May 12th, 2009 Picks

And the losing continues. I really wish I'd taken Rashard Lewis the other day, and Delonte West today would have been a good one. Fortunately it looks like a number of good props on the board tomorrow. Today I lost with Rajasthan Royals as they had a terrible game batting and lost by 53 runs. Then I lost with Middlesbrough who were thoroughly dominated and only scored one by virtue of a Newcastle United own goal. After that I passed on the Cleveland Indians to take the Pens. It was a close game but the Penguins gave up two goals in one minute of the 3^rd period leading to overtime. Once again the team I picked was not the team who scored in the OT. My final pick was the Washington Nationals. With two outs already Fred Lewis hit a routine pop fly to left field but Josh Willingham ran too far forward and it landed behind him. That allowed two runs to score and Daniel Cabrera proceeded to walk 4 straight batters, walking in two runs. His reliever, Kensing, proceeded to walk a third run in before retiring the side. Without those 5 runs the score was 7-6 in favor of the Nationals, but alas they could not escape their own sloppy play. So on to the picks.

1) Kings XI Punjabi vs. Mumbai Indians – Mumbai
2) Burnley @ Reading – Reading win
3) Boston Bruins @ Carolina Hurricanes – Carolina
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles – Tampa Bay
5) St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Pittsburgh
6) Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies – Los Angeles
7) Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics – Boston
8) Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins – Detroit
9) Carlos Lee vs. Todd Helton – Helton runs, hits, and RBIs
10) Cincinnati Reds total hits vs. Dan Haren strikeouts – Haren strikeouts
11) Detroit Red Wings @ Anaheim Ducks – Detroit
12) Kansas City Royals @ Oakland Athletics – Oakland
13) Ryan Zimmerman's Hit Streak: Reaches 30 Games vs. Ends at 29 - Reaches 30 games
14) Luis Scola pts. vs. Los Angeles Lakers win margin – Lakers win margin

Analysis
1) Kings XI Punjabi currently lie 1 point above Mumbai Indians in the tables with 5 victories to 4 victories and 1 washout for the Indians. These two teams met earlier in the tournament with Kings XI Punjab winning 119/8 to 116/7. Tendulkar, a world class South African cricket player and considered one of Mumbai's top batsmen, scored 1 run in 6 balls before getting out. Dumini recorded one of his league leading 4 half-centuries but it was not enough with Mumbai batting poorly all around. The Hindu online have a nice preview on this match. They note that Tendulkar has been inconsistent batting and Harbhajan Singh has not been bowling as well as expected. One of the best previews on the match comes from CricInfo. Both teams are coming off of solid victories. Mumbai Indians just defeated Royal Challengers Bangalore 157/2 to 141/7. With only two wickets they had only 4 batsmen for all 20 overs. Duminy and Rahane each recorded half-centuries and their bowlers were just economical enough. Kings XI Punjabi are coming off a nail-biter victory over Deccan Chargers, 169/7 to 168/5. They recorded the winning runs with one ball remaining. They received strong contributions up and down their order with 5 batsmen having a strike rate over 100. The strike rate is simply runs divided by balls multiplied by 100. The Indians have solid bowling, and it will be strengthened further if Zaheer Khan can pass his late fitness test. Kings XI Punjabi have more batting strength along their order but do not have stars like Dunimy or Tendulkar. Since Kings XI have so many potentially strong batsmen the Mumbai bowlers will need to be economical, i.e. avoid giving up fours and sixes. With Mumbai relying on three or four batsmen for their run production Kings XI will want to put a premium on strike bowling. Kings XI Punjabi are slightly favored, but I like Mumbai to limit their run production and am counting on Tendulkar and Rahane to have a high strike rate.

2) Burnley travel to Madejski Stadium to take on Reading for the 2^nd leg of their English Championship League promotion semi-final. Burnley lead 1-0 in aggregate after scoring a late penalty kick in the 1^st leg. The first leg displayed little of the free flowing, attacking, style of football these clubs are known for. Andre Bikey was sent off for Reading in injury time and will be serving a four-match suspension for his behavior afterwards. Kevin Doyle received a knock for Reading, and he is still a major injury doubt for today's match. The Royals are facing a number of other injury concerns as well, with Chris Armstrong, Graeme Murty, and Ivar Ingimarsson still out. James Harper and Leroy Lita trained but are not yet fit, though the Reading Chronicle see Lita and David Mooney fighting for a spot as substitutes which could help Reading's attack late in the match. Chris Eagles suffered a knock for Burnley in the first leg, but Owen Coyle is confident he will figure in the second. Burnley will be at full strength then, and Reading will have major injury concerns, but Reading, having played in the Premier League the past two seasons, have had the money to build a large squad with quality reserves. SkySport carry a preview on the match and they favor Burnley to advance, if not win the leg outright. Bettingzone agree, giving Burnley a fantastic chance of winning, considering the odds on them. Many books have Reading as 10/11 favorites, which comes out to about 50%, and Burnley at 7/2 with the draw at 9/4, or about 21.3% and 28.7%, respectively. Those odds must be based off of each sides form over the season, where Reading scored 40 goals at home and conceded only 17. Reading have not won at home in their past 8 matches there, however, and Burnley have been strong down the stretch. In all honesty Burnley should be able to secure the draw, but I am putting faith in Reading regaining their form in a must win match against a strong opponent.

5) The Pittsburgh Pirates try to stem a flood of losses after they lost their 8^th straight to the New York Mets 8-4. In that losing streak are two losses at St. Louis, with one loss coming to Wellemeyer and the other loss coming with Zach Duke pitching. That does not bode well for the Pirates as Wellemeyer and Duke face off for the second time this season. In the first matchup Duke got the better of the two, throwing for 6¹/₃ innings and allowing 3 runs, 1 of them earned, off of 5 hits. Wellemeyer gave up 12 hits resulting in 5 earned runs in 5 innings pitched, and the Pirates won the game 7-4. Wellemeyer has had a few other similar performances this season, but he has been solid in his previous two starts. He pitched against Pittsburgh on the 7^th for 7 innings, giving up 2 earned runs on 4 hits in a 5-2 victory for St. Louis. Duke's last start was a loss against the Cardinals, where he gave up 6 hits and 4 earned runs in 5¹/₃ innings. Both teams have been batting a bit below average in their last three games. The Cardinals have a .243 batting average and .411 slugging average while the Pirates are batting .248 and slugging .366 in that time so there's no saying either team is due to have a poor or grand performance at the plate. I think Zach Duke is not likely to have two consecutive poor outings, and Wellemeyer is likely to have a bad start after two solid outings. If that happens the Pirates will need their bullpen to get back to their opening form for the season where they had people talking about how much they'd improved. After 8 straight losses the Pirates are due for a win, and Duke is the pitcher to deliver it to them. With the batting favoring the Cardinals it should be a close one either way.

6) Clayton Kershaw gets the start for the Dodgers tonight against Chan Ho Park for the Phillies. Kershaw does not have the best numbers for this season, with a 4.91 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in his first 6 starts. He had two games in which he was absolutely rocked, pitching for 9 innings with a 15.00 ERA and 2.44 WHIP against the Astros and the Rockies. In the other 24 innings he's pitched he has a 1.13 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, Cy Young numbers. He is young, so he could come out tonight against the strong bats of the Phillies and give up another 5 or 6 runs before the game is half over, but I think he will continue to be the ace he's developing into. Chan Ho Park is in his 16^th season in the Majors and has had an inauspicious start to this one. He's given up 20 earned runs in 5 starts though the offense has bailed him out more than once in getting back the runs he's given up. Park is coming off his first truly solid start of the season, where he pitched for 6 scoreless innings, giving up a single hit against the New York Mets. The Phillies have had a difficult time at the plate in their past three games with a .194 batting average, though guys like Werth, Rollins, and Utley have not left them hanging when it comes to long balls. The Dodgers have been OK at the plate with a .277 batting average in their past 3 games, but have found the fences a bit further than they remember since Manny Ramirez was suspended. I'm thinking Park will have a fairly good game, but still give up 4 or 5 runs before being relieved, and the Phillies will not be able to come back in this one against a very good Dodgers bullpen.

