braves' bullpen, but overall it's more likely the Braves will maintain a lead.

6) Denver is up 2-0 in this series, and are 6-0 against the Mavericks this season. They've already won twice in Dallas, including a two point win the last time they visited. Denver has been phenomenal in this years playoffs, with their 58 point victory at New Orleans, and terrific play in the fourth quarter to close out teams. It seems Denver is an obvious pick in this matchup, but there are some caveats. Aside from that two point loss to the Nuggets Dallas are 17-1 in their last 18 home games. In that loss to Denver the game could easily have gone either way. Dallas was playing well in Denver in Game 2, but the loss of Josh Howard hurt them. Howard is still injured but is expected to play in Game 3. Then there is the fact that after dominating New Orleans for two games, and taking a 16 point lead in the first quarter of Game 3, Denver ended up losing on a Saturday afternoon to the Hornets. Dallas has been more competitive than the Hornets so Denver can ill afford to slacken their efforts this time around. I think Dallas has a very good shot at winning this game, but I also think Denver will not make the same mistakes they made against the Hornets. If Josh Howard cannot fully take advantage of his athleticism I have to give the edge to the Nuggets to go up 3-0 in this series.

8) Two aces who have had their troubles this season, in Felix Hernandez for the Mariners and Francisco Liriano for the Twins are matched up in today's game. Hernandez is coming off a 6 inning loss to the Texas Rangers, after giving up 6 hits and 2 home runs, resulting in 6 earned runs against him. It's not the first game he's been hittable this season. In his third start the Oakland Athletic's got 7 hits and 5 earned runs off of Hernandez. Still, King Felix is someone who is more than capable of holding a team to 1 run for 7, 8, or 9 innings. In 91 at bats the Minnesota Twins have only hit one home run, and batted .209 against him. Francisco Liriano had a few shaky starts to his season giving up 17 earned runs in 21²/₃ innings, and the Twins losing all four games. He's been much better since then, allowing 4 runs in his last two starts, leading to Minnesota victories. In 92 at bats the Seattle Mariners are batting a pitiful .185 and slugging .208 against Liriano. I would expect both pitchers to do well today and for both teams to struggle to score. That means it could come down to one hit, followed by a walk, and a sacrifice fly or two. The Twins are the much better team offensively, with Mauer, Cuddyer, Crede, and others providing powerful bats. In their last three games the Twins are batting .344 and slugging .505. Compare that to Seattle's three game averages of .230 batting and .280 slugging. I would expect Minnesota to have a poor game at the plate in any case, and with Hernandez pitching that is much more likely. While Liriano should shut down Seattle completely I think they have a better chance of getting a couple of hits leading to a run or two. Seattle's bullpen has also been better in not giving up home runs. They've allowed 0.06 per inning pitched, twice as efficient as the Twins' bullpen who are allowing 0.12 home runs per inning pitched. I actually like Minnesota to win this game, but put more faith in Hernandez's ability to avoid a poor game.
10) The Cleveland Cavaliers have dominated this series, and have done so with a total team effort. LeBron James has obviously dominated, but the other Cavaliers players have been outplaying their counterparts on the Hawks. It's going to be difficult for Mike Bibby to score and get assists when the Hawks are held under 90 points, so it appears as though Mo Williams is the obvious choice here. Looking at the charts above one can see that on the road Williams averages the same number of points and assists as Bibby averages at home. The major difference that's apparent from the histograms is that Bibby is much more consistent. He has a large number of games clustered right around his average. Mo Williams is a bit all over the place, with a moderate number of games below his average, above his average, and in between. Of his 43 road games Williams has 17 games with 15 or fewer points and assists, while Bibby has only 7 with 15 or fewer. Williams also has 15 games with 25 or more points and assists, while Bibby has 12 such games. I have to give the advantage to the player who is less likely to have a low number game, and that would be Mike Bibby.

