click it
1-3-0 on a day that could have easily been 3-1-0. My first pick was Switzerland rather than Everton. The Germans were ahead 7-5 after 8 ends but the Swiss pulled off an amazing 4-0 9th end to take a 9-7 lead. The Germans tied things up in the 10th to force an 11th and won the final end 1-0 and 10-9 overall. My second pick was Tony Parker points and assists. It was nice to see both players in the prop have great starts with LeBron going for 18 points in the first quarter and Parker netting 14 points and 1 assist. LeBron and the Cavaliers dominated in the game, however, and James ended up with 38 points on 14 for 21 shooting from the field and 8 for 8 from the line. Parker finished with 24 points but only 4 assists.
My third pick was Dallas. It was a special day for the Mavericks as Jason Kidd passed Magic Johnson for third all-time in assists in the second quarter. He picked up his 16th assist in the first half when he inbounded the ball with just under 2 seconds left to Josh Howard who promptly made a 71 foot three pointer! The Mavericks were playing alright defense and getting every bounce as they shot 60% from the field for the entire game. Final score, Dallas 140, Phoenix 116.
My final pick was Oklahoma, which was against what I was thinking when I posted my blog. I figured Louisville had made it to the final four by winning on the road while Oklahoma had been winning at home. With Louisville being a 3 seed in the tournament they had beaten the top seeds on the road while Oklahoma had been beating lower seeds at home. Well, I went against my own advice. Oklahoma had a 12 point lead at the half but promptly gave it up in the second as Louisville went on a 20-4 run to take the lead. The game was close from there, but with Louisville up two and 2 seconds to go Nyeshia Stevenson missed her 8th three pointer of the night and Louisville grabbed the rebound to win the game 61-59. So on to a new series of picks to pick against!
1) Norway vs. United States – Norway
2) Galatasaray @ Gaziantepspor – Gaziantepspor win or draw
3) New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds – NY Mets
4) Cleveland Indians @ Texas Rangers – Texas
5) Total Runs Scored vs. Webb SO and BB – Total Runs Scored
6) Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox – Tampa Bay
7) New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles – NY Yankees
8) Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros – Houston
9) Detroit Red Wings @ Buffalo Sabres – Detroit
10) Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
11) Michigan State vs. North Carolina – North Carolina
Analysis
1) Norway is favored in this match with common odds being quoted as 1:2 for Norway and 6:4 for United States. A two dollar bet wins one dollar for Norway while a two dollar bet wins three dollars for U.S.A. This is an article about the Canadian team but the sidebar to the left has a tiny bit of info on the teams. Norway is 3-0 in competition so far and the United States is 2-1. Two of Norway’s victories were against teams predicted to finish in the bottom 4 and one against Finland who ‘has a good chance’ to finish in the top four. United States defeated Germany who is ‘a good bet’ to make the playoffs, and Switzerland who is predicted to finish in the middle of the pack. They lost to Scotland who are ‘an easy pick’ to make the top four. It should be a very close match and either side could win.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Gaziantepspor is 6-3-3 at home, with those losses coming against Besiktas, Istanbul Buyuksehir BSK, and Konyaspor. The match against Istanbul BSK was a game in which they played mostly reserves including a reserve goal keeper. The loss against 12th ranked Konyaspor, however, was with their starters, except for Hakan Bayraktar. Gaziantepspor have defeated or drawn the two teams above Galatasaray in the standings at home. Galatasaray is 5-3-5 on the road this season, with their best win coming against Konyaspor as well. Their other 4 victories on the road have been against some of the worst teams in the league. Galatasaray have a strong squad with 5 members from the Turkish national team, one from the Czech team, one from the Australian team, and Cassio Lincoln who plays for Brazil. When they defeated Konyaspor they had 6 of those players active, including Lincoln. When they defeated Gaziantepspor in a home match they had all 8 active. They have lost to far worse teams than Gaziantepspor with 6 of the players active, including Lincoln. Cassio Lincoln is projected to miss the match, but Harry Kewell and Milan Baros should be active. I would check the lineups before the match and if Kewell, Baros, Cetin, Sarioglu, Balta, Akmen, and Turan are all playing I would seriously consider taking Galatasaray.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
7) In this game C.C. Sabathia is pitching for the Yankees and Guthrie is pitching for the Orioles. In the past 5 years of their career Guthrie has given up nearly 3 times as many runs per at bat to the Yankees, twice as many total bases per at bat and 1.5 times as many hits per at bat.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
9) Detroit is defeated Minnesota last night at home with Chris Osgood in net. Detroit is 6-4-0 in their last 10 games and 4-1-0 on the road recently. Their record on the second night of back-to-backs is 8-5-1 with all of those games coming on the road. Chris Osgood will be playing his second game in two nights as goalie for the Red Wings. Buffalo is 4-4-2 in their last 10 games and 2-2-1 on the road. Ryan Miller will be in net for the Sabres and he is 3-1-1 since his return from injury. Most casinos have Buffalo at -105 and Detroit at -115.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
11) So Michigan State lost to North Carolina by 35 points earlier this year. They were injured, sick, and had no momentum. Michigan State is tops in the nation in rebounding margin with +9.6 per game and North Carolina is 11th with +7.0 per game. North Carolina commits fewer turnovers than Michigan State and forces more, shoots the ball better from three, the free throw line, and from the field in general. The Tar Heels actually limit their opponents to the same field goal percentage as Michigan State do. North Carolina averages more blocks, steals, and assists than Michigan State as well as coming up empty on fewer possessions overall even with their greater pace. Michigan State will enjoy a terrific home court advantage, but I do not see North Carolina becoming flustered with a loose game being called like UCONN appeared to. It will be up to North Carolina to match the Spartans’ intensity and step up their effort in getting to loose balls.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
And So It Goes....
Monday, April 6, 2009
Sunday, April 5, 2009
April 5th, 2009 Picks
Wow, a terrifically bad day where my first blog pick went through along with the last two with all 8 in between being losers. For my SFTC picks I went 1-3-0. My first pick was Sunderland win or draw. I overestimated the effect of Cole, Bellamy, Collison, and others being out for West Ham United as Stanislas and Tomkins scored their first ever Premiere League goals in the 42nd and 53rd minutes, respectively. Sunderland had plenty of opportunities with 8 on target shots but were unable to convert and West Ham defended their home ground 2-0.
My second pick was Richard Hamilton points. Hamilton got off to a rocky start as he faced double teams and traps from the Sixers every time he touched the ball as well as missing the rare open jumpers he did get. Iguodala on the other hand was on fire, hitting 7 of 11 shots and scoring 15 points in the first quarter alone. Iguodala cooled off from there scoring 2 points in the 2nd and 3rd quarters each. Hamilton eventually started to find his groove and closed the gap to 4 points early in the 4th quarter. He missed a three point attempt that would have made it 19-18 and on the next possession Detroit blocked a shot directly to Iguodala who then buried a three. From there Hamilton was quiet and Iguodala put on another scoring spree, finishing with 31 points to Hamilton’s 15.
My third pick was Connecticut. Michigan State played terrific defense and was also the superior team when it came to transition offense. They forced 16 turnovers from UCONN and only turned it over 11 times themselves. The rebounding was fairly even with Michigan State grabbing one more offensive rebound in total. Overall the Spartans played much better as a team with Connecticut trying to force shots and fouls by playing one-on-one basketball. The Huskies had a 0.5 assist-to-turnover ratio for the game while the Spartans assisted on over 50% of their field goals. Michigan State pulled away at the end and sent themselves into the championship game, 82-73.
My final pick was North Carolina. Villanova tried to play a tough physical style of basketball but North Carolina was able to match it. When Villanova did knock the ball away the Tar Heels were able to track the loose ball down. In general the Tar Heels out hustled them and played better defense. They harassed Villanova into 5 of 27 shooting from behind the arc while shooting 11 of 22 on threes themselves. North Carolina shot only 40% from the field but held Villanova to 33% shooting for the game. In the end North Carolina was too strong as they won by 14 points, 83 to 69. So on to the picks, for now….