9) Below are a couple of line graphs that compare the proportion of games Carlos Lee and Todd Helton have had with 1, 2, 3, etc. runs, hits, and RBIs. The top graph shows their numbers from the 2008 season and this season together. The bottom graph shows this season's numbers alone. One thing that is apparent is that Carlos Lee rarely had a game without a hit, run, or RBI in 2008, but has been going without more often this season. One can also see that Todd Helton has fewer big games, with 4 or 5 runs, hits, and RBIs with more games at 2 or 3. Overall this season Helton has gotten 3 or more runs, hits, and RBIs in 41.1% of his games. Carlos Lee has gotten 3 or more in 47.3% of his games. That would favor Carlos Lee in this matchup, but the pitching here favors Todd Helton a great deal. Based on their numbers from the past two seasons Paulino could be expected to give up 2 more runs in 6 innings than Jiminez. The Rockies' batting numbers are stronger overall and they have scored more runs per game, with 4.9 compared to 4.2 runs for the Astros. Finally, the Rockies' relievers have put up better numbers and I think could be fairly expected to give up fewer hits, runs, and RBIs than their counterparts from the Astros. Although Lee has been more likely to rack up the numbers I think Helton will be more likely to in this game.
10) The Cincinnati Reds started the season out slowly at the plate but have really found their groove since then. They have recorded 9 hits or more in their past 6 games and it's clear from the timeline below they have been averaging more and more hits as the season has gone on. Obviously that trend cannot continue and I think their 3 game average is about to drop from around 10 hits per game. As for Dan Haren, he has been having a good season, averaging 7.3 strikeouts per game. In 2008 and 2009 he had 19 of 40 gamse with 7 or more strikeouts. That's very close to half of his starts and I think he'll get at least 7 strikeouts in this game. The question is whether the Reds will have 7 or fewer hits. It would be on the low end of total hits for the Reds, but I figure they are seriously due for a poor game. Honestly, however, if you want to hedge your bets the Reds total hits is the better pick.
14) The Los Angeles Lakers got embarrassed by the Houston Rockets in Game 4. Without Yao Ming most people figured the Lakers would just be too much for the Rockets, who won Game 1 of the series in L.A. mostly due to the 7'6" center's efforts. It was exactly the opposite as the Rockets went up big early and never looked back. The Lakers had almost no intensity on the defensive end and the Rockets took advantage of that. Even with the Lakers playing poorly on defense Luis Scola only scored 11 points. Without Yao Ming in the lineup Scola has averaged 17.5 points this season. I have to think that with Gasol and Odom in the lineup Scola will score 12 or fewer points, especially with Los Angeles sure to amp it up on defense. The Lakers have beaten Houston three times in L.A., by 12, 13, and 29 points and I think they will win by at least 12 again.

May 11th, 2009 Picks

Oh man, my 5 streak went down the drain as I followed the herd and took the Lakers. I mean I knew the Rockets could play competitively without Yao or Mutumbo, but I thought the Lakers would at least play a tiny bit of defense. Magic Johnson put it best when he said it was embarrassing for a Lakers team to put forth that kind of defensive performance.

I avoided Rashard Lewis afterwards, NBA having shafted me and all, and took the Tampa Bay Rays. Papelbon was a whiz after allowing batters on 1st and 3rd with no outs. He struck out Carlos Pena, who found it prudent to swing the bat with the count 1 and 3. Upton and Crawford fared no better, getting balls when they rested the bat and strikes when they swung it. Bitterness aside the Red Sox did well to get 3 runs off of Garza and their relief pitching was 100% solid. Ah well, on to the picks. It's only going to get better.

1) Deccan Chargers vs. Rajasthan Royals – Rajasthan
2) Middlesbrough @ Newcastle United – Middlesbrough win or draw
3) Washington Capitals @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Pittsburgh
4) Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians – Cleveland
5) Delonte West vs. Josh Smith – West pts. and ast.
6) Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets – New York
7) Vancouver Canucks @ Chicago Blackhawks – Vancouver
8) Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks – Denver
9) Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Cincinnati
10) Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants – Washington

Analysis
1) Hyderabad Deccan Chargers and Rajasthan Royals are tied in the standings with 5 wins apiece and the Chargers with a game in hand. You can find the standings for the Indian Premier at www.iplt20.com. Deccan lost to Rajasthan on May 2nd, the last time they played. It was a very close game, however, with Rajasthan winning by 3 wickets with 2 innings, out of 120, left. Since then Rajasthan have continued their good form, winning by 78 runs over a Kings XI Punjab team who have allowed 138 runs per match so far this season. They also won by 7 wickets with a full 30 innings remaining over Bangalore Royal Challengers. Deccan Chargers have continued to lose a series of close games, most recently by 3 wickets with 1 inning remaining to the same Kings XI Punjab team Rajasthan beat so soundly. As usual Cricinfo have a terrific preview of the match. Another nice preview can be found at The Hindu. The consensus seems to be that Rajasthan have superior bowling ability and that will give them the edge in this match. If Deccan are to win they will need big performances from Gibbs, Gilchrist, and especially Symonds with Dwayne Smith being tied to his West Indies side for a test match. You can check each sides homepage for stats and news by clicking on their logos. I think Deccan Chargers have a good shot to win this match, they should not be losing so many matches so closely, but I will go with the team with the better recent form. Of course, we all know how quickly teams can go from hot to cold in baseball, and I expect it's much the same in cricket.

2) Widely considered one of the biggest relegation battles of the season and one of the most important Tyne-Tees 'derbys' ever. Both Newcastles United and Middlesbrough would catch Hull City for the last safety position in terms of points, though Middlesbrough would need a 2-0 victory to catch Hull in terms of goal differential. Still, both teams are battling to avoid relegation and I expect they will give it their best. Both teams have been in rather poor form recently, with Middlesbrough going 1-1-3 in their past 5 matches, and 0-0-5 in their past 5 away matches. Newcastle United are 0-2-3 in their past 5 matches at home, and overall with one of those draws being against Everton. There is a good preview from goal.com who predict a 1-1 draw out of this match. The EPL webpage also carries a preview of the match. They point out the injury concerns and suspensions for each side very clearly. Middlesbrough is missing captain Pogatetz and Riggott on defense, and Newcastle United is missing Joey Barton at midfield, Enrique on defense, and Ameobi at forward. The odds on a Newcastle United win are around 45.8% to 47.4%. The draw gets the next best odds, around 27.3% to 28.6%, and a Middlesbrough win around 24.7% to 25.8%, though the injuries to Riggott and Pogatetz hurt 'Boro's chances. If I had to guess the score it would be 0-0, a draw.

4) Both the White Sox and the Indians are coming off of poor series, with the White Sox going 1-2 against Texas and scoring 4 runs in those three games and the Indians going 0-3 against Detroit while scoring 3 runs. Both teams batted under .200 and slugged under .225 in those series. The starting pitching for tonight's game is cause for hope in both teams. Gavin Floyd has an ERA of 6.29 and a WHIP of 1.75 this season and is coming off a 6 run, 6 hit, 5 inning outing against the Royals. Carl Pavano has a 6.61 ERA and 1.53 WHIP this season, but has been doing rather well lately. His first start of the season put his numbers in a hole when he pitched 1 inning and gave up 9 runs against Texas. In his past 13¹/₃ innings pitched he's given up only 4 runs on 11 hits. Cleveland and Chicago have each enjoyed success against the opposing pitcher, with Chicago batting .268 in 41 at bats against Pavano and Cleveland batting .323 in 62 at bats against Floyd. With both teams due to rebound in the hits department I would give the advantage to Cleveland who have better overall batting numbers this season than the Sox and who have a pitcher on the mound who has been successful recently. Their bullpen won't help out any, but I think they'll have a large enough lead after 6 to get the win.

