click it
0-2-1 today which is pretty terrible in my opinion when I had winners picked in my blog in 3 of the 4 time windows for the day. My first pick was Kevin Sutherland to card a lower front 9 score. Sutherland started his round off with a bogey to go behind Weir by a stroke but he promptly gained it back with a birdie on the second hole. The two remained all square until Sutherland lost another stroke with a bogey on the fifth hole. Weir birdied the par 3 sixth hole to take a two stroke lead with three holes remaining. Weir gave back a stroke on the next hole, a par 5, with a bogey. Sutherland was down a stroke on the last hole but managed to save a push with a birdie. Rory McIlroy was the only other golfer of the 50 competing to score a birdie on #9.
My next pick was Nick Watney to card a lower front 9. Watney and Ames each hit par for the course except for a birdie on #2 to put things all square through four holes. Ames hit a bogey on the par 4 fifth hole to go down a stroke. Watney kept that one stroke lead for one more hole until he put in one the worst finishes at Augusta on the front 9. Watney gave back his lead with a bogey on the seventh hole, went down a stroke with a bogey on the next hole and failed to save a push when Ames bogeyed the ninth hole when he bogeyed it himself. Watney was the only player to card three consecutive holes over par in the final round and only the third to do so after the cut.
My third and final pick was the Philadelphia Flyers. Henrik Lundqvist was a late decision to start with most sources stating Tellqvist would start as goalie. The Flyers still struck quickly scoring a goal in their first three shots. A puck over the glass penalty gave the Rangers a power play which they converted at the end. The Flyers converted their first power play but made one of the more dreaded mistakes when they not only failed to convert their next power play and gave up a short handed goal. The Flyers took an early lead in the second period but were unable to hold on as the Rangers scored two of their own in the first half of the final period. The Flyers ended up losing 4-3.
Other notable events: Johan Santana losing his first game started since last June despite recording a 0.00 ERA, and Kenny Perry bogeying the final two holes at the Masters to set up a playoff which Angel Cabrera won. And now on to the picks.
1) Ipswich Town @ Bristol City – Ipswich Town win or draw
2) Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers – Chicago
3) Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals – Philadelphia
4) New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays – New York
5) San Diego Padres @ New York Mets – New York
6) Orlando Magic @ Milwaukee Bucks – Milwaukee
7) St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks – St. Louis
Analysis
1) Wow, I just completely forgot to write something about this last night but with English Championship League soccer who really cares right? Ipswich and Bristol are 3 points removed in the tables. Ipswich have more away wins (8) than Bristol have home wins (7). Bristol are missing three key starting defenders. I generally say do not pick against the win/draw option unless the team with the win option is far far ahead in the standings.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) The Detroit Tigers are -120 favorites but the White Sox are only +110 underdogs. Road dogs have been doing fairly well so far in this young season, especially when they are heavy favorites to cover a 1.5 run spread. In this case Chicago is favored to cover at -180 to +160 for Detroit. Zach Miner had a 9.00 ERA last April and walked nearly as many batters as he struck out. He gives up hits and home runs at slightly higher rates to the White Sox batters than Gavin Floyd does to the Tigers’ batters. Gavin Floyd had a 3.16 ERA last April and a 3.68 ERA against Detroit. He has struck out three times as many of Detroit’s batters as he has walked.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
5) The Mets are -200 favorites in many casinos this morning and are even odds to cover the spread of 1.5 runs. Silva is new to the league this year and in his first game had only one strikeout compared to four walks, but gave up more than a few grounders leading to two double plays. Pelfrey had a strong finish to the season in 2008 but April has been one of his weaker months. His ERA against the Padres in 122/3 innings is 2.13 but the Padres have gotten 11 hits, including two home runs, in 31 at bats against Pelfrey.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) Orlando is without Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu for tonight’s game and Stan Van Gundy has been reported as saying he’ll be looking to limit Dwight Howard’s minutes with the season coming to an end and no chance for Orlando to move up or down in the seeding. Look for Marcin Gortat to pick up those minutes and for a slew of other players to get their first meaningful minutes of the season. Vegas casinos are not putting lines out on the NBA at this point in the season but the online oddsmakers have Milwaukee winning by anywhere from 3.5 to 5.5 points.
UPDATE: Vegas has opened books for this game with the spread at 3.5 points favoring Milwaukee
Confidence: W1 streak or less
And So It Goes....
Monday, April 13, 2009
Sunday, April 12, 2009
April 12th, 2009 Picks
A very disappointing 1-2-1 day today. It started out with my five game streak screeching to a halt when Hull City came out flat and sloppy in their match away at Middlesbrough. ‘Boro struck first, and early, as Afonso Alves took a shot from just outside the box which was saved by Matt Duke. The shot rebounded and Tuncay Sanli was in position to rocket the ball past Duke. Six minutes later Hull City were awarded a corner kick and Manucho made the best of it by heading a shot into the goal to tie things up 1-1. Twenty minutes later Middlesbrough had a corner kick and were able to set up Matthew Bates for a strike from two yards out. Middlesbrough took a 2-1 lead into the half. Hull City tried to apply pressure in the second half but were mostly unable to earn any real scoring opportunities. Middlesbrough was playing to stay out of relegation and Hull City looked like a team who felt they had nothing to play for. The two played scoreless until Marlon King found the net from 12 yards out giving ’Boro the badly needed three points with a 3-1 victory.
My next pick was Phil Mickelson to card a lower front 9 score. Ogilvy and Mickelson were all square through six holes but Ogilvy hit consecutive bogeys on the 6th and 7th holes. A birdie from Mickelson on the 8th hole give him a nearly insurmountable three stroke lead with only the 9th hole remaining. Mickelson hit par and Ogilvy ended up losing by three strokes.
My third pick was the Florida Marlins. The Marlins were having trouble hitting against Hernandez’s mid-70 mph knuckle balls. When they did advance batters to third they stranded those batters. In one inning Uggla was making a run to home plate but Hernandez made a miracle catch, throw to first, and the throw to home was just in time to tag Uggla out for the double play to end the inning. The Mets were having an easier time getting on base against Nolasco and picked up a run in the 3rd inning and three more in the 5th. Nolasco was relieved for the 6th inning but Miller gave up another run. The Mets tried to come back, scoring two runs in the 7th inning, but Penn gave up three more to the Mets in the 8th. The Marlins were down 8-2 in the bottom of the 9th and scored two runs in the 9th but by then they were hitting through the bottom of their order and Rodriguez completed the save for the Mets. Final score, Mets 8, Florida 4.
My final pick was Chivas USA to win. There was no scoring in the first half but plenty of yellow cards being issued. Just before the end of the half Chivas’ Paulo Nagamuro was given his second yellow card and sent off meaning Chivas USA would play a man down for the 2nd half. The Galaxy applied pressure and made substitutions for offense but Chivas USA were able to deflect their attacks. Donovan had a nifty pass leading to a goal waved off for offsides at one point and it seemed only a matter of time before L.A. scored. Alan Gordon for L.A. was awarded two yellow cards in the space of three minutes and sent off to even things up. 8 minutes later Eskandario beat the last defender and was about to break away towards the goal before Gregg Berhalter of L.A. committed a flagrant foul by grabbing the neck of Eskandario’s jersey and dragging him down to the ground. Since it was outside the penalty box there was no penalty kick awarded. Berhalter was sent off and L.A. survived a still timid Chivas attack for 11 minutes and barely staved off defeat in injury time after Chivas finally got it in their heads they had a tremendous advantage, were in no danger of being scored upon, and should try to score themselves. I was getting into soccer but I’m not interested in supporting a sport where flagrant fouls can reward the team who commits them. In the end it was a 0-0 draw and I received a push. So on to the picks.
1) Everton @ Aston Villa – Aston Villa win
2) Kevin Sutherland vs. Mike Weir – Sutherland cards a lower front 9 score
3) Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Hornets – New Orleans
4) New York Mets @ Florida Marlins – Florida
5) Nick Watney vs. Stephen Ames – Watney cards a lower front 9 score
6) Tiger Woods vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower 4th round score
7) Detroit Red Wings @ Chicago Blackhawks – Detroit
8) Angel Cabrera vs. Kenny Perry – Cabrera cards a lower front 9 score
9) Ray Allen vs. Mo Williams – Williams points
10) San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres – San Diego
11) New York Rangers @ Philadelphia Phillies – Philadelphia
12) Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors – Philadelphia
13) A. Soriano and D. Lee vs. R. Braun and P. Fielder – Soriano and Lee more total bases
Analysis
1) Aston Villa and Everton have each had some tough results lately with Everton losing away at Portsmouth and Villa having lost on a late injury time goal by Macheda in his Manchester United debut. I think Aston Villa will be riled up by that and want to prove they really are in the same class as the Big Four by dominating Everton. Tim Howard is playing with a sore hamstring so he may aggravate it during the match and if not he may have trouble jumping off of that leg to make saves, making one side of the goal more vulnerable to attack. The home and road records would definitely support taking the ‘and draw’ option here but the little things that imply which side will be playing a sharper, cleaner game favor Aston Villa
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Kevin Sutherland has not played in the Masters since 2003 where he finished tied for 33rd with a 7 over 72-hole score. In that round he improved his front 9 score by four strokes from the 3rd to the 4th round so he can handle the increased difficulty. Mike Weir has played in every Masters from 2001 forward. Last year he hit 2 over par on the front nine in the final round. He has tended to worsen his performance on the front 9 in the final round. In 33 rounds of golf at Augusta since 2001 Weir has carded many rounds under par, but he has only hit better than 2 under once. I can see Sutherland hitting anywhere from 3 under to 4 over and Weir hitting anywhere from 2 under to 4 over. I think that is generous for Weir considering he has hit even par, 3 over, and 4 over so far this year at Augusta. With those ranges of scores and assuming each score is equally probable Sutherland is the favorite at 50% with Weir having a 37.5% chance of winning and a push at 12.5%.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Dallas defeated New Orleans in Dallas two days ago making this a home-and-away series. Both teams are fighting for playoff seeding to increase their odds of advancing through the first round. Dallas is playing terrific since Josh Howard came back from injury while New Orleans has been playing poorly lately. It’s very difficult to win back-to-back games against an opponent and especially when the second game is on their home court. New Orleans is favored by 3 points and I think Dallas is just not quite superior enough to take both games.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
5) Stephen Ames has golfed in every Masters from 2005-present. He has never scored better than 2 over par in the 4th round on the front 9 even after hitting under par in the 3rd round. He has never improved his score from the 3rd round either. This is only Watney’s second Masters tournament but in that time he has carded even par or better on the front 9 in 7 of 9 rounds. His worst front 9 score has been 2 over par. I very much like the chances of Watney, whose worst performance on the front 9 is equal to or better than the best performance Ames has had in the 4th round, to win in this prop. Generously considering Ames has a good chance of hitting one under par and conservatively considering Watney has a good chance of hitting five over par I calculated Watney winning at 55.6%, Ames winning at 33.3% and a push at 11.1%.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) Angel Cabrera and Kenny Perry are tied at 11 under par going into the final round at Augusta so whoever wins this prop may very well be wearing the green jacket at the end. This is Perry’s first Masters since 2005 and the first time he has carded two rounds under 70. His best fourth round score was a 69 back in 1995. This is Cabrera’s 10th consecutive Masters and his first time carding three rounds under 70. His previous best fourth round score was a 68 in 2006. I give Perry the advantage here because he has been steadier with all three rounds being 68 or 69. In 31 rounds of play at Augusta since 2001 his average score is 72 and his median score is 72.5. In the 15 rounds Perry has played in that time his average and median scores are 74.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Mo Williams and the Cavaliers are at home against the Celtics today. Williams has outscored Ray Allen in all three previous meetings between the two teams. Ray Allen’s season high is 36 points and he has scored 30 or more three times this season. Mo Williams’ season high is 44 and he has scored 30 or more points four times.
12) The odds in Vegas for this game are currently even. Toronto is eliminated from the playoffs a long time ago but Philadelphia can’t afford to lose games down the stretch if they want to avoid Cleveland and Boston in the first round of the playoffs. Philadelphia is on a 4 game slide including losing their last 4 on the road but they have won in Toronto before this season, back in November, and have beaten the Lakers and Portland on the road in the past month.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
My next pick was Phil Mickelson to card a lower front 9 score. Ogilvy and Mickelson were all square through six holes but Ogilvy hit consecutive bogeys on the 6th and 7th holes. A birdie from Mickelson on the 8th hole give him a nearly insurmountable three stroke lead with only the 9th hole remaining. Mickelson hit par and Ogilvy ended up losing by three strokes.