1) Germany vs. Switzerland – Switzerland
2) Wigan Athletic @ Everton – Everton win
3) Tony Parker vs. LeBron James – Parker ast. + pts.
4) Norm Duke vs. Any Other Bowler – Norm Duke
5) Kyle Busch vs. Jimmie Johnson – Johnson
6) Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks – Dallas
7) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Florida Panthers – Pittsburgh
8) Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder – Oklahoma City
9) Women’s NCB: Louisville vs. Oklahoma – Louisville
10) San Jose Sharks @ Anaheim Ducks – Anaheim
11) Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies – Philadelphia
12) C. Jones and B. McCann vs. C. Utley and J. Rollins – Utley and Rollins record more total bases
13) Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings – Sacramento
Analysis
2) There are a few injury concerns in this match, though the most notable absence for Wigan Athletic is Amr Zaki who is not injured per se, but has simply neglected to return to the club after playing for the Egyptian national team. Wigan will also be missing Jason Koumas but should have everyone else available. Everton is waiting on a late fitness test to determine if Tim Cahill will play and are still waiting for Tim Howard to return from the United States where he recently tended the net against Trinidad & Tobago. Everton are overwhelming favorites to win at 55 percent odds. The best team Everton has defeated outright at home is 9th place Fulham, while the best team Wigan Athletic has won or drawn against on the road is 11th place Tottenham Hotspur. It would be best to see if Cahill and Howard are playing for Everton, if they are Everton is a very good pick and if they are not it is really a toss-up.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) The last time Cleveland and San Antonio played the game was in San Antonio and Parker had 6 assists and 11 points on 3 of 16 shooting. LeBron had 30 points on 12 of 23 shooting. LeBron has had 31 and 26 points in Cleveland’s last two losses to Washington and Orlando on the road and had no more than 25 in their last 4 wins at home. In March the most LeBron scored in a home win was 43 against Orlando and the least being 14 points in a win against Miami. In San Antonio’s last 5 road games Parker has put up 36, 35, 52, 27, and 42 points plus assists.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
5) This race is scheduled to last about 4 hours and it is a 334 lap race. In 12 years on this track Chevrolet’s have won the Sprint Cup race 3 times and Toyota’s have never won. Johnson is driving a Chevrolet and Busch is driving a Toyota. Johnson placed higher than Busch in this race in '08, ’06, and ’05 with Busch placing 37th to 38th for Johnson in ’07. Anybody could be involved in a crash, however, which would obviously put them at a disadvantage.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) The Phoenix Suns need to win this game to keep themselves close in the playoff race; if they win they’re 2 games back from Dallas with 5 games to go and if they lose they’re 4 games back and all but eliminated. Dallas must have the same thing on their minds. The game is in Dallas where the Mavericks have won 9 of their last 10. Phoenix is 2-8 on the road in their last 10 with the two victories coming against the Clippers and Golden State. Nash and Nowitzki always seem to bring their A-game when they play one another so it should be a great game but Dallas should prevail in the end.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
7) Florida is 4-4-2 in their last 10 games and Pittsburgh is 6-1-3. Both teams are coming off losses and each team are on a 1 game losing streak, at home for Florida and on the road for Pittsburgh. Florida is 2-2-1 at home recently and Pittsburgh is 3-0-2 on the road with the two overtime losses coming against Carolina and Columbus. Florida’s home losses have also come against Carolina and Columbus but they also lost recently to Atlanta. Florida is a -120 favorite and the odds are even on Pittsburgh. Head-to-head this season Florida is 1-1-1 against the Penguins with the win coming in Pittsburgh and the regulation loss being at home in Florida. Vokoun is projected to be in net for the Panthers and Fleury for the Penguins.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
10) San Jose lost at home to Anaheim last night, 5-2. It’s very difficult for any team to win both games in a home-and-away series. It takes a team like Boston or say San Jose to be capable of it. Anaheim has been on a tear lately, however, winning 9 of their last 10 games, while San Jose is 6-3-1 in their last 10 and 2-2-1 on the road recently. San Jose did win their last two road games, against Calgary and Edmonton. Anaheim is on a four game winning streak. Currently it is Boucher and Hiller projected to be in net for San Jose and Anaheim, respectively. Anaheim is a -120 favorite and San Jose has even odds. San Jose should win this game hands down, but with as well as Anaheim has been playing the past few weeks I think they can win in overtime here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
13) Sacramento lost on the road to Golden State last wee 143-141 in overtime. Sacramento is 3-7 at home in their past 10 and Golden State is 1-9. Sacramento defeated Denver and Phoenix in two of those 3 home wins while Golden State’s road win was against Minnesota. It looks as if Monta Ellis, Stephen Jackson, and Corey Maggette will miss this game as well, though it did not stop the Warriors from handling Chris Paul and the Hornets. Kevin Martin has been playing on a bum ankle all season but the latest reports from the Sacramento Bee have him playing tonight against the Warriors.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
My second pick was Richard Hamilton points. Hamilton got off to a rocky start as he faced double teams and traps from the Sixers every time he touched the ball as well as missing the rare open jumpers he did get. Iguodala on the other hand was on fire, hitting 7 of 11 shots and scoring 15 points in the first quarter alone. Iguodala cooled off from there scoring 2 points in the 2nd and 3rd quarters each. Hamilton eventually started to find his groove and closed the gap to 4 points early in the 4th quarter. He missed a three point attempt that would have made it 19-18 and on the next possession Detroit blocked a shot directly to Iguodala who then buried a three. From there Hamilton was quiet and Iguodala put on another scoring spree, finishing with 31 points to Hamilton’s 15.
My third pick was Connecticut. Michigan State played terrific defense and was also the superior team when it came to transition offense. They forced 16 turnovers from UCONN and only turned it over 11 times themselves. The rebounding was fairly even with Michigan State grabbing one more offensive rebound in total. Overall the Spartans played much better as a team with Connecticut trying to force shots and fouls by playing one-on-one basketball. The Huskies had a 0.5 assist-to-turnover ratio for the game while the Spartans assisted on over 50% of their field goals. Michigan State pulled away at the end and sent themselves into the championship game, 82-73.
My final pick was North Carolina. Villanova tried to play a tough physical style of basketball but North Carolina was able to match it. When Villanova did knock the ball away the Tar Heels were able to track the loose ball down. In general the Tar Heels out hustled them and played better defense. They harassed Villanova into 5 of 27 shooting from behind the arc while shooting 11 of 22 on threes themselves. North Carolina shot only 40% from the field but held Villanova to 33% shooting for the game. In the end North Carolina was too strong as they won by 14 points, 83 to 69. So on to the picks, for now….
1) Germany vs. Switzerland – Switzerland
2) Wigan Athletic @ Everton – Everton win
3) Tony Parker vs. LeBron James – Parker ast. + pts.