5) The Cleveland Cavaliers look to sweep the Atlanta Hawks and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. It's nearly assured with the way the Cavs have been playing in these playoffs and so the matchup today pairs Delonte West's points and assists on the road against Josh Smith's points at home. Looking at the two it appears to be a very even matchup. Delonte West has averaged 14 points and assists on the road during the season and through the playoffs while Smith has averaged 15.8 points at home. Looking at their numbers facing the opposition, however, the advantage goes to Delonte West with their numbers being switched. In Atlanta this season West has had 14, 16, and 14 points and assists, while Smith has had 12, 8, and 18 points against the Cavaliers at home. Looking at their histograms it appears that each player is about as likely to score above or below their average as they are to score right at their average. If Josh Smith puts in an inspired performance in this elimination game he should win easily, but Delonte West has been pretty steady in netting 15 assists and points. It's very close, so bet on Smith if you believe he will pull out his best game of the year against Cleveland tonight.

8) The Denver Nuggets are also looking to sweep their opponents, the Dallas Mavericks. Game 3 ended with the Nuggets winning after a controversial finish, where Antoine Wright attempted to foul Carmelo Anthony intentionally. When the foul was not called Anthony continued to get in position and sink a game winning three-pointer with 1 second remaining. The Dallas Mavericks played their guts out in that game, with strong defense helping the Nuggets along to 6 of 24 shooting (.250) in the first quarter. They did a terrific job playing with the Nuggets on the fast break, limiting their chances at open layups or dunks. It would be understandable if the Mavericks came out a bit deflated and were unable to match that intensity from Game 3, but that wouldn't befit a playoff basketball team. The Mavericks should come out with just as much, if not more intensity that the Nuggets will be hard pressed to match. We all saw what happened to the Lakers when they played the Rockets without Yao Ming, and they weren't even in as secure a position with the series 2-1 instead of 3-0 as it is here. Still, I think the Nuggets will play better offensively than they did in Game 3 and that should at least partially make up for the drop off in defense I see coming from the Nuggets. What it adds up to is another close game that will come down to the wire. I have Denver winning here by putting faith in their killer instinct. If they drop off on the defensive end by much they won't be able to pull off another miracle win like they did in Game 3. If you think the Nuggets will be satisfied with a series win in Denver in Game 5 then you would do well to take the Mavericks here.

10) The Washington Nationals still have the worse record in baseball, but after wins against the Cardinals, Astros, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks are only a game or two behind Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Colorado, and Oakland. A big part of their recent success has been a surge of offense from Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn, and Cristian Guzman. For the season the Nationals are batting .274 and slugging .438 which is significantly better than the Giants' numbers, .247 batting and .354 slugging. San Francisco is 2-1 in their last three games, and even though they have been batting well they really haven't been able to get any extra bases out of their hits. They will be facing Daniel Cabrera who has a 4.85 ERA and 1.82 WHIP so far this season. Cabrera has a tendency to walk batters and it gets him into trouble and keeps him from going past 5 innings many times. I can see the Giants finding some long balls against Cabrera and scoring 4 or 5 runs before Cabrera is relieved before the 6th inning. The big question for this game is which Randy Johnson will show up. He pitched against Colorado in his last two starts, pitching 7 scoreless innings in one start and then giving up 7 earned runs in 5²/₃ innings in his very next start. If Johnson shuts down the Nationals it will be a win for the Giants, but if Zimmmerman, Dunn, and Guzman can swing at the right pitches the Giants will find themselves in a difficult hole to climb out of. Even if Johnson does not give up 7 earned runs, if he is unable to pitch late into the game the Nationals will have the advantage batting against the bullpen.

May 10th, 2009 Picks

1-0-0 today, and I'll consider myself beyond lucky to have gotten it. After I passed on Kenny Perry, Fulham, Tiger Woods' 69 or worse third round, the Rays, and the Braves I knew I had to get one before my picks started to go south, so I took the Denver Nuggets. It was brutal watching their performance in the first half, with so many shots of every kind just refusing to fall. It was a tad heartening to see them actually up 3 at the half, but I had a feeling they were on a path to defeat.

The second half was a close fought battle all the way, but it appeared the Mavericks had momentum on their side, especially after Jason Terry's late three put them up four points. Carmelo Anthony made a dunk with 28 seconds remaining, and Nowitzki followed it with a miss and Denver got the rebound with 6 seconds left. Out of the timeout they ran an isolation play for Anthony who nearly lost the ball while moving to the right wing. Antoine Wright appeared to foul Anthony but the whistle was not blown and 'Melo followed through with a go-ahead three pointer with a second left! Dallas missed their catch and shoot opportunity and the Nuggets won Game 3 106-105.

After that result I knew I'd better stay away from any of the other matchups. So on to the picks.

1) Ernie Els vs. Geoff Ogilvy – Els cards a lower front 9 score
2) Chelsea @ Arsenal – Arsenal win
3) St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds – Cincinnati
4) Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers – Chicago
5) Alex Cejka vs. Rest Of Field – Cejka wins the tournament
6) Juventus @ AC Milan – AC Milan win
7) Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels – Los Angeles
8) Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets – Los Angeles
9) San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers – San Francisco
10) Ryan Getzlaf vs. Johan Franzen – Getzlaf goals and ast.
11) Carolina Hurricanes @ Boston Bruins – Carolina
12) Ray Allen vs. Rashard Lewis – Lewis pts.
13) Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox – Tampa Bay

Analysis
1) Geoff Ogilvy has been having a very good Tour this year. He’s made the cut in all 10 events he’s participated in and has two wins already on his way to making over $3 million. Ernie Els has been fairly impressive in his own right, making the cut in 11 of 12 events participated in, but with only two top 10 finishes to his credit. The two events Els finished in the top 10, the WGC Accenture Match Play tournament and the Mercedes-Benz Open, happen to be the two events Ogilvy has come away the winner. Results-wise then Ogilvy has been the better golfer this year. A quick look at Ernie Els’ stats and Geoff Ogilvy’s stats shows Ogilvy has a slightly better scoring average and a fairly large advantage in putting average. He also averages one more birdie per round than Els. The one stat where Els has an advantage is driving accuracy and that has held true in this tournament, with Els driving 59.5% of his fairways through three rounds and Ogilvy driving 47.6% of his. On the front 9 Els has been better too, with 8 birdies, 2 bogeys, and 1 double bogey compared to 6 birdies and 5 bogeys for Ogilvy. Els has also had a lower putting average per green in regulation in this tournament. Since 2001 Els has an average front 9 score of -0.3, and a median score of even par in 29 rounds at Sawgrass, though he’s carded 2 under par more often than any other score. Geoff Ogilvy has an average score of even par and a median score of -1 in 21 rounds at Sawgrass since 2001. Since 2005, however, Els has been a bit better, with an average score of -0.4 and a median score of even par in 19 rounds while still carding 2 under par more often than any other score. Ogilvy has an average score of +0.5 and a median score of even par, while carding 1 under par most often in 15 rounds. Ogilvy has had 7 of those 15 rounds at even par or better on the front 9, while Els has 13 of 19 rounds at even par or better. This will be only the 4^th time in 8 tries Ogilvy has made the cut at TPC Sawgrass, where his previous final round front nine scores have been even par, -2, and +3. This will be the 7^th time in 8 tries Els has made the cut, with his final round scores being even par, -2, -4, -1, +1, and -2. The historical performance only slightly favors Els, but I’ll go with the player who has done better on the front 9 this weekend and has had the more accurate drives.