My third pick was the Florida Marlins. The Marlins were having trouble hitting against Hernandez’s mid-70 mph knuckle balls. When they did advance batters to third they stranded those batters. In one inning Uggla was making a run to home plate but Hernandez made a miracle catch, throw to first, and the throw to home was just in time to tag Uggla out for the double play to end the inning. The Mets were having an easier time getting on base against Nolasco and picked up a run in the 3rd inning and three more in the 5th. Nolasco was relieved for the 6th inning but Miller gave up another run. The Mets tried to come back, scoring two runs in the 7th inning, but Penn gave up three more to the Mets in the 8th. The Marlins were down 8-2 in the bottom of the 9th and scored two runs in the 9th but by then they were hitting through the bottom of their order and Rodriguez completed the save for the Mets. Final score, Mets 8, Florida 4.
My final pick was Chivas USA to win. There was no scoring in the first half but plenty of yellow cards being issued. Just before the end of the half Chivas’ Paulo Nagamuro was given his second yellow card and sent off meaning Chivas USA would play a man down for the 2nd half. The Galaxy applied pressure and made substitutions for offense but Chivas USA were able to deflect their attacks. Donovan had a nifty pass leading to a goal waved off for offsides at one point and it seemed only a matter of time before L.A. scored. Alan Gordon for L.A. was awarded two yellow cards in the space of three minutes and sent off to even things up. 8 minutes later Eskandario beat the last defender and was about to break away towards the goal before Gregg Berhalter of L.A. committed a flagrant foul by grabbing the neck of Eskandario’s jersey and dragging him down to the ground. Since it was outside the penalty box there was no penalty kick awarded. Berhalter was sent off and L.A. survived a still timid Chivas attack for 11 minutes and barely staved off defeat in injury time after Chivas finally got it in their heads they had a tremendous advantage, were in no danger of being scored upon, and should try to score themselves. I was getting into soccer but I’m not interested in supporting a sport where flagrant fouls can reward the team who commits them. In the end it was a 0-0 draw and I received a push. So on to the picks.
1) Everton @ Aston Villa – Aston Villa win
2) Kevin Sutherland vs. Mike Weir – Sutherland cards a lower front 9 score
3) Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Hornets – New Orleans
4) New York Mets @ Florida Marlins – Florida
5) Nick Watney vs. Stephen Ames – Watney cards a lower front 9 score
6) Tiger Woods vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower 4th round score
7) Detroit Red Wings @ Chicago Blackhawks – Detroit
8) Angel Cabrera vs. Kenny Perry – Cabrera cards a lower front 9 score
9) Ray Allen vs. Mo Williams – Williams points
10) San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres – San Diego
11) New York Rangers @ Philadelphia Phillies – Philadelphia
12) Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors – Philadelphia
13) A. Soriano and D. Lee vs. R. Braun and P. Fielder – Soriano and Lee more total bases
Analysis
1) Aston Villa and Everton have each had some tough results lately with Everton losing away at Portsmouth and Villa having lost on a late injury time goal by Macheda in his Manchester United debut. I think Aston Villa will be riled up by that and want to prove they really are in the same class as the Big Four by dominating Everton. Tim Howard is playing with a sore hamstring so he may aggravate it during the match and if not he may have trouble jumping off of that leg to make saves, making one side of the goal more vulnerable to attack. The home and road records would definitely support taking the ‘and draw’ option here but the little things that imply which side will be playing a sharper, cleaner game favor Aston Villa
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Kevin Sutherland has not played in the Masters since 2003 where he finished tied for 33rd with a 7 over 72-hole score. In that round he improved his front 9 score by four strokes from the 3rd to the 4th round so he can handle the increased difficulty. Mike Weir has played in every Masters from 2001 forward. Last year he hit 2 over par on the front nine in the final round. He has tended to worsen his performance on the front 9 in the final round. In 33 rounds of golf at Augusta since 2001 Weir has carded many rounds under par, but he has only hit better than 2 under once. I can see Sutherland hitting anywhere from 3 under to 4 over and Weir hitting anywhere from 2 under to 4 over. I think that is generous for Weir considering he has hit even par, 3 over, and 4 over so far this year at Augusta. With those ranges of scores and assuming each score is equally probable Sutherland is the favorite at 50% with Weir having a 37.5% chance of winning and a push at 12.5%.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Dallas defeated New Orleans in Dallas two days ago making this a home-and-away series. Both teams are fighting for playoff seeding to increase their odds of advancing through the first round. Dallas is playing terrific since Josh Howard came back from injury while New Orleans has been playing poorly lately. It’s very difficult to win back-to-back games against an opponent and especially when the second game is on their home court. New Orleans is favored by 3 points and I think Dallas is just not quite superior enough to take both games.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
5) Stephen Ames has golfed in every Masters from 2005-present. He has never scored better than 2 over par in the 4th round on the front 9 even after hitting under par in the 3rd round. He has never improved his score from the 3rd round either. This is only Watney’s second Masters tournament but in that time he has carded even par or better on the front 9 in 7 of 9 rounds. His worst front 9 score has been 2 over par. I very much like the chances of Watney, whose worst performance on the front 9 is equal to or better than the best performance Ames has had in the 4th round, to win in this prop. Generously considering Ames has a good chance of hitting one under par and conservatively considering Watney has a good chance of hitting five over par I calculated Watney winning at 55.6%, Ames winning at 33.3% and a push at 11.1%.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) Angel Cabrera and Kenny Perry are tied at 11 under par going into the final round at Augusta so whoever wins this prop may very well be wearing the green jacket at the end. This is Perry’s first Masters since 2005 and the first time he has carded two rounds under 70. His best fourth round score was a 69 back in 1995. This is Cabrera’s 10th consecutive Masters and his first time carding three rounds under 70. His previous best fourth round score was a 68 in 2006. I give Perry the advantage here because he has been steadier with all three rounds being 68 or 69. In 31 rounds of play at Augusta since 2001 his average score is 72 and his median score is 72.5. In the 15 rounds Perry has played in that time his average and median scores are 74.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
9) Mo Williams and the Cavaliers are at home against the Celtics today. Williams has outscored Ray Allen in all three previous meetings between the two teams. Ray Allen’s season high is 36 points and he has scored 30 or more three times this season. Mo Williams’ season high is 44 and he has scored 30 or more points four times.
12) The odds in Vegas for this game are currently even. Toronto is eliminated from the playoffs a long time ago but Philadelphia can’t afford to lose games down the stretch if they want to avoid Cleveland and Boston in the first round of the playoffs. Philadelphia is on a 4 game slide including losing their last 4 on the road but they have won in Toronto before this season, back in November, and have beaten the Lakers and Portland on the road in the past month.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
Saturday, April 11, 2009
April 11th, 2009 Picks
Sweet, 2-0-0 today bringing my streak to 5. My first pick was Ian Poulter to score lower than Tom Watson and Steve Wilson. Steve Wilson took the early one stroke lead with a birdie on the 2nd hole. Wilson gave the lead back by taking a bogey on the par-3 4th hole. Watson and Wilson were the next to deviate from par with bogeys on the 5th hole giving Ian Poulter a one stroke lead. On the 7th hole Poulter went to one over par as he and Watson both took a bogey. Poulter and Wilson were tied going into the 9th hole with Watson down a stroke. Wilson hit a bogey while Poulter hit a birdie and Poulter took the prop by two strokes while finishing at even par for the front 9.
My next pick was the St. Louis Blues at home. They took a 2-0 lead after the first period, converting 2 of 3 power plays and and limiting Columbus to 5 shots on goal. Columbus scored four minutes in to the second period but St. Louis was able to get a goal back four minutes later. The third period went scoreless and the Blues picked up a 3-1 victory to clinch a playoff spot. Columbus took 17 shots on goal for the entire game and had zero power play opportunities. St. Louis spent two minutes in the box and converted a third of their power plays. So on to the picks.
1) Hull City @ Middlesbrough – Hull City win or draw
2) Ryuji Imada vs. Stuart Appleby – Imada cards a lower front 9 score
3) Carolina Hurricanes @ New Jersey Devils – Carolina
4) Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Indians – Toronto
5) How many holes under par will Tiger Woods card: 5 or more or 4 or less – 4 or less
6) Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds – Cincinnati
7) Geoff Ogilvy vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower front 9 score
8) Chad Campbell vs. Kenny Perry – Campbell cards a lower third round score
9) Boston Bruins @ Buffalo Sabres – Buffalo
10) Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards – Busch places lower
11) Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
12) New York Mets @ Florida Marlins – Florida
13) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Montreal Canadiens – Montreal
14) Ottawa Senators @ Toronto Maple Leafs – Toronto
15) Boston University vs. Miami(OH) – 6 goals or more
16) Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves – Minnesota
17) San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres – San Diego
18) Chivas USA @ Los Angeles Galaxy – Chivas USA
Analysis
1) Aside from defeating a distracted and resting Liverpool in February Middlesbrough have not won a match at home since defeating Manchester City in October of 2008 and Manchester City are easily one of the worst road teams in the English Premier. Don’t put too much stock in that win at home versus Liverpool, Hull City played Chelsea to a 0-0 draw at Anfield around the same time. A lot of top 5 English Premier teams underperformed from the middle of February to the beginning of March because of the attention paid to European competition. Every year teams are trying to avoid relegation and lose 2 points or all 3 at home in must win matches against ‘relatively weak sides’. And every year three clubs are relegated. Here is what tells me Hull City is the best bet here. Hull City hasn’t lost a game on the road this season to anyone lower than 10th in the tables. They have collected more points on the road than they have at home, 20 to 14. Hull City are 7th place in the Premier League in terms of points earned on the road. Middlesbrough have lost and drawn to far worse road sides, e.g. Portsmouth D 1-1, West Brom L 0-1, Newcastle United D 0-0, Sunderland D 1-1, Bolton Wanderers L 1-3. Check these teams’ road records, they are not performing as well on the road as Hull City.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Ryuji Imada finished 13th on the money list last year and Stuart Appleby finished 22nd. Imada did play in two more events but won an average of $12,000 more per event. He had two event wins and two other top 5 finishes compared to Appleby finishing in the top 5 twice. In this year’s Masters Imada carded a lower front 9 score by one stroke in the first round and by two strokes in the second round. In the past 8 years Appleby has never improved his front 9 score from the 2nd round to the 3rd round at Augusta. I think Appleby will score anywhere from 2 under to 2 over which I think is generous since 2 under would be an improvement. I also think Imada will score from 3 under to 2 over which would be a four stroke slide. With each score in that range being equally probable Imada has a 50% chance of winning, Appleby has a 33% chance of winning and there is a 17% chance they score the same. I think Imada is a better golfer at this point in their careers and that will overcome Appleby’s experience at Augusta.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
3) Carolina is 9-1-0 in their last 10 games and 3-2-0 in their last 5 on the road. New Jersey is 3-6-1 in their last 10 games and 2-1-1 in their last 5 at home. During that time Martin Brodeur has started each game. He has a 3.3 GAA and has made saves on 88.9% of shots on goal in those 10 games. Cam Ward will not be starting tonight for Carolina, with Mike Leighton taking the net in his place. Leighton has 18 starts on the season and a 2.91 GAA with saves on 90% of the shots taken at him. New Jersey are favored at -120 in Vegas and Carolina is at even odds.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
8) Kenny Perry hasn’t played in the Masters since 2005. This is his 9th Masters appearance. He’s been cut 5 times and his best finish was tied for 12th with 5 under in 1995. It’s the only time he’s finished under par. This is Chad Campbell’s 6th Masters appearance and first since 2007. He has been cut 3 times and his best finish was tied for 3rd in 2006 at 4 under par. Both of these golfers will probably tank out of the top 10 after today but Campbell has finished higher than Perry more often and more recently.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
11) The Boston Red Sox are -130 favorites with the Los Angeles Angels being +110 underdogs. Home underdogs are 12-7 in Major League Baseball so far this season. Contrary to the listing on the streak board Joe Saunders will be starting for Los Angeles. Saunders is 7-0 in April from ‘06 to ’08 with a 2.04 ERA in over 61 innings pitched. He’s 4-0 against the Red Sox in that time with an ERA of 2.89 in just over 37 innings pitched. He’s 15-9 at Angel Stadium with a 4.77 ERA in 203 innings. Penny is also pretty good in April but the last time he pitched against the Angels he got rocked for 8 runs in 5 innings, but that was in 2007.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
12) Florida has terrific odds at home here being -150 favorites and New York being +130 underdogs. Florida is starting Nolasco on the mound, considered to be one of their best starting pitchers. He has struggled a bit against the Mets in the past, however, with a 6.28 ERA over the past 3 years in 47 innings pitched. He has pitched more innings against New York than any other team and his ERA is higher versus the Mets than any other team. New York is starting Livan Hernandez who has not fared any better against Florida. He has allowed 23 runs in nearly 29 innings pitched. This is Florida’s home opener and being the favorites with Nolasco on the mound should give them the advantage.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
15) The odds on the over/under here are pretty much dead even. I watched the game with Vermont and Boston University and Boston has an incredible team. They were getting takeaways at an incredible rate which will create scoring opportunities. Madore started as goalie for Vermont and he is going to be an NHL starter in a few years. In one of the Vermont defeats Boston U had 41 of their 44 shots saved by Madore. Against Miami(OH) Boston should be able to score more easily and for every goal Miami(OH) may score Boston will up the intensity to score another.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
16) Phoenix is favored by 3 points in this game. This could easily be another game where Phoenix puts 13 different players on the court by half time. Minnesota is a team like Memphis who are just trying to get wins at the end of the season to get a feel for what it feels like and for their home fans.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
17) Well I must admit I’m not too familiar with these teams yet or the pitchers on the mound. The lines have moved in favor of the Padres since they opened last night, however. Currently San Diego are favored at -160 and San Francisco are +150 underdogs. In terms of percent chance winning with the bookmakers’ profit margins being accounted for that is the Padres at 60.6% and the Giants at 39.4%. Here a few pitching stats. Peavy has a 2.71 ERA in PETCO park in the past 341 innings he has pitched there. Last year Peavy was 0-2 against the Giants with a 3.60 ERA in 15 innings and 10 strikeouts and 2 walks. Both losses were at PETCO Park. Sanchez pitched 12 innings against the Padres and had a 1.50 ERA last year. The odds are terrific but Sanchez is a solid starter against San Diego for the Giants.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
My next pick was the St. Louis Blues at home. They took a 2-0 lead after the first period, converting 2 of 3 power plays and and limiting Columbus to 5 shots on goal. Columbus scored four minutes in to the second period but St. Louis was able to get a goal back four minutes later. The third period went scoreless and the Blues picked up a 3-1 victory to clinch a playoff spot. Columbus took 17 shots on goal for the entire game and had zero power play opportunities. St. Louis spent two minutes in the box and converted a third of their power plays. So on to the picks.