12) We all know that Zach Greinke is going to lose a game at some point this season, and that he's going to get shelled. The Los Angeles Angels are as good a candidate as any to be the team that does the shelling. In 87 at bats against Greinke their batting order has a combined .299 batting average and a .552 slugging average. Joe Saunders is not a bad pitcher either, with a 3.29 ERA and 1.20 WHIP so far this season he's mostly missing the strikeout numbers to be considered an ace. The Royals have done well against Saunders in the past, however, with a .303 batting average and .576 slugging average in 33 at bats. Personally, I think Saunders has some more batters to face before it can be concluded the Royals have him figured out, but it's safer to say the Angels have Greinke's number. Still, there's no reason to expect Greinke to have his first bad start except that for every shutout or sub 1.00 ERA game he throws means he's more and more likely, but I'm inclined to go with the pitcher who has yet to show friendly stuff to the batters he's faced.

May 8th, 2009 Picks

1-0-0 yesterday with Luongo fending off enough shots to win pretty easily over Khabibulin 26 to 14. The Canucks only took 15 shots on goal in three periods and overtime. The Blackhawks took 3 or 4 shots more than the Canucks in each period.

I couldn’t bring myself to pull the trigger on the morning baseball picks though. Ah well, at least I didn’t get shat upon with Donald. That was pretty much Poulter shooting the best round of his life at Sawgrass and Donald was just average save that triple bogey on #2. What happened there? Did he just try and hit the green in two and end up in the drink? One way or another it’s on to the picks.

1) Jim Furyk vs. Kenny Perry – Perry cards a lower front 9 score
2) Sergio Garcia vs. Zach Johnson – Garcia cards a lower 2nd round score
3) Rio Ave @ Guimarães – Guimarães win
4) Washington Capitals @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Washington
5) New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles – New York
6) Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic – Boston
7) Joey Logano vs. Brad Keselowski – Keselowski has a better final position
8) Boston Bruins @ Carolina Hurricanes – Carolina
9) Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers – Chicago
10) Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox – Chicago
11) Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets – Los Angeles
12) Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels – Kansas City

Analysis
1) Since Kenny Perry finished 2^nd at the Masters and Jim Furyk finished 10^th Furyk has generally been more successful. Although he missed the cut at the Verizon Heritage he was able to follow that with an 11^th place finish at Quail Hollow and is currently in 14^th at The Players' Championship. Perry finished at even par in the Zurich Classic and is now in 79^th at The Players'. Both players finished at even par on the front 9 in the first round. Furyk ended up playing much better on the back 9, with his putting especially making a difference. Since 2001, in 27 rounds at TPC Sawgrass, Furyk has shot even par or better 17 times on the front nine. His average front 9 score is +0.2, his median score is even par, and he's shot anywhere in between -3 and +4. Kenny Perry has also played 27 rounds in that time, shooting even par or better on the front nine 19 times. His average front 9 score is -0.1, his median score is even par, and he's shot anywhere in between -4 and +3. There have been 23 rounds in which both players golfed. Furyk had the better score 7 times, Perry 10 times, and they had the same score 6 times. You can find Kenny Perry's stats and Jim Furyk's stats on pgatour.com, as well as their first round stats by clicking on their names on the leaderboard. There are a lot of signs pointing towards Furyk as the pick here, but I'll go for the player with the historical odds here. You can see a hole-by-hole tour of the course by clicking on the Sawgrass clubhouse below.

2) Sergio Garcia is the defending champion at The Players Championship. He finished the first round six strokes behind the leader, Ben Crane, who shot a very fine 65. That hasn't stopped Garcia before, who finished two strokes over par after the cut in 2007 before coming back to take 2nd place. Zach Johnson was one stroke worse, carding an even par 72 in the first round. It's an improvement from last year when he shot a 76 in the first round, followed by a 79 before being cut. Johnson was accurate in the first round and found the green in regulation on 13 holes, but his putting average of 1.923 on those holes sunk him. Sergio Garcia hit only 9 holes with a chance to make birdie, but his terrific short game and putting allowed him to get 5 birdies anyways. Since 2001 Garcia has played 31 rounds at TPC Sawgrass and has carded par or better 18 times. His average score has been 71.6 and his median score is 72. Johnson only started playing this event in 2005 and in the 15 rounds he's played has only made par or better 7 times. His average score has been 72.8 and his median score, 73. You can check out Johnson's superior stats on the Tour this year and compare them with Garcia's respectable numbers. It's hard to believe Garcia can avoid staying out of trouble at Sawgrass with his aggressive play, but that's been the case for the most part the past 8 years.