Ogilvy has bogeyed the first and third holes shown above the past two rounds each. Els double bogeyed the middle hole last round. Click on the image for a Readers Digest tour of TPC Sawgrass.

2) Chelsea visit the Emirates Stadium to face Arsenal with both teams coming off of disappointing Champions League exits. Disappointing for Arsenal because of their poor overall form, and disappointing for Chelsea because their superior form was not enough to overcome a single goal after 183 minutes of shutting the opposition out. Arsenal will want to regain some of their form which has seen them go undefeated in Premier League play against Manchester United, Chelsea, and Liverpool so far this season. Chelsea will be looking to put the past behind them and play with the same form and added composure. Here is a preview from SkySports which foresees both Arshavin and Drogba starting for this match. The Daily Mirror, a British tabloid, had five analysts make predictions with three calling for a win by Arsenal, one a win by Chelsea, and one a draw.They point out Arsenal have won only twice in 13 previous matches against Chelsea in any competition. Goal.com offers a 2-2 draw as a prediction. Then there is a great preview with a number of trends from BBC News. Notably, Chelsea has not had much success in the Premier League against the Big Four, with only a single draw to go along with a string of losses thus far. Finally, the Daily Telegraph offers a short preview. They highlight the matchup between Theo Walcott and Ashley Cole and have neither Drogba nor Arshavin in each team's probable Starting XI. I have to give Arsenal the advantage at home with Almunia and their defense conceding fewer goals at the Emirates than Cech and Co. have conceded away from Stamford Bridge. Based on that I computed odds of 38.5% for an Arsenal win, 30.9% for a Chelsea win, and 30.6% for a draw. SkyBet has fractional odds that convert to 37.9% for an Arsenal win, 32.9% for a Chelsea win, and 29.2% for a draw. The online books cataloged by livegoals.com have Chelsea's odds a couple of percentage points better at the expense of Arsenal's odds. Chelsea really has appeared to be the better side recently, but there is a lot of history that suggests Arsenal will get the result here.

3) The Cincinnati Reds look to complete a 3 game sweep of the visiting St. Louis Cardinals today with Edinson Volquez on the mound. Volquez started out the season a bit rough against the Mets and the Brewers. Since then he's recorded 27 terrific innings, allowing 4 earned runs and 9 hits total. He does have a tendency to walk a large number of batters, but his high ground out-to-fly out ratio, over 1.20, helps him get out of jams. The Reds' recent string of success is also due to strong hitting. In their past three games, all victories, they have batted .330 and have a slugging average of .543, which is about as good as it gets in the Majors. They will attempt to maintain that level of offense against Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has done well for the Cardinals, racking up a 3-1 record with a 4.08 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in his first six starts of the season. He is coming off a poor performance against the Phillies in which he pitched for 6 innings and gave up 6 earned runs off of 9 hits. The Cardinals have also been slumping at the plate, with a .237 batting average and .318 slugging average in their last three games. I imagine the Reds will hit worse than they have been, and the Cardinals a bit better, but not too much so with Wainwright still allowing hits and Volquez limiting the Cardinals' return to normalcy.

6) AC Milan have been playing incredible football lately, having overtaken Juventus for 2^nd place in Serie A. Their last 5 matches have been wins, outscoring their opponents 13 to 1, including a 3-0 defeat of 7^th place Palermo. Juventus have been going the opposite direction recently, having not won a match since March, a 4-1 thrashing at AS Roma. Since then they have suddenly been unable to keep the opposition out of the net, racking up a string of 4 draws and a 2-3 loss away at Genoa. Two of those draws were at home against relegation clubs Lecce and Chievo Verona. Both teams have their fair share of injury concerns and you can see a list of them in this terrific goal.com preview. Nobody has had trouble recently scoring on Juventus, so the main concern for A.C. Milan is the health of their second string keeper Nelson Dida. If he is unable to play then their third stringer, Zeljko Kalac, would be slotted to make his first start of the season. Dida has been named to the squad and you can see the other Rossoneri who have been called up at Milan's homepage by clicking on their logo. Based on the overall form for the season I would give AC Milan a 46.6% chance of winning, or about +115 on a money line. Based on each team's form form their previous 10 matches I would put AC Milan at 52.3% or about -110. The big questions here are whether Dida or Kalac will be in goal for AC Milan, and whether Juventus will continue their poor form of the past month.

7) The Kansas City Royals were beginning to look like they had truly improved from last season, going 8-1 from the end of April into the beginning of May, before hitting a major road black in the Los Angeles Angels. Including their 3-1 victory over Washburn and the Mariners the Royals are 1-2 while scoring just 4 runs in their last three games. They've only managed to bat .180 and at .213 their slugging percentage has been atrocious. The Royals will start Kyle Davies on the mound, who started well, but has also been having problems lately. He started out decently, pitching 6 or 7 innings and yielding three earned runs or so, nothing too terrible. Since then he has pitched 15 innings, giving up 23 hits, and 16 earned runs. He has walked 8 batters, which is not bad, but has only struck out 4. One of those games was a 5 innings stone which the Royals won, showing how important their batting has been to their success. He will certainly need run support against the Angels who have found plenty of offense without Vlad Guerrero behind Napoli and Matthews, and even Figgins and Izturis. Kansas City may be able to get that support off of Shane Loux who has been an off-and-on pitcher this season. He's on at the moment, however, with a couple of 1 run, 5 hit, performances most recently. I think Loux will aid in continuing the Royals' woes and the Angels will find themselves up early. With their bullpen starting to perform well it's a lead they should keep.

9) Starting for the Giants tonight is Tim Lincecum, the freak of nature. He's fairly diminutive compared to many pitchers out there, but his stuff is about as nasty as it gets. Still, he's young, and as you can see to the left even Lincecum gets rocked for a home run here and there. In 85 at bats against Lincecum the Dodgers have a batting average of .235 and a slugging average of .329, so while Lincecum slows them up, and can shut them down, they can also hit off of him. I have a sneaking suspicion that Lincecum will be having a difficult time tonight in this game. Not so difficult that he is relieved early in the game, but difficult enough that the Giants will have a hard time providing him with enough run support. San Francisco is batting .252 and slugging .330 in their last three games, and were shut out yesterday against the Dodgers. Jeff Weaver has thrown 9 scoreless innings so far this season, but before he left the majors for a year in 2008 the Angels' lineup had his number. In 86 at bats they had 3 home runs, slugging for .453 and batting .256 off of Weaver. I'll pick with Lincecum to hold the Dodgers' heads in the dirt, but let me go on record as saying I have a bad feeling about this one.

12) I'll let the graph do most of the talking. The curves represent a Poisson distribution of points based on each players' average number of points. One of them is based on their points on the road, for Ray Allen, and at home, for Rashard Lewis. The second curve is based on their average number of points against the opposition, Boston or Orlando, from both home and road games. The bars are a histogram of games with a certain number of points, with the second set of bars being for the games against the opposition. Ray Allen's average includes his 51 point game but was left off the graph to fit everything in. Allen scores more points on the road than Lewis does at home but Rashard Lewis averages more against Boston than Allen does against Orlando. I think Lewis represents a mismatch for whoever the Celtics use to defend him, and Courtney Lee can do a good job against Allen and that is why you see a disparity in their points production.