1) Hull City @ Middlesbrough – Hull City win or draw
2) Ryuji Imada vs. Stuart Appleby – Imada cards a lower front 9 score
3) Carolina Hurricanes @ New Jersey Devils – Carolina
4) Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Indians – Toronto
5) How many holes under par will Tiger Woods card: 5 or more or 4 or less – 4 or less
6) Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds – Cincinnati
7) Geoff Ogilvy vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower front 9 score
8) Chad Campbell vs. Kenny Perry – Campbell cards a lower third round score
9) Boston Bruins @ Buffalo Sabres – Buffalo
10) Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards – Busch places lower
11) Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
12) New York Mets @ Florida Marlins – Florida
13) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Montreal Canadiens – Montreal
14) Ottawa Senators @ Toronto Maple Leafs – Toronto
15) Boston University vs. Miami(OH) – 6 goals or more
16) Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves – Minnesota
17) San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres – San Diego
18) Chivas USA @ Los Angeles Galaxy – Chivas USA
Analysis
1) Aside from defeating a distracted and resting Liverpool in February Middlesbrough have not won a match at home since defeating Manchester City in October of 2008 and Manchester City are easily one of the worst road teams in the English Premier. Don’t put too much stock in that win at home versus Liverpool, Hull City played Chelsea to a 0-0 draw at Anfield around the same time. A lot of top 5 English Premier teams underperformed from the middle of February to the beginning of March because of the attention paid to European competition. Every year teams are trying to avoid relegation and lose 2 points or all 3 at home in must win matches against ‘relatively weak sides’. And every year three clubs are relegated. Here is what tells me Hull City is the best bet here. Hull City hasn’t lost a game on the road this season to anyone lower than 10th in the tables. They have collected more points on the road than they have at home, 20 to 14. Hull City are 7th place in the Premier League in terms of points earned on the road. Middlesbrough have lost and drawn to far worse road sides, e.g. Portsmouth D 1-1, West Brom L 0-1, Newcastle United D 0-0, Sunderland D 1-1, Bolton Wanderers L 1-3. Check these teams’ road records, they are not performing as well on the road as Hull City.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
2) Ryuji Imada finished 13th on the money list last year and Stuart Appleby finished 22nd. Imada did play in two more events but won an average of $12,000 more per event. He had two event wins and two other top 5 finishes compared to Appleby finishing in the top 5 twice. In this year’s Masters Imada carded a lower front 9 score by one stroke in the first round and by two strokes in the second round. In the past 8 years Appleby has never improved his front 9 score from the 2nd round to the 3rd round at Augusta. I think Appleby will score anywhere from 2 under to 2 over which I think is generous since 2 under would be an improvement. I also think Imada will score from 3 under to 2 over which would be a four stroke slide. With each score in that range being equally probable Imada has a 50% chance of winning, Appleby has a 33% chance of winning and there is a 17% chance they score the same. I think Imada is a better golfer at this point in their careers and that will overcome Appleby’s experience at Augusta.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
3) Carolina is 9-1-0 in their last 10 games and 3-2-0 in their last 5 on the road. New Jersey is 3-6-1 in their last 10 games and 2-1-1 in their last 5 at home. During that time Martin Brodeur has started each game. He has a 3.3 GAA and has made saves on 88.9% of shots on goal in those 10 games. Cam Ward will not be starting tonight for Carolina, with Mike Leighton taking the net in his place. Leighton has 18 starts on the season and a 2.91 GAA with saves on 90% of the shots taken at him. New Jersey are favored at -120 in Vegas and Carolina is at even odds.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
8) Kenny Perry hasn’t played in the Masters since 2005. This is his 9th Masters appearance. He’s been cut 5 times and his best finish was tied for 12th with 5 under in 1995. It’s the only time he’s finished under par. This is Chad Campbell’s 6th Masters appearance and first since 2007. He has been cut 3 times and his best finish was tied for 3rd in 2006 at 4 under par. Both of these golfers will probably tank out of the top 10 after today but Campbell has finished higher than Perry more often and more recently.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
11) The Boston Red Sox are -130 favorites with the Los Angeles Angels being +110 underdogs. Home underdogs are 12-7 in Major League Baseball so far this season. Contrary to the listing on the streak board Joe Saunders will be starting for Los Angeles. Saunders is 7-0 in April from ‘06 to ’08 with a 2.04 ERA in over 61 innings pitched. He’s 4-0 against the Red Sox in that time with an ERA of 2.89 in just over 37 innings pitched. He’s 15-9 at Angel Stadium with a 4.77 ERA in 203 innings. Penny is also pretty good in April but the last time he pitched against the Angels he got rocked for 8 runs in 5 innings, but that was in 2007.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
12) Florida has terrific odds at home here being -150 favorites and New York being +130 underdogs. Florida is starting Nolasco on the mound, considered to be one of their best starting pitchers. He has struggled a bit against the Mets in the past, however, with a 6.28 ERA over the past 3 years in 47 innings pitched. He has pitched more innings against New York than any other team and his ERA is higher versus the Mets than any other team. New York is starting Livan Hernandez who has not fared any better against Florida. He has allowed 23 runs in nearly 29 innings pitched. This is Florida’s home opener and being the favorites with Nolasco on the mound should give them the advantage.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
15) The odds on the over/under here are pretty much dead even. I watched the game with Vermont and Boston University and Boston has an incredible team. They were getting takeaways at an incredible rate which will create scoring opportunities. Madore started as goalie for Vermont and he is going to be an NHL starter in a few years. In one of the Vermont defeats Boston U had 41 of their 44 shots saved by Madore. Against Miami(OH) Boston should be able to score more easily and for every goal Miami(OH) may score Boston will up the intensity to score another.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
16) Phoenix is favored by 3 points in this game. This could easily be another game where Phoenix puts 13 different players on the court by half time. Minnesota is a team like Memphis who are just trying to get wins at the end of the season to get a feel for what it feels like and for their home fans.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
17) Well I must admit I’m not too familiar with these teams yet or the pitchers on the mound. The lines have moved in favor of the Padres since they opened last night, however. Currently San Diego are favored at -160 and San Francisco are +150 underdogs. In terms of percent chance winning with the bookmakers’ profit margins being accounted for that is the Padres at 60.6% and the Giants at 39.4%. Here a few pitching stats. Peavy has a 2.71 ERA in PETCO park in the past 341 innings he has pitched there. Last year Peavy was 0-2 against the Giants with a 3.60 ERA in 15 innings and 10 strikeouts and 2 walks. Both losses were at PETCO Park. Sanchez pitched 12 innings against the Padres and had a 1.50 ERA last year. The odds are terrific but Sanchez is a solid starter against San Diego for the Giants.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
Friday, April 10, 2009
April 10th, 2009 Picks
It feels much later than 11:30, 3-0-0 today. My first pick was Chez Reavie to card the lower front 9 score. Chez Reavie took an early 1 stroke lead when he birdied the par-5 #2. He bogeyed on #3 to move back to even par but Woosnam hit a bogey as well. At the par-5 8th hole Woosnam managed another bogey giving Reavie a two stroke lead heading into the last hole. Reavie saved his par as did Woosnam and Reavie carded an even par 36 while Woosnam carded a two over 38.
My second pick was Shakhtar Donetsk. Olympique Marseille would have been happy with a draw in this matchup and were playing a more defensive game in the first half. They took four shots in the first 45 minutes as Donetsk were terrific at getting a foot or head on the ball to stop attacks. Marseille played fantastic controlling the tempo and winning nearly every challenge on lobbed passes. Tomas Hubschman scored off a header at 36' minute to give Donetsk the 1-0 lead.
Without an away goal and down by one Marseille went into the attack more taking five shots in the first 15 minutes of the 2nd half. Some fantastic saves by Shakhtar’s defense kept Marseille out of the nets and Donetsk eventually regained the momentum. Any time they were within 18 yards they were a danger to score with aggressive passing but waiting to take a shot until a perfect opportunity opened up. It’s a credit to Marseille they only allowed a single goal in the second half to Rodrigues Jadson 65' minute. Shakhtar survived another flurry from Marseilles and came out with the 2-0 victory.
My third pick was Boston University. With the odds favoring them to win at -250 or so it was as good a choice as any one will see on the Streak here. Many times a pick with 90 percent will lose because they are only favored at -150 or even be underdogs in the sports books. Boston came out intercepting crisp passes from Vermont and utilizing outstanding stick play to block shots. Boston was up 2-0 at the end of the first period. Boston players were sent to the box 4 times three of which were converted by Vermont. A power play goal by the Terriers square at three after two. Vermont went up on a power play goal midway through the third period and Boston failed to take any dangerous shots on a power play of their own. Seconds after the aborted attempt they scored to tie things up and scored again a minute later. Their defense held Vermont off and Boston University advanced to the NCAA Championship with a 5-4 win. So on to the picks.
1) Tom Watson or Steve Wilson vs. Ian Poulter – Poulter cards a lower front 9 score
2) Tiger Woods’ 2nd Round Score: 69 or lower vs. 70 or higher – 69 or lower
3) Rory McIlroy vs. Anthony Kim – Kim cards a lower front 9 score
4) Maritimo @ Braga – Braga win
5) Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers – Detroit
6) Jim Furyk vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower 2nd round score
7) Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies – Colorado
8) New York Mets @ Florida Marlins – Florida
9) Nashville Predators @ Minnesota Wild – Minnesota
10) Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies – Phoenix
11) Larry Hughes vs. Orlando Magic win margin – Orlando win margin
12) St. Louis Blues @ Columbus Blues Jackets – St. Louis
13) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Los Angeles
14) Los Angeles Lakers @ Portland Trailblazers – Los Angeles
15) Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
Shouts to nawledge, i dunno, Boogie, 9@home, and Espiv.