3) Rio Ave is a team battling to keep their spot in the Portuguese Super Liga. Currently, they lie 2 points clear of relegation with 3 matches remaining. They visit Estádio D. Afonso Henriques to take on 8^th place Vitória de Guimarães and it will be difficult for them to get a result having scored only 3 goals in 13 away matches this season. With 9 points left to earn Guimarães have been eliminated from UEFA Cup qualification after making it to the Champions League qualification stage last season. As a traditionally strong club in the Super Liga they have their pride left to play for, and will wish to finish this disappointing season strong. Rio Ave has been in good form recently, winning at home against Trofense and away at Naval 1^o Maio, and drawing at home against S.C. Braga who are currently 5^th in the tables. The victory against Naval 1^o bodes well for Rio Ave as Naval had one more win at home than Guimarães and have the same number of goals scored and conceded as Guimarães as well. Vitória de Guimarães have had a difficult time at home recently, having played F.C. Porto and Sporting Lisbon recently, both losses. They've done better against the bottom half sides, winning 3-1 against Belenenses and 1-0 against Naval 1^o Maio. Both teams are at full strength for this match and you can click on either team's logo to see their `convocados' for this match, the list of players named to the squad. Most European books have their true odds set at around 46% for Guimarães to win, a draw at 28%, and Rio Ave winning at 24%. I calculated similar odds, but with the draw at 33% and Rio Ave winning at 19%. Overall Guimarães should have the quality to win 1-0 or 2-0, but if Rio Ave are tenacious in the backfield this could be a 0-0 draw.

5) The Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees met on opening day with C.C. Sabathia facing off against Jeremy Guthrie. Sabathia gave up 6 runs and 8 hits to the Orioles before being relieved after 4²/₃ innings and the Yankees were down 6-1. The Orioles went on to win the game 10-5. Since then the Orioles have gone 11-17, though they are 2-1 in their last three games, scoring 12 runs while batting .253 and slugging .518. The Yankees are 13-14 since that opening day fiasco, but are currently on a 5 game slide. In their past 3 games they have batted .266 and slugged .431 while scoring 12 runs and giving up 19. Ever since they came back, down 9-4 to the Angels going into the 8^th, to win 10-9, the Yankees' bullpen has been unable to hold on to a lead. I'm inclined to think that run of bad luck is about to come to an end against a Baltimore team whose bullpen is also apt to give up a lead. Neither Sabathia nor Guthrie have had incredible starts to the season. Both have ERA's around 5.00 and both have WHIP's over 1.35. Sabathia has the credentials to suggest he is a better pitcher than those numbers show, however. That means Baltimore will be less likely to provide Guthrie with the run support he'll require as the Yankees have batted .313 and slugged .583 off of Guthrie in their careers. Oh, and I guess Alex Rodriguez is returning to the lineup for New York, though I highly doubt he'll contribute much on offense or help Teixeira see better pitches in his first game. I just see the roles being reversed from opening day in this game and the Yankees coming out victorious.

6) The Boston Celtics travel to Orlando and attempt to regain home court advantage tonight. Rafer Alston was suspended for one game by the NBA for smacking Eddie House upside the head in Game 2 which leaves Orlando with Anthony Carter and Tyronn Lue at the point guard position. Courtney Lee has practiced with the Magic while wearing a protective mask and I fully expect he'll be on the court for this important game. The loss of Alston should not damage Orlando's aspirations too greatly as Carter and Lue are capable enough at running the offense and neither they, nor Alston, are too likely to slow Rajon Rondo. That matchup will be a big advantage for the Celtics throughout the series. Boston will also need Glen Davis, Kendrick Perkins, and Brian Scalabrine to step up on both ends of the court. Scalabrine especially can be a boost with his three point shooting. The Magic have to be happy that Hedo Turkoglu looks to be returning to top form since they'll need every thing they've got to win against Boston. If Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis are feeling it from behind the arc and Dwight Howard around the basket the Magic should win, but I think Boston's good game trumps theirs. Paul Pierce must stay out of foul trouble and have a good game. Orlando has the home court advantage, obviously, but Boston is skilled enough to fire on all cylinders on the road.

9) Picking the Cubs here is putting some faith in Ryan Wells and the rest of the Chicago bullpen to pitch well against the Brewers' batters. I expect them to continue returning to 'mortal' status after that 20 hit outing. I also like the Cubs' batting to remain strong.