May 9th, 2009 Picks

Well, I suppose I could have added 3 wins to my streak with Perry, the Yankees, and the Lakers, but there were quite a few other picks that would have killed my streak. I mean, Sergio Garcia loses after missing a 7 foot putt on #18, the Cubs lost after leaving the bases loaded and giving up a 2 run homer the next inning, Contreras remains broken and the White Sox are demolished (for the most part) by the Texas Rangers. So, 0-0-0 it was for me yesterday, and today looks to be much more accommodating. And on to the picks.

1) Padraig Harrington vs. Kenny Perry – Perry cards a lower front 9 score
2) Aston Villa @ Fulham – Fulham win
3) Tiger Woods’ 3rd Round Score: 68 or lower vs. 69 or higher – 69 or higher
4) Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox – Tampa Bay
5) Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies – Atlanta
6) Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks – Denver
7) Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals - Washington
8) Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins – Seattle
9) Tony Stewart vs. Kyle Busch – Busch has a better final position
10) Mo Williams vs. Mike Bibby – Bibby pts. and ast.
11) Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels – Kansas City
12) Chicago Blackhawks @ Vancouver Canucks – Vancouver

Analysis
1) Padraig Harrington has had more overall success at TPC Sawgrass, finishing in 2nd place in 2003 and 2004, while Kenny Perry has never finished higher than 3rd although he’s played at The Players’ every year, but one, since 1990. Since 2005, however, Harrington has struggled a bit more, missing the cut twice and finishing no higher than 52nd. Kenny Perry has only missed the cut twice in the past 20 years of playing this event and finishing in 15th place last year. This year Kenny Perry has been the more successful golfer by a ways. Harrington has missed the cut in 4 events already this year and has yet to finish in the top 10 of any of the 10 events he’s participated in. Kenny Perry has played in 12 events and missed the cut once while finishing in the top 10 six times, including a playoff loss at the Masters and a playoff win at the FBR Open. Not surprisingly the money leader of the two is also the statistical leader in most categories. You can view Kenny Perry’s stats and Padraig Harrington’s stats by clicking on their names or at pgatour.com. Since 2001 Harrington has played 30 rounds at TPC Sawgrass and has hit even par or better on the front nine 16 times. His average score has been +0.3 and his median score has been even par. Since 2005, however, his average score is +0.9 and his median score is one over par, while his scores have ranged from -2 to +6. From 2001 till now Kenny Perry has played 28 rounds at TPC Sawgrass, carding front 9 scores of even par or better in 20 of those rounds. His average front nine score has been -0.2 and his median score is even par. Since 2005 his average score has been -0.3 and while his median score remains at even par. The image below is what these two players will be looking at as they begin their rounds, hole #1.
3) In 2001 Tiger won this event and had 3 rounds 68 or lower. In the 24 rounds he's played on this course since then he's had 3 rounds 68 or lower. In 2007 his fourth round was a 67 after he carded 75, 73, and 73. You have to go back to 2004 to find another round of 68 or lower for Tiger on this course. His third round was a 68, and his other three rounds were 75, 69, and 73. His first round score was 71 and his second round score was 69, the improvement largely due to an improvement in his putting. He also saw a drop in his driving accuracy in the second round, which his short game can more than make up for, but he risks getting in serious trouble and earning some penalty strokes if he remains inaccurate off the tee. I also think it's difficult to keep a low putting average, so he may miss out on some birdies. He's playing pretty well so far this year, but even when he was the most dominating force on the Tour he rarely carded better than 3 under at Sawgrass. Obviously you have to believe he can do it, but it's unlikely enough for me to take 69 or higher.

4) Scott Kazmir visits Fenway Park to face off against Jon Lester and the Boston Red Sox in a rematch of a game played on April 8^th. Kazmir got the better of that matchup as the Rays won 7-2 thanks to a 4 run 5^th inning. Since then Jon Lester has had a number of decent outings, and one impressive 7 inning shutout while Kazmir followed his first start with a series of strong performances before suddenly becoming a run dispenser in his last two starts, against the Orioles and Twins. Both the Rays and the Red Sox have been hitting the ball well lately. The Rays have a .279 batting average and a .531 slugging average in their last three games, meaning they've been getting their average number of hits but the ball has been flying off their bats. In their last 3 games the Red Sox have a batting average of .337 and a slugging average of .528, which isn't too unusual for them at Fenway. In 248 at bats against Kazmir the Sox are batting .254 and slugging .423 so he can be expected to put a damper on their recent success, assuming he can dial back in to his form at the start of the season. In 127 career at bats the Rays are batting .291 and slugging .457 against Jon Lester so I expect them to be able to score some runs against Lester. The real wild card here is Kazmir. If he's back to form the Rays will win, but if he is lobbing balls over the plates the Red Sox's hot bats will carry them to victory. So, how do you think Lester will do?

5) Javier Vazquez is starting for the Atlanta Braves, and he's been a fairly good pitcher this year. He strikes out 11.6 batters per 9 innings pitched, strikes out over four times as many batters as he walks, has a low 1.27 WHIP, and before he gave up 3 two run homers in his last start had given up only one home run in 32 innings. In 152 at bats against Vazquez the Phillies' batting order has recorded a .211 batting average and .414 slugging average, well below their averages this season. Joe Blanton, on the other hand, has recorded a 6.84 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his 5 starts this season. He is coming off a very solid 6 innings against the St. Louis Cardinals in his last start, allowing only 4 hits and 1 earned run. I'm inclined to think Blanton's performance in that game was due to a combination of the Cardinals' slumping bats, as well as a return to his form from season's past. The Atlanta Braves are hitting the ball fairly well lately, around their season averages of .256 batting and .401 slugging and I think they'll do at least that well against Blanton. The Phillies could very well take a lead and win with hits off of Vazquez near the end of his pitch count, or off of the Braves' bullpen, but overall it's more likely the Braves will maintain a lead.

6) Denver is up 2-0 in this series, and are 6-0 against the Mavericks this season. They've already won twice in Dallas, including a two point win the last time they visited. Denver has been phenomenal in this years playoffs, with their 58 point victory at New Orleans, and terrific play in the fourth quarter to close out teams. It seems Denver is an obvious pick in this matchup, but there are some caveats. Aside from that two point loss to the Nuggets Dallas are 17-1 in their last 18 home games. In that loss to Denver the game could easily have gone either way. Dallas was playing well in Denver in Game 2, but the loss of Josh Howard hurt them. Howard is still injured but is expected to play in Game 3. Then there is the fact that after dominating New Orleans for two games, and taking a 16 point lead in the first quarter of Game 3, Denver ended up losing on a Saturday afternoon to the Hornets. Dallas has been more competitive than the Hornets so Denver can ill afford to slacken their efforts this time around. I think Dallas has a very good shot at winning this game, but I also think Denver will not make the same mistakes they made against the Hornets. If Josh Howard cannot fully take advantage of his athleticism I have to give the edge to the Nuggets to go up 3-0 in this series.