4) Norm Duke vs. Any Other Bowler – Norm Duke
5) Kyle Busch vs. Jimmie Johnson – Johnson
6) Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks – Dallas
7) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Florida Panthers – Pittsburgh
8) Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder – Oklahoma City
9) Women’s NCB: Louisville vs. Oklahoma – Louisville
10) San Jose Sharks @ Anaheim Ducks – Anaheim
11) Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies – Philadelphia
12) C. Jones and B. McCann vs. C. Utley and J. Rollins – Utley and Rollins record more total bases
13) Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings – Sacramento
Analysis
2) There are a few injury concerns in this match, though the most notable absence for Wigan Athletic is Amr Zaki who is not injured per se, but has simply neglected to return to the club after playing for the Egyptian national team. Wigan will also be missing Jason Koumas but should have everyone else available. Everton is waiting on a late fitness test to determine if Tim Cahill will play and are still waiting for Tim Howard to return from the United States where he recently tended the net against Trinidad & Tobago. Everton are overwhelming favorites to win at 55 percent odds. The best team Everton has defeated outright at home is 9th place Fulham, while the best team Wigan Athletic has won or drawn against on the road is 11th place Tottenham Hotspur. It would be best to see if Cahill and Howard are playing for Everton, if they are Everton is a very good pick and if they are not it is really a toss-up.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) The last time Cleveland and San Antonio played the game was in San Antonio and Parker had 6 assists and 11 points on 3 of 16 shooting. LeBron had 30 points on 12 of 23 shooting. LeBron has had 31 and 26 points in Cleveland’s last two losses to Washington and Orlando on the road and had no more than 25 in their last 4 wins at home. In March the most LeBron scored in a home win was 43 against Orlando and the least being 14 points in a win against Miami. In San Antonio’s last 5 road games Parker has put up 36, 35, 52, 27, and 42 points plus assists.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
5) This race is scheduled to last about 4 hours and it is a 334 lap race. In 12 years on this track Chevrolet’s have won the Sprint Cup race 3 times and Toyota’s have never won. Johnson is driving a Chevrolet and Busch is driving a Toyota. Johnson placed higher than Busch in this race in '08, ’06, and ’05 with Busch placing 37th to 38th for Johnson in ’07. Anybody could be involved in a crash, however, which would obviously put them at a disadvantage.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
6) The Phoenix Suns need to win this game to keep themselves close in the playoff race; if they win they’re 2 games back from Dallas with 5 games to go and if they lose they’re 4 games back and all but eliminated. Dallas must have the same thing on their minds. The game is in Dallas where the Mavericks have won 9 of their last 10. Phoenix is 2-8 on the road in their last 10 with the two victories coming against the Clippers and Golden State. Nash and Nowitzki always seem to bring their A-game when they play one another so it should be a great game but Dallas should prevail in the end.
Confidence: W5 streak or less
7) Florida is 4-4-2 in their last 10 games and Pittsburgh is 6-1-3. Both teams are coming off losses and each team are on a 1 game losing streak, at home for Florida and on the road for Pittsburgh. Florida is 2-2-1 at home recently and Pittsburgh is 3-0-2 on the road with the two overtime losses coming against Carolina and Columbus. Florida’s home losses have also come against Carolina and Columbus but they also lost recently to Atlanta. Florida is a -120 favorite and the odds are even on Pittsburgh. Head-to-head this season Florida is 1-1-1 against the Penguins with the win coming in Pittsburgh and the regulation loss being at home in Florida. Vokoun is projected to be in net for the Panthers and Fleury for the Penguins.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
10) San Jose lost at home to Anaheim last night, 5-2. It’s very difficult for any team to win both games in a home-and-away series. It takes a team like Boston or say San Jose to be capable of it. Anaheim has been on a tear lately, however, winning 9 of their last 10 games, while San Jose is 6-3-1 in their last 10 and 2-2-1 on the road recently. San Jose did win their last two road games, against Calgary and Edmonton. Anaheim is on a four game winning streak. Currently it is Boucher and Hiller projected to be in net for San Jose and Anaheim, respectively. Anaheim is a -120 favorite and San Jose has even odds. San Jose should win this game hands down, but with as well as Anaheim has been playing the past few weeks I think they can win in overtime here.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
13) Sacramento lost on the road to Golden State last wee 143-141 in overtime. Sacramento is 3-7 at home in their past 10 and Golden State is 1-9. Sacramento defeated Denver and Phoenix in two of those 3 home wins while Golden State’s road win was against Minnesota. It looks as if Monta Ellis, Stephen Jackson, and Corey Maggette will miss this game as well, though it did not stop the Warriors from handling Chris Paul and the Hornets. Kevin Martin has been playing on a bum ankle all season but the latest reports from the Sacramento Bee have him playing tonight against the Warriors.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
Saturday, April 4, 2009
April 4th, 2009 Picks
Ehhh… not a good day as I went 1-2-0. I started off with Schalke 04 who went up 1-0 just before time ran out in the first half with a header off a corner kick. Schalke were lucky to have the lead, not just because they scored right as the half ended, but also because Arminia Bielefeld missed on some great opportunities. Both sides looked strong again in the second half but Arminia Bielefeld missed some close shots and it was Kevin Kuranyi who scored a second for Schalke right as the second half ended. Schalke 04 had two additional scores waved off for offsides calls, one of which was questionable. Schalke 04 won the match 2-0.
My next pick was the Washington Capitals. They drew first blood with a power play goal by Ovechkin but Buffalo evened things up a few minutes later. A minute later MacArthur had a pass accidentally knocked into the goal by the Capitals’ Kozlov giving Buffalo the 2-1 lead. Washington continued to play strong on power plays and scored two goals 9 seconds apart in the second period to go up 3-2. Washington had another 5 on 3 situation halfway through the second period but failed to increase their lead. Derek Roy converted a power play for the Sabers to even it at 3-3, but the Capitals got it right back less than a minute later to go into the third period up 4-3. Afinogenov tied the game in the third period and Washington was held scoreless to put the game into overtime where Jason Pominville slipped one between the legs of Simeon Varlamov less than two minutes in to give the Sabres the 5-4 victory.
My final pick of the day was Kobe Bryants’ points. It was a disappointing game to watch as Bryant took only 11 shots despite playing 38 minutes. Bryant has never taken fewer than 11 shots in a game this season and the two times he has taken that many before tonight were games in which he played fewer than 30 minutes. He was 7 of 11 from the field. Yao Ming had an alright game, totaling 10 rebounds and 16 points. He had 19 points and rebounds by the half so it was a quiet 3rd and 4th quarters from the giant but it was enough. Once Yao Ming was pulled from the game down the stretch the Lakers exploited the mismatch between Pau Gasol and Luis Scola and Kobe never took another shot. So on to the picks, eh?
1) Justin Leonard vs. Phil Mickelson – Leonard has a lower 2nd round score
2) Sunderland @ West Ham United – Sunderland win or draw
3) Germany vs. United States – Germany
4) Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards – Edwards has a better finishing position
5) Richard Hamilton vs. Andre Iguodala – Hamilton pts.
6) Michigan State vs. Connecticut – Connecticut
7) Orlando Magic @ Atlanta Hawks – Atlanta
8) New Jersey Devils @ Buffalo Sabres – Buffalo
9) St. Louis Blues @ Dallas Stars – St. Louis
10) Villanova vs. North Carolina – North Carolina
11) Phoenix Coyotes @ Los Angeles Kings – Los Angeles
Analysis
2) Sunderland will be returning midfielder Kieran Richardson for today’s match who was conspicuously missing in their recent losses to Wigan Athletic and Manchester City. West Ham United will be missing strikers Carlton Cole and Jack Collison who starred in their recent victories over Wigan and Man City. Since Collison and Cole have been out West Ham United have struggled to score playing to a 0-0 draw at home against league worst West Bromwich Albion and a 1-1 draw away at Blackburn Rovers. Fortunately for the Hammers they will be returning defenders Upson and Collins. West Ham United are 7-2-6 (W-D-L) at home this season and Sunderland are 3-5-7 in away matches. Sunderland are a long shot to win but West Ham United may have trouble scoring themselves. A 0-0 or 1-1 draw seem likely, but a 1-0 or 2-0 win for West Ham are just as likely.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
5) With Allen Iverson out Rip Hamilton should be seeing plenty of minutes on the court. Hamilton is difficult to stop for any defender and the Sixers do not have a defensive ace up their sleeve. The Pistons, however, can put Tayshaun Prince or Walter Hermann on Iguodala. Both players are capable scorers but Hamilton is more likely to take over 20 shots while Iguodala rarely does.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) Michigan State is playing a scant 40 miles from their home campus so they should hear the crowd roaring for them this afternoon. Goran Suton is a good outside shooter so he will be able to move Hasheem Thabeet out from under the basket. UCONN has other good shot blockers, most notably Stanley Robinson, and would still average more blocks than most schools even if Thabeet had 0.0 per game. Michigan State has done well with Suton scoring from the outside but I think Thabeet will limit him to a passing role today. With A.J. Price, Kemba Walker, and Jeff Adrien able to penetrate I think Michigan State will eventually become overwhelmed. UCONN is also a strong rebounding team, and when I say strong I mean they pull down rebounds strongly. Michigan State is the best in the nation at blocking out and going to the ball to collect boards, but if the Huskies get a hand on the ball they’re more likely to end up with the rebound. I think neither team will have a strong advantage on the boards.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) Both the Devils and the Sabres won in overtime last night so rest is not an issue for one team over the other. Buffalo is 2-1-0 against the Devils this season. New Jersey is 3-6-1 in their past 10 games but are 0-4-1 in their past 5 road games. Buffalo is only 5-3-2 in their past 10, but have done better at home winning their last two and going 3-1-1 there recently. Martin Brodeur and Ryan Miller are expected to start for New Jersey and Buffalo, respectively. Buffalo is a -130 favorite and New Jersey is a +110 underdog.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
9) St. Louis is 3-0-0 against Dallas this year, but haven’t swept a season series with the Stars since the two franchises entered the NHL in 1967. St. Louis is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games and 3-2-0 away from home recently. Dallas is 2-6-2 overall and 1-3-1 at home recently. Even worse, they have lost 4 home games in a row. Marty Turco is dealing with an injury and Stephan Tobias is likely to start for the Stars tonight while Mason will make the start for the Blues.