Analysis
1) Steve Wilson is the current Mid-Amateur Champion which is how he got the invite to Augusta this year. He hit four over in the first round and an even par front 9 would be a terrific accomplishment for him. Tom Watson is another 50+ year old golfer who won in 1981 and so has a lifetime invite to the Masters. Poulter is the clear favorite. I took the front 9 scores of Poulter and Watson going back to 2001 and calculated averages and median scores. Poulter averages +1.29 on the front 9 and Watson averages +1.26, while their median score is +1. I looked at how they did from the first and second rounds and came up with a range of scores they could be expected to hit within. I assigned an equal probability to each score within that range. For wilson I assumed he could hit anywhere from even par to +8. I took the intersection and unions of subsets that would result in a Poulter win, a push, and a Poulter loss. The result was Poulter wins at 60.3%, a push is at 15.9%, and Poulter loses at 23.8%. I was fairly conservative with the range of Poulter’s scores assuming he would hit anywhere from 2 under to 1 over par and fairly generous with Watson assuming he would hit anywhere from 2 under par to 4 over par. At 60% Poulter is a -150 favorite to win. Actual sports books have him a -275 favorite.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
3) Well, it’s too late for this. I had Kim as the pick here because he has a proven track record of success. Kim had won his first PGA Tour event at 22, his second soon after turning 23, defeated the 2nd overall world ranked golfer, Sergio Garcia, in the Ryder Cup last year, and finished 2008 6th on the PGA Tour’s money list. At Doral Kim and McIlroy hit the same score on the front 9 in two rounds, and each hit a lower score on one round. At the Shell Houston Open Kim scored lower on two rounds, they pushed once, and McIlroy had the lower score in one round. With McIlroy not having won a Tour event before I would say it’s safest to go with Kim, even after Kim was two strokes worse on the front 9 yesterday.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) Well skybet.com has the odds for Braga a win at 4:5 and a Maritimo win at 10:3 with the draw at 9:4. In terms of money lines that’s -125 for Braga with Maritimo being +333, and the draw being +225. Those are good odds for the home team without the and draw option. Without the bookmakers profits Braga are 50% favorites to win, Maritimo are given a 21.1% chance and the draw a 28.8% chance. Braga is 7-3-2 at home with 15 goals for and 6 goals against. They had a 5-0 home victory over Estrela Amadora so they generally average 0.91 goals at home and allow 0.5 goals. Maritimo is 3-4-4 on the road with 10 goals scored and 10 goals against. Braga has shut out their opponents in all seven of their victories at home but have lost or drawn every match in which their opponent has scored. Maritimo has only been shut out four times in 11 away matches, and only twice did they lose in those matches. They played FC Porto to a 0-0 draw at Porto. Looking at the players who have been called to the teams it looks like Alberto Ze Meyong did not meet fitness requirements for the match and will not play. Still, Braga should be able to win 1-0 as they have never been held scoreless at home, but if Maritimo scores I wouldn’t like Braga’s chances.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) In the past 10 years at the Masters Mickelson has averaged 70.2 in the second round while Furyk has averaged 72.6. Furyk shot a 6 under par 66 yesterday which is his best round at Augusta in over 10 years. In the past years he has shot a 68 twice and was seven over par in the subsequent round. He had a round of 69 once and shot a 71 the round after, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Furyk went all the way to even par or over par for this round. Mickelson averages cutting a stroke off his first round score in the past 10 years while Furyk generally adds a stroke to his second round score. Mickelson has been going through a phase where he cuts three strokes off his second round score for two years, then adds a couple of strokes the next two years. He’s in a year where he adds strokes to his round. So if you believe in patterns take Furyk but otherwise go with Mickelson.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
9) Minnesota is 5-4-1 in their last 10 games, and 3-0-2 at home recently, including a 4-0 thrashing of Calgary. Nashville is 5-3-2 in their past 10 and 2-2-1 on the road. Nashville is 2-1-0 against Minnesota this season, winning in Minnesota but also losing in Nashville. Nashville is on the second night of a back-to-back with a record of 6-4-2 in such games. I’ll update later with the goalie situation. Nashville needs two points to stay in the playoff race but if Niklas Backstrom is starting for the Wild it means they’re taking the game just as seriously.
UPDATE: Backstrom is starting, and why wouldn’t he? The Wild must win out to have a chance at the playoffs.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
11) Orlando is favored by 11 points in Vegas, so they’ll either not cover the spread and win by 5 or win by 20 or more. A loss is fairly unlikely except for the Knicks have given Orlando trouble this year. The Knicks have lost by 5, 7, and 4 points this year to Orlando. In those games Hughes scored 2 points in 15 minutes, 0 points in 14 minutes, and did not play in the third game. Hughes had a stretch of games from the end of February until the end of March where he averaged 19.8 points per game. He’s been dealing with injury however and should see limited minutes tonight. If Hughes plays 20 minutes and scores 8 points if the Knicks can avoid the blowout Hughes just might win this prop.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
14) The Lakers are a half game back from Cleveland for the best record in the NBA. They’re coming off a solid victory over Denver last night where Andrew Bynum returned to the lineup. At 63-16 you know they have a good record on back to back games and on the road. The 1-2-3 punch of Bynum, Gasol, and Kobe should be too much for the TrailBlazers to handle, just like it was earlier in the year when they lost by double digits in L.A.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
15) For the moment I’m not sure about the pitchers in this game but I do know that the Angels are going to be playing to honor their departed friend and teammate Nick Adenhart.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
My second pick was Shakhtar Donetsk. Olympique Marseille would have been happy with a draw in this matchup and were playing a more defensive game in the first half. They took four shots in the first 45 minutes as Donetsk were terrific at getting a foot or head on the ball to stop attacks. Marseille played fantastic controlling the tempo and winning nearly every challenge on lobbed passes. Tomas Hubschman scored off a header at 36' minute to give Donetsk the 1-0 lead.
Without an away goal and down by one Marseille went into the attack more taking five shots in the first 15 minutes of the 2nd half. Some fantastic saves by Shakhtar’s defense kept Marseille out of the nets and Donetsk eventually regained the momentum. Any time they were within 18 yards they were a danger to score with aggressive passing but waiting to take a shot until a perfect opportunity opened up. It’s a credit to Marseille they only allowed a single goal in the second half to Rodrigues Jadson 65' minute. Shakhtar survived another flurry from Marseilles and came out with the 2-0 victory.
My third pick was Boston University. With the odds favoring them to win at -250 or so it was as good a choice as any one will see on the Streak here. Many times a pick with 90 percent will lose because they are only favored at -150 or even be underdogs in the sports books. Boston came out intercepting crisp passes from Vermont and utilizing outstanding stick play to block shots. Boston was up 2-0 at the end of the first period. Boston players were sent to the box 4 times three of which were converted by Vermont. A power play goal by the Terriers square at three after two. Vermont went up on a power play goal midway through the third period and Boston failed to take any dangerous shots on a power play of their own. Seconds after the aborted attempt they scored to tie things up and scored again a minute later. Their defense held Vermont off and Boston University advanced to the NCAA Championship with a 5-4 win. So on to the picks.
1) Tom Watson or Steve Wilson vs. Ian Poulter – Poulter cards a lower front 9 score
2) Tiger Woods’ 2nd Round Score: 69 or lower vs. 70 or higher – 69 or lower
3) Rory McIlroy vs. Anthony Kim – Kim cards a lower front 9 score
4) Maritimo @ Braga – Braga win
5) Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers – Detroit
6) Jim Furyk vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower 2nd round score
7) Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies – Colorado
8) New York Mets @ Florida Marlins – Florida
9) Nashville Predators @ Minnesota Wild – Minnesota
10) Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies – Phoenix
11) Larry Hughes vs. Orlando Magic win margin – Orlando win margin
12) St. Louis Blues @ Columbus Blues Jackets – St. Louis
13) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Los Angeles
14) Los Angeles Lakers @ Portland Trailblazers – Los Angeles
15) Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
Shouts to nawledge, i dunno, Boogie, 9@home, and Espiv.
Analysis
1) Steve Wilson is the current Mid-Amateur Champion which is how he got the invite to Augusta this year. He hit four over in the first round and an even par front 9 would be a terrific accomplishment for him. Tom Watson is another 50+ year old golfer who won in 1981 and so has a lifetime invite to the Masters. Poulter is the clear favorite. I took the front 9 scores of Poulter and Watson going back to 2001 and calculated averages and median scores. Poulter averages +1.29 on the front 9 and Watson averages +1.26, while their median score is +1. I looked at how they did from the first and second rounds and came up with a range of scores they could be expected to hit within. I assigned an equal probability to each score within that range. For wilson I assumed he could hit anywhere from even par to +8. I took the intersection and unions of subsets that would result in a Poulter win, a push, and a Poulter loss. The result was Poulter wins at 60.3%, a push is at 15.9%, and Poulter loses at 23.8%. I was fairly conservative with the range of Poulter’s scores assuming he would hit anywhere from 2 under to 1 over par and fairly generous with Watson assuming he would hit anywhere from 2 under par to 4 over par. At 60% Poulter is a -150 favorite to win. Actual sports books have him a -275 favorite.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
3) Well, it’s too late for this. I had Kim as the pick here because he has a proven track record of success. Kim had won his first PGA Tour event at 22, his second soon after turning 23, defeated the 2nd overall world ranked golfer, Sergio Garcia, in the Ryder Cup last year, and finished 2008 6th on the PGA Tour’s money list. At Doral Kim and McIlroy hit the same score on the front 9 in two rounds, and each hit a lower score on one round. At the Shell Houston Open Kim scored lower on two rounds, they pushed once, and McIlroy had the lower score in one round. With McIlroy not having won a Tour event before I would say it’s safest to go with Kim, even after Kim was two strokes worse on the front 9 yesterday.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) Well skybet.com has the odds for Braga a win at 4:5 and a Maritimo win at 10:3 with the draw at 9:4. In terms of money lines that’s -125 for Braga with Maritimo being +333, and the draw being +225. Those are good odds for the home team without the and draw option. Without the bookmakers profits Braga are 50% favorites to win, Maritimo are given a 21.1% chance and the draw a 28.8% chance. Braga is 7-3-2 at home with 15 goals for and 6 goals against. They had a 5-0 home victory over Estrela Amadora so they generally average 0.91 goals at home and allow 0.5 goals. Maritimo is 3-4-4 on the road with 10 goals scored and 10 goals against. Braga has shut out their opponents in all seven of their victories at home but have lost or drawn every match in which their opponent has scored. Maritimo has only been shut out four times in 11 away matches, and only twice did they lose in those matches. They played FC Porto to a 0-0 draw at Porto. Looking at the players who have been called to the teams it looks like Alberto Ze Meyong did not meet fitness requirements for the match and will not play. Still, Braga should be able to win 1-0 as they have never been held scoreless at home, but if Maritimo scores I wouldn’t like Braga’s chances.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) In the past 10 years at the Masters Mickelson has averaged 70.2 in the second round while Furyk has averaged 72.6. Furyk shot a 6 under par 66 yesterday which is his best round at Augusta in over 10 years. In the past years he has shot a 68 twice and was seven over par in the subsequent round. He had a round of 69 once and shot a 71 the round after, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Furyk went all the way to even par or over par for this round. Mickelson averages cutting a stroke off his first round score in the past 10 years while Furyk generally adds a stroke to his second round score. Mickelson has been going through a phase where he cuts three strokes off his second round score for two years, then adds a couple of strokes the next two years. He’s in a year where he adds strokes to his round. So if you believe in patterns take Furyk but otherwise go with Mickelson.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
9) Minnesota is 5-4-1 in their last 10 games, and 3-0-2 at home recently, including a 4-0 thrashing of Calgary. Nashville is 5-3-2 in their past 10 and 2-2-1 on the road. Nashville is 2-1-0 against Minnesota this season, winning in Minnesota but also losing in Nashville. Nashville is on the second night of a back-to-back with a record of 6-4-2 in such games. I’ll update later with the goalie situation. Nashville needs two points to stay in the playoff race but if Niklas Backstrom is starting for the Wild it means they’re taking the game just as seriously.