8) Two aces who have had their troubles this season, in Felix Hernandez for the Mariners and Francisco Liriano for the Twins are matched up in today's game. Hernandez is coming off a 6 inning loss to the Texas Rangers, after giving up 6 hits and 2 home runs, resulting in 6 earned runs against him. It's not the first game he's been hittable this season. In his third start the Oakland Athletic's got 7 hits and 5 earned runs off of Hernandez. Still, King Felix is someone who is more than capable of holding a team to 1 run for 7, 8, or 9 innings. In 91 at bats the Minnesota Twins have only hit one home run, and batted .209 against him. Francisco Liriano had a few shaky starts to his season giving up 17 earned runs in 21²/₃ innings, and the Twins losing all four games. He's been much better since then, allowing 4 runs in his last two starts, leading to Minnesota victories. In 92 at bats the Seattle Mariners are batting a pitiful .185 and slugging .208 against Liriano. I would expect both pitchers to do well today and for both teams to struggle to score. That means it could come down to one hit, followed by a walk, and a sacrifice fly or two. The Twins are the much better team offensively, with Mauer, Cuddyer, Crede, and others providing powerful bats. In their last three games the Twins are batting .344 and slugging .505. Compare that to Seattle's three game averages of .230 batting and .280 slugging. I would expect Minnesota to have a poor game at the plate in any case, and with Hernandez pitching that is much more likely. While Liriano should shut down Seattle completely I think they have a better chance of getting a couple of hits leading to a run or two. Seattle's bullpen has also been better in not giving up home runs. They've allowed 0.06 per inning pitched, twice as efficient as the Twins' bullpen who are allowing 0.12 home runs per inning pitched. I actually like Minnesota to win this game, but put more faith in Hernandez's ability to avoid a poor game.
10) The Cleveland Cavaliers have dominated this series, and have done so with a total team effort. LeBron James has obviously dominated, but the other Cavaliers players have been outplaying their counterparts on the Hawks. It's going to be difficult for Mike Bibby to score and get assists when the Hawks are held under 90 points, so it appears as though Mo Williams is the obvious choice here. Looking at the charts above one can see that on the road Williams averages the same number of points and assists as Bibby averages at home. The major difference that's apparent from the histograms is that Bibby is much more consistent. He has a large number of games clustered right around his average. Mo Williams is a bit all over the place, with a moderate number of games below his average, above his average, and in between. Of his 43 road games Williams has 17 games with 15 or fewer points and assists, while Bibby has only 7 with 15 or fewer. Williams also has 15 games with 25 or more points and assists, while Bibby has 12 such games. I have to give the advantage to the player who is less likely to have a low number game, and that would be Mike Bibby.

12) We all know that Zach Greinke is going to lose a game at some point this season, and that he's going to get shelled. The Los Angeles Angels are as good a candidate as any to be the team that does the shelling. In 87 at bats against Greinke their batting order has a combined .299 batting average and a .552 slugging average. Joe Saunders is not a bad pitcher either, with a 3.29 ERA and 1.20 WHIP so far this season he's mostly missing the strikeout numbers to be considered an ace. The Royals have done well against Saunders in the past, however, with a .303 batting average and .576 slugging average in 33 at bats. Personally, I think Saunders has some more batters to face before it can be concluded the Royals have him figured out, but it's safer to say the Angels have Greinke's number. Still, there's no reason to expect Greinke to have his first bad start except that for every shutout or sub 1.00 ERA game he throws means he's more and more likely, but I'm inclined to go with the pitcher who has yet to show friendly stuff to the batters he's faced.

May 8th, 2009 Picks

1-0-0 yesterday with Luongo fending off enough shots to win pretty easily over Khabibulin 26 to 14. The Canucks only took 15 shots on goal in three periods and overtime. The Blackhawks took 3 or 4 shots more than the Canucks in each period.

I couldn’t bring myself to pull the trigger on the morning baseball picks though. Ah well, at least I didn’t get shat upon with Donald. That was pretty much Poulter shooting the best round of his life at Sawgrass and Donald was just average save that triple bogey on #2. What happened there? Did he just try and hit the green in two and end up in the drink? One way or another it’s on to the picks.

1) Jim Furyk vs. Kenny Perry – Perry cards a lower front 9 score
2) Sergio Garcia vs. Zach Johnson – Garcia cards a lower 2nd round score
3) Rio Ave @ Guimarães – Guimarães win
4) Washington Capitals @ Pittsburgh Penguins – Washington
5) New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles – New York
6) Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic – Boston
7) Joey Logano vs. Brad Keselowski – Keselowski has a better final position
8) Boston Bruins @ Carolina Hurricanes – Carolina
9) Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers – Chicago
10) Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox – Chicago
11) Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets – Los Angeles
12) Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels – Kansas City

Analysis
1) Since Kenny Perry finished 2^nd at the Masters and Jim Furyk finished 10^th Furyk has generally been more successful. Although he missed the cut at the Verizon Heritage he was able to follow that with an 11^th place finish at Quail Hollow and is currently in 14^th at The Players' Championship. Perry finished at even par in the Zurich Classic and is now in 79^th at The Players'. Both players finished at even par on the front 9 in the first round. Furyk ended up playing much better on the back 9, with his putting especially making a difference. Since 2001, in 27 rounds at TPC Sawgrass, Furyk has shot even par or better 17 times on the front nine. His average front 9 score is +0.2, his median score is even par, and he's shot anywhere in between -3 and +4. Kenny Perry has also played 27 rounds in that time, shooting even par or better on the front nine 19 times. His average front 9 score is -0.1, his median score is even par, and he's shot anywhere in between -4 and +3. There have been 23 rounds in which both players golfed. Furyk had the better score 7 times, Perry 10 times, and they had the same score 6 times. You can find Kenny Perry's stats and Jim Furyk's stats on pgatour.com, as well as their first round stats by clicking on their names on the leaderboard. There are a lot of signs pointing towards Furyk as the pick here, but I'll go for the player with the historical odds here. You can see a hole-by-hole tour of the course by clicking on the Sawgrass clubhouse below.

2) Sergio Garcia is the defending champion at The Players Championship. He finished the first round six strokes behind the leader, Ben Crane, who shot a very fine 65. That hasn't stopped Garcia before, who finished two strokes over par after the cut in 2007 before coming back to take 2nd place. Zach Johnson was one stroke worse, carding an even par 72 in the first round. It's an improvement from last year when he shot a 76 in the first round, followed by a 79 before being cut. Johnson was accurate in the first round and found the green in regulation on 13 holes, but his putting average of 1.923 on those holes sunk him. Sergio Garcia hit only 9 holes with a chance to make birdie, but his terrific short game and putting allowed him to get 5 birdies anyways. Since 2001 Garcia has played 31 rounds at TPC Sawgrass and has carded par or better 18 times. His average score has been 71.6 and his median score is 72. Johnson only started playing this event in 2005 and in the 15 rounds he's played has only made par or better 7 times. His average score has been 72.8 and his median score, 73. You can check out Johnson's superior stats on the Tour this year and compare them with Garcia's respectable numbers. It's hard to believe Garcia can avoid staying out of trouble at Sawgrass with his aggressive play, but that's been the case for the most part the past 8 years.

3) Rio Ave is a team battling to keep their spot in the Portuguese Super Liga. Currently, they lie 2 points clear of relegation with 3 matches remaining. They visit Estádio D. Afonso Henriques to take on 8^th place Vitória de Guimarães and it will be difficult for them to get a result having scored only 3 goals in 13 away matches this season. With 9 points left to earn Guimarães have been eliminated from UEFA Cup qualification after making it to the Champions League qualification stage last season. As a traditionally strong club in the Super Liga they have their pride left to play for, and will wish to finish this disappointing season strong. Rio Ave has been in good form recently, winning at home against Trofense and away at Naval 1^o Maio, and drawing at home against S.C. Braga who are currently 5^th in the tables. The victory against Naval 1^o bodes well for Rio Ave as Naval had one more win at home than Guimarães and have the same number of goals scored and conceded as Guimarães as well. Vitória de Guimarães have had a difficult time at home recently, having played F.C. Porto and Sporting Lisbon recently, both losses. They've done better against the bottom half sides, winning 3-1 against Belenenses and 1-0 against Naval 1^o Maio. Both teams are at full strength for this match and you can click on either team's logo to see their `convocados' for this match, the list of players named to the squad. Most European books have their true odds set at around 46% for Guimarães to win, a draw at 28%, and Rio Ave winning at 24%. I calculated similar odds, but with the draw at 33% and Rio Ave winning at 19%. Overall Guimarães should have the quality to win 1-0 or 2-0, but if Rio Ave are tenacious in the backfield this could be a 0-0 draw.