10) Honestly, even I'm not sure how I can take the White Sox here with Jose Contreras on the mound for them. Matt Harrison pitched 6 scoreless innings in his last start against the White Sox, though that was against a lineup without Jermaine Dye, Thome, or A.J. Pierzynski. Contreras, on the other hand, has an 8.31 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP. In his one start against the Rangers, last Saturday at Rangers Ballpark, he gave up 7 earned runs on 7 hits in 3¹/₃ innings. The Rangers are batting .310 and slugging .500 in their last three games, but that's about average for them. They also have career batting averages of .311 and .492 slugging in 61 at bats against Contreras. I guess I'm just not quite ready to believe that Contreras is that bad of a pitcher and he will throw some scoreless innings in the near future. I imagine Harrison will need some run support tonight against the White Sox, who are batting pretty well lately, and if Contreras can just limit that for even 5 innings I like the White Sox bullpen to complete the victory.

11) The Los Angeles Lakers will be without the services of Derek Fisher for tonight's game after he was suspended by the NBA for charging Luis Scola and following through with a forearm shimmy. That will hurt Los Angeles as they were already thin at the point guard position, and with Jordan Farmar struggling so far in these playoffs. Fisher also provided some timely three point shooting. On the positive side Farmar and Shannon Brown should be able to keep up with Aaron Brooks more easiliy. The Lakers could really use a good game from Andrew Bynum, but he's shown a tendency to wilt when challenged on defense, which is what the Rockets will do. As for the Rockets, they will be fired up for this game to maintain home court and to show Kobe and the Lakers they will not be intimidated. If Pau Gasol can slow down Yao, and Lamar Odom and Kobe can get some support from their bench the Lakers will win this game, but you have to like the Rockets' chances here.

May 7th, 2009 Picks

2-0-0 day, and Lord was it a close one. I stuck with Barçelona even though they were hurting in the backfield. It looked bad very early on, as Barçelona's game plan was supposed to involve dominating the possession and giving few shots to Chelsea. In the 9^th minute Frank Lampard attempted a cross that caroomed off of a Barça defender straight towards Michael Essien. Essien caught the rebound mid-air and launched a rocket that dropped right, bouncing off the bottom of the top beam and into the goal. It was an incredible goal, and Chelsea took the 1-0 lead. Barçelona was doing well controlling the ball, but they could not quite make the final play, with Dani Alves booting his crosses across the end line all day and Chelsea keeping a man between Cech and the ball at all times.

This continued through the second half, and Chelsea were probably robbed of opportunities to go ahead by more with the officials refraining from calling penalties in the box. At the 65^th minute Eric Abidal was sent off for a mild touch and it was all but over for the Catalans. Impressively, Barçelona played some of their best football while a man down, especially on the defensive end. Gerrard Pique, standing in for Puyol and Marquez provided much of the spark. As the match entered injury time Barçelona made a final push. Essien attempted a clearance, but Lionel Messi got a foot on it and crossed to an open Andrés Iniesta who booted it over Cech from 20 yards out. Stamford Bridge erupted, and Barçelona held on to advance to the finals, with the aggregate score 1-1, and Barça holding a 1-0 advantage on away goals.

My second pick was the Los Angeles Lakers' winning margin. It looked like it would be an easy win in the first quarter as the Lakers scored 39 points and took a 14 point lead. Houston's bench would not let the Rockets fade, as Carl Landry and Kyle Lowry played intense basketball, forcing turnovers and grabbing offensive rebounds. It was a tie game at the half and Ron Artest had 5 field goals. The Lakers came out strong behind Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol in the third as they regained a 9 point lead. Artest had 8 field goals, but mid-way through the fourth quarter was ejected for arguing a loose ball foul called on him. The Lakers finished strong to win by 13, 111-98, and Artest finished with 8 field goals made. And so on to the picks.