UPDATE: Backstrom is starting, and why wouldn’t he? The Wild must win out to have a chance at the playoffs.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
11) Orlando is favored by 11 points in Vegas, so they’ll either not cover the spread and win by 5 or win by 20 or more. A loss is fairly unlikely except for the Knicks have given Orlando trouble this year. The Knicks have lost by 5, 7, and 4 points this year to Orlando. In those games Hughes scored 2 points in 15 minutes, 0 points in 14 minutes, and did not play in the third game. Hughes had a stretch of games from the end of February until the end of March where he averaged 19.8 points per game. He’s been dealing with injury however and should see limited minutes tonight. If Hughes plays 20 minutes and scores 8 points if the Knicks can avoid the blowout Hughes just might win this prop.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
14) The Lakers are a half game back from Cleveland for the best record in the NBA. They’re coming off a solid victory over Denver last night where Andrew Bynum returned to the lineup. At 63-16 you know they have a good record on back to back games and on the road. The 1-2-3 punch of Bynum, Gasol, and Kobe should be too much for the TrailBlazers to handle, just like it was earlier in the year when they lost by double digits in L.A.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
15) For the moment I’m not sure about the pitchers in this game but I do know that the Angels are going to be playing to honor their departed friend and teammate Nick Adenhart.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
Thursday, April 9, 2009
April 9th, 2009 Picks
1-1-0 again. I started off picking China in curling. The small asterisk in the Curlcast boxscores denotes which team has the last rock advantage in the first end, and in every other end afterwards. China and Denmark traded scoring rocks when they had the advantage but Denmark could not capitalize in the 4th end and China took a 4-1 advantage after the 5th. Denmark then made a comeback, keeping China scoreless in the 7th end and tying it up 4-4 after the 8th end. China and Denmark each scored two in the next two ends and it was tied 6-6 and went into an 11th end, with China having the last rock advantage. They made good and won the draw 7-6 over Denmark.
My second pick was the Red Sox over the Rays. This time the Rays struck first with Iwamura scoring after Youkilis committed an error on a throw to second. Youkilis was trying to throw out Bartlett but the ball bounced off Bartlett’s back and into left field, allowing the run to score. Youkilis made up for it in the bottom of the 3rd when he drove in Pedroia to tie the score at 1-1. In the 5th inning the Rays finally figured out Lester’s stuff. There was a bunt single RBI, SS-2B-3B double play that left the runner at 3B safe to cross home and a Carlos Pena two run homer, his first hit this season.
Evan Longoria extended the lead to 6-1 with a solo home run in the 8th inning. The Red Sox had an aborted comeback attempt in the bottom of the inning. Bay hit an RBI double and Howell hit the next batter with a pitch to load the bases with the tying run coming up to bat. Howell saved the inning with a strikeout leaving all three runners stranded. The Rays got another run in the 9th inning and Grant Balfour retired the Sox 1-2-3 to finish them off. Tampa Bay won at Fenway 7-2. So on to the picks of another day.
1) Ian Woosnam vs. Chez Reavie – Reavie cards a lower front 9 score
2) South Africa vs. Australia – South Africa
3) Camilo Villegas vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower front 9 score
4) Olympique Marseille @ Shakhtar Donetsk – Shakhtar Donetsk win
5) Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
6) Tiger Woods vs. Stewart Cink or Jeev Singh – Woods cards a lower 1st round score
7) Cleveland Indians @ Texas Rangers – Texas
8) Manchester City @ Hamburg SV – Hamburg SV win
9) Bemidji State vs. Miami (OH) – Bemidji State
10) Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants – Milwaukee
11) New Jersey Devils @ Ottawa Senators – Ottawa
12) Vermont vs. Boston University – Boston University
13) Dallas Stars @ Colorado Avalanche – Colorado
14) Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
15) Carmelo Anthony vs. Kobe Bryant – Bryant pts.
Analysis
1) Ian Woosnam has played in 20 Masters Tournaments in his career, winning his fourth in 1991. Recently he has not been as successful, finishing 44th last year, and missing the cut from 2001 to 2006. He finished 40th in 2000. This is Chez Reavie’s 2nd Masters, with his only other appearance being in 2002 where he missed the cut with a score of +16. On the front 9 Reavie did not do too terribly, however, scoring +2 in the first round and +3 in the second. Woosnam’s front 9 scores from 2001-2006/2008 are: +1, -1, +2, +3, +3, E, +3, +4, +2, +1, +2, +1, +5, +2, E, and +4. Woosnam’s average and median score is +2, while Reavie’s average and median score is +2.5. As far as 1st round front nines Woosnam has carded: +1, +3, +3, +2, +2, +5, E. Average: +2.29, median: +2. Reavie’s first round average and median is +2. Reavie won the RBC Canadian Open last year. Past winners at the RBC include Jim Furyk, Vijay Singh, and Tiger Woods. Reavie made $1.4 million on the PGA Tour in 2008 and finished 71st on the money list but played in 30 events. Ian Woosnam made just over $200,000 on the Champions Tour (for golfers over 50 years old) and finished 66th on the money list, but only played in 9 of 29 events.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Villegas’ front 9 scores in 2008 and 2007 were: +1, +4, +3, +6. His first round front 9 scores are +1 and +3. Mickelson has played in 16 Masters before, and from 2008-2001 he has scored: -1, -3, +1, E, +4, +2, E, +4, -1, -1, -2, -2 (won in ‘06), -1, +1, -2, -1, -1, E, -3, +2 (won in ’04), +2, -4, +1, -1, -2, -1, -2, E, -1, -3, -2, -2. Mickelson’s first round front 9 scores were -1, +4, -1, -1, -1, +2, -2, -1. So aside from 2007 where he averaged +2.5 on the front nine Lefty looks like an awesome pick to win with Villegas averaging +3.5 on the front 9’s and +2 in the first round compared to Mickelson’s averages of -0.6 overall and -0.1 in the first round.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
4) Shakhtar Donetsk play in the Ukrainian Premiere League and have notched 12 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses. In the UEFA Cup they have played two home matches, one a 2-0 win over CSKA Moscow and the other a 2-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur. In December the traveled to Spain and defeated Barcelona 3-2, avenging an earlier home defeat. In their previous home match in the Champions League they defeated FC Basel 5-0. All in all Shakhtar are 4-0-2 (W-D-L) at home in UEFA Cup and Champions League matches, with 12 goals scored and 3 goals against. They will be missing Igor Duljaj who has played well for them in the UEFA Cup but has also been a substitute or missing from some of their more impressive Champions League victories. Olympique Marseille play in the French Lige 1. They have 16 wins, 10 draws, and 4 losses domestically. In the UEFA Cup they squeaked past Twente Enschede after a shoot out and only managed to defeat Ajax Amsterdam with an extra-time goal. They will be missing strikers Brandao and Wiltord. Brandao was recently signed away from Shakhtar Donetsk and has come on well for Marseille with a goal in each of Marseille’s previous two domestic matches. Marseille are 2-1-3 in UEFA Cup and Champions League away matches with 5 goals scored and 7 goals against. Odds makers have Shakhtar Donetsk winning at +100, Marseille winning at +250 and a draw at +225.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) Hamburg SV are riddled with injuries at the moment and are having difficulty putting together a full 14 man squad. Mladen Petric is fully fit, however, and if Guerrero is able to play that would but Hamburg’s top two goal scorers on the pitch. Ivica Olic is also a probable starter. Petric is Hamburg SV’s leading goal scorer in domestic play and Olic is the leading scorer in UEFA Cup play with 7 goals overall, 5 goals in the past 5 matches, and at least one goal in 4 of the past 5. Manchester City will be without defender Vincent Kompany and midfielder Nigel De Jong. Manchester is a +280 to +300 underdog with a draw at +225 odds. Hamburg has even odds placed on them and some books have them as -120 favorites.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
10) Parra has done well against the Giants, pitching in 5 games in 2008 and 2007 with an ERA of 2.95. At AT&T Park Parra has pitched 102/3 innings with 3 earned runs allowed for a ERA of 2.53. Parra is 2-0 in his starts against the Giants. Cain has pitched 13 innings against the Brewers with an ERA of 5.54. At AT&T Park his ERA against the Brewers was 4.50 in one game which the Giants lost.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
11) Ottawa is riding a 9 game home winning streak and have won their last 3 overall. New Jersey is 3-6-1 in their last 10 games and 1-3-1 on the road recently. Ottawa is 0-2-1 against New Jersey this season with all three losses coming against Clemmensen in net for the Devils. It is likely to be Brodeur in net for the Devils in this game facing off against Alex Auld. Ottawa is a slight favorite on the money lines.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
13) Dallas is 2-6-2 in their last 10 games and 1-3-1 on the road recently. They have scored an average of 2.8 goals in their past 5 games while allowing 3.2 goals. Against Colorado this season they are 1-2-0 against the Avalanche this season with the lone win being in a shootout at home. Colorado are even worse lately going 1-7-2 in their last 10 games and 1-4-0 at home recently. They have lost their past 4 games at home as they recently went through an 8 game losing streak. Their past two games have shown a return to form, however. They won at Vancouver 4-1 against Roberto Luongo and a team who had been undefeated in regulation in their last 12 home games. They then lost in San Jose in a shootout. Budaj will start for the Avalanche while Matt Climie is probable to start for Dallas before he returns to the minor leagues.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
15) Kobe Bryant has won this prop in the previous three meetings with the Denver Nuggets this season. The first two matchups were in November and Andrew Bynum was playing. Kobe won 33-17 and 29-20. The third matchup was in February with Bynum out and Kobe won 29-24. Andrew Bynum is reported to be returning to the lineup for this game which could make it much more difficult for Anthony collect rebounds or score. Another scenario is that the Lakers attempt to involve Bynum in the offense immediately, maximizing his touches on each possession leading to Bryant shooting fewer shots and scoring fewer points. I will take Bryant to score more points against a Nuggets team that allows over 100 points per game.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
My second pick was the Red Sox over the Rays. This time the Rays struck first with Iwamura scoring after Youkilis committed an error on a throw to second. Youkilis was trying to throw out Bartlett but the ball bounced off Bartlett’s back and into left field, allowing the run to score. Youkilis made up for it in the bottom of the 3rd when he drove in Pedroia to tie the score at 1-1. In the 5th inning the Rays finally figured out Lester’s stuff. There was a bunt single RBI, SS-2B-3B double play that left the runner at 3B safe to cross home and a Carlos Pena two run homer, his first hit this season.
Evan Longoria extended the lead to 6-1 with a solo home run in the 8th inning. The Red Sox had an aborted comeback attempt in the bottom of the inning. Bay hit an RBI double and Howell hit the next batter with a pitch to load the bases with the tying run coming up to bat. Howell saved the inning with a strikeout leaving all three runners stranded. The Rays got another run in the 9th inning and Grant Balfour retired the Sox 1-2-3 to finish them off. Tampa Bay won at Fenway 7-2. So on to the picks of another day.
1) Ian Woosnam vs. Chez Reavie – Reavie cards a lower front 9 score
2) South Africa vs. Australia – South Africa
3) Camilo Villegas vs. Phil Mickelson – Mickelson cards a lower front 9 score
4) Olympique Marseille @ Shakhtar Donetsk – Shakhtar Donetsk win
5) Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays – Toronto
6) Tiger Woods vs. Stewart Cink or Jeev Singh – Woods cards a lower 1st round score
7) Cleveland Indians @ Texas Rangers – Texas
8) Manchester City @ Hamburg SV – Hamburg SV win
9) Bemidji State vs. Miami (OH) – Bemidji State
10) Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants – Milwaukee
11) New Jersey Devils @ Ottawa Senators – Ottawa
12) Vermont vs. Boston University – Boston University
13) Dallas Stars @ Colorado Avalanche – Colorado
14) Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
15) Carmelo Anthony vs. Kobe Bryant – Bryant pts.