5) The Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees met on opening day with C.C. Sabathia facing off against Jeremy Guthrie. Sabathia gave up 6 runs and 8 hits to the Orioles before being relieved after 4²/₃ innings and the Yankees were down 6-1. The Orioles went on to win the game 10-5. Since then the Orioles have gone 11-17, though they are 2-1 in their last three games, scoring 12 runs while batting .253 and slugging .518. The Yankees are 13-14 since that opening day fiasco, but are currently on a 5 game slide. In their past 3 games they have batted .266 and slugged .431 while scoring 12 runs and giving up 19. Ever since they came back, down 9-4 to the Angels going into the 8^th, to win 10-9, the Yankees' bullpen has been unable to hold on to a lead. I'm inclined to think that run of bad luck is about to come to an end against a Baltimore team whose bullpen is also apt to give up a lead. Neither Sabathia nor Guthrie have had incredible starts to the season. Both have ERA's around 5.00 and both have WHIP's over 1.35. Sabathia has the credentials to suggest he is a better pitcher than those numbers show, however. That means Baltimore will be less likely to provide Guthrie with the run support he'll require as the Yankees have batted .313 and slugged .583 off of Guthrie in their careers. Oh, and I guess Alex Rodriguez is returning to the lineup for New York, though I highly doubt he'll contribute much on offense or help Teixeira see better pitches in his first game. I just see the roles being reversed from opening day in this game and the Yankees coming out victorious.

6) The Boston Celtics travel to Orlando and attempt to regain home court advantage tonight. Rafer Alston was suspended for one game by the NBA for smacking Eddie House upside the head in Game 2 which leaves Orlando with Anthony Carter and Tyronn Lue at the point guard position. Courtney Lee has practiced with the Magic while wearing a protective mask and I fully expect he'll be on the court for this important game. The loss of Alston should not damage Orlando's aspirations too greatly as Carter and Lue are capable enough at running the offense and neither they, nor Alston, are too likely to slow Rajon Rondo. That matchup will be a big advantage for the Celtics throughout the series. Boston will also need Glen Davis, Kendrick Perkins, and Brian Scalabrine to step up on both ends of the court. Scalabrine especially can be a boost with his three point shooting. The Magic have to be happy that Hedo Turkoglu looks to be returning to top form since they'll need every thing they've got to win against Boston. If Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis are feeling it from behind the arc and Dwight Howard around the basket the Magic should win, but I think Boston's good game trumps theirs. Paul Pierce must stay out of foul trouble and have a good game. Orlando has the home court advantage, obviously, but Boston is skilled enough to fire on all cylinders on the road.

9) Picking the Cubs here is putting some faith in Ryan Wells and the rest of the Chicago bullpen to pitch well against the Brewers' batters. I expect them to continue returning to 'mortal' status after that 20 hit outing. I also like the Cubs' batting to remain strong.

10) Honestly, even I'm not sure how I can take the White Sox here with Jose Contreras on the mound for them. Matt Harrison pitched 6 scoreless innings in his last start against the White Sox, though that was against a lineup without Jermaine Dye, Thome, or A.J. Pierzynski. Contreras, on the other hand, has an 8.31 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP. In his one start against the Rangers, last Saturday at Rangers Ballpark, he gave up 7 earned runs on 7 hits in 3¹/₃ innings. The Rangers are batting .310 and slugging .500 in their last three games, but that's about average for them. They also have career batting averages of .311 and .492 slugging in 61 at bats against Contreras. I guess I'm just not quite ready to believe that Contreras is that bad of a pitcher and he will throw some scoreless innings in the near future. I imagine Harrison will need some run support tonight against the White Sox, who are batting pretty well lately, and if Contreras can just limit that for even 5 innings I like the White Sox bullpen to complete the victory.

11) The Los Angeles Lakers will be without the services of Derek Fisher for tonight's game after he was suspended by the NBA for charging Luis Scola and following through with a forearm shimmy. That will hurt Los Angeles as they were already thin at the point guard position, and with Jordan Farmar struggling so far in these playoffs. Fisher also provided some timely three point shooting. On the positive side Farmar and Shannon Brown should be able to keep up with Aaron Brooks more easiliy. The Lakers could really use a good game from Andrew Bynum, but he's shown a tendency to wilt when challenged on defense, which is what the Rockets will do. As for the Rockets, they will be fired up for this game to maintain home court and to show Kobe and the Lakers they will not be intimidated. If Pau Gasol can slow down Yao, and Lamar Odom and Kobe can get some support from their bench the Lakers will win this game, but you have to like the Rockets' chances here.

May 7th, 2009 Picks

2-0-0 day, and Lord was it a close one. I stuck with Barçelona even though they were hurting in the backfield. It looked bad very early on, as Barçelona's game plan was supposed to involve dominating the possession and giving few shots to Chelsea. In the 9^th minute Frank Lampard attempted a cross that caroomed off of a Barça defender straight towards Michael Essien. Essien caught the rebound mid-air and launched a rocket that dropped right, bouncing off the bottom of the top beam and into the goal. It was an incredible goal, and Chelsea took the 1-0 lead. Barçelona was doing well controlling the ball, but they could not quite make the final play, with Dani Alves booting his crosses across the end line all day and Chelsea keeping a man between Cech and the ball at all times.

This continued through the second half, and Chelsea were probably robbed of opportunities to go ahead by more with the officials refraining from calling penalties in the box. At the 65^th minute Eric Abidal was sent off for a mild touch and it was all but over for the Catalans. Impressively, Barçelona played some of their best football while a man down, especially on the defensive end. Gerrard Pique, standing in for Puyol and Marquez provided much of the spark. As the match entered injury time Barçelona made a final push. Essien attempted a clearance, but Lionel Messi got a foot on it and crossed to an open Andrés Iniesta who booted it over Cech from 20 yards out. Stamford Bridge erupted, and Barçelona held on to advance to the finals, with the aggregate score 1-1, and Barça holding a 1-0 advantage on away goals.

My second pick was the Los Angeles Lakers' winning margin. It looked like it would be an easy win in the first quarter as the Lakers scored 39 points and took a 14 point lead. Houston's bench would not let the Rockets fade, as Carl Landry and Kyle Lowry played intense basketball, forcing turnovers and grabbing offensive rebounds. It was a tie game at the half and Ron Artest had 5 field goals. The Lakers came out strong behind Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol in the third as they regained a 9 point lead. Artest had 8 field goals, but mid-way through the fourth quarter was ejected for arguing a loose ball foul called on him. The Lakers finished strong to win by 13, 111-98, and Artest finished with 8 field goals made. And so on to the picks.