1) Luke Donald vs. Ian Poulter – Donald cards a lower front 9 score
2) Atlanta Braves @ Florida Marlins – Atlanta
3) Padraig Harrington vs. Steve Stricker – Stricker cards a lower first round score
4) Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals – Kansas City
5) Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres – San Diego
6) Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds – Milwaukee
7) Josh Smith vs. Mo Williams – Williams pts.
8) Roberto Luongo vs. Nikolai Khabibulin – Luongo more saves
9) Vancouver Canucks @ Chicago Blackhawks - Vancouver
10) Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox – Chicago
11) Penn State vs. Southern California – Penn State
12) Aaron Hill vs. Bobby Abreu – Hill total bases
13) Detroit Red Wings @ Anaheim Ducks – 5 goals or fewer
14) Detroit Red Wings @ Anaheim Ducks - Detroit

Analysis
1) TPC Sawgrass is widely considered one of the more difficult courses on the PGA Tour. You can get some information on slope ratings at tpc.com and there’s a nice graphical tour of the course there. From 2003 to 2008 Luke Donald has played 18 rounds at Sawgrass, carding even par or better on the front 9 eight times. His median score is 1-over par, and his average score is 0.1-over par. He’s carded as low as 5 under, and as high as 4 over. Ian Poulter has played 18 rounds on the course as well, from 2004 to 2008. He’s carded even par or better on the front 9 eight times and also has a median score of 1-over par. His average is 0.6-over par, and his range of scores has been from 3 under to 4 over. You can check out Donald’s stats here, and Ian Poulter’s stats here. What jumped out at me was Donald having a lower putting average per green-in-regulation (GIR) by 0.076, a better scoring average by 0.82 strokes, and a higher birdie average by 0.33 per round. Keep in mind the scoring average is weighted by slope ratings and other factors to normalize for the differences in the courses played. I think each player is likely to be within -1 to +1, so it will be close, but with Donald having proven he can shoot 5-under par I have to give him the edge.

3) Traditionally, Padraig Harrington has done better than Steve Stricker at the Stadium Course at Sawgrass. His median score in 28 rounds is an even par 72 and he's shot 16 of his 28 rounds at even par or better. Stricker's median score is 74 in 16 rounds, only 5 of which have been even par or better. His best round was a 3-under 69, while his worst has been a 6-over 78. It's funny because Stricker has done better on that island par-3, birdying it 4 times and hitting bogey or worse 3 times in 16 rounds, while Harrington has only managed to score birdie three times, and hits bogey or worse 5 times. It's the rest of the the course giving Stricker more trouble. In the past three years neither golfer has been able to score better than 70. Right now Stricker has been the much better player on the tour, winning nearly $2 million dollars in 10 events, whilel Harrington is having to make do with just over $300,000 from 9 events. You can see Harrington's stats and Strickers' stats and come to your own conclusions. Either take the more successful golfer or take the golfer who's done better at Sawgrass, historically.

5) Dan Haren faces off against Chris Young in this game of low powered offenses. The Diamondbacks have scored 6 runs in their past three games while the Padres have scored 9 runs. Both teams are batting under .240 on the season and slugging under .390. Dan Haren would appear to be the far superior pitcher as he's started the season with a 1.47 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP. He's been a great strikeout pitcher with his split-finger fastball, striking out 9.8 batters per 9 innings and 6.7 batters for every one he walks. Chris Young has been solid only about half the time this season, with three terrific games shutting teams down, and two awful games, against the Phillies and the Rockies, where he gave up 6 or more runs before the end of the 4^th inning. After each of those shellings Young came back with good games, once recording 7 shutout innings and most recently limiting the Dodgers to 1 run in 7 innings at Dodger Stadium. The Padres' batting order has done well against Haren in their careers, posting a combined .320 batting average and .467 slugging average. Still, Haren hasn't always been this nasty so I would put 3 or 4 runs as the most he could possibly be expected to concede. With the run support the Diamondbacks have been providing that could be 3 or 4 runs too many.

6) The Milwaukee Brewers have been absolutely crushing the ball lately. They have scored 30 runs in their past three games by batting .336 and slugging .522 in 113 at bats. Yesterday they faced Cincinnati Reds ace Bronson Arroyo and put 9 runs on the board before he could even get his fourth out. They can be expected to plummet back to Earth, but probably not against Micah Owings. Owings has a 4.84 ERA and a poor 1.61 WHIP to start the season. In his first start of the year he faced Looper and the Brewers and did well to limit them to 6 hits and 4 earned runs in 5 innings. The Brewers ended up with 9 runs after shelling the Reds' bullpen. Braden Looper is starting for Milwaukee and he has done well. With a 3.10 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in his first 6 starts he has been a steady presence on the mound. His second start of the year was against the Reds, against whom he picked up his first win of the season. The Reds got 6 hits and 3 runs off of Looper in the 6 innings he pitched and his bullpen did well to maintain their lead. Milwaukee is sure to disappoint their fans in the near future, but I don't see it being tonight.