Analysis
1) Ian Woosnam has played in 20 Masters Tournaments in his career, winning his fourth in 1991. Recently he has not been as successful, finishing 44th last year, and missing the cut from 2001 to 2006. He finished 40th in 2000. This is Chez Reavie’s 2nd Masters, with his only other appearance being in 2002 where he missed the cut with a score of +16. On the front 9 Reavie did not do too terribly, however, scoring +2 in the first round and +3 in the second. Woosnam’s front 9 scores from 2001-2006/2008 are: +1, -1, +2, +3, +3, E, +3, +4, +2, +1, +2, +1, +5, +2, E, and +4. Woosnam’s average and median score is +2, while Reavie’s average and median score is +2.5. As far as 1st round front nines Woosnam has carded: +1, +3, +3, +2, +2, +5, E. Average: +2.29, median: +2. Reavie’s first round average and median is +2. Reavie won the RBC Canadian Open last year. Past winners at the RBC include Jim Furyk, Vijay Singh, and Tiger Woods. Reavie made $1.4 million on the PGA Tour in 2008 and finished 71st on the money list but played in 30 events. Ian Woosnam made just over $200,000 on the Champions Tour (for golfers over 50 years old) and finished 66th on the money list, but only played in 9 of 29 events.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Villegas’ front 9 scores in 2008 and 2007 were: +1, +4, +3, +6. His first round front 9 scores are +1 and +3. Mickelson has played in 16 Masters before, and from 2008-2001 he has scored: -1, -3, +1, E, +4, +2, E, +4, -1, -1, -2, -2 (won in ‘06), -1, +1, -2, -1, -1, E, -3, +2 (won in ’04), +2, -4, +1, -1, -2, -1, -2, E, -1, -3, -2, -2. Mickelson’s first round front 9 scores were -1, +4, -1, -1, -1, +2, -2, -1. So aside from 2007 where he averaged +2.5 on the front nine Lefty looks like an awesome pick to win with Villegas averaging +3.5 on the front 9’s and +2 in the first round compared to Mickelson’s averages of -0.6 overall and -0.1 in the first round.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
4) Shakhtar Donetsk play in the Ukrainian Premiere League and have notched 12 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses. In the UEFA Cup they have played two home matches, one a 2-0 win over CSKA Moscow and the other a 2-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur. In December the traveled to Spain and defeated Barcelona 3-2, avenging an earlier home defeat. In their previous home match in the Champions League they defeated FC Basel 5-0. All in all Shakhtar are 4-0-2 (W-D-L) at home in UEFA Cup and Champions League matches, with 12 goals scored and 3 goals against. They will be missing Igor Duljaj who has played well for them in the UEFA Cup but has also been a substitute or missing from some of their more impressive Champions League victories. Olympique Marseille play in the French Lige 1. They have 16 wins, 10 draws, and 4 losses domestically. In the UEFA Cup they squeaked past Twente Enschede after a shoot out and only managed to defeat Ajax Amsterdam with an extra-time goal. They will be missing strikers Brandao and Wiltord. Brandao was recently signed away from Shakhtar Donetsk and has come on well for Marseille with a goal in each of Marseille’s previous two domestic matches. Marseille are 2-1-3 in UEFA Cup and Champions League away matches with 5 goals scored and 7 goals against. Odds makers have Shakhtar Donetsk winning at +100, Marseille winning at +250 and a draw at +225.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) Hamburg SV are riddled with injuries at the moment and are having difficulty putting together a full 14 man squad. Mladen Petric is fully fit, however, and if Guerrero is able to play that would but Hamburg’s top two goal scorers on the pitch. Ivica Olic is also a probable starter. Petric is Hamburg SV’s leading goal scorer in domestic play and Olic is the leading scorer in UEFA Cup play with 7 goals overall, 5 goals in the past 5 matches, and at least one goal in 4 of the past 5. Manchester City will be without defender Vincent Kompany and midfielder Nigel De Jong. Manchester is a +280 to +300 underdog with a draw at +225 odds. Hamburg has even odds placed on them and some books have them as -120 favorites.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
10) Parra has done well against the Giants, pitching in 5 games in 2008 and 2007 with an ERA of 2.95. At AT&T Park Parra has pitched 102/3 innings with 3 earned runs allowed for a ERA of 2.53. Parra is 2-0 in his starts against the Giants. Cain has pitched 13 innings against the Brewers with an ERA of 5.54. At AT&T Park his ERA against the Brewers was 4.50 in one game which the Giants lost.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
11) Ottawa is riding a 9 game home winning streak and have won their last 3 overall. New Jersey is 3-6-1 in their last 10 games and 1-3-1 on the road recently. Ottawa is 0-2-1 against New Jersey this season with all three losses coming against Clemmensen in net for the Devils. It is likely to be Brodeur in net for the Devils in this game facing off against Alex Auld. Ottawa is a slight favorite on the money lines.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
13) Dallas is 2-6-2 in their last 10 games and 1-3-1 on the road recently. They have scored an average of 2.8 goals in their past 5 games while allowing 3.2 goals. Against Colorado this season they are 1-2-0 against the Avalanche this season with the lone win being in a shootout at home. Colorado are even worse lately going 1-7-2 in their last 10 games and 1-4-0 at home recently. They have lost their past 4 games at home as they recently went through an 8 game losing streak. Their past two games have shown a return to form, however. They won at Vancouver 4-1 against Roberto Luongo and a team who had been undefeated in regulation in their last 12 home games. They then lost in San Jose in a shootout. Budaj will start for the Avalanche while Matt Climie is probable to start for Dallas before he returns to the minor leagues.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
15) Kobe Bryant has won this prop in the previous three meetings with the Denver Nuggets this season. The first two matchups were in November and Andrew Bynum was playing. Kobe won 33-17 and 29-20. The third matchup was in February with Bynum out and Kobe won 29-24. Andrew Bynum is reported to be returning to the lineup for this game which could make it much more difficult for Anthony collect rebounds or score. Another scenario is that the Lakers attempt to involve Bynum in the offense immediately, maximizing his touches on each possession leading to Bryant shooting fewer shots and scoring fewer points. I will take Bryant to score more points against a Nuggets team that allows over 100 points per game.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
April 8th, 2009 Picks
1-1-0 today. It all started off nicely as I finally strung together consecutive wins for the 2nd time this round when I picked the Red Sox over the Rays. It started off well when Pedroia hit a solo home run in the bottom of the first. The Rays tied things up in the third off a sacrifice fly. Boston retook the lead immediately as Pedroia and Youkilis got on third and first base with one out and the Sox batted in three runs with their next three at bats. Boston had a tough time scoring in the next few innings and left more than one runner on third base stranded, but Jason Varitek had a solo home run in the sixth to extend their lead to 5-1. In the 8th inning Bartlett and Iwamura both batted onto base and stole third and second respectively. An Evan Longoria single netted two runs and Boston went into the 9th inning up 5-3. Papelbon had two strikeouts in the ninth to finish the save and Boston won 5-3. Josh Beckett had a terrific outing with 10 strikeouts in 7 innings and an ERA of 1.29.
My second pick of the day was the Miami Heat. It was looking bad when Miami went into the half down 40-30 to the Hornets. That’s right, the Hornets scored all of 40 points in the first half and still had a 10 point lead. The Heat battled back behind the fantastic play of Dwyane Wade, including an incredible assist as he drove to the basket and dished out to James Jones in traffic. Jones swished the three pointer to put the Heat up 76-72. David West cut the deficit to 2 for the Hornets with 42 seconds remaining. Miami ran the clock down as far as they possibly could and Michael Beasley drew a foul with no time on the shot clock.
Beasley went to the line and knocked down both to put the Heat back up 78-74. Chris Paul drove coast to coast and cut the lead back down to 2 with 13 seconds remaining. Dwyane Wade was fouled quickly and went to the line where he missed the first free throw and made the second, giving the Hornets a chance to tie the game. Rasual Butler mishandled the pass on the ensuing possession but managed to track it down and threw up a 30 footer with no time on the clock and two defenders in his face. It went in and the game went to overtime. New Orleans took a four point lead but Miami tied it back up at 87-87 with a three pointer by Wade. David West made a jumper and Dwyane Wade fumbled the dribble away with two seconds remaining. The Hornets made their free throws down the stretch and ended up winning 93-87. Wade ended up getting ejected and picking up another technical after he was tossed. So on to the picks.
1) Denmark vs. China – China
2) Ivan Ljubicic vs. Frederico Gil – Gil
3) Washington Nationals vs. Florida Marlins – 5 or more runs through the 4th inning
4) Chelsea @ Liverpool – Liverpool win
5) Luca Toni vs. Thierry Henry – Toni gets more goals and assists
6) Masters Par 3 Contest: American winner vs. Non-American winner – American winner
7) Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies – Philadelphia
8) Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs – San Antonio
9) Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox – Boston
10) New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds – New York
11) Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks – Detroit
12) Cleveland Indians @ Texas Rangers – Cleveland
13) Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks – Utah
14) Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels – Oakland
15) Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants – Milwaukee
Analysis
1) China is currently 2-5 in this years World Championships and Denmark is 4-3. Denmark’s wins have come against teams with a combined record of 11-17 (0.393 win pct.) while China’s wins have come against teams with a combined record of 6-8 (0.429 win pct.). The teams who have defeated Denmark have a record of 10-11 (0.476 win pct.) and the teams who have defeated China have a record of 22-13 (0.629 win pct.). Last year in the Worlds China finished 3rd with a bronze medal and Denmark finished tied for 9th place. China defeated Team Canada 6-5 in that competition and defeated Denmark 8-5 as well. The teams are composed of the same players as last year but the Denmark club has rearranged the positions each man plays. The Chinese curlers do so as a full-time job while the Danish curling club is part time. The article I mentioned the other day says China has a chance of being in the top 4 and making the playoffs while Denmark is a long shot to make the playoffs and “…should finish in the bottom four.”
Confidence: W2 streak or less
3) The Florida Marlins have had their bats cracking against the hapless Nationals pitchers in the first two games this season. In the first game John Lannan had given up 6 runs to the Marlins by the end of the third inning and in the second game Scott Olsen had given up 8 runs. Over the past three years Lannan and Olsen have both done much better with Lannan having given up 9 runs in 30 innings and Olsen having given up 36 runs in 89 innings pitched. That means on average Lannan was allowing one run in 4 innings and Olsen was giving up 1 to 2 runs in that time. Daniel Cabrera has a 4.66 ERA in the past three Aprils and Volstad has never pitched in April but has a 2.88 ERA overall. That comes out to 3 to 4 runs being scored through 4 innings, but with the way the Marlins have been hitting there should be 5 or more runs.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) In the past 2 years Liverpool and Chelsea have played 10 times with 5 Premiere League matches, 4 Champions League face offs, and a Carling Cup tilt. Liverpool’s record in those 10 is 4-3-3 (W-D-L), with their record at Anfield being 3-2-0. Liverpool are 5-0-0 in their past five matches in all competitions while Chelsea are 3-1-1 with a loss at Tottenham Hotspur and a draw at Juventus. This year Liverpool are 2-0-0 against Chelsea in the Premiere League. In the first game at Stamford Liverpool won 1-0 after Chelsea scored an own goal. In the second game at Anfield Chelsea’s Frank Lampard was sent off in the 60th minute with the score at 0-0. Liverpool’s Fernando Torres scored two goals on the 10-man Chelsea, one in the 89th minute, and on in the third minute of injury time. In one of the draws Chelsea had at Anfield Liverpool was leading 1-0 after a Dirk Kuyt goal in the 43rd minute. Then in the fifth minute of injury time at the end of the game Riise accidentally headed in a shot in his own goal and Chelsea came out with a miracle draw. Liverpool has been nearly unbeatable at home even for Chelsea, but in this rivalry anything can and has happened.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) The par 3 contest is where Masters participants, past par 3 contest winners, and ‘Honorary Invitees’ compete on a 9 hole par 3 course. In the past participants have had their children caddie for them and even take putts on the green for them. Tiger Woods will not be participating and Phil Mickelson probably will. I have not been able to find a list of participants.