UPDATE: Tobias will be the backup goalie and Dallas will be giving Matt Climie his first NHL start today.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
10) North Carolina is a -330 to -400 favorite in the Vegas casinos this morning. That means you would make $25 on a $100 bet. Those odds don’t come around too often. I’m surprised they’re favored so heavily because Villanova really isn’t a bad team. Dwayne Anderson, Dante Cunningham, and Scottie Reynolds are terrific players and I can see North Carolina having a hard time stopping them on offense. North Carolina’s Ty Lawson is healthy, however, and adding him to the 1-2-3 punch of Hansbrough, Ellington, and Green may well be too much for the Wildcats.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
11) Los Angeles is at home and is a -140 favorite while Phoenix is a +120 underdog. Phoenix rallied in the third period two nights ago by scoring two goals and winning 2-1. It’s very difficult for a team to win both games in a home-and-away series and Phoenix is not a dominant team in the NHL. Los Angeles is 2-6-2 in their past 10 games and are on a 3 game losing streak. They are 3-2-0 at home recently, but have lost their last two there. Phoenix is on a three game winning streak and are 6-3-1 in their past 10, but are only 1-3-1 on the road recently. Al Montoya is expected to start again for the Coyotes and Jonathon Quick for the Kings.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
My next pick was the Washington Capitals. They drew first blood with a power play goal by Ovechkin but Buffalo evened things up a few minutes later. A minute later MacArthur had a pass accidentally knocked into the goal by the Capitals’ Kozlov giving Buffalo the 2-1 lead. Washington continued to play strong on power plays and scored two goals 9 seconds apart in the second period to go up 3-2. Washington had another 5 on 3 situation halfway through the second period but failed to increase their lead. Derek Roy converted a power play for the Sabers to even it at 3-3, but the Capitals got it right back less than a minute later to go into the third period up 4-3. Afinogenov tied the game in the third period and Washington was held scoreless to put the game into overtime where Jason Pominville slipped one between the legs of Simeon Varlamov less than two minutes in to give the Sabres the 5-4 victory.
My final pick of the day was Kobe Bryants’ points. It was a disappointing game to watch as Bryant took only 11 shots despite playing 38 minutes. Bryant has never taken fewer than 11 shots in a game this season and the two times he has taken that many before tonight were games in which he played fewer than 30 minutes. He was 7 of 11 from the field. Yao Ming had an alright game, totaling 10 rebounds and 16 points. He had 19 points and rebounds by the half so it was a quiet 3rd and 4th quarters from the giant but it was enough. Once Yao Ming was pulled from the game down the stretch the Lakers exploited the mismatch between Pau Gasol and Luis Scola and Kobe never took another shot. So on to the picks, eh?
1) Justin Leonard vs. Phil Mickelson – Leonard has a lower 2nd round score
2) Sunderland @ West Ham United – Sunderland win or draw
3) Germany vs. United States – Germany
4) Kyle Busch vs. Carl Edwards – Edwards has a better finishing position
5) Richard Hamilton vs. Andre Iguodala – Hamilton pts.
6) Michigan State vs. Connecticut – Connecticut
7) Orlando Magic @ Atlanta Hawks – Atlanta
8) New Jersey Devils @ Buffalo Sabres – Buffalo
9) St. Louis Blues @ Dallas Stars – St. Louis
10) Villanova vs. North Carolina – North Carolina
11) Phoenix Coyotes @ Los Angeles Kings – Los Angeles
Analysis
2) Sunderland will be returning midfielder Kieran Richardson for today’s match who was conspicuously missing in their recent losses to Wigan Athletic and Manchester City. West Ham United will be missing strikers Carlton Cole and Jack Collison who starred in their recent victories over Wigan and Man City. Since Collison and Cole have been out West Ham United have struggled to score playing to a 0-0 draw at home against league worst West Bromwich Albion and a 1-1 draw away at Blackburn Rovers. Fortunately for the Hammers they will be returning defenders Upson and Collins. West Ham United are 7-2-6 (W-D-L) at home this season and Sunderland are 3-5-7 in away matches. Sunderland are a long shot to win but West Ham United may have trouble scoring themselves. A 0-0 or 1-1 draw seem likely, but a 1-0 or 2-0 win for West Ham are just as likely.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
5) With Allen Iverson out Rip Hamilton should be seeing plenty of minutes on the court. Hamilton is difficult to stop for any defender and the Sixers do not have a defensive ace up their sleeve. The Pistons, however, can put Tayshaun Prince or Walter Hermann on Iguodala. Both players are capable scorers but Hamilton is more likely to take over 20 shots while Iguodala rarely does.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
6) Michigan State is playing a scant 40 miles from their home campus so they should hear the crowd roaring for them this afternoon. Goran Suton is a good outside shooter so he will be able to move Hasheem Thabeet out from under the basket. UCONN has other good shot blockers, most notably Stanley Robinson, and would still average more blocks than most schools even if Thabeet had 0.0 per game. Michigan State has done well with Suton scoring from the outside but I think Thabeet will limit him to a passing role today. With A.J. Price, Kemba Walker, and Jeff Adrien able to penetrate I think Michigan State will eventually become overwhelmed. UCONN is also a strong rebounding team, and when I say strong I mean they pull down rebounds strongly. Michigan State is the best in the nation at blocking out and going to the ball to collect boards, but if the Huskies get a hand on the ball they’re more likely to end up with the rebound. I think neither team will have a strong advantage on the boards.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
8) Both the Devils and the Sabres won in overtime last night so rest is not an issue for one team over the other. Buffalo is 2-1-0 against the Devils this season. New Jersey is 3-6-1 in their past 10 games but are 0-4-1 in their past 5 road games. Buffalo is only 5-3-2 in their past 10, but have done better at home winning their last two and going 3-1-1 there recently. Martin Brodeur and Ryan Miller are expected to start for New Jersey and Buffalo, respectively. Buffalo is a -130 favorite and New Jersey is a +110 underdog.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
9) St. Louis is 3-0-0 against Dallas this year, but haven’t swept a season series with the Stars since the two franchises entered the NHL in 1967. St. Louis is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games and 3-2-0 away from home recently. Dallas is 2-6-2 overall and 1-3-1 at home recently. Even worse, they have lost 4 home games in a row. Marty Turco is dealing with an injury and Stephan Tobias is likely to start for the Stars tonight while Mason will make the start for the Blues.