7)

Josh Smith Vs. Mo Williams - Points

Above are graphs showing Josh Smith's actual point production in away games with the expected distribution overlaid, and the same for Williams, but using data from his home games this season. One can see that Williams averages about 4 points more per game at home than Smith does on the road. One can also see the Josh Smith has scored 13 points 9 times on the road and that he's a wide-ranging scorer; he's had a single game scoring 10, 14, 19, 22, etc. points. Mo Williams' point totals are more bunched up; in 41 of his 45 games he has scored between 11 and 24 points. It's worth noting that Williams' chart leaves off games of 43 and 44 points, though those numbers were included in his average. Head-to-head Smith won the prop in Game 1, outscoring Williams 22 to 21. It was the first time this season Smith had scored more than 12 points, in Atlanta or in Cleveland. It was also the lowest number of points Williams had recorded against Atlanta all year. In Game 2 I expect Joe Johnson, Flip Murray, and Zaza Pachulia to get back on track and contribute more, leading to Smith scoring less than 20 points, which he has done in 25 of 35 road games. Mo Williams should be able to run circles around Mike Bibby and I see him scoring at least 20 points, a feat he's accomplished in 19 of 43 home games.

8) Any goalie worth starting in the NHL is going to make a save on over 90% of the shots taken at them. During the season both Roberto Luongo and Nikolai Khabibulin had a .920 SV%, though during the playoffs Luongo has made saves on 93.5% of the shots taken at him, while Khabibulin has only made saves on 89.7% of shots. With 30 shots on goal that's really not a huge difference, so for the most part this prop is really about which team will take more shots on goal. The Chicago Blackhawks trail the Vancouver Canucks 2-1 in this best of 7 series and they will be heading back to Vancouver after tonight, so the Blackhawks really need to win this game. One might think that would lead them to take more shots, but that has not always been the case. In a do-or-die Game 7 the Blackhawks took only 18 shots on goal against Calgary in winning 4-1, and Khabibulin made 43 saves. Looking at the chart to the side one sees the Blackhawks average about 5 more shots on goal. One can also see that there is significant overlap between 25 to 40 shots taken between the two teams, but in an exceptional game the Blackhawks take a large number of shots, while Vancouver takes a small number of shots. With Luongo being better in the playoffs, and Chicago taking many more shots on goal in this series, and during the season, Luongo is the better pick.

11) Here's a brief preview of the NCAA Men's Volleyball Final Four, being held in Provo, Utah. Penn State are the defending champs, but USC play in the best conference in the nation and are more used to playing at high altitudes (Provo is at 4551 feet above sea level).

12) Aaron Hill and Bobby Abreu are two sluggers for the Toronto Blue Jays and the Los Angeles Angels, respectively. One his having a fantastic season, batting .366 with 7 home runs while the other is just good, batting .343 with 0 home runs. In terms of total bases Aaron Hill is dominating, averaging 2.5 per game compared to Abreu who is averaging 1.6 per game. Jered Weaver is pitching for the Angels, and he has given up two doubles and a single in 5 at bats to Aaron Hill. Robert Ray is pitching for the Blue Jays, his second start. While he's never faced Abreu he did well in his first start. In the minor leagues he was a good strikeout pitcher with a WHIP of 1.37 through 351¹/₃ innings. The chart to the right shows the proportion of games in 2008 and 2009 each player had a certain number of total bases. It's apparent that Abreu is more likely to go hit-less while Hill is much more likely to hit a double or two singles. I don't see a home run being given up to either of these batters and without that the odds are squarely on Aaron Hill for this one. Of course, betting on Hill is also a bet on a minor league pitcher having two solid starts in a row in the Majors.