1) Luke Donald vs. Ian Poulter – Donald cards a lower front 9 score
2) Atlanta Braves @ Florida Marlins – Atlanta
3) Padraig Harrington vs. Steve Stricker – Stricker cards a lower first round score
4) Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals – Kansas City
5) Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres – San Diego
6) Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds – Milwaukee
7) Josh Smith vs. Mo Williams – Williams pts.
8) Roberto Luongo vs. Nikolai Khabibulin – Luongo more saves
9) Vancouver Canucks @ Chicago Blackhawks - Vancouver
10) Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox – Chicago
11) Penn State vs. Southern California – Penn State
12) Aaron Hill vs. Bobby Abreu – Hill total bases
13) Detroit Red Wings @ Anaheim Ducks – 5 goals or fewer
14) Detroit Red Wings @ Anaheim Ducks - Detroit

Analysis
1) TPC Sawgrass is widely considered one of the more difficult courses on the PGA Tour. You can get some information on slope ratings at tpc.com and there’s a nice graphical tour of the course there. From 2003 to 2008 Luke Donald has played 18 rounds at Sawgrass, carding even par or better on the front 9 eight times. His median score is 1-over par, and his average score is 0.1-over par. He’s carded as low as 5 under, and as high as 4 over. Ian Poulter has played 18 rounds on the course as well, from 2004 to 2008. He’s carded even par or better on the front 9 eight times and also has a median score of 1-over par. His average is 0.6-over par, and his range of scores has been from 3 under to 4 over. You can check out Donald’s stats here, and Ian Poulter’s stats here. What jumped out at me was Donald having a lower putting average per green-in-regulation (GIR) by 0.076, a better scoring average by 0.82 strokes, and a higher birdie average by 0.33 per round. Keep in mind the scoring average is weighted by slope ratings and other factors to normalize for the differences in the courses played. I think each player is likely to be within -1 to +1, so it will be close, but with Donald having proven he can shoot 5-under par I have to give him the edge.

3) Traditionally, Padraig Harrington has done better than Steve Stricker at the Stadium Course at Sawgrass. His median score in 28 rounds is an even par 72 and he's shot 16 of his 28 rounds at even par or better. Stricker's median score is 74 in 16 rounds, only 5 of which have been even par or better. His best round was a 3-under 69, while his worst has been a 6-over 78. It's funny because Stricker has done better on that island par-3, birdying it 4 times and hitting bogey or worse 3 times in 16 rounds, while Harrington has only managed to score birdie three times, and hits bogey or worse 5 times. It's the rest of the the course giving Stricker more trouble. In the past three years neither golfer has been able to score better than 70. Right now Stricker has been the much better player on the tour, winning nearly $2 million dollars in 10 events, whilel Harrington is having to make do with just over $300,000 from 9 events. You can see Harrington's stats and Strickers' stats and come to your own conclusions. Either take the more successful golfer or take the golfer who's done better at Sawgrass, historically.

5) Dan Haren faces off against Chris Young in this game of low powered offenses. The Diamondbacks have scored 6 runs in their past three games while the Padres have scored 9 runs. Both teams are batting under .240 on the season and slugging under .390. Dan Haren would appear to be the far superior pitcher as he's started the season with a 1.47 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP. He's been a great strikeout pitcher with his split-finger fastball, striking out 9.8 batters per 9 innings and 6.7 batters for every one he walks. Chris Young has been solid only about half the time this season, with three terrific games shutting teams down, and two awful games, against the Phillies and the Rockies, where he gave up 6 or more runs before the end of the 4^th inning. After each of those shellings Young came back with good games, once recording 7 shutout innings and most recently limiting the Dodgers to 1 run in 7 innings at Dodger Stadium. The Padres' batting order has done well against Haren in their careers, posting a combined .320 batting average and .467 slugging average. Still, Haren hasn't always been this nasty so I would put 3 or 4 runs as the most he could possibly be expected to concede. With the run support the Diamondbacks have been providing that could be 3 or 4 runs too many.

6) The Milwaukee Brewers have been absolutely crushing the ball lately. They have scored 30 runs in their past three games by batting .336 and slugging .522 in 113 at bats. Yesterday they faced Cincinnati Reds ace Bronson Arroyo and put 9 runs on the board before he could even get his fourth out. They can be expected to plummet back to Earth, but probably not against Micah Owings. Owings has a 4.84 ERA and a poor 1.61 WHIP to start the season. In his first start of the year he faced Looper and the Brewers and did well to limit them to 6 hits and 4 earned runs in 5 innings. The Brewers ended up with 9 runs after shelling the Reds' bullpen. Braden Looper is starting for Milwaukee and he has done well. With a 3.10 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in his first 6 starts he has been a steady presence on the mound. His second start of the year was against the Reds, against whom he picked up his first win of the season. The Reds got 6 hits and 3 runs off of Looper in the 6 innings he pitched and his bullpen did well to maintain their lead. Milwaukee is sure to disappoint their fans in the near future, but I don't see it being tonight.

7)

Josh Smith Vs. Mo Williams - Points

Above are graphs showing Josh Smith's actual point production in away games with the expected distribution overlaid, and the same for Williams, but using data from his home games this season. One can see that Williams averages about 4 points more per game at home than Smith does on the road. One can also see the Josh Smith has scored 13 points 9 times on the road and that he's a wide-ranging scorer; he's had a single game scoring 10, 14, 19, 22, etc. points. Mo Williams' point totals are more bunched up; in 41 of his 45 games he has scored between 11 and 24 points. It's worth noting that Williams' chart leaves off games of 43 and 44 points, though those numbers were included in his average. Head-to-head Smith won the prop in Game 1, outscoring Williams 22 to 21. It was the first time this season Smith had scored more than 12 points, in Atlanta or in Cleveland. It was also the lowest number of points Williams had recorded against Atlanta all year. In Game 2 I expect Joe Johnson, Flip Murray, and Zaza Pachulia to get back on track and contribute more, leading to Smith scoring less than 20 points, which he has done in 25 of 35 road games. Mo Williams should be able to run circles around Mike Bibby and I see him scoring at least 20 points, a feat he's accomplished in 19 of 43 home games.

8) Any goalie worth starting in the NHL is going to make a save on over 90% of the shots taken at them. During the season both Roberto Luongo and Nikolai Khabibulin had a .920 SV%, though during the playoffs Luongo has made saves on 93.5% of the shots taken at him, while Khabibulin has only made saves on 89.7% of shots. With 30 shots on goal that's really not a huge difference, so for the most part this prop is really about which team will take more shots on goal. The Chicago Blackhawks trail the Vancouver Canucks 2-1 in this best of 7 series and they will be heading back to Vancouver after tonight, so the Blackhawks really need to win this game. One might think that would lead them to take more shots, but that has not always been the case. In a do-or-die Game 7 the Blackhawks took only 18 shots on goal against Calgary in winning 4-1, and Khabibulin made 43 saves. Looking at the chart to the side one sees the Blackhawks average about 5 more shots on goal. One can also see that there is significant overlap between 25 to 40 shots taken between the two teams, but in an exceptional game the Blackhawks take a large number of shots, while Vancouver takes a small number of shots. With Luongo being better in the playoffs, and Chicago taking many more shots on goal in this series, and during the season, Luongo is the better pick.

11) Here's a brief preview of the NCAA Men's Volleyball Final Four, being held in Provo, Utah. Penn State are the defending champs, but USC play in the best conference in the nation and are more used to playing at high altitudes (Provo is at 4551 feet above sea level).

12) Aaron Hill and Bobby Abreu are two sluggers for the Toronto Blue Jays and the Los Angeles Angels, respectively. One his having a fantastic season, batting .366 with 7 home runs while the other is just good, batting .343 with 0 home runs. In terms of total bases Aaron Hill is dominating, averaging 2.5 per game compared to Abreu who is averaging 1.6 per game. Jered Weaver is pitching for the Angels, and he has given up two doubles and a single in 5 at bats to Aaron Hill. Robert Ray is pitching for the Blue Jays, his second start. While he's never faced Abreu he did well in his first start. In the minor leagues he was a good strikeout pitcher with a WHIP of 1.37 through 351¹/₃ innings. The chart to the right shows the proportion of games in 2008 and 2009 each player had a certain number of total bases. It's apparent that Abreu is more likely to go hit-less while Hill is much more likely to hit a double or two singles. I don't see a home run being given up to either of these batters and without that the odds are squarely on Aaron Hill for this one. Of course, betting on Hill is also a bet on a minor league pitcher having two solid starts in a row in the Majors.