UPDATE: Tobias will be the backup goalie and Dallas will be giving Matt Climie his first NHL start today.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
10) North Carolina is a -330 to -400 favorite in the Vegas casinos this morning. That means you would make $25 on a $100 bet. Those odds don’t come around too often. I’m surprised they’re favored so heavily because Villanova really isn’t a bad team. Dwayne Anderson, Dante Cunningham, and Scottie Reynolds are terrific players and I can see North Carolina having a hard time stopping them on offense. North Carolina’s Ty Lawson is healthy, however, and adding him to the 1-2-3 punch of Hansbrough, Ellington, and Green may well be too much for the Wildcats.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
11) Los Angeles is at home and is a -140 favorite while Phoenix is a +120 underdog. Phoenix rallied in the third period two nights ago by scoring two goals and winning 2-1. It’s very difficult for a team to win both games in a home-and-away series and Phoenix is not a dominant team in the NHL. Los Angeles is 2-6-2 in their past 10 games and are on a 3 game losing streak. They are 3-2-0 at home recently, but have lost their last two there. Phoenix is on a three game winning streak and are 6-3-1 in their past 10, but are only 1-3-1 on the road recently. Al Montoya is expected to start again for the Coyotes and Jonathon Quick for the Kings.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
Friday, April 3, 2009
April 3rd, 2009 Picks
Terrible day for my picks yesterday and another 1-1-0 day for me on the Streak. My first pick was the 5 goals or fewer in the Rangers/Hurricanes game. It was a risky pick with the past five games Lundqvist had started on the road for New York going over. The two teams each scored a goal in the first two periods with Cam Ward doing a fine job considering the number of shots New York was getting. Then in the third period the Hurricanes put two in the net about 30 seconds apart with under 8 minutes to go. Carolina won the game 4-2 and the under was blown away.
My next pick of the day was Denver over Utah. Utah got out to an early 11 point lead in the first quarter but had given it all back by the second. Denver went up by 11 by the half and the closest Utah got after that was 6 points. Denver ended up winning 114 to 104 thanks to the incredible performance by J.R. Smith who had 28 points off the bench and went 8 for 13 from behind the arc.
The one game that really surprised me was Real Salt Lake winning 4-1 against Columbus. I knew they were dangerous at home, but 4-1?! Obviously I had to give it up for them by adding them as a favorite team and changing my theme. RomoIsBurning and I picked up another game on arty and JAYJUDD after Phoenix defeated Los Angeles 2-1 with two goals in the third period. Al Montoya picked up his second win in his second NHL game and has a 0.50 GAA to go along with a 97.7 SV%. And now it’s time to go on to the picks.
1) Schalke 04 @ Arminia Bielefeld – Schalke 04 win
2) San Antonio Spurs @ Indiana Pacers – Indiana
3) Buffalo Sabres @ Washington Capitals – Washington
4) Calgary Flames @ Minnesota Wild – Minnesota
5) Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic – Orlando
6) New Orleans Hornets @ Golden State Warriors – New Orleans
7) Yao Ming vs. Kobe Bryant – Bryant pts.
Analysis
1) Arminia Bielefeld is 2-4-2 (W-D-L) in 2009 and 0-3-1 at home. Their lone loss came against VfL Wolfsburg who are tied for 2nd place with Bayern Munich. Their draws were against Hertha Berlin (1st), VfL Bochum (14th), and Eintracht Frankfurt (12th). Schalke 04 is 3-1-4 in 2009 and 1-0-3 on the road. Their lone win was against Eintracht Frankfurt and their three losses were against Hannover 96 (13th), VfL Bochum, and VfL Wolfsburg. Arminia Bielefeld is 15th in the tables and Schalke 04 is 8th. Schalke 04 and Arminia Bielefeld played to a 0-0 draw in a home game for Schalke 04 earlier this season, but Arminia Bielefeld are only 0-2-8 against Schalke 04 going back to 2003. The current European odds have Schalke winning at 44.9% and Arminia Bielefeld winning or drawing at 55.1%.
UPDATE: It’s rather silly, but according to the Arminia homepage the head official for the game today is from Essen which is 6 miles from Gelesenkirchen, where Schalke 04 play. Radim Kucera, a defender for Arminia, was injured in their last match against VfL Wolfsburg on March 21st and won’t play today.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Washington has opened as -170 favorites at home and Buffalo as +150 underdogs. Washington is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games and 3-1-1 at home recently. They are on a two game winning streak and have won their last three at home. Buffalo are 4-4-2 in their last 10 games and 1-3-1 on the road. They are on a one game losing streak, losing at Atlanta a couple of nights ago. Washington is 2-1-0 against Buffalo this season, winning the only previous meeting in Washington D.C.
Confidence: W8 streak or less
4) Calgary is 5-5-0 in their last 10 games and 2-3-0 on the road recently. Minnesota is 4-4-2 in their last 10 games and 2-0-3 at home. Calgary is currently on a one game winning streak after defeating Dallas 2-1 last night and Minnesota is on a one game losing streak. Minnesota is 0-3-2 against Calgary this season with both overtime losses occuring in Minnesota. One of those losses was the second game of a back-to-back for Calgary. Calgary is 2-8-1 in the second night of back-to-back games this season. Niklas Backstrom is a terrific goalie most nights and with Calgary slumping a bit lately this is Minnesota’s best and last chance at defeating Calgary this season. Calgary opened as +100 underdogs and Minnesota as -120 favorites.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
7) Over the entire season Yao Ming has been averaging 29.4 points and rebounds compared to 27.3 points for Kobe Bryant. Kobe has been in a bit of a scoring slump lately as well, scoring 22.3 points in his last 10 games and 22.8 points in his last 5 home games. He certainly broke out of it the other night, however, with 30 points in a win at Milwaukee. Yao Ming has been putting up solid numbers lately with 28.8 points and rebounds in his last 10 games and 27.0 points and rebounds in his last 5 away games. He had 20 points and 14 rebounds the other night at Phoenix in a loss. Houston and the Lakers have met three times previously this season. Kobe Bryant won the first matchup 23 to 20, lost the second 33 to 36 and won the third 37 to 22. Houston is a good defensive squad but Kobe is terrific against good defenses and if Ron Artest starts jawing with him again Kobe is likely to go off for 30-plus again.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
My next pick of the day was Denver over Utah. Utah got out to an early 11 point lead in the first quarter but had given it all back by the second. Denver went up by 11 by the half and the closest Utah got after that was 6 points. Denver ended up winning 114 to 104 thanks to the incredible performance by J.R. Smith who had 28 points off the bench and went 8 for 13 from behind the arc.
The one game that really surprised me was Real Salt Lake winning 4-1 against Columbus. I knew they were dangerous at home, but 4-1?! Obviously I had to give it up for them by adding them as a favorite team and changing my theme. RomoIsBurning and I picked up another game on arty and JAYJUDD after Phoenix defeated Los Angeles 2-1 with two goals in the third period. Al Montoya picked up his second win in his second NHL game and has a 0.50 GAA to go along with a 97.7 SV%. And now it’s time to go on to the picks.
1) Schalke 04 @ Arminia Bielefeld – Schalke 04 win
2) San Antonio Spurs @ Indiana Pacers – Indiana
3) Buffalo Sabres @ Washington Capitals – Washington
4) Calgary Flames @ Minnesota Wild – Minnesota
5) Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic – Orlando
6) New Orleans Hornets @ Golden State Warriors – New Orleans
7) Yao Ming vs. Kobe Bryant – Bryant pts.
Analysis
1) Arminia Bielefeld is 2-4-2 (W-D-L) in 2009 and 0-3-1 at home. Their lone loss came against VfL Wolfsburg who are tied for 2nd place with Bayern Munich. Their draws were against Hertha Berlin (1st), VfL Bochum (14th), and Eintracht Frankfurt (12th). Schalke 04 is 3-1-4 in 2009 and 1-0-3 on the road. Their lone win was against Eintracht Frankfurt and their three losses were against Hannover 96 (13th), VfL Bochum, and VfL Wolfsburg. Arminia Bielefeld is 15th in the tables and Schalke 04 is 8th. Schalke 04 and Arminia Bielefeld played to a 0-0 draw in a home game for Schalke 04 earlier this season, but Arminia Bielefeld are only 0-2-8 against Schalke 04 going back to 2003. The current European odds have Schalke winning at 44.9% and Arminia Bielefeld winning or drawing at 55.1%.
UPDATE: It’s rather silly, but according to the Arminia homepage the head official for the game today is from Essen which is 6 miles from Gelesenkirchen, where Schalke 04 play. Radim Kucera, a defender for Arminia, was injured in their last match against VfL Wolfsburg on March 21st and won’t play today.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) Washington has opened as -170 favorites at home and Buffalo as +150 underdogs. Washington is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games and 3-1-1 at home recently. They are on a two game winning streak and have won their last three at home. Buffalo are 4-4-2 in their last 10 games and 1-3-1 on the road. They are on a one game losing streak, losing at Atlanta a couple of nights ago. Washington is 2-1-0 against Buffalo this season, winning the only previous meeting in Washington D.C.