May 6th, 2009 Picks

2-2-0 today, ...WLWL... and so on lately. My first pick was Mischa Zverev, who was defeated by Andreas Beck in straight sets, 3-6 4-6. 'Nuff said. My second pick was the San Francisco Giants. Things started off right when Renteria and Aurilia singled, bringing Bengie Molina up to bat. Molina nailed the first pitch over the plate to put the Giants up 3-0. Lincecum had a solid game, allowing 2 runs off of 4 hits, while striking out 7 batters in 7 innings. Still, the Giants found themselves up only 3-2 entering the 8th inning. Sean Marshall walked Renteria and gave up a single to Aurilia prompting the Cubs to bring in Samardzija for a little relief pitching. He provided little as he hit Molina with a pitch and then proceeded to give up a 2 RBI double and an RBI single. Cotts was brought in with runners on first and second and he did well to induce an inning-ending double play. Valdez and Affeldt secured the remaining 6 outs on 8 batters in the 8th and 9th to secure a 6-2 win for the Giants, Lincecum's third of the season.

My third pick was the Minnesota Twins. Rick Porcello showed why he's one of Detroit's top prospects as he pitched 7 shutout innings, allowing only 4 hits by the Twins. Nick Blackburn had a downright atrocious outing as he made it through only 3-1/3 innings, giving up 9 runs, 6 of them earned. The Tigers scored all 9 of their runs in the first four innings and the Twins could never get that one last hit to drive their men home. Detroit won easily, 9-0.

My last pick was Denver's winning margin. Denver led by 8 after the first quarter, but Dallas came back to make it a 3 point game at the half. Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony were struggling mightily, and it was mostly Kenyon Martin, J.R. Smith, and Chris Andersen who kept them from falling behind. The third quarter was back-and-forth but the Nuggets maintained their 3 point margin. In the 4th Billups and Anthony got back on track in a serious way. Anthony scored 7 points in the first three minutes and the Nuggets raced out to a 12 point lead. 'Melo kept on going from there, scoring 8 more points in the quarter. Denver was able to nurse a 15 to 17 point lead and the Nuggets won by 12, 117-105. Jason Kidd finished the game with 7 assists, his season long average in road games. So on to the picks!

1) Barçelona @ Chelsea – Barçelona advance
2) Alex Ovechkin vs. Sidney Crosby – Ovechkin pts.
3) Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles – Baltimore
4) Philadelphia Phillies vs. Johan Santana – Philadelphia total hits
5) Boston Bruins @ Carolina Hurricanes – Boston
6) Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics – Boston
7) Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals – Pittsburgh
8) Los Angeles Galaxy @ Real Salt Lake – Real Salt Lake win
9) Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics – Texas
10) Ron Artest vs. Los Angeles Lakers win margin – Los Angeles win margin

Analysis

1) I'll start off with a nice analysis by Phil Thompson at SkySports. He's calling a 3-2 win by Barçelona. Here's a slightly anglocentric preview from the BBC. They point out that the home side has advanced in 66.8% of all Champions League ties after a 0-0 draw away. Goal.com's preview points out Chelsea's emphasis on not conceding an away goal. It will be difficult for Barçelona to score on a defensively focused Blues side, but it shall also be difficult for Chelsea to score on the possession dominating Blaugrana. Their prediction: Barçelona advance with a 1-1 score. The Telegraph give a nice preview in which they analyze key one-on-one matchups on the pitch. They also predict each team bring out a 4-3-3 formation for this leg of the tie.

As for my thoughts on the match, it’s tough to gauge how this leg will go since Chelsea didn’t really show their offense in the 1^st leg and Barçelona’s defense was not tested too greatly. The near goal by Drogba off a Barçelona error is an example of how Chelsea’s size and skill can allow them to score. I think Barçelona have the better keeper in Valdes, but Chelsea will test their possession style of play. Chelsea will also be dangerous on corners with such height, should they get any. I might switch to Chelsea in fact, because what I saw from Barçelona is what I saw from Arsenal in their 1^st leg; an unwillingness to take risky and difficult shots, instead passing the ball around to set up gimmie shots on goal. On the other hand, if Chelsea move even one man out past 18 yards Barçelona should be able to find that 'gimmie'. Chelsea are 15-9-2 at Stamford Bridge, with two of those draws being scoreless. With any draw where a goal is scored resulting in Barçelona advancing the Blues are essentially 15-9 at home. Barçelona are 18-6-3 away from the Nou Camp, with one of their draws being 0-0, making them 23-3 away for purposes of this matchup. Barçelona are the odds on favorites to come out on top by a goal or more, and with non-clean sheet draws sending them through to Rome Barçelona are heavy favorites. I computed odds along the lines of Barçelona at -130 to +160 for Chelsea. Skybet has Barçelona at -200 to advance, and Chelsea at +110.