Confidence: W0 streak or less
9) Aside from the Red Sox being one of the more heavily favored teams to win in Vegas out of the 15 MLB games being played today you have Jon Lester on the mound. Over the past 3 years Lester has a 6-1 record at Fenway against the Rays with a 2.54 ERA in 39 innings pitched. Scott Kazmir is 3-5 at Fenway in that time with a 2.93 ERA in 46 innings. Kazmir has pitched 19 scoreless innings in three games at Fenway but the Rays are only 1-2 in those games.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
12) Texas are -110 favorites at home making after winning the first game against Cleveland 9-1 two nights ago. Carmona is pitching for Cleveland and he is 2-3 overall with a 4.39 ERA in 28.67 innings pitched. At Rangers Ballpark Carmona has pitched 14 innings over the past 3 years and he has allowed 13 hits and zero runs. His ERA against Texas in Texas is 0.00 with a record of 2-0. In the past 3 years Padilla has an ERA of 7.46 against the Indians and a 1-4 record. At home Padilla has an ERA of 8.81 against the Indians and an 0-3 record. That sounds pretty good for Cleveland but if their bats are missing like two nights ago they’ll have a hard time winning.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
13) Utah has won only once this season on the road against a team with a record above .500, two nights ago in New Orleans. Deron Williams and the Jazz have been fairly dominant against Chris Paul and the Hornets since they entered the league so the win may or may not be a breakthrough games in terms of finding a way to win on the road. C.J. Miles is out injured for the Jazz and Andrei Kirilenko is starting in his place. The Mavericks are coming off an incredible 140-116 win at home over the Suns where Jason Kidd passed Magic Johnson for 3rd all-time in assists. I can see them having a bit of a let-down after that game. It will be up to Kirilenko to slow down the incredibly athletic Josh Howard and for Ronnie Brewer to take advantage of an incredible mismatch a shooting guard any time Dallas attempts to play J.J. Barea or Jason Terry alongside Kidd. Dirk Nowitzki should be able to score easily around Carlos Boozer since the Jazz can ill-afford to move Kirilenko onto Nowitzki with Howard on the court.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
15) The San Francisco Giants are slightly favored in Vegas to win at home after winning the first game 10-6. Last year, in 6 games, the Brewers outscored the Giants by an average score of 8.17 to 3.00, and were 6-0 against the Giants. Using Bill James’ pythagorean expectation and last years’ stats the Brewers have a 90.5 percent expectation to win, but from the score of the last game the Giants have an 80 percent expectation. Yovani Gallardo has a 1-1 record against the Giants with a 7.72 ERA, though at AT&T Park Gallardo is 0-1 with an ERA of 15.00. Randy Johnson is 0-2 against the Brewers in the past three years and has a 17.17 ERA at AT&T Park against the Brewers in 3.67 innings pitched.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
My second pick of the day was the Miami Heat. It was looking bad when Miami went into the half down 40-30 to the Hornets. That’s right, the Hornets scored all of 40 points in the first half and still had a 10 point lead. The Heat battled back behind the fantastic play of Dwyane Wade, including an incredible assist as he drove to the basket and dished out to James Jones in traffic. Jones swished the three pointer to put the Heat up 76-72. David West cut the deficit to 2 for the Hornets with 42 seconds remaining. Miami ran the clock down as far as they possibly could and Michael Beasley drew a foul with no time on the shot clock.
Beasley went to the line and knocked down both to put the Heat back up 78-74. Chris Paul drove coast to coast and cut the lead back down to 2 with 13 seconds remaining. Dwyane Wade was fouled quickly and went to the line where he missed the first free throw and made the second, giving the Hornets a chance to tie the game. Rasual Butler mishandled the pass on the ensuing possession but managed to track it down and threw up a 30 footer with no time on the clock and two defenders in his face. It went in and the game went to overtime. New Orleans took a four point lead but Miami tied it back up at 87-87 with a three pointer by Wade. David West made a jumper and Dwyane Wade fumbled the dribble away with two seconds remaining. The Hornets made their free throws down the stretch and ended up winning 93-87. Wade ended up getting ejected and picking up another technical after he was tossed. So on to the picks.
1) Denmark vs. China – China
2) Ivan Ljubicic vs. Frederico Gil – Gil
3) Washington Nationals vs. Florida Marlins – 5 or more runs through the 4th inning
4) Chelsea @ Liverpool – Liverpool win
5) Luca Toni vs. Thierry Henry – Toni gets more goals and assists
6) Masters Par 3 Contest: American winner vs. Non-American winner – American winner
7) Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies – Philadelphia
8) Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs – San Antonio
9) Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox – Boston
10) New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds – New York
11) Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks – Detroit
12) Cleveland Indians @ Texas Rangers – Cleveland
13) Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks – Utah
14) Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels – Oakland
15) Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants – Milwaukee
Analysis
1) China is currently 2-5 in this years World Championships and Denmark is 4-3. Denmark’s wins have come against teams with a combined record of 11-17 (0.393 win pct.) while China’s wins have come against teams with a combined record of 6-8 (0.429 win pct.). The teams who have defeated Denmark have a record of 10-11 (0.476 win pct.) and the teams who have defeated China have a record of 22-13 (0.629 win pct.). Last year in the Worlds China finished 3rd with a bronze medal and Denmark finished tied for 9th place. China defeated Team Canada 6-5 in that competition and defeated Denmark 8-5 as well. The teams are composed of the same players as last year but the Denmark club has rearranged the positions each man plays. The Chinese curlers do so as a full-time job while the Danish curling club is part time. The article I mentioned the other day says China has a chance of being in the top 4 and making the playoffs while Denmark is a long shot to make the playoffs and “…should finish in the bottom four.”
Confidence: W2 streak or less
3) The Florida Marlins have had their bats cracking against the hapless Nationals pitchers in the first two games this season. In the first game John Lannan had given up 6 runs to the Marlins by the end of the third inning and in the second game Scott Olsen had given up 8 runs. Over the past three years Lannan and Olsen have both done much better with Lannan having given up 9 runs in 30 innings and Olsen having given up 36 runs in 89 innings pitched. That means on average Lannan was allowing one run in 4 innings and Olsen was giving up 1 to 2 runs in that time. Daniel Cabrera has a 4.66 ERA in the past three Aprils and Volstad has never pitched in April but has a 2.88 ERA overall. That comes out to 3 to 4 runs being scored through 4 innings, but with the way the Marlins have been hitting there should be 5 or more runs.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) In the past 2 years Liverpool and Chelsea have played 10 times with 5 Premiere League matches, 4 Champions League face offs, and a Carling Cup tilt. Liverpool’s record in those 10 is 4-3-3 (W-D-L), with their record at Anfield being 3-2-0. Liverpool are 5-0-0 in their past five matches in all competitions while Chelsea are 3-1-1 with a loss at Tottenham Hotspur and a draw at Juventus. This year Liverpool are 2-0-0 against Chelsea in the Premiere League. In the first game at Stamford Liverpool won 1-0 after Chelsea scored an own goal. In the second game at Anfield Chelsea’s Frank Lampard was sent off in the 60th minute with the score at 0-0. Liverpool’s Fernando Torres scored two goals on the 10-man Chelsea, one in the 89th minute, and on in the third minute of injury time. In one of the draws Chelsea had at Anfield Liverpool was leading 1-0 after a Dirk Kuyt goal in the 43rd minute. Then in the fifth minute of injury time at the end of the game Riise accidentally headed in a shot in his own goal and Chelsea came out with a miracle draw. Liverpool has been nearly unbeatable at home even for Chelsea, but in this rivalry anything can and has happened.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) The par 3 contest is where Masters participants, past par 3 contest winners, and ‘Honorary Invitees’ compete on a 9 hole par 3 course. In the past participants have had their children caddie for them and even take putts on the green for them. Tiger Woods will not be participating and Phil Mickelson probably will. I have not been able to find a list of participants.
Confidence: W0 streak or less
9) Aside from the Red Sox being one of the more heavily favored teams to win in Vegas out of the 15 MLB games being played today you have Jon Lester on the mound. Over the past 3 years Lester has a 6-1 record at Fenway against the Rays with a 2.54 ERA in 39 innings pitched. Scott Kazmir is 3-5 at Fenway in that time with a 2.93 ERA in 46 innings. Kazmir has pitched 19 scoreless innings in three games at Fenway but the Rays are only 1-2 in those games.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
12) Texas are -110 favorites at home making after winning the first game against Cleveland 9-1 two nights ago. Carmona is pitching for Cleveland and he is 2-3 overall with a 4.39 ERA in 28.67 innings pitched. At Rangers Ballpark Carmona has pitched 14 innings over the past 3 years and he has allowed 13 hits and zero runs. His ERA against Texas in Texas is 0.00 with a record of 2-0. In the past 3 years Padilla has an ERA of 7.46 against the Indians and a 1-4 record. At home Padilla has an ERA of 8.81 against the Indians and an 0-3 record. That sounds pretty good for Cleveland but if their bats are missing like two nights ago they’ll have a hard time winning.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
13) Utah has won only once this season on the road against a team with a record above .500, two nights ago in New Orleans. Deron Williams and the Jazz have been fairly dominant against Chris Paul and the Hornets since they entered the league so the win may or may not be a breakthrough games in terms of finding a way to win on the road. C.J. Miles is out injured for the Jazz and Andrei Kirilenko is starting in his place. The Mavericks are coming off an incredible 140-116 win at home over the Suns where Jason Kidd passed Magic Johnson for 3rd all-time in assists. I can see them having a bit of a let-down after that game. It will be up to Kirilenko to slow down the incredibly athletic Josh Howard and for Ronnie Brewer to take advantage of an incredible mismatch a shooting guard any time Dallas attempts to play J.J. Barea or Jason Terry alongside Kidd. Dirk Nowitzki should be able to score easily around Carlos Boozer since the Jazz can ill-afford to move Kirilenko onto Nowitzki with Howard on the court.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
15) The San Francisco Giants are slightly favored in Vegas to win at home after winning the first game 10-6. Last year, in 6 games, the Brewers outscored the Giants by an average score of 8.17 to 3.00, and were 6-0 against the Giants. Using Bill James’ pythagorean expectation and last years’ stats the Brewers have a 90.5 percent expectation to win, but from the score of the last game the Giants have an 80 percent expectation. Yovani Gallardo has a 1-1 record against the Giants with a 7.72 ERA, though at AT&T Park Gallardo is 0-1 with an ERA of 15.00. Randy Johnson is 0-2 against the Brewers in the past three years and has a 17.17 ERA at AT&T Park against the Brewers in 3.67 innings pitched.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
April 7th, 2009 Picks
2-2-0 today. I started out picking Norway which was as close as could be expected. The United States scored 1 rock in the 9th end to tie everything up at 5-5. Norway managed 2 rocks in the 10th, however, to pull off the 7-5 win and remain undefeated in the Worlds.
My next pick was Gaziantepspro to win or draw. Galatasaray dominated the first 30 minutes of the game but Gaziantepspro gained the momentum and controlled the action from there on out. Unfortunately for them Milan Baros scored on an incredible bicycle kick in the 10' minute and they were unable to answer. Gaziantepspro had numerous opportunities to score close to the net but every one of their shots was saved by Martin De Sanctis. Not to take away from De Sanctis’ performance but most of Gaziantep’s shots were directed directly at his chest. Gaziantepspro kept trying to force the ball in to a man further up the field but surrounded by defenders and lost out on many more scoring opportunities. Galatasaray turned those mistakes into ferocious counter attacks, but with the one goal lead they tended to be less aggressive or they could have easily won 3-0. As it went Gaziantepspro had the better opportunities and were putting pressure on to the very last, but could not find the net as they went down at home 1-0.
My third pick was the Yankees to defeat the Orioles. C.C. Sabathia may be a tremendous pitcher with a tremendous salaray but tonight he played like a rookie fresh out of the minors as he gave up 6 runs in 4.67 innings with 5 walks and zero strikeouts. The kicker was when the Orioles loaded up the bases and Sabathia walked the next batter, prompting him to be pulled. The Yankees did well with their middle relief as they rallied back to within 1 at 6-5 but the Orioles had the answer when they blasted in four more runs in the top of the 8th. The Yankees never could find that 6th run and wound up losing 10-5.
My final pick was North Carolina. The Tar Heels simply dominated in the first half as they jumped out to a 22-7 lead. It wasn’t until mid-way through the second half that Michigan State made the basket that gave them more field goals than turnovers. By the end of the game the Spartans had committed 21 turnovers while making 22 field goals. North Carolina handled the pressure well with 7 turnovers. Michigan State did out rebound the Tar Heels 40 to 33 but, perhaps not unsurprisingly, it was the North Carolina defense which was the better of the day, holding Michigan State to 40% shooting on field goals and 30% from the three point line. North Carolina became the 2009 NCAA Champions, downing the Spartans 89 to 72. Ty Lawson tied the NCAA tournament record for steals in a single game with 8 and North Carolina set a new record for points in a half with 55 in the first. So on to the picks already, yeesh.
1) Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox – Chicago
2) FC Porto @ Manchester United – 2 goals or fewer
3) Arsenal @ Villarreal – Villarreal
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox – Boston
5) Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors – Toronto
6) Philadelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Bobcats – Charlotte
7) New Orleans Hornets @ Miami Heat – Miami
8) Chicago Blackhawks @ Nashville Predators - Nashville
9) Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros – Houston
10) Orlando Magic @ Houston Rockets – Houston
11) Angel McCoughtry points vs. Connecticutt win margin – McCoughtry points
12) St. Louis Blues @ Phoenix Coyotes – Phoenix
13) Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels – Oakland
Analysis
2) Manchester United is coming off a 3-2 win at Old Trafford over Aston Villa where Federico Macheda put in an injury time game winner in his first Barclay’s Premiere League start. Manchester United were without Nemanja Vidic and Fernando Rio who, as the Dude would say, really tie the defense together. Manchester United were in poor form but it is safe to say they are still one of the best defensive squads in the world. FC Porto is a greater offensive threat than Villa but I would expect Manchester United to bring their A-game to Old Trafford this time around. Vidic returns for the Red Devils but Rio remains out while injured. Manchester United should be very concerned about conceding any away goals to FC Porto. FC Porto’s four away matches have all gone over, but in all but one their opponents were held under 3 goals. Arsenal defeated them 4-0 at the Emirates Stadium. One fun bit of information: FC Porto start a Brazilian striker named Hulk. The current odds on this are over 2.5 goals at 47.8% and under 2.5 goals at 52.2%.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
5) Atlanta is a 1.5 point favorite on the road here where they have a record of 14-24 on the season and have lost their last 5. The Raptors are 7-3 in their last 10 games including a 99-95 win over the Magic in Orlando. Atlanta is 4-6 in their last 10 games but those six losses have come to Boston, Cleveland, San Antonio, Philadelphia, and Orlando. Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon will be key for Toronto in this game. Calderon can only beat himself and Mike Bibby has little chance of slowing him down. Bargnani has averaged 19.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.3 three pointers, and 2.0 blocks while shooting 48 percent from the field in his past three games. Toronto has already beaten Atlanta once at home, 93-88
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) The Charlotte Bobcats are 4.5 point favorites in this game. They are 2-1 against the Sixers this season, winning a game at home and in Philadelphia already. Thaddeus Young is out for Philadelphia and Raja Bell is out for Charlotte. The Bobcats have one of the best rookies in the league backing up Bell, D.J. Augustin. The Sixers have Reggie Evans, Marreese Speights, and Donyell Marshell backing up Young. I think the Sixers will bounce back after losing on the road to New Jersey 96-67, but not by enough to defeat the Bobcats.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
8) Nashville is 5-2-3 in their last 10 games and Chicago is 6-2-2. The Predators are 3-1-1 at home recently and have won their last 3 in Nashville. The Blackhawks are 1-3-1 on the road, but did win their last road game, a 1-0 overtime win against Columbus. This season Chicago is 2-2-1 against Nashville and are 0-2-0 against the Predators in Nashville. Huet was the goalie for Chicago in all 3 losses and Khabibulin started in both wins. Khabibulin is starting tonight for the Blackhawks and Pekka Rinne should be starting for Nashville. Khabibulin’s record against Nashville in the past 3 seasons is 5-5-2. The odds on this game have Nashville as the barest of favorites. I like Nashville’s recent home performance against Chicago on the road.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
9) Wandy Rodriguez and Ryan Dempster are both solid pitchers for their respective teams. Over the past 3 years Rodriguez has an ERA of 3.10 in April with a 5-3 record. His ERA against Chicago in that time is 3.75 with a 3-1 record. Rodriguez has pitched in two games against the Cubs in Minute Maid Park in the past two years and his combined ERA is 1.27. Dempster has an ERA of 2.59 in April the past 3 years with a record of 4-1. His ERA against the Astros over those 3 years is a formidable 2.61, yet his record against Houston is only 1-4 in that time. In the last 8 games Dempster pitched any number of innings at Houston Dempster’s ERA is 2.44 and the Cubs have a 5-3 record.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
12) Phoenix is 6-3-1 in their last 10 games and 4-0-1 at home recently. They’ve won their last 4 home games including a 5-1 beating of Vancouver. They are 5-0-1 at home in their last 6, with the additional victory being a 4-3 win in regulation over San Jose. The Blues are 6-2-2 in their last 10 and 3-1-1 on the road, though they lost their last road game in overtime 5-4 to Dallas. This season St. Louis is is 3-0-0 against Phoenix, but had to come back from a 1 goal deficit in two of those games. Bryzgalov is expected to return to the net in place of Al Montoya and Mason will be starting for St. Louis. Phoenix are +125 underdogs and the Blues are -145 favorites.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
13) Moseley is 1-1 against Oakland in his career with an ERA of 7.57. Cahill is a rookie and is playing in the major leagues after pitching for a AA team. Los Angeles is a slight favorite but Oakland should win if Cahill is capable of retiring the Angels batters early and often since Oakland is likely to score a few runs off of Moseley.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
My next pick was Gaziantepspro to win or draw. Galatasaray dominated the first 30 minutes of the game but Gaziantepspro gained the momentum and controlled the action from there on out. Unfortunately for them Milan Baros scored on an incredible bicycle kick in the 10' minute and they were unable to answer. Gaziantepspro had numerous opportunities to score close to the net but every one of their shots was saved by Martin De Sanctis. Not to take away from De Sanctis’ performance but most of Gaziantep’s shots were directed directly at his chest. Gaziantepspro kept trying to force the ball in to a man further up the field but surrounded by defenders and lost out on many more scoring opportunities. Galatasaray turned those mistakes into ferocious counter attacks, but with the one goal lead they tended to be less aggressive or they could have easily won 3-0. As it went Gaziantepspro had the better opportunities and were putting pressure on to the very last, but could not find the net as they went down at home 1-0.
My third pick was the Yankees to defeat the Orioles. C.C. Sabathia may be a tremendous pitcher with a tremendous salaray but tonight he played like a rookie fresh out of the minors as he gave up 6 runs in 4.67 innings with 5 walks and zero strikeouts. The kicker was when the Orioles loaded up the bases and Sabathia walked the next batter, prompting him to be pulled. The Yankees did well with their middle relief as they rallied back to within 1 at 6-5 but the Orioles had the answer when they blasted in four more runs in the top of the 8th. The Yankees never could find that 6th run and wound up losing 10-5.
My final pick was North Carolina. The Tar Heels simply dominated in the first half as they jumped out to a 22-7 lead. It wasn’t until mid-way through the second half that Michigan State made the basket that gave them more field goals than turnovers. By the end of the game the Spartans had committed 21 turnovers while making 22 field goals. North Carolina handled the pressure well with 7 turnovers. Michigan State did out rebound the Tar Heels 40 to 33 but, perhaps not unsurprisingly, it was the North Carolina defense which was the better of the day, holding Michigan State to 40% shooting on field goals and 30% from the three point line. North Carolina became the 2009 NCAA Champions, downing the Spartans 89 to 72. Ty Lawson tied the NCAA tournament record for steals in a single game with 8 and North Carolina set a new record for points in a half with 55 in the first. So on to the picks already, yeesh.
1) Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox – Chicago
2) FC Porto @ Manchester United – 2 goals or fewer
3) Arsenal @ Villarreal – Villarreal
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox – Boston
5) Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors – Toronto
6) Philadelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Bobcats – Charlotte
7) New Orleans Hornets @ Miami Heat – Miami
8) Chicago Blackhawks @ Nashville Predators - Nashville
9) Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros – Houston
10) Orlando Magic @ Houston Rockets – Houston
11) Angel McCoughtry points vs. Connecticutt win margin – McCoughtry points
12) St. Louis Blues @ Phoenix Coyotes – Phoenix
13) Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels – Oakland
Analysis
2) Manchester United is coming off a 3-2 win at Old Trafford over Aston Villa where Federico Macheda put in an injury time game winner in his first Barclay’s Premiere League start. Manchester United were without Nemanja Vidic and Fernando Rio who, as the Dude would say, really tie the defense together. Manchester United were in poor form but it is safe to say they are still one of the best defensive squads in the world. FC Porto is a greater offensive threat than Villa but I would expect Manchester United to bring their A-game to Old Trafford this time around. Vidic returns for the Red Devils but Rio remains out while injured. Manchester United should be very concerned about conceding any away goals to FC Porto. FC Porto’s four away matches have all gone over, but in all but one their opponents were held under 3 goals. Arsenal defeated them 4-0 at the Emirates Stadium. One fun bit of information: FC Porto start a Brazilian striker named Hulk. The current odds on this are over 2.5 goals at 47.8% and under 2.5 goals at 52.2%.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
5) Atlanta is a 1.5 point favorite on the road here where they have a record of 14-24 on the season and have lost their last 5. The Raptors are 7-3 in their last 10 games including a 99-95 win over the Magic in Orlando. Atlanta is 4-6 in their last 10 games but those six losses have come to Boston, Cleveland, San Antonio, Philadelphia, and Orlando. Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon will be key for Toronto in this game. Calderon can only beat himself and Mike Bibby has little chance of slowing him down. Bargnani has averaged 19.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.3 three pointers, and 2.0 blocks while shooting 48 percent from the field in his past three games. Toronto has already beaten Atlanta once at home, 93-88
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) The Charlotte Bobcats are 4.5 point favorites in this game. They are 2-1 against the Sixers this season, winning a game at home and in Philadelphia already. Thaddeus Young is out for Philadelphia and Raja Bell is out for Charlotte. The Bobcats have one of the best rookies in the league backing up Bell, D.J. Augustin. The Sixers have Reggie Evans, Marreese Speights, and Donyell Marshell backing up Young. I think the Sixers will bounce back after losing on the road to New Jersey 96-67, but not by enough to defeat the Bobcats.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
8) Nashville is 5-2-3 in their last 10 games and Chicago is 6-2-2. The Predators are 3-1-1 at home recently and have won their last 3 in Nashville. The Blackhawks are 1-3-1 on the road, but did win their last road game, a 1-0 overtime win against Columbus. This season Chicago is 2-2-1 against Nashville and are 0-2-0 against the Predators in Nashville. Huet was the goalie for Chicago in all 3 losses and Khabibulin started in both wins. Khabibulin is starting tonight for the Blackhawks and Pekka Rinne should be starting for Nashville. Khabibulin’s record against Nashville in the past 3 seasons is 5-5-2. The odds on this game have Nashville as the barest of favorites. I like Nashville’s recent home performance against Chicago on the road.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
9) Wandy Rodriguez and Ryan Dempster are both solid pitchers for their respective teams. Over the past 3 years Rodriguez has an ERA of 3.10 in April with a 5-3 record. His ERA against Chicago in that time is 3.75 with a 3-1 record. Rodriguez has pitched in two games against the Cubs in Minute Maid Park in the past two years and his combined ERA is 1.27. Dempster has an ERA of 2.59 in April the past 3 years with a record of 4-1. His ERA against the Astros over those 3 years is a formidable 2.61, yet his record against Houston is only 1-4 in that time. In the last 8 games Dempster pitched any number of innings at Houston Dempster’s ERA is 2.44 and the Cubs have a 5-3 record.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
12) Phoenix is 6-3-1 in their last 10 games and 4-0-1 at home recently. They’ve won their last 4 home games including a 5-1 beating of Vancouver. They are 5-0-1 at home in their last 6, with the additional victory being a 4-3 win in regulation over San Jose. The Blues are 6-2-2 in their last 10 and 3-1-1 on the road, though they lost their last road game in overtime 5-4 to Dallas. This season St. Louis is is 3-0-0 against Phoenix, but had to come back from a 1 goal deficit in two of those games. Bryzgalov is expected to return to the net in place of Al Montoya and Mason will be starting for St. Louis. Phoenix are +125 underdogs and the Blues are -145 favorites.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
13) Moseley is 1-1 against Oakland in his career with an ERA of 7.57. Cahill is a rookie and is playing in the major leagues after pitching for a AA team. Los Angeles is a slight favorite but Oakland should win if Cahill is capable of retiring the Angels batters early and often since Oakland is likely to score a few runs off of Moseley.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
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