Confidence: W8 streak or less
4) Calgary is 5-5-0 in their last 10 games and 2-3-0 on the road recently. Minnesota is 4-4-2 in their last 10 games and 2-0-3 at home. Calgary is currently on a one game winning streak after defeating Dallas 2-1 last night and Minnesota is on a one game losing streak. Minnesota is 0-3-2 against Calgary this season with both overtime losses occuring in Minnesota. One of those losses was the second game of a back-to-back for Calgary. Calgary is 2-8-1 in the second night of back-to-back games this season. Niklas Backstrom is a terrific goalie most nights and with Calgary slumping a bit lately this is Minnesota’s best and last chance at defeating Calgary this season. Calgary opened as +100 underdogs and Minnesota as -120 favorites.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
7) Over the entire season Yao Ming has been averaging 29.4 points and rebounds compared to 27.3 points for Kobe Bryant. Kobe has been in a bit of a scoring slump lately as well, scoring 22.3 points in his last 10 games and 22.8 points in his last 5 home games. He certainly broke out of it the other night, however, with 30 points in a win at Milwaukee. Yao Ming has been putting up solid numbers lately with 28.8 points and rebounds in his last 10 games and 27.0 points and rebounds in his last 5 away games. He had 20 points and 14 rebounds the other night at Phoenix in a loss. Houston and the Lakers have met three times previously this season. Kobe Bryant won the first matchup 23 to 20, lost the second 33 to 36 and won the third 37 to 22. Houston is a good defensive squad but Kobe is terrific against good defenses and if Ron Artest starts jawing with him again Kobe is likely to go off for 30-plus again.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
Thursday, April 2, 2009
April 2nd, 2009 Picks
Ah, missed out on the Suns so it was a 1-1-0 day today for me. My first pick was Turkey to win or draw. Senturk scored an easy tap in on an empty net after Casillas failed to hold on to or clear a shot and Turkey went into the half up 1-0. Spain had a corner kick and Ibrahim Uzulmez blocked the resulting shot partially with his arm. Since he was inside the box it was a penalty and Xabi Alonso easily converted it to even the score at 1-1. Turkey held strong and the teams traded scoring opportunities down the stretch but just over a minute into injury time Spain lofted a long pass to Guiza who made a swift pass to Alberto Riena. Riena had plenty of space and hit a side-footed shot past Demirel to save a 2-1 victory over Turkey.
My second pick was Atlanta over Buffalo. Buffalo scored first but the Thrashers evened things up less than two minutes later. Atlanta went ahead 2-1 in the second period but two penalties on Bogosian and Exelby for roughing put Atlanta in a 3 on 5 situation and they were very fortunate to come out of it with the score only 2-2. The 3rd period saw nobody find the net so the game went into overtime. With 30 seconds left Ilya Kovalchuk scored and handed Ryan Miller and the Sabres a 3-2 loss. Atlanta won for the fourth time over Buffalo this season, all four being decided on a shootout or in overtime.
In another matchup Jozy Altidore netted a hat trick for Team USA against Trinidad & Tobago as the United States won 3-0. Altidore very nearly had 4 goals in the game but tapped a shot from a yard out over the net. So on to the new picks.
1) Davis Love III vs. Andres Romero – Love III cards a lower front 9 score
2) Ebbsfleet United @ Eastbourne Borough – Eastbourne Borough win
3) Geoff Ogilvy vs. Stuart Appleby – Appleby cards a lower 1st round score
4) Sergio Garcia vs. Henrik Stevenson – Garcia cards a lower front 9 score
5) Baylor vs. Penn State – Baylor
6) New York Rangers @ Carolina Hurricanes – 5 goals or fewer
7) LeBron James vs. Antawn Jamison – Jamison pts., reb., and ast.
8) Columbus @ Real Salt Lake – Columbus win or draw
9) Los Angeles Kings @ Phoenix Coyotes – Phoenix
10) Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets – Denver
Analysis
1) Davis Love III and Andres Romero have played in four of the same events this year and Davis Love III had a lower front 9 score in the first round three of the four times. At Doral, however, the most recent tournament they both played in, Romero was five strokes better on the front 9 in the first round. Davis Love III has a lower putting average, higher driving accuracy, and a higher percentage of greens in regulation this year but all by small amounts. Just flip a coin.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Ebbsfleet United is a really cool fan-owned team so I’d like to take them here. Unfortunately, they haven’t won a road game in 2009, losing to Grays Athletic 1-3, Woking 0-1, Salisbury City 0-1, and Kettering Town 1-2. Eastbourne Borough is 3-1-3 (W-D-L) at home in 2009. They drew against Salisbury City (#12 in the tables), lost to Burton Albion (#1), Mansfield Town (#14), and Oxford United (#8), and defeated Crawley Town (#9), Wrexham (#10), and York City (#20). Currently Eastbourne Borough are #13 in the tables and Ebbsfleet United are #19.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
5) Baylor outpaces Penn State in nearly every statistical category except rebounding margin, field goal and three point percentage defense, and assist to turnover ratio. Notre Dame is one of the worst teams in the nation in terms of empty possessions because they miss a lot of shots and don’t create more opportunities for themselves by forcing turnovers or blocking shots. Baylor shoots a higher percentage, forces turnovers, and blocks shots at a high rate. It’s really a matter of opinion if you feel they have been overachieving of late or if they were underachieving during Big 12 play in the regular season. I like Baylor’s offensive efficiency to carry the day in a fairly easy win over Penn State.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
9) Phoenix is a -120 favorite at home and the Kings are +110 underdogs. Phoenix is 5-4-1 in their last 10 games and are on a two game winning streak. L.A. is 2-6-2 and are on a two game losing streak. Phoenix is 4-0-1 at home recently, winning their last three while Los Angeles is 1-3-1 on the road having lost their most recent game. Ilya Bryzgalov should be well rested for the Coyotes and ready to play tonight. Phoenix is 2-3-0 at home on the second night of a back to back this season.
UPDATE: The Coyotes look to start Al Montoya in net tonight after he shut out the Colorado Avalanche last night. The Los Angeles Kings have been nearly as poor as the Avalanche on offense lately scoring 1.6 goals per game in their last 10.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
10) The Nuggets have opened up as only 3.5 point favorites at home. The Utah Jazz, my favorite team, have lost every single game against teams with records above .500 this season. Having watched most of those games I can say the Jazz have rarely come close to winning in these games and have only shown the barest inkling of being capable of it. This is one time I’d definitely pick against Utah.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
My second pick was Atlanta over Buffalo. Buffalo scored first but the Thrashers evened things up less than two minutes later. Atlanta went ahead 2-1 in the second period but two penalties on Bogosian and Exelby for roughing put Atlanta in a 3 on 5 situation and they were very fortunate to come out of it with the score only 2-2. The 3rd period saw nobody find the net so the game went into overtime. With 30 seconds left Ilya Kovalchuk scored and handed Ryan Miller and the Sabres a 3-2 loss. Atlanta won for the fourth time over Buffalo this season, all four being decided on a shootout or in overtime.
In another matchup Jozy Altidore netted a hat trick for Team USA against Trinidad & Tobago as the United States won 3-0. Altidore very nearly had 4 goals in the game but tapped a shot from a yard out over the net. So on to the new picks.
1) Davis Love III vs. Andres Romero – Love III cards a lower front 9 score
2) Ebbsfleet United @ Eastbourne Borough – Eastbourne Borough win
3) Geoff Ogilvy vs. Stuart Appleby – Appleby cards a lower 1st round score
4) Sergio Garcia vs. Henrik Stevenson – Garcia cards a lower front 9 score
5) Baylor vs. Penn State – Baylor
6) New York Rangers @ Carolina Hurricanes – 5 goals or fewer
7) LeBron James vs. Antawn Jamison – Jamison pts., reb., and ast.