3) Baltimore are starting Mark Hendrickson on the mound who has had an awful start to his season, recording a 5.79 ERA and a 2.01 WHIP. His first game of the season he did well, limiting Tampa Bay to 1 run and 6 hits in 5¹/₃ innings. Baltimore ended up winning that game 5-4. Other than that a typical game from Hendrickson has involved 5 innings pitched and a half dozen runs or more being given up. He's not injured, and he was not this poor last season so I would expect him to settle down at home and have a fairly good outing, giving up 3 to 4 runs at most. Minnesota has not been heavy with the bats in their last three games, batting .252 and slugging .330. That last number has not been helped by the fact that the Twins have not found the yard in their past three games. Kevin Slowey is starting for Minnesota, and his numbers suggest he's been pretty good for the year. He has a 1.47 WHIP and a 5.17 ERA to go along with a 4-0 record. His strikeout to walk ratio is 11.5 as he's only walked two batters all year. I just don't see that continuing for Slowey, and do not see a middle-of-the pack pitcher on a team like the Twins going 5-0 to start the season.

4) Johan Santana is on one of the hottest stretches in his career. He's averaging 8.8 strikeouts per game over his past 5 starts. Last season the most he'd averaged over a 5 game period was 7.6 in his final 5 starts. Part of the reason for this is it's not altogether uncommon for him to record 5 or fewer strikeouts in a 7 inning start. He's had 5 or fewer strikeouts 15 times in his last 39 starts. He's also had 8 or more strikeouts 11 times in that period. You can see how many games with a particular number of strikeouts Santana has had by looking at the graph below. You can also see that the Phillies average a couple more hits per game, and that they average one fewer hit per game against Santana than they do against all pitchers combined. Of course, they only batted against Johan 5 times last season. In those 5 games the Phillies had more hits three times, 7-6, 13-4, and 8-6; they pushed once, 6-6; and they lost once, 10-5. I think Santana is due to have a mundane start, and the Phillies will do well to avoid striking out when they fall behind on the count, instead fouling out, popping or grounding out, or getting a hit.
6) Boston lost Game 1 to Orlando after being down by 28 points early in the 3^rd quarter and coming back to within 4 points late in the 4^th. All the reasons I gave for why Boston should have won Game 1 apply to this game. I fully expect Rajon Rondo to be more aggressive on Rafer Alston, and for Paul Pierce to avoid foul trouble in this game.

8) First off, Real Salt Lake have been absolutely dominant at Rio Tinto Stadium so far this year. They defeated last season's MLS champions, Columbus, 4-1 and followed that up with a solid 2-1 win over Eastern Conference leaders DC United. Their third road game was a 6-0 thrashing of New England where the Revolution were completely outclassed. Here is a very fine preview from goal.com. Real are dealing with injuries to their keeper, Nick Rimando, but have a solid prospect in Seitz to replace him. They will also be missing Javier Morales at mid-field, and Jamison Olave on defense through suspension. For the Galaxy, their best strategy will be to keep men back, play for the draw, and hope that Landon Donovan can make something happen on their counters. With Robbie Findlay and Movsisyan headlining one of the most powerful home attacks in Major League Soccer I think Real will be too strong for the Galaxy to overcome.

10) After the Rockets won in L.A. by 8 points in Game 1, with Artest making 8 field goals, I was inclined to think Houston could keep Game 2 close with Artest making at least 6. Then I looked at their numbers over the regular season and in these playoffs. Artest is averaging 6.4 field goals per game on the road, and in four games against the Lakers this season he has averaged 5.8 field goals. This graph shows the expected distribution of field goals made (FGM) for Artest on the road and the Lakers' winning margins at home, based on this season's averages. The bar graphs show the actual counts of games with a certain number of FGMs or wins by a certain amount. One thing to keep in mind is that there are 5 Lakers' home wins left off the high end of the graph, including a 27 point win over Houston at the beginning of the season. I can see Yao Ming playing fewer minutes in this game, especially if his knee is swelling, and consequently Artest making more baskets. Of course, if Yao is limited then Artest can go ahead and score, but the Rockets' chances will still be worse. I think the Lakers can turn this one around and win by 10, which would be enough to outpace Artest in 87% of his road games.