8) Columbus @ Real Salt Lake – Columbus win or draw
9) Los Angeles Kings @ Phoenix Coyotes – Phoenix
10) Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets – Denver
Analysis
1) Davis Love III and Andres Romero have played in four of the same events this year and Davis Love III had a lower front 9 score in the first round three of the four times. At Doral, however, the most recent tournament they both played in, Romero was five strokes better on the front 9 in the first round. Davis Love III has a lower putting average, higher driving accuracy, and a higher percentage of greens in regulation this year but all by small amounts. Just flip a coin.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Ebbsfleet United is a really cool fan-owned team so I’d like to take them here. Unfortunately, they haven’t won a road game in 2009, losing to Grays Athletic 1-3, Woking 0-1, Salisbury City 0-1, and Kettering Town 1-2. Eastbourne Borough is 3-1-3 (W-D-L) at home in 2009. They drew against Salisbury City (#12 in the tables), lost to Burton Albion (#1), Mansfield Town (#14), and Oxford United (#8), and defeated Crawley Town (#9), Wrexham (#10), and York City (#20). Currently Eastbourne Borough are #13 in the tables and Ebbsfleet United are #19.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
5) Baylor outpaces Penn State in nearly every statistical category except rebounding margin, field goal and three point percentage defense, and assist to turnover ratio. Notre Dame is one of the worst teams in the nation in terms of empty possessions because they miss a lot of shots and don’t create more opportunities for themselves by forcing turnovers or blocking shots. Baylor shoots a higher percentage, forces turnovers, and blocks shots at a high rate. It’s really a matter of opinion if you feel they have been overachieving of late or if they were underachieving during Big 12 play in the regular season. I like Baylor’s offensive efficiency to carry the day in a fairly easy win over Penn State.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
9) Phoenix is a -120 favorite at home and the Kings are +110 underdogs. Phoenix is 5-4-1 in their last 10 games and are on a two game winning streak. L.A. is 2-6-2 and are on a two game losing streak. Phoenix is 4-0-1 at home recently, winning their last three while Los Angeles is 1-3-1 on the road having lost their most recent game. Ilya Bryzgalov should be well rested for the Coyotes and ready to play tonight. Phoenix is 2-3-0 at home on the second night of a back to back this season.
UPDATE: The Coyotes look to start Al Montoya in net tonight after he shut out the Colorado Avalanche last night. The Los Angeles Kings have been nearly as poor as the Avalanche on offense lately scoring 1.6 goals per game in their last 10.
Confidence: W4 streak or less
10) The Nuggets have opened up as only 3.5 point favorites at home. The Utah Jazz, my favorite team, have lost every single game against teams with records above .500 this season. Having watched most of those games I can say the Jazz have rarely come close to winning in these games and have only shown the barest inkling of being capable of it. This is one time I’d definitely pick against Utah.
Confidence: W6 streak or less
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
April 1st, 2009 Picks
A fine 2-0-0 day yesterday and I think I get to punch ESPN in the arm since it’s still March 31st here in the Mountain West. My first pick of the day was the under in the Portugal/South Africa match. Bruno Alves scored on a header off one of the first half dozen corner kicks Portugal earned in the 4th minute. The score was 1-0 going into the half and Lucas Twala scored an own goal for Portugal off another corner kick for Portugal to make it 2-0 in the 58th minute. The South African defense held for the rest of the match and never really threatened to score to leave the match with two goals total.
My second pick of the day was Montreal at home. The Canadiens scored in the first 30 seconds of the game and tallied two more goals in the second period to make it 3-0. Chicago scored first in the third period but the Canadiens answered back to make the final score Montreal 4, Chicago 1. So on to the new picks for the new round.
1) Spain @ Turkey – Turkey win or draw
2) Buffalo Sabres @ Atlanta Thrashers – Atlanta
3) Detroit Pistons @ New Jersey Nets – Detroit
4) Trinidad & Tobago @ United States – 3 goals or more
5) McDonald’s High School All-American Game: West vs. East – East
6) Phoenix Coyotes @ Colorado Avalanche – Colorado
7) Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns – Phoenix
Alright, looks like there’s still a monthly prize, the chance for a million, top 7 streaks get 10 grand at least, some T-shirt prizes and the chance to win some big money on random games. Good luck everybody!
Analysis
1) The current European odds have a victory for Spain at 45% and a win or draw for Turkey at 55%. Spain has already amassed 15 points in group play, with second place Bosnia-Herzegovina only collecting 9 points. Turkey is just behind the Bosnians with 8 points and really need a win or a draw to stay competitive with a chance to qualify for the World Cup. It is a home game for Turkey. Spain defeated Turkey 1-0 in Barcelona and defeated Belgium 2-1 in Brussels behind an 88' minute goal by David Villa after being down 0-1 early on. Spain will rest some of their players to ensure fresh legs and with their talent should not see a drop in quality. Fernando Torres should start in a 4-5-1 formation.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Buffalo is a -125 favorite and Atlanta is a +105 underdog. Buffalo is 4-5-1 in their last 10 games and Atlanta is 7-3-0. Buffalo is 1-4-0 on the road recently, losing their last road game, and Atlanta is 4-1-0 at home winning their last two. Ryan Miller is a better goalie than Johan Hedberg but Atlanta is tough at home and their offense is one of the best in the NHL.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
4) Both Trinidad & Tobago and United States have played 10 matches in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying play. United States’ matches have had an average of 3.2 goals scored and Trinidad’s matches have had an average of 2.6 goals scored. 5 of 10 of United States’ matches have gone over and 6 of 10 of Trinidad’s matches have gone over. Both previous matches between Trinidad & Tobago and United States have had 3 goals scored.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
7) Phoenix is 6-4 in their last 10 games and are currently on a 3 game slide, all on the road. Houston is 7-3 in their last 10 games and currently on a 1 game winning streak, a home game. Phoenix has won their last 5 home games and Houston lost their last road game, but won the 4 road games before that. Both teams have defeated good competition, but Houston had a tendency to win in incredibly close games while Phoenix won more comfortably. Phoenix is a 1 to 1.5 point favorite in Vegas.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
My second pick of the day was Montreal at home. The Canadiens scored in the first 30 seconds of the game and tallied two more goals in the second period to make it 3-0. Chicago scored first in the third period but the Canadiens answered back to make the final score Montreal 4, Chicago 1. So on to the new picks for the new round.
1) Spain @ Turkey – Turkey win or draw
2) Buffalo Sabres @ Atlanta Thrashers – Atlanta
3) Detroit Pistons @ New Jersey Nets – Detroit
4) Trinidad & Tobago @ United States – 3 goals or more
5) McDonald’s High School All-American Game: West vs. East – East
6) Phoenix Coyotes @ Colorado Avalanche – Colorado
7) Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns – Phoenix
Alright, looks like there’s still a monthly prize, the chance for a million, top 7 streaks get 10 grand at least, some T-shirt prizes and the chance to win some big money on random games. Good luck everybody!
Analysis
1) The current European odds have a victory for Spain at 45% and a win or draw for Turkey at 55%. Spain has already amassed 15 points in group play, with second place Bosnia-Herzegovina only collecting 9 points. Turkey is just behind the Bosnians with 8 points and really need a win or a draw to stay competitive with a chance to qualify for the World Cup. It is a home game for Turkey. Spain defeated Turkey 1-0 in Barcelona and defeated Belgium 2-1 in Brussels behind an 88' minute goal by David Villa after being down 0-1 early on. Spain will rest some of their players to ensure fresh legs and with their talent should not see a drop in quality. Fernando Torres should start in a 4-5-1 formation.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
2) Buffalo is a -125 favorite and Atlanta is a +105 underdog. Buffalo is 4-5-1 in their last 10 games and Atlanta is 7-3-0. Buffalo is 1-4-0 on the road recently, losing their last road game, and Atlanta is 4-1-0 at home winning their last two. Ryan Miller is a better goalie than Johan Hedberg but Atlanta is tough at home and their offense is one of the best in the NHL.
Confidence: W3 streak or less
4) Both Trinidad & Tobago and United States have played 10 matches in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying play. United States’ matches have had an average of 3.2 goals scored and Trinidad’s matches have had an average of 2.6 goals scored. 5 of 10 of United States’ matches have gone over and 6 of 10 of Trinidad’s matches have gone over. Both previous matches between Trinidad & Tobago and United States have had 3 goals scored.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
7) Phoenix is 6-4 in their last 10 games and are currently on a 3 game slide, all on the road. Houston is 7-3 in their last 10 games and currently on a 1 game winning streak, a home game. Phoenix has won their last 5 home games and Houston lost their last road game, but won the 4 road games before that. Both teams have defeated good competition, but Houston had a tendency to win in incredibly close games while Phoenix won more comfortably. Phoenix is a 1 to 1.5 point favorite in Vegas.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
March 31st, 2009 Picks
A nice turnaround for myself today as I went 3-0-0. My first pick was Cambridge United to win. This was a matchup of the 2nd place team in the Blue Square Premiere against the 22nd place team. Both offenses were lacking with few shots being taken. Jai Reason finally booted in a shot from the edge of the box in the 82nd minute and Cambridge United held on to defeat Woking 1-0.
My next pick was the Rangers over the Devils. The first period was scoreless, but in the 2nd the Rangers broke loose with three goals. The Devils turned up the pressure and started taking more shots but Henrik Lundqvist made saves on all 38. The Devils grew frustrated in the 3rd and were unable to make a run with at least one player in the box after the 10 minute mark. The Rangers continued their recent dominance over Brodeur and the Devils with a 3-0 victory.
My final pick of the day was Oregon State. They came out with their zone defense and jumped out to a 7-0 lead. They were up by as much as 11 in the first half but UTEP made a small run to make it 35-29 at the half. Oregon State started the second half strong as well and were up by as much as 21 before UTEP made a run again. The Miners got the deficit down to 3 with under 5 minutes to go behind the play of Randy Culpepper, Stefon Jackson, and Arnett Moultrie. Oregon State was 50% from the free throw line, but turned it around at the end to extend their lead. A couple of missed jumpers from Jackson and some more free throws from the Beavers and Oregon State pulled out the victory at home, 75-69. Now it’s on to the picks.
1) Portugal vs. South Africa – 2 goals or fewer
2) Atlanta Hawks @ Philadelphia 76ers – Philadelphia
3) Baylor vs. San Diego State – San Diego State
4) Chicago Blackhaws @ Montreal Canadiens – Montreal
Analysis
1) Portugal has been in a bit of a slump lately. They were beaten 6-2 by Brazil in an international friendly. Aside from that they have scored 1 goal in 4 matches in international competition. South Africa has done much better against African competition, going 3-0-0 in defeating Equatorial Guinea 1-0, Ghana 2-1, and Cameroon 3-2. They lost to Chile 2-0 but then defeated Norway 2-1. So 80% of Portugal’s games going back to October have gone under and they’ve scored 0.6 goals per match and allowed 1.4 goals per match including the 6 goals Brazil tagged on them, while 80% of South Africa’s games have gone over while scoring 1.2 goals and allowing 1.2 goals.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) This game is being played in Madison Square Garden. Baylor shoots the ball better, from three point range, from the free throw line, and in general. They make more three pointers than San Diego State, get more blocks and have a higher adjusted points rating. The Aztecs have a greater rebounding margin, their opponents shoot lower percentages from the field than Baylor’s do, they have a higher assist to turnover ratio, have a greater turnover margin, get more steals, commit fewer fouls, and come up with fewer empty possessions. Both teams play 7 to 8 men, with Baylor starting two seniors, two juniors, and a sophomore with two seniors in the rotation off the bench. San Diego State starts four seniors and a sophomore, with a junior, a sophomore, and a freshman in the rotation off the bench. Lomars, at 7 feet, could give the Aztecs hassles as their tallest player is 6’8". San Diego State will need to play good man-to-man defense to stop Baylor’s three point shooting and will want to force turnovers. Baylor will want to use their athleticism to get easy baskets around the rim and play inside-out to get open jump shots. If Lomars gets into foul trouble it will enable the Aztec forwards to score around the rim much easier, but they should be looking to attack in any case.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) Cristobal Huet has a lower goals against average (GAA) and a higher save percentage than Carey Price of Montreal. Montreal is 4-3-3 in their last 10 games and Chicago is 4-4-2. Montreal is 2-1-2 at home recently, while Chicago is 1-3-1 on the road. Both teams lost their previous game. Montreal lost their previous home game and Chicago has lost their last 4 road games. Montreal is a -115 favorite in Vegas.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
My next pick was the Rangers over the Devils. The first period was scoreless, but in the 2nd the Rangers broke loose with three goals. The Devils turned up the pressure and started taking more shots but Henrik Lundqvist made saves on all 38. The Devils grew frustrated in the 3rd and were unable to make a run with at least one player in the box after the 10 minute mark. The Rangers continued their recent dominance over Brodeur and the Devils with a 3-0 victory.
My final pick of the day was Oregon State. They came out with their zone defense and jumped out to a 7-0 lead. They were up by as much as 11 in the first half but UTEP made a small run to make it 35-29 at the half. Oregon State started the second half strong as well and were up by as much as 21 before UTEP made a run again. The Miners got the deficit down to 3 with under 5 minutes to go behind the play of Randy Culpepper, Stefon Jackson, and Arnett Moultrie. Oregon State was 50% from the free throw line, but turned it around at the end to extend their lead. A couple of missed jumpers from Jackson and some more free throws from the Beavers and Oregon State pulled out the victory at home, 75-69. Now it’s on to the picks.
1) Portugal vs. South Africa – 2 goals or fewer
2) Atlanta Hawks @ Philadelphia 76ers – Philadelphia
3) Baylor vs. San Diego State – San Diego State
4) Chicago Blackhaws @ Montreal Canadiens – Montreal
Analysis
1) Portugal has been in a bit of a slump lately. They were beaten 6-2 by Brazil in an international friendly. Aside from that they have scored 1 goal in 4 matches in international competition. South Africa has done much better against African competition, going 3-0-0 in defeating Equatorial Guinea 1-0, Ghana 2-1, and Cameroon 3-2. They lost to Chile 2-0 but then defeated Norway 2-1. So 80% of Portugal’s games going back to October have gone under and they’ve scored 0.6 goals per match and allowed 1.4 goals per match including the 6 goals Brazil tagged on them, while 80% of South Africa’s games have gone over while scoring 1.2 goals and allowing 1.2 goals.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
3) This game is being played in Madison Square Garden. Baylor shoots the ball better, from three point range, from the free throw line, and in general. They make more three pointers than San Diego State, get more blocks and have a higher adjusted points rating. The Aztecs have a greater rebounding margin, their opponents shoot lower percentages from the field than Baylor’s do, they have a higher assist to turnover ratio, have a greater turnover margin, get more steals, commit fewer fouls, and come up with fewer empty possessions. Both teams play 7 to 8 men, with Baylor starting two seniors, two juniors, and a sophomore with two seniors in the rotation off the bench. San Diego State starts four seniors and a sophomore, with a junior, a sophomore, and a freshman in the rotation off the bench. Lomars, at 7 feet, could give the Aztecs hassles as their tallest player is 6’8". San Diego State will need to play good man-to-man defense to stop Baylor’s three point shooting and will want to force turnovers. Baylor will want to use their athleticism to get easy baskets around the rim and play inside-out to get open jump shots. If Lomars gets into foul trouble it will enable the Aztec forwards to score around the rim much easier, but they should be looking to attack in any case.
Confidence: W1 streak or less
4) Cristobal Huet has a lower goals against average (GAA) and a higher save percentage than Carey Price of Montreal. Montreal is 4-3-3 in their last 10 games and Chicago is 4-4-2. Montreal is 2-1-2 at home recently, while Chicago is 1-3-1 on the road. Both teams lost their previous game. Montreal lost their previous home game and Chicago has lost their last 4 road games. Montreal is a -115 favorite in Vegas.
Confidence: W2 streak or